TSLA Recovers, Excellent China Sales, NHTSA’s Special Request
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- Опубліковано 28 сер 2023
- ➤ Tesla stock continues strong run
➤ Market reacts as new economic data is published
➤ Excellent China sales numbers
➤ Project Highland possibly spotted in Europe
➤ Hardware 4 vehicles begin to receive FSD Beta
➤ NHTSA sends special request to Tesla regarding FSD
➤ Tesla plans to add X app to cars
➤ Musk invited to Senator’s AI panel
➤ Megapack pricing discussion
➤ China gasoline usage may have peaked
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Executive producer Jeremy Cooke
Executive producer Troy Cher asaro
Executive producer Andre/Maria Kent
Executive producer Jessie Chimni
Executive producer Michael Pastrone
Executive producer Richard Del Maestro
Executive producer John Beans
Editing assistance by Jasem Ashkanani
Music by Evan Schaeffer
Image(s) and/or footage used under license from Shutterstock.com
Disclosure: Rob Maurer is long TSLA stock & derivatives - Наука та технологія
Great day for TSLA is a understatement!!! Thanks Rob!
With regards to FSD beta and HW4. I'm a software engineer and, to me, the comments Elon made on his drive revealed some information. He talked about updating the weights of the model 'overnight" (paraphrasing). This sounds to me like they are working on updating weights independent from software releases. That would make a lot of sense, because it would mean that they could update the software of HW3 and HW4 cars simultaneously, w/o having a separate release for them. It also means that Elon was indeed talking about the quality of FSD lagging behind, not the software itself
Many believe they've been updating the models between releases for some time now.
Elon meant that the performance of HW4 fsd will lag behind HW3 fsd for 6 months, not that the release is lagging 6 months. So many people misunderstood this
I have a Hardware 4 Austin MY, and YES! I got my FSD Beta Today!!!! Wooohooo!!!!
Same! I was feeling doubly screwed over, as I traded in my FSD M3 19 days before Elon announced the free one-time trade offer. THAT cost me $15K, and yesterday I was thinking I was also not going to be able to use that $15K feature until next year. 😢 Having it on now helps...a little.
@@737smartinoof
Great way to end a Green Day! Rob and Tesla for the win. Thanks.
Hey Rob, friendly suggestion/request:
When you show the weekly China insured units chart, I think it would be very visually helpful to put a highlighting box around the bars from the first week through the current week of the current quarter, then put boxes around the corresponding weeks from the previous 3 quarters. If that makes sense. Thanks for your invaluable work.
One of the highlights of my day!
Thanks to Rob!
The Chinese government lowered existing mortgage rates today- sounds like a stimulus for the Chinese economy to me.
Thank you Rob. China peaked in gasoline! For the mission!!!
Can’t wait for highland!
Thank you Rob
Thanks!
Thanks Rob :)
Loves me some days like today!
thanks rob
Thanks Rob
Highland doesn't look like much of a change, but with so much testing over such a long period of time there must be quite a few under the hood differences.
Nice Ghina numbers.
Elon was clearly (in my mind) talking about FSD 12, the alpha he was using.
He also said it wouldn't be released as beta
@@bluetoad2668 Alphas are not released to the public by definition. Presumably it will reach vaulted Beta status within 6 months, general release. It's entirely new from prior versions, almost lk starting from scratch.
@@bluetoad2668 Good point, not sure how to take it except a big leap forward. My guess is it will still be called Beta initially, Elon's going to be correct, just late.
My recollection is that he said they will concentrate on making whichever version they use (presumably V12?) Reliable on HW3, both in the US AND elsewhere.
Then, similar attention will be applied to HW4.
.
Logical, since they have:-
1) Many more vehicles with HW3
And
2) A large Global fleet which needs to catch up with the level of sophistication available in the US.
.
This can now be done due to the rapid learning ability and because there's much more video feedback from that growing fleet to adjust for local conditions (signage, traffic laws, etc).
.
It seems they (Elon) expects that catch-up to be within 6 months, which will be impressive.
.
This seems to point towards a "general" Version 12 which will, like a human driver, be able to adapt when crossing borders into areas with different rules (for example, UK to "Europe")
Love it!
NHTSA's letters are getting ridiculous. I'm for active regulation, but this is just nutty.
Congrats to all TSLA investors today. Been a while to have such a big day like this. And a nice reversal from all the negativity this month.
We can probably thank, short sellers too. 😊👍🏻👍🏻
Amen!
Still losing money 😢
@@limmike5339 don’t worry. I have been buying Tesla since 2015. From 2015-2019 I felt like I was on a roller coaster. It was difficult to keep the faith. So I feel your pain. Those years are behind us now. Next year will look allot better. Hang in there. Remember investing is for the long term. I’m 68, so I’ll be taking profits in 5 years. If you are younger. Up to you. 5 years minimum hold. Patience is a virtue. 👍
@@limmike5339 TSLA still has a long way to go. I know the peak was around 400'ish dollars back in the day when it was riding its highest. If their FSD aspirations come to fruition then it will skyrocket. Let alone their energy business and battery storage business on top of that. I'm not a financial planner but this stock has a ways to go in terms of rising to its peak. At least until the 2030's. If people can't wait that long then I understand.
Difficult to cut through the political spin around China, but past history supports the position that when the Chinese authorities choose to stimulate their economy, they tend to be very successful. This should benefit auto sales in China and Tesla.
Wooo!
Tesla
Thoughts on byd's 19% gross margin?
Wow, sorry but I absolutely understood Elon was talking about a 6-month delay on VERSION 12, not FSD in general, not sure why anyone else is confused about this.
This is because of the differences in H-4 cameras which will require different video clip training of the AI, ergo the delay being for V.12
I was confused as it all seemed like selling a product that didn't exit. I have started legal proceedings.
@@gaydybwad1321good luck
@@gaydybwad1321
You're easily confused.
I wondered how much better HW4 input would need retraining. Seems to me a lot of clips could become redundant where vision just wasnt good enough.
@@mearinoThe AI needs to make some adjustments for the newer improved cameras on H4, Idk why but Elon seemed to think it might take up to 6 months for it to be ready to go ;?)
Could it be that someone put front and back covers on their model 3 (in Europe) just to see if it got any attention?
Could some of today's movement be attributed to the beginning of a short squeeze?
What version of beta went out to HW4 vehicles? Did they possibly get an older version?
I just got it on my new X. It's v11.4.4
Yes. Current version for HW 3.0 is 11 4.7.
the nag on standard autopilot is definitely a lot longer, up to a minute, if you are not looking at the road.
👍
Surprising that an expensive EV like Tesla, can be selling so well in China
when many economists say the Chinese economy is doing poorly.
It's an interesting data point in the mystery that is China.
Not that expensive in China, there were huge price cut. And China has a pretty big middle class now, who can afford it even during hard times. Don't forget that China has like 5x bigger population than the US, so relative to the population these sales numbers aren't that big.
"We" only "see" what we're told.
Imagine looking at the US economy from China.
Huge debt, but able (so far) to print money.
Great until the Petrodollar fails?
You all think it’s 🚀 past $300 this month? there was a lot of recent overselling and fear but There’s a lot of good news on the horizon.
No, only because the overall market is bringing it down.
Not without any major presentation or breakthrough and even then maybe not, since these are sort of overdue anyway. But who knows, predicting the shirt term stock market is something that no-one has cracked yet.
IT
DOESN'T
MATTER.
What is ford doing differently that they can do hands off driving?
Eye tracking
A chinese friend told me to be very suspicious about everything that comes out of China, even such claims from Sinopec 😅 Might just be politically calculated.
Elon's comments were misunderstood causing undo angst. No surprise to many HW4 FSD support would happen fairly quickly.
"Elons' comments misunderstood" by individuals and companies which are meant to be "experts" in those companies and technologies they trade?
.
Hmmm....
Gasoline consumption peaking is a VERY BIG DEAL. No more increasing oil production and gluts soon to follow and then crash in prices.
so interesting how bad news is good for the markets
The stock market is always forward looking. Valuations are based on future cash flow economics. Interesting indeed.
I still like to drive, so FSD no ty.
@6:57 -- Not to nitpick, but... the past tense of _bear_ is _bore_ ("beared" is not a word). ;-)
Definition of nitpick.....
It no rain so desert beared?
@@paxdrago1 It's called irony. Look it up. ;-)
@@Martin-se3ij LMAO!! I see what you did there. ;-)
(Though, to be fair, you did misspell "arid".)
So the government wants to lower inflation by causing people who need jobs to lose them while paying a higher interest on treasuries to those who already have enough money to buy those treasuries. Not to mention the increase in the money supply that causes, which probably exacerbates inflation. "Basic income for those who already have money" ~ Warren Mosler
inflation always drives up interest rates. Keep prices low to stop economic damage.
After FSD 12 works, Tesla can add stolen car mode. A Tesla car can drive itself to the police station when the owner reports the car stolen.
Driving around the Bay Area today, I was amazed at the number of Rivian on the road. Two of my friends cancelled their Tesla orders and got Rivians instead.
OK. Another car in the EVverse!
3:43 He was talking about v12. "FSD Beta v12"? v11 will be the last Beta version; v12 will not be Beta. Calling v12 "Beta v12" diminishes the significance of getting rid of "Beta", which is a really HUGE friggin deal, imo.
Strongly disagree, Tesla will not make the first release of a new architecture the first release to drop the beta tag.
@@TeslaDaily"Version 12 won't be beta", Elon, X, June 27, 2023.
@@TeslaDaily Whole Mars Catalog: "FSD Beta 12 'maybe later this year'"
Elon's response: "Version 12 won't be beta"
I'm going with Elon; it'll be "FSD V12...". No "beta"..
China deliveries slumped in July to the lowest level this year, as the electric vehicle maker struggles to attract buyers despite price cuts and other incentives.
The company’s Shanghai plant delivered 64,285 cars last month, a 31.4% drop from June, according to preliminary data published by China’s Passenger Car Association on Thursday. The PCA doesn’t break down numbers for local deliveries versus exports, but Tesla typically focuses on shipping overseas in the beginning of each quarter.......... Bloomberg
NHITSA wants Tesla to tell them how to engage Elon mode so they can make a video on how to turn on the mode for everyone. That way when someone has a accident. They can blame Tesla. Got to keep that fud stream flowing.
Rob Meowrer 🐈
🎉❤😂
Gas demand may have peaked but prices can be manipulated buy the oil cartel.
It really does annoy me to see forward and GM advertise hands-free driver assistance for freeway wow having a constant nag with Teslas system. Tesla's inboard camera is very good at catching me looking at screen or phone and system never messes up on highway freeway so don't see why we need a nag but others with inferior systems don't.
Now when tesla "recovered, " I hope Elons recovers from his debilitating ketamine and cocaine addiction.
I became very disappointed in Elon when he supported Trump after he tried to overturn the 2020 election and overthrow our government. Tweeting "next level" to his recent mug shot is final for me. I am done with investing in Tesla and in Elon.
Rob, can you have your face pic be on every episode cover photo instead of Elon’s? I think I’m more likely to listen when it is. SO unbelievably sick of that man and seeing his face.
De-risking is proceeding; foreign companies are fleeing. The Chinese consumer base is shriveling. Unemployment is going up so fast that the CCP has moved from lying about the numbers to just not reporting them. Even Foxconn has started to retreat from China.
What's amazing about GF Shanghai's sales numbers is that they haven't dipped.
Yet.
The rest of the auto industry in China is showing some distress, despite generous production subsidies.
Consumer markets in China just aren't very strong. For the last 30 years, China has been dependent on exports as its true engine of growth - plus debt-fueled infrastructure. Foreign markets are now going away, and the debt has exceeded what's sustainable. Credit is tightening, banks are stressed, defaults are rising.
The Chinese growth story is over. And that fact, not electrification, is the dominant influence on moving peak oil forward in China. ICEVs are being driven less - less commuting (fewer jobs), less domestic hauling.
Falling consumer spending will hit Tesla last in China, because their price/value ratio is the best in the industry. But it will hit.
I expect Tesla knows this, and is busy cultivating export destinations in the Pacific Rim. Exports will rise. GF Shanghai should be okay - unless the trade war gets worse, or if China attacks Taiwan. In which case the CCP may decide to hurt Tesla. Which can be done in any number of ways, up to and including seizure. They are communists, after all. They play by different rules.
Tesla has navigated the dangers in China about as well as it was possible to do. But those dangers are getting worse.
Wall Street underestimates the dangers. But they fail to price in Tesla's strengths, too. Bottom line will be extreme stock price volatility as this or that news story breaks.
I guess it makes sense that FSD software has to be schlepped onto HW4. That's how they'll collect video data. Relying on it might be iffy until Tesla can train up the neural nets on higher quality video.
Thanks for your reporting, Rob.
Why would Chinese consumers buy teslas when there’re plenty other excellent local brands when Tesla cheats on range. Those who bought those 17000 tesla will soon regret their decisions
Wanker
Prestige
Performance, safety rating, and charging network
@@gaydybwad1321 China has an expansive local charging network far superior and cheaper than the supercharger network there. Even tesla owners charge at local DC chargers
@@tasd5673 lol
Fifth!