I am someone who has complete disdain for conspiracy theories, but I have to say that this was a very unsatisfactory interview. "Nobody showed us any evidence for an accidental release, so what is the point of investigating that idea?" Really?? And absolutely no information was presented in the interview or in the WHO report about which live viruses were being kept in these research labs. I'm 99% convinced no lab accident was involved, but not providing even the most basic information which live viruses were being studied in the lab, how they were handled, etc. just feeds into the conspiracy theorists.
I agree. For the sake of all of those affected, including many in China, cooperation like the following would be eminently reasonable and in the interest of all humanity: 1) The sharing with the WHO and an international committee of independent scientists all existing corona virus sequences generated at WIV, the Wuhan CDC and the universities in Wuhan over the last 10 years (this include those in the now hidden database and some that were not yet deposited there), 2) lab records of all isolated (live) corona virus experiments the last 5 years, in particular cell passaging and humanized mouse work, 3) records of all 'reverse genetic* constructs (synthetic corona viruses) if any. Such cooperation is not putative. As far as 1 and 2 is concerned, the WIV director has freely shared that such work was conducted*. She expressed the reasonable rational human desire to either find the origin if it is from one of the several Wuhan labs spanning BSL 1 to BSL 4, or thoroughly clear the labs. There is no suspicion of malice. The worst case scenario is that there was an accident. Whenever we have a disaster like an airplane crash, something that affects a vastly smaller number of people than this, we turn every stone. We open every relevant record and logbook. When we have a chemical plant or refinery explosion even the Exxon's and BP's of the world open whatever record and data is necessary to get to the root cause. If the oil industry can do it when the victims and impact is a fraction of this, what on earth is wrong with the field of virology? Like you I heard the three WHO delegates in this podcast say "we asked the WIV directors impolite questions" (Impolite!) The WIV officials assured us "nothing happened". We asked them to give us any evidence they may have and they said there is nothing. Our WHO delegates then conclude with "Science require evidence, our WIV colleagues did not provide us any evidence, we did all we could, case closed." (And the TwiV three nodded approvingly. Oh science!) But what do I know? Guess I must be biased? But cannot help that to me this sound strangely lame on the lab? *www.sciencemag.org/sites/default/files/Shi%20Zhengli%20Q%26A.pdf
You apparently didn't catch the talk about the genetic diversity expressed in samples at the point of the first reported human case. [FACEPALM] That genetic diversity is the result of previous circulation. Now you have to explain how a leak at some time in the past evolved in several different directions and then magically came back to the lab form the wild to get leaked again. Sure it could happen, but I could win the Lotto and the Publisher's Clearing House Sweepstakes at the same time too.... Nobody has shown any evidence that you are actually Elvis Presley, so what is the point of investigating that idea? Really.
@@Peter_S_ There are several plausible explanations for the "genetic diversity" you reference. The one you reference, that SARS-COV-2 was circulating for many more months than we know of in the human population without being detected would ordinarily be the simplest explanation. However, as of date there are some problems with this simplest hypothesis. 1) The backwards molecular clock work point to an emergence that could be earlier than December, but only by about a month (science.sciencemag.org/content/372/6540/412). 2) Virulence for SARS-COV-2 evolved even slower than transmissibility in the year+ we have data for. Moreover virulence tend to decrease as a virus spend time in its host. This makes a long period of undetected circulation unlikely given what we do know observationally about SARS-COV-2. 3) No evidence has been found yet for earlier circulation despite all the effort discussed in this interview, and with both methods and results of the extensive hunt for such evidence reviewed by the three guests in this interview. So, although undetected circulation in the human population for many months is ordinarily the simplest hypothesis that could account for the small genetic variation you reference, this hypothesis currently does have some problems. It can of course change if new evidence is found, but we can certainly not say it is the only explanation or a slam dunk. What is indeed very unlikely is your "lotto hypothesis" for how a lab leak scenario could be consistent with genetic diversity. But your lotto scenario is not the only way that the lab leak scenario could result in the observed genetic diversity. Let us assume there is a lab with a contract to generate a catalogue of viruses. The idea is that the viruses should consist of 'natural samples’ - collected and harvested around Asia, but then further diversity can be created using standard methods like recombination, and even limited site-directed mutagenesis and reverse genetic system work. In layman's terms, colonies of virus derived from natural samples are cultivated and 'cross-bread' precisely to achieve genetic diversity precisely because that is what our contract is for… our contract is to generate a catalogue of different viruses (you can think of it as “quasi-natural lab generated accelerated evolution”). We do this so we can study "form-function" relationships. That is, what changes that could result in bat and animal reservoir viruses could result in increased human cell transmissibility, viability and virulence. In fact, the motto of our grant proposal was "get ahead of nature". The next and final fact to keep in mind is that virtually no successful infection ever occur by just one virus. Some has estimated the minimum inoculum for SARS-COV-2 that possibly could make you sick to be about 100 viruses, and the average successful infection is likely the result of a much higher inoculum, on the order of 1 million virus particles. So, in our lab scenario we have a lab worker infected from a colony of viruses, with inoculum that could include roughly 1 million viruses (or more), in a study with the overt intention to generate colonies with genetic diversity (from which strains can be isolated later). What make this case so interesting is that in Wuhan there was exactly such a contract. There was exactly such a lab, and a research group using exactly the methods I described above. They have the world’s single most extensive library of both sequences, and isolates, of exactly the family of corona viruses that SARS-COV-2 belong to. This contract we are talking about, it so happens that around late 2019 it was just about 2 to 3 years into the work and the researchers reported that they were churning out a rich haul of new viruses many of which show impressive human infectivity (as proven with human cell lines and humanized mice). It is an interesting coincidence that Peter Daszak, the very man in the top left box in this interview, also reported about the noteworthy ‘successes of our contracted lab' in his first TWiV appearance December 2019. All this is just circumstantial... but it is very compelling.
I’m not a conspiracy theorist either. I generally disdain conspiracy theorists as well. I don’t think suspecting a lab leak should be considered a conspiracy theory. The only part I don’t agree with is your assessment of being 99% convinced that the virus leaked. I would surmise the probably is much higher.
Before the outbreak can be "substantial" it would have had to have been circulating for quite some time (considering a low initial RO, 80%+ mild case rate, likely high volume of asymptomatic or very mild transmission, high likely hood of misidentification as simple pneumonia/ARDS in the few initial severe cases and 14 to 21 day incubation period and possible origin in low population rural area leading to a very slow burn of transmission among relatively few individuals for a protracted period of time before reaching high population areas.. That's going to be borne out by simple logic and math. Prior to achieving enough cases to identify a pattern, you are likely to have had multiple 14 to 21 day incubation periods, which means this origin likely goes back months to pt zero, especially considering the first few infected were likely NOT "super - spreaders" necessarily.
The very high percentage of asymptomatic/very mild cases is what makes this virus so much worse than the first SARS, as that one had very little asymptomatic spread by comparison & much shorter incubation period which made it infinitely easier to track & isolate. It's wild how a virus with a significantly lower fatality rate turned out to be so much deadlier.
The mean incubation period of COVID-19 is 5-6 days, however this is not necessarily the same as the generation time. Based on the evolution of the pandemic in Europe, for example in Italy where we have some data about the first cases, it is unlikely that it could have gone unnoticed for months. Two months after the first documented case in Italy there was over 100 000 documented cases and over 12000 deaths, and for the first cases there was actually some contact tracing. Two months after the initial case (not counting a woman that initially self isolated after returning from Wuhan, then hospitalized) 2500 persons had died in Sweden. Even if the first documented cases were just part of a somewhat larger influx of mild cases these just sums up to a couple of weeks of growth. To get to months of unnoticed spread we really need to postulate a low rate of disease transmission (which is not the same as a low R0, even though they are somewhat related), a low volume of asymptomatic disease transmission etc. There are no known early clusters outside of Wuhan, which would be expected, though not strictly necessary, if the disease was spreading for months in another initial location.
@@erikp6614 1) Mean is not the same thing as range 2) In the US ...flash events resulted in surges noticed roughly two to three months after the events. (IE the George Floyd Riots were from May to April but the surge didn't happen until mid to late summer) If I infect 1.5 people it would be roughly 7-14 days until that 1.5 hits the peak of their symptoms and were at the highest bit of transmission.... then 7-14 more days before those 1.5 people each infect another 1.5...it is going to take A LONG TIME to see a pattern in sick patients from that. See. Dr. Daniel Griffins chart from TWIV that he is always sharing for a look at the viral life cycle. Symptom onset and the highest level of transmission is around the day 14 mark. There is virtually no transmission in the first 3 days. twitter.com/danielgriffinmd/status/1321867994029580288
@@Glowbetraveler Yes, I agree. But at the moment that is just speculations, however not totally unsubstantiated since it is what we would expect from a virus that crosses species barriers. However all we know is that suddenly there was a corona virus that was rather well adapted to infect humans (see mutation studies and effect on spike protein binding). By the way the spike protein of SARS-CoV-2 is in key parts rather similar to a corona virus found in pengolins (I believe it was) - however the viruses were not overall that similar. Thus it is possible there was months of adaptations and spreading before the pandemic started, but we can't say "that is what happened" since at the moment we have no evidence of it happening, and there is certainly no evidence of the current SARS-CoV-2 circulating for months before the pandemic started. However one can always argue that, at least in many European countries, there was a rather obvious dip in transmission during the summer when the virus persisted in the population but with lower rates of transmission.
Also, their point that other betacoronaviruses also have furin cleavage sites is misleading. While it is true that SARS-CoV2 is not the only betacoronavirus with a furin cleavage site, it is the only known sarbecovirus that has a furin cleavage site. Sarbecoviruses are a subgenus of betacoronaviruses.
That's an amazing screen of people, it's amazing how you fit all of those cover-up artists on one screen. Oh, because the directive was to only look at the natural origins, we had no spine and said this isn't right. It's truly sad you come on here and won't directly say it.
Dr. David Martin has produced compelling evidence suggesting that EcoHealth Alliance President Peter Daszak has been planning to generate tons of money for Big Pharma investors through Wuhan coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccines since 2015.
The insertion sequence encoding the furin cleavage site is likely the result of copy-choice recombination in animal hosts, a pretty common occurrence in coronaviruses, and has been observed in other viruses (including coronaviruses like HKU-9). The evidence for this comes from a bioinformatic analysis by William Gallaher (source 1). As a note to those outside the field, the term "insertion sequence" or "insert" doesn't mean someone artificially put it there; an "insertion" just means that there are additional nucleotides where there weren't originally, which occurs all the time by many different mechanisms (recombination, polymerase stuttering, cell DNA repair error, etc.). Sources: 1. link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00705-020-04750-z
Common, maybe, but it's the ONLY multi-nucleotide insertion difference between RATG13 and SARS-CoV-2. One would presume such a recombination would occur with a virus that had this sequence in a host (like humans) particularly suceptable to it.
@@cathyf.1234 yes, exactly. It's not like peer reviewed papers describing exactly what they did and planned to do weren't published in black and white for decade(s). SARS2 is not "like" their research, it's exactly the intended result of their research. The wild implausible coincidence is that such a coronavirus also emerged spontaneously from nature.
Excellent session. Elucidating. The lineage difference between SARS-CoV-2 and RaTG13 is 4% out of a 30,000 base genome which is more that the difference between apes and humans. Cathy has clinched it!
Dr. David Martin has produced compelling evidence suggesting that EcoHealth Alliance President Peter Daszak has been planning to generate tons of money for Big Pharma investors through Wuhan coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccines since 2015.
Dr. David Martin has produced compelling evidence suggesting that EcoHealth Alliance President Peter Daszak has been planning to generate tons of money for Big Pharma investors through Wuhan coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccines since 2015.
Another very interesting interview, highly qualified scientists in charge of tracking the origin of SarvsCov2. Thanks, TWIV team, hope people pay more attention to the scientific facts instead of conspiracy theories.
Dr. David Martin has produced compelling evidence suggesting that EcoHealth Alliance President Peter Daszak has been planning to generate tons of money for Big Pharma investors through Wuhan coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccines since 2015.
Please search 'An open debate on SARS-CoV-2's proximal origin is long overdue' and address the paper. You asked to bring something to look over, please look at this.
Asymptomatic transmission: later outbreaks in Xi'an & Shanghai had universal testing regularly. Early on in those outbreaks asymptomatics/presymptomatics outnumbered symptomatics 10x. TEN TIMES. So finding an index case is pretty much impossible and transmission elsewhere & internationally is pretty much guaranteed!
I think, there is spontaneous evolution of slightly different variants of strains happening throughout the world simultaneously and lineage causing local spread. Because of the time paradox that causes constraints in sensor technology, we may not have précised reports on genome sequencing to identify these differences. Thus, until we have updated genomic sequencing technology, we may have to focus fully on clinical manifestation of the disease by selectively identifying the patients with genomics sequencing and other parameters for variations in disease manifestations. For this, rapid increase of digital healthcare infrastructure for the real-time assessments on the manifestations and prognosis of the disease with various individuals; along with other adequate investigative supports to correlate genomic sequencing, is essential to identify and to control new harmful viral mutations.
Dr. David Martin has produced compelling evidence suggesting that EcoHealth Alliance President Peter Daszak has been planning to generate tons of money for Big Pharma investors through Wuhan coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccines since 2015.
11 March 2022 11:20:09 UTC..........Is the UNSC going to ask all countries to list all pathogenic profiles of the bioweapons developed, in development ?
IMO, defining the origin of the virus will depend upon the time frame. Last year, U.S. research pushed back the time of arrival of SARS-CoV-2 in this country by a couple months. Italy fortunately had blood samples from September 2019 and found the virus in those samples. How much farther back is the actual beginning of distribution of this virus. I am only a journalist/researcher but anecdotally, there have been repeated outbreaks since at least 2017, of damaging "unknown virus" in my geographic area. These illnesses did much of what is found in COVID though probably the death rate was not as high. (Where I am from, some of these outbreaks seemed to kill a lot of elderly patients but doctors said, "that is to be expected.") When SARSCo-V-2 was officially here, a number of us got sick and out doctors say we had COVID. We were mildly ill, regardless of age and comorbidities. We had also been repeatedly ravaged by the other outbreaks. I am extremely interested to learn if SARSCo-V-2 was around, say in 2017, in a milder form and if the deadly pandemic was a lethal variant? If most doctors in clinical practice work like doctors where I used to live, IMO it is highly likely that a novel virus could slip right through. The elderly are expected to die sooner rather than later. Patients who are damaged, some permanently, can be written off as malingerers, psychiatric cases or they can be blamed for their personal habits, depending upon the social slant doctors choose to apply. I have been suggesting that when outbreaks of devastating "unknown virus" appear and are recognized as something unusual by doctors in practice, biological samples MUST be harvested and stored. Before COVID, researchers have told me this is a great idea but it will never be done for a variety of reasons. Maybe now, value will be seen in this suggestion. Doctors in the filth and horrors of WWI trench warfare did as much during the 1918 influenza pandemic!
Dr. David Martin has produced compelling evidence suggesting that EcoHealth Alliance President Peter Daszak has been planning to generate tons of money for Big Pharma investors through Wuhan coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccines since 2015.
Wow, I can't say enough about how enlightening this was. I am in Brazil trying to explain about the US lab-leak claim and how bogus it is. Then all the questions answered a year ago are coming back as well. I don't feel and want to explain it again. Most of my blogs start with: "As I explained in August of last year....blah, blah, blah.
Would you like a redo or an edit on this comment? Look at all these people mocking anyone for the lab leak theory which is now proven in 2023. Hahahahah. Big fat I told you so from me.
Dr. David Martin has produced compelling evidence suggesting that EcoHealth Alliance President Peter Daszak has been planning to generate tons of money for Big Pharma investors through Wuhan coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccines since 2015.
11 March 2022 18:00 UTC.....Its funny . The Pentagon was unable to stop covid-19 given the wealth of intel it was sitting on and was in possession of ?
I'm an Advanced Practice Nurse with 30+ years of medical experience yet I struggle to educate my own family members with regards to SARSCOV2. Several of them are dedicated Trump followers who believe in the politics and not the science though they don't view it that way.
Thank you for having them speak…..not sure why there is more talk about this from the political side Smoke and mirrors but i am sure it will become clear…..in time🇨🇦
So good to hear the real science! Truth is the antidote to political propaganda. It is hard to imagine more important work than that of the EcoHealth Alliance! Bravo to all 3 guests for doing this important work.
Dr. David Martin has produced compelling evidence suggesting that EcoHealth Alliance President Peter Daszak has been planning to generate tons of money for Big Pharma investors through Wuhan coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccines since 2015.
@@danpotterf9175 In my lifetime I have learned to allows follow the money, as it is always the foundation which endless profits can be built. Take a look into the recent UNC Chapel Hill lab incident. The victim and alleged perpetrator both have ties to the Wuhan University and ties with much more. That is a whole new rabbit hole to dive into. Best of luck in these unprecedented times. I wouldn't want to be anyone of these people or anyone tied to this madness. Plausible deniability can only go so far.
Belated, but this was really interesting to watch as someone who knows very little about viruses - it's neat hearing samples of the thought process that goes into tracing origins of epidemics.
Dr. David Martin has produced compelling evidence suggesting that EcoHealth Alliance President Peter Daszak has been planning to generate tons of money for Big Pharma investors through Wuhan coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccines since 2015.
But on balance. I think there are enough "local good people" and I use the method of Occam's razor. So I weigh it all up. Yes, still remember my biology. Still know about the various pandemics in the past and the polio thing -- we got the drink. My children were vaccinated. I am going tomorrow to get the first shot. I had the flu shot several years here in NZ, I want to get this Pfizer, I'm 73. I'm pretty certain that the probabilities favour me (!) I think I will still be alive a bit longer. Being practical I think that the NZ Govt. is too un-cautious; we needed to stay locked down until more were vaccinated. But I will get both as I understand how it works, on balance I dont think the Bad guys are out to get me, as my son does. But I have met a lot of people who do believe this, also many who believe the earth is flat -- or, the know the earth is flat. The world is not as simple as doing tests in a laboratory and expecting say all the mad Trumpers to go away...because, in deep sense, they have a kind of point.....But like Kiekegaard I will take a leap of faith. I like the model of the mRNA vaccine. Sometimes what I like about science is the inherent poetry in the logic or the way things happen. So I am going to experience something, even if I die -- which I doubt. But death comes and e.g. an anaphylactic shock, severe, if fatal would probably be a quick way to die. But I doubt that will happen. I will just go and get my injection.
While I most certainly hope you don’t get an anaphylactic shock situation, I’m sure there will be medical personnel waiting with a shot to fix you right up. May you enjoy a long and healthy life!
@@bobedgar6647 I went to a Maori Marae in South Auckland (my son was distraught as I said he believes that vaccines are part of a plot to kill people etc this comes from his terrible bullying experienced at school and later getting his eye knocked out by the police and so on as well as his (and earlier my) protests against NZ and other nations military involvement and a real fear of Governments and the fact that, indeed, most of the major nations make weapons including bio-war weapons....); but my own view is that on balance we go with at least some belief that most people are "good". Analyzing everything in philosophic terms -- even scientific doesn't persuade -- so a kind of punt called "common sense" is taken. (But remember many people go and get a vaccine with no idea of what is happening, the person who I came out with was convinced it had come from China -- they watch these short bursts of news -- most people don't have any idea -- this doesn't mean they are stupid, it is simply that their lives have led in different ways than say, that of an educated Liberal, as against some very educated right wingers and others -- but people vary everywhere. In my own case I understand the mechanisms pretty well but going to the place it was 1) very well, amazingly well, organized by Maori and Pacific Island people and also some Europeans (Pakeha or Palangi) 2) I had an eerie sense that I was in 1944 or something being herded kindly toward the gas chambers 3) I wanted to get the vaccine (Pfizer) as I wanted to play chess toward the end of the year and I am 73 so as I am not allergic to flu shots... So I got my first shot. I had no significant ill-effects. Later my son pointed to a thing on UA-cam about some people getting severe neurological disorders from Astra-Zenica. He wont get any vaccines. He simply doesn't not trust any Government. Nevertheless we get on o.k. My next shot is in about 4 weeks time. They had people and adrenalin etc ready for anaphylactic reactions. It was well organised. The whole roll out is a bit slow but they are doing now older people and those with disabilities etc. I think though that the Government should have kept us still basically separate from Australia (where there has been a break out of Covid so they are locked down in Melbourne). Australia is a would be United States and is sort gung ho, they didn't recognize native Australians as human beings until the mid 70s, and tried to exterminate them....Or some did....They are pressuring NZ to move away from China but we do as much trade with China as Australia. We need to keep independent, we don't need Australia.
@@Shelmerdine745 My son still refuses to get a vaccine he thinks only cowards get those and that there is a plot by the Illuminati etc. I have a diff. view. I agree that Big Money do a lot of bad things but I feel that the motivation is to make money and keep doing so. My son, who is 49, believes they are out to kill millions of people by putting a substance in the vaccine. His distrust is understandable if you know the political history of the world and they way various nations have misused science over time etc. But I take the view that, on balance, they wont do that, the big vaccine and medical manufacturers etc are wanting to make money not kill millions of people etc but if someone believes otherwise that is what they believe. But I got my first shot. I had no bad reactions but of course I have another one in 30 days. The place I went to was well organised -- by mostly Maori and Polynesian staff, being in South Auckland. It was very good logistically, at this stage dealing with people over 60 and those with disabilities. Next I think will come the others. But the Prime Minister is not vaccinated as she believes she should wait like everyone else. She, of course, is much younger than we all were....Re Common Sense, that is de facto what Hume advocated in the absence of any way of being really able to do deductive logic with any certainty (given a problem requiring absolute justification). Popper quoted his "the sun may not rise tomorrow" and this was the death knell for the logical positivists.....Changing the subject, I asked a doctor if there were any monoclonal anti bodies ready to be used in NZ and he said no, there were not, no such thing in NZ. Sure we had few deaths but we are not as well prepared as we could be. Also the borders need to remain closed while we get much more vaccinated (except those who don't want to be and others)....
@@quagapp the Colonial Period was terrible and disgusting in many ways and in many places. I think of it as a phase in human moral development, which sounds nice but doesn’t help those that suffered through it. I note explicitly that the period has not yet fully ended but that I think all can agree that we, collectively, are making progress. I just returned from having my second dose of Biontech/Pfizer stuck in my left arm. I’m hoping to avoid the symptoms that frequently accompany the second dose but will happily accept them because I fully expect that Covid-19 would have been my end. I wish you good health and good luck with yours and especially that your son comes along for the ride too. Perhaps he will grow to accept that the dangers he perceives are not so real with time.
@@bobedgar6647 Hi Bob. He was bullyed at school, lost his eye to a police baton after a suicide attempt. He is better than he was but he has lost trust in people. However he started writing poetry last year and is doing well in that way. His schooling was interrupted by the bullying at school. But he decided he wanted to learn more about writing and literature. I have been helping him as I am a writer but I also studied all kinds of subjects. Now he wants to get into University. He just finished a New Start which was hard for him as he has (more or less) for years just played internet games. He has improved but arguing is no good. If someone believes or doesn't believe in something they are part way into knowing something. Many people, for various reasons, stop at belief. And belief or acceptance of something you wish to know is needed to know, and it is a complex mental process. Nor is it irrational to have theories. What is problematic is to hold to such things as being known without testing them. But simply believing is how people become religious. There is also a social aspect to knowledge. How is it communicated? These questions are complex. Nevertheless I myself take the path that the probabilities of there being a plot is low, all things considered. So Occam's razor is used. But some people simply for a view and that is that. I don't necessarily see technology and science as helping humans "progress" I think the concept of Progress is illusory. It is an abstraction and therefore impossible to prove in any way. We can measure some "progresses" but these aren't shown in the world very clearly. Statistics might show medical advances, but we still are faced with, say, huge mental health issues and issues of pollution, and economic and political differentials. Colonialization my forbears were part of, my grand mother born in India. My father is I think of part or maybe totally Jewish extraction from London, but he left England about 1927. He then had a dispute with his father and never talked to him. But re colonialization NZ is really a two nation place now with an increasing number of Asian people. I was talking to a tech doing fibre optic and he was from Kazakhstan. But many are from India, China, Cambodia, Vietnam etc etc. The US is also multi ethnic based. As to the vaccine as a parent I always got my children vaccinated and I get them. I now have 28 days to get my second. Nevertheless: "I grow old, I grow old /Should I wear my trousers rolled".....
Very interesting to hear that China shut down so many fresh wet markets across a wide area, and so decisively + so quickly. The figures he cited about how many people lost the jobs, the scale of that food business. Astonishing. Such a pity we have not and do not ongoing reporting. Those market say so much. Would be great sometime to see /read/hear serious documentary about that. Including the scope of origins and bats and wet market live animal markets across southeast Asia. Most people who have not travelled there cannot really imagine those markets. The past 25 years have so transformative across pacific rim. thanks Twiv & your guests
I heard the story of the Triffids on the radio (later the TV thing was no good in comparison), but the Day of the Triffids was fascinating, frightening. I have 3000 books including Wyndham, a mate recommended the books. H.G. Wells 'The Time Machine is Great', but also Russell Hoban's book Ridley Walker is great. More or less neglected writers... Re under water I read Jaques Cousteau's book The Silent World and his experiments with octopi and trying hand-grenades etc. But UA-cams about octopi are fascinating they are strange but beautiful things.
Am I wrong or have natives and aborigines been eating and handling bats🤔 for hundreds and hundreds of years WITHOUT a major coronavirus outbreak??? ... Don't misunderstand me I don't condone eating or handling bats! Coronavirus is not the only danger, there is of course rabies and possibly Ebola if you are in Africa, but think about it....
outbrakes in the past were naturally ending at smaller scale as people (groups) didn't live in close proximity and didn't travel like we do. all of our animal food have (some) risks
The Sequence Diversity in Early samples suggested that "Strains" common in Northern Italy and Washington State USA were older than the predominant "Strain" in Wuhan.
@@Shelmerdine745 that why I put "strains" in quotation marks. It seems clear that China handled the outbreak in Wuhan in a rapid and exemplary manner - and given the much more widespread community transmission in Italy Spain and the USA that must have been taking place in late late 2019 undetected - an origin of SARS CoV 2 is more likely outside of China.
@@Shelmerdine745 yep the PNAS A - B & C stuff was back in April last year - i thought this November 2020 Serological Study interesting and its implications under reported academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciaa1785/6012472
![Lp. Сердце Вселенной #60 РОЖДЕНИЕ ЛОЛОЛОШКИ [Финал] • Майнкрафт](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/YoR0pAV9FVQ/mqdefault.jpg)
This hasn't aged well. Knowing what we know now...are we now addressing the loss of public trust?
"When you mix Politics with Science, you get Politics"
excellent!
@@flipjetiel7343 LOL ! Parasites are fascinating .
@@JasonCunliffe what a joke of themselves
@ fear if you had a brain ?
Peter Daszak and his collaborators seem less than forthcoming, why, why, why?
Because he's a liar?
The girl in glasses is not forthcoming
None of them are.
This is one of the best shows on UA-cam!
11 March 2022 11:18:54........What is the pathogenic profile of the 336 biolabs in 30 countries ?
I am someone who has complete disdain for conspiracy theories, but I have to say that this was a very unsatisfactory interview. "Nobody showed us any evidence for an accidental release, so what is the point of investigating that idea?" Really?? And absolutely no information was presented in the interview or in the WHO report about which live viruses were being kept in these research labs. I'm 99% convinced no lab accident was involved, but not providing even the most basic information which live viruses were being studied in the lab, how they were handled, etc. just feeds into the conspiracy theorists.
Agree.
I agree.
For the sake of all of those affected, including many in China, cooperation like the following would be eminently reasonable and in the interest of all humanity: 1) The sharing with the WHO and an international committee of independent scientists all existing corona virus sequences generated at WIV, the Wuhan CDC and the universities in Wuhan over the last 10 years (this include those in the now hidden database and some that were not yet deposited there), 2) lab records of all isolated (live) corona virus experiments the last 5 years, in particular cell passaging and humanized mouse work, 3) records of all 'reverse genetic* constructs (synthetic corona viruses) if any.
Such cooperation is not putative. As far as 1 and 2 is concerned, the WIV director has freely shared that such work was conducted*. She expressed the reasonable rational human desire to either find the origin if it is from one of the several Wuhan labs spanning BSL 1 to BSL 4, or thoroughly clear the labs. There is no suspicion of malice. The worst case scenario is that there was an accident.
Whenever we have a disaster like an airplane crash, something that affects a vastly smaller number of people than this, we turn every stone. We open every relevant record and logbook. When we have a chemical plant or refinery explosion even the Exxon's and BP's of the world open whatever record and data is necessary to get to the root cause. If the oil industry can do it when the victims and impact is a fraction of this, what on earth is wrong with the field of virology?
Like you I heard the three WHO delegates in this podcast say "we asked the WIV directors impolite questions" (Impolite!) The WIV officials assured us "nothing happened". We asked them to give us any evidence they may have and they said there is nothing. Our WHO delegates then conclude with "Science require evidence, our WIV colleagues did not provide us any evidence, we did all we could, case closed." (And the TwiV three nodded approvingly. Oh science!) But what do I know? Guess I must be biased? But cannot help that to me this sound strangely lame on the lab?
*www.sciencemag.org/sites/default/files/Shi%20Zhengli%20Q%26A.pdf
You apparently didn't catch the talk about the genetic diversity expressed in samples at the point of the first reported human case. [FACEPALM] That genetic diversity is the result of previous circulation. Now you have to explain how a leak at some time in the past evolved in several different directions and then magically came back to the lab form the wild to get leaked again. Sure it could happen, but I could win the Lotto and the Publisher's Clearing House Sweepstakes at the same time too.... Nobody has shown any evidence that you are actually Elvis Presley, so what is the point of investigating that idea? Really.
@@Peter_S_ There are several plausible explanations for the "genetic diversity" you reference. The one you reference, that SARS-COV-2 was circulating for many more months than we know of in the human population without being detected would ordinarily be the simplest explanation. However, as of date there are some problems with this simplest hypothesis.
1) The backwards molecular clock work point to an emergence that could be earlier than December, but only by about a month (science.sciencemag.org/content/372/6540/412).
2) Virulence for SARS-COV-2 evolved even slower than transmissibility in the year+ we have data for. Moreover virulence tend to decrease as a virus spend time in its host. This makes a long period of undetected circulation unlikely given what we do know observationally about SARS-COV-2.
3) No evidence has been found yet for earlier circulation despite all the effort discussed in this interview, and with both methods and results of the extensive hunt for such evidence reviewed by the three guests in this interview.
So, although undetected circulation in the human population for many months is ordinarily the simplest hypothesis that could account for the small genetic variation you reference, this hypothesis currently does have some problems. It can of course change if new evidence is found, but we can certainly not say it is the only explanation or a slam dunk.
What is indeed very unlikely is your "lotto hypothesis" for how a lab leak scenario could be consistent with genetic diversity. But your lotto scenario is not the only way that the lab leak scenario could result in the observed genetic diversity.
Let us assume there is a lab with a contract to generate a catalogue of viruses. The idea is that the viruses should consist of 'natural samples’ - collected and harvested around Asia, but then further diversity can be created using standard methods like recombination, and even limited site-directed mutagenesis and reverse genetic system work. In layman's terms, colonies of virus derived from natural samples are cultivated and 'cross-bread' precisely to achieve genetic diversity precisely because that is what our contract is for… our contract is to generate a catalogue of different viruses (you can think of it as “quasi-natural lab generated accelerated evolution”). We do this so we can study "form-function" relationships. That is, what changes that could result in bat and animal reservoir viruses could result in increased human cell transmissibility, viability and virulence. In fact, the motto of our grant proposal was "get ahead of nature".
The next and final fact to keep in mind is that virtually no successful infection ever occur by just one virus. Some has estimated the minimum inoculum for SARS-COV-2 that possibly could make you sick to be about 100 viruses, and the average successful infection is likely the result of a much higher inoculum, on the order of 1 million virus particles. So, in our lab scenario we have a lab worker infected from a colony of viruses, with inoculum that could include roughly 1 million viruses (or more), in a study with the overt intention to generate colonies with genetic diversity (from which strains can be isolated later). What make this case so interesting is that in Wuhan there was exactly such a contract. There was exactly such a lab, and a research group using exactly the methods I described above. They have the world’s single most extensive library of both sequences, and isolates, of exactly the family of corona viruses that SARS-COV-2 belong to.
This contract we are talking about, it so happens that around late 2019 it was just about 2 to 3 years into the work and the researchers reported that they were churning out a rich haul of new viruses many of which show impressive human infectivity (as proven with human cell lines and humanized mice). It is an interesting coincidence that Peter Daszak, the very man in the top left box in this interview, also reported about the noteworthy ‘successes of our contracted lab' in his first TWiV appearance December 2019.
All this is just circumstantial... but it is very compelling.
I’m not a conspiracy theorist either. I generally disdain conspiracy theorists as well. I don’t think suspecting a lab leak should be considered a conspiracy theory. The only part I don’t agree with is your assessment of being 99% convinced that the virus leaked. I would surmise the probably is much higher.
Peter ballsack created it and tried covering it up
Yup... Whats funny is in episode 615 of this show he explains how they are doing it.
Before the outbreak can be "substantial" it would have had to have been circulating for quite some time (considering a low initial RO, 80%+ mild case rate, likely high volume of asymptomatic or very mild transmission, high likely hood of misidentification as simple pneumonia/ARDS in the few initial severe cases and 14 to 21 day incubation period and possible origin in low population rural area leading to a very slow burn of transmission among relatively few individuals for a protracted period of time before reaching high population areas.. That's going to be borne out by simple logic and math. Prior to achieving enough cases to identify a pattern, you are likely to have had multiple 14 to 21 day incubation periods, which means this origin likely goes back months to pt zero, especially considering the first few infected were likely NOT "super - spreaders" necessarily.
The very high percentage of asymptomatic/very mild cases is what makes this virus so much worse than the first SARS, as that one had very little asymptomatic spread by comparison & much shorter incubation period which made it infinitely easier to track & isolate. It's wild how a virus with a significantly lower fatality rate turned out to be so much deadlier.
Yes 👍
The mean incubation period of COVID-19 is 5-6 days, however this is not necessarily the same as the generation time. Based on the evolution of the pandemic in Europe, for example in Italy where we have some data about the first cases, it is unlikely that it could have gone unnoticed for months. Two months after the first documented case in Italy there was over 100 000 documented cases and over 12000 deaths, and for the first cases there was actually some contact tracing. Two months after the initial case (not counting a woman that initially self isolated after returning from Wuhan, then hospitalized) 2500 persons had died in Sweden. Even if the first documented cases were just part of a somewhat larger influx of mild cases these just sums up to a couple of weeks of growth. To get to months of unnoticed spread we really need to postulate a low rate of disease transmission (which is not the same as a low R0, even though they are somewhat related), a low volume of asymptomatic disease transmission etc. There are no known early clusters outside of Wuhan, which would be expected, though not strictly necessary, if the disease was spreading for months in another initial location.
@@erikp6614 1) Mean is not the same thing as range 2) In the US ...flash events resulted in surges noticed roughly two to three months after the events. (IE the George Floyd Riots were from May to April but the surge didn't happen until mid to late summer) If I infect 1.5 people it would be roughly 7-14 days until that 1.5 hits the peak of their symptoms and were at the highest bit of transmission.... then 7-14 more days before those 1.5 people each infect another 1.5...it is going to take A LONG TIME to see a pattern in sick patients from that. See. Dr. Daniel Griffins chart from TWIV that he is always sharing for a look at the viral life cycle. Symptom onset and the highest level of transmission is around the day 14 mark. There is virtually no transmission in the first 3 days. twitter.com/danielgriffinmd/status/1321867994029580288
@@Glowbetraveler Yes, I agree. But at the moment that is just speculations, however not totally unsubstantiated since it is what we would expect from a virus that crosses species barriers. However all we know is that suddenly there was a corona virus that was rather well adapted to infect humans (see mutation studies and effect on spike protein binding). By the way the spike protein of SARS-CoV-2 is in key parts rather similar to a corona virus found in pengolins (I believe it was) - however the viruses were not overall that similar. Thus it is possible there was months of adaptations and spreading before the pandemic started, but we can't say "that is what happened" since at the moment we have no evidence of it happening, and there is certainly no evidence of the current SARS-CoV-2 circulating for months before the pandemic started. However one can always argue that, at least in many European countries, there was a rather obvious dip in transmission during the summer when the virus persisted in the population but with lower rates of transmission.
Most excellent. Thank you to each of you, regulars and guests alike.
Thank you all for this very interesting discussion!
Also, their point that other betacoronaviruses also have furin cleavage sites is misleading. While it is true that SARS-CoV2 is not the only betacoronavirus with a furin cleavage site, it is the only known sarbecovirus that has a furin cleavage site. Sarbecoviruses are a subgenus of betacoronaviruses.
That's an amazing screen of people, it's amazing how you fit all of those cover-up artists on one screen. Oh, because the directive was to only look at the natural origins, we had no spine and said this isn't right. It's truly sad you come on here and won't directly say it.
Thank you, Vincent, for giving us the opportunity to listen to this intelligent and fascinating discussion on the origins of SARS-COV2.
Dr. David Martin has produced compelling evidence suggesting that EcoHealth Alliance President Peter Daszak has been planning to generate tons of money for Big Pharma investors through Wuhan coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccines since 2015.
An interview with the man who helped create the virus, yes
1:12:00 codon, furin cleave site, you mean the twelve nucleotide polybasic insertion? So, what's the rebuttal?
I would also be interested in this.
The insertion sequence encoding the furin cleavage site is likely the result of copy-choice recombination in animal hosts, a pretty common occurrence in coronaviruses, and has been observed in other viruses (including coronaviruses like HKU-9). The evidence for this comes from a bioinformatic analysis by William Gallaher (source 1). As a note to those outside the field, the term "insertion sequence" or "insert" doesn't mean someone artificially put it there; an "insertion" just means that there are additional nucleotides where there weren't originally, which occurs all the time by many different mechanisms (recombination, polymerase stuttering, cell DNA repair error, etc.).
Sources:
1. link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00705-020-04750-z
Common, maybe, but it's the ONLY multi-nucleotide insertion difference between RATG13 and SARS-CoV-2. One would presume such a recombination would occur with a virus that had this sequence in a host (like humans) particularly suceptable to it.
@@vegahimsa3057 Or maybe in humanized mice?
@@cathyf.1234 yes, exactly. It's not like peer reviewed papers describing exactly what they did and planned to do weren't published in black and white for decade(s). SARS2 is not "like" their research, it's exactly the intended result of their research. The wild implausible coincidence is that such a coronavirus also emerged spontaneously from nature.
Excellent session. Elucidating. The lineage difference between SARS-CoV-2 and RaTG13 is 4% out of a 30,000 base genome which is more that the difference between apes and humans. Cathy has clinched it!
Dr. David Martin has produced compelling evidence suggesting that EcoHealth Alliance President Peter Daszak has been planning to generate tons of money for Big Pharma investors through Wuhan coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccines since 2015.
Great discussion!
What an important public service! Thank you so much for all you do! ♥️ TWIV
Dr. David Martin has produced compelling evidence suggesting that EcoHealth Alliance President Peter Daszak has been planning to generate tons of money for Big Pharma investors through Wuhan coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccines since 2015.
Another very interesting interview, highly qualified scientists in charge of tracking the origin of SarvsCov2. Thanks, TWIV team, hope people pay more attention to the scientific facts instead of conspiracy theories.
Dr. David Martin has produced compelling evidence suggesting that EcoHealth Alliance President Peter Daszak has been planning to generate tons of money for Big Pharma investors through Wuhan coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccines since 2015.
WOW! WHO in person(s) ...thank you for your amazing Gets.
50:00 re the elephant in the room ...
Thanks for a great TWiV with insightful members of WHO team.
Please search 'An open debate on SARS-CoV-2's proximal origin is long overdue' and address the paper. You asked to bring something to look over, please look at this.
@@heckler73 Yes thats the one 👍
virological.org/t/early-appearance-of-two-distinct-genomic-lineages-of-sars-cov-2-in-different-wuhan-wildlife-markets-suggests-sars-cov-2-has-a-natural-origin/691
Referencing Anderson and Lipkin......
🤦
Asymptomatic transmission: later outbreaks in Xi'an & Shanghai had universal testing regularly. Early on in those outbreaks asymptomatics/presymptomatics outnumbered symptomatics 10x. TEN TIMES. So finding an index case is pretty much impossible and transmission elsewhere & internationally is pretty much guaranteed!
Thank you. very needed
I was present to hear this discussion. Thanks to our TWIV team here. 🏆
I think, there is spontaneous evolution of slightly different variants of strains happening throughout the world simultaneously and lineage causing local spread. Because of the time paradox that causes constraints in sensor technology, we may not have précised reports on genome sequencing to identify these differences. Thus, until we have updated genomic sequencing technology, we may have to focus fully on clinical manifestation of the disease by selectively identifying the patients with genomics sequencing and other parameters for variations in disease manifestations.
For this, rapid increase of digital healthcare infrastructure for the real-time assessments on the manifestations and prognosis of the disease with various individuals; along with other adequate investigative supports to correlate genomic sequencing, is essential to identify and to control new harmful viral mutations.
Dr. David Martin has produced compelling evidence suggesting that EcoHealth Alliance President Peter Daszak has been planning to generate tons of money for Big Pharma investors through Wuhan coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccines since 2015.
Such an informative discussion! Thank you!
11 March 2022 11:20:09 UTC..........Is the UNSC going to ask all countries to list all pathogenic profiles of the bioweapons developed, in development ?
Can anyone provide time stamps of any relevant questions?
TY, shared.
So, Where’s Phase 2?
Dr Stefan Lanka, Dr Claus Kohnlein
IMO, defining the origin of the virus will depend upon the time frame. Last year, U.S. research pushed back the time of arrival of SARS-CoV-2 in this country by a couple months. Italy fortunately had blood samples from September 2019 and found the virus in those samples. How much farther back is the actual beginning of distribution of this virus.
I am only a journalist/researcher but anecdotally, there have been repeated outbreaks since at least 2017, of damaging "unknown virus" in my geographic area. These illnesses did much of what is found in COVID though probably the death rate was not as high. (Where I am from, some of these outbreaks seemed to kill a lot of elderly patients but doctors said, "that is to be expected.")
When SARSCo-V-2 was officially here, a number of us got sick and out doctors say we had COVID. We were mildly ill, regardless of age and comorbidities. We had also been repeatedly ravaged by the other outbreaks. I am extremely interested to learn if SARSCo-V-2 was around, say in 2017, in a milder form and if the deadly pandemic was a lethal variant?
If most doctors in clinical practice work like doctors where I used to live, IMO it is highly likely that a novel virus could slip right through. The elderly are expected to die sooner rather than later. Patients who are damaged, some permanently, can be written off as malingerers, psychiatric cases or they can be blamed for their personal habits, depending upon the social slant doctors choose to apply.
I have been suggesting that when outbreaks of devastating "unknown virus" appear and are recognized as something unusual by doctors in practice, biological samples MUST be harvested and stored. Before COVID, researchers have told me this is a great idea but it will never be done for a variety of reasons. Maybe now, value will be seen in this suggestion. Doctors in the filth and horrors of WWI trench warfare did as much during the 1918 influenza pandemic!
Dr. David Martin has produced compelling evidence suggesting that EcoHealth Alliance President Peter Daszak has been planning to generate tons of money for Big Pharma investors through Wuhan coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccines since 2015.
Wow, I can't say enough about how enlightening this was. I am in Brazil trying to explain about the US lab-leak claim and how bogus it is. Then all the questions answered a year ago are coming back as well. I don't feel and want to explain it again. Most of my blogs start with: "As I explained in August of last year....blah, blah, blah.
@@johnfarmer3506 Listen until the end
What changed?
Would you like a redo or an edit on this comment? Look at all these people mocking anyone for the lab leak theory which is now proven in 2023. Hahahahah. Big fat I told you so from me.
Dr. David Martin has produced compelling evidence suggesting that EcoHealth Alliance President Peter Daszak has been planning to generate tons of money for Big Pharma investors through Wuhan coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccines since 2015.
Another stellar contribution to sanity and enlightenment. Thanks for all you do!
Fantastic, Marion when do you go back to China to see what really happend? All the best.
Thank you so very much!!!!!! Excellent discussion and have passed the info on so as to correct the Wade article!
Thanks for the really, really good discussion!
11 March 2022 18:00 UTC.....Its funny . The Pentagon was unable to stop covid-19 given the wealth of intel it was sitting on and was in possession of ?
1:10:50... "Any writers that are listening to this..." Just so! Thanks so much, V.R. et al.
At TWiV 659 virologist Christian Drosten say at min 29, that SARS COV2 better replicate at 34 C
Christian Drosten
If a virus replicate at 34C IT is a,,t.s,, variant
Termosezitive variants can retromutate
Fever mittigate infection with termosensivity variants
Thank you, fascinating discussion
I'm an Advanced Practice Nurse with 30+ years of medical experience yet I struggle to educate my own family members with regards to SARSCOV2. Several of them are dedicated Trump followers who believe in the politics and not the science though they don't view it that way.
This was great..
I feel sorry for Daszak. Poor thing, he's trying so hard.
Thank you for having them speak…..not sure why there is more talk about this from the political side Smoke and mirrors but i am sure it will become clear…..in time🇨🇦
Great information directly from the source. Very informative. Thanks for a very good episode.
Awesome commentary. Thank you so much for pulling this great team together.
So good to hear the real science! Truth is the antidote to political propaganda. It is hard to imagine more important work than that of the EcoHealth Alliance! Bravo to all 3 guests for doing this important work.
This post has not aged well.
Dr. David Martin has produced compelling evidence suggesting that EcoHealth Alliance President Peter Daszak has been planning to generate tons of money for Big Pharma investors through Wuhan coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccines since 2015.
@@danpotterf9175 In my lifetime I have learned to allows follow the money, as it is always the foundation which endless profits can be built. Take a look into the recent UNC Chapel Hill lab incident. The victim and alleged perpetrator both have ties to the Wuhan University and ties with much more. That is a whole new rabbit hole to dive into. Best of luck in these unprecedented times. I wouldn't want to be anyone of these people or anyone tied to this madness. Plausible deniability can only go so far.
Thank you so much for having this open discussion. I really appreciate it. Keep doing great science!
Those books were on the reading list in school when i was young…..love the books along with Lord of the Flies…another interesting read🇨🇦
Belated, but this was really interesting to watch as someone who knows very little about viruses - it's neat hearing samples of the thought process that goes into tracing origins of epidemics.
Dr. David Martin has produced compelling evidence suggesting that EcoHealth Alliance President Peter Daszak has been planning to generate tons of money for Big Pharma investors through Wuhan coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccines since 2015.
Valuable science explained. Thank you all. I will circulate the truth
is this the most viewed twiv covid video to date ?
Rich inspired me to share a GREAT Sci Fi (hard science fiction) series: The Three Body Problem.
But on balance. I think there are enough "local good people" and I use the method of Occam's razor. So I weigh it all up. Yes, still remember my biology. Still know about the various pandemics in the past and the polio thing -- we got the drink. My children were vaccinated. I am going tomorrow to get the first shot. I had the flu shot several years here in NZ, I want to get this Pfizer, I'm 73. I'm pretty certain that the probabilities favour me (!) I think I will still be alive a bit longer. Being practical I think that the NZ Govt. is too un-cautious; we needed to stay locked down until more were vaccinated. But I will get both as I understand how it works, on balance I dont think the Bad guys are out to get me, as my son does. But I have met a lot of people who do believe this, also many who believe the earth is flat -- or, the know the earth is flat. The world is not as simple as doing tests in a laboratory and expecting say all the mad Trumpers to go away...because, in deep sense, they have a kind of point.....But like Kiekegaard I will take a leap of faith. I like the model of the mRNA vaccine. Sometimes what I like about science is the inherent poetry in the logic or the way things happen. So I am going to experience something, even if I die -- which I doubt. But death comes and e.g. an anaphylactic shock, severe, if fatal would probably be a quick way to die. But I doubt that will happen. I will just go and get my injection.
While I most certainly hope you don’t get an anaphylactic shock situation, I’m sure there will be medical personnel waiting with a shot to fix you right up. May you enjoy a long and healthy life!
@@bobedgar6647 I went to a Maori Marae in South Auckland (my son was distraught as I said he believes that vaccines are part of a plot to kill people etc this comes from his terrible bullying experienced at school and later getting his eye knocked out by the police and so on as well as his (and earlier my) protests against NZ and other nations military involvement and a real fear of Governments and the fact that, indeed, most of the major nations make weapons including bio-war weapons....); but my own view is that on balance we go with at least some belief that most people are "good". Analyzing everything in philosophic terms -- even scientific doesn't persuade -- so a kind of punt called "common sense" is taken. (But remember many people go and get a vaccine with no idea of what is happening, the person who I came out with was convinced it had come from China -- they watch these short bursts of news -- most people don't have any idea -- this doesn't mean they are stupid, it is simply that their lives have led in different ways than say, that of an educated Liberal, as against some very educated right wingers and others -- but people vary everywhere. In my own case I understand the mechanisms pretty well but going to the place it was 1) very well, amazingly well, organized by Maori and Pacific Island people and also some Europeans (Pakeha or Palangi) 2) I had an eerie sense that I was in 1944 or something being herded kindly toward the gas chambers 3) I wanted to get the vaccine (Pfizer) as I wanted to play chess toward the end of the year and I am 73 so as I am not allergic to flu shots... So I got my first shot. I had no significant ill-effects. Later my son pointed to a thing on UA-cam about some people getting severe neurological disorders from Astra-Zenica. He wont get any vaccines. He simply doesn't not trust any Government. Nevertheless we get on o.k. My next shot is in about 4 weeks time. They had people and adrenalin etc ready for anaphylactic reactions. It was well organised. The whole roll out is a bit slow but they are doing now older people and those with disabilities etc. I think though that the Government should have kept us still basically separate from Australia (where there has been a break out of Covid so they are locked down in Melbourne). Australia is a would be United States and is sort gung ho, they didn't recognize native Australians as human beings until the mid 70s, and tried to exterminate them....Or some did....They are pressuring NZ to move away from China but we do as much trade with China as Australia. We need to keep independent, we don't need Australia.
@@Shelmerdine745 My son still refuses to get a vaccine he thinks only cowards get those and that there is a plot by the Illuminati etc. I have a diff. view. I agree that Big Money do a lot of bad things but I feel that the motivation is to make money and keep doing so. My son, who is 49, believes they are out to kill millions of people by putting a substance in the vaccine. His distrust is understandable if you know the political history of the world and they way various nations have misused science over time etc. But I take the view that, on balance, they wont do that, the big vaccine and medical manufacturers etc are wanting to make money not kill millions of people etc but if someone believes otherwise that is what they believe. But I got my first shot. I had no bad reactions but of course I have another one in 30 days. The place I went to was well organised -- by mostly Maori and Polynesian staff, being in South Auckland. It was very good logistically, at this stage dealing with people over 60 and those with disabilities. Next I think will come the others. But the Prime Minister is not vaccinated as she believes she should wait like everyone else. She, of course, is much younger than we all were....Re Common Sense, that is de facto what Hume advocated in the absence of any way of being really able to do deductive logic with any certainty (given a problem requiring absolute justification). Popper quoted his "the sun may not rise tomorrow" and this was the death knell for the logical positivists.....Changing the subject, I asked a doctor if there were any monoclonal anti bodies ready to be used in NZ and he said no, there were not, no such thing in NZ. Sure we had few deaths but we are not as well prepared as we could be. Also the borders need to remain closed while we get much more vaccinated (except those who don't want to be and others)....
@@quagapp the Colonial Period was terrible and disgusting in many ways and in many places. I think of it as a phase in human moral development, which sounds nice but doesn’t help those that suffered through it. I note explicitly that the period has not yet fully ended but that I think all can agree that we, collectively, are making progress.
I just returned from having my second dose of Biontech/Pfizer stuck in my left arm. I’m hoping to avoid the symptoms that frequently accompany the second dose but will happily accept them because I fully expect that Covid-19 would have been my end. I wish you good health and good luck with yours and especially that your son comes along for the ride too. Perhaps he will grow to accept that the dangers he perceives are not so real with time.
@@bobedgar6647 Hi Bob. He was bullyed at school, lost his eye to a police baton after a suicide attempt. He is better than he was but he has lost trust in people. However he started writing poetry last year and is doing well in that way. His schooling was interrupted by the bullying at school. But he decided he wanted to learn more about writing and literature. I have been helping him as I am a writer but I also studied all kinds of subjects. Now he wants to get into University. He just finished a New Start which was hard for him as he has (more or less) for years just played internet games. He has improved but arguing is no good. If someone believes or doesn't believe in something they are part way into knowing something. Many people, for various reasons, stop at belief. And belief or acceptance of something you wish to know is needed to know, and it is a complex mental process. Nor is it irrational to have theories. What is problematic is to hold to such things as being known without testing them. But simply believing is how people become religious. There is also a social aspect to knowledge. How is it communicated? These questions are complex. Nevertheless I myself take the path that the probabilities of there being a plot is low, all things considered. So Occam's razor is used. But some people simply for a view and that is that. I don't necessarily see technology and science as helping humans "progress" I think the concept of Progress is illusory. It is an abstraction and therefore impossible to prove in any way. We can measure some "progresses" but these aren't shown in the world very clearly. Statistics might show medical advances, but we still are faced with, say, huge mental health issues and issues of pollution, and economic and political differentials. Colonialization my forbears were part of, my grand mother born in India. My father is I think of part or maybe totally Jewish extraction from London, but he left England about 1927. He then had a dispute with his father and never talked to him. But re colonialization NZ is really a two nation place now with an increasing number of Asian people. I was talking to a tech doing fibre optic and he was from Kazakhstan. But many are from India, China, Cambodia, Vietnam etc etc. The US is also multi ethnic based. As to the vaccine as a parent I always got my children vaccinated and I get them. I now have 28 days to get my second. Nevertheless: "I grow old, I grow old /Should I wear my trousers rolled".....
Wowza! I hope the NYT or WP picks this up. So much information.
I used to like conspiracy theories - until they fell into the wrong hands. John Lurie.
Very interesting to hear that China shut down so many fresh wet markets across a wide area, and so decisively + so quickly.
The figures he cited about how many people lost the jobs, the scale of that food business.
Astonishing.
Such a pity we have not and do not ongoing reporting.
Those market say so much.
Would be great sometime to see /read/hear serious documentary about that.
Including the scope of origins and bats and wet market live animal markets across southeast Asia.
Most people who have not travelled there cannot really imagine those markets. The past 25 years have so transformative across pacific rim.
thanks Twiv & your guests
Interesting. Some comments are more interesting than 'meeting of like minds'.
"The Chrysalids" (John Wyndham) is a favorite of mine. Read it first in ~1962, when I was 12. Please forgive the caps, but: WATCH THOU FOR THE MUTANT.
TWIV 615. 27th minute to the end.
I heard the story of the Triffids on the radio (later the TV thing was no good in comparison), but the Day of the Triffids was fascinating, frightening. I have 3000 books including Wyndham, a mate recommended the books. H.G. Wells 'The Time Machine is Great', but also Russell Hoban's book Ridley Walker is great. More or less neglected writers...
Re under water I read Jaques Cousteau's book The Silent World and his experiments with octopi and trying hand-grenades etc. But UA-cams about octopi are fascinating they are strange but beautiful things.
So glad I stumbled onto this podcast! cannot recommend it enough to my non-science friends and family!
Am I wrong or have natives and aborigines been eating and handling bats🤔 for hundreds and hundreds of years WITHOUT a major coronavirus outbreak??? ... Don't misunderstand me I don't condone eating or handling bats! Coronavirus is not the only danger, there is of course rabies and possibly Ebola if you are in Africa, but think about it....
outbrakes in the past were naturally ending at smaller scale
as people (groups) didn't live in close proximity and didn't travel like we do.
all of our animal food have (some) risks
That presumes every outbreak in their past has been recorded or added to their oral histories.
The Sequence Diversity in Early samples suggested that "Strains" common in Northern Italy and Washington State USA were older than the predominant "Strain" in Wuhan.
@@Shelmerdine745 that why I put "strains" in quotation marks.
It seems clear that China handled the outbreak in Wuhan in a rapid and exemplary manner - and given the much more widespread community transmission in Italy Spain and the USA that must have been taking place in late late 2019 undetected - an origin of SARS CoV 2 is more likely outside of China.
@@Shelmerdine745 yep the PNAS A - B & C stuff was back in April last year - i thought this November 2020 Serological Study interesting and its implications under reported
academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciaa1785/6012472
@@Siempre1978 What are you smoking?
1:11:01 knocking down some of the conspiracies lack of support through... ...evidence!
22 celcuis in Glasgow scotland weather has picked up after a wet and cooler may great podcast best wishes all from Glasgow scotland stay safe all
Thinner.....Like the movie .....
Can someone please summarize the video without bias?
Translation of original comment:
"Do my research for me, please, because I can't be bothered with nuance."
If SARS COV2 are ,,t.s.,, mutant ,analgezic antipiretics must be avoided If this variant did not retromutate
Interferon induced fever are Best natural antiviral solution in SARS COV2 infection If we do not suppres it
"Addressing rumours gives them oxygen". Sounds Confucian. Perhaps we should listen.