A true masterclass in interviewing. A smart interviewer who likes to listen (but not to his own words), who manages to produce a clean Q&A without permanent interruption or talking at the same time, who gives interesting questions that deserve (and get) original answers, and, most astonishing, who doesn't look utterly dumb compared to Nassim. Looking around on UA-cam it might seem otherwise like a tragedy that one of the smartest and most pragmatic persons of our times seems to be constantly interviewed by embarrassing jerks who interrupt him all the time. Very enjoyable and informative interview.
Mr. Taleb has been reading 30-60 hours a week since youth. His enthusiasm for knowledge and teaching is fantastic. I’ve finished fooled by randomness and am halfway though antifragile. Randomness is really good, the mind discounts luck in our achievements
Nassim Taleb is Nassim Taleb. When he talks, you listen. Nothing else needs to be said. However, it must be pointed out that Erik Schatzker did a great job interviewing him. Kudos.
@@DerDop Read his books. It's hard work because he waffles. But if you can make it out the other side, you won't regret it. My favourite is Fooled by Randomness.
Praise to Mr. Nassim. Everytime I read or listen to this man speak, i always get nervous as his ideas always forces me to re-assess my risk appetite. I think he is one of the greatest thinkers of our time and I'm grateful to have learned so much from him. He is the counterbalance to mainstream media's "stocks only go up" nonsense.
By YouSum Live 00:00:00 Nasim Taleb discusses risk, probability, and anti-fragility. 00:02:23 Importance of early reaction to pandemics for cost-effectiveness. 00:04:01 Misconceptions about pandemics: tail risk, economy, and trade-offs. 00:07:00 Strategic measures like face masks to reduce pandemic effects. 00:10:45 Impact of risk aversion on economic growth and behavior. 00:12:08 Evaluating systems' anti-fragility post-pandemic for future readiness. 00:17:33 Three categories of industries post-pandemic: helped, harmed, maimed. 00:20:02 Potential consequences of pandemic on globalization and supply chains. 00:21:16 Smart reorganization of globalization for robustness. 00:21:42 Fragility in supply chains, essential for local industries. 00:22:00 Identifying and addressing sources of fragility crucial for resilience. 00:24:03 Importance of tail-risk protection for catastrophic loss prevention. 00:24:26 Survival strategy: take risks but ensure survivability. 00:30:09 No one is bigger than the market, even the Fed. 00:37:04 Need for insurance before the crisis, not during. 00:39:30 Private markets offer insulation from short-term market pressures. 00:41:38 Private equity can be misused for hiding mistakes. 00:42:07 Risk of US dollar losing reserve currency status. 00:42:54 Impact of US election on global consequences. 00:43:16 Trump's deal-making logic and contradictions. 00:47:31 Reading history for wisdom in handling pandemics. By YouSum Live
Taleb's point that the ancients' responses to plagues, creating quarantines and supporting local merchants, was much more successful than the modern day response was spot on. The total shutdown of the U.S. economy, and the catastrophic damage it has caused and will continue to cause, will be remembered as the single greatest failure of the U.S. government's response to this virus. Overall a fantastic interview.
@@dariostrassli7024 "The total shutdown of the U.S. economy" was the biggest mistake they made. Based on the scientific data from the CDC, the virus may only be considered "deadly" if you're over 70 years old with comorbidities. 10 times more people will die due to the economic devastation, and all the associated repercussions, than the virus will kill.
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I took the risk dealing with Luiz to be in charge of my trade and finally end up with perfect testimony.his platform is amazing and very straightforward
Useless conversation. No questions about why Scandinavia has one of the lowest SARS CoV II cases with the world's lowest mask usage. Other places like Sydney Australia doesn't have significant mask usage, and has a low incidence rate. Meanwhile countries outside of Asia that have required face masks have not improved their lot. Asia seems like a special case, maybe because many of the countries have already experienced viruses from bats.
i love how they cut the part where he was clearly about to speak about the U.S. driving towards socialism lol i wonder what he said. can we find the full interview somewhere?
The US is not moving towards socialism... it may seem like it... but I guarantee you, we are NOT! ... there are wayyyyy too many wealthy elite tax paying citizens with considerable investments and assets within the US for that to actually incarnate...what you are observing is socialist policy being practiced... but it is not being institutionalized...
@@camerontaylor7471 as many wealthy elite as there may be at the moment, that can all change, and quickly. Monetary events and transformations that we may never have seen before, actually nobody may have seen before, can change that. And please dont infer that with a current dem politician in charge, we wouldn't move closer to it each day. We are so free right now that we can argue on the political floor about statistically fringe social injustices while other nations are facing economic turmoil and genocide.
@@camerontaylor7471 why do you think the economic elites are positions themselves with the Dems? It is not going to be socialism for them, just like it wasn’t communism for the political elites in Russia. It is for the rest of us. A market crash can wipe out 99% of people and turn them into feudal serfs overnight.
So...there is a persistent position of arbitrage called: investment analyst over-estimation of earnings and under-estimation of the value of tail risk hedging, but how much is too much?
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Great point about the Fed can't bail everything out forever. Eventually all things that "everyone knows is true" will get tested. Related to Minsky's Moment - stability creates instability. All backstops ultimately have to get tested or else they don't serve their purpose. If the market believes in a backstop, then all activities will take that to its natural limit. You only know it's at the limit when it threatens to break. Until then, the market doesn't know if it has taken all the risk it can get away with.
Well done, Mr. Schatzker, you actually hosted a great interview with Mr. Taleb and asked subtle questions of him. You're one of the first, your colleagues are low brow, very well done.
We should diversify our politicians. Perhaps some should not serve the roths childs? Oh and also diversify our oil trade. Why its 100%in us dollars? Lets trade oil with gold silver and spy etf. Ooooh no! Taleb will never say that. He will be finished in the media for life
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I am sorry but this Pandemic has given us enough data to determine that the lockdowns aren’t necessary! They were the best solution in Jan, Feb, March, and April, while we were trying to gather data and determine the virus’s spread coefficient and deadliness. We know it’s NOT very deadly (less than 1%) so the next step is to insure that hospitals can deal with the workload and we did that! It’s past time to unlock the economy because the costs (both health and economic) of not reopening exceed the costs incurred by the pandemic. The notion that our economy should continue to be locked down goes directly against the data AND is the definition of insanity. We can and should proceed with unlocking the economy and it should start with schools and universities.
Nassim's insight is a great foundation for further thought. Some world leaders made better decisions. If companies had reserves of cash or inventory, they could have absorbed the shock: when everything is run with a JIT mindset, things are fragile.
Best way to hedge is in short selling small caps which are about 8X overpriced whereas large and mid-caps only 4X overpriced per historical norms for an economy in the toilet. The real GDP growth per capita using a non-contrived inflation rate has not been positive for the past 15 years.
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What Taleb is saying now is the antithesis of what he wrote about in Antifragile. What in the world happened to the non-interventionist writer who was anti big pharma, anti big government, anti helicopter parent? He WAS someone who we thought studied history. I wonder if he has revised his stance and apologized to scientists like John Ioannidis and others.
Dining bansang maglalagay ng pera ko sa Philippines island magmumula sakin $1billions dahil ang pera ko para Lang sa taung marino at may PAKI sa BUHAY ko at ng AKING mga anak at dalawang kapated at pamangkin at nag kusang Ina ko..Kung cnu ang bang gusto ako dun ako tera d sa Philippines island na pinatay ako sa GUTOM at parusa ng mga tamgangvpinuno ng bansang magnanakaw sa buong mundo..ayaw Kung masayangvang perang AKING ginawa para sa buong mundo..WALAng pwede makinabang Kung d ang tamang taung kailanman ng KABUHAYAN d ng kamalayan ng bansang MATAGAL ng demonyo sa BUHAY ko..Yan ay Philippines WALAng silbi sa BUHAY.mula kapitan HANGGANG presedent WALANG silbi LHAT Yan mga mukhang prlera lngmang Alam...for ever Yan mamatay na silang mga magnanakaw sa bayan na ito..sumpa ng AKING pangalan:AI-JOSE REY QUIRON DABALOS-12/30/1978.
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I don't disagree that risk aversion is playing a part in the economy but I don't think you can separate it from the lockdowns. We don't know what kind of choices people would make if they were free to choose their risk.
@@brandonreed09 are people avoiding the virus or are they not trying to test the cops? In my state all gentleman's clubs were shutdown. That's very clearly an industry that's suffering more from gov't than corona fear.
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Can someone help me explain the following point he is making when answering the question about JP Morgan ordering their traders to come back to the office at 9:30? He talks about the confidence of restaurant-goers. He starts by saying that 'people have the illusion that government actions are slowing down of the economic activity. It's not the local government of NY that bankrupted the restaurants it's the risk aversion of government workers. 'He continues: 'One effect that is running COVID, is the legal system as well. Why are we reacting so much to Covid when it's not a killer as other diseases we had in history. Every time a plane crashes billions are spent to make flying safer. There are classes of things for which ....the consumer can switch from flying to driving. Although not wise they can still do it. The consumer or individual employee can work from home. Office safety is quite central in determining the behavior of people, risk aversion is greater today than it was 20, 30m 40 years ago. That's more costly economically. . I don't understand multiple points he is making. So it is the risk aversion of the consumers and system that is hurting us and not government action? We don't recognize that difference. Flying is safer than driving?
18:09 I felt that little dissatisfaction when Erik looked away loosing eye contact with Taleb when Taleb did a funny reference of his low-haired head, missing a potential laughter and out-of-the-script moment. Nonetheless, a well conducted interview indeed.
Yes, it's difficult Tony when social skills lapse momentarily. I got a sinking feeling too at that moment. But there's a good chance Erik has taken note, so all is not lost.
The problem with pharmacological risk is that the big pharma companies place the risk on the consumers shoulders, when they are fully aware that if their product becomes known to be dangerous or deadly, they can just pay a lawsuit fine in the millions while knowing they'll still make billions in the long run. Much like the auto manufacturers which put out a vehicle with a defect and then don't recall it because the costs of repairing it are much more than the cost of the lawsuits from dead individuals family members.
Was difficult to understand what Nassim says - thank goodness for the interviewer who was very articulate and the paraphrasing helped in clarifying the thought. It's easier to read Nassim's thoughts here: www.grahammann.net/book-notes/skin-in-the-game-nassim-nicholas-taleb. His book is "Skin in the game." The interviewer is an excellent communicator
I partially disagree that crisis is for weaker firms to disappear. If there are companies which would not survive after this is over even if support is provided it makes no sense to support them. But if say there’s an entrepreneur who paid his own money bought expensive hair and nail equipment but has to wait until people can go back he can be supported. You can’t just throw everyone under the bus if they cannot do their operation by remote work. Not all businesses are like twitter or Facebook. I’m not saying supporting a shoe retailer in mall if people will probably prefer to shop online even after vaccine.
There is a problem with the US dollar. No other nation has stepped up to say it wishes to be the reserve currency. The EU is right now insolvent. Russia, India and China have levels of poverty that cannot be possible in a reserve currency. The relationship between poverty and reserve currency can be seen in Holland, Spain, Portugal and England. America is not broke nor is it destitute. The dollar is still sound.
Dan inWY maybe he just lost connection, as later video suggests. First time through I found it odd because it was both shockingly obvious (once revealed; as are much of Taleb’s grand exposes) and glaringly against the common narrative.
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Wake up Nassim! Shutting down the entire economy by means of government mandate for three months had nothing to do with record high unemployment and small business closures? You said it would of happened had they not mandated closures? Lay off the Lebanese wine buddy!
although I like his demeanor, I disagree with Nassim on this point about it being a public risk response versus a government response. The government response informs the public response. Look, for example, at Florida. Floridas government response wasn’t as strong, even when the science didn’t show that the sunlight kills Covid, and the peoples response was not as volatile either.
Nassim was bullish on Trump in the run up to the 2016 election and then he quietly deleted his pro-Trump tweets. Nassim is brilliant at math. He's mortal when it comes to reading people. I do enjoy his books. All but the most recent book have been incredible. The most recent book was strangely egotistical (a comment you'll find in many forums). I don't know why things went awry on this one book, after such ego-free brilliance in previous works.
Master Of Puppets Sorry not bullish in the sense of Trump winning. Bullish in the metaphorical sense that Trump would be good for the country. As opposed to being a phenomenal disaster.
Okay, he said some really stupid things about covid. 🙄 If you use face masks early on its not helping. Please educte yourself how herd immunity works! The only reason why covid is not a problem in Asia, is because they stopped testing so much. We should do the same. You will be surprised when you finally forget about the "pandemic".
I used to admire Nasim Taleb (especially his first 2 books - Fooled by Randomness, The Black Swan), but the more my knowledge increases, the more I learn and the more I read--I have come to disagree (and find flaws and biases in his arguments) to a much larger extent. Even though some of his ideas are useful/beneficial, I am not a fan anymore.
When the first coronavirus case was discovered in the United States in January, Congress (they make the laws) should have started quarantining everyone coming into airports from foreign countries. That would have saved thousands of lives and millions of jobs. They didn’t even try. They totally failed, and THEIR failure has caused outrageous suffering.
Exactly and Trump has nothing to do with the pandemic because he believed it was a hoax and said it will magically disappear. Its too bad Bill that you was lucky enough not to get this hoax.
I’m probably not understanding correctly but how can government regulation be overlooked when evaluating economic slowdown? Yes, consumer activity has drastically changed from precovid, but doesn’t government regulation mandate an otherwise flexible response?
I don’t have a horse in this race but empirically extreme government intervention IE China has dealt with this the best. Talebs point about multiplicative risk is important here. In a situation where infection rate creates exponential cases, information asymmetry or even the delusion of some small subset of your population creates catastrophic total impacts. So yes the behavior changes but without strictly enforced rules by governments you cannot solve COVID. You would need 90%+ of the population to follow mask mandates and distancing to limit the possibility of exponential cases.
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A true masterclass in interviewing. A smart interviewer who likes to listen (but not to his own words), who manages to produce a clean Q&A without permanent interruption or talking at the same time, who gives interesting questions that deserve (and get) original answers, and, most astonishing, who doesn't look utterly dumb compared to Nassim.
Looking around on UA-cam it might seem otherwise like a tragedy that one of the smartest and most pragmatic persons of our times seems to be constantly interviewed by embarrassing jerks who interrupt him all the time.
Very enjoyable and informative interview.
he was terrible a few years ago, now a master:-) One thing we have to always keep in mind, people and other things can improve!
Plus, it helps to interview someone you actually admire and respect, like he does with Taleb.
Great interview ... on both sides of the interview :-)
被v。
Rare common sense! Great interview with a brilliant man.
Mr. Taleb has been reading 30-60 hours a week since youth. His enthusiasm for knowledge and teaching is fantastic.
I’ve finished fooled by randomness and am halfway though antifragile.
Randomness is really good, the mind discounts luck in our achievements
48:27 he can also speak a little Italian?
Prof Nassem may you never get tired to share your light..
Almost Feb 2021 and this interview is aging well already. I wish I could upvote this thousands of times. I love NNT
Erik is a great interviewer imo, compared to others, because he actually let's the interviewee do most the talking that they were brought in for!
Eric must be quite smart, as he is a great listener
Pretty rare these days for some reason. He stands out.
Nassim Taleb is Nassim Taleb. When he talks, you listen. Nothing else needs to be said. However, it must be pointed out that Erik Schatzker did a great job interviewing him. Kudos.
It's the First time i"m hearing of him. The guy has common sense and he commands respect.
@@DerDop Read his books. It's hard work because he waffles. But if you can make it out the other side, you won't regret it. My favourite is Fooled by Randomness.
biggusriggus yes his books are work in deed. He’s not the most likeable guy, but he’s brilliant.
@@amirjon Always nice to bump into similar minded folks. Hello from Aus (Melb)
LongTermCap: if by “not the most likable guy” you mean “massive c__t”, I agree.
Praise to Mr. Nassim. Everytime I read or listen to this man speak, i always get nervous as his ideas always forces me to re-assess my risk appetite. I think he is one of the greatest thinkers of our time and I'm grateful to have learned so much from him. He is the counterbalance to mainstream media's "stocks only go up" nonsense.
Thank you Eric for such a great interview. Loved your questions and keeping the interview flow in order. Always good to hear Dr. Nassim Taleb's views.
This guy should get interviewed more often. Unconventional genuine personality with wisdom backed by math and science.
interviewer: describes Nassim as a contrarian
Nassim: "I'm definitely not a contrarian"
It's always great to see Erick pulling out info, statements, perspectives from ppl. He's the most brilliant journalist I've ever seen.
Erik seems to be one of the few that is capable of interviewing someone like Taleb. He asks good questions and doesn't interrupt.
also important: he follows up, when something is ambiguous or not clear
Erik Schatzker great interview style, I'm growing on Bloomberg. A true masterclass from Nassim. Thank you for sharing.
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Why does this look like it’s filmed in the 90s on VHS?
Hard to comprehend with terrible audio
Erik's interviews with Nassim are always great
Great interview and interviewer! Always so inlightening to listen to Nassim Taleb! Thank you!
Thoroughly enjoy this conversation. Always benefit from listening to Mr Taleb.
*Dr.
Ok Eric is now in charge of conducting ALL interviews ever!
By YouSum Live
00:00:00 Nasim Taleb discusses risk, probability, and anti-fragility.
00:02:23 Importance of early reaction to pandemics for cost-effectiveness.
00:04:01 Misconceptions about pandemics: tail risk, economy, and trade-offs.
00:07:00 Strategic measures like face masks to reduce pandemic effects.
00:10:45 Impact of risk aversion on economic growth and behavior.
00:12:08 Evaluating systems' anti-fragility post-pandemic for future readiness.
00:17:33 Three categories of industries post-pandemic: helped, harmed, maimed.
00:20:02 Potential consequences of pandemic on globalization and supply chains.
00:21:16 Smart reorganization of globalization for robustness.
00:21:42 Fragility in supply chains, essential for local industries.
00:22:00 Identifying and addressing sources of fragility crucial for resilience.
00:24:03 Importance of tail-risk protection for catastrophic loss prevention.
00:24:26 Survival strategy: take risks but ensure survivability.
00:30:09 No one is bigger than the market, even the Fed.
00:37:04 Need for insurance before the crisis, not during.
00:39:30 Private markets offer insulation from short-term market pressures.
00:41:38 Private equity can be misused for hiding mistakes.
00:42:07 Risk of US dollar losing reserve currency status.
00:42:54 Impact of US election on global consequences.
00:43:16 Trump's deal-making logic and contradictions.
00:47:31 Reading history for wisdom in handling pandemics.
By YouSum Live
Great interview by Erik with Nassim.
Keep bringing Nassim on. Good interview
Erik is a really solid interviewer.
Taleb's point that the ancients' responses to plagues, creating quarantines and supporting local merchants, was much more successful than the modern day response was spot on. The total shutdown of the U.S. economy, and the catastrophic damage it has caused and will continue to cause, will be remembered as the single greatest failure of the U.S. government's response to this virus. Overall a fantastic interview.
A single greatest failure in the US government? Imagine a virus so deadly that you need a test to see if you have it.
@@dariostrassli7024 "The total shutdown of the U.S. economy" was the biggest mistake they made. Based on the scientific data from the CDC, the virus may only be considered "deadly" if you're over 70 years old with comorbidities. 10 times more people will die due to the economic devastation, and all the associated repercussions, than the virus will kill.
@@wjkingva I agree with you on that. Kill the economy for the tragedies of a few.
we need more wisdom indeed, listening to Mr. Taleb has always been a delight for me..
thank you :)
Eric, the quintessential interviewer, presents another fabulous interview. Unique and data filled. Thank you.
Thank you,! I really admire Mr.Taleb, God bless his family.
My favorite part of this (and many interviews), is watching Eric's expression.
Great interview. I will look for other Erik interviews. I am a big fan of Taleb.
This looks like it was shot in 2008
*1999
@@periversen8486 you people are funny .. made me spit my coffee all over the papers lol
🤣...might have been!
This interview is good. Not many can keep up with Naseem
Time to reread the Black Swan. I also very much enjoyed The Bed of Procrustes.
This guy is sharp! We need more like him and less politicians
Sure. We need more people who sold their souls. Taleb knoes the truth. He just plays "useful genius" role ;)
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30:05 the timing of that cut out was perfect
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@@nassimnicholastaleb2628 scam
I took the risk dealing with Luiz to be in charge of my trade and finally end up with perfect testimony.his platform is amazing and very straightforward
Thanks Luiz .+1.8.0.3.5.6.6.0.6.9.7
Useless conversation. No questions about why Scandinavia has one of the lowest SARS CoV II cases with the world's lowest mask usage. Other places like Sydney Australia doesn't have significant mask usage, and has a low incidence rate. Meanwhile countries outside of Asia that have required face masks have not improved their lot. Asia seems like a special case, maybe because many of the countries have already experienced viruses from bats.
i love how they cut the part where he was clearly about to speak about the U.S. driving towards socialism lol i wonder what he said. can we find the full interview somewhere?
The US is not moving towards socialism... it may seem like it... but I guarantee you, we are NOT! ... there are wayyyyy too many wealthy elite tax paying citizens with considerable investments and assets within the US for that to actually incarnate...what you are observing is socialist policy being practiced... but it is not being institutionalized...
@@camerontaylor7471 as many wealthy elite as there may be at the moment, that can all change, and quickly. Monetary events and transformations that we may never have seen before, actually nobody may have seen before, can change that. And please dont infer that with a current dem politician in charge, we wouldn't move closer to it each day. We are so free right now that we can argue on the political floor about statistically fringe social injustices while other nations are facing economic turmoil and genocide.
@@camerontaylor7471 famous last words, as taleb would say its best to react early, socialism has the biggest tail risks of all.
@@camerontaylor7471 why do you think the economic elites are positions themselves with the Dems? It is not going to be socialism for them, just like it wasn’t communism for the political elites in Russia. It is for the rest of us. A market crash can wipe out 99% of people and turn them into feudal serfs overnight.
Great interview. Taleb explains complex things with simple analogies. Thanks.
That was a brilliant interview. I particularly enjoyed the discussion regarding stagflation; there's no such thing as a free lunch.
its still possible for some to obtain a perfectly free lunch
Lmao! Ever heard of inheritance?! ... I think Paris Hilton understands very well the idea of free money...
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@@camerontaylor7471 🤣🤣🤣🤣
@@sighwestberry5079 😝😝😝😝
very impressive about Nassim Taleb's rich knowledge and sharp opinion. independent thinker indeed
So...there is a persistent position of arbitrage called: investment analyst over-estimation of earnings and under-estimation of the value of tail risk hedging, but how much is too much?
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Taleb was one of my profs during grad school. He always had interesting points of view.
Could you make a channel with only your interviews (whole of Bloomberg). Would be nice. Thanks for the interview!
I love how he did not repeat after "disruption"
"editor at large" - when did he escape?
Days before Covid-19 made landfall. I always found that strangely convenient.
Great point about the Fed can't bail everything out forever. Eventually all things that "everyone knows is true" will get tested. Related to Minsky's Moment - stability creates instability. All backstops ultimately have to get tested or else they don't serve their purpose. If the market believes in a backstop, then all activities will take that to its natural limit. You only know it's at the limit when it threatens to break. Until then, the market doesn't know if it has taken all the risk it can get away with.
Well done, Mr. Schatzker, you actually hosted a great interview with Mr. Taleb and asked subtle questions of him. You're one of the first, your colleagues are low brow, very well done.
The interesting thing about Taleb's logic (I'm a big fan), is that diversification is the solution (because the future is uncertain)
We should diversify our politicians. Perhaps some should not serve the roths childs? Oh and also diversify our oil trade. Why its 100%in us dollars? Lets trade oil with gold silver and spy etf. Ooooh no! Taleb will never say that. He will be finished in the media for life
@@quant2011 Thanks for sharing your comment ❤️,Do well to reach me on telegram, we definitely can work something out.let me have your number so we can keep each other posted over there 👉
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Truly enjoyable conversation.
Great interview by Eric and as usual great insights by Nassim Taleb
Taleb is soooooo intelligent. I wish he'd move back to Lebanon permanently where he could help his own people.
Not enough money there for him
Most people here don't know him, let alone understand him. Those who would understand/appreciate him are a minorities and hardly stand a chance.
I am sorry but this Pandemic has given us enough data to determine that the lockdowns aren’t necessary! They were the best solution in Jan, Feb, March, and April, while we were trying to gather data and determine the virus’s spread coefficient and deadliness. We know it’s NOT very deadly (less than 1%) so the next step is to insure that hospitals can deal with the workload and we did that! It’s past time to unlock the economy because the costs (both health and economic) of not reopening exceed the costs incurred by the pandemic. The notion that our economy should continue to be locked down goes directly against the data AND is the definition of insanity. We can and should proceed with unlocking the economy and it should start with schools and universities.
Nassim's insight is a great foundation for further thought. Some world leaders made better decisions. If companies had reserves of cash or inventory, they could have absorbed the shock: when everything is run with a JIT mindset, things are fragile.
Best way to hedge is in short selling small caps which are about 8X overpriced whereas large and mid-caps only 4X overpriced per historical norms for an economy in the toilet. The real GDP growth per capita using a non-contrived inflation rate has not been positive for the past 15 years.
Never watched a video of Nassim, only read the books, he is very easy to listen too a likeable
WHY W
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@@nassimnicholastaleb2628 what is your telegram contact ?
@@rocketguy748 let me have your number too
Erik did a brilliant job with this interview.
Yeah. Hiding the truth. Perfect job. Both sold their souls
Thanks from Ukraine!
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What Taleb is saying now is the antithesis of what he wrote about in Antifragile. What in the world happened to the non-interventionist writer who was anti big pharma, anti big government, anti helicopter parent? He WAS someone who we thought studied history. I wonder if he has revised his stance and apologized to scientists like John Ioannidis and others.
Dining bansang maglalagay ng pera ko sa Philippines island magmumula sakin $1billions dahil ang pera ko para Lang sa taung marino at may PAKI sa BUHAY ko at ng AKING mga anak at dalawang kapated at pamangkin at nag kusang Ina ko..Kung cnu ang bang gusto ako dun ako tera d sa Philippines island na pinatay ako sa GUTOM at parusa ng mga tamgangvpinuno ng bansang magnanakaw sa buong mundo..ayaw Kung masayangvang perang AKING ginawa para sa buong mundo..WALAng pwede makinabang Kung d ang tamang taung kailanman ng KABUHAYAN d ng kamalayan ng bansang MATAGAL ng demonyo sa BUHAY ko..Yan ay Philippines WALAng silbi sa BUHAY.mula kapitan HANGGANG presedent WALANG silbi LHAT Yan mga mukhang prlera lngmang Alam...for ever Yan mamatay na silang mga magnanakaw sa bayan na ito..sumpa ng AKING pangalan:AI-JOSE REY QUIRON DABALOS-12/30/1978.
Eric has become a better interviewer!
Excellent conversation. Thank you.
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Great coverage Bloomberg!
his take on US socialism was enlightening
Eric my friend , you are becoming a great interviewer. Thanks 👍
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Did it bring financial discipline to Greece and Italy? At what cost? Who bears the cost?
I don't disagree that risk aversion is playing a part in the economy but I don't think you can separate it from the lockdowns. We don't know what kind of choices people would make if they were free to choose their risk.
How many lockdowns are enforced by law enforcement? Not many. In most cases people are choosing freely choosing to follow the mandates.
@@brandonreed09 are people avoiding the virus or are they not trying to test the cops? In my state all gentleman's clubs were shutdown. That's very clearly an industry that's suffering more from gov't than corona fear.
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Can someone help me explain the following point he is making when answering the question about JP Morgan ordering their traders to come back to the office at 9:30? He talks about the confidence of restaurant-goers. He starts by saying that 'people have the illusion that government actions are slowing down of the economic activity. It's not the local government of NY that bankrupted the restaurants it's the risk aversion of government workers. 'He continues: 'One effect that is running COVID, is the legal system as well. Why are we reacting so much to Covid when it's not a killer as other diseases we had in history. Every time a plane crashes billions are spent to make flying safer. There are classes of things for which ....the consumer can switch from flying to driving. Although not wise they can still do it. The consumer or individual employee can work from home. Office safety is quite central in determining the behavior of people, risk aversion is greater today than it was 20, 30m 40 years ago. That's more costly economically. . I don't understand multiple points he is making. So it is the risk aversion of the consumers and system that is hurting us and not government action? We don't recognize that difference. Flying is safer than driving?
I did enjoy the conversation, thanks!
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Tuna £ 3, cheddar £ 1.50, Minute 42 Erik's reaction when Taleb drops reserve currency risk: Priceless
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Nassim is a brilliant thinker
I don't think that this is his real name it sounds like an Nazi
@@alexitoyt1130 it is it means Breeze in Arabic
But sold his soul in 2020
@@quant2011 how so?
@@xxxs8309 he knows the truth but prefers to spread some gigantic BS. And i loved his books. How sad. Will never buy again any of his work
18:09 I felt that little dissatisfaction when Erik looked away loosing eye contact with Taleb when Taleb did a funny reference of his low-haired head, missing a potential laughter and out-of-the-script moment. Nonetheless, a well conducted interview indeed.
Yes, it's difficult Tony when social skills lapse momentarily. I got a sinking feeling too at that moment. But there's a good chance Erik has taken note, so all is not lost.
Yes,, but HOW do you execute tail risk protection....?!
Erik seems like such a cool, smart, humble guy, makes me want to go work for BNN :-)
The problem with pharmacological risk is that the big pharma companies place the risk on the consumers shoulders, when they are fully aware that if their product becomes known to be dangerous or deadly, they can just pay a lawsuit fine in the millions while knowing they'll still make billions in the long run. Much like the auto manufacturers which put out a vehicle with a defect and then don't recall it because the costs of repairing it are much more than the cost of the lawsuits from dead individuals family members.
Thought about Nevada while watching this. Hope their recovery is going well. I imagine its been harder
Was difficult to understand what Nassim says - thank goodness for the interviewer who was very articulate and the paraphrasing helped in clarifying the thought. It's easier to read Nassim's thoughts here: www.grahammann.net/book-notes/skin-in-the-game-nassim-nicholas-taleb. His book is "Skin in the game." The interviewer is an excellent communicator
Thank you Prof. Taleb !
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I partially disagree that crisis is for weaker firms to disappear. If there are companies which would not survive after this is over even if support is provided it makes no sense to support them. But if say there’s an entrepreneur who paid his own money bought expensive hair and nail equipment but has to wait until people can go back he can be supported. You can’t just throw everyone under the bus if they cannot do their operation by remote work. Not all businesses are like twitter or Facebook. I’m not saying supporting a shoe retailer in mall if people will probably prefer to shop online even after vaccine.
Banks can compensate CEOs for enormous risk and socialize the losses with the backing of the Treasury and Fed.
There is a problem with the US dollar. No other nation has stepped up to say it wishes to be the reserve currency. The EU is right now insolvent. Russia, India and China have levels of poverty that cannot be possible in a reserve currency. The relationship between poverty and reserve currency can be seen in Holland, Spain, Portugal and England. America is not broke nor is it destitute. The dollar is still sound.
Did the interviewer get a raise after this interview? I certainly hope so.
Convenient cut edit when he starts talking about Trump socialism. 29:20
hmmm...
Dan inWY maybe he just lost connection, as later video suggests. First time through I found it odd because it was both shockingly obvious (once revealed; as are much of Taleb’s grand exposes) and glaringly against the common narrative.
Bloomberg's only great contribution this year
Would using face masks in February have reduced the deaths at long-term care homes?
if the staff wore masks, yes...
Absolutely not
This interviewer is kick-ass good! I wish Taleb was the head of WHO... could've saved the world.
He's asking the correct questions and the correct follow-up questions
How do you get a tail risk hedge?
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I can't hear what he is saying around 22 minutes with regards to 80/20 rules
Thank you marvelous interview
Wake up Nassim! Shutting down the entire economy by means of government mandate for three months had nothing to do with record high unemployment and small business closures? You said it would of happened had they not mandated closures? Lay off the Lebanese wine buddy!
although I like his demeanor, I disagree with Nassim on this point about it being a public risk response versus a government response. The government response informs the public response. Look, for example, at Florida. Floridas government response wasn’t as strong, even when the science didn’t show that the sunlight kills Covid, and the peoples response was not as volatile either.
Nassim was bullish on Trump in the run up to the 2016 election and then he quietly deleted his pro-Trump tweets. Nassim is brilliant at math. He's mortal when it comes to reading people. I do enjoy his books. All but the most recent book have been incredible. The most recent book was strangely egotistical (a comment you'll find in many forums). I don't know why things went awry on this one book, after such ego-free brilliance in previous works.
Master Of Puppets Sorry not bullish in the sense of Trump winning. Bullish in the metaphorical sense that Trump would be good for the country. As opposed to being a phenomenal disaster.
26:23 Sorry novice question: What does he mean by unlimited liquidity?
Fed printing money non-stop
Okay, he said some really stupid things about covid. 🙄
If you use face masks early on its not helping. Please educte yourself how herd immunity works!
The only reason why covid is not a problem in Asia, is because they stopped testing so much. We should do the same. You will be surprised when you finally forget about the "pandemic".
Well this is pure gold from both sides
Nassim is simply amazing
Thanks for posting this. interesting perspectives
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I used to admire Nasim Taleb (especially his first 2 books - Fooled by Randomness, The Black Swan), but the more my knowledge increases, the more I learn and the more I read--I have come to disagree (and find flaws and biases in his arguments) to a much larger extent. Even though some of his ideas are useful/beneficial, I am not a fan anymore.
When the first coronavirus case was discovered in the United States in January, Congress (they make the laws) should have started quarantining everyone coming into airports from foreign countries. That would have saved thousands of lives and millions of jobs. They didn’t even try. They totally failed, and THEIR failure has caused outrageous suffering.
Exactly and Trump has nothing to do with the pandemic because he believed it was a hoax and said it will magically disappear. Its too bad Bill that you was lucky enough not to get this hoax.
Yeah. Its all trumps mistake. Biden is more health oriented. He has a brilliant brain. Super bright. He would beat taleb at chess any day
Excellent interview! Great questions and clear eloquent responses.
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I’m probably not understanding correctly but how can government regulation be overlooked when evaluating economic slowdown? Yes, consumer activity has drastically changed from precovid, but doesn’t government regulation mandate an otherwise flexible response?
I don’t have a horse in this race but empirically extreme government intervention IE China has dealt with this the best. Talebs point about multiplicative risk is important here. In a situation where infection rate creates exponential cases, information asymmetry or even the delusion of some small subset of your population creates catastrophic total impacts. So yes the behavior changes but without strictly enforced rules by governments you cannot solve COVID. You would need 90%+ of the population to follow mask mandates and distancing to limit the possibility of exponential cases.
great interview.... great interviewer and great interviewee
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