Will we need VFX artists in the future? | OpenAI Sora
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- Опубліковано 15 лют 2024
- OpenAI is the latest and greated in AI video generation and its surprisingly advanced. This makes us ask the dystopian question, are VFX artists going to be irrelivant? I don't think so, but tell me what you think in the comments! Regardless, Sora's imagery is stellar despite many errors, definitely has crossed the threshold of realism in many ways and will only get better.
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as a VFX artist regularly using AI, I can definitely see it being possible to create some vfx without the skillset needed before. however, my job is to stay ahead of the curve -and we'll be on a curve for some time yet. even if all you need to do is describe the FX you want, describing it accurately to get the best results is going to be something that a movie director isn't going to want to get involved in.
Certainly, there will be job losses, but what happens most often in our industry is that the moment a piece of tech comes along to make things easier, we just use the extra time and resources that gives us to take things to another level - to create experiences that just could not have been created before.
"Certainly, there will be job losses" For me this offers, for the first time a real chance for an artist to be able to create Hollywood level films for self(intellectual property ownership) as opposed to being employees. This prospect for me far outweighs the job loss threat. Greetings from South Africa.
@@airtight_ph sure, but it's not the first time. High quality phone cameras, Blender and Unreal Engine have both given the possibility of anyone making an FX based movie for free, and many have. it doesn't mean there's no skill, but the cost of filmmaking is as low as you want it to be.
question from someone who wants to be a VFX artist . shoudl i give up that dream cause of ai
@@matthewberg5835 don't dream about the job, dream about the creative opportunities it affords you. Those will be around whether or not someone pays you to do it.
as if there were not enough challenges in this industry smh, i dunno man but appreciate the optimism.
Stay strong brotha 💪🏼
No worries, it will situate in our life as far as social media do and then people start to realize that it is enough ( like facebook instagram ) mass emigration will be seen to 3d programs again. ( btw photoshop maya and other 3d programs 100 percent will bring ready prompt section to their settings )
I envision a new AI editing software meant solely for tuning in a shot precisely how you need it to look. Perhaps it will have certain editing tools we can't even think of now. Someone will always have to produce the content, but this will consulate lots of jobs in the production pipeline into one.
VFX artists who don’t feel threatened by AI are in denial. We are at the start of a technological revolution that will undoubtedly and drastically shrink the demand for VFX artists in the coming years.
I guess I’m just an optimist! I am not saying the industry won’t shrink. I’m not saying our jobs will be the same. I’m sure when it becomes an issue there will be a transition period and those who refuse to adapt will struggle. But I think that if we evolve with the times, remain open and take new opportunities many VFX artists will be able to secure there for in the next site of opportunity in the eras of AI. We all got worked up that Dalle 3 and MidJourney were going to make graphic designers obsolete but a few years later here we are still paying graphic designers, although as it all evolves so will we too
nah ur wrong. I'm calling it that it will create more jobs in the future than less in the long-term.
@@popthiccle1158 For who? I can hire any warm body to type prompts at a low low rate. Don't need to waste money on a skilled artist who's developed a talent for decades.
@@owenjenkinsofficial Our agency pretty much scrapped the sketch dev department and digital set extensions so... we're not paying them anymore. Pretty soon it'll design fonts and logo's well enough, I imagine. Won't need them either.
Exactly, AI for vfx will appear in editorial where the director can make his creative vision. No need for high paid, over paid vfx artists. Most vfx artists are just users, no coders or designers. Bye .
Subscribed!!!!❤❤
This is super interesting 🤔
Hollywood is not going to like the lack of precise control, as its conception of artistry is virtuosic and guys like Kubrick and Hitchcock and Fincher are lauded for their obsession with detail. Still, I can see over the next 3-5 years something like Sora getting to the point you can make fine-grained edits to a generated video clip ("fewer people in the crowd", "tighter shot on Jane", "lower the camera 2 feet"). All human labor is roadkill to AI eventually. Software engineers have been absolutely hammered but it's coming for everyone. We need a transition plan to a post-scarcity economic model because humans will soon not be worth paying to do anything.
OpenAIs ultimate goal is artificial general intelligence. That, by definition, is a machine that can complete any cognitive task a human can. Artists using these tools, along with the 10s of billions being invested every year, will just accelerate progress towards that goal. Along the way, jobs will be lost under the rising sea level of the increasing capabilities of AI. That could happen in 5 years or 20, but it's increasingly clear it's going to happen. Ironically, the last surviving jobs may be physical labor that requires advanced robotics. We better hope for UBI and that there are no unintended consequences along the way.
And the more we produce, the more it will feed their dataset. They need human creativity to steal it and feed their algo, with the final goal to replace it. These guys deserve jailtime, the biggest art theft in history.
Everything that we think AI can't do now it certainly does in the future and faster. I say don't underestimate it
This. Video after video like this underestimates the exponential growth rate AI goes through. Ones these technologies get into the wild it’s the users that train effects train it. Look how far mid journey grew in just 2023. I’m not a doomsayers but just don’t underestimate it. We can barely speculate how these technologies will shave the edges off of our jobs before people with little experience are empowered to do things those of us in the biz for decades can do.
Yes I agree that it will likely progress far faster than we can imagine, but because we are directing the development of AI systems, we have some influence on its trajectory. I am saying that our jobs will change. They will not look the same as they do today. It may be as big a difference as shifting from hand animating stop-motion to having a computer interpolate keyframes on a timeline for a 3d model.
@@owenjenkinsofficial yeah You are right
AI video generation feels quite intimidating for me since i am still just a beginner and 3d animation, and this new technology came out of nowhere. regardless though i am still learning art and animation no matter what is going on with ai. ai video will only win if the next generation gives up on art in general
I lost my hope bro
and i can't continue to learn
You right brother no matter what happened we need to learn 3d because people will always chose the art created by human not by ai
The internet is truly blowing up over this! Great vid 🙌🏽
And like MKBHD said this the worst it will be moving forward 🤯
Leave a comment below about one AI tool you are either super excited for or an AI tool that scares you out of your minds! ⬇️
I wouldn’t jump the gun jus yet because we’ve been promised incredible things for the last we years and the thrush is that nothing happened as promised…..but regardless of this, for professional artist exists something called academic standards or smpte standards that AI is about 5 years to get to this quality. Just for the people to know, when you make a film or a TV product, it has to pass the QC (quality control), and the bar if extremely high. So I’d say that professional artists shouldn’t worry about anything for a long time……may be a future generation of artists should…..
What positives do you notice? Remember, not everything that shines is valuable...
Each person's essence is etched in their dreams and daily pursuits, especially in their chosen profession. Yet, the looming shadow of AI replacing human roles casts doubt on our future. It's confounding why some fervently champion innovations that jeopardize our fundamental right to earn a living. Beware, the allure of novelty can exact a devastating toll. Remember.
Where does your brain kick into gear? Think about it: When photography came along, it took away some painting gigs, but it also made room for loads of new jobs, like making cameras and developing software. Plus, photography itself sparked a whole bunch of fresh career paths.
What amazing job chances do you see, super-smart, when you finish AI tasks with just a little prompt? Give me one or two examples. And can you reassure me that these jobs won't be taken over completely by AI in the future?
Could you clarify which area sees a big boost in humanity's quality of life?
I mean I feel worry about people who don't learn skill due to the distraction and gets demotivated by social media influencers and they are like why should I learn it because AI can ready to make it in minutes. but they don't know that still human touch and perfection requires. it is an essential part or tool to our productivity.
AI generates, and humans direct and edit.
This will basically make human creation to be less repetitive and more emotional driven when creating.
Love this take! It might make it more repetitive too if used to just fill content gaps fast so I think the keyword is if used correctly, it will enhance our ability to tell stories faster and spend less time in the technical areas and more in the story areas! I think high quality writing will be really important moving forward in the next few years!
@@owenjenkinsofficialor it will lead to people using the ai as visuals *and* writing
Sora is not just video creation. It "learns a physics engine implicitly in the neuronal parameters" ~Jim Fan~.
If (when) scales it could just create VR worlds with vocal commands. That's my opinion ❤️
Eventually one day I’m sure realtime video generation will probably be a thing, but it will be a while because it will need to be able to be processed on machines/system accessible to teams. That’s currently not possible as far as I’m aware, but I’m not a nay sayer for sure.
Hey, I'll be out of high school in a couple years and it's my dream to become a VFX artist. Ai has me somewhat frightened that after years of future studying I might not even be able to land a job in VFX. Should I continue studying it into college, or should I find a different job to pursue?
I say go for it. AI will only improve the 3d and visual industry
Can’t spend all our time wondering if we’ll be obsolete. Just put yourself to work and you will find a niche that fits the industry and your interests. It will probably evolve but if you welcome it, I imagine it will be rewarding. Take not my advice is only a suggestion. But I also will say I have never needed college to excel in 3D. I’m all self taught, UA-cam and a strong mentorship early in my youth.
@@owenjenkinsofficial Thanks!
In the not too distant future, agi will simulate worlds with a gigantic data set of the human life and the workings of nature... Maybe it will be able to produce movies tailored to your emotional state at that moment. Maybe we'll get the ring from Frodo himself. But hey, what are you afraid of, won't this amazing technology make everything easier and cheaper? If Agi is going to make the world a better place, I might as well be unemployed in that world, right?
The people developing this Tech has never asked themselves what the cost of developing AI is. Losing employment is just one piece of the bigger picture. Weaponization, fake news, piracy, over saturation, loss of physical social skills, loss of culture, tailored history etc etc. Every problem we have now that we haven't solved will have a technological burden on top of it and we are moving to slow. Either governments & Companies speed up or AI gets a hard pause. It's a Mexican standoff between the two.
Due to my age, I have witnessed how fast the internet has changed the way of doing business, communicating and socializing all over the world.
Grandfathers who used to be unable to press the buttons on a push-button phone and ask their grandchildren for help now rate games in the market and write comments.
Considering the plasticity of the human brain, I believe this slowdown will not last long.
Ai avatars, deepfake videos and voices are already commonplace.
Even the cold shower effect of apps like Sora lasts for a month or two at most.
Today's people have faced cold and hot wars, economic depressions, waves of unemployment in every period, and I think we have been at peace with technology since we came out of the caves and started traveling on wheels.
AI is not a human, it doesn't breathe, it doesn't love, it doesn't eat, it doesn't need to find a partner to have sex with, so it won't have ambitions, passions, psychosocial problems (let's call it Bug).
It is just a machine that will do its job with the ubermensch sublimity that Nietczche talks about.@@playlisthitmaker9913
4.30 and the statement "wont take VFX jobs for a long time" and the examples after that are in the same category as when Hasselblad said that Pro photographers will stick to real film, or when people invested in the last Blockbuster funding round.
A miscalculation of epic proportions.
When rendered image quality in general has reached pair with what could be filmed in real life or painstakenly animated, all dev resources will go in to fixing control/directing/consistency/and iteration based workflow because that is what is needed to make it a creator tool that will compete in the lucrative profitable world of content. We can ofc have different opinion of what "long time" is.
I predict total control will be implemented in less than 24 months. I predict that there will still be room for some VFX artists that can make the transition, but the future belongs to the very best storytellers that team up with a generative specialized DoP that has the eye for visuals that brings the story to life.
Interesting times indeed.
Just because it can doesn’t mean it will. We still make films in black and white. We still animate in 2d after 3d came out. We still shoot films in film celluloid. We won’t lose our jobs, our jobs will change. I am not saying we should underestimate AIs future capabilities, but we are the users, and yes AI can and may one day become sentient, or become so good at a task we don’t need to execute the dirty work, but we are guiding the development of AI and thereby we maintain the power to direct what inputs and what it relies on.
I don't think these models will ever give users total control because it is impossible for them not to hallucinate. After all, these are very advanced (but still unintelligent) models designed to predict the next frame.
They will get up to about 90% there but that last 10% will basically stay unattainable if not unsustainable in terms of resources needed. What I think will probably happen is that there will be a whole new generation of content creators who will learn to settle with whatever the Ai outputs and call that their vision. This of course will lessen the overall quality of content.
Also, this is only going to be for photorealistic work. Stylized animation will do much better so long as it stays innovative as these Ai tools can only copy what has already been done.
Will it affect jobs in VFX? I say for sure but it won't be the end of the craft as some predict.
So this is my prediction: You are in one way correct about the 90% to 10% for the first iterations of a scene.
But this is also about where LLM:s will be in a year from now. (or 2 years).
The UX of these AI content generator tools will mimic the real world workflow we are used to.
In real life on set as a director you have a talk with a set desiger, the set designer makes some proposals but in camera on shoot day we see that the curtains for example are way off and we direct the props guys to fix it by replacing it.
We use language as our UI. "Please change the color of the curtains to something less vibrant. It takes away the focus from the actors".
When LLM:s reach the same understanding level as your prop guy then these generative models will provide just as much control as real life shoots when it comes to set design, practicals, props, wardrobe, camera angle, lighting and vfx.
Even acting. You will tell your generative platform that you want 3 different takes of a scene. One normal acting, one overacting and one with comic touch and sarcasm.
Then you can improve the one you like the most in detail.
This do not exist today. Will it exist in 24 months? I think so.
@@RappinAcoustic
@@arctistic9973 The thing is, LLMs won't reach the same level of comprehension as a human in two years. Using my example of 90% to 100%, that last 10% takes about 1000 times more resources for a model that the prior 90%. This issue is similar to what CPU designers have with branch prediction and it is why Sam Altman is trying to raise a trillion dollars for more GPUs.
If it takes a trillion dollar setup to fully replace a billion dollar industry then there is little incentive to do so
While I agree that low level prop guys have their days numbered, I really think people are overreacting.
correct when it comes to extremely complex understanding.
But:
-cange curtains
-more backlight
-lets try some haze
- act more surprised
- walk in to the scene just a second later
is not really on the top level of complex language. I predict that LLM:s and generative models will be good enough to completely turn the content world of film and TV upside down within 2 years.
@@RappinAcoustic
I mean come on. Have you heard of controlnet stable diffusion. You don't think this is going to be available within a month or two after sora is released? Face swap and everything else... You could take a Star wars still and z depth map it and outline it like you can in control net and you can completely match that still to your sora output and make your whole scene exactly as the director wants ...boy you really need to brush up on what is already possible and what's going to be possible a couple months after this comes out, I said a week ago the world was going to be a different place within a week or two and already a $800 million studio will not happen, by the end of next year... I'm sorry to tell you... Well I think everybody knows deep down... anyway.. we're at the top of the Hill, enjoy the view, hold on to the handlebars... cause WHEEE! HERE WE GO!
Mind you they had this model LAST March 2023. You have no idea what they have right now. Probably none of us do.
Also mind you matching visuals is not the same as storytelling
@@owenjenkinsofficialvisuals are a part of storytelling, Owen.
Yes that is obviously true, my point is that ai achieving photorealistic visuals generated from a prompt will not necessarily have a good or even a mediocre story or that we are suddenly not a part of the equation anymore. Most ai generated stories I’ve tried to create really suffered from the, “it feels like a 2 year old wrote it.” Until clients, ai or something else can generate a story as unique as humans can generate then we’ll maybe have more cause for concern, but just like making a nice render isn’t usually enough there needs to be purpose behind all that is generated and right now humans are the only best option to have good story and development or motivation behind the work they produce. Yes of course I recognize the power in using visual aspects to portray story and information to audiences, but if a human ain’t directing that ai hasn’t really done a good job at it. It doesn’t know how to cut and edit a video to portray a very specific emotion and pace, etc.
most comapnies including blizzard are banning AI art and so forth
These looong period of time seems to be getting shorter and shorter
AI will replace high salary vfx artists. A director can create his own shots in editing, editorial will be the place. Bye bye vfx
It may be the opposite. It’s very possible it will replace LOW salary VFX artists. The high salary artists are already offering something beyond the average VFX artist. Low salary VFX artists are usually still learning, building talent and handle more tedious parts of the pipeline that AI would be able to more easily replicate.
Wow bad audio dude
Mmmhmm. 😂🤷♂️ sometimes it’s not perfect and that’s okay. This video in particular I had to setup on a different area of my house that I didn’t have prepped for audio 👍🏼 have a nice day!
Because of AI artists are losing the job
Now change “artists” for any other job you know and see what happens in next 20 years
I don’t know if artists are already lofting their jobs to AI. But it’s possible in the future, but I optimistically think it will change the way we work but open new opportunities as well.
You mentioning the whole “ai adds backgrounds instead of artists spending 100 hours doing the same thing” at 5:45 is a perfect example of a way they could use ai instead of hiring people, you even showed an example of it already being possible.
You seem to be okay with the idea of people losing jobs, even if it is a small amount of people. In a world where vfx artists are mistreated, rushed and not paid fairly, i don’t think it’s healthy to even entertain the idea of “adapting” to something that is just gonna be a new way for companies to mistreat them. Even only hiring vfx artists for touchups on the ai things would only give work to a specific portion of artists.
Also, i dont think the stopmotion -> animation thing is applicable to this, as both would still involve artists doing a lot of the work, whereas the things you are predicting seem more like artists guiding something else to do it, then touching up small things afterwards, which could lead to less people doing more vfx shots, rather than more people doing them/more people being paid.
If you reply to this, please heart it as i dont have reply notifications on, but i know you only heart the comments you agree with
Well if we look at history, as technology evolves it has always reduced the number of workers that are needed for that industry. Computing used to require a 50 square foot room full of women and men to run. Nowadays nobody has a problem that those jobs literally disappeared and can just casually use 1000x that speed from your fingertips. My acceptance of loosing people in the job industry is not necessarily because I want it or am totally okay with it, it more the acceptance that we can only do so much to change it. You can’t argue it’s better to still have 60 people managing the processing of every single persons phone computer chip just because the new Apple chips are ten times faster than a room full of people can move. These evolutions of tech always bring shocks, frustration, loss of jobs and an ushering in of a new era. This particular one may be more frightening because we are so reliant upon digital realms for many things and so we have a lot of jobs in the digital space. My thought is some jobs will go away and we WILL have to adapt. Denial is absurd and being upset about stops us from thinking about what we can do to produce new opportunities from the same or a different industry.
Also you seem upset and making blanket statements about what you think I heart or don’t heart in moment where you are emotionally charged is rushed. Maybe it’s just that I stopped replying to as many comments because it’s finals week and I’m taking 23 credits of school in one semester and have 2 jobs and am married, looking to move and have plenty of other things to do. I apologize if I don’t get around to hearting every comment, I do try my best to respond to people. And the heart is, in a way supposed to be used to show that you “love” a comment 🤝🏼🤷♂️😅 l try to heart comments that expound on the subject and don’t just complain
@@owenjenkinsofficial i apologize for making an assumption, but you do seem to only heart comments that are in agreement with you.
As for your first reply to me, I wanna point out that managing computer chips and making art are different. Your argument here seems to be based around the convenience of workers, when there is also the aspect of visual creativity that is a part of this, something that isn’t applicable to processing microchips. Visuals are as important to a story as writing. Without the right visuals, a message can be lost or portrayed wrong, and visuals can lead to boosting the writing and world within a story. Having many different viewpoints when it comes to visuals helps make the story better and can help portray a message more clearly given the different perspectives that would be a part of helping create it. Ai wouldn’t have the life experience or thought process to do that, let alone the different experiences and thought processes of a room full of people.
Something like processing computer chips doesn’t require everyone to be creative and have different experiences, which is why having “a 50 square foot room full of women and men” would be a lesser option than having the convenience at your fingertips.
Art is about bringing unique experiences and feelings into something physical, visual and/or auditory. Not to mention that hearing that something used ai to make a certain aspect is just less impressive overall compared to hearing that a human had the ideas.
Also, could you use paragraphs in your next replies? My adhd had a hard time reading through previous ones
@gingerdog8203 I understand your frustration with this situation and AI and think it is valid. That is for sure. I do have my biases I will not deny, but I try to be aware of them.
I did also want to clarify that any of my comments about the computers and chips were NOT made to cheapen the need for and value behind the art of visual storytelling. I can tell that you have a passion for this area of filmmaking and storytelling and I can assure that I do value visual storytelling in its utmost importance. I love and study visual storytelling consistently. I have no arguments against the power of visuals and AI’s impact on it.
I more so only meant to clarify that film and design are an industrialized format of storytelling. There is still massive value in the industry given the funds that fuel productions we’d otherwise never see have come about, but we must realize it still functions more like a factory than it does an art house. I am only saying that in an industry that is producing film and design like a factory, will definitely be impacted by AI regardless of the value.
I wish it could maintain more artists and force AI to the sidelines, and just make movies and effects with artists. I am very sad that things will probably get more difficult for artists. My argument is only that we must evolve because a money driven industry follows the highest yield for the lowest amount of upfront cost. I do not necessarily believe that is how it should be, or that it encourages the best creative output. But again, because of the structure of the industry it will evolve.
I hope that we find even better ways to express ourselves creatively and work to create art and films that are bigger than us and carry a human aspect to them!
And sometimes finding a better way as an artist means leaving that industry. Once I started freelancing and being able to negotiate my own income every time I get work and also have free time in greater abundance(lol when I’m not killing myself with 23 credits of school 😭) has greatly impacted my creative and mental health for the better.
Freelancing and running your own business does come with its own caveats, but I preferred the freedom to create more than the stability and structure of a 9-5 VFX job.
To each there own, but I do think the most important thing in this era is that artists stay connected and find ways to work and create together outside of work and responsibilities. This will relieve us even if for a moment the fears of AI and allow us to spend our time learning and growing together as artists. I take a lot of time away from work to spend time creating and working on my friend’s creative visions and they do the same for me. I only wish to cultivate more of this amongst artists.
No. The answer has been and still is, no
Its not what it seems. Sure, SORA is visually great because it's trained in "PIXELS" BUT iT DOESN'T Understand 3D SPACE at ALL.
Those SORA generations are just stock videos superimposed on other videos + some flawed improvisation.
It can't make something up "organically" and it does NOT understand physics, spatial cognition, anatomy yet
It has to understand those fundamentals before creating videos that can pass as professional.
Unless SORA can understand, learn, and operate 3D software (like Blender, Maya, Houdini, etc) it's not really a cause for concern yet.
Unless SORA can AT LEAST generate 5 videos with the exact same scene in 10 camera perspectives (Aerial Perspective, low angle shot, High angle, close-up, fish eye, etc. ) with various lighting effects, it's not really that significant yet.
My take is before Ai accomplishes this, AGI has to be achieved first. There is so much real world understanding that's involved here and it would take an Ai that perceives the real world at the level that humans do to achieve this feat.
Ai just a tool, like simulations, etc.
Exactly 👍🏼 I think it is a slightly different tool because it can learn and understand faster than previous toolsets
Sure it is just a tool. For now. When it can so what you can in fraction of cost - you will lose your job