Also, 5 ⭐ Palafin! And I butchered the math in this video, thanks public school system... 😂 Refer to the comments if you want to know the ACTUAL math! Thanks for correcting me!
You forgot to mention that if you have the sandwich power for raids you get extra extra rewards. I think raid power 2 gets you two additional drops but I know it boost ur rewards form raids. A friend of mine got 7 herbs in one blissy run and it was wild
I dont think raid power sandwiches are good because its for one specific tera type. So you'd have to specifically look for these pokemon AND have the correct sandwich. Raid power sandwiches are more useful during events where the tera type is always the same (ex. 7 star raids), so you will always get the boost in reward drops.@@beastlyword0690
Just to put this out here fro anyone who's curious. The actual odds of getting at least one herba mystica from raids are closer to ~21.5% and ~26.2% for 5 and 6 star raids who have just one herba drop respectively. The ones who drop all 5 herbas have odds of ~72.1% for 5 stars and ~80.7% for 6 stars to drop at least one. I apricate the info on the pokemon who drop this and enjoyed the video.
@@EastsidedTTV If you just want to know for your own information, the way you do it is to find the chance that *NO* herbas drop, then invert it. So first invert the drop rate to find the "no drop" rate. So on a 12% drop chance, there's an 88% chance (1 - 0.12 = 0.88) it won't be what you want. Now you raise it to the power of the number of rolls, so 0.88^10 ≈ 0.2785, so that's a 27.9% chance of getting no herbas. Invert it again to get the likelihood of getting an herba, so that's a 72.1% chance (1 - 0.721 = 0.279) that you'll get at least one HM.
The actual formula for what you're shoinng at 2:40 is 100% - ([Odds of NO Herba Mystica] ^ Chances). Using that formula you get 100% - (97.6% ^10) = 21.57%. It's the same as the classic "odds of getting at least 1 heads when flipping coins" formula (Subtract from 100% the odds of getting tails to the power of the number of coin flips).
For 6-star raids, it looks like for each slot you have a 28/33 chance of not getting an HM. The probability of no hits is then (28/33)^10 ~= 20% of the time. So the expectation is that you will get some HM about every 4 out of 5 raids you do, and the 5th one you won't. Roughly anyway
I did not notice how small the channel was considering how good the quality of the video is. I hope you grow to be seen by way more people. Your videos are amazing ^^
Loved this video! Excited for the tier list! I'm at around 60 raiders trained up and love trying to utilize Pokémon I normally don't use. For my first DLC 2 shiny I got a female litleo! I ended up building a sun team around it.
To calculate the probability of at least herba in a raid, with 2.4% odds and 10 chances, we use the complement rule. The complement rule states that the probability of at least one success is equal to 1 minus the probability of no success in any of the attempts. The probability of not getting herba in one attempt is 1 - 0.024 (since 2.4% is 0.024 in decimal form). The probability of failing all 10 times is (1 - 0.024)^10. Therefore, the probability of at least one herba is 1 - (1 - 0.024)^10. After calculating this, we find the probability of getting at least one herba in 10 chances, with each chance having a 2.4% chance of success, is approximately 21.57%.
This video was super helpful! I'm hoping for another DLC for this game, but doubt that is ever going to happen. Managed to find a shiny Dodrio on my first day of playing the DLC, it almost ran away from me before I realized the green colour.
Aye Alolan Muk Made a massive drop for me. 4 Herbas, 2 Spices, 1 Sweet, 1 Salty. I literally yelled and made my friends upset cause they failed to get any that day.
Very true. Personally, I dont recommend going around your world looking for these raids. But if you have online available, you know which raids you should *try* to join online
the info you're looking for is at 8:07. take a screenshot and you're good. only need to watch the vide if you want the full explanation for why those are the pokemon to focus on
@@EastsidedTTV oh I know and there's nothing wrong with that, I just scrolled to the comments to see if someone had posted the timestamp I was looking for and nobody had. so I did
I think I’ve just been getting incredibly unlucky. I haven’t seen a herba mystica in a while despite using raid power and going after the 6 star moms that drop the most
My first indigo disc shiny was magby the funny thing is that I was talking to a friend about how I keep second guessing my self and like 2-3 minutes later I randomly found one
I found a shiny porygon in a horde and then later that same day I got a shiny minior raid but failed it so I did isolated encounters until I got it again :)
My first indigo Disk Shiny. Me and my friend were just catching Pokémon to complete the Dex when suddenly I noticed a shiny Doduo and caught it. We weren’t specifically going shiny hunting before. But it would be a waste to leave the opportunity out and about
Technically not from the Indigo Disk, but while I was searching for Iron Crown and Iron Boulder, I found a full odds Iron Bundle and not 20 minutes later a full odds Iron Hands.
Simple binomial distribution doesn't work like that. 2.4% 10 times isn't a 24% chance of at least one. It's a 21.57% chance of at least 1. If you ever want to calculate these quickly in future, "simple binomial calculator" is the search term you're looking for.
Not the actually! There is no confirmed DLC at this point. Its all spectulation. The expectation is that there will be a free update to the current game unlocking dokutaro, etc. Not another paid DLC.
@@BlankZone34 the reason why I mentioned that was to illustrate the point that this video will never age. If you’re hunting Herba Mysticas at any point in the future, this video will have all the information you need
Technically 6 stars have a higher drop rate but It’s all numbers! The increase in rates isn’t very high when comparing 5 to 6 star raids. I wish you luck
if only these raids actually showed up bruhh 😭 i be waiting ages for them to show just to get a "you cant join!" or raid flops bcuz of a bad poke mann i wish they let us search for specific pkmn or at least update faster
is it worth going for 5stars as you cant identify it in the map. where as in 6stars, it can be identified easily, and allows you to refresh the tera raids easily?
If I’m solo’ing I tend to just go to the 6 star raids because like you said you don’t know which raids are 5 stars. And you can quickly reset your 6 star.
Also, 5 ⭐ Palafin!
And I butchered the math in this video, thanks public school system... 😂 Refer to the comments if you want to know the ACTUAL math! Thanks for correcting me!
Trying to get the rage engagement 😂
You forgot to mention that if you have the sandwich power for raids you get extra extra rewards. I think raid power 2 gets you two additional drops but I know it boost ur rewards form raids. A friend of mine got 7 herbs in one blissy run and it was wild
I dont think raid power sandwiches are good because its for one specific tera type. So you'd have to specifically look for these pokemon AND have the correct sandwich.
Raid power sandwiches are more useful during events where the tera type is always the same (ex. 7 star raids), so you will always get the boost in reward drops.@@beastlyword0690
@@EastsidedTTVFor the indigo disc 6 stars, did you mean Galarian slowbro or normal? Cause I’ve gotten a lot of herbas from the galarian
Just to put this out here fro anyone who's curious. The actual odds of getting at least one herba mystica from raids are closer to ~21.5% and ~26.2% for 5 and 6 star raids who have just one herba drop respectively. The ones who drop all 5 herbas have odds of ~72.1% for 5 stars and ~80.7% for 6 stars to drop at least one. I apricate the info on the pokemon who drop this and enjoyed the video.
Yeah, you can't just add the odds of independent events as the video creator attempts to do.
I was going to write a similar comment, its good to understand these sorts of things when farming for drops in games.
Yeah the math is more complicated than what I was trying to explain. I'll hit up Dream and hire his astrophysicist to break it down
@@EastsidedTTV If you just want to know for your own information, the way you do it is to find the chance that *NO* herbas drop, then invert it. So first invert the drop rate to find the "no drop" rate. So on a 12% drop chance, there's an 88% chance (1 - 0.12 = 0.88) it won't be what you want. Now you raise it to the power of the number of rolls, so 0.88^10 ≈ 0.2785, so that's a 27.9% chance of getting no herbas. Invert it again to get the likelihood of getting an herba, so that's a 72.1% chance (1 - 0.721 = 0.279) that you'll get at least one HM.
stats majors went straight to the binomial prob calculator
The actual formula for what you're shoinng at 2:40 is 100% - ([Odds of NO Herba Mystica] ^ Chances). Using that formula you get 100% - (97.6% ^10) = 21.57%. It's the same as the classic "odds of getting at least 1 heads when flipping coins" formula (Subtract from 100% the odds of getting tails to the power of the number of coin flips).
What is that background music💀
Nah I just noticed it 💀
Fr wtf😭
Ballin noteblock
Its Ballin but Pokemon B/W! People liked it in a previous video, this time not so much it seems 😅
Forgis on the Jeep 😂
For 6-star raids, it looks like for each slot you have a 28/33 chance of not getting an HM. The probability of no hits is then (28/33)^10 ~= 20% of the time.
So the expectation is that you will get some HM about every 4 out of 5 raids you do, and the 5th one you won't. Roughly anyway
I did not notice how small the channel was considering how good the quality of the video is. I hope you grow to be seen by way more people. Your videos are amazing ^^
Thank you for the kind words! Appreciate u 🥹 enjoy the journey! I have no idea where we’ll end up but we’ll keep pushing forward!
I was listening carefully at what would where saying, until I noticed that the background music is god dam BALLING
Loved this video! Excited for the tier list! I'm at around 60 raiders trained up and love trying to utilize Pokémon I normally don't use. For my first DLC 2 shiny I got a female litleo! I ended up building a sun team around it.
A fellow raider, awesome! And we’re cooking up some Indigo Disk Raid Builds. Expect lots of raids and raiding content 😁
oh i just realised i made a cameo at 0:15 for a split second any way thanks for the guide see you in the next stream east
Ayyy! DK cameo
My first shiny Pokémon in Pokémon scarlet was Dunsparce right before I was going to fight the elite 4
Fantastic guide . Also my first shiny was Cranidos . A shiny ive wanted for years now
Thank you for the kind words! Such a great shiny! Crying in violet 😭
@EastsidedTTV I feel that
Great guide and visual chart!
Thank you! Go get them Herbas 👊
To calculate the probability of at least herba in a raid, with 2.4% odds and 10 chances, we use the complement rule. The complement rule states that the probability of at least one success is equal to 1 minus the probability of no success in any of the attempts.
The probability of not getting herba in one attempt is 1 - 0.024 (since 2.4% is 0.024 in decimal form).
The probability of failing all 10 times is (1 - 0.024)^10.
Therefore, the probability of at least one herba is 1 - (1 - 0.024)^10.
After calculating this, we find the probability of getting at least one herba in 10 chances, with each chance having a 2.4% chance of success, is approximately 21.57%.
Thank you so much. Amazing video
Fantastic video! Clean editing, succinct points, and great run time. Subscribed and excited to see the places you take the channel.
Thank you for the kind words! Appreciate it! Enjoy your stay 😁
that music choice is crazy 💀
My first indigo disc shiny was a full odds shiny Camerupt.
Black shinies >>>
This video was super helpful! I'm hoping for another DLC for this game, but doubt that is ever going to happen.
Managed to find a shiny Dodrio on my first day of playing the DLC, it almost ran away from me before I realized the green colour.
Glad you found it helpful 🥹
Just subbed, good video thanks for explaining so well
Awesome to hear! Thanks for the kind words!
This video made me realize I've never gotten a sweet herba mistica
Youre already too sweet 🤘
Aye Alolan Muk Made a massive drop for me. 4 Herbas, 2 Spices, 1 Sweet, 1 Salty. I literally yelled and made my friends upset cause they failed to get any that day.
I hunted for skarmory and excadrill on day one and got both. Yesterday I found a full odds shiny litten
Bro imma be honest… this was hella helpful, I am so grateful for this🙏🙏 keep up the good work my guy!
Appreciate the kind words! 😁
Super helpful vid dude! Thanks for the info
Thank you! Glad it could help! 😄
Thank you for your tireless work for the community.
Thank you for taking time out of your day to watch my content 😁
the problem is because dens are random your going to spend so much time just trying to find pokemon that give good drop rates.
Very true. Personally, I dont recommend going around your world looking for these raids. But if you have online available, you know which raids you should *try* to join online
@@EastsidedTTV online raids are sorta even worse because most of the time your not getting in or waiting on the refresh timer
yeah joining can be tedious. I guess its a pick your poison situation. Try to join online or run around the map@@redlord4321
ur vid was so helpful! thank you :D
Thank you for the kind word! Appreciate you! 🥲
I use arceus with recover calm mind judgment and acid spray just change the plate whatever the raid is
If that works for you, nice! I play online so I can’t change items freely
I'm keepin my hopes up for another DLC pack. This was helpful.
Thank you Jersey! Appreciate you
It will be a single patch of grass, and have the 3pans, patrat and furfou.
My first Indigo Disk shiny was Rotom, which is funny since I was using Sparkling Power Psychic to try and get Beldum or Metang at the time.
Who was your 1st ⭐ shiny ⭐ in the Indigo Disk?
Galarin slowpoke
Crabrawler
@@Yuji753 great shiny! Which evolution you going for?
Mine was an alolan sandshrew but this morning a shiny dodrio spawned but he just zoomed away and despawned
@@EastsidedTTV slowking
the info you're looking for is at 8:07. take a screenshot and you're good. only need to watch the vide if you want the full explanation for why those are the pokemon to focus on
Yeah that’s what the chapters are for
@@EastsidedTTV oh I know and there's nothing wrong with that, I just scrolled to the comments to see if someone had posted the timestamp I was looking for and nobody had. so I did
Love the music choice lmao 🤣
I think I’ve just been getting incredibly unlucky. I haven’t seen a herba mystica in a while despite using raid power and going after the 6 star moms that drop the most
My first indigo disc shiny was magby the funny thing is that I was talking to a friend about how I keep second guessing my self and like 2-3 minutes later I randomly found one
I found a shiny porygon in a horde and then later that same day I got a shiny minior raid but failed it so I did isolated encounters until I got it again :)
I still need a minor, was unsuccessful my first time :/
@@EastsidedTTVthat’s a mistake you might wanna fix in that wording-
My first dlc Pokemon was trapinch.
first two shiny indigo disk pokemon found without hunting: geodude and alolan geodude
My first indigo Disk Shiny. Me and my friend were just catching Pokémon to complete the Dex when suddenly I noticed a shiny Doduo and caught it. We weren’t specifically going shiny hunting before. But it would be a waste to leave the opportunity out and about
My first shiny Indigo Disk mon was Espurr, which I evolved into a silly meowstic :D
Really amazing and informative video, BUT GOD is the backround music obnoxious
It’s been retired new year new background music
My first Indigo Disk shiny was Duraludon and I used one of the meals in the Blueberry Academy cafeteria to get it. Lucky me?
Technically not from the Indigo Disk, but while I was searching for Iron Crown and Iron Boulder, I found a full odds Iron Bundle and not 20 minutes later a full odds Iron Hands.
The herba is tied to stat and and if highest stat of pokemon is HP it can drop any herba
Lapras was my first Shiny and my first Shiny Starter was Litten
Thank you!
No thank YOU for watching 😁
Technically my first shiny in the dlc was an alolan grimer, but it used memento and KOd itself, the first one I caught was araquanid
My first Blueberry shiny was Flygon about 25 mins after booting it up just chilling with a group of Pyroar
My first indigo disk shiny was litleo! Full odds I was just wandering around and I saw her!! Almost ran by 😂
She probably blended in with the dead grass 😂I’ve gotten 2 female litleos! I still need a male 🙃
First shiny was Alolan Geodude followed shortly by Alolan Diglett
My man did not just do Beheeyem dirty like that, nuh uh
I did though 😈
@@EastsidedTTV that’s cold bruh, Beheeyem’s too beautiful for that
My first one was executor and my second was elekid 😅
You're the GOAT !
No YOU are. Thanks for watching :)
Simple binomial distribution doesn't work like that. 2.4% 10 times isn't a 24% chance of at least one. It's a 21.57% chance of at least 1. If you ever want to calculate these quickly in future, "simple binomial calculator" is the search term you're looking for.
Exeggcute. Don't know if i can make it into the dragon tho. It turned into the psychic one. Now it just sits in the box
I don't got DLC but I got 4 herbas in a 6 star farigiraf first try
You ballin in the background
First ID shiny was Venonat earlier today
2:43 idk if my math is right but it’s a 0.000000000000006% chance
Yeah that sounds about right. I got something like 6 x 10^-17
Ive seen vaporeon raids that drop 10 herbas they are all over at twitch
😂 Yeah those are definitely LEGIT raids!
I did hatch a sobble by accident while trying to get multiple for dex without BP, by I count milcery as my first, found it in the wild
Going for a living dex by chance?
thank you for the video, very helpful. But WHAT TF is that background music my dude?
Don’t worry the background music has been retired for future uploads 😔
First shiny in Indigo disk was a Rhyhorn, and then a Milcery not long after
Congrats on the shinies!
My first Indigo Disk shiny was Doduo
I had a feeling Kingdra would be one of them. 😂
Cant use simple probability addition to get overall probability.
We need to binomial distribution to find right probability!!
Shiny Flygon for me.
Welcoming back Flygon with a shiny form! Love it!
my first shiny was doduo in indigo disk two alolan exeggutors later i got bulbasaur
My first indigo disk shiny was a rhyhorn
Had to skip to 6:09 just to get to the part I ACTUALLY wanted to listen to...
Actually there is a new dlc coming up for a event for a new mythical pokemon for dokutaro, so there is still an dlc.
Not the actually! There is no confirmed DLC at this point. Its all spectulation. The expectation is that there will be a free update to the current game unlocking dokutaro, etc. Not another paid DLC.
@@EastsidedTTV okey man.
@@BlankZone34 the reason why I mentioned that was to illustrate the point that this video will never age. If you’re hunting Herba Mysticas at any point in the future, this video will have all the information you need
Thank you.
No you got it twisted. Thank YOU for watching :)
My first shiny was a aloha gravler
Sneaky song in the background. Nice.
My first shiny in indigo disk was a shiny trumbeak (random encounter)
Trumbeak is on my want list! Congrats
I guess we be Ballin' in the DLC
What's that pretty pop theme playing in the background starting at 5:26 ? It sounds like from the DLC?
Sonia theme from SwSh
@@EastsidedTTV ahhh thank you!! I really like the video and I'm super excited to find those raids for all the Herba Mystica!!🤩
@@channelpointsparty thank you for enjoying :) appreciate it 🥹
Ain’t no way I just got 9 herba mysticas from a 5 star snorlax 🤯🤯
Golett was my first shiny!
Mine was magby!
What a great shiny!
you evolving it to a big pink thang?
what is the backround music could I get the think xD
Link in the description! The first song is: "Dalton Eubank - Ballin But It Almost Sounds Like Pokemon Black And White🤷♀️ "
@@EastsidedTTV oh alright thx bro and you're vid was helpful so thx again.
@@KingZacky357 no thank YOU for watching :)
@@EastsidedTTV Yeah np I needed to know this stuff have a great day or night
my face when i recognised the song in the backround
It’s a banger! Seems to be a divide: some like it and some think it’s stock music 😂
That background music lol
First shiny was venomoth
Ayo background music???? 🤨🤨🤨
Is there a better way to find specific mons or 5 stars other than just going all around the map and hoping?
I’ve got a video in the works going over that exact thing 😁
Thank you! very helpful!
just sub to you now
Thank you! Enjoy your stay!
I only have gotten herba mystica from 5 stars and not a single one from 6 star
Technically 6 stars have a higher drop rate but It’s all numbers! The increase in rates isn’t very high when comparing 5 to 6 star raids. I wish you luck
if only these raids actually showed up bruhh 😭 i be waiting ages for them to show just to get a "you cant join!" or raid flops bcuz of a bad poke mann i wish they let us search for specific pkmn or at least update faster
It was fun in swsh when you could exploit the refresh timer, but I agree in this game it’s a fricken pain 😞
Trapinch Radom encounter
Ok so for some reason im only getting ceruledge raids
I noticed in every 6* I’ve gotten 1 herba every single time!
We need to do a raid stream soon 😁
Yep
You're lucky as hell then.
Link to that Ballin' cover please?
Link in the description!
MA IM IN A EASTSIDE VIDEO( good video)
😉
First two 2 minutes apart shiny beldum and shiny duraludon
Sounds like a great steel type sandwich!
First shiny was finneon but first new one was meowstic
Meowstic is a great shiny!
@@EastsidedTTV both of them yeah, I got a female sinces that’s the outbreak I got
My first melmetal
🤯
We are getting a new dlc tho, something about a peach
no we are not
I can't from the music in the background
Shiny smeargle was my first and it took 7 sandwiches 💀
I’m convinced these Pokémon don’t exist in raids😤
is it worth going for 5stars as you cant identify it in the map. where as in 6stars, it can be identified easily, and allows you to refresh the tera raids easily?
If I’m solo’ing I tend to just go to the 6 star raids because like you said you don’t know which raids are 5 stars. And you can quickly reset your 6 star.
@@EastsidedTTVthanks