Insightful video. Thank you! Couple of comments and questions. 1. Extrapolating quarter TPV for the year is not correct imo, given the seasonality of their custimers. I am not sure what their industry concentration is, but i would assume ecommerce and retail would spike in q4 compared to q1 for example. 2. It might be worth talking about the geographical distribution of their tpv. Is their stronghold only in developed economies or emerging markets as well? In any case, good video and i plan to read up on the company more
Very insightful thank you! Do you have any idea why they´ve taken such a hit dropping from 2700 in 2021 to 1035 today? Financials and processing volume on a positive trend as you mentioned.
Great work! Thank you for this. For my understanding: you expect for the best case scenario at a P/FCF 30x a stock price of 1732 in 2028? (The investment of 1200 (current price) would not even reach the 10% CAGR of the S&P 500 in that case). So investing in Adyen at the current price is too expensive?
I’d agree with that, mostly. I think the thing that could set them apart is finding a way to keep those take rates elevated, or even grow by 0.01% - that’d make them worth investing in at these prices. Of course, they’d have to do that against a market that’s driving prices down. The question to ask when valuing Adyen is “can their features and level of service be differentiated enough to charge more?” Right now I’m in the “maybe” camp.
Insightful video. Thank you! Couple of comments and questions. 1. Extrapolating quarter TPV for the year is not correct imo, given the seasonality of their custimers. I am not sure what their industry concentration is, but i would assume ecommerce and retail would spike in q4 compared to q1 for example. 2. It might be worth talking about the geographical distribution of their tpv. Is their stronghold only in developed economies or emerging markets as well? In any case, good video and i plan to read up on the company more
Very insightful thank you!
Do you have any idea why they´ve taken such a hit dropping from 2700 in 2021 to 1035 today? Financials and processing volume on a positive trend as you mentioned.
Overall I believe these payment processors are under some heat. I believe it is because it seems like the take rate is a race to the bottom
Great content! Keep it up mate.
Great work! Thank you for this.
For my understanding: you expect for the best case scenario at a P/FCF 30x a stock price of 1732 in 2028? (The investment of 1200 (current price) would not even reach the 10% CAGR of the S&P 500 in that case). So investing in Adyen at the current price is too expensive?
I’d agree with that, mostly. I think the thing that could set them apart is finding a way to keep those take rates elevated, or even grow by 0.01% - that’d make them worth investing in at these prices.
Of course, they’d have to do that against a market that’s driving prices down. The question to ask when valuing Adyen is “can their features and level of service be differentiated enough to charge more?” Right now I’m in the “maybe” camp.
Thank you for the reply!