UPDATE: The rules have changed somewhat significantly since this video was posted. DraftKings made the decision that they will no longer leave stale lines. In conjunction with that change, they have also eliminated late swap. So, if you get a pick set in early, you might be able to enter a set that those who enter later can't access (and vice versa)--thus, people in the same contests aren't necessarily working from the same "pick pool."
Thanks Neil. I have not played yet, but probably will. One thing I have thought about is comparing the Pick 6 lines to any movement on the books. Sort of taking some market-based thought into it. The obvious ones, like a player being out last minute, everyone or most should know. Some micro edges are still there, I think..
Yeah, I think they've gotten better about that. It can still change in a hurry if something chalky hits at the last minute, but they've made efforts to improve it.
My big issue with pick 6 is how often 2 picks will payout less than on every single other pickem site. On every other site it’s 3x for a 2 pick assuming normal lines but at least from my pick6 experience I’ve been below that more often
Thats fair, ive yet to really benefit from this payout structure so we'll see if it turns around. But feels pretty bad hitting 4 mans and not even 7x at times @ncorfield8k
idk if you mentioned this but like in your Kevin Durant Devin Booker example. if you made a slip before Kevin Durant got scratched from the game, your Kevin Durant pick would be graded as a loss and you will lose the slip. Where as other books might void or DNP the player, Pick6 does not do this, it is a loss..
Yup, good point. I will likely make a new video at some point. DraftKings also instituted a minimum payout for winning bets, which is nice. Need to add some more info.
Literally today, well last night I had Corey seager get voided on a 3 man. Hit the other 2 people and looks like I'm getting a credit that is more than what I bet
Okay so it sounds like generally you can leverage the public’s concentration on a particular pick and fade it for better payout. But when we are competing against the pool; im competing with ANY other nba/nfl prop right? So for EX. If 90% of bettors are on McCaffery over rushing yards, then bet the under bc the payout will be better in theory. But if i play the under am i competing against other mccafrey slips, or am i competing against all other NFL slips. So if 26% of people hit their 2 leg NFL picks, even if McCaffrey under hits, technically alot of people still won their bets in the overall NFL market and therefore on a 2 leg slip im not going to get a good payout? Basically im asking how specific is the pooling and at what level am i competing with others
Yup, you have it correct. If you're playing NFL, you're playing against the entire NFL pool, not just people who took the opposite side of your pick. Sports don't cross for this, so you're just competing against all other props within the same sports. Now that the lines are dynamic (contrary to when I made this video), you might be even competing against people who had lines that weren't available when you entered, for better or worse.
@@flannelverse got it, but all that matters in these scenarios is what slips grade as a win or a loss. So I assume overs are gonna be more popular, and potentially on nights like Thursday night and when the game slate isnt big, theres more opportunity for lopsided returns since theres not multiple games creating more averaging out of pay. So ideally im thinking, bet on one game slates, bet unders, and probably going big makes the most sense right 4+ legs?
@@gabereds9869 I think that has generally proven true, that people love betting overs in most sports. I'm not sure if it holds true for games like Thursday that everyone is probably expecting to be a defensive battle, but maybe it will given the lower lines. So yeah, I think you're probably on the right track. As far as the number of legs, I honestly don't have a great read. I've had some pretty massive payout just going 4/4 on some slates, and sometimes 6/6 can be underwhelming. So if I'm just making one card, I'll usually just decide the number of legs based on my confidence level of my read on the picks and/or what the public will do. One final thing that I didn't mention in the video (didn't know it would last, but has so far) that is kind of important: they have instituted a minimum payout, where if too many people hit, they will still pay out a minimum amount that can be significantly more than the split. So if you feel really good about picks, don't be afraid to play them.
@@flannelverse true i did see that, i just downloaded the app recently so im working from the benefit of all the new features. And ok thanks thats helpful. I rly think playing these types of bets on Sundays might be less potential bang for buck because if theres 10-11 games i feel like the distribution of slips that hit is more likely to average out, no? I might try to use these for MNF, and TNF where essentially all of the pool is dependent on a single game.
@@gabereds9869 You are probably right about that. I am just getting into Pick6 for NFL this year. Started with NBA last year, then PGA and MMA. They're all pretty different. But I am going to take a hard look at many island games.
Just realized this is on my Pick6 video. So, the answer is: yes, if you make 2 to 4 picks. If you do a 5- or 6-pick set, you can get one wrong and still make some money. Typically 70% of the prize pool is split among people who get them all right in the 5- and 6-pick sets, and then 30% is split between people who get one wrong.
Not the first time I've heard of something like that happening. Have you checked if it's available in your state? They also changed the game so that the lines DO change now so I may have to re-do this video.
UPDATE: The rules have changed somewhat significantly since this video was posted. DraftKings made the decision that they will no longer leave stale lines. In conjunction with that change, they have also eliminated late swap. So, if you get a pick set in early, you might be able to enter a set that those who enter later can't access (and vice versa)--thus, people in the same contests aren't necessarily working from the same "pick pool."
Thanks Neil. I have not played yet, but probably will. One thing I have thought about is comparing the Pick 6 lines to any movement on the books. Sort of taking some market-based thought into it. The obvious ones, like a player being out last minute, everyone or most should know. Some micro edges are still there, I think..
Yup, I think a market-based approach is generally pretty sharp.
I do find the closer to end of games in any contest the live scoring has usually been pretty close to actual payouts.
Yeah, I think they've gotten better about that. It can still change in a hurry if something chalky hits at the last minute, but they've made efforts to improve it.
My big issue with pick 6 is how often 2 picks will payout less than on every single other pickem site. On every other site it’s 3x for a 2 pick assuming normal lines but at least from my pick6 experience I’ve been below that more often
I think I probably just don’t understand the best strategy still, I was using oddshopper but those lines are probably heavily duped unfortunately
It's a fair criticism, but in my experience it's been offset by the times I get way more than other sites.
Thats fair, ive yet to really benefit from this payout structure so we'll see if it turns around. But feels pretty bad hitting 4 mans and not even 7x at times @ncorfield8k
idk if you mentioned this but like in your Kevin Durant Devin Booker example. if you made a slip before Kevin Durant got scratched from the game, your Kevin Durant pick would be graded as a loss and you will lose the slip. Where as other books might void or DNP the player, Pick6 does not do this, it is a loss..
Yup, good point. I will likely make a new video at some point. DraftKings also instituted a minimum payout for winning bets, which is nice. Need to add some more info.
Literally today, well last night I had Corey seager get voided on a 3 man. Hit the other 2 people and looks like I'm getting a credit that is more than what I bet
@@tylerprivette6551 PICK6 just updated their policy like less than a week ago to void players so congrats.
What app are you using to live stream pick6 in background?
Streamyard. Just screensharing a second browser window.
Okay so it sounds like generally you can leverage the public’s concentration on a particular pick and fade it for better payout. But when we are competing against the pool; im competing with ANY other nba/nfl prop right?
So for EX. If 90% of bettors are on McCaffery over rushing yards, then bet the under bc the payout will be better in theory. But if i play the under am i competing against other mccafrey slips, or am i competing against all other NFL slips. So if 26% of people hit their 2 leg NFL picks, even if McCaffrey under hits, technically alot of people still won their bets in the overall NFL market and therefore on a 2 leg slip im not going to get a good payout? Basically im asking how specific is the pooling and at what level am i competing with others
Yup, you have it correct. If you're playing NFL, you're playing against the entire NFL pool, not just people who took the opposite side of your pick. Sports don't cross for this, so you're just competing against all other props within the same sports. Now that the lines are dynamic (contrary to when I made this video), you might be even competing against people who had lines that weren't available when you entered, for better or worse.
@@flannelverse got it, but all that matters in these scenarios is what slips grade as a win or a loss.
So I assume overs are gonna be more popular, and potentially on nights like Thursday night and when the game slate isnt big, theres more opportunity for lopsided returns since theres not multiple games creating more averaging out of pay.
So ideally im thinking, bet on one game slates, bet unders, and probably going big makes the most sense right 4+ legs?
@@gabereds9869 I think that has generally proven true, that people love betting overs in most sports. I'm not sure if it holds true for games like Thursday that everyone is probably expecting to be a defensive battle, but maybe it will given the lower lines. So yeah, I think you're probably on the right track. As far as the number of legs, I honestly don't have a great read. I've had some pretty massive payout just going 4/4 on some slates, and sometimes 6/6 can be underwhelming. So if I'm just making one card, I'll usually just decide the number of legs based on my confidence level of my read on the picks and/or what the public will do. One final thing that I didn't mention in the video (didn't know it would last, but has so far) that is kind of important: they have instituted a minimum payout, where if too many people hit, they will still pay out a minimum amount that can be significantly more than the split. So if you feel really good about picks, don't be afraid to play them.
@@flannelverse true i did see that, i just downloaded the app recently so im working from the benefit of all the new features. And ok thanks thats helpful. I rly think playing these types of bets on Sundays might be less potential bang for buck because if theres 10-11 games i feel like the distribution of slips that hit is more likely to average out, no? I might try to use these for MNF, and TNF where essentially all of the pool is dependent on a single game.
@@gabereds9869 You are probably right about that. I am just getting into Pick6 for NFL this year. Started with NBA last year, then PGA and MMA. They're all pretty different. But I am going to take a hard look at many island games.
Do you have to get all the picks right to win ?
Just realized this is on my Pick6 video. So, the answer is: yes, if you make 2 to 4 picks. If you do a 5- or 6-pick set, you can get one wrong and still make some money. Typically 70% of the prize pool is split among people who get them all right in the 5- and 6-pick sets, and then 30% is split between people who get one wrong.
Dam near impossible to hit 6. But good luck
It's tough for sure. Easier in correlated sports like MMA fwiw.
They gave me a free dollar and also i have this under my promo on the dk app but when i downloaded the app it says its not available in my area???
Not the first time I've heard of something like that happening. Have you checked if it's available in your state? They also changed the game so that the lines DO change now so I may have to re-do this video.
@@flannelverse yeah I checked and it's not available in my state such a bummer
Yappy mcyapper
Lol