Course links ✅ Why you do NOT need to spend thousands on investment courses? LEARN HOW to research into stocks and identify multi-baggers (at least in Josh Tan's way). Course price at $37 only. NEW 2022 BONUS MODULE ADDED and UNLIMITED re-access given with this new structure for future revision. ~ Follow this link - jtinvestacademy.thinkific.com/courses/investment All sales will be donated away via JOSH TAN BURSARY for needy students
Thanks for sharing your insights Josh. It is a pity that you are not going to cover this sector much more as it is always great to see you covering non-mainstream topics. Even a monthly update on this commodity wave would be useful.
Hi, imo the companies are sound and profitable even at current palm oil price. Palm oil prices have crashed from 7k to 4k. I guess the drop is likely attributable to recession concerns/forecast. Have you seen this sharing? "If Recession Comes, This Could Happen To Oil And Commodities | Sharing My Thoughts On Buying Now!" ua-cam.com/video/ivnNZVvJ6Dg/v-deo.html
Josh, the money is in commodities over the next few years so I would not stop looking at them.As regards Indonesian palm oil coys, you need look at what the government there is doing to STOP exports. They want the produce to stay in Indonesia ( with price control ) and so are increasing export taxes.
Dont have any leading ones yet. Even the benchmark is relatively unheard of. Thats how under appreciated it is. TOP 5 INVESTMENT IDEAS FOR MARCH 2022 🔥 How To Invest Into Energy, Agriculture And Gold - first 2 may fit ua-cam.com/video/HqmTlh2SorE/v-deo.html
Volume needs to increase for it to continue as a bull and become a bagger. Thats a consequence of market popularity and more allocation from indexes and funds which is lacking now. But if it does not turn out well and commodities are no longer squeezed, then volume would likely drop back and selling then may be at a loss. I cannot guarantee anything. Just sharing how I approach things. Hope it clarifies
@@joshconsultancy the owner try to privatised few yrs back but fail at 32.5 cnts... he now hold almost 90% .. so wont be surprised he take private at higher price closer to its book value of 78 cents a share.. company now profitable...making sg 100 over million profit
Can do. Some like TH plantation have even outperformed. Malaysia palm companies face lesser taxes actually. Its just that I dont have access to KLSE. If you're familiar they could work too =)
But the companies you mentioned in your video are mainly based in Indonesia ? Would their revenue be affected by export tariff by the government? Wouldn’t it be better to look for Malaysian plantation companies instead ?
Commodities are suppose to be boring. It’s starting to get traction. Possibly new all time high. It’s also not sustainable, so I think its great you emphasize that this is a short term play. My money’s on keppel, smm and wilmar. Probably exiting when the war ends.
Thanks. Some points to add, Wilmar makes a large part of its money in downstream which is milling and production of oil to industrial or retail markets. Keppel will be selling their O&M to SMM .
Hi Josh, how do you think the sudden export ban will affect these indo palm oil stocks? I have a feeling it will be really negative for the industry since export prices are definately higher
Bumitama sells internally to crushers and doesnt export. Internal sales are business as usual and more than enough demand. Im unsure on impact too but Indo has been flip flopping on this every few weeks
The Low viewership shows that commodities is still a contrarian play which is heavily overlooked! When it becomes mainstream on UA-cam, that’s a sell signal!
There is a reason these are called primary industries. They are first. The farmer can live without the computer manufacturer or programmer, but not vice versa.
I also have the biggest in Bumitama 😊 But I’m genuinely concerned about the CPO export levy & Indonesia Govt propensity to flip flop or to further increase the export levy
Aware. More sharing here DO NOT BUY COMMODITIES UNTIL YOU HEAR THIS... | How To Invest Into Commodities And Commodity Stocks ua-cam.com/video/P8K-5YuBpGU/v-deo.html
This morning Brent closed at US$120 ! Just pump SPC octane 92 @ $3 ! On fri , i buy 10k shares of Geo resources . If drop to 44 cts , i will buy some more . Can use cpf OA 4 my wife also .
@@joshconsultancy my japan made Toyota Sienta 's spec call 4 octane 88 n above . Important is EO use. I buy Mobil One 5W30 EO n tell WS to chge . Let them earn oil filter n labour charges
@@joshconsultancy I agree...but if oil runs hot, inflation runs hot, the government can put price controls like coal in China. Need to know whens the exit before that happens.
These palm oil stocks had made a wave up and stock are now retracing down. Will closely monitor the 3 stocks. Wilmar just begin to break uptrend. Keppel, hourglass and construction sector also track with the relaxing of covid rules 😊
Hi Thomas, Wilmar benefits of course from a commodities supercycle. It may become one of STI's top performer for 2022. However, it makes a large part of its money in downstream which is milling and production of oil to industrial or retail markets. Bumitama is someone who plants and actually sells some of its raw palm to Wilmar who can process. Wilmar also trades in many forms of commodities. Mr Market is suggesting now that the biggest upside is in upstream planters IF it plays out like what Ive narrated
Based on your analysis what do you think is the target price on the 3 stocks based on discounted cash flow or price to book ? Being lazy here but love to hear your answers and we can compare notes 😀
I avoid mentioning target prices as consistent with all tutorials. May share more updates along the way in the members channel. since its a niche topic. Invest safe, cya around
Wilmar benefits of course. It may become one of STI's top performer for 2022. However, it makes a large part of its money in downstream which is milling and production of oil to industrial or retail market. Bumitama for one plants and sells some of its raw palm to wilmar who can process. Wilmar also trades in many forms of commodities. Mr Market is suggesting now that the biggest upside is in upstream planters IF it plays out like what Ive narrated
Thanks for deep dive josh. Tkey assumptions are that war will drag on, and covid impacts are still felt. Many countries are opening up, loosening controls. So how sustainable are the high prices of palm oil?
Its a cycle. Wont be sustainable. Squeeze is now. The guess is actually can it be a) 6000 average to year end b) higher average than RM6000 for this year c) collapse back to average RM4000. If A we win, B we win BIG. If c, too bad... thats how I see it
But why wouldn't u want to continue making videos on commodities ? If the shares u've narrated here continue to bull run greatly in the near term... wouldn't u have proven that ur hypothesis is right ? U would be seen as a very accurate predictor and credible analyst...
@Josh Tan - TheAstuteParent Arh, ok. I get it. Very authentic answer.. LoL... But nonetheless, thanks so much for the unique perspective when tech tocks are all the rage these days ... and, some of ur earlier prognosis like your recommendation on Malaysian Smelting (i saw this some time back) has increased a lot ! You were spot on... though it did take some time ! Hope u r right again....thanks for all the detailed analysis on commodities all this while 😀
Good insight! I was looking for this kind of study, you are right there are very little research on it. I will be looking more on companies in Malaysia because I’m Malaysian.
Of the 2 Key parts, increase the volume of production abLOVE cost really crack me up. Seriously, It's a really good content! Would you be sharing if it's there any changes like out of favours or updates?
Wilmar benefits of course. It may become one of STI's top performer for 2022. However, it makes a large part of its money in downstream which is milling and production of oil to industrial or retail market. Bumitama for one plants and sells some of its raw palm to wilmar who can process. Wilmar also trades in many forms of commodities. Mr Market is suggesting now that the biggest upside is in upstream planters IF it plays out like what Ive narrated
Course links
✅ Why you do NOT need to spend thousands on investment courses?
LEARN HOW to research into stocks and identify multi-baggers (at least in Josh Tan's way). Course price at $37 only. NEW 2022 BONUS MODULE ADDED and UNLIMITED re-access given with this new structure for future revision.
~ Follow this link - jtinvestacademy.thinkific.com/courses/investment
All sales will be donated away via JOSH TAN BURSARY for needy students
signed up. 🙏
ive been looking into golden agri-res ive rly strong gut about it
Will do an update on agri stocks soon stay tuned =)
hi josh, thanks, looks like i am year too late for this video
Not late, no worries. My palm oil holdings have yet to do well
Thanks for sharing your insights Josh. It is a pity that you are not going to cover this sector much more as it is always great to see you covering non-mainstream topics. Even a monthly update on this commodity wave would be useful.
Thank you for the encouragement. Appreciated
Hi Josh, any advice on holding/ selling Bumitama/ First Resources in the current climate?
Hi, imo the companies are sound and profitable even at current palm oil price. Palm oil prices have crashed from 7k to 4k. I guess the drop is likely attributable to recession concerns/forecast. Have you seen this sharing? "If Recession Comes, This Could Happen To Oil And Commodities | Sharing My Thoughts On Buying Now!" ua-cam.com/video/ivnNZVvJ6Dg/v-deo.html
I can feel the passion and confidence coming from you. It must be hours of tireless research!!!
Though I am not into oil, but I like your convictions in whatever you are in.
Josh, the money is in commodities over the next few years so I would not stop looking at them.As regards Indonesian palm oil coys, you need look at what the government there is doing to STOP exports. They want the produce to stay in Indonesia ( with price control ) and so are increasing export taxes.
Yes aware. All sg listed palm oil players are indo planters
Thanks for breaking down these valuable info. Really enjoy your deep dives into companies.
No probs. Hope it bears fruits for all of us!
Took your advise and bot some bumitama.
I personally like Bumitama but Ive to avoid claiming its a personal advice. No guarantees, hope it pans out well =)
@@joshconsultancy don’t worry Josh, we all take responsibility for our own investments la. This will be a short term trade I think
Jose, I like your idea. Is there a Agriculture related or food production related unit trust?
Dont have any leading ones yet. Even the benchmark is relatively unheard of. Thats how under appreciated it is. TOP 5 INVESTMENT IDEAS FOR MARCH 2022 🔥 How To Invest Into Energy, Agriculture And Gold - first 2 may fit ua-cam.com/video/HqmTlh2SorE/v-deo.html
@@joshconsultancy will take a look. Thank you!
Trading volume seems low historically. It is only recent there is an increase. Do you forsee a problem to sell off in the future if hold long term?
Volume needs to increase for it to continue as a bull and become a bagger. Thats a consequence of market popularity and more allocation from indexes and funds which is lacking now. But if it does not turn out well and commodities are no longer squeezed, then volume would likely drop back and selling then may be at a loss. I cannot guarantee anything. Just sharing how I approach things. Hope it clarifies
Excellent video Josh, liked and subscribed!
Cya around =)
Indofood agri is cheap.. better get that one..
It seems to be the least preferred by Mr Market
@@joshconsultancy the owner try to privatised few yrs back but fail at 32.5 cnts... he now hold almost 90% .. so wont be surprised he take private at higher price closer to its book value of 78 cents a share.. company now profitable...making sg 100 over million profit
What is your opinion on malaysian palm oil stocks? Such as KLK or United Plantations.
Can do. Some like TH plantation have even outperformed. Malaysia palm companies face lesser taxes actually. Its just that I dont have access to KLSE. If you're familiar they could work too =)
would indonesia prevent export of palm oils and fixed price for local consumption ? then their revenue would be affected ?
Yes indo gov may. In such a situation, it also means theres little over supply and prices are high
But the companies you mentioned in your video are mainly based in Indonesia ? Would their revenue be affected by export tariff by the government? Wouldn’t it be better to look for Malaysian plantation companies instead ?
Commodities are suppose to be boring. It’s starting to get traction. Possibly new all time high. It’s also not sustainable, so I think its great you emphasize that this is a short term play.
My money’s on keppel, smm and wilmar. Probably exiting when the war ends.
Thanks. Some points to add, Wilmar makes a large part of its money in downstream which is milling and production of oil to industrial or retail markets. Keppel will be selling their O&M to SMM .
Hi Josh, how do you think the sudden export ban will affect these indo palm oil stocks? I have a feeling it will be really negative for the industry since export prices are definately higher
Bumitama sells internally to crushers and doesnt export. Internal sales are business as usual and more than enough demand. Im unsure on impact too but Indo has been flip flopping on this every few weeks
Thanks for the deep dive details of all the three companies.
No probs, invest safe!
The Low viewership shows that commodities is still a contrarian play which is heavily overlooked! When it becomes mainstream on UA-cam, that’s a sell signal!
Signal to HODL! Dont sell too fast. Thats where it really has a chance of becoming a multi-bagger =)
There is a reason these are called primary industries. They are first. The farmer can live without the computer manufacturer or programmer, but not vice versa.
Well said =)
I also have the biggest in Bumitama 😊 But I’m genuinely concerned about the CPO export levy & Indonesia Govt propensity to flip flop or to further increase the export levy
😊. CPO levy part is only because it is doing well and in demand. If there are surplus everywhere and price is low, its a worse situation
bear flag n first resource..commodities crashing .......
Aware. More sharing here DO NOT BUY COMMODITIES UNTIL YOU HEAR THIS... | How To Invest Into Commodities And Commodity Stocks ua-cam.com/video/P8K-5YuBpGU/v-deo.html
This morning Brent closed at US$120 ! Just pump SPC octane 92 @ $3 ! On fri , i buy 10k shares of Geo resources . If drop to 44 cts , i will buy some more . Can use cpf OA 4 my wife also .
octane 92? will spoil engine? I usually 95
@@joshconsultancy my japan made Toyota Sienta 's spec call 4 octane 88 n above . Important is EO use. I buy Mobil One 5W30 EO n tell WS to chge . Let them earn oil filter n labour charges
What about fx risk
THe bigger risk is the cycle peak?
@@joshconsultancy I agree...but if oil runs hot, inflation runs hot, the government can put price controls like coal in China. Need to know whens the exit before that happens.
These palm oil stocks had made a wave up and stock are now retracing down. Will closely monitor the 3 stocks.
Wilmar just begin to break uptrend. Keppel, hourglass and construction sector also track with the relaxing of covid rules 😊
Maybe they will break new highs next month haha
Why not Wilmar?
Hi Thomas, Wilmar benefits of course from a commodities supercycle. It may become one of STI's top performer for 2022. However, it makes a large part of its money in downstream which is milling and production of oil to industrial or retail markets. Bumitama is someone who plants and actually sells some of its raw palm to Wilmar who can process. Wilmar also trades in many forms of commodities. Mr Market is suggesting now that the biggest upside is in upstream planters IF it plays out like what Ive narrated
Based on your analysis what do you think is the target price on the 3 stocks based on discounted cash flow or price to book ? Being lazy here but love to hear your answers and we can compare notes 😀
I avoid mentioning target prices as consistent with all tutorials. May share more updates along the way in the members channel. since its a niche topic. Invest safe, cya around
Thanks for sharing, Josh. 👍👍👍
Your views if Wilmar will benefit in this commodity cycle?
Wilmar benefits of course. It may become one of STI's top performer for 2022. However, it makes a large part of its money in downstream which is milling and production of oil to industrial or retail market. Bumitama for one plants and sells some of its raw palm to wilmar who can process. Wilmar also trades in many forms of commodities. Mr Market is suggesting now that the biggest upside is in upstream planters IF it plays out like what Ive narrated
Thanks for deep dive josh.
Tkey assumptions are that war will drag on, and covid impacts are still felt.
Many countries are opening up, loosening controls.
So how sustainable are the high prices of palm oil?
Its a cycle. Wont be sustainable. Squeeze is now. The guess is actually can it be a) 6000 average to year end b) higher average than RM6000 for this year c) collapse back to average RM4000. If A we win, B we win BIG. If c, too bad... thats how I see it
But why wouldn't u want to continue making videos on commodities ? If the shares u've narrated here continue to bull run greatly in the near term... wouldn't u have proven that ur hypothesis is right ? U would be seen as a very accurate predictor and credible analyst...
Coz views matter to ad revenue. Same effort to produce but it’s kind of like a pay cut you know…
@Josh Tan - TheAstuteParent
Arh, ok. I get it. Very authentic answer.. LoL...
But nonetheless, thanks so much for the unique perspective when tech tocks are all the rage these days ... and, some of ur earlier prognosis like your recommendation on Malaysian Smelting (i saw this some time back) has increased a lot ! You were spot on... though it did take some time ! Hope u r right again....thanks for all the detailed analysis on commodities all this while 😀
Good insight! I was looking for this kind of study, you are right there are very little research on it. I will be looking more on companies in Malaysia because I’m Malaysian.
No probs max. Yes you have an edge in Malaysian companies doing plantations. Study everything you can about it now
Of the 2 Key parts, increase the volume of production abLOVE cost really crack me up. Seriously, It's a really good content! Would you be sharing if it's there any changes like out of favours or updates?
Yes will be tracking it. You’d see More updates in members zone
First! Weekend video :)
Thank you THC 👊🏻
Hi Josh,
Thanks for the insightful information.
Man I know why are you not covering Wilma, will it benefit from the demand spike as well ?
Wilmar benefits of course. It may become one of STI's top performer for 2022. However, it makes a large part of its money in downstream which is milling and production of oil to industrial or retail market. Bumitama for one plants and sells some of its raw palm to wilmar who can process. Wilmar also trades in many forms of commodities. Mr Market is suggesting now that the biggest upside is in upstream planters IF it plays out like what Ive narrated
lol, you and your countless facial expressions. 😅😏😄