[THE DIGITAL FACTORY] Nassim Nicholas Taleb on Antifragile
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- Опубліковано 19 чер 2024
- Nassim Nicholas Taleb, best-selling author of Antifragile and Black Swan, discusses the properties of systems that can handle disorder. See more sessions: bit.ly/3lmrb8d
#thedigitalfactory #antifragile #nassimtaleb
Best-Selling Author of The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable Nassim Nicholas Taleb spent 21 years as a risk taker (quantitative trader) before becoming a researcher in philosophical, mathematical and (mostly) practical problems with probability.
Taleb traveled the conventional route of education to real-life and theory to practice in inverse sequence from the common one, moving from the practical to the philosophical to the mathematical. He started as a trader, then got a doctorate in mid-trading career; he wrote literary books before writing technical papers, and his work became progressively more technical and formal with time.
Taleb is the author of a multivolume essay, the Incerto (The Black Swan, Fooled by Randomness, Antifragile, and Skin in the Game) covering broad facets of uncertainty. It has been published into 41 languages. In addition to his trader life, Taleb has also written, as a backup of the Incerto, more than 70 scholarly papers in mathematical statistics, quantitative finance, statistical physics, philosophy, ethics, economics, & international affairs, around the notion of risk and probability (grouped in the Technical Incerto).
Taleb is currently Distinguished Professor of Risk Engineering at NYU's Tandon School of Engineering (only a quarter time position) and scientific advisor for Universa Investments. His current focus is on the properties of systems that can handle disorder ("antifragile"). Taleb refuses all honors and anything that "turns knowledge into a spectator sport."
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In May 2022, Formlabs hosted The Digital Factory conference in Boston. It brought together global leaders in manufacturing, engineering, product design, and more with the goal of discussing the future of manufacturing.
Global manufacturing continues to transform into an increasingly automated and digitized global network, and the last two years have further accelerated that transition.
This transition has introduced new questions about the future of manufacturing, so we brought together some incredible speakers to address them, including:
-Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Author, The Black Swan and Antifragile
-Carl Bass, Former CEO, Autodesk
-Dr. Nadia Shouraboura, Executive, Amazon, Ocado
-Max Lobovsky, Co-Founder and CEO, Formlabs
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🔵 Check Out Other The Digital Factory Sessions: bit.ly/3lmrb8d
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I'm a musician and I've only just realized that despite feeling, "insecure" in many ways that realistically that really the underlying approach I've fallen into is, "Extremistan;" I might write 1000 songs in my life. If I write one, "Wonderwall" it will justify the other 999 and that's not considering that I get a significant amount of satisfaction from each, "miss." The trick is embracing the, "long haul" and not employing fragile, "I need this to work for this to work for this to come to fruition..." strategies to create an income.
#Economics #For #Creatives.
His book "Fooled by Randomness" was a game changer.
Simply language for mathematical concepts = a real genius, and teacher, unlike some using high powered terms
1) a big reason why you should break big goals into small steps. Because size is related to antifragility.
2) the more you like uncertainty(disorder/timek means the more antifragile you are. 11:45
3) if u give less resources(aka stress), they upregulate(grow). 28:30
That's the only part I don't totally agree with Taleb: aren't there a lot of small countries without sources that are not like Singapure? So why didn't all these countries achieve the same success?
Nassim Taleb is a legend !!
His writing changed my thinking forever.
How is that? Was it the book Antifragile?
Nassim should be a stand up comedian 😂every line or two he has a joke 😂 the man is a legend.
youtube is the best university in history, and its free! :)
Upregulation 😮 when you upregulate yourself as a reaction to outside or inside stressors, that’s how I understand this beautiful concept 😃
Loved his book❤.
*"Fooled by Randomness" *
Suitcase on weels werent discovered earlier because there were no flat roads. Try using suitcase with weels on stone roads (sett paving) road.
Really? No flat roads until
1970??
I guess everything was covered with shag carpet until ‘85 😂
That luggage bag example is too good
I think I now have a solid hypothesis of what causes autism, thanks to this speaker!
lmaooo. he is very all over the place
37:23 excellent point
Fragil is an instable system, antifragil can be asimptotic stable system. Our body tries to optimize every time. Stressors show the direction of the optimisation. An system that is not optimising itself is not antifragil.
The Sioux had suitcase technology without the wheel. A wheel wouldn't have worked. They would use two poles and wrap things up and drag it like a very long single person operated stretcher. It was efficient.. They called it a Sioux-Case. Carried a lot of stuff. We have yet to invent the more obviously ergonomic two-handed design developed on the plains many years ago. Two wheels, two handles. Forward posture. It would improve lifting posture. One handed suitcases on wheels are a snapshot of how we almost get it. We almost get it. Almost. Now just...
😂😂😂
Post tramatic growth..why am I just now learning this .
ua-cam.com/video/e-or_D-qNqM/v-deo.html
Taleb is the GOAT and has the fattest tail of all!
Date of video?
Legend Taleb
Anyone have links or references to the research he mentions about variance in earnings/cash flow and bankruptcy? Thanks in advance
He publishes all of his research and mathematical research
I love all the talebian's phylosophy. Congratulations for such magnific insights. About Singapure, I do think Taleb is not respecting his own phylophy, because when you point the reasons why Singapure is well succeeded, aren't you buring the other loosers countries with the same features of Singapure? Sorry for the bad English, I don't pratice too much. I would appreciate to get an answer, but I understand it's quite difficult! So thanks a lot anyway!
Trauma is good for you...but up to the point! Otherwise, you will break down instead of growing. The real question is, every body will have a different breaking point and we need to know that.
Fascinating biz bankruptcy indicator
Were you saying something? I couldn't hear it due to the deafening drone of the ego.
What products or services improve with use or stress?
What business models that benefit from shocks or disruptions in the market?
Medicine and funeral services. The more old and sick people, the more money is generated. 📈
Is this new?
I pushed an elephant at the zoo yesterday to test its antifragility.
PTGO = Post Traumatic Growth Order?
15:52
Low variance of cash flows is a sign of a failing company.
Low heart rate variation is an indication of health problem.
too smart to follow
I believe that Nassim Taleb is really a genius - just my opinion - but no real mastery of biology ... especialy of epidemies . Viruses are one thing , social conditions an other thing . But as he himself says , it does not matter , you can build beautifully on errors . Especialy pharmaceutical companies .
I am sure he is not a genius - there is a lot of self-referencing and brainstorming in his books. I agree he is not an epidemiologist, and this is where the flaws in his models and his reasoning were really exposed, in 2020 and 2021.
@@GTMarmot well , check any " genius" life and there won't be any genius left . Just meant he was able to show some game changing ideas . And he said the pandemic was no black swan at all .... but didn't understand that the public response ( lock downs , anti virus masks , and mandates for experimental medical technologies ) was a black swan , in as much as this had never happened before and did cost trillions .
@@thierrylandrieu7441 OK, I will respect the fact that we don't see the same thing. I think he just shorted everything with leverage in the 80s, using expiring puts. He lost manageable amounts of money consistently, then got lucky and made it big in the stock market crash of 1987. This is not genius - this is just luck. Since then, the idea of barbell, assymetry, extremistan, fragility, black swan, etc. has been a lot of sophistry to justify getting lucky with expiring puts (only available to a trader) and likening them to insurance. He is very far from a genius. Learns languages without needing to know grammar, etc. This is why no model of his works.
@@GTMarmot you are more knowledgeable than me in financial matters , that seems pretty sure . Lucky he certainly was . I mainly apply his ideas in biology .... and in the explanation of the fact that no models can work out of the very short term in complex systems . And I love when he rants about administration and incompetent use of statistics .
@@GTMarmot he's famous not cause of everything you just mentioned and the money he made in 1987(all just completely lucky, according to you), but because of predicting the recent financial collapse of 2007/2008.
24:58 post traumatic growth 👍
me when i listened to antifragile by le sserafim for the first time
tough crowd.
Is the Russian economy anti-fragile?
upto a point !
Low debt to GDP ratio. I believe that's what allowed Putin to go to war. I also believe that Putin took advantage of the fact that energy prices had gone up post-covid, so yes they are anti-fragile in this regard - they positioned themselves such that they benefited from uncertainty.
@@programmer1840 they're not. they're a desperate , failing state with awful land.
Too reliant on commodity prices
Im sure he has a huge tail
Here is a podcast we did on NN Taleb recently. Worth checking out: ua-cam.com/video/6KiLxIN0rlk/v-deo.html
Disorder bros
Curious of this man's IQ..
IQ is more insightful on the lower bounds than the higher bounds, meaning it tells you more about low intelligence than high.
He wrote a paper in which he proved that IQ is a fraud.
His ideas may be brilliant. His presentation skills are poor.
Taleb is a genius. This interviewer is really really weak.
interesting ideas and a very bright man but very poor presentation
This guy just gives the same lecture over and over. He has surely done it over a thousand times. He makes the most basic points about assymetry of risk and multiplicative/accelerative harms, as if he were dropping pearls of wisdom from the ancients. But there's nothing behind it and all his models turn out to be flawed. One of the most absurd ones is where he "proves" that Covid causes reduction in life expectancy every year.
Till the invention of penicillin, the life expectancy in US was around 40 yrs. After penicillin it jumped to over 65 yrs. With microbes you have less life expectancy, without you have more. SARS virus is a microbe. Even a common cold can reduce your life expectancy if it is often, because when you are I'll, you don't exercise, and overall health declines.
@@Kannot2023 That was not the point that this guy made.
Incorrect
It is obvious that Nassim put little or no effort to prepare for this speech. The guy is super smart but this was a money grab. Disappointing :(
No, you need to listen harder. This is how he writes and delivers any of his talks. If you book taleb this is exactly what you know you get. Its a filter for lazy listeners. 😂
To much russia words here... russia, russia, soviet russia ...:))
Спросите у жалкого раба системы, сколько денег сберегли его соотечественники ,если не слушали его бред,а инвестировали в биткоин,с 2017 биткоин вырос в 25 раз,а на сколько упал ливанский фунт?
он там не живет и в этой валюте деньги не держит. Ты совсем глупенький чтоль? Небось с россиюшки
@@aleks.l394 Он выступал на симпозиуме в Ливане перед своими соотечественниками ,жалкий тупой тип, который живёт на подачки правительственных организаций,а вы научитесь общаться с людьми, корректно без оскорблений.
@@vodilapro6306 я на твоем языке тебе ответил. Видимо твой любимый биточек обругали, вот ты обиделся. Ну тогда лучше конструктивно обьясни. И кстати говоря, на битке немеренное количество людей деньги потеряли, мой сладенький. Вырос то да, а вот сколько заработало...
@@aleks.l394 А как можно адекватному человеку потерять на биткоине,циклы просчитаны ,но в любом случае, ливанский фунт упал, более чем в сто раз и люди слушая этого профессора потеряли биткоин в прошлом цикле падал после пика 2017 ,19400 был на минимуме в декабре 2018 2900 долларов,те хто не продал в 2021 мог продать за 69000 , есть цикличность которая зависит от халвинга,а на счёт черного лебедя Талеба,почему он не говорит о черном лебеди для правительств стран они долгов набрали в три раза больше,чем в природе есть денег на планете Земля.