What's Going To Happen To Phoenix By 2050?
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- Опубліковано 20 вер 2024
- Phoenix. Suburbs. Golf Courses. Single Family Sprawl. America's least sustainable city is currently staring down a historic drought that could (hopefully) force it to change it's ways.
This video is about the water situation in Phoenix, the future difficulties we'll have in building housing for our growing population, and what's going to happen to the city in the future.
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"Why are there so many golf courses in the middle of the desert?"
Some guy at the 110th floor in NYC: "I need them"
Snowbirds ... golf
@@bluegrassgalit’s not just snowbirds. It’s other boomers who just live here who migrated en masse and continue to do so. Y’all got yours so you don’t give a fuck about anyone else, or the future of our country.
literally 0% of the water issues are arizona natives' faults. it's all northerners who want to golf, and arabs who want to farm alfalfa.
Stop farming in the desert
@@ZoomZoomMX3let me fix that for you-
“Stop farming in the desert to then serve the harvest to non-locals””
Even some rather smart urban planners I know have told me It was crazy to build Phoenix due to the water issue, and they would be shocked when I tell them that no, the crazy idea was developing agriculture, but that urban expansion actually creates a water surplus since urban land use is so much less water intensive than agriculture. Really glad to see a video that gets this issue correct! Well done!!
Idk if it creates a water surplus if the reference amount of water use is zero when there are no people living in the desert
I still remember when SRP came to our school to explain how to use water well and that whole BS. because I was a little smart-ass i asked him about agriculture and he had nothing to say but "we're working on it"
Israel worked on it and managed some amazing progress even if we didn't. Check it out.
But the suburban sprawl the phoenix has taken on is a HUGE detriment to the environment. The excess amount of supplies, pavement, sewage and electrical lines not only makes it overall les tax profitable for the city, but costlier to maintain. Suburban sprawl in the way phoenix did it and other cities like it, especially those in the south, Dallas, Houston, LA, Miami, Phoenix are hellscapes. The massive amount of pavement also dooms phoenix to eliminate the cycle deserts have, of excruciating heat in the day, and cooling off and staying cool at night. Instead the pavement holds this heat, making the night way hotter then it should. And while agriculture is indeed the major draw of the water, the eternal promise of green lawns is just as bad for water as they are the environment in general. Phoenix needs to stop spreading out and start densifying its neighboorhoods if it hopes to stay truly afloat.
Most of these suburbs would do best untouched, with agriculture taking place where more plants actually grow and more dense living concentrated in a more reasonable area
I'm an AZ native that comes from 6 generations of Arizonans. I love this state with all my heart (yes, even the blazing heat), but it's obviously hard to see what it has become. I don't even recognize it sometimes when I'm driving around... I'm happy to see the growth, but at the same time it hurts me to see so much change in areas that were so quiet. It's this contrast I've witnessed throughout my 35 years of life that has impacted me in a huge way. It hasn't made me want to move out of the state (there's too much good here), but it has me considering moving out of the Phoenix valley many times. Places like Show Low, Payson, Prescott, Sierra Vista, or Globe have always intrigued me as I've visited them bunches of times throughout the years. I'll always defend this land and what it has brought to my life, I just wish the future of the valley looked brighter.
I have lived and was born at Prescott, and not gonna lie it gives small town vibes despite it being a relatively decent sized city.
@@kiravatheargoniangive it 5-10 years
Solar farms are a eyesore to say the least.
@@isaacrodriguez2523 literally because they reflect the Sun back into someone’s eyes lol
I'm in Buckeye and all our farmland turned into apartments
Always tune in when you post, but what an awesome surprise to get a shoutout! Thanks for explaining incremental development so clearly, this is really crucial stuff.
P.S. when I (Mike) lived in Scottsdale, I applied to live at cul-de-sac! Too bad construction wasn’t completed in time before we ended up moving to Chicago. We should connect next time I’m in the valley!
Thanks Mike! You guys are doing great work.
@@ThomasFromPHXPhoenix o my gets 7-8 inches of rain a year… there’s not way to make a metro sustainable in that environment. We could have a few people living there to keep the region going; but it would be much better for the planet if people in literal deserts would start migrating back from whence they came. Afterall; the only reason people moved there to begin with is because they could pollute the environment with air-conditioning that kept the heat out.
Hey. How can I become a member?
@@ThomasFromPHXI feel left out... Can I have a shout out too? Lol 🥺🙊
@@StLouis-yu9iz It's not about rain, it's never been about rain. The Hopi people cultivated the area using the salt river, which we've dammed 3 massive resivoirs, salt lake, canyon lake, and the largest roosevelt lake which all get filled generally during the monsoon season. Just because the way we get water is different than St. Louis doesn't mean it's unsustainable. And your argument for why people moved here to begin with is kinda dumb and very doomer, a lot of people move here for all types of reasons, including to get away from the allergy inducing plants that populate the wetter areas of the country. IMO it's one of the most impressive water reservation/delivery systems since the Romans
great to see a fellow arizonan posting videos about our urban planning woes in Phoenix, and what we need to do to overcome these obstacles. Really enjoying your videos dude
You can’t make water appear from nowhere. There’s not ‘overcoming these obstacles’ with that many people in the region.
@@StLouis-yu9iz once it becomes an actual issue, resources and money gets allocated and things get figured out. If it worries you then relocate
Nice video...complex situation, but we got to accommodate the people already here..
I’ll never feel bad for them. Pretty much all my family lives there. I remember in 2018 I was at my grandmas with all the family in town. Her neighborhood has a golf course. She wasn’t allowed to water her 20k yard but the golf course sprinklers ran every 2 hours so the grass didn’t burn doing the heat wave. It’s so ass backwards
yeah I hate it here.
Literally no one is asking you to feel bad for us you goon lmao. Have fun over in whatever god awful town you live in while we figure things out over here in the fastest growing city
@@Zectifindip then
its not that easy to drop everything and leave@@KenPolley
@@Zectifinleave then
Phoenix should not exist let's be totally real
Also las vegas
I agree it's a sprawling hellscape
@@jonathanastro2531 yep I'm running out of here as soon as possible
Fr Im pretty sure the only reason it grew was because of dirt cheap land for people/businesses but like y’all it’s a desert…
And back in WW2, it was a good place to train military pilots.
Living in higher density needs to be compensated by the benefits of living close to town and city centers. Putting high density out in the suburbs is stupid. You still have drive everywhere, and get to listen to your neighbors yelling at each other.
Trying to densify a city designed from the beginning for driving makes things pretty tricky
This is correct. Part of the point of density is the benefits of having nearby shopping, schools, services, parks, etc...
Areas like Maricopa City simply do not have large businesses, but continue to be developed with more and more suburbs. One of the main reasons I left was because it took me nearly 2 HOURS just to go 18 miles on the 347... Now imagine if every housing unit was a duplex... good god, the traffic would be abysmal. And what's the bloody point of doing it? You'll just be out of the city the entire day anyways!
And in urban areas like Los Angeles where we are from it means you have to live with noisy riff raf, welfare bums, the homeless and the crime that comes with that. We lucked out moving to the area we live in Prescott because we are up against forestry land with no possibility of future expansion, unfortunately not everyone can have that situation.
I think if you’ll investigate these organizations like String Towns you’ll find that they are backed by liberal wealthy people and organizations who themselves have large estates and their goal is to try to convince people that living on top of each other is hip and fun so they as the ruling class elite can have more room for their temples of high minded thought and contemplation and feel good about themselves.
“Grand is like a highway where you occasionally run into a stop light” was perhaps the best description of that odd avenue … made me LOL
even funnier is it *is* a highway
Thomas in 2023: "Phoenix unliveable by 2050? Doubt it."
Thomas in 2033: "How I BARELY escaped from the Phoenix Death Zone (Our tires MELTED!)"
People have been living in the Middle East for thousands of years without air conditioning and much higher temperatures.
Mr beast challenge
I've lived in phx for 25 years, i live in east mesa almost to AJ and im starting to see a few instances of old department stores, like the old k mart on power, that are empty getting turned into apartments that are surrounded by other stores. i hope to see more of that kind of change. there is so much wasted land where big box stores sit empty for 10+ years and if one does move in they just build a new one somewhere else. and just building smarter in general, you have to design for the heat and energy efficiency since we rely on AC for such a big chunk of the year and instead we build cheaply without any of our actual desert climate in mind.
No. We do not need Phoenix to get more water. The U.S government should relocate the entire city to an area that can actually support it.
gosh also the old bashas strip next to banner. What a waste of space! Banner owns it now and just uses it for storage.
@@AtillatheFun Or cut off the spigot to Cali.
@@katydid2877 To cali? You realise that it contributes more to the federal government than it takes in right? Cutting Cali out would mostly bankrupt republican states.
@@AtillatheFun So sad Cali contributes so little to its own residents.
I predict that in the future, former rust belt cities will experience a population and economic boom as people move from the American Southwest due to affordability and climate change. The Great Lakes region has an abundant supply of water which could sustain a population several times larger than its current size.
The great lakes area is a "Mediterranean" of NA. Bad environmental and economic policy makes it look dingy.
@@nathanandsugar5252 Are you arguing that the great lakes have MORE environmental issues than building a sprawling inefficient metropolis in the middle of a desert? If so, ROFL bud. You didn't that that one through.
I’m not from the Great Lakes but I would lower your voice
No one wants to drink polluted water
@@nathanandsugar5252absolutely!
I've always been impressed by this channel but this is the first video that shows me just how much deeper of a thinker you are than I am. Thank you for doing the work to make this information more easily understandable to people like me. I don't live in Phoenix but these concepts, I imagine, are applicable in more places than one. And thanks for using your platform to draw attention to Strong Towns. They may be the greatest force for good within world of city planning.
Tempe Cul-de-sac looks amazing, I'm sure they are having no shortage of people looking for these types of walkable communities.
Hopefully it will start a virtuous cycle.
Hopefully they will build these in the Southeast
@@railroadforest30yeah and not in a literal desert 🙄
@@StLouis-yu9iz true
@@StLouis-yu9iza hopeless desert.
Phoenix will be fine lol. This guy needs to chill and find something to do. People have been living in the middle east for millennia.. every city has problems. If we listened to these guys, we'd have to vacate NYC, Miami, Nola, every city.
Almost seems like its a bit of a bad idea to built so many suburbs in the FUCKING DESERT!!!!!
Name a place in the US that does not have any negative weather ever,.
@@katydid2877 San Diego.
@@anthonyiannozzi6777 Very true. It just cost 10X too much to live there. And it’s in Cali. And all the illegals getting dropped off may eventually have a negative impact, but sure the weather is nice.
@pumpkiespoon8524 “Void” like open land? Most of the western US is open land.
What does weather have to do with a desert.. 2 different topics@@katydid2877
I’m not convinced that the water issue will never happen as you seem to think. Too much short term thinking and profits prevent much change in this area.
Apparently too much bias from people that were raised there too. :/
@@StLouis-yu9izExactly! The same ones who go iTs A dRy HeAt and then spend all summers posting pictures of them baking cookies in their cars and complaining. Like wow you mean the desert is hot? Groundbreaking lol
@@cjthompson420I find it really annoying when people act like it’s so good because “It’s a dry heat” you know what else a dry heat is? And oven a volcano fire. I much prefer a Humid heat anyday of the weak then get baked just stepping outside and losing so much water.
Week*
@@rose-t2l6z Lol so true. That year in 2012 Houston had Phoenix weather. 112-116 every day and low humidity. It was awful.
I just moved away from Phoenix in the beginning of 2022 and the climate was a big contributing reason. Based on current trends, I don't see how the city or state will move to curb the urban heat island effect, reduce unnecessary water use for all the grass lawns and golf courses in Phoenix metro, or significantly reduce car use, especially as it is trending hotter every year. I lived at 32nd st and thunderbird, right off AZ 51 and very near PV mall. Valley metro's plans to build a light rail line to one of the more dense, walkable areas of the city were canceled. The line to westgate and metro center are tenuous and take FOREVER to build. Apartment buildings and townhomes were being blocked in the central corridor while single family housing subdivisions that are car dependent and water intensive are exploding in areas like deer valley, cave creek, anthem, queen creek and san tan valley, and of course verrado and buckeye. As much as I love so many things about Phoenix and Arizona as a whole, it's difficult to see a positive long term outcome for most of the valley. Would love to live in a place like culdesac, but it's taken years to get the first car-free development. There isn't currently enough density or transit infrastructure to support that in most of the rest of the valley, meaning more places like that may be DECADES away.
I feel like when people start to leave or when migration to maricopa county (and pinal county) starts to slow, the tax revenue for further development of transit infrastructure will dry up before enough can be built to make a truly walkable metro possible. That isn't even considering the outsized political power of NIMBYs in places like Scottsdale, Paradise Valley, Ahwatukee, Chandler, and Gilbert, many of which fight tooth and nail to prevent transit (especially rail) to come into their city.
I was 20 years old in 1987 and was one of the many NIMBYS that stood with signs opposing the new Loop 101 that summer. We knew that moving forward this way would be the catalyst for explosive growth. The freeway planning in Metro PHX is actually good , learning from mistakes made in other cities. This has been a brutal July and it will only continue to get hotter. It is this heat and the dependence on HVAC that makes this population possible. As the CEO of Lennar Homes said , the water will be here. The question on everyones mind is at what cost ? There will be a day where this area simply will become the epicenter of exodus. That day could be as little as 30 years away if some University models are correct.
I've been trying to save up to move somewhere north. I hate it here so much. I hate the heat.
Would you mind letting us know where you moved? I live near PV mall for many years. I grew up in Central Phoenix and like you there’s many things I liked about this area. I just went hiking yesterday and dreamy Drive park and there were hundreds of people out there. The desert was beautiful and green. It was gorgeous. I would much rather have a long gorgeous winter in a few months of hot summer. Well, maybe let’s just call it what it is five months and very hot summer then live in some place like Wisconsin, where it’s absolutely freezing most of the year that being said, I don’t disagree with anything you said it is getting hotter here I was a kid I live near the 51 in Bethany home then Course there was no 51. Actually I lived very close to 16th St. in Missouri and I know it’s hotter now currently I own a home near PV mall that I lived in but it’s a rental now and I currently live near I 17 in Jax where I live I can walk 1:59 different parks I live in a master plan community, anyway I would love to know where you chose to live because I’ve been considering moving to a smaller area to escape the extreme heat the primarily I’m worried about civil and refs. Something does happen like we lose power for a week people are gonna lose their mind and I don’t wanna be in the middle of it no one will be prepared. What happened with Covid.
I’m in flagstaff and I approve this message. We are looking to move from AZ after 18 years. Staying here long term is such a bad idea even in flagstaff. The outlook for the weather and water issues are no bueno. Schools have gone so downhill too so hopefully we’re outta here either this summer if not next summer
Your last sentence there really makes me mad. I’ve gotten to the point that I believe those who fight passionately against public transportation simply do not deserve a voice in such matters at all. They are obviously just fighting for their own desires and their own wants and have no concern whatsoever for what is good for humankind in this matter.
As someone from Surprise, thank you for calling attention to this
I imagine a large influx of the population to the Southwest is older people - just imagine all these stroads filled with elderly drivers who will end up isolated in their expensive single family homes. With my grandparents' mental and physical health taking a turn for the worst, I pity what will become of these older folks and for the limited younger population and state sponsored services expected to care for them.
imagine driving behind them in arizona with no AC and they all stop at every light so i drive with a chainsaw now
@@atomictravellerjust ban cars instead
You need to check AZ's statistics. AZ is not FL. -; Zoomer
az has communities and industries oriented toward retirees and snowbirds.
@@timsmith5133 the valley has a bunch of places dedicated to retirees. Sun City, which is just west of Peoria, Sun City West, by Surprise, and huge portions of Scottsdale are retiree communities.
Thomas you feel the same exact way I feel about Arizona. and how they are building.
I'm actually pretty sure by 2050 Phoenix will be inhospitable for human habitation. This is not die to the water, which would only cause a decline, but the weather. Too many homes won't be able to adequately cool thier house at ~150. That's why i moved away last year. You can stay inside all you want, but you have to leave at some point for groceries and sanity. Then you realize everything outside is literally cooking you. How is infrastructure going to be built/maintained when EVENING temps are above 110?
Cities like Chandler Gilbert, and Queen Creek are not concerned about Phoenix, they have major employment like chip companies, building for manufacturing, and other employment, plenty of entertainment, top rated schools, they don't need a rail to go to Phoenix to work. Gilbert is is building many apartments as well. These are independent cities, they don't want to be another Phoenix.
You should see a therapist.
@@threeftr3349Top rated schools? Dude we’re basically at the bottom of the country for education lol
@@nickz4993 I am not talking about public school.
@@somedogsarecops2354therapist for what? Lmao
Arizona uses less water now than during the 70s.
And you're going to use even less in the future, because lake Mead is empty.
As a former city planner with a master's degree in geography, and as a Phoenix resident, I'm impressed with your facts and analysis. I applaud your video. There are a few considerations, however, that your viewers might overlook. Urban sprawl in Phoenix and elsewhere was encouraged by the construction of the interstate highway system and the automobile beginning in the 1950's (e.g. Marysvale). While land costs have been comparatively low and real estate boosterism has been an economic driver in Arizona, it is not unique to Phoenix (e.g. Levittown on Long Island, NY). Now, urban sprawl is reinforced by the growth of the Internet; people no longer need to work, live, shop, and socialize near where they choose to live. Population has grown everywhere and most jobs will continue to be in urban areas. In Arizona, residential areas as far away as Prescott, Arizona have been booming. So in actuality, Phoenix is not unlike cities everywhere in the world (including Europe and Asia) where prices in central cities have become relatively unaffordable as opposed to prices in suburbs, exurbs, and rural areas. Many people are also willing to pay higher prices to be close to urban amenities. In the case of Phoenix, the central area is relatively green (thanks to former orchards and the SRP) with most commercial services within a mile of home and major cultural amenities within fifteen minutes of driving time. Phoenix still has a lower cost of living than many large U.S. population centers, especially in nearby California and the colder climates of the Northeast and Northwest. The Phoenix City Council, in particular, has approved many mid-rise contractor-architecture multi-family developments in central Phoenix using the PUD provisions of it's zoning ordinance, akin to spot zoning often over the objections of NIMBY residents. The City's "General Plan" is written more as a grab bag of idealistic platitudes for politicians, developers, and public influencers than a blueprint for development. Your analysis of the water situation is largely correct. Urban development uses far less water than previous agriculture in the Valley of the Sun. As prices for water increase (Phoenix has substantially increased water rates in recent years), we can expect even more residents to abandon their interest in green lawns and move to other water conservation measures. New single-family homes tend to be larger (e.g. 2500 sq. ft or larger), have better weather insulation, and cover larger percentages of smaller residential lots. Also, the increasing efficiency of air conditioning technology and efficiency standards where air conditioning is ubiquitous and basic to Arizona living, will contribute to continuing livability in Phoenix even though the summers are clearly getting hotter and longer. Historically speaking, Phoenix should exist because of it's reliable water supply. Arizona is fortunate to have it's own large watershed and coolor weather in the mountainous areas between the desert valleys and the Colorado plateau which cover roughly one-third of the state of Arizona. Another long-term concern that you could add to your analysis, besides the impact of climate change and long-term droughts in the Southwest on the Colorado River and central Arizona watersheds, will be the increasing energy cost everywhere. Presumably that will also be mitigated by the transition from fossil fuels to cleaner and renewable energy as technology evolves.
In regards to energy, APS should run the three existing reactors at Palo Verde as long as possible while applying for a fourth reactor. Also perhaps look into newer tech like SMR and place them across the valley.
The two tanks you circled at the 2:10 mark are nowhere near a wastewater treatment facility. Those are the 1 & 2 Wash water storage tanks at the PHX 24th street water treatment plant. This is a clean water facility that treats Salt river water fed from the canal connection at granite reef to bring it up to potable levels. Completely different systems entirely. For wastewater try 91st Ave WWTP just north of baseline, or Mesa NWWRF where the 202 & 101 meet just north of Sloan park.
Years ago I rented a house in Tolleson on 91st ave, right across the street from the water treatment plant. The smell in the evenings when the wind shifted was enough for me to successfully argue for a rent reduction.
I love that you know where my poop goes.😂💩
The people who claim the weather is nice in Arizona have lost their marbles
I so totally agree . 117 F in record breaking 30 days straight this past July is not exactly good weather. Especially when you see yellow body bags being placed in vans in parks around the city. Homeless dying of thirst. AC malfunctions and the clock is ticking. Either you get that thing running or die. How is this good weather ?
@@utistudent099 it's good because it makes people like you leave
@@topkek7587 Let me be clear. I have done HVAC here in Phoenix since 1985. In that time I have done a tremendous amount of charity work helping elderly people live through this awful heat by giving them free labor and steep discounts on parts to keep their air on. Why don't you pack up your own goods and hit the road dude. What have you done lately to help this society survive these scorching temperatures over the ever increasing miserable years? I work outdoors in this crap all day since I was 19 years old.
@@topkek7587 the heat will take care of you some day
@@moonshine8255 I only like to visit actual cities, so Arizona isn’t on my radar
I am always going to be suspicious of any company who's name is a color followed by "Rock" or "Stone"
Rock and and stone!
Rockstoneberg
It’s all just a coincidence! They have our best interests at heart ❤️
Red stone
The American system of constantly expanding single family home developments may be unsustainable. They don't pay their way.
I work in new construction and man the landscape has changed so much in just the last 4 years
Phoenix needs to plant more trees for shade
Yeah so phoenix uses more water for these trees that's brilliant
Genius love it
Phoenix needs high density TOD around their light rail stations.
All the factors you illustrate here are significant inhibitors to the viability of the Phoenix metro area.
However, I think those claiming that Phoenix will become uninhabitable are thinking of the climate catastrophe. If you can't step outside in the daytime for > 20 minutes without succumbing to heat exhaustion from June - September & can't survive without AC that place is technically uninhabitable.
It’s habitable just not with the modern home.
@@MeloncholyKay With what kind of home then? I agree the houses in Phoenix are crap. I own one so I know from first hand experience. But what do you think is better suited to it?
Just went to visit the Phoenix area for first time in August with 114F highs. I biked for 20 miles in the late morning and had to stop every 30 minutes to chug a bottle of fluids. I pretty much concluded the same thing. My airbnb host couldnt get his house below 80 with full AC at 9 pm. I have a newfound appreciation for SoCal weather and will gladly pay an arm and a leg to live here!
@@AssBlasster That sounds like an undersized unit or a unit low on charge, possible that the insulation has collapsed or been disturbed in the attic but that's only likely in an older home. Living in the desert requires a drastic shift in when you do things and considering you aren't acclimated to the weather it's going to be harder on you than a local that grew up here. I spent two weeks in Denver for work and I couldn't believe that the interior of an unfinished construction site was topping out in the 80s during what they called "summer".
The heats really not that bad
People have decided the best place to grow alfalfa, run golf courses, and build semiconductors (three of the most water intensive industries on earth!) in the middle of a desert... and they wonder why we have water issues lol
golf courses run on grey water not potable and semiconductor fabs recycle their water. at least TSMC and Intel do. So they aren't using new water
@@xtreme242yeah I'll be back to comment on these videos in 2050😂
@user-cr1iz8fw6h it's objective fact so it'll still be as true then as it is now
Pretty sure we kicked the alfalfa out
I’ve been in Phoenix since 1968, raised Phoenician. Have I see Phoenix grow and grow and grow. There were 85,000 people in who decided to call it home in 2023 . The Cities west of Phoenix are now unrecognizable. Where once there was desert are homes and business. I can remember Avondale grocery shopping was an AJ Bayless, Checker Auto, Yellowfront, Salvation Army Thrift Store. If you wanted more of a variety you drove too Phoenix. My family lived out in White Tanks
so, if you needed anything we drove to Avondale. The Circle K was built later and I can remember thinking it was the neatest thing. My oldest Brother lives in Surprise, my middle Brother lives in Goodyear and my youngest Brother lives in Litchfield Park. They really liked the West Side of Phoenix. Interstate 10 didn’t exsist, there was Interstate 17, Grand Ave ( the 60 and Interstate 85. That’s all folks!
Phoenicians are from Phoenicia (modern day Lebanon).
Interstate 10 has existed since 1957.
Yes, I remember Cornet, Yellow Front and A.J. Bayless. We lived in Litchfield Park and A.J. Bayless as the closest supermarket (we had Mayfair Market as our local corner store). I remember when there was no I-10 and just I-17 (just two lanes each way at that!). But growing up in Litchfield was so great in the 1970s and 80s. Clean and safe and neighborly. I am going to sell my condos as I just bought a big 2-story house on the Litchfield Park/Goodyear border a few months ago.
I hate it here so much. I moved here quite a few years ago into a suburb outside of Phoenix while it just was starting to grow. All of the farmland around my house is rapidly starting to disappear and is starting to take shape of an actual suburban hellhole…
That's probably a good thing. You don't put farmland in a desert. That's why you have water problems.
@@stargazer7644Really? Take a look at every human cradle of civilization in the world. Pull your head out.
Steve Kaiser tried to deregulate the zoning laws to allow duplexes and triplexes but could never get it passed. All the cities lobbied against the bill. I’m not crazy about the idea but I guess it’s better than all the McMansions they flip affordable old houses with.
Same with Texas so many adorable areas even near DT but now any small affordable house has been erased & replaced with McMansions that are poorly built with dogshit materials. New construction is ass
Everyone trips on zoning it's supposed to keep comunities nicer/more livable but the only places in any city or town with any charm where everyone wants to be are the areas that got developed before all these policies. "Old Town" downtown etc. I work all over my city and going out to the outskirts where they got new generic housing and no walkable amenities is literally anxiety inducing.
I got out of AZ three years ago. I couldn't be happier with that decision. I do not miss the sprawl and the heat and the no seasons. My kids are a lot happier, too.
Phoenix native born and raised. I love seeing this city grow. This city is here for the long run idk what yall talking about 😂😅
its so annoying when people confuse pessimism 'phoenix is going to fail' with realism 'the data shows that if they dont change, they will fail'
Thats because we are not going to change.
Hope Phoenix understand they need to make real changes.
They don't
They’ll call it communist propaganda and crank up the AC some more
there working on it.
Absolutely. We need food, water, and shelter. Water scarcity is a terrifying thing
good thing we arent experiencing that
The biggest downside to mixing Single family and High density zoning is it typically increases the violent crime rate in that area. Therefore, it could eliminate the "Good Side of Town" safer neighborhoods.
There's numerous studies on this.
Once water really becomes an issue that cannot be addressed the city will collapse and real estate will implode. People sitting on commercial or residential will be bag holders when the music stops.
It would be great for you to talk how taxes differ in Chandler who is 93% built out vs a growing city. Most cities rely on fees for new development
Great video! I’ve lived here my whole life and learned quite a bit just now. It’s hard to believe how much things have changed over the years so far.
My GF pays 1,2k for a tiny studio apartment in a Phoenix suburb. It’s madness!
And if you move in with her you'll be paying that.😂
@@danielsnook5029 Nice assumption lol unortunately youre wrong as Im not American and wont be able to work for the first few months so shes actually gonna pay majority rent in that time period (:
It's almost double that in California.
I wonder what water use patterns per unit are like between different residential land uses.
On average, single family homes use over 50% of their water for landscaping. Denser living would almost certainly decrease the amount of water used per person.
@@derekkellogg8414Yeah, this is a great point. From just a landscaping perspective, living in an apartment uses less water. But don't forget that many people in the suburbs have their own pools, and those consume tons of water as well.
@@derekkellogg8414landscaping water use is based in how compatible your landscaping is with your climate.
In the Northeast if you ignore a patch of bare dirt it will start growing grass and weeds in a couple weeks. The problem is people are trying to bring our grassy aesthetic to a desert and being surprised that it isn't sustainable.
My general philosophy is that the only effort you should need to put into your yard is trimming and cleaning. If you add something then it should be a native, ideally to the area but atleast to the climate zone. (Meaning plant desert plants in desert cities)
So you won't "run out of water," you just wont be able to afford it? I'll never understand how people in a desert can afford to be complacent about water "after" a 20+ year drought.
You don't have 20 year droughts. After 20 years that's what we call "normal precipitation".
Water is a human right and all..
but we have to some price signal to disincentive unsustainable developments in the desert.
the state has at least realized they are screwed
I’ve lived in Phoenix for 20 years and learned a few things. Air conditioning is a matter of life and death;A/C depends on super reliable power (which we have had); our “base load” is supported by the Palo Verde Nuclear Power Plant which is extremely well run; this plant uses a massive amount of recycling water for cooling (up to 60,000 gallons per minute) which comes from the west side of Phoenix. Toilet-To-Tap is a wonderful idea but must be balanced by our need to run Palo Verde. Solar is great but can’t support the base load without a means of storage. I know Palo Verde is studying was to use less water but I suspect it will cost more.
Bottom line: this is a complex problem needing many solutions.
im still mindblown that phoenix exists and is growing. its so hot and car dependant. what do people do for fun? what do you do on a day off? what do kids do before they have access to a car? why do people want a grass lawn if they live in the desert? why did they build a city in the hottest valley of an already hot region? i will never understand this city
If you have the money you have a pool. If you don't you're a couch potato. As for kids? For fun? They're glued to their phones and gaming consoles.
@@petercollingwood522 Absolutely false. You have no idea what you are talking about.
@@giantslug6969 I live here and know exactly what I'm talking about.
Kids still play outside here in socal haha that’s why everyone hates
It's genuinely mindboggling. It's not like Phoenix is necessarily cheap either, cities like Houston are still cheaper, and have far better weather. I could never in good faith move to Phoenix with kids, it would be like hell. Between being cooked alive, and the suburban sprawl, it would be terrible.
Los Angeles is running out water before Phoenix az
It'll be so funny to watch these loser urban planners lose their minds.
I'm from VA and moved to Phoenix 3 years ago and it has been the worst living experience in my entire life. Worst drivers imaginable, everyone is impatient, it's hot, and no cold water until the winter
worst drivers? youve not been to LA...
We lived in Fairfax, Virginia prior to moving here 2 years ago. We agree it’s the worst place we have ever lived. We’re heading back East next week and can’t wait!
@littlemissroxie yay! Good luck! we are planning to move back east within the next couple of years
FANTASTIC job... really one of the few videos that covers the deeper discussions going on. I save every video on this subject (playlist). Lately I've been learning the critical role the Gila River Tribe had on making Arizona water work, to-date. They got their water rights back before other tribes, and have been instrumental in keeping the Colorado River Compact functioning... they'll be a critical voice for the 2026 update. All the best [TUX].
If you use an aquifer faster than it's recharge rate, it will run out. Arizona is using it's aquifers faster than they are being recharged. I don't know how long that will take to run out of ground water but I know it will happen.
Arizona isn't the only place. Most of the United States is negative in water usage - we will probably be out of water by 2040 for the Central US - used to produce food.
Affordable housing is a broad term, and the homeless camping in piles of garbage are often addicts and/or mentally ill. Some people need government funded rehabilitation, or in-patient care, before they can live independently.
hey man, just wanna say, its insane you made this video at an old hangout spot me and my friends used to chill at once and a while. 4:59
its just so silly seeing you take my same commute to work, approach within 10 minutes of my old house, etc. while just talking about this. at the same time though, it REALLY puts into perspective just how many of us are cramped in this state.
Density is the solution. Everyone can’t live in a single family home. Roads aren’t what makes a great neighborhood and community.
Santa Ana, CA is waiting for you. Everything is within a 5 minute walk from downtown. Schools, markets, drugstores, homeless people, gang tags, post office, bars, fireworks at 3AM, obnoxious music all night long while you are trying to sleep, restaurants, boutiques, police brutality, garbage, highrise apartment building, affordable housing. All crammed into a dense, walkable, people-centric city. If you want it, come move here today.
The city has a great personality.
actually we can all live in a single family home. been making it happen for almost a hundred years here
@@kasufert
>Everything is within 5 minutes of walking from black people
fixed it for you
Thank you for your fine video which explained everything very logically. I could run back to the great lakes region, or I could just stay here. By the time Phoenix runs out of water for real, I'll probably be gone. Carry on.
The habitability of Phoenix will also depend on if we follow the RCP2.5 to RCP8.5 model. At 8.5, there will be many days in summer by 2050 that may fall out of the standards of human habitability even with air conditioning. Air conditioners in Phoenix are rated for 107F (older homes), 113F (newer homes). They will work beyond that temp but they lose efficiency exponentially after 113. Temps of 120+ cause AC's to cycle 5x more which leads to them breaking years ahead of their operation life-cycles and juicing the grid. Luckily Arizona can offset with solar for electricity but the cost of an AC replacement can bankrupt a family and trying to go more than 24 hours without AC at 120+ is not possible.
Here in Australia it’s similar. but what there doing in the suburbs is making the blocks so small the roofs of each house almost touch. So they can fit as many single family homes into a new suburb as much as possible
If you are living so close the houses are almost touching, then it sounds more like a townhouse with a few inches of separation. Maybe thats great as a starter home for young adults, but having practically no yard (because the houses are almost touching) as a homeowner sounds unappealing.
@@DethflashA yard to me has always seemed like a bunch of extra chores and work for little meaningful payoff. I don't want to spend every Saturday morning in the summer slaving away behind a lawnmower. If I want to have a barbeque, I could just as easily go to a local park and use one of their pits. If I want to garden, there are many community gardens I could join or do the rental garden plot thing like they have in Germany. The fact that single family homes with Lawns are mandatory in most of the US is just imposing an unnecessary burden on much of the population.
@@Dethflash it really is all you get for a yard is a square patio area and some grass down the sides but not much
@@jonathanbowers8964 My married friends swear by their big yards but they never use them. Even when they host a party we all mostly gather around the small paved area around the door. Personally I prefer a smaller inlet type of a yard and only because I have a dog that needs to poop and play fetch.
Big yards are kind of a necessity for Americans. We don't want to be close to our neighbors. Privacy is important to us.
Golf courses and lawns in a desert city feels like a comedy skit. Ban golf courses and lawns in the desert. It's hilariously inefficient.
that would at least take care of the ugly golf shorts problem.
Do you live in AZ? Do you know what kind of water golf courses use? Do you understand the water system in AZ?
I do recall they focus on reclaimed water, even some (or maybe even all?) of the regular city parks do. Still using up land that could be used to add density. Or hell even just reshaped into a regular park for the city without memberships needed.
The biggest problem by far in Arizona is not golf courses or lawns (most of which no longer exist as people switch to xeriscaping) but agriculture. Stopping farming in the desert will have the biggest impact on water issues by far.
@@petercollingwood522that’s not realistic. What is more realistic is us eating less meat so less crops overall need to be grown
Came to an end at least 10 years ago. Lots of mid-rise and high-rise buildings going up in central and uptown, as well as Camelback east, Tempe, and probably other locations. The Valley is just turning in to LA, which went through this process 50 to 75 year ago.
When people who move to the middle of the desert wonder why there’s no water 🤯
theres more than plenty of water. we get majority from the salt/verde rivers not colorado
Thank you for your more reasonable approach and what looks to be a really cool housing project. I tend to get really frustrated with the narrative of this area being too hot and dry for a city of this size. There is a way that you can have a city of this size that uses water sustainably, is cooler, and receives more rainfall. That way just isn't car-centric.
How do you plan on increasing rainfall?! 😅
@@StLouis-yu9iz By asking the clouds nicely.
Actually, there are a couple of issues at play. The first is the heat island effect. The massive heat island of the Phoenix metro area disrupts weather patterns and weakens storm systems. This leads to less rainfall.
The second is that rainfall is a complex interaction between soil, plants, and atmospheric moisture. For the sake of simplicity, you can think of a healthy soil as a living sponge. When it rains, a healthy soil can absorb that rainfall locally rather than having that water drain off and leave the system. Indeed, there is a vast body of information out there showing how no-till farming increases water infiltration (I can provide if needed).
Next, remember that plants that are not water stressed will release water vapor as they respire (especially at night). Indeed, more than water, plants release nucleating agents that promote cloud formation. In other words, healthy plants increase atmospheric moisture and promote cloud formation. This means that healthy soils and plants could accelerate storm systems rather than weakening them. If you would like examples of how to increase soil health and plant coverage in the desert, I would highly recommend Brad Lancaster (Tucson) and/or Geoff Lawton (Australia and Jordan). Both of their actions are on too small of a scale to change rainfall, but their efforts applied over an area as large as the Phoenix metro area could very easily have an enormous impact if it were paired with an urbanist approach to city planning.
It’s not a narrative though it’s factual. Phoenix area has the lowest density of any metro in the US. Are you going to tear it all down and start a new? There’s no saving Phoenix from being car centric
@@cjthompson420 Please cite your source for the PHX metro being the lowest density of any metro area in the US. A short perusal indicates that metro areas like KC and Las Vegas both rank lower. I've also lived in the KC area and would concur with this assessment.
Second, low densities are actively maintained through construction codes and zoning laws. Change the laws favoring cars and developers will do the work for you.
Cities like Houston tore down car-unfriendly city centers to make room for cars. It seems hypocritical to think that the reverse is somehow out of bounds.
@@derekkellogg8414 It's not the center of the city that matters. Even if you make the city center "car unfriendly" you are simply increasing inconvenience for people who have to visit the city center for business etc, and you are only going to increase habbitation in the center by a small amount for wealthy people who don't have or want families.
Thanks for this video. I live just off of Grand Ave (before it becomes a stroad) and I really hope this line of thinking takes off. More density, smarter water use, and more desert space to enjoy … the desert.
I love your optimism! Keep it up and good luck Arizona! 💪
I just learned what a “stroad” was. I’m an AZ native. I leaned to drive on basic 1-lane-each-direction roads. I really dislike driving the stroads. A cop once told me how horrifying it is to direct traffic at a 24 lane intersection.. To get 24 idiot drivers to pay attention and stop/go in unison. I never thought of that. 😂
Looking at the weather in Phoenix makes me happy i live in a place that snows.
Looking at videos of snow makes me happy to live in Phoenix
@@danieldaniels7571 Lol well winter/snow is only really bad in the Great Lakes region like Chicago, Buffalo, etc. The shorter days are the real pain if you are up north. Being stuck inside AC all the time during summer is just insane to me.
@@AssBlasster I’m not stuck inside. I have a swimming pool. Most everyone here does.
I don't think it snowed at all in NYC for the past 6 years. I even stopped bothering to take out my winter clothes as my sweater + windbreaker is often enough
@@AssBlasster I trail ride on a dirt bike in phoenix when it's 115f. You are delusional.
Your production value and writing/research has improved vastly from your older videos. Great job.
Those cul-de sac communities look super interesting. California/LA is no where near as hot as AZ but I'd appreciate some of those here. We seem to have some fascination with those super blocks from Barcelona but with our climate i feel like the cul de sac's are way more our speed.
What will the boomers do once they no longer are able to drive , and once the country can't afford to take care of their aging population because they squandered 30 trillion dollars in the last 20 years while now requiring the country to spend close to 750 billion a year on interest payments?
I had 30 trillion dollars? Oh, you mean politicians wasted 30 trillion dollars. I don’t agree with practically anything they ever do. I thought you just wanted us to all die so you could party. Can’t I just get an Uber?
@@katydid2877 The idea that we need migrants to pay taxes to fund boomercare is total bullshit, we're spending close to 3/4 of a trillion dollars because a bunch of manchildren didn't want to balance the budget since the year 2001.
I care about the debt because the interest payments. 750 billion dollars a year, what would you spend that money on instead of giving it to bankers?
To give you an idea how disturbing 750 billion dollars of yearly interest payments is that you could pay off all the Nation's medical debt for less than half that amount(i hear it's around 200-300 billion dollars total). A few years of saving up you could also pay off the student debt.
It's outrageous that the boomers dare argue that we can't switch to EVs because of the "grid" when it's their stupid ass generation that let the grid fall apart to begin with.
When they say we need to modernize the grid AND say that we can't switch to EVs because of the "grid" the boomers are quietly saying that they should be able to dictate what the infrastructure should look like once they're all dead.
They want to invest the minimum to not have rolling brown outs but not enough to provide for the needs of the country for the next 100 years.
What the boomer generation did was the equivalent of using all of the money in their bank account so their kids or grand kids they hate couldn't inherit money.
They're a bunch of bitter assholess who don't believe in the afterlife and so they feel their biological clock ticking down which makes them very angry & upset.
That's why their policies they support is akin to wanting somebody to punch people who they hate in the face. They don't want a 2nd new deal, they want a bully in office and not say Eisenhower or FDR.
@@katydid2877 I wonder which politicians the majority of boomers vote for.
@@oliverparker425 No idea. Every city and state has a split of votes. People over 59 don’t all live in the same place. Is Cali only people under 59? Oregon? Washington? New York? Who voted for Barry twice and the melon head in the White House today?
@@oliverparker425 israel?
Soaring temperatures and water shortage in a desert will definitely affect it, worse than Las Vegas.
They're going to be in so much debt when the growth ends and all those roads need to be repaired.
They're really not. Cause they're masterplanned and a lot of Phoenix suburbs are very urban, have sustained themselves for decades.
The conclusion of this video is that housing prices are going to go up in Phoenix by 2050, due to a variety of factors. My question for you now is how does that make Phoenix different from literally each & every city throughout the world? If suburban development erases thirsty agriculture, if Phoenix follows Austin and allows triplexes, and if Queen Creek and Buckeye make water deals and even build canals from other watersheds, all of this seems like non-problems. You might be angry about stroads but the one you're specifically talking about in the northwest valley will eventually become Interstate 11. And Queen Creek is only developing uniquely because the east valley is more culturally desirable than the west valley. I'm also surprised you didn't talk about the 4 skyscrapers in Phoenix being built along the light rail corridor and the 11 giant skyscrapers being built along Tempe Town Lake along its streetcar corridor.
Even the downtown looks like car dependent garbage. Why would anybody choose to live in this terrible place?
Feel free not to.
They are expanding the light rail all the time
The downtown is improving. Last I was there lots of higher density housing was under construction but not to the scale of other large cities.
🤣🤣
Carphobia is such an interesting phenomenon. Maybe the lockdowns from covid have turned so many like you into hermits peaking through the blinds and yelling at roads.
I remember flying over Phoenix as my first time ever leaving the PNW and it was absolutely wild to me
How is the PNW? I’ve been looking into moving to Washington State from New York
@@lanxy2398 i mean I love it but obviously I'm a bit biased. I've never been to New York but from what I've heard west of the Cascades has similar weather
Really appreciate the non-partisan approach this topic. I have two questions relating to water usage in Phoenix I'd love to get your thoughts on. First: How does the density of housing reduce water usage? Whether ten poeple move into single family homes or ten people move into duplexes doesnt change the water usage as there are still ten new residents showering, flushing toilets, ect. Second: you mentioned a couple times how much water usage is used agriculturally. Are you advocating for less agriculture in the Pheonix area?
Lawns use a tremendous amount of water. When I got rid of my 600FT^2 lawn my household water usage dropped by 1/2. Also any water used inside goes down the drain to the water treatment plant and is then used for watering golf courses, parks or recharging ground water. It isn't wasted.
@@jamestucker8088 I don't have any quantitative data for this, but I would assume based on trends in the industry and anecdotal data that most of the new suburban construction in the area does not have lawns and uses desertscape. Regardless of this however, excess water in the irrigation of landscpaing returns to the water table where it is again used and again. It too, isnt wasted.
It’s mainly about landscaping and other amenities (e.g., pools).
@@grahamturner2640yeah, it seems like a no brainer that you'll use less water if you share a pool with 40 units than if every one of your neighbors has their own pool in their own back yard
Its because neighborhoods dont want multi family buildings because they are mostly lower rent, and they dont want the crime and property value loss that comes with them.
Shout-out to California's Senate Bill 9, which ended single-family housing in the state, in the sense that if you have a house on a lot, you can add an ADU and/or split the lot to construct a second house (and second ADU) on the other lot, for a total of up to 4 units anywhere that is currently zoned/built out with just 1.
The only problem is that other municipal codes (e.g. setbacks, driveway requirements) still apply, which eliminates probably 95% of houses from the pool. After all, you would need 12-20' for a driveway (depending on jurisdiction) to the second lot, but most houses are built with a 5-10' side yard.
Funny thing is the suburb is better than the farmland water use wise. Way better in fact.
They gotta ditch the farms and treat it like how we do in Vegas. You live in a desert. No farms.
We also reuse all water that goes down all sinks and drains and toilets. Yes including black water and it all gets cleaned and put back into the system. We actually as a city put water back into Lake Mead every year. Only water “wasted” is water used outdoors that doesn’t get into a street drain.
idk man stopping the farming of alfalfa type stuff sounds like a good way to fix this problem
There are 7 reservoirs in SRP's system, it's not just a network of canals. Why is that important? Water supply storage to help us get through the dry times.
The houses are much less bad in terms of water use than the farms they were replacing were. So as far as water goes, in the desert sprawl seems to be better than rural.
The problem is it's not just farmlands that being replaced. There are thousands of acres of actual desert that is being converted into sprawl as well.
I lived in different parts of the PHX metro for three years and loved it. My favorite places were Scottsdale and Gilbert whose historic downtowns are some of the most pedestrian friendly parts of the metro. When you've blessed with year round sunshine, it makes NO SENSE to me that they don't lean into that and develop areas where people can walk. The vast majority of the metro is acres upon acres of suburban sprawl with nondescript strip malls and single family homes as far as the eye can see.
The smarter play in places like this is to focus the law on FREEDOM. A lot of “Urban UA-cam” plays to the choir but not the actual audience. Giving people the freedom to do what they want with THEIR land is an argument that flies. Thank you for underscoring that (in a way that most urban UA-cam doesn’t.)
the land existed before you were born, and will exist after you are gone, and you can transfer it while you're alive. it is not "your land." you are renting it, whether you are paying in money or time, you are only renting it, and the rest of society that needs to deal with the consequences of your actions also has a say in what you do with the land that is only temporarily yours to use.
@@perfectallycromulent well central authorities are notorious for using land even worse than the populace so, no tyrant, you're wrong.
@@MemeMan_MEMESQUADHow did you get “the land should belong to the government” from that comment? They implied quite clearly that the land belongs to nobody but the Earth.
@@user-mx2ky5ui8e "the rest of society that needs to deal with the consequences of your actions also has a say in what you do with the land". Not the "Earth", whatever that means since a big rock doesn't have any decision making power, but the mechanism of society that can make decisions. Which is the government.
great content as a fellow Arizonians this was cool to watch. Make a video on the housing crisis
Your Internet research has concluded that food can be grown w less water? That Arizona needs more strip malls and roads and parking lots and less farmland? Used to be riding into Phoenix at night you could immediately tell when you were nearing the city limits because the temperature would go up.. still happens but now it's many many miles earlier because of sprawl and endless increases in pavement and blacktop and building, you can still smell the desert, but it's getting harder as you need to drive 50 miles away
I got a job in Phoenix and transferred out after a year. The heat was crappy but it was so incredibly lonely. It’s so car dependent, so unwalkable, so suburban and so ungodly spread out that I felt so lonely and depressed. I wasn’t the only one I knew in my company that left ASAP - all of us who weren’t from there or use to such a suburban sprawl bolted as fast as we could.
Yes. Even Dubai has the Arabian Sea/Persian Gulf. Phoenix needs transit, densification and more trees!
Appreciate you voicing your opinon on Phoenix. The city will be more than fine.
People on reddit were telling me that golf courses were fine, but that people shouldn't live in deserts. I was so frustrated responding to them.
Gulf courses uses nonpotable water, and metro cites of Phoenix also uses nonpotable water for the landscaping.
I live in the Salt Lake City area and the growth and constant construction here makes my quality of life terrible.
I think the reason why people are hesitant to build more high density buildings is twofold. First of all, that tends to lead to higher incidences of crime especially property crime. The effect of that is the second reason which is lowering property values. It’s a complicated issue, but in Gilbert where they’re starting to build a lot more apartment buildings, you’re starting to see property crimes on the rise, which is exactly what people were concerned about. It's up 5% over year and continues to grow especially in the areas near the apartment complexes.
But how much more people live there? Of course Downtown Manhattan has more criminals than some desert town.
Funny thing is, on a per capital basis, NYC is pretty safe.
@@Demopans5990Yes because it has so many rich suburbs outside the city. Within the city, you are never safe, especially now.
What I see from my town is the unbridled greed that my town leaders exhibit, as they continually accept money from builders of these small, crap box apartments. There is no consideration of the impact that more people have on a community: increased traffic on small roads; sewage issues; higher crime. When I look around, I feel like I am back in NY, where I came from. I LOVED the farmlands and these are good for the desert, as they dissipate heat from the day. People grumble that we are experiencing high temps because of climate change when it's really the lack of open land. Asphalt and ceramic tile absorb heat without letting it go at night, so the daytime low is not as cool as it ought to be. I will be leaving Phoenix metro for a more rural, less populated, with less chance of becoming populated, as soon as the mortgage rates allow.
This is a lot of words just to tell us you're a NIMBY...
Thomas can we get a little Strong Towns Phoenix organization going?
Is there a Strong Towns in Phoenix?
Thank you for this video!
The shots of the freeways and Grand Ave, are making me homesick for Phoenix!
i would be so depressed and nihilistic if i had to live in this god-forsaken urban area
Thank you for reminding or teaching people, communities use less water than farmlands.
I feel like recently Gilbert has built alot of apartments and townhomes along the santan mall area but outside of there, there isn’t much