Nobody actually gives better information. I just found this channel two days ago and have watched 11 vids 😅..I'm addicted to thus bc I'm never lost or arguing about anything
So, in conclusion: you could take a wr first, and then take a RB 2nd. Or, you could take a RB first and then take a wr 2nd. Great info guys! I would've never been able to figure that out, but thanks to your video everything makes sense now.
@@DegenerateSpeculator I've tried all the draft approaches, but the teams I feel best about are early heavy WR. I want at least 5 wr in the first 10 rounds and not opposed to 6 wr in first 10 with 3 RB and 1 QB, just punt on te. The draft I'm currently in I've already taken 3 wr and unless Etienne is available in round 4 I will have 5 wr and 1 rb in first 6 rounds, likely a RB in round 7. That is my preferred roster build out of all the different routes to go.
Actually, you wouldn't want to go WR with your second rounder. You would want either a top 6 WR in round 1 or a RB and then a RB in round two. Go after WR rounds 3-6.
Season points isn't the metric. The metric of value is points over replacement. If a player gives you 12 games of 18 points, injured other games, if replacement scores 10, that means the player gives 96 points over replacement. Maybe people start injured players.
Man this shows how important it is to get those currently going as wr2-3 that hit and become wr1. That jump is just insane. The opposite is also true (grabbing wr1 expecting them to produce wr1 numbers and then they drop off to wr2). Picking the right wr2s that may take a step forward into wr1s is a risky move but can win you leagues.
Great video guys again. Question on Ridley... You did a great blueprint and suggested pivoting off Metcalf, would you do so to Ridley and get something on top?
Underscores how important is to trade for elite WR producers when possible during the season - even if you feel like you might be overpaying to a slight degree. The difference makers have such a higher level of production than the guys one or two tiers below. Perfect example: if you traded for Ceedee Lamb in the first few weeks of last season when he was not performing to his ADP you probably won your league if you also hit on a waiver add of laporta, kyren or puka.
The issue with these stats is that they have to be full PPR, which makes them not very useful for too many people. Using PPR you are overinflating WR values to the point that you should go WR early and often. This also looks at only the finishes, not based upon the ADPs when drafting. There were WR1s last year that weren't top 12 picks at the position. If you are going to use these stats to draft from, you need to know who those top 12 guys will be ahead of time. Whereas some of them have a really great chance (think Lamb, Tyreek, JJ, Amon Ra and Chase), some have just as much of a chance to fall anywhere from a WR1 to a WR3. The stats also break the cutoffs at each 12 WRS but the scoring doesn't beak that way. For example in full PPR last year the number 24 WR scored 218.6 pints and the number 25 WR scored 217.2 points. Even the difference from the WR12 to the WR13 was only 10 points, not the "70 point average". Why, because there was a huge difference at the top. This was the scoring of the top four WRs: 1) 403.2 2) 376.4 3) 330.9 4) 298.5 The number 12 WR scored 260.4. So, there were bigger gaps at the top than even going from #4 to #12. And These are the highly inflated full PPR numbers. I agree that there is a huge tier of guys, and the cutoff is after the first 6 or 7 WRS (Depending on if you believe in Puka Nacua). The moral of the story: If you don't secure a top six WR in the first two rounds, pivot to another position. There will be plenty of WRs in the third, fourth, fifth and maybe even sixth round, unless you play in a format that overinflates WR values.
If you are drafting in the front end of the first round you are much better off taking elite TE/QB if you took a RB OR R.White or maybe Jacobs/Elite QB (if you drafted elite WR in Rd 1.) than trying to wade through the mess of WRs available late Rd 2/early Rd 3. Having like B. Hall/Laporta/Allen feels way better than B.Hall/Aiyuk/Evans, for example. Build your team around a core of elite players.
Yes and no. It obviously can't predict the outcomes of WR and where people will land, but we know generally who's better from a tier based perspective than other guys. Generally speaking, Chase is going to outproduce Olave. Could the inverse happen? Of course. There's always variance. But what this video does illustrate is that you need to be more aggressively drafting the "good" WRs near the tops of your drafts rather than jumping into the RB dead zone or taking a stab at the mid-tier QB1s in rounds 4-7 who are all going to produce very similar. WRs have more predictable production and less odds of being injured so if you can lock up more guys with a higher probability to finishing in the WR1/2 & 3 tiers your odds to win increase dramatically.
Easily one of the most slept on fantasy channels on UA-cam. Love the data that you guys are presenting on a regular basis lately 🙏🏽
Nobody actually gives better information. I just found this channel two days ago and have watched 11 vids 😅..I'm addicted to thus bc I'm never lost or arguing about anything
So, in conclusion: you could take a wr first, and then take a RB 2nd. Or, you could take a RB first and then take a wr 2nd. Great info guys! I would've never been able to figure that out, but thanks to your video everything makes sense now.
Just try and stay balanced early. Middle rounds 4-8 are WR gold mines IMO
@@DegenerateSpeculator I've tried all the draft approaches, but the teams I feel best about are early heavy WR. I want at least 5 wr in the first 10 rounds and not opposed to 6 wr in first 10 with 3 RB and 1 QB, just punt on te. The draft I'm currently in I've already taken 3 wr and unless Etienne is available in round 4 I will have 5 wr and 1 rb in first 6 rounds, likely a RB in round 7. That is my preferred roster build out of all the different routes to go.
Would you still go wr heavy if you have the choice between Robinson or hall?
@@dmav2074 Hall and Robinson are more valuable to me because the scarcity at RB workhorse roll. I would take them over everyone but Lamb, Chase, Hill
Actually, you wouldn't want to go WR with your second rounder. You would want either a top 6 WR in round 1 or a RB and then a RB in round two. Go after WR rounds 3-6.
Season points isn't the metric. The metric of value is points over replacement. If a player gives you 12 games of 18 points, injured other games, if replacement scores 10, that means the player gives 96 points over replacement. Maybe people start injured players.
Man this shows how important it is to get those currently going as wr2-3 that hit and become wr1. That jump is just insane. The opposite is also true (grabbing wr1 expecting them to produce wr1 numbers and then they drop off to wr2). Picking the right wr2s that may take a step forward into wr1s is a risky move but can win you leagues.
Meaning do not draft safe players that are in the wr2-3 range as them returning on their adp is so not worth it.
Great video guys again. Question on Ridley... You did a great blueprint and suggested pivoting off Metcalf, would you do so to Ridley and get something on top?
Thanks for the data, I gave you the new sub
Hey Guys... Very Interesting!!! I am curious how has this drafting worked for you in the past? Thank you
Underscores how important is to trade for elite WR producers when possible during the season - even if you feel like you might be overpaying to a slight degree. The difference makers have such a higher level of production than the guys one or two tiers below. Perfect example: if you traded for Ceedee Lamb in the first few weeks of last season when he was not performing to his ADP you probably won your league if you also hit on a waiver add of laporta, kyren or puka.
The new logo color is FIRE 🔥🔥
The issue with these stats is that they have to be full PPR, which makes them not very useful for too many people. Using PPR you are overinflating WR values to the point that you should go WR early and often.
This also looks at only the finishes, not based upon the ADPs when drafting. There were WR1s last year that weren't top 12 picks at the position. If you are going to use these stats to draft from, you need to know who those top 12 guys will be ahead of time. Whereas some of them have a really great chance (think Lamb, Tyreek, JJ, Amon Ra and Chase), some have just as much of a chance to fall anywhere from a WR1 to a WR3.
The stats also break the cutoffs at each 12 WRS but the scoring doesn't beak that way. For example in full PPR last year the number 24 WR scored 218.6 pints and the number 25 WR scored 217.2 points. Even the difference from the WR12 to the WR13 was only 10 points, not the "70 point average". Why, because there was a huge difference at the top. This was the scoring of the top four WRs:
1) 403.2
2) 376.4
3) 330.9
4) 298.5
The number 12 WR scored 260.4. So, there were bigger gaps at the top than even going from #4 to #12. And These are the highly inflated full PPR numbers.
I agree that there is a huge tier of guys, and the cutoff is after the first 6 or 7 WRS (Depending on if you believe in Puka Nacua). The moral of the story: If you don't secure a top six WR in the first two rounds, pivot to another position. There will be plenty of WRs in the third, fourth, fifth and maybe even sixth round, unless you play in a format that overinflates WR values.
Basically always take wr in round 1 and only take another wr in round 2 if they are in that top 12 spot aka the 1.09-1.12 draft spots.
for the smiles!
If you are drafting in the front end of the first round you are much better off taking elite TE/QB if you took a RB OR R.White or maybe Jacobs/Elite QB (if you drafted elite WR in Rd 1.) than trying to wade through the mess of WRs available late Rd 2/early Rd 3. Having like B. Hall/Laporta/Allen feels way better than B.Hall/Aiyuk/Evans, for example. Build your team around a core of elite players.
This is exactly the reason I am going WR in the early 1st round if I can get one of the top 5 guys
im still taking devonta especially if hell be running majority in the slot
What if we have 6 WR in the top 13 👀
Here for the smile. hahaha.
Only subbed for the smile
It would be better if you took the fantasy points per game average
I'll subscribe when u add timestamps like every other channel
Bro said don’t pick polk nah I am pick him he will have good opportunities to get on the field and we’ll be starting so off the rip he is get targeted
Can Waddle stay healthy?
This video wasn't helpful at all. Of course wr1's score more than wr2's but you don't know who's 1's or 2's until the season is over
Yes and no. It obviously can't predict the outcomes of WR and where people will land, but we know generally who's better from a tier based perspective than other guys. Generally speaking, Chase is going to outproduce Olave. Could the inverse happen? Of course. There's always variance. But what this video does illustrate is that you need to be more aggressively drafting the "good" WRs near the tops of your drafts rather than jumping into the RB dead zone or taking a stab at the mid-tier QB1s in rounds 4-7 who are all going to produce very similar. WRs have more predictable production and less odds of being injured so if you can lock up more guys with a higher probability to finishing in the WR1/2 & 3 tiers your odds to win increase dramatically.