HIMARS on Russian Radar - how does it get through?
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- Опубліковано 4 тра 2024
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NOTE: I realize that the detection range of the SU-25 was too far away, but I took some creative license with the video because the track looked best in that location.
HIMARS stands for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Launcher System. It is used by the Army and U.S. Marine Corps for long-range precision fires. 4 of these systems were donated to Ukraine with more on the way.
HIMARS rockets seem to be getting though Russian air defenses where they are striking logistics and command and control centers deep behind enemy lines. But how are these missiles getting past the traditionally good Russian air defenses.
I believe that Russia has never encountered a RAM or Rocket Artillery and Mortar threat before. They are used to ABT (Air Breathing Threats) such as Aircraft and TBM (Tactical Ballistic Missile) threats, but have not learned how to deal with RAM.
So the missiles are probably showing up on radar, but since HIMARS rockets don't fit the profile of an aircraft or a ballistic missile, the system doesn't know what to do with them until it is too late.
Russia may be negate this by a software update or by training.
References:
missilethreat.csis.org/system....
FM 44-15-1
TM 9-1430-602-10-1
As a HiMARS operator, I’m happy to see my equipment fighting for freedom
Thanks bud
Awesome 😎
Thanks bro.
bring the RAIN! yeah!
A piece of equipment that gives Russian military headache.
There are also significant economic aspects to consider here. HIMARS ammo is an expensive rocket but it's not THAT expensive. Almost by definition, anything with the speed and precision to successfully intercept one of these HIMARS rockets is not going to be a cheap item. The cost to attack versus the cost to defend is radially in favor of the artillery once you also include the value of whatever the rocket volley destroys if it gets through. Russia is already to the point of tightly rationing any guided munitions since sanctions severely limit their access to components like semiconductors while USA can essentially make as many rocket artillery packs as the government feels like paying for.
One billion pays for 10,000,we need factories spooled up now!
but the last bit of your last sentence may be a problem by the end of the year. I am not so certain whether a GOP controlled Congress will be as willing to finance the war in Ukraine as has been seen by now (let alone potentially giving a hated Democratic president a win in foreign affairs...)
@@herrsan dude if there is one bipartisan issue in Congress its war
China is more than happy to supply chips for them
@@rodiculous9464 not a hope in hell or those companies will get sanctioned as well and no more European or american markets. So far in total11 Chinese companies breached the sanctions that's a tiny drop in the ocean given the thousands of companies in china. Guess who produce most chips Taiwan and the United states produce over 50 percent while china only produces 5 percent, a lot of which are produced in China by non Chinese multi nationals. And a lot of the equipment the Chinese semiconductor companies rely on to manufacture there chips is produced abroad and needs a lot of expertise to produce so very difficult and time consuming to copy.
As a Ukrainian I'm very thankful for the help and support your countries have provided. Russians have lots of missles and artilery and the only way to win is fight smart. And that's what we can do now, and all those precise hits on their warehouses is a great practice. We'll keep it up.
how about stop shelling the civilian population.
@@debbies3763 you don't know much about war do you? Before you speak you might want to learn
@@debbies3763 how about you tell this to your bosses in Kremlin, bot.
The only army in Europe since ww2 who's shelling civilians is russian army, it has been seen and proven, and the whole world knows this.
Debbie, you're talking to a Ukrainian. They are not shelling civilians, it would be their own citizens they would be shaking if they did.
It is the Russians who are intentionally massively shelling civilians.
Pretty annoying it took so long for our government to get them to Ukraine and into the war. I hear the Russians got hit so hard their artillery strikes against Ukrainians were a fraction of what they were before. The US is still holding back a lot of weaponry that could make even bigger differences over there. Time will tell how far they will actually go though.
This is the best example of don’t judge a book by its cover…when I saw this channel
it was just some random guy staring at the screen, in his bathrobe I believe! Turned out to be one of the best channels for in depth military knowledge and great breakdowns on mil. hardware. By far one of my favorite channels. Great Job and thanks.
really informative - more than I have gotten form many other sources!! Thanks!!!
Me too! The camera frame looked so grumpy that i could bet there's a cigarette stick lit up hidden somewhere behind camera waiting for the shoot too be done.
YES, AMAZING CHANNEL
OMG another casualty of propaganda
@@MrMigueldelaO only because it satisfies what you want to believe and not reality
So what I'm hearing is that HIMARS has a good period of time to act and inflict significant damage even with the relatively small number of HIMARS systems sent to them. Everything from safely striking high value targets to completely disrupting Russian equipment and personnel deployments by forcing them to try to counter the HIMARS threat. I know it gets said about everything that gets sent to Ukraine, but this system does have the capacity to be a "game-changer" in that it has extremely high potential as a disruptive force. Especially given that by the time the Russians track the missile trajectory back to the launch area and scramble a heli or jet to hit it, the HIMARS is likely long gone. God bless shoot and scoot capability.
I doubt they even try because when they arrive they would probably find an empty stretch of road and risk getting their air assets shot down
@@ProsperityEngine I was gonna say the same thing. If the Russians try to go after the HIMARS they could be walking into a trap. There may or might not be a HIMARS waiting for them. However they might be Ukrainians waiting for them.
@@ProsperityEngine If the Ukrainians are able to use the HIMARS to strike valuable targets, like supply depots and commander centers then the Russians would likely have no choice but to try to destroy them.
The shoot n scoot means troops with Stingers can be placed ready to hit an attacking aircraft. Who arrive with no target to hit.
I've heard, that the HIMARS are travelling with air defense systems, so the trucks are probably gone, but the air defense will still be in place.
was an ADA operator. very good overview of the process of identifying air threats. even with slow moving drones properly identifying and shooting one down is extremely difficult. if you aren’t vigilant and experienced with the air pattern you’re not gonna see it quick enough
That, and apparently also screw-up and shoot your own planes…
Plus they are trying to do this drunk😄
And if you do react too quick you accidentally shoot down airliners.
6:38 Yes, I can. This is literally what I do for a living (in my case it's for aircraft). Can confirm everything you've said in regards to software development. Even the most urgent hotfixes go through months on months of planning, design, preparation, implementation, testing, review, verification, quality assurance, more testing, and so on.
As expected due to the sharp acceleration in the evolution of ground-based air defenses (especially considering that modern air defenses are software-defined radio systems and their updating is done simply by updating programs ...) now air defenses knock down himars full packages already with video proofs on UA-cam and telegram
Therefore, nothing has been heard about himars as well as bayraktars for a long time...
And there have already been reports of shooting down volleys from about 10 stormshadows that participated in a recent combined attack, which is why the results of these attacks are extremely doubtful and basically look like just a flick on the nose, although the PR of these operations is so huge, as if the capital was captured, PR people in this conflict, the only ones work best of all (because chatting is not trenches under fire to dig)
As usual, history shows that any miracle weapon very quickly ceases to be so in a military conflict
I'm Ukrainian. I came by to say thank you to all the kind people who supported us during those dark times.
Shameless Zelensky's should be thrown to the lions.
The western governments and people are pretty unanimous in support of spending significant amounts of our tax dollars and military resources to support Ukraine, even our small country New Zealand. Our former minister of defence has dropped everything to personally go to Ukraine to volunteer. If our countries were invaded we would want the same international support.
@@starlightbarking9495 I didn't know N.Zeland former minister is in Ukraine, helping as as volunteer. Thanks for sharing that. I'll tell this strory to my friends to encourage them. I hope your beutiful country will stay peaceful and prosperous.
@@oleof635 Its possible. But we have survived much worse :)
Four days before the war something important happened, that triggered the war; intel in video "Ukraine War: Made in Switzerland" on channel Giureh.
6:00 it gets worse - rocket artillery doesn't fly at a constant speed, especially once the motor is burnt through. So during the terminal phase - where it's getting shot down or landing on target, there's going to be even less of a speed difference between different types of MLRS rockets.
So that 0.4 mach difference in max velocity may end up being pure fuckin noise during the terminal phase.
For a former infantry instructor at Ft. Benning, Ryan, you sure are one rational, mellowed out dude. Your explanations are excellent, and I'm sure your trainees appreciated you for it!!
hi borat
@@davidmoser3535
Jagjemash!!
Huh, but you're a Kazachstani journalist who supports the US' war of terror?
Borat used to be funny a couple decades ago. Now he's a sad clown that sacrificed his sense of humor for getting pats on the head from the movie industry elites. But I guess everyone has to make a living.
And yeah, Ryan also doesn't suffer from the excessive machoism that often accompanies some former military types. This guy is both knowledgeable and down-to-earth which is refreshing.
For HIMARS it often will not be just 6 missiles as you often have several launchers available for 12-24 missiles in one attack. But then I have witnesses a launch of 144 plus (4 batteries of MLRS each firing 2/3 of launchers can fire 288 missiles missiles and still have 144 on hand) in one volley back in Feb 1991 with 1st (US) Arm Div and 75th FAB in DS.
That would be scary as heck down range
Yep! I was S3 of the 75th. We carpeted Madina Ridge for you guys with a salvo of 192 rockets from the BDE (2 batteries of 6/27FA). Kept two launchers locked and loaded for counterfire during the prep. That put 123,264 DPICM bomblets into the target area. Average person has no idea .
@@redleg2103 As we were the GS ADA Btry, I was monitoring the Div Cmd net for the Btry Cdr. I remember when the ATACMS was launched, the next think over the net was: What the F*** was that! Obviously had not been paying attention to the coor
dination to target across Corps boundaries. But then it does kind of resemble a shuttle launch when you are close enough.
@@richardmacdonald6303 It is pretty impressive at the launch point as well. It was a brave new world over those few days. We were given an emergency fire mission for ATACMS by AWACS over FM to take out two targets. In those ancient days, the launchers were updated periodically from survey points and used inertial guidance to determine their actual firing location. We had exactly six of the new GPS systems in the brigade - about the size of a small icebox. Each MLRS battery commander had one, the ops officers of the two cannon batteries had one, and I did. Three satellites were in view maybe 2/3's of the time. We kept a launcher loaded with ATACMS. We were in the process of racing across nowhere land from supporting the Ist ID breach to catch up with 1st AD. I slammed on the brakes. The launcher came racing over, updated his survey off my GPS location, moved off a few hundred meters, and launched his two missiles against two SAM sites over 200 kilometers away. First combat hipshot with a MLRS off GPS and done with a pair of ATACMS. Cool stuff.
Very different time...we weren't holding ANYTHING back.
Well laid out explanation that even the laymen on this topic can easily understand. Thanks
Ditto
Tritto
Maybe even the orcs can understand this video L L S SHIPS
@@Lucre993 lets hope they dont
Himars has become a collective name, for both the platforms and missiles fired by it. Technically, we speak about the M142 system to fire a variety of advanced missiles.
However, the same can be done with the older M270. According to some sources, Ukraine has almost as much M270's as M142's. But both platforms can fire the "Himars bad-ass missiles".
AS far as my research goes, Ukraine has (or will get) about 24 platforms to harass Russian targets within a range of 80 km. Not to mention: The turtle known as the glorious German nation and its bold and persistant Chancellor Scholz plans to send the staggering number of THREE Mars-II platforms, a licensed version of the M270. To arrive in August-September: very fast, according german standards.
That second paragraph made my Saturday. lol. Very true.
24 platforms is nothing lets be real here. Russians have 200 Tornado MLRS and 100 BM30 MLRS systems, and those systems can fire rockets with range of 200km... And the Russians literally have thousands of shorter range MLRS systems. And thousands of artillery pieces, and not just any garbage stuff like western media says, but self propelled howitzers like 2S19 Msta. When you actually know this, western media propaganda starts to look ridiculous.
After this conflict Germany's reputation as a leader will be tarnished for decades to come. What a joke.
Do you think Scholz is talking to Russia back-channel and dragging his feet to keep in Putin's good graces?
@@ramzeppelin Hey IT, Some of these super-accurate weapons should be a big deterrent to war. No one wants a small rocket or shell to come out of the clouds and land in their lap. If leaders know that starting wars will 100% guarantee their death, they won't start them.
I love how you explain things like this so that all the civilians can better understand just how not like the movies and video games war actually is.
This is pretty movie like though. Best means of defense against this threat would be a point defense system like the kashtan ciws
@@michaelswagson4457 More videogame-like than movie. Games hold to a strict system to give players a means of learning, and countering. Movies just do whatever looks the coolest; unless they hire a team to consult for realism, but that's a minority.
One of your best videos yet, Ryan. I appreciate detailed explanations of battlefield technology, tactics and logistics. Helps me to understand why events on the battlefield are unfolding as they are (mainstream media is good at summarizing WHAT has happened, but not necessarily WHY). Thanks again.
Nicely done but you missed the most important thing of all. People. I sat at a console for years as an air defence operator and I can tell you that no matter how fancy the gear was or is that made no difference. The deciding factor on whether or not something would get through was the people operating the system. If, as you show in the video, the systems are manually operated and you need to manually interrogate the target then there is little to no chance that they russians would ever be able to diseminate the incoming threat. 85-90% of the people I worked with hated their job, thought the boss was a wanker and couldn't be stuffed with any of it, and I was in a western military. Imagine the moral and hate in the Russian military. They do indeed have excellent equipment on paper however as we've all seen in the past few months, they are totally incompetentent when it comes to the operation of all of it! Great work on your vid - that was really well done.
It's not the russian weaponry that needs a "software update", it's the operators of said weaponry that need it. All the tech in the world won't do you any good if your troops train on it once a year and spend the rest of the time building mansions for oligarchs
@Russian Z logo misses 3 more letters: N A and I. You really are a child
@@welditmick 🧂
If they can get software that identifies HIMARS rockets and shoots them down automatically then you dont even need skilled operators. Its all on autopilot
@@muzungu9625 That may be a while though, just look at the issues with the Patriot system during Desert Storm and how long it took to correct it.
Then Russia's definately screwed because if this war taught us one thing, it's that Sergei Conscriptovich doesn't really learn anything.
If the only identifying factor is the speed difference, would it be possible possible to "overcharge" a grad system - or - slow down the HIMARS rockets? Thus making them appear almost 100% identical to even an updated Russian system.
I have the same exact thought/question!
Potentially a different fuel mixture in the Grad that burns faster if the construction can withstand it could speed it up. Not an expert though, so can't be sure
My guess is that you'd have to make a new batch of rockets with an updated propellant mix, or at least change out the motors, to change the speed characteristics, and you'd lose range if you slowed them down.
reduce the weight of the grad warhead or remove it completely. That´s what I would try first.
HIMARS rockets come in a 6 pack sealed system called a "pod". You would have to change the solid fuel system at the beginning of putting the pod together to change the speed of the rocket.
Great video Ryan. I think perhaps the best testament to the quality of your channel is the huge number of people with their own military and strategic knowledge who follow and comment on your work!
What I have heard in the last couple of days is that the Ukrainians sometimes might initially fire a big volley of GRAD rockets then fire either just the HIMARS or a"high-low" combo of multiple M31's and maybe a Tochka-M for good measure. That would overwhelm the Russian air defenses as much as fool them.
Exactly this. Russians cannot distinguish HIMARS from Grad rockets on the radar.
A single reply never displays when you "view reply". I am adding a reply to this comment to see if it displays with 2 comments.
The result was that it now reports 2 replies but only displays the test reply.
The the test replies report e now and display only 2. Weird that the original reply has never displayed. End of testing. (NOTE: I exited the video and reentered each time.)
@@lynncomstock1255 I believe that happens when the first reply is removed, either by the commentor, the uploader, or UA-cam.
MLRS in general is a bad Momma Jamma. Watched our Division MLRS send out the Evening Hate to the Iraqis in 91 and thought, damn, glad their on our side.
*they're
Great video from a proven and very knowledgeable source. I love getting in early.
Excellent and hysterical when you say, "have you ever tried to get software developed quickly" I'm an IT professional. I'm rolling on the floor. Great educational context! Thank you!
I just found your channel a couple days ago, and I have watched everything you've made on here. I'm not in, nor was I ever in a military position, but I find these topics to be extremely interesting. Thank you so much for this great content!
Speed of the rockets also makes it practically impossible as it take less than two minutes from launch to target. You shoot decoys and when they unleash the S400 then you finally shoot actual missiles. Everyone keeps saying Russia has good air defense forces. What makes anyone so sure when they are failing every night?
Paper
Thats normally how people conduct SEAD aswelll.
They just saturate the air defence network with a shit ton of cheap tomahawks, and then send in the F-35s
@SPECIAL MILITARY OPERATION That's great, now they waste their limited SA missiles on relatively cheaper rockets. I guess they got desperate after a few dozen locations got deleted.
@SPECIAL MILITARY OPERATION so 3 himars systems to deplete a S-400 battery then send in the Tochas to hit the S-400 radars?
@@professionalschizo because he is kremlin bot troll?
I'd be interested to know what frequencies the long range search radars work at. Long range radar is almost always lower frequency, and a radar that can see 600 km may just not have the resolution to pick up a HIMARS from the front.
If a HIMARS rocket's smallest dimension is 227 mm, and you're looking at it from the front, you really need your radar to be 3GHz or higher, as that gives you a 100 mm wavelength. Seeing things smaller than the wavelength of your sensor is VERY difficult, and you really want a lot more than parity between your wavelength and the target. If you're horizontally polarised and looking at a HIMARS from the side, you can probably see it with longer wave radars, but shooting from the side at something doing mach 2.5 might mean the rocket has already hit the target by the time your missile gets there.
It's worth noting that the radar on a Phalanx has a high enough resolution to track its own 20mm rounds in flight so it can correct its aim, but it has a very short range.
@Grendelmk1 That's not true: You can very much see objects smaller than one wavelength for any given wavelength. They will appear faint, and there will be no detail of any sort to identify them -- it will appear "point-like". If there is more than one travelling at a similar velocity and close by, they will blur and appear as if there was just one. But, you can definitely resolve the precise location and velocity, no problem. Hence, using radars in the 10-100MHz range is well justified for these 600km+ surveys, as long as you can elevate your antenna above the horizon. If it's beyond the horizon, there are other tricks available that I do have not enough space here to explain. ( Source: I happen to have a PhD on the topic. Also: look up the French Graves space radar system. Also: Look up the Compton effect)
WOW. This is an excellent post. I'm not adding anything to the discussion, just wanted to complement your knowledge and clear explanation. Maybe there's hope for UA-cam yet!
@@JurekOK Thanks for correcting this absolute nonsense, George
@@dziban303 You know, I appreciate George taking the time to educate me, rather than just being a bit of a prick ;) I've got some reading to do, and you need to work on your social skills.
@@Grendelmk1 You aren't that far off. A remote theoretical potential under lab conditions is a long way from being practically useful for high precision mach three intercepts in field applications. I would add that the frontal area of the rocket is not a flat plate, the nose cone shape won't be giving any direct return. The only radar counter that I can see is using radar from the side with an array of receivers to collect scatter and remotely located intercept missiles,(radar on the side missiles and intercept from the front) but that is a cumbersome fragile mess for mobile systems.
The problem with radar systems is having enough information to identify the target and when there are a large number of targets the task becomes very difficult. What happens when the Himars have the same speed as Grad rockets? The army with the best technology will always have an advantage. Good video
They still have different range and flight path, if you you allow the radar to observe the rockets or missiles long enough, the two types will be separated out by good software.
Great content, great analysis, as a engineer I love your videos. Keep up the good work you are appreciated.
Interesting analysis and you make good points. However, if there is one thing we have observed, is that the Russians (going back to Soviet times) have a penchant for exaggeration. They claim that their Pantsir systems can effectively shoot down agm's and Jdams. I suspect that under test conditions that may be true, but how systems behave in real conditions are often at variance with controlled tests. There are a number of documented accounts of Pantsir's being taken out by precision munitions.... I also think that the S-400 capability is probably problematic and perhaps you are correct, there is a software issue....however, I sent your video link to a friend who was a surface to air site commander (sam-2's to sam-6's) while in the Soviet army and his comment was that in a wartime situation, they would shoot at anything that is not friendly. This is why there have been some Russian friendly fire incidents with their aircraft. He says that that policy is not changed. The local site commander has full autonomy once given the orders to defend. He would order different tracking modes, or support systems to engage...and would be likely severely reprimanded if he didn't. Clearly, Himar attacks are longer range attacks and you don't need a computer to figure that out if you can detect them. Speed and angels and distance, which you could do with a slide rule, would tell you pretty quick if it's Himars or grads....so it begs the question as to why the S-300 and S-400's have failed to engage them. I suspect that it is more than a software issue and may be more related to an inability to lock or get precise intercept calculation as they can't predict it's path with accuracy. Could be software or something more fundamental with their search/tracking radars.
Yeah nothing to do with software, 227mm rockets flying low and fast are really hard to hit
The flight time of the variant of HIMARS rocket that Ukraine is using is around 2 minutes. And you have a lot less than 2 minutes to decide whether to launch a missile to intercept it because you need to account for the flight time of your own missile. You can forget about having the amount of time needed to use a slide rule and do a manual calculation. I think Ryan's contention that a lack of time to make a decision compounded with a potential software shortcoming is a very plausible explanation as to why Russian air defense systems have been having problems defending their airspace from HIMARS launched rockets.
@@oryxland3994 Exactly that - 2 minutes are max time assuming it flights directly over SAM, what if it is angled away from SAM, or it's path is 40km away from SAM. Likewise how long after launch does it take to detect it? Then intercept rocket actually needs to catch-up... so you right. Decision making could be 10-30s at most, add generally poor ruzzian training and I think it becomes very unlikely they could intercept any. I would argue there is higher chance of missile malfunctioning due to defect, then it being actually shot down by ruzzians. Not only that it is estimated that 40-60% of ruzzian rockets fails to hit their targets, that is static targets and here we are talking about relatively small target travelling at Mach 2.5, with window of opportunity to engage of maybe 30s... what are the odds of it getting downed??? minimal.
@@lp9280 Detection would be almost immediately upon coming within range seconds essentially essentially but I do think the speed of the hymar is part of the problem maybe if they used something similar to what we have like the phylinx it would be OK by trying to hit one of those with another missile I imagine is incredibly difficult because if they were just using lead they could just Saturate its path using computers for targeting could almost certainly track the movement well enough to get solid hit.
I read that initial versions of Pantsir were considered a failure and had a dead zone above. Maybe not true. And not sure how much they improved since.
Been watching this guy for awhile now ..
Love how he breaks it down.
And seems up to date with things
In order for the S400 to be able to conduct the quick intercept you're going to have to move the S400 site within, roughly, 30-40 miles from the HIMARS launch point. In other words, within counter-battery range. Thus the Russians are keeping the S400 beyond 60 miles from the FEBA. They're relying on the S300 but that is (1) not capable, and (2) long-compromised to NATO systems.
Also himars does "sequencial launch - simultaneous impact" which means you pop them off on different trajectories at slightly different times but they all wind up together on the same spot at the same time. That must be tracking hell.
Arent HIMARS are also overwhelming russian air defense systems? I mean, if there are 6 rockets inflight, you need at least 6 rockets on your side to take them down and most BUK, S300 or S400 have how many rockets available to shoot and track at once? And what if you use two HIMARS and fire 12 rockets at them?
HIMARS' missiles, the GMLRS, is meant for precision, not for mass volume of fire; the missiles are $150K each. That's why the Ukrainians are shooting cheap Grad and Smerch rockets to do the overwhelming while the GMLRS does the precision strike on the intended target. If you look at the Russian MLRS systems, they all have dozens of rockets on the truck, but HIMARS only holds six. With great precision, you don't need many missiles to make the hit, the volume of fire is only to protect the expensive high precision missile, and that volume can be supplied from the old Soviet systems much more cost-effectively.
They use Tor M2 system
just wait till Ukraine starts using the M270s that have just been confirmed inside the nation. Those use the same rocket clips that the HIMARS use, except they have double the capacity. So with one system Ukraine could fire 12 rockets at one target if needed!
@@Rin-qj7zt There is a high precision HIMAR missile (ATACMS) that is large enough to limit the launcher to 1x missile (2x from the M270), but the system has other missile options that can have up to 6x missiles (12x from the M270).
@@Rin-qj7zt even in the videos from Ukraine you can seem them launching multiple rockets
As a software developer I confirm, sometimes changing a label on a button takes two week hell of a work.
It should not with a decently designed system
maybe it would be easier to just paint the new label onto everyone's computer monitor? Your welcome for that little tip btw, outside the box thinking is why they pay me the big bucks.
@@dougb5028 You are assuming that the military, any military, has decently designed programs. Most militaries have trouble deciding on a format for a Powerpoint presentation. Yet alone actually contracting software developers to design a foolproof program.
Only websites because web tech is broken. It does not take two weeks to change a button on a desktop or mobile app.
@@kirishima638 Worked on Android apps some time ago (I mean Java environment, not an Ionic), same issues appeared here. Otherwise I had to agree with you, web is broken. Development teams working here usually lack of understanding of software development basics, and that is super sad.
Great info,Ryan. Now I feel well informed. You definitely answered some questions for me.
That was a very well done, very well researched, and marvelously demonstrative video. I will sub to you Sir, and thanks for the great content! Also - I am so happy that this is why the tide might turn!
This is so interesting and enlightening. Love it when you do these videos to help a layman make sense of things like this
I always love the way you present intel in such a concise yet effective manner. If it weren't for the fact I'd watched your channel since you started covering this war, I'd still know you were in the service just by the way you present information as clearly and quickly as feasible. I think that mixed with breaking down complex ideas into bite-sized chunks (as I imagine most tech guys do for clients, though I could be wrong) is why your channel is so engaging, and why it's such a threat to the Russian propaganda machine. Keep it up, McBeth!
So true. This is easily one of the best channels on the military situation in Ukraine, and Ryan always does a great job of explaining things that probably would zip right past most folks. I love this channel!
MR.MCBETH LIKE HOW YOU OPERATE YOUR CHANNEL YOUR EXPERIENCE ABOUT ANYTHING THAT HAS TO DO WITH WAR IS VERY WELL EXPLAINS 👌AND EASY TO UNDERSTAND DON'T CHANGE THE FORMULA AND THE GREAT WORK THAT YOU DO 👍THANK'S COMMENT FROM CHICAGO...
I've been looking for such explanation. Thank you!
The Moskva the Russian capital ship that was sunk by two subsonic Neptune anti ship missiles had up to 64 S300s yet the Neptunes slipped right through. Theres no reason to believe that it would be able to intercept supersonic HIMAR rockets.
Maeby? There were a couple of other possible reasons for why they were able to hit the Moskva, ranging from subpar crew training, to the radar being used to keep an eye on something else, in another direction from where the neptunes were coming from
@@SiJCortex88 If I had to bet it would be sloppiness and incompetence, just typical Russian. 🙂
I dont think that conclusion can be drawn from a single episode, it might just have been a lucky coincidence. It should be technically able to intercept the rocket, but I imagine s300 missiles arent that much cheaper, so best they can hope for is a "draw", also no SAM has a 100% interception rate, so some rockets would get through. In every case its a net loss for Russia as long as Ukraine receives supplies
Might be ship related. I doubt the ship was properly crewed. I doubt the crew was properly trained. I doubt the system(s) needed were in good condition. Its a old ship designed and built for a navy with way more resources. I can't see how it would arrive this side of the colapse of the USSR in anything close of a state compared to new. I certainly would have been putting more resources into the smaller newer better ships.
Yup.
Knowing their subpar crew training, outdated software/electronics, and more, its prolly not too difficult
That's a really insightful analysis, Ryan. Appreciate it. It sounds like we have the going in assumption that these high velocity targets can be intercepted with something equivalent to the Patriot system. Is that a foregone conclusion that Russians have the capacity to intercept fast moving targets. Particularly when the himars are set up in the smaller six rocket configuration?
They can do it, but who knows how long they'll take to start doing it. He brushed on all the points of why they aren't yet. There's also the point that Russian military leaders are always hesitant to admit they're doing poorly, or are in need of measures to counter a threat. They're always under threat of being suddenly fired and vanishing (or killed) for not doing what they were told to do, even when they failed to do it to no technical fault of their own. That's why you'll see mass graves of their vehicles in choke points. No one wants to run in fear of what their "friendlies" will do to them for failing.
@@Rafael_Fuchs you think it’s a good idea to make the enemie wiser ?
@@sunnypedaal I severely doubt they'd take anything to heart from western media, let alone some random Australian dude on YT. Lol
Ryan: Another great presentation. Keep up the good work.
That’s was interesting and educational ! Thank you for enlightening us non-military types .
So HIMARS is literarly the weapon equivalent to "We do a little bit of trolling".
Part of the strength of Himars is that they can be launched from a long distance and the high mobility of the system. The issue with trying to pair this with cheaper other rockets would be syncing them up.
When the Ukrainians first fire at the same target with the M777 and shortly afterwards with HIMARS, only Putin is allowed to see the radar screen. ;-)
@@UndSieBewegt LOL
They might already combine that, as the Himars is destroying important targets, some cheap grad missiles won't make a difference. Even if russia would be able to shoot them down they would adjust strategy again, happy to see these rockets get thru the "amazing" russian air defense lol.
You are incredible with your knowledge and explaining stuff so we can understand. Thank you.
good explanation. glad himars gives an edge. hope this terrible conflict will be led to a good conclusion. hope the world can really come together and keep on doing the right things. many challenges. godspeed to all!
You reminded me of a time a while ago when I was among a group of retired military people gathered for a hobby (sailing). As we introduced ourselves at the start of a class, the guy before me was retired Air Force and he proudly told the rest of us that his specialty was radars. I was next, and I said my job was (Army) "Radar Killer."
That was only a small part of my job which was Signals Intelligence in general, but the radar guy didn't appreciate it AL ALL. No sense of humor.
We Radar specialist love our toys ( occupation hazard ;) )
@@yaronk1069 I don't blame you. It is always weapon - counter weapon/system-counter system. From my point of view, I love radars as targets because they have to shout HERE I AM and wait for the echo saying HERE I AM from their target. ;-)
@@CaudilloSilovik Very true, Radars are homing beacons, if it wasn't for this who would need "Radar Specialists". That is how we bring the bacon home ;-)
Maybe true, but neither specialist exists without the other. The only way radars can be protected from anti-radar technology like ARMs is if they are tested against them. You don't want to be doing that on the fly. :-)
@@bruh41232 That must be why the guys who do have to do that ON THE FLY have a motto. It is THE JOB YOU DON'T WANT TO HAVE.
The Tor or Pantir system was on that Navy ship where the Harpoon hit it 2x. It never shot at that nor did the S300/S400 off shore
Sea-skimming missiles are always hard to intercept. In perfect conditions, Moskva for example had to get those, but ye even Ukraine will make sure conditions aren't perfect ;-)
Russian radars are notoriously poor at detecting low flying targets, it’s difficult to filter out the clutter. Although as to why it didn’t shoot at all, ever, is anyones guess. Even old Soviet radars should have on paper been able to detect it at a certain point.
My best guess is poor communication, and training, not a hardware issue.
Hi Ryan, Thanks for detail Pro. explanation. Respect.
The Himars rockets are guided missiles going at 3000km/hr, so it will hit its target 2-4mins. They have fins and can change path. Also consider that when russian radar has first detected them they are pretty high up and otw. The russian radar has to get a few radar reports on a missile to know the missiles speed etc and determine if to target it. Then it has to orient and launch its missile. The s-400 missile just does not the time to do that.
I just think it's hilarious how much russia has propagandasized their s300 s400 systems and putin was guaranteed it could easily intercept HIMARS rockets specifically- not to mention all the countries russia duped into buying the system as well...im sure the s400 developer will randomly of decided to commit "suicide" here soon like anyone else that hasn't lived up to putins expectations. Sure the cancelled order list is building.
they would need like a CIWS or something to hand off the data too for intercept but like he said its more attractive that way too
It 100% does. If it knows there is a military headquarters near by they know that’s where it will hit and intercept it 7000-8000 feet before its able to hit
Excellent presentation Sir. You do a great job of explaining things in layman’s terms.
He's good at talking/teaching to the layman without watering it down and still staying very techical. Hard thing to do. Kinda like a military Bill Nye
@@mrcmoes Can't wait for ryan to change his content from military to 'gender is a spectrum'.
@@mrcmoes Why insult the man like that?
@@TheSiprianus Just like how the gender spectrum is science he could start stalking about dont ask dont tell or trans people in the military. But I dont hes going to change fields.
🤔 The S300 and the S350 and special S400 were going to intercept every projectile the West sends. They were going to, but they decided to save themselves for the Alaskan bald eagle flock. Assault penguins not an issue, as they don't fly.
wat
good god this comment is gold lol.
@@dangerous8333 What's the matter? FSB got you pushing too many pencils?
Your videos are the best for knowledge and understanding these systems and tactics. Love it
Great video. Very informative. Thanks.
I was 14E in the Army and I was guessing something similar. The system isn't recognizing HIMARS rockets as TBMs. There simply wouldn't be enough flight time to get the OK to fire. With Patriot it was possible to adjust some settings and get the system to fire at an abnormal target like this BUT that's a decision made well above the operators head. I assume the S400 is similar.
5:23 - that's something similar hezbolah did when firing rockets to israel some time ago (fired over 5000 rockets in around 11 days). They would try to overwhelm iron dome by firing a ton of less powerfull rockets and then fire the big rockets later which enables some to get through, this only works if the defender fires all its interception missiles (which is unlikely to do). Generally any defender that has a brain will see where the rockets will impact, if it's not going to impact a important area they just let it land there, if it's going to blow something up that you want to protect then see if you can intercept without using iron dome (like the C-RAM) and then use iron dome if there no other option
Thanks a lot for the content! As an amateur one is happy to find good explanations.
Brilliant video, Ryan! Thank you so much!
Maybe Ryan included this in his analysis sub rosa, but just due to its relative size, a HIMARS rocket should have a much smaller radar return than a manned fighter jet. Consequently, it would not show up on the radar until it is already seconds from impact. With only 2 minutes flight time, one can imagine that HIMARS would hit its target before the Russians can even launch an anti-missile missile, if its radar signature is small enough. Ryan, when do you think the Russians know a HIMARS has been launched?
he explained that RUssian s-400 radars can see it right from the start.. The problem is not detection ,but saturation and diferentiation. when many missiles launched at same time ,to distinquish which one is which , this can be corrected by a software update but takes time , so the computer automatically give priority to Himars signal.. they are not stealthy at all. and Pantsir defenses can even see the themal signal ,and intercept it , but like he said , would require RUssia to deploy more air defenses in the rear. Time will answer all doubts about their long term performance ,once Russia update their software.
Small does not mean it can't be seen. Radar can be tuned / filtered to display only objects of x size or larger. The speed and elevation are what would set it apart from other objects.
There has been alot of friendly fire incidents on the Russian side, because the branches werent /arent communicating well, they were probably gunshy
Thank you for these vids. Very helpful!
Very interesting topic, nice and easy to follow explanation. 10/10
Always great content!! On your way to 1m no problem.
I think the main conclusion we can all get from here is that the advantage of HIMARS is in the current time window.
If this is the period in the conflict that Ukraine started using the HIMARS system, then this is exactly the time period that Ukraine needs it (supply) to be the most intense.
Probably, the initial suply of 12 units followed by some other regular suplies through time, may not be the best solution. The best solution is the suply, as soon as possible, of most amount possible closest to the number of the units that were planned on the long term.
Congratulations Ryan, good research as usual. Specially valuable the fact that you show us how to control an S400 from your own bedroom.
This was very helpful, thanks!
Thank you for the videos Ryan. As a Ukrainian as much as this war is nothing but devastation and destruction to Ukraine I'm glad it's at least allowed people like you to be able to showcase your talent of teaching. Thanks m8.
As ukrainian soldier I can confirm that HIMARS changed a lot on a battlefield
+
ANYTHING WILL CHANGE
YOU DREAM
We are with you bro. Even if you aren’t a soldier, slava ukraini!
@@joeyyc8515 thank you) A am a member of a medical unit. We're now om the east of Ukraine. And we really feel your support! And it means much more than you may think!
Yes ukrain get more bombing and lossing area
Awesome video brother, love what your doing. Keep it up.
Thanks dude. That was very informative.
Another issue is hitting an ammo storage for missile defence systems. Even if the ammo dumps store enough for one day, those need to be moved to another position and refilled.
This is pretty interesting
that can be fixed easily with creativity...
Ryan, I appreciate your time, effort, and extensive research to explore challenges like this in the modern battlefield. Your videos are always very impressive and well thought out. Slava Ukraine!!! 🇺🇦🇺🇸
the guy is on american military industrial complex payrol it seems the way he is praising obsolete objects that were wiped out recently by ruf forces.brokering resupply,
Thanks for the explanation.👍
Finally one on UA-cam who understands how much work and time goes into an update.
"Russia may be (able to) negate this by a software update or by training." Two definite strengths of the Russian military, I'm sure. 🤣🤣🤣
Maybe if HImars copied the flight profile of a Boeing 777, the russian BUC and S-300 S-400 SAMs might be able to shoot them down
They probably can have the "hit-to-kill" problem...like Patriot during desert shield/storm. Because i tink a nearbye blast fragmentation hit has just a slight chance to damage vital parts of the missile. Most of the object is the burned out rocket motor and that can take it without disabling the missle.
not that easy
Awesome vid Ryan, keep it up.
Cool video man! Thanks for making it
Very well explained.
Most Counter battery radar works best with high angle of attack and slower (comparatively) munitions. We had multiple 240mm, 122mm and other seemingly large rockets hit out FoB and CoPs with almost no radar warning. while 60mm mortars were tracked so extremely accuratly.
Depends on the terrain. Rockets are the strongest, when you have objects, like buildings littering the vincinty and obscuring low flyinh objects.
Thuank you for your insights,Ryan!You make it all sound so easy!
Great explanations. Thank you.
Army vet here, My forte was Electronic Warfare specifically RADAR and telemetry as a 98J. Having a TS/SCI clearance I was well up on Soviet technology, its deficiency and their propaganda tout how great it was. Ryan is pretty much spot on in his analysis. As far as the Russians being able to upgrade the software for their RADAR systems to counter HIMARS…I’m not so sure. If it were our systems, yeah no problem, they’re designed that way. Russia with their old Soviet mind set, not so much. Then they have other problems. After the fall of the USSR they had a massive brain drain to much more lucrative positions in other countries, across all fields including software engineers. Does Russia have good, maybe really great programmers? Yup. Are they working for the government? Nope. They’re either in the private sector or in the much more profitable criminal arena. This war has confirmed what I’ve thought, that Russia now is far worse off than the Soviets due to the massive corruption throughout their society from the oligarchs to the politicians to the military hierarchy to the civilian sector. I’d toss in the criminal side but they’re working hand in hand with the previously mentioned and is what facilitates the corruption. So no, I don’t think they’re going to be able to upgrade their S-400 or any other RADAR reliant system to counter the HIMARS any time soon if ever.
Thank You for Your Service, Sir!!!
I was a 98J too.
It seems unlikely that a system that age, from Russia would even be fully programmable. There is likely to be as much direct ttl as possible. It would make sense you should be able to update tracking and display and general HID with firmware. But consider also its probably a physical prom.
Also 100% chance Systems related to actual tracking and identification are in fact discrete ttl even American systems for psr remained predominantly discrete ttl until the late 80's.
I retired in 1999 from the Army but keep up with most of the new equipment but I didn't know what a HiMARS was untill last week. I was at gate six in Grafenwöhr and a young CPT explained it to me as an MLRS on a truck chassis. So I said it's like a 50cal. You can put it on an APC or on a deuce and a half.
Thank you for your hands on insights 👍
If any wants to see how effective Russian/Soviet made air defense is, go watch footage of the recent Armenian Russian made sam sites getting blasted to bits by Azerbaijan Bayraktar drones. Those Russian SAMS are not as effective as advertised.
Exactly what I said. Pretty much all Russian stuff is being exposed
Bayraktars fly at really low altitudes and are used at close range. SAMS are not invincible, this isn't star wars. you can destroy American SAMs by getting real close to them and firing short ranged missiles.
In the Ukraine the Bayaktar drones were effective at first but then they learned and shot down many.
In Yugoslavia 1999 Old Sovjet S125 systems from 1970 shot down some cruise missiles like the tomahawk and NATO had 100% air superiority and that old SAM has a range of 30km maximum and 15km in height so a well trained crew should do better with much better SAM systems.
No weapon is indestructible and there are many factors like experience, tactics etc.
Crew competency is also a major factor. It takes 18 months to train on S400. The system is not automated like ours, it requires more crew input.
Thank you for explaining!
Really great insight. Thank you. First video of yours I've watched and I'm now a subscriber
HIMAR missiles can also maneuver with it's GPS.
So short response time for AA.
Small object.
Flyes fast (Mach 2.5)
Can make maneuvers along flight path & change interdiction point.
New ATACMS might even have radar jamming capabilities...
Very minor course changes. There are no sharp corners at mach2+
A ruZZian radar operator sees a bounch of rockets being fired.
They arent aren't heading towards his protection area. So no stress.
All of a sudden 8 missiles break off in midflight and changes direction.
They are now 40km away, traveling 3000km/h. It's 48s to impact...
If ATACMS will surely do the same trick. Hide in mass long range ballistic missiles and then break off.
Reducing the reaction time for any SAM operator to make a decision and get a S300 to intercept.
Wouldn't be surprised if US managed to fit a radar jamming into the ATACMS. Then 1 ATACMS would appear as 10 missiles and different places. 1 ATACMS attack could empty an entire S300 battery if ruZZians panic... if the target was Sevastopol or Crimean bridge be sure the radar operator will just spam the fire button.
@@mytech6779 Not really sharp sure but still makin it hard to get.
Also, if Russia is able to patch their radars for the "HIMARS" rockets, there would still be an option for the US and others to start producing rockets with e.g. variable flight profile. I think this could be achieved by simply air braking the missile during flight (at the expense of range of course), if the thrust is not variable.
Imagine having finally updated everything only for the enemy to make an tiny adjustment, only to have one years worth of work wasted for you. And oh no you ain’t fixing that thingy in two days noooo you gonna need to take the same time again.
Himars already has a variable flight profile. It isn't purely ballistic.
@@billthomas7644 sure. But in this case the filtering under discussion was related to flight speed. I'm not an expert on avionics or rockets, so pardon me if I used the wrong / too generic term. 😅
@@billthomas7644 And what happens if Ukraine eventually gets the forthcoming new rocket with the improved motor, better aerodynamics and rear mounted control fins? Up to 150km range, yet another different flight profile and probably a multi-mode seeker than can hit moving targets.
I’m sorry but tbh when I first thought saw your videos I didn’t think highly of you. But now I love seeing your confidence and personality shine through your still very educational videos. Keep it up I can’t wait to see how far you g
Nicely explained, thank you
I saw some video when himars and bm grad shoots together and bm grads missle tricks russian anti missle system or something like that so himars missiles hit the targets and they cant shoot it down
Barkeep, "I'll have a draft HIMARS, please." One thing the Russians do need to deploy: Extra pants and briefs... they must get awfully dirty -- and fast! -- when the Russian soldiers see these tracks coming in and know what they're in for.
by the time you realise they're dirty, you're dead.
This gave me some good ideas. Thank you.
Love the hands-on look on the Buk console. Thanks!