EDIT: As ulrich brodowsky and others have pointed out, one major cause for Europe's second wave having more cases (therefore a lower fatality rate) than the first (discussed at 7:33), is that countries are able to do much more testing now than before! In the first wave, many mild cases probably went undetected, since COVID-19 was so new. But now, after 8 months to prepare, a higher percentage of infected people are found. Which is a step in the right direction!
Man, I LOVE your videos! ;d Greeting from Bulgaria, btw! We here die and don't give a shit. People don't believe the virus exists :d;d;d;d The politicians are pressured by someone (I guess), whose interests are endangered by the lockdowns and don't do shit, as long as people die in hospitals, so that they don't carry the blame for it. ;d;d And we have a LOT of hospitals here, so we decided it is ok. Sadly the video ends on the 6th, when we used to have 6,6 deaths/million/day. Now 2 weeks later we went to 14,7 and half of the kids still go to school, many people don't wear masks, resturants and everything else (except clubs) are open, people are NOT getting tested at all (40-45% of tests are positive ;d) and we have a great argument on national TV whether mask are more harmful or helpful.. (nobody knows for sure). It's great. The memes are real. OH! ..AND according to national TV - 26% of people said that they would vaccinate themselves, 45% would not. (cuz we real thugs). 29% don't know yet ;d;d;d ua-cam.com/video/28XRNGKXBIc/v-deo.html
I'd love to mention tje deaths and injuries due to car accidents: similar to how the data points out previous pandemics. In the United States alone roughly 40,000ppl die in a year and 4.4million ppl are injured. Deaths: 40,000÷365days÷350 (US pop.)in millions gives a rough estimate of 0.3 deaths per million daily. Injuries: 4.4million÷365days÷350 (US pop.)in millions gives a rough estimate of 35 injuries per million daily. I thought a more wildly known cause of death, (such as car accidents) would be a good comparison to add to this data. 🤓🤓
@@axeblue Yeah, I always compared it like that. In Bulgaria we get a total of about 2 deaths per day from car accidents (all 7 mil. pop.) and currently 107 deaths form covid OFFICIALY.. but the total deaths in the country 2 weeks ago was was so much higher than what we officially count as covid deaths, so that number is probably much higher, or even double..
Great video! Please paste this into your video description. It will add chapter-like separations into your video's playback bar. Edit them if you like: [00:00] Intro [00:26] Explanation 1: how to read graph, typical trajectory [01:41] Explanation 2: fatality, logarithmic scale, world wide spread [03:25] Explanation 3: comparing with past diseases, late death reporting [05:15] Observation 1: seasonal trends [06:11] Observation 2: considering population sizes [07:10] Observation 3: europe's second wave [08:20] Observation 4: US peak numbers [09:00] Shift to quick animation + extra thoughts [09:23] Thought 1: fatality of Influenza, fake data [10:42] Thought 2: pros and cons of logarithmic scale [12:06] Thought 3: "one in a million" [13:58] Conclusion [14:18] Covid-19 Loader
@anonymous is the infection rate with minorities a correlation or a causation? We shouldn't be saying that that minorities are getting infected more, but be asking why. Otherwise we get politicians outright saying that more minorities are being killed, leading people to think it's something genetic
Surprisingly, I have taken it seriously while was still in China, and no governments took measures. But now when governments takes measures that do more harm than good, I do not take it seriously anymore. I mean yes is worse than flu, maybe ten times worse, but the measures are 100 times tough, while flu is not taken seriously at all. I always was pissed of seeing people with flu in public, going to work, or even working in public places. I was not aware by the toll death of the flu, but I really did not liked to get it. And still the authorities, even aware of deaths did not took measures. I mean permitting people to stay home at the first sign. And people had no choice but to go to work or whatever they need, like getting food or medicine. For example for my medicine I need to get not only to pharmacy, but to family doctor too, to get prescription. He cannot give it to me without medical letter from hearth doctor. The hearth doctor cannot give prescription without recommendation from family doctor. And this after few years, when my treatment is well known and established. So instead of a single trip to pharmacy, I am forced to do one trip for recommendation, one for medical letter, one for prescription, and the last for medicine itself, all involving long queues of many other peoples in the same situation. And this happened even there was a flu epidemic ongoing. And it was not only flu, there are a lot of other unpleasant things one can get from a crowd in hospital. And plus that all this bureaucracy kept busy medical personnel, while other sick people suffer from access to medical care. Now with the new trend, yes some of those steps are avoided, but the rules will return when the new politics will consider proper. Not proper for public health, but for own interests. In a way I am glad that this global hysteria is raising awareness to hygiene, but since the measures are disproportionate to the danger, and other dangerously are not taken seriously, I stopped taking seriously this covid fashion too. Yes is more of a fashion than a real pandemic. I do not say that the virus does not exist. Actually the virus exists since long ago. As they say there are old fashion coronaviruses that cause the common cold, we know the common cold, we all had it, for centuries. And now suddenly in last two decades there comes three new of them. Really weird. And what is most weird is that I had this about 5 years ago. I got a nasty cold that almost wiped me out. the symptoms were really what they advertise now. It was so bad that i visited emergency room one day, but there were 100 more people waiting, so I decided to return home and suffer in my own bad than to suffer on a uncomfortable chair, exchanging viruses with others. But during the night got worse and I called an ambulance. I got some medicine prescription that did not quite helped. Anyway, the respiratory problems I blamed on my heart weakened some years before. Barely walking I looked for a heart doctor, but all were having appointments for 6 months in advance. Obviously they were busy writing prescriptions for those who needed medicine. So I just waited and weather got warmer an I got better on my own. After two years I managed to be examined and get my treatment. but still I have respiratory problems from that cold. Lung and throat doctors found nothing wrong. And I am not the only one in this situation, a friend of mine had it two years ago. Never got to the doctor. But was bad. I thought that we were hit by second sars version, but that was a decade ago and they declared it over. If it was over than what hit me and my friend and those hundreds from emergency room I saw, and maybe millions around the world? So for me this is just a common cold that is taken seriously disproportionately seriously. And the measures are doing more damage than help. So let see... 11,089,708Communicable disease deaths this year, 8 times more deaths due to other communicable diseases. What measures are against those? 417,988Seasonal flu deaths this year, so covid is three times worse. Was any measures against flu? at least three times less? I saw none. 1,436,073Deaths caused by HIV/AIDS this year so the death is comparable. Have we seen at least media coverage for this? not to say measures that ruins entire categories of people? 7,016,067Deaths caused by cancer this year. yeah , not transmissible, but still is 5 times more deaths than covid, there should be concern at lest. I was not quite hit by media coverage. 4,270,557Deaths caused by smoking this year, so three times more than covid. And yes, there are decades since this plague is under attack, but the war against it is incomparable with what happens with covid. 2,136,640Deaths caused by alcohol this year. Double than covid. But nobody talks about it. 916,090Suicides this year, almost as many, but this goes almost quietly. 1,153,198Road traffic accident fatalities this year. Yes the issue is covered, but barely, the world did not stopped because of it. So As you see, there are 25 times more fatalities happening around the world, but the causes are ignored or barely acknowledged, while because of covid, the world almost halted. So yes, even initially I took it seriously, I do not take it anymore. And I will not take it while the other fatality causes are not taken seriously.
very nicely done. My read on lower fatality rate on second wave is simply detection is better now. First wave, no one was really ready, not enough tests, low detection rate. Second wave, everyone is now MUCH better prepared. Detection rate looks to be much more accurate. My estimate is detection rate is 5x better in the second wave. This currently puts first and second waves as comparable (so far).
My additional 2cents are that probably many of the really vulnerable people are already dead by now. Plus, countries aren't going to repeat Italy's mistake from the first wave where they put Covid patients into free spots in nursing homes once the hospitals overflowed. I'd guess most countries have special protocols for nursing homes this time around. So, those old people who made it to the second wave should be better protected -> less deaths.
The average age of COVID infections is going down, which could be partly due to more school infections and less nursing home infections. However it could also be due to better detection, as younger, healthier infected people might have never gotten tested back in spring. I think you're right when you state both waves are comparable.
@@xxtradamxx Your comment made me really curious about czechia. Im from UK and don't know much about czechia politics but I always thought that they were reliable and not corrupt just like its german neighbours... am I thinking wrong??
@@NattyVega well, belgium topped the charts in the first and the second wave, you could have done worse. But you are right, it's kind of strange how both our countries are doing so bad this wave
@@supermotherfuckingvillain Ironically, I am from Czechia as well, the biggest problem would be that our politicians don't have very great reputation. One of the latest scandals was the head of the ministry of health was in restaurant without mask at night drinking in public with other people, when masks are required, being out at night is fully restricted, restaurants should be closed and there shouldn't be groups of people anywhere.
Living in Argentina, I can't believe there are people who still don't take this seriously. 4 people in my family have already died due to coronavirus, yet almost everyone I know still treats the pandemic as if it is nothing. I did quarantine ever since march very strictly, even when nobody else did. And yet, my family was the one who suffered from it the most. Sadly people here are so selfish that they don't even care about the pandemic even after seeing people die from it first-handedly. Compare us to Uruguay for example. Here, we had one of the longest and most strict quarantines of the world, with extreme government pressure on raising awarness about the pandemic... and people still don't give a crap about it. In Uruguay, they had NO quarantine at all, and people were responsible enough to do quarantine on their own. And what are the results? 33000 dead in Argentina, + 27000 cases per million people, while on Uruguay it's 61 dead, and 1000 cases per million people. I fell absolutely ashamed for my country. Sadly being apathetic and selfish is part of our culture.
I'm Polish and I would say we started very good .We closed borders 2 weeks ahead of Britain ,just after Italy .Blockage on motorways was longer than 60km forming chaos and queues and the effect was really good ,people were wearing masks .Now I see tiredness people don't care about mask don't understand why they wear ,or wear not correctly. Nowadays is very bad we are probably one of the most affected country in Europe .It looks that we have to catch up backlog with cases and deaths.
There are people who still think that Covid is a hoax and it is all some government conspiracy (it’s not). I too know people who have suffered due to the virus. I am sorry for your loss.😥
Masks don't prevent you from being infected, they prevent you from spreading it (so I've heard). Sadly, because masks help others and not the one who wears them, many people don't choose to wear masks.
@@sdrc92126 If it was a conspiracy, then people wouldn't be dying. Plus, it's preventable by wearing a mask in public places, using hand sanitizer, and washing your hands often. If this was a whole conspiracy then why would the government spending billions of dollars to find a vaccine. It is NOT a conspiracy.
In France, the main reason why the apparent fatality rate is way lower now than during the first wave is because there is a lot more testing, thus increasing the number of cases without changing the number of deaths. I guess that might explain the difference
When it comes to Finland, almost non existing fatality is, because first wave struct on elderly. (Higher mortality) Now second wave hit mostly on young adults and teens. Less lethal.
Yes I was about to say this. The same goes for the Netherlands as well. We're testing way way waaaay more than we did during the first wave. In the past 2 months testing capacity has been growing at an impressive rate. A bit over a month ago I couldn't get tested because of a shortage of testing capacity, but at the peak of the second wave everyone could get tested again even though the number of cases only had gone up. They're opening XL testing locations now to increase capacity even further. While better treatment also definitely helps, I think the effect is mostly explained by the increased testing capacity.
@@jarskil8862 That is the other grim fact, the reason the seasonal flu is not that deadly is that we have adapted to it. Those that would be susceptible at a low age have contracted it and died before having children. The same thing will likely happen with covid-19. At least I hope so, because if it keep doings its rounds at current numbers, the world will _never_ be the same again. There will be no more travels to foreign countries and other continents to experience other cultures.
Can you recreate the dot graph but advance the death stat time to more closely match the responsible infection rate? Could clean up the visualization greatly
That's a good idea! This video was me experimenting with this type of GapMinder-inspired data visualization, so there's definitely ways I could tinker with it to make it more accurate / meaningful. If the death stat is advanced by a week or two, then countries should just move diagonally up and down those lines, in theory! (No circular motion)
@@Abacaba oh i do suggest u thinker with it... there's a lot of data you'r missing and by doing so misleading... u know what i made a long comment addresing my issues with you'r video just look for it a second and...
@@Abacaba It would especially be useful to compare country policies over time such as the hotly debated Sweden. Though I think people are making a lot of false assumptions about the actual lock down measures
@@donotlike4anonymus594 I read your comment and your comment is stupid. It seems like you don't understand how data/statistics work. A data processing ALWAYS only shows a limited range of information/effects. And reputable data is always transparent about that, which carykh is. Which means, he doesn't make any claims above of what the data shows. Limited factors only give answer to limited questions. If you want answers to other questions, you have to use different factors/data. You want an other answer to an other question which isn't adressed in this data (deathrate in different agegroups). Feel free to prepare such a graph to make a specific point you want to make if it makes you feel better.
@@justmy2cents652 I fully understand that tthis is the data and that the situation isn't ideal but that's not really the point of my argument... My issue with the data is that showing it this way is extremely misleading This is a pandemic. The right question isn't outh to be the number of infections and... But how harmful they are to society With the same way I can present u with some interesting that of people who drive or spend time in cars/in general on the road have a much higher chance of dying early then people who don't... Data wise... Perfectly fine But the correlation doesn't mean cars or drives or...... Are to blame Just imaging if government regulators and... Would've looked at correlations they would've banned cars in theory (well.... For example) But the more data we look st the batter The more data allows us to learn how people die and why And by that we can implement better regulations and safeguards such as air bags... Not making any claims of what the data shows mean nothing when the data involves such things as...oh idk recent/live deaths! On to mention an ongoing pandemic... Should data be tainted by emotions of course not but it is extremely irresponsible to present data this way... The example I gave might a bit.... But the point is... The more data we look it the batter Here on UA-cam the data isn't presented to researchers institutions or politicians.. That'll make important decisions impacting millions In regards of my example obviously the regulators would take a closer look st the data.... But the average person is stupid and fearful The average person doe snot look st the full data... People look at UA-cam videos and memes... And that's my issue U wonna graph something OK go a head but don't fear monger and try presenting as much of the data as possible I'm not saying underplaying obviously but... Not mislead Data's great but there is such a thing as lies by omitting
@@peacefindersimply5001 Lol, countries like belgium and czechia had 20k infections a day. That would equal to 600k new infections a day in the US. A less severe example: france, which would still equal 300k new cases in a day for the US
@@stefvnbrssl8601 yeah, when it comes to cases per population the USA isn't as bad as some other countries, and most places still are doing just fine in the USA but I have a feeling that will change this wave, this looks like it will be worse then the first wave in a way that dwarfs the previous.
@@peacefindersimply5001 My experience of USA winters vs those here in northern Europe is that they start a lot later in the US than here. I've enjoyed weeks of glorious warm sunshine in New York in November 20C/70F) whereas it is typically only 5-10C / 40-50F outside here by then. Sorry to say It is about to hit you very hard in such places.
7:47 I think the amount of testing that has gone up afaik probably plays into that a lot too. It's probably a combination of better treatment, it being the beginning of the second wave and more testing that explains the lower "instant measured fatality rate" (don't know how else to call it); because more testing means more cases are actually known; while most severe cases were probably known during the first wave too.
Yes perhaps this is the biggest weakness of an otherwise excellent video. Available testing in European countries was very low at the start of the pandemic but mass testing is available in wave 2 meaning many more of the less severe cases are picked up. This affects the denominator in the Case/Fatality Ratio (CFR). Covid hasn't suddenly become a lot less deadly - we are just detecting more cases. This is completely understood by medical science since the start of the pandemic but the lay person may not appreciate the difference here between the CFR and the Infection Fatality Ratio (IFR) the latter takes into account that a lot of cases arent being detected early on in the pandemic - and estimates of the Infection Fatality Ratio have only fallen only a little over time. It is almost as deadly in the second wave as the first so this is not a reason to relax. As an illustration of the big differences in Cases/Deaths ratio (CFR) changing in Europe between Wave 1 (Spring) and Wave 2 (Autumn) is highlighted by testing capacity in the UK. Back in March /April the UK could only deliver 10,000 tests per day during the peak of the pandemic - when hundreds of thousands of people had Covid-19 at anyone time. Testing capacity increased slowly and before accelerating to around 100,000 tests per per day in May - but only after it had missed the peak of the first wave (which led to something like 1000 deaths per day at the start of April). Right now we have capacity for 500,000 tests per day - not far off enough to test 1% of the population every day (68million) and more than enough presently to test everyone who has symptoms as well as to start to rollout Chinese style mass testing of everyone in priority cities.
"Well you see, its extremely implausible that so many disparate groups and people would all join together in a conspiracy like that" very true, but unfortunately if the people vulnerable to conspiracy theories were able to grasp that simple concept, we wouldn't have conspiracy theories at all.
@_𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪__𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪_ A few things to clarify: while chewing gum is banned from being sold, you can still bring it over the border and chew it. While gay sex is banned, the government doesn't intefere. You can still have same sex relationships( my mom has a colleague who does and i know a friend who's also gay), the government just wouldn't acknoledge it legally and you won't get in trouble for participating in it. Otherwise events like the Pink Dot Parade couldn't exist. You can drink alcohol at night, just not in public spaces. I think this was the result of one of the riots we had a while back. Capital punishment for drugs to my memory has recently been more lenient. You'll still get in a ton of trouble for owning or selling non prescription drugs, capital punishment is just less likely now. So essentially while Singapore has laws like these in place, truth is the government closes one eye for some of these crimes as long as you don't broadcast it. A few laws I'm completely okay with is ones relating to the matter of littering, graffiti and toilet flushing. It keeps public spaces clean and it isn't particularly disruptive. But honestly the one with suicide and POFMA is complete bs. We also really need to change policies on how we treat single mothers. Yes, you can purchase houses in Singapore. It's just incredibly costly since land is a limited resource. The cheapest landed properties will cost you a minimum of almost $2 million sgd, depending on the market. Cars are expensive to keep car ownership to a minimum to prevent traffic congestion. Since public transport is generally decent, you dont need one anyway. Yes, cost of living is pretty high but a huge contributing factor is the high cost of housing, less so daily living expenses. Meals can cost as little as SGD3.00 or as high as SGD5 depending on where you purchase it. Of course, basic living expenses have been increasing over the years.
Just imagine how much MORE worse than the flu it would have been already, had the world not taken all these lockdown measures. Very good video, thank you!
T-cell immunity (or innate immune response) is the real protection happening with SARS-COV-2 , antibodies have little to do with it. Previous past Cor/ virus infections are common and immunity is long lasting. Even though SARS-Cov-2 is considered a novel virus it is easily recognized and understood by the T-cells memory recall and recognition RNA deciphering mechanisms. All Corona viruses share similar borrowed and hijacked proteins, molecular parts and genetic code sequencing. This is precisely why, for the vast majority of the population, the infections are either very mild or completely benign. Anyone with a general normal functioning immune system, has by the statistical data, essentially almost a zero percent chance of serious infection, or long term effects. Any vaccine at this stage of the (endemic equilibrium) high case count, low casualty numbers, with a low (RO) value (viral stasis) will have little or no benefit whatsoever. Focused protection on the small, subset population that are very old or severely immunocompromised is the only viable option. Naturally acquired Herd immunity is not an objective opinion or hypothesis, a theory, a strategy or a debate, it is biological law, like gravity or the laws of thermodynamics. It is the absolute truth, it never changes, alters, wavers or is effected by political, or monetary agenda. It exists and regularly occurs in every single pathogenic virus that has ever existed, whether anyone believes in it or not! All further funding and focus that is being wasted at a colossal scale on lock-downs, that are doing far more harm than good, should be funneled exclusively to the susceptible target group population, where it will actually have significant benefit and let the virus pass through the general healthy population at a normal rate. Any deviation from this narrative from the scientific community and government officials, will only prolong the suffering and cost far more lives to be lost, which is nothing less than crimes against humanity. Instead of trying desperately to prove to the world that they were right, it is long overdue time for all scientists to admit consensus and follow the exact public health protocol that has been unspokenly used for every pandemic in modern history, whereas naturally acquired population immunity (herd immunity) is the principal driving force and Not in refute. 1) ua-cam.com/video/PuZ0WmC8uP0/v-deo.html 2) ua-cam.com/video/5y51GICqL9E/v-deo.html / 3) ua-cam.com/video/BkgTqkL-bqY/v-deo.html 4) ua-cam.com/video/q6LB2Rp44zA/v-deo.html
@@ghwk-phd2784 Herd immunity itself isn't a strategy nor political, but going for natural herd immunity certainly is. Smallpox wasn't eradicated by natural herd immunity; Ebola isn't fought with herd immunity; herd immunity is not the only way. This virus is too infectious and too harmful to not fight with lockdowns. We know this because we have seen what happens when you don't: you get freezer trucks used as morgues. We do not have enough healthcare workers for 'focused protection' of the people who are at risk--which is a larger group than you make it out to be--and while young and healthy people certainly have a very low hospitalization rate, very low times everyone is too many people. Going for group immunity is not a viable option. The most viable option is keeping the virus in check with lockdowns where necessary until vaccines have been developed and distributed to enough people for an artificial herd immunity. We know it's possible to keep Covid in check because countries like New Zealand and many in Europe (before the second wave hit) managed it, and Europe would still be managing it if many governments weren't as slow to react. Yes, if we don't use lockdowns and let the virus spread, humanity will survive like it has done with past pandemics, but it wasn't and wouldn't be pretty. Also, it's not like we did nothing in past pandemics. In fact, we have one pandemic which clearly demonstrates how bad it can get when you don't respond: the Spanish flu. Governments around the world mostly ignored it because of the world war going on at the time and it was devastating. I don't want to make the same mistake with Covid.
@@Huntracony For simplicity of explanation, there are basically two (type) classifications of pathogenic virus. First (type) High virulence/low infectious virus ( ie EBOLA, AIDS, Rabies etc.) 85-99% death rate regardless of age or health status, but very low level infectious rate. (relatively very difficult to contract or transmit). Second (type) Low virulence/high infectious virus (ie influenza, Corona ) ubiquitous, (very common) extremely high infectious rate, but very low level virulence. Essentially almost a zero percent chance of death among the general healthy population with normal functioning immune systems.
@Gilga Mesh They're not just entitled, its basically the law, the will of the people, you can't decide it for the people what's best, you can only inform, too bad people don't believe in you as government because you're a liar. I've only seen the quarantine measures in the first 3 weeks, then its was back to business as usual, even then I saw because I was driving my car thought the empty city, not a real quarantine. If the governments had power to control a population in that way, we would be dealing with something far more dangerous than a pandemic, that would be a global fascist totalitarian state. You can't lock people, in absolutely no circumstance that's justifiable, what would you do? shot at people that don't stay at home? jail them? now you just made the problem worse, if there's not enough hospitals for everyone what makes you think that there would be enough cells in the jail? Of course the population would revolt against that, its a danger far to greater than the virus. "No transit, no business, no nothing" I prefer to die from the virus instead of dying from famine. I would prefer to die in the revolt, at least I would be fighting for freedom. Why is that so hard to understand baffles me.
A lovely video and the graph animation and explanation is great. The only thing i'd add is that a lot of scientific institutions claims that there are A LOT more unknown cases of COVID 19 than those that are counted, bouncing from 3 times as much up to 10 times as much. You could compare these figures as an hypothetical situacion when talking about other diseases like Influenza :)
T-cell immunity (or innate immune response) is the real protection happening with SARS-COV-2 , antibodies have little to do with it. Previous past Cor/ virus infections are common and immunity is long lasting. Even though SARS-Cov-2 is considered a novel virus it is easily recognized and understood by the T-cells memory recall and recognition RNA deciphering mechanisms. All Corona viruses share similar borrowed and hijacked proteins, molecular parts and genetic code sequencing. This is precisely why, for the vast majority of the population, the infections are either very mild or completely benign. Anyone with a general normal functioning immune system, has by the statistical data, essentially almost a zero percent chance of serious infection, or long term effects. Any vaccine at this stage of the (endemic equilibrium) high case count, low casualty numbers, with a low (RO) value (viral stasis) will have little or no benefit whatsoever. Focused protection on the small, subset population that are very old or severely immunocompromised is the only viable option. Naturally acquired Herd immunity is not an objective opinion or hypothesis, a theory, a strategy or a debate, it is biological law, like gravity or the laws of thermodynamics. It is the absolute truth, it never changes, alters, wavers or is effected by political, or monetary agenda. It exists and regularly occurs in every single pathogenic virus that has ever existed, whether anyone believes in it or not! All further funding and focus that is being wasted at a colossal scale on lock-downs, that are doing far more harm than good, should be funneled exclusively to the susceptible target group population, where it will actually have significant benefit and let the virus pass through the general healthy population at a normal rate. Any deviation from this narrative from the scientific community and government officials, will only prolong the suffering and cost far more lives to be lost, which is nothing less than crimes against humanity. Instead of trying desperately to prove to the world that they were right, it is long overdue time for all scientists to admit consensus and follow the exact public health protocol that has been unspokenly used for every pandemic in modern history, whereas naturally acquired population immunity (herd immunity) is the principal driving force and Not in refute. 1) ua-cam.com/video/PuZ0WmC8uP0/v-deo.html 2) ua-cam.com/video/5y51GICqL9E/v-deo.html / 3) ua-cam.com/video/BkgTqkL-bqY/v-deo.html 4) ua-cam.com/video/q6LB2Rp44zA/v-deo.html
Nice way of showing the data... I would have liked a log and linear animation right after each other. Many people are not use to seeing a log plot, thus showing the animations side by side og after each other would help the understand how big a difference one decade (factor of 10) actually is. You actually have 4 decades here, thus there is a huge difference on lower left and upper right.
other one I think, is that now, several countries have better conditions in making more tests, therefore lowering the subnotification
3 роки тому+5
@@ViNiMiCoRRizA Now that you say it, I think that's probably the main reason. More tests lead to more confirmed cases, but not more confirmed deaths, because most deaths already get tests.
@@ghwk-phd2784 Your entire argumentation doesn't work because you can be infected multiple times: www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/your-health/reinfection.html So herd immunity cannot work and therefore the strategy would be the worst possible option. (Also, I noticed that all your sources are UA-cam videos from channels without that "confirmation" checkmark, so likely just regular people. No scientific institutions, no known experts, no articles, no media outside of UA-cam, … And none of the four videos links sources (one vaguely points to an analysis company). Not very trustworthy.) And in general: Why do you comment that here? This thread has nothing to do with herd immunity.
Any chance you could post an interactive version of this somewhere, where we could select a given country and animate its trajectory/explore on our own?
I really liked that you explained every single detail of the graph so that it is understandable for the majortiy of people; and your conclusion at the end was really good!
Oh Cary, you are proceeding so much statistical data, and even explaining it, and even visualizing it in understandable way. But somehow, for some reason, the data for this particular disease is the most 'welcomed'. In your shoes, if I would like to improve myself (via visitor/s comments and ideas) I would definitely use this theme more often. Cheers ~~~
In the second wave, the death rate % is lower mainly because european countries now count the amount of cases much better; in Spain the government has said that they detected 10% of the cases in march while now they detect 70%, so that is the main cause over europe.
i feel a good chunk of the new lower fatality in europe is due to much improved testing so more people with the virus are detected as opposed to the first wave. i havent actually looked deeply into those country's testing though so its just a guess of mine
@「mellowfrow」 my guess is the people are now bored to be afraid so much, despite all the media's efforts. And also don't forget - the deathrate is following with 10-20 days delay. So, the big time came just 2-3 weeks ago, aaand this means the deathrates should catch in the next days.
This is my favorite visualization you've done on this topic, I see you things every time you replay the clip, and I find that counterclockwise curve fascinating.
Really cool! You could offset the deaths data by ~14 days to get a less circular trend which shows ~cases and the deaths associated with those cases. More abstract but might be a more clear representation of the data we're after. Love your stuff!!!
Well that was a cool video! Can you make the next one on active cases to help us visualize it better- I know you are basically copy + pasting the data from worldometers, but you help us visualize it so much better!
Yeah. But now Sweden is seeing an increase in positivity rates as well. Very troubling. In the capital Stockholm they saw a positivity rate of 20 %. In the summer, that rate was much lower, I can't remember exactly, but I think down to 4-5 %.
maybe it sounds harsh, but i think the most vulnerable persons already died in the 1st wave, so mortality rate should be lower with every follow-up-wave, following darwins law
We should keep in mind that South America has pretty mild seasons. Most of the population is between the tropic of cancer and the tropic of capricorn and many of the most infected countries there are entirely within the tropics. Even if seasonality has a very strong effect, I don't think it is going to matter very much in Peru. Lima for example has a difference between summer average highs and winter average highs of 8 degrees. Compare: Berlin, with a difference of 21 degrees, Paris, with a difference of 18 degrees, London, 15 degrees, Washington DC, 24 degrees, Moscow, 28 degrees, Beijing, 29 degrees, Seoul, 28 degrees, New Delhi, 19 degrees.
Because this visualisation is based on ratios and percentages, the smaller population countries will be moving a lot more than the larger population ones.
@@deegobooster That's kinda dumb, because there are lot of country we can barely or can't even see on the graph, we can't even identify them. As well a big circles are hiding other circles behind them.
Quick suggestion: instead of colors representing continents, why not have them represent mask use? I feel like it would be a good way to show a correlation between masks and COVID.
I like how this graph shows fine gradiations between smaller percentages, as a lot of the countries spend much of their time in that area, but it is frustrating to see countries go well above that and to not have a very intuitive way of knowing where they are. That gap between 10% and 100% is represented by a very small space, but it is actually a huge difference.
Ok, so America got 126K cases today. Many people don't even care. And in March, when we had 30K, we had tons of lockdowns and everybody was wary of each other. 4x the cases, but 4x *less* awareness of this virus. (I hope the new president can fix this situation!)
I was recently saying to my husband that what I wanted to see was a Hans Rosling style graph of covid, using a per capita context. THANK YOU for assembling this. I don't think or know if Hans has gotten around to it himself yet, but this is just what I wanted to see.
Brazilian here, i can't say this for the whole south america, or even the whole Brazil. but seasons here are not straight forward as they are in the north. here summer doesn't necessarily means hotter and winter does not necessarily means colder, and even when it does. the difference might not be that significant. you have places where there are barely any difference between seasons and weird situations where the summer might be actually colder because of higher rainfall and winters are somewhat hot because droughts or places where it pretty much feels like god is throwing dice with the temperature every day with no regard for anything
I'm at home-office since 2020-03-20, when our president (of germany) told us it might be a good idea to stay at home - if possible. I literally left my bureau as-is and never went there since today, because I am in the very comfortable situation that I can do that and that I am allowed to work from home. Since it's now nearly a year, I'd really appreciate an update video like this, because you're doing a very great job.
Well done! First time i see the rolling effect of cases/deaths.. It must be allot of effort to make this, respect!!! I made some on paper of deaths in a timeline but I stopped, to much countries. Especially my country; Belgium. On March 10th I saw that belgium rised more quickly than many other countries. Then my government didn’t respond until March 21. Now the second wave isn’t any better. Hope it’s all over soon, cheers!
Yeah and just today: - 20.000 people without masks in germany, leipzig had a demo against the covid rules - Thousands of people in america made a party on the streets because bidon won the election. And I'm sitting here, not going into the cinema or playing football for a whole year now. GG guys.
so, dont just sit in your room all day... get fresh air, sunlight and exercise every day or you'll get sick from anything. also eat healthy. staying locked in your room makes you sick in other ways.
I know. It's infuriating to see how people disregard the rules, effectively prolonging this whole ordeal for everyone and causing more people to suffer and die. I have several of the known risk factors due to disability so I'm very afraid to get infected. My life is very limited because I can't trust other people to take the proper precautions. I have to wait it out, until enough people are vaccinated and even then, I will have to be very careful. Unfortunately, I will probably not be able to be vaccinated due to lower immune system, so I will have to hope that many others will, especielly those in my close proximity.
The chart sped up looks like that one dude who goes like "That's it I'm doin it" Then instantly regrets it but then everyone's like "Well he did it so I can do it" then it's too late and everyone's just fuckin vibing in the death zons
They were more in line with excess mortaility then other countries, certainly in the beginning: www.vrt.be/vrtnws/en/2020/05/16/excess-mortality-in-belgium-highest-since-world-war-ii-the-co/
Those graphs you make are really helpful! I’m always very careful when I have to go out but here in Italy not everyone is like that. My aunt doesn’t even believe that this pandemic is real.. sometimes I really wanna know what is inside of those people’s brain..
@7:40 It’s mainly because testing is way better and we see more reported cases, even the mild ones. I think most experts agree on that. Better prepared hospitals are a miner reason, too.
hang on. really?, apart from up in the Himalyas, i just assumed the rest of India experienced a hot and humid and wet/monsoonal summer and dry and mild winter. Like the tropics. does a larger than assumed amount of India experience colder winters?
@@peepeetrain8755 part of it is that India actually isn't all that far south. I.E. New Delhi is pretty far north, 29 degrees or something, and also continental, not coastal. The other is that it's just so hot that is not so much cold winters as facemeltingly hot summers (or, they would feel facemeltingly hot to someone from a cooler climate).
And again, for instance at 8:03 there is another explanantion, I already gave below: during the 2nd wave the test capacity was iin order, i.e. we (Netherlands) could test what we wanted tot test. So anyone with a symptom that could be COVID can get a test. Many do... in the 1st wave, only really sick people got tested..... so the % positive was much, much higher. I actually think you have to add this to your video!!
thanks man, love Hans Rosling and Gapminder, really cool way to show more than 2 dimensions on a data set. I believe Rosling also worked with Max Roser, who is part of Our World in Data. It's a really great org with great data visualizations, including with COVID-19. Actually they collaborated with the Kurzgesagt channel as well. :)
@all - oh c'mon people. All viruses are 'assembled' of 3 things - RNA code, proteins and fats (to hold em together). UV light is known to destroy/dismantle proteins and fats, it just burns them. And the UV (as being the most high frequency illumination) is most absorbed by the atmosphere. So, when the atmosphere is thinnest? When the Sun is the highest - at moon and at summer, at mountain peaks etc. Every time and place where it is easy to get sunburn - such time and place is a extermination place for all kind of viruses. And all alive, in fact. But most animals are big enough to get just burn at the surface. Now viruses and bacteria - they are small, very small, so such conditions are deadly to them. So, the same said with few words - in the summer all the viruses and bacteria in the air are dying (disassembling) at much faster rate. The same in another wording - Uncle Sam is ill from Covid. So he touches a doorknob. If it is mild temperature, not much Sun (like in spring and autumn) - the viruses he leaves will live for 1-2 days. But, if there is Sun shining over that doorknob - the viruses will die in 1-2-3 hours. So, the transfer rate in such conditions is much lower - as the airborne + surface ways are the most 'used' by the viruses.
You can make a number of guesses to explain it away. Notably, the R number of many diseases tends to decrease somewhat during the summer as people go outside, where transmission is less likely.
Absolutley commendable work! Thank you for really giving these numbers a face that can be understood intuitively. It is a pity that so many people refuse the facts because they are too insecure to crunch the numbers themselves and/or too distrustful to trust others to do it correctly. This here is a shining example of how to get it _right._
4:34 I haven't gotten through the whole video, but Croatia just passed 100% of deaths? I'm not an expert on these types of graphs, so I might be mistaken.
8:20 Another possibility is that, as COVID kills off the most-vulnerable, the remaining people are, well, *less*-vulnerable, and therefore less-likely to die.
THE BEST SCIENTIFIC COVIDDATA ANALYSIS VIDEO EVER!! AN ENORMOUS QUANTITY OF DATA WITH AN EXTREME CLEAR AND LUCID EXPLANATION ATTACHED!! @Abacaba, you were always extremely good, but video is really pure art in its best scientific form!
Lockdowns or not, herd immunity is FAR FAR away. Around 60% of the US population needs to catch COVID-19 in order to have some sort of herd immunity in the country, and that would result in a catastrophic amount of deaths, so no, herd immunity is not the solution, it is a very unethical, stupid, and desperate solution.
I think a big reason for the second wave to come in with a much lower fatality rate is because the amount of tests taken is much higher than in the first wave. In Belgium, and most other countries in Europe, we only had the test capability to test the ones in need of urgent care (the extreme cases). In the first wave we recommended people with symptons to stay at home and not get tested accept if it gets that bad that you need to go to the hospital. Now in the second wave we do have way more test capability that all the positive cases gets counted and not only the worst cases.
Love how you don't just throw data up for interpretation, but you actually talk about how it may be misleading or how the data may not be accurate. Great work.
China in every repeat is just like: *Catching everyone's eyes* *Resting in X-axis* *Suddenly bouncing to be eye-catching again* *Final settlement* over and over again
8:20 The lower fatality rate could be because covid tests are easier to get and more common, so people that just stayed home sick get counted now too I had covid in march but didn't have to go to the hospital. There were no tests back then so I don't show up in this graph, while people everywhere get tested now
Suggestion: Make a static version of the graph as a heat map of where countries have spent time. This would encode some of the patterns of motion into a general graph.
Cary: i luv the bubble map. For your Covid videos it would be great if you could separate the different continents, or make a web page where you can add or subtract continents/ countries for comparison. I lost tract of my country with the all the countries at once. Your videos are always informative and very illustrative, with an easy to understand narrative. Thank you for your work! Edit: additions Stay safe, stay sane, be well
it would be really cool if you released the code(?) for generating specifically the second part of the video, where you trail one specific country. i would've liked to play around with a few specific countries whose trail was not shown in the video otherwise, really great video as usual, keep it up and take care!
Amazing work, I liked the idea of using this Hans Rosling 5-dimensional plot. However I have to say that the result does not work as well as in Hans Rosling plot because the nature of the data is quite different: - Data on Covid-19 is not homogeneus across countries: both reported cases and reported deaths are dependent on number of tests and criteria to consider or not a covid positive or death. - Also data is not homogeneous across time: the situation in Europe in the first and second wave is quite different. Now there is more testing and doctors know better how to treat patients. For this reason it is difficult to have a good comparison between the first and the second wave. That's the thing that people are trying to figure out today, the concern of everyone today is whether or not we will reach a situation as bad as the first wave. Anyway, these are the data sets available... You can do a second version of this data visualization with some changes in order to obtain a more smooth behavior of the data: - Use a 7-day average instead of the daily data. - Apply a lag between cases a and death so the peak of the waves match. - Maybe use another dimension instead of country population for the bubble size, or just plot all bubbles of the same size. This way you may eliminate some erratic behaviour of the data.
I'm pretty sure he already used some sort of data smoothing. He talked about the single death in new Zealand which smoothly brought the death count up and back down to 0
I'm from Germany and a huge aspect why the mortality is so low is because the people who get infected are mostly young people like teenagers who just do party's anyway. The first Wave were many older people and those have a higher mortality rate
Very interesting! I am curious though about what your thoughts are on the slow ramping up over time of available testing? I don’t think that testing was fully available for Europe generally during the 1st wave, whereas definitely for the second wave anyone (at least here in France) who has the sniffles can get a test for reassurance. You mention that the lower death rate for the second wave is likely due to better care, but surely it can also be heavily influenced by testing of sufferers showing little or no symptoms?
Great video!!! I saw this video by UCSF 2 months ago where they talk about the declining deaths rates. Here is a little summary: - It was reasonable to think that maybe more young people were getting infected because it was summer and we were just itching to go outside too bad. There is probably some component of that. - The truth is that the death rate is declining across all age groups, including the elderly - More people are wearing masks now and masks reduce the amount of virus that the wearer is exposed to, which in turn reduces the severity of the disease (and chance of dying from it) - There is probably some element of herd immunity especially in places that were hit particularly hard at the beginning of the pandemic, like NYC, Italy, and Sweden (remember that Sweden went with the no-restriction approach) - Some improvement in treatments (remdesivir, steroids) - The virus is NOT becoming weaker - We know there is always a 2-3 week lag between when a person gets infected and dies from covid19, but this lag does NOT explain the decline in death rate, which has been going on for ~2 months - This is not from the video, but I read in a different source that it's likely that many of the people who are the most susceptible to severe disease have already died from it at the beginning of the pandemic, so the death rate at the start of the pandemic was higher than the current death rate. Keep in mind the number of detected cases was lower.
Amazing visual representation! For the per day/per year issue Id say the best representation (and the one we've used in Australia) is the 7-day rolling average. Might solve your issues!
You are a bless for people like me who want to see very well done and visual pleasant analysis but don't have time and all knowledge to perform them without damaging other tasks of my day. Thanks.
I found this a very useful visualization. I don't have the same facility with data, but I have done some rudimentary calculations with a few places, including the US and Ontario (where I live). To get a "death rate" you seem to be relating the deaths reported on a given day with the new cases reported on the same day. I have found that if one relates the deaths reported in a week with the new cases 3 weeks previously, then you get a fairly steady "case fatality rate" of approximately 1.7%. Don't know if you can modify your calculations to reflect this.
8:00 It's also related to the number of tests. The undetected cases during the first wave (mostly mild or asymptomatic) likely was much higher. So the "cases" in early 2020 mostly show just a smaller part of the full count of infected or sick than during summer/autumn (northern hemisphere).
EDIT: As ulrich brodowsky and others have pointed out, one major cause for Europe's second wave having more cases (therefore a lower fatality rate) than the first (discussed at 7:33), is that countries are able to do much more testing now than before! In the first wave, many mild cases probably went undetected, since COVID-19 was so new. But now, after 8 months to prepare, a higher percentage of infected people are found. Which is a step in the right direction!
Man, I LOVE your videos! ;d Greeting from Bulgaria, btw! We here die and don't give a shit. People don't believe the virus exists :d;d;d;d The politicians are pressured by someone (I guess), whose interests are endangered by the lockdowns and don't do shit, as long as people die in hospitals, so that they don't carry the blame for it. ;d;d And we have a LOT of hospitals here, so we decided it is ok. Sadly the video ends on the 6th, when we used to have 6,6 deaths/million/day. Now 2 weeks later we went to 14,7 and half of the kids still go to school, many people don't wear masks, resturants and everything else (except clubs) are open, people are NOT getting tested at all (40-45% of tests are positive ;d) and we have a great argument on national TV whether mask are more harmful or helpful.. (nobody knows for sure). It's great. The memes are real.
OH! ..AND according to national TV - 26% of people said that they would vaccinate themselves, 45% would not. (cuz we real thugs). 29% don't know yet ;d;d;d ua-cam.com/video/28XRNGKXBIc/v-deo.html
I'd love to mention tje deaths and injuries due to car accidents: similar to how the data points out previous pandemics. In the United States alone roughly 40,000ppl die in a year and 4.4million ppl are injured.
Deaths: 40,000÷365days÷350
(US pop.)in millions gives a rough estimate of 0.3 deaths per million daily.
Injuries: 4.4million÷365days÷350
(US pop.)in millions gives a rough estimate of 35 injuries per million daily.
I thought a more wildly known cause of death, (such as car accidents) would be a good comparison to add to this data. 🤓🤓
@@axeblue Yeah, I always compared it like that. In Bulgaria we get a total of about 2 deaths per day from car accidents (all 7 mil. pop.) and currently 107 deaths form covid OFFICIALY.. but the total deaths in the country 2 weeks ago was was so much higher than what we officially count as covid deaths, so that number is probably much higher, or even double..
You could try to find the yearly average for cancer even though it isn’t a virus
@@SpringJungle ua-cam.com/video/cPadn_3PwGA/v-deo.html
Great video! Please paste this into your video description. It will add chapter-like separations into your video's playback bar. Edit them if you like:
[00:00] Intro
[00:26] Explanation 1: how to read graph, typical trajectory
[01:41] Explanation 2: fatality, logarithmic scale, world wide spread
[03:25] Explanation 3: comparing with past diseases, late death reporting
[05:15] Observation 1: seasonal trends
[06:11] Observation 2: considering population sizes
[07:10] Observation 3: europe's second wave
[08:20] Observation 4: US peak numbers
[09:00] Shift to quick animation + extra thoughts
[09:23] Thought 1: fatality of Influenza, fake data
[10:42] Thought 2: pros and cons of logarithmic scale
[12:06] Thought 3: "one in a million"
[13:58] Conclusion
[14:18] Covid-19 Loader
How dare you ignore the outro
@@HeidenLam Agreed
@@HeidenLam oh blimey, I actually forgot to include it in the timestamps. It's a banger of course!
[15:12] Outro
@@AlexAnder-fd9hlGood boi! * pats *
Thanks for that! That's a good idea, I'll put it in the description.
I love how for every COVID video you made, you usually used a different visualization. Really puts everything into perspective.
Thanks tiger!
@@Abacaba Wondering if you are doing a year-end COVID video?
I'm really surprised there are who still don't take this seriously.
Most of germany says "yeah it's all fake so f it"
@anonymous is the infection rate with minorities a correlation or a causation? We shouldn't be saying that that minorities are getting infected more, but be asking why. Otherwise we get politicians outright saying that more minorities are being killed, leading people to think it's something genetic
Surprisingly, I have taken it seriously while was still in China, and no governments took measures. But now when governments takes measures that do more harm than good, I do not take it seriously anymore. I mean yes is worse than flu, maybe ten times worse, but the measures are 100 times tough, while flu is not taken seriously at all. I always was pissed of seeing people with flu in public, going to work, or even working in public places. I was not aware by the toll death of the flu, but I really did not liked to get it. And still the authorities, even aware of deaths did not took measures. I mean permitting people to stay home at the first sign. And people had no choice but to go to work or whatever they need, like getting food or medicine. For example for my medicine I need to get not only to pharmacy, but to family doctor too, to get prescription. He cannot give it to me without medical letter from hearth doctor. The hearth doctor cannot give prescription without recommendation from family doctor. And this after few years, when my treatment is well known and established. So instead of a single trip to pharmacy, I am forced to do one trip for recommendation, one for medical letter, one for prescription, and the last for medicine itself, all involving long queues of many other peoples in the same situation. And this happened even there was a flu epidemic ongoing. And it was not only flu, there are a lot of other unpleasant things one can get from a crowd in hospital. And plus that all this bureaucracy kept busy medical personnel, while other sick people suffer from access to medical care. Now with the new trend, yes some of those steps are avoided, but the rules will return when the new politics will consider proper. Not proper for public health, but for own interests.
In a way I am glad that this global hysteria is raising awareness to hygiene, but since the measures are disproportionate to the danger, and other dangerously are not taken seriously, I stopped taking seriously this covid fashion too. Yes is more of a fashion than a real pandemic. I do not say that the virus does not exist. Actually the virus exists since long ago. As they say there are old fashion coronaviruses that cause the common cold, we know the common cold, we all had it, for centuries. And now suddenly in last two decades there comes three new of them. Really weird. And what is most weird is that I had this about 5 years ago. I got a nasty cold that almost wiped me out. the symptoms were really what they advertise now. It was so bad that i visited emergency room one day, but there were 100 more people waiting, so I decided to return home and suffer in my own bad than to suffer on a uncomfortable chair, exchanging viruses with others. But during the night got worse and I called an ambulance. I got some medicine prescription that did not quite helped. Anyway, the respiratory problems I blamed on my heart weakened some years before. Barely walking I looked for a heart doctor, but all were having appointments for 6 months in advance. Obviously they were busy writing prescriptions for those who needed medicine. So I just waited and weather got warmer an I got better on my own. After two years I managed to be examined and get my treatment. but still I have respiratory problems from that cold. Lung and throat doctors found nothing wrong. And I am not the only one in this situation, a friend of mine had it two years ago. Never got to the doctor. But was bad. I thought that we were hit by second sars version, but that was a decade ago and they declared it over. If it was over than what hit me and my friend and those hundreds from emergency room I saw, and maybe millions around the world? So for me this is just a common cold that is taken seriously disproportionately seriously. And the measures are doing more damage than help. So let see...
11,089,708Communicable disease deaths this year, 8 times more deaths due to other communicable diseases. What measures are against those?
417,988Seasonal flu deaths this year, so covid is three times worse. Was any measures against flu? at least three times less? I saw none.
1,436,073Deaths caused by HIV/AIDS this year so the death is comparable. Have we seen at least media coverage for this? not to say measures that ruins entire categories of people?
7,016,067Deaths caused by cancer this year. yeah , not transmissible, but still is 5 times more deaths than covid, there should be concern at lest. I was not quite hit by media coverage.
4,270,557Deaths caused by smoking this year, so three times more than covid. And yes, there are decades since this plague is under attack, but the war against it is incomparable with what happens with covid.
2,136,640Deaths caused by alcohol this year. Double than covid. But nobody talks about it.
916,090Suicides this year, almost as many, but this goes almost quietly.
1,153,198Road traffic accident fatalities this year. Yes the issue is covered, but barely, the world did not stopped because of it.
So As you see, there are 25 times more fatalities happening around the world, but the causes are ignored or barely acknowledged, while because of covid, the world almost halted. So yes, even initially I took it seriously, I do not take it anymore. And I will not take it while the other fatality causes are not taken seriously.
climate change too
anonymous the flu is deadly for the minorities, but we don’t ruin people’s lives because of it
very nicely done.
My read on lower fatality rate on second wave is simply detection is better now.
First wave, no one was really ready, not enough tests, low detection rate.
Second wave, everyone is now MUCH better prepared. Detection rate looks to be much more accurate.
My estimate is detection rate is 5x better in the second wave. This currently puts first and second waves as comparable (so far).
*Tips fedora*
My additional 2cents are that probably many of the really vulnerable people are already dead by now. Plus, countries aren't going to repeat Italy's mistake from the first wave where they put Covid patients into free spots in nursing homes once the hospitals overflowed. I'd guess most countries have special protocols for nursing homes this time around. So, those old people who made it to the second wave should be better protected -> less deaths.
Exactly what I was thinking during that part of the video, I was surprised it wasn't mentioned as a possible cause
@@TheFeldhamster the part about Italy putting covid patients in nursing homes is completely false... don't know where You heard that
The average age of COVID infections is going down, which could be partly due to more school infections and less nursing home infections. However it could also be due to better detection, as younger, healthier infected people might have never gotten tested back in spring.
I think you're right when you state both waves are comparable.
It's sad, because in Czechia more people are dying compared to the first wave.. :( Stay safe everyone.
It's a bit embarrassing seeing us in the upper right corner mid-October, topping the charts.
@@xxtradamxx Your comment made me really curious about czechia. Im from UK and don't know much about czechia politics but I always thought that they were reliable and not corrupt just like its german neighbours... am I thinking wrong??
@@NattyVega well, belgium topped the charts in the first and the second wave, you could have done worse. But you are right, it's kind of strange how both our countries are doing so bad this wave
@@supermotherfuckingvillain Ironically, I am from Czechia as well, the biggest problem would be that our politicians don't have very great reputation. One of the latest scandals was the head of the ministry of health was in restaurant without mask at night drinking in public with other people, when masks are required, being out at night is fully restricted, restaurants should be closed and there shouldn't be groups of people anywhere.
This virus is pension reform incarnate.
Hans Rosling is one my heroes! Really sad to hear he passed a couple years back.
Data visualisation can be so pretty.
katyj98 ikr
His book factfulness is a good read.
@@saoirb98 That is possibly the best book I have ever read in my life.
oh look at that you're not dead
Living in Argentina, I can't believe there are people who still don't take this seriously. 4 people in my family have already died due to coronavirus, yet almost everyone I know still treats the pandemic as if it is nothing. I did quarantine ever since march very strictly, even when nobody else did. And yet, my family was the one who suffered from it the most. Sadly people here are so selfish that they don't even care about the pandemic even after seeing people die from it first-handedly. Compare us to Uruguay for example. Here, we had one of the longest and most strict quarantines of the world, with extreme government pressure on raising awarness about the pandemic... and people still don't give a crap about it. In Uruguay, they had NO quarantine at all, and people were responsible enough to do quarantine on their own. And what are the results? 33000 dead in Argentina, + 27000 cases per million people, while on Uruguay it's 61 dead, and 1000 cases per million people.
I fell absolutely ashamed for my country. Sadly being apathetic and selfish is part of our culture.
I'm Polish and I would say we started very good .We closed borders 2 weeks ahead of Britain ,just after Italy .Blockage on motorways was longer than 60km forming chaos and
queues and the effect was really good ,people were wearing masks .Now I see tiredness people don't care about mask don't understand why they wear ,or wear not correctly. Nowadays is very bad we are probably one of the most affected country in Europe .It looks that we have to catch up backlog with cases and deaths.
There are people who still think that Covid is a hoax and it is all some government conspiracy (it’s not). I too know people who have suffered due to the virus. I am sorry for your loss.😥
Masks don't prevent you from being infected, they prevent you from spreading it (so I've heard). Sadly, because masks help others and not the one who wears them, many people don't choose to wear masks.
@@velociraptorgames7703 If it was some government conspiracy, how would it look different?
@@sdrc92126 If it was a conspiracy, then people wouldn't be dying. Plus, it's preventable by wearing a mask in public places, using hand sanitizer, and washing your hands often. If this was a whole conspiracy then why would the government spending billions of dollars to find a vaccine. It is NOT a conspiracy.
Czech Prime Minister: "We are best in COVID."
Czech people when the second wave arrive: "Yes, we are. Sadly."
They're slowing down
In France, the main reason why the apparent fatality rate is way lower now than during the first wave is because there is a lot more testing, thus increasing the number of cases without changing the number of deaths. I guess that might explain the difference
When it comes to Finland, almost non existing fatality is, because first wave struct on elderly. (Higher mortality)
Now second wave hit mostly on young adults and teens. Less lethal.
Yes I was about to say this. The same goes for the Netherlands as well. We're testing way way waaaay more than we did during the first wave. In the past 2 months testing capacity has been growing at an impressive rate. A bit over a month ago I couldn't get tested because of a shortage of testing capacity, but at the peak of the second wave everyone could get tested again even though the number of cases only had gone up. They're opening XL testing locations now to increase capacity even further. While better treatment also definitely helps, I think the effect is mostly explained by the increased testing capacity.
@Gerrit Haase of course it does. If you test more you will find many more non-lethal positive cases, thus lowering the death rate
@@jarskil8862 That is the other grim fact, the reason the seasonal flu is not that deadly is that we have adapted to it.
Those that would be susceptible at a low age have contracted it and died before having children. The same thing will likely happen with covid-19.
At least I hope so, because if it keep doings its rounds at current numbers, the world will _never_ be the same again.
There will be no more travels to foreign countries and other continents to experience other cultures.
@Gerrit Haase What is an absolute death rate, how can a rate be absolute? Never heard about that.
Can you recreate the dot graph but advance the death stat time to more closely match the responsible infection rate? Could clean up the visualization greatly
That's a good idea! This video was me experimenting with this type of GapMinder-inspired data visualization, so there's definitely ways I could tinker with it to make it more accurate / meaningful. If the death stat is advanced by a week or two, then countries should just move diagonally up and down those lines, in theory! (No circular motion)
@@Abacaba oh i do suggest u thinker with it... there's a lot of data you'r missing and by doing so misleading...
u know what i made a long comment addresing my issues with you'r video just look for it a second and...
@@Abacaba It would especially be useful to compare country policies over time such as the hotly debated Sweden. Though I think people are making a lot of false assumptions about the actual lock down measures
@@donotlike4anonymus594 I read your comment and your comment is stupid. It seems like you don't understand how data/statistics work. A data processing ALWAYS only shows a limited range of information/effects. And reputable data is always transparent about that, which carykh is. Which means, he doesn't make any claims above of what the data shows. Limited factors only give answer to limited questions. If you want answers to other questions, you have to use different factors/data.
You want an other answer to an other question which isn't adressed in this data (deathrate in different agegroups). Feel free to prepare such a graph to make a specific point you want to make if it makes you feel better.
@@justmy2cents652 I fully understand that tthis is the data and that the situation isn't ideal but that's not really the point of my argument... My issue with the data is that showing it this way is extremely misleading
This is a pandemic. The right question isn't outh to be the number of infections and... But how harmful they are to society
With the same way I can present u with some interesting that of people who drive or spend time in cars/in general on the road have a much higher chance of dying early then people who don't... Data wise... Perfectly fine
But the correlation doesn't mean cars or drives or...... Are to blame
Just imaging if government regulators and... Would've looked at correlations they would've banned cars in theory (well.... For example)
But the more data we look st the batter
The more data allows us to learn how people die and why
And by that we can implement better regulations and safeguards such as air bags...
Not making any claims of what the data shows mean nothing when the data involves such things as...oh idk recent/live deaths!
On to mention an ongoing pandemic...
Should data be tainted by emotions of course not but it is extremely irresponsible to present data this way...
The example I gave might a bit.... But the point is... The more data we look it the batter
Here on UA-cam the data isn't presented to researchers institutions or politicians.. That'll make important decisions impacting millions
In regards of my example obviously the regulators would take a closer look st the data....
But the average person is stupid and fearful
The average person doe snot look st the full data... People look at UA-cam videos and memes...
And that's my issue
U wonna graph something OK go a head but don't fear monger and try presenting as much of the data as possible
I'm not saying underplaying obviously but... Not mislead
Data's great but there is such a thing as lies by omitting
Europe: Retreat!
USA: You know what, I think I'll stick around
Europe in october: let's show the US how it's done
@@stefvnbrssl8601 sadly i don't think they will. USA is increasing drastically in deaths and cases too.
@@peacefindersimply5001 Lol, countries like belgium and czechia had 20k infections a day. That would equal to 600k new infections a day in the US. A less severe example: france, which would still equal 300k new cases in a day for the US
@@stefvnbrssl8601 yeah, when it comes to cases per population the USA isn't as bad as some other countries, and most places still are doing just fine in the USA but I have a feeling that will change this wave, this looks like it will be worse then the first wave in a way that dwarfs the previous.
@@peacefindersimply5001 My experience of USA winters vs those here in northern Europe is that they start a lot later in the US than here. I've enjoyed weeks of glorious warm sunshine in New York in November 20C/70F) whereas it is typically only 5-10C / 40-50F outside here by then. Sorry to say It is about to hit you very hard in such places.
7:47 I think the amount of testing that has gone up afaik probably plays into that a lot too. It's probably a combination of better treatment, it being the beginning of the second wave and more testing that explains the lower "instant measured fatality rate" (don't know how else to call it); because more testing means more cases are actually known; while most severe cases were probably known during the first wave too.
The testing is fake, PCR is not able to yield any diagnosis.
Yes perhaps this is the biggest weakness of an otherwise excellent video. Available testing in European countries was very low at the start of the pandemic but mass testing is available in wave 2 meaning many more of the less severe cases are picked up. This affects the denominator in the Case/Fatality Ratio (CFR). Covid hasn't suddenly become a lot less deadly - we are just detecting more cases. This is completely understood by medical science since the start of the pandemic but the lay person may not appreciate the difference here between the CFR and the Infection Fatality Ratio (IFR) the latter takes into account that a lot of cases arent being detected early on in the pandemic - and estimates of the Infection Fatality Ratio have only fallen only a little over time. It is almost as deadly in the second wave as the first so this is not a reason to relax.
As an illustration of the big differences in Cases/Deaths ratio (CFR) changing in Europe between Wave 1 (Spring) and Wave 2 (Autumn) is highlighted by testing capacity in the UK. Back in March /April the UK could only deliver 10,000 tests per day during the peak of the pandemic - when hundreds of thousands of people had Covid-19 at anyone time. Testing capacity increased slowly and before accelerating to around 100,000 tests per per day in May - but only after it had missed the peak of the first wave (which led to something like 1000 deaths per day at the start of April). Right now we have capacity for 500,000 tests per day - not far off enough to test 1% of the population every day (68million) and more than enough presently to test everyone who has symptoms as well as to start to rollout Chinese style mass testing of everyone in priority cities.
You are telling me... that i watched a 15 minute video of graphs... and did not lose focus on it and was actually intrigued. Great video!
Iran: i didn't even go out of the first wave.😎
U.S: Hold my beer
It's okay, when you have nuclear weapons, you'll be safe.
@@cmation8792 Europe: Hold my non existent freedom
Iran hav 50,000 coronawirus death
@@DesertStateInEU russia = europe?
"Europe is experiencing a second wave of COVID"
US: *experiencing a 3rd wave*
Nah it's still a first wave, the wave is just unrealistically wide and tall, basically has waves in a wave
@@Mauritanian1960 i hate how true it is
US is on the Infinity Wave
_ref to 2b2t_
@@kaiwut please, shut up
no
"Well you see, its extremely implausible that so many disparate groups and people would all join together in a conspiracy like that" very true, but unfortunately if the people vulnerable to conspiracy theories were able to grasp that simple concept, we wouldn't have conspiracy theories at all.
Lmao Singapore just chilling at the 0 fatality zone but still getting high infections per day
@_𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪__𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪_ wdym
@_𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪__𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪_ also make your name shorter
@_𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪__𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪_ one of the most efficient country in asia is a regime
~ American with their turdist ideology
@_𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪__𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪_ oh you poor fragile democracy maniac cant accept something are just better at non-democracy state
@_𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪__𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪𒐪_
A few things to clarify:
while chewing gum is banned from being sold, you can still bring it over the border and chew it. While gay sex is banned, the government doesn't intefere. You can still have same sex relationships( my mom has a colleague who does and i know a friend who's also gay), the government just wouldn't acknoledge it legally and you won't get in trouble for participating in it. Otherwise events like the Pink Dot Parade couldn't exist. You can drink alcohol at night, just not in public spaces. I think this was the result of one of the riots we had a while back. Capital punishment for drugs to my memory has recently been more lenient. You'll still get in a ton of trouble for owning or selling non prescription drugs, capital punishment is just less likely now. So essentially while Singapore has laws like these in place, truth is the government closes one eye for some of these crimes as long as you don't broadcast it.
A few laws I'm completely okay with is ones relating to the matter of littering, graffiti and toilet flushing. It keeps public spaces clean and it isn't particularly disruptive. But honestly the one with suicide and POFMA is complete bs. We also really need to change policies on how we treat single mothers.
Yes, you can purchase houses in Singapore. It's just incredibly costly since land is a limited resource. The cheapest landed properties will cost you a minimum of almost $2 million sgd, depending on the market. Cars are expensive to keep car ownership to a minimum to prevent traffic congestion. Since public transport is generally decent, you dont need one anyway. Yes, cost of living is pretty high but a huge contributing factor is the high cost of housing, less so daily living expenses. Meals can cost as little as SGD3.00 or as high as SGD5 depending on where you purchase it. Of course, basic living expenses have been increasing over the years.
Just imagine how much MORE worse than the flu it would have been already, had the world not taken all these lockdown measures.
Very good video, thank you!
T-cell immunity (or innate immune response) is the real protection happening with SARS-COV-2 , antibodies have little to do with it.
Previous past Cor/ virus infections are common and immunity is long lasting. Even though SARS-Cov-2 is considered a novel virus it is easily recognized and understood by the T-cells memory recall and recognition RNA deciphering mechanisms. All Corona viruses share similar borrowed and hijacked proteins, molecular parts and genetic code sequencing. This is precisely why, for the vast majority of the population, the infections are either very mild or completely benign. Anyone with a general normal functioning immune system, has by the statistical data, essentially almost a zero percent chance of serious infection, or long term effects.
Any vaccine at this stage of the (endemic equilibrium) high case count, low casualty numbers, with a low (RO) value (viral stasis) will have little or no benefit whatsoever. Focused protection on the small, subset population that are very old or severely immunocompromised is the only viable option.
Naturally acquired Herd immunity is not an objective opinion or hypothesis, a theory, a strategy or a debate, it is biological law, like gravity or the laws of thermodynamics. It is the absolute truth, it never changes, alters, wavers or is effected by political, or monetary agenda. It exists and regularly occurs in every single pathogenic virus that has ever existed, whether anyone believes in it or not!
All further funding and focus that is being wasted at a colossal scale on lock-downs, that are doing far more harm than good, should be funneled exclusively to the susceptible target group population, where it will actually have significant benefit and let the virus pass through the general healthy population at a normal rate.
Any deviation from this narrative from the scientific community and government officials, will only prolong the suffering and cost far more lives to be lost, which is nothing less than crimes against humanity. Instead of trying desperately to prove to the world that they were right, it is long overdue time for all scientists to admit consensus and follow the exact public health protocol that has been unspokenly used for every pandemic in modern history, whereas naturally acquired population immunity (herd immunity) is the principal driving force and Not in refute.
1) ua-cam.com/video/PuZ0WmC8uP0/v-deo.html 2) ua-cam.com/video/5y51GICqL9E/v-deo.html / 3) ua-cam.com/video/BkgTqkL-bqY/v-deo.html
4) ua-cam.com/video/q6LB2Rp44zA/v-deo.html
@@ghwk-phd2784 Herd immunity itself isn't a strategy nor political, but going for natural herd immunity certainly is. Smallpox wasn't eradicated by natural herd immunity; Ebola isn't fought with herd immunity; herd immunity is not the only way. This virus is too infectious and too harmful to not fight with lockdowns. We know this because we have seen what happens when you don't: you get freezer trucks used as morgues.
We do not have enough healthcare workers for 'focused protection' of the people who are at risk--which is a larger group than you make it out to be--and while young and healthy people certainly have a very low hospitalization rate, very low times everyone is too many people. Going for group immunity is not a viable option. The most viable option is keeping the virus in check with lockdowns where necessary until vaccines have been developed and distributed to enough people for an artificial herd immunity. We know it's possible to keep Covid in check because countries like New Zealand and many in Europe (before the second wave hit) managed it, and Europe would still be managing it if many governments weren't as slow to react.
Yes, if we don't use lockdowns and let the virus spread, humanity will survive like it has done with past pandemics, but it wasn't and wouldn't be pretty. Also, it's not like we did nothing in past pandemics. In fact, we have one pandemic which clearly demonstrates how bad it can get when you don't respond: the Spanish flu. Governments around the world mostly ignored it because of the world war going on at the time and it was devastating. I don't want to make the same mistake with Covid.
@@Huntracony For simplicity of explanation, there are basically two (type) classifications of pathogenic virus. First (type) High virulence/low infectious virus ( ie EBOLA, AIDS, Rabies etc.) 85-99% death rate regardless of age or health status, but very low level infectious rate. (relatively very difficult to contract or transmit). Second (type) Low virulence/high infectious virus (ie influenza, Corona ) ubiquitous, (very common) extremely high infectious rate, but very low level virulence. Essentially almost a zero percent chance of death among the general healthy population with normal functioning immune systems.
@Gilga Mesh They're not just entitled, its basically the law, the will of the people, you can't decide it for the people what's best, you can only inform, too bad people don't believe in you as government because you're a liar.
I've only seen the quarantine measures in the first 3 weeks, then its was back to business as usual, even then I saw because I was driving my car thought the empty city, not a real quarantine.
If the governments had power to control a population in that way, we would be dealing with something far more dangerous than a pandemic, that would be a global fascist totalitarian state.
You can't lock people, in absolutely no circumstance that's justifiable, what would you do? shot at people that don't stay at home?
jail them? now you just made the problem worse, if there's not enough hospitals for everyone what makes you think that there would be enough cells in the jail?
Of course the population would revolt against that, its a danger far to greater than the virus.
"No transit, no business, no nothing"
I prefer to die from the virus instead of dying from famine.
I would prefer to die in the revolt, at least I would be fighting for freedom.
Why is that so hard to understand baffles me.
@Gilga Mesh lol, now I saw your name, it makes sense you want genocide, lol, I'm ROTFL
A lovely video and the graph animation and explanation is great.
The only thing i'd add is that a lot of scientific institutions claims that there are A LOT more unknown cases of COVID 19 than those that are counted, bouncing from 3 times as much up to 10 times as much. You could compare these figures as an hypothetical situacion when talking about other diseases like Influenza :)
I'd really love to see a tracing graph for germany!
Or could you release the source code?
Yet another incredible way of visualising data! Amazing video, Cary, keep up the good work and stay safe 🙌
"The US ... in its uniquely bronze colour"
Dude, Canada was right there lol
People who think the numbers are fake should watch this video. The patterns identified makes it very hard for it to be just a number randomly chosen.
T-cell immunity (or innate immune response) is the real protection happening with SARS-COV-2 , antibodies have little to do with it.
Previous past Cor/ virus infections are common and immunity is long lasting. Even though SARS-Cov-2 is considered a novel virus it is easily recognized and understood by the T-cells memory recall and recognition RNA deciphering mechanisms. All Corona viruses share similar borrowed and hijacked proteins, molecular parts and genetic code sequencing. This is precisely why, for the vast majority of the population, the infections are either very mild or completely benign. Anyone with a general normal functioning immune system, has by the statistical data, essentially almost a zero percent chance of serious infection, or long term effects.
Any vaccine at this stage of the (endemic equilibrium) high case count, low casualty numbers, with a low (RO) value (viral stasis) will have little or no benefit whatsoever. Focused protection on the small, subset population that are very old or severely immunocompromised is the only viable option.
Naturally acquired Herd immunity is not an objective opinion or hypothesis, a theory, a strategy or a debate, it is biological law, like gravity or the laws of thermodynamics. It is the absolute truth, it never changes, alters, wavers or is effected by political, or monetary agenda. It exists and regularly occurs in every single pathogenic virus that has ever existed, whether anyone believes in it or not!
All further funding and focus that is being wasted at a colossal scale on lock-downs, that are doing far more harm than good, should be funneled exclusively to the susceptible target group population, where it will actually have significant benefit and let the virus pass through the general healthy population at a normal rate.
Any deviation from this narrative from the scientific community and government officials, will only prolong the suffering and cost far more lives to be lost, which is nothing less than crimes against humanity. Instead of trying desperately to prove to the world that they were right, it is long overdue time for all scientists to admit consensus and follow the exact public health protocol that has been unspokenly used for every pandemic in modern history, whereas naturally acquired population immunity (herd immunity) is the principal driving force and Not in refute.
1) ua-cam.com/video/PuZ0WmC8uP0/v-deo.html 2) ua-cam.com/video/5y51GICqL9E/v-deo.html / 3) ua-cam.com/video/BkgTqkL-bqY/v-deo.html
4) ua-cam.com/video/q6LB2Rp44zA/v-deo.html
@@ghwk-phd2784 tf are you babbling about
@@Marnige the fellow you were referring to was talking about the immune system and how to develop immunity
@@ryanjuanico4498 my point is how is that related to my comment
Has any single country acquired herd immunity yet? There are still huge number of cases in many countries every day and many ppl dying every day.
Nice way of showing the data...
I would have liked a log and linear animation right after each other. Many people are not use to seeing a log plot, thus showing the animations side by side og after each other would help the understand how big a difference one decade (factor of 10) actually is. You actually have 4 decades here, thus there is a huge difference on lower left and upper right.
I love that China is not doing any suspicious at all...
1000 cases per day and climbing, and then it just stops?
Yeah no...
Sorry, we Chinese back to normal from April.
I have relatives in mainland China. 0 case? Might be a lie. But a large outbreak? Definitely not.
Yeah yes. People need to stop listen to western media and go China and see it with their own eyes.
One reason that there is a lower fatality rate may be because the age of people getting the coronavirus, since many schools are reopening.
Clinics also know how to deal with it better, so many more patients can survive that wouldn't have before.
other one I think, is that now, several countries have better conditions in making more tests, therefore lowering the subnotification
@@ViNiMiCoRRizA Now that you say it, I think that's probably the main reason. More tests lead to more confirmed cases, but not more confirmed deaths, because most deaths already get tests.
Czechia: 👁👄👁
@@ghwk-phd2784 Your entire argumentation doesn't work because you can be infected multiple times: www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/your-health/reinfection.html
So herd immunity cannot work and therefore the strategy would be the worst possible option.
(Also, I noticed that all your sources are UA-cam videos from channels without that "confirmation" checkmark, so likely just regular people. No scientific institutions, no known experts, no articles, no media outside of UA-cam, … And none of the four videos links sources (one vaguely points to an analysis company). Not very trustworthy.)
And in general: Why do you comment that here? This thread has nothing to do with herd immunity.
THIS IS BY FAR THE BEST STATISTICAL VIDEO REGARDING COVID 19 I HAVE SEEN
Any chance you could post an interactive version of this somewhere, where we could select a given country and animate its trajectory/explore on our own?
I really liked that you explained every single detail of the graph so that it is understandable for the majortiy of people; and your conclusion at the end was really good!
Oh Cary, you are proceeding so much statistical data, and even explaining it, and even visualizing it in understandable way. But somehow, for some reason, the data for this particular disease is the most 'welcomed'. In your shoes, if I would like to improve myself (via visitor/s comments and ideas) I would definitely use this theme more often. Cheers ~~~
In the second wave, the death rate % is lower mainly because european countries now count the amount of cases much better; in Spain the government has said that they detected 10% of the cases in march while now they detect 70%, so that is the main cause over europe.
8:21 Martinique: I am speed
i feel a good chunk of the new lower fatality in europe is due to much improved testing so more people with the virus are detected as opposed to the first wave. i havent actually looked deeply into those country's testing though so its just a guess of mine
@「mellowfrow」 my guess is the people are now bored to be afraid so much, despite all the media's efforts. And also don't forget - the deathrate is following with 10-20 days delay. So, the big time came just 2-3 weeks ago, aaand this means the deathrates should catch in the next days.
You should make a linear vs logarithmically chart
It would have helped to show it just for a few seconds.
@@57thorns yes
This is my favorite visualization you've done on this topic, I see you things every time you replay the clip, and I find that counterclockwise curve fascinating.
Really cool! You could offset the deaths data by ~14 days to get a less circular trend which shows ~cases and the deaths associated with those cases. More abstract but might be a more clear representation of the data we're after.
Love your stuff!!!
Omg, this is amazing! Incredible piece of work. I just expected the graph rolling and nothing more. We need subtitles to all languages.
Well that was a cool video! Can you make the next one on active cases to help us visualize it better- I know you are basically copy + pasting the data from worldometers, but you help us visualize it so much better!
Thanks Cary, another wonderful piece of work. I just hope you get recognition one day.
In NZ we say " he deserves a beer ". Love to buy you one.
Europe has now a lower apparent mortality rate because we test more than before. A lot more. That's all.
Yeah. But now Sweden is seeing an increase in positivity rates as well. Very troubling. In the capital Stockholm they saw a positivity rate of 20 %. In the summer, that rate was much lower, I can't remember exactly, but I think down to 4-5 %.
maybe it sounds harsh, but i think the most vulnerable persons already died in the 1st wave, so mortality rate should be lower with every follow-up-wave, following darwins law
@@BrainMcFly Nah, there are plenty of fat, elderly and generally unhealthy Americans left.
We should keep in mind that South America has pretty mild seasons. Most of the population is between the tropic of cancer and the tropic of capricorn and many of the most infected countries there are entirely within the tropics. Even if seasonality has a very strong effect, I don't think it is going to matter very much in Peru.
Lima for example has a difference between summer average highs and winter average highs of 8 degrees.
Compare:
Berlin, with a difference of 21 degrees,
Paris, with a difference of 18 degrees,
London, 15 degrees,
Washington DC, 24 degrees,
Moscow, 28 degrees,
Beijing, 29 degrees,
Seoul, 28 degrees,
New Delhi, 19 degrees.
Cary: Suppose 10 people have died in a car crash today, then we would never have a car crash again
*Car crash death rates dropped to 0%*
Lovely. This is probably the best graphical representation of Covid-19. Great job. keep up
the ant countries flying around omg XD
Because this visualisation is based on ratios and percentages, the smaller population countries will be moving a lot more than the larger population ones.
@@deegobooster I know, I just found it funny with how fast the tiny dots flew
@@deegobooster That's kinda dumb, because there are lot of country we can barely or can't even see on the graph, we can't even identify them. As well a big circles are hiding other circles behind them.
@@jean-baptistechopin1799 The creator of the video has stated in the video itself that this was them experimenting with new visualisation techniques.
@@deegobooster Yes, I get that. The thing is it's hard to read and unclear most of the times, while a graph should be quickly readable/understandable.
This explains everything in just 1 graph.
Not only the graph is amazing, your explanation puts it all in perspective.
Thank you for making this.
Quick suggestion: instead of colors representing continents, why not have them represent mask use? I feel like it would be a good way to show a correlation between masks and COVID.
And other public health measures!
You could do the same visualization at lower levels, like US states
This visualization is amazing. Well done! I would love to see this as an on-going monthly visualization until COVID ends
for the color of the continent :
you should use the Olympic color.
I didn't know circles on Olympic means continents until now. Thanks random UA-cam comments.
I like how this graph shows fine gradiations between smaller percentages, as a lot of the countries spend much of their time in that area, but it is frustrating to see countries go well above that and to not have a very intuitive way of knowing where they are. That gap between 10% and 100% is represented by a very small space, but it is actually a huge difference.
Ok, so America got 126K cases today.
Many people don't even care.
And in March, when we had 30K, we had tons of lockdowns and everybody was wary of each other.
4x the cases, but 4x *less* awareness of this virus.
(I hope the new president can fix this situation!)
I was recently saying to my husband that what I wanted to see was a Hans Rosling style graph of covid, using a per capita context. THANK YOU for assembling this. I don't think or know if Hans has gotten around to it himself yet, but this is just what I wanted to see.
AWESOME informations
Brazilian here, i can't say this for the whole south america, or even the whole Brazil.
but seasons here are not straight forward as they are in the north.
here summer doesn't necessarily means hotter and winter does not necessarily means colder, and even when it does. the difference might not be that significant.
you have places where there are barely any difference between seasons and weird situations where the summer might be actually colder because of higher rainfall and winters are somewhat hot because droughts or places where it pretty much feels like god is throwing dice with the temperature every day with no regard for anything
The virgin European multiple waves vs the Chad American single big wave
I'm at home-office since 2020-03-20, when our president (of germany) told us it might be a good idea to stay at home - if possible. I literally left my bureau as-is and never went there since today, because I am in the very comfortable situation that I can do that and that I am allowed to work from home. Since it's now nearly a year, I'd really appreciate an update video like this, because you're doing a very great job.
Meanwhile in Poland: Ah yes, enslaved Corona virus.
Dude of this website made and extra poland-version: mackuba.eu/corona/poland
Well done! First time i see the rolling effect of cases/deaths..
It must be allot of effort to make this, respect!!!
I made some on paper of deaths in a timeline but I stopped, to much countries. Especially my country; Belgium. On March 10th I saw that belgium rised more quickly than many other countries.
Then my government didn’t respond until March 21.
Now the second wave isn’t any better.
Hope it’s all over soon, cheers!
Yeah and just today:
- 20.000 people without masks in germany, leipzig had a demo against the covid rules
- Thousands of people in america made a party on the streets because bidon won the election.
And I'm sitting here, not going into the cinema or playing football for a whole year now. GG guys.
You do great! You help saving lives stay strong
so, dont just sit in your room all day... get fresh air, sunlight and exercise every day or you'll get sick from anything. also eat healthy. staying locked in your room makes you sick in other ways.
@@zaimzainal6635 Thanks for your headsup, my friend. Stay safe
@@StopThisIsBatCountry Thanks for your tipps, I already do that. I still work and do workout at home. :)
I know. It's infuriating to see how people disregard the rules, effectively prolonging this whole ordeal for everyone and causing more people to suffer and die. I have several of the known risk factors due to disability so I'm very afraid to get infected. My life is very limited because I can't trust other people to take the proper precautions. I have to wait it out, until enough people are vaccinated and even then, I will have to be very careful. Unfortunately, I will probably not be able to be vaccinated due to lower immune system, so I will have to hope that many others will, especielly those in my close proximity.
The chart sped up looks like that one dude who goes like "That's it I'm doin it"
Then instantly regrets it but then everyone's like "Well he did it so I can do it" then it's too late and everyone's just fuckin vibing in the death zons
FYI: belgium counted "too much" deaths because they supposed that all the undefined deaths were due to covid
Yes, 2711 of them to be exact, or 20.7% of the total deaths reported on 9 November.
@@Lttlemoi 20%, that is about half a step on the logarithmic graph. So on this graphs, not that much.
They were more in line with excess mortaility then other countries, certainly in the beginning: www.vrt.be/vrtnws/en/2020/05/16/excess-mortality-in-belgium-highest-since-world-war-ii-the-co/
If Abacaba becomes a news channel, Im gonna be their #1 supporter
Those graphs you make are really helpful! I’m always very careful when I have to go out but here in Italy not everyone is like that. My aunt doesn’t even believe that this pandemic is real.. sometimes I really wanna know what is inside of those people’s brain..
I have been waiting for your video for a long time. Thanks for the great work!
I once got the flu 2016
It sucked a lot.
Pretty much everyone got it at least on in his life. It sucks. Still very different from covid tho
@7:40
It’s mainly because testing is way better and we see more reported cases, even the mild ones. I think most experts agree on that.
Better prepared hospitals are a miner reason, too.
There are parts of India with larger seasonal temperature swings that Paris.
hang on. really?, apart from up in the Himalyas, i just assumed the rest of India experienced a hot and humid and wet/monsoonal summer and dry and mild winter. Like the tropics. does a larger than assumed amount of India experience colder winters?
@@peepeetrain8755 part of it is that India actually isn't all that far south. I.E. New Delhi is pretty far north, 29 degrees or something, and also continental, not coastal. The other is that it's just so hot that is not so much cold winters as facemeltingly hot summers (or, they would feel facemeltingly hot to someone from a cooler climate).
Good work, please plot the moving cumulative cases and deaths perhaps with a delay on cases 2-3 weeks to roughly align
And again, for instance at 8:03 there is another explanantion, I already gave below: during the 2nd wave the test capacity was iin order, i.e. we (Netherlands) could test what we wanted tot test. So anyone with a symptom that could be COVID can get a test. Many do... in the 1st wave, only really sick people got tested..... so the % positive was much, much higher. I actually think you have to add this to your video!!
Yup, video is pretty flawed without this fact.
thanks man, love Hans Rosling and Gapminder, really cool way to show more than 2 dimensions on a data set.
I believe Rosling also worked with Max Roser, who is part of Our World in Data. It's a really great org with great data visualizations, including with COVID-19. Actually they collaborated with the Kurzgesagt channel as well. :)
I don't know why diseases spread so fast in cold weather but so slow in hot weather
Cold weather forces people to go inside, packing everyone in and allowing more spread.
It's unknown, same with the normal flu, it only spreads in cold seasons (winter) and not in warm seasons (summer)
@all - oh c'mon people. All viruses are 'assembled' of 3 things - RNA code, proteins and fats (to hold em together). UV light is known to destroy/dismantle proteins and fats, it just burns them. And the UV (as being the most high frequency illumination) is most absorbed by the atmosphere. So, when the atmosphere is thinnest? When the Sun is the highest - at moon and at summer, at mountain peaks etc. Every time and place where it is easy to get sunburn - such time and place is a extermination place for all kind of viruses. And all alive, in fact. But most animals are big enough to get just burn at the surface. Now viruses and bacteria - they are small, very small, so such conditions are deadly to them. So, the same said with few words - in the summer all the viruses and bacteria in the air are dying (disassembling) at much faster rate. The same in another wording - Uncle Sam is ill from Covid. So he touches a doorknob. If it is mild temperature, not much Sun (like in spring and autumn) - the viruses he leaves will live for 1-2 days. But, if there is Sun shining over that doorknob - the viruses will die in 1-2-3 hours. So, the transfer rate in such conditions is much lower - as the airborne + surface ways are the most 'used' by the viruses.
The novel coronavirus spread faster in cold weather than in hot weather. However, it couldn't survive in places with super cold climate like Greenland
You can make a number of guesses to explain it away. Notably, the R number of many diseases tends to decrease somewhat during the summer as people go outside, where transmission is less likely.
Absolutley commendable work! Thank you for really giving these numbers a face that can be understood intuitively.
It is a pity that so many people refuse the facts because they are too insecure to crunch the numbers themselves and/or too distrustful to trust others to do it correctly. This here is a shining example of how to get it _right._
9:43 grande Chile 💪
Que mal que lo mostró porque Chile es uno de los más afectados en términos de casos/muertes por millón
@@TunaBear64 Argentina se les rie en la cara
4:12
Abacaba : Explaining the 2014 Ebola bubble
France Bubble : "HEY LOOK AT ME..... PLS"
Ngl if he was consistent at making covid 19 videos he would have 1 million subs by now.
Amazing visualisation, thanks Cary!
4:34 I haven't gotten through the whole video, but Croatia just passed 100% of deaths? I'm not an expert on these types of graphs, so I might be mistaken.
well there were 0.1 cases and 0.1 deaths lol
He explains it. When the deaths lag behind the new cases, the ratio of deaths/new cases is high.
Your videos are always so well made
8:20 Another possibility is that, as COVID kills off the most-vulnerable, the remaining people are, well, *less*-vulnerable, and therefore less-likely to die.
Belgium is having a choose your own adventure on the chart
"One in a million"
Me: TWICE :)
THE BEST SCIENTIFIC COVIDDATA ANALYSIS VIDEO EVER!! AN ENORMOUS QUANTITY OF DATA WITH AN EXTREME CLEAR AND LUCID EXPLANATION ATTACHED!! @Abacaba, you were always extremely good, but video is really pure art in its best scientific form!
So the pandemic is still strong because the virus mutated? Welp, we're doomed.
The virus is still slowed by masks and soap so wash you ahnds
@@monirulislam7985 I use all the precautions, sadly a bunch of people I know don't.
Probably because not enough of us are getting herd immunity because we are locking down
Lockdowns or not, herd immunity is FAR FAR away. Around 60% of the US population needs to catch COVID-19 in order to have some sort of herd immunity in the country, and that would result in a catastrophic amount of deaths, so no, herd immunity is not the solution, it is a very unethical, stupid, and desperate solution.
@@gameshock3897 even with shielding the vulnerable?
I think a big reason for the second wave to come in with a much lower fatality rate is because the amount of tests taken is much higher than in the first wave. In Belgium, and most other countries in Europe, we only had the test capability to test the ones in need of urgent care (the extreme cases). In the first wave we recommended people with symptons to stay at home and not get tested accept if it gets that bad that you need to go to the hospital. Now in the second wave we do have way more test capability that all the positive cases gets counted and not only the worst cases.
Here comes the bots. Carykh.
And they have ridiculous names...
Love how you don't just throw data up for interpretation, but you actually talk about how it may be misleading or how the data may not be accurate. Great work.
China in every repeat is just like:
*Catching everyone's eyes*
*Resting in X-axis*
*Suddenly bouncing to be eye-catching again*
*Final settlement*
over and over again
8:20
The lower fatality rate could be because covid tests are easier to get and more common, so people that just stayed home sick get counted now too
I had covid in march but didn't have to go to the hospital. There were no tests back then so I don't show up in this graph, while people everywhere get tested now
@Gerrit Haase oh yeah, it's death per million not death per covid, you are very right. my bad
Suggestion: Make a static version of the graph as a heat map of where countries have spent time. This would encode some of the patterns of motion into a general graph.
Cary: i luv the bubble map. For your Covid videos it would be great if you could separate the different continents, or make a web page where you can add or subtract continents/ countries for comparison. I lost tract of my country with the all the countries at once.
Your videos are always informative and very illustrative, with an easy to understand narrative.
Thank you for your work!
Edit: additions
Stay safe, stay sane, be well
it would be really cool if you released the code(?) for generating specifically the second part of the video, where you trail one specific country. i would've liked to play around with a few specific countries whose trail was not shown in the video
otherwise, really great video as usual, keep it up and take care!
Amazing work, I liked the idea of using this Hans Rosling 5-dimensional plot.
However I have to say that the result does not work as well as in Hans Rosling plot because the nature of the data is quite different:
- Data on Covid-19 is not homogeneus across countries: both reported cases and reported deaths are dependent on number of tests and criteria to consider or not a covid positive or death.
- Also data is not homogeneous across time: the situation in Europe in the first and second wave is quite different. Now there is more testing and doctors know better how to treat patients. For this reason it is difficult to have a good comparison between the first and the second wave. That's the thing that people are trying to figure out today, the concern of everyone today is whether or not we will reach a situation as bad as the first wave.
Anyway, these are the data sets available...
You can do a second version of this data visualization with some changes in order to obtain a more smooth behavior of the data:
- Use a 7-day average instead of the daily data.
- Apply a lag between cases a and death so the peak of the waves match.
- Maybe use another dimension instead of country population for the bubble size, or just plot all bubbles of the same size.
This way you may eliminate some erratic behaviour of the data.
I'm pretty sure he already used some sort of data smoothing. He talked about the single death in new Zealand which smoothly brought the death count up and back down to 0
I'm from Germany and a huge aspect why the mortality is so low is because the people who get infected are mostly young people like teenagers who just do party's anyway. The first Wave were many older people and those have a higher mortality rate
Very interesting! I am curious though about what your thoughts are on the slow ramping up over time of available testing? I don’t think that testing was fully available for Europe generally during the 1st wave, whereas definitely for the second wave anyone (at least here in France) who has the sniffles can get a test for reassurance. You mention that the lower death rate for the second wave is likely due to better care, but surely it can also be heavily influenced by testing of sufferers showing little or no symptoms?
Great video!!! I saw this video by UCSF 2 months ago where they talk about the declining deaths rates. Here is a little summary:
- It was reasonable to think that maybe more young people were getting infected because it was summer and we were just itching to go outside too bad. There is probably some component of that.
- The truth is that the death rate is declining across all age groups, including the elderly
- More people are wearing masks now and masks reduce the amount of virus that the wearer is exposed to, which in turn reduces the severity of the disease (and chance of dying from it)
- There is probably some element of herd immunity especially in places that were hit particularly hard at the beginning of the pandemic, like NYC, Italy, and Sweden (remember that Sweden went with the no-restriction approach)
- Some improvement in treatments (remdesivir, steroids)
- The virus is NOT becoming weaker
- We know there is always a 2-3 week lag between when a person gets infected and dies from covid19, but this lag does NOT explain the decline in death rate, which has been going on for ~2 months
- This is not from the video, but I read in a different source that it's likely that many of the people who are the most susceptible to severe disease have already died from it at the beginning of the pandemic, so the death rate at the start of the pandemic was higher than the current death rate. Keep in mind the number of detected cases was lower.
Amazing visual representation! For the per day/per year issue Id say the best representation (and the one we've used in Australia) is the 7-day rolling average. Might solve your issues!
You are a bless for people like me who want to see very well done and visual pleasant analysis but don't have time and all knowledge to perform them without damaging other tasks of my day. Thanks.
I found this a very useful visualization. I don't have the same facility with data, but I have done some rudimentary calculations with a few places, including the US and Ontario (where I live). To get a "death rate" you seem to be relating the deaths reported on a given day with the new cases reported on the same day. I have found that if one relates the deaths reported in a week with the new cases 3 weeks previously, then you get a fairly steady "case fatality rate" of approximately 1.7%. Don't know if you can modify your calculations to reflect this.
8:00 It's also related to the number of tests. The undetected cases during the first wave (mostly mild or asymptomatic) likely was much higher. So the "cases" in early 2020 mostly show just a smaller part of the full count of infected or sick than during summer/autumn (northern hemisphere).
I like the squares dropping in the shape of the flags. Please make an update :)