Even with education, it is extremely hard to get a good job nowadays. There are so little great jobs and too many people that are well educated. So in other words, a lot of people nowadays are "Teds" that will become like Bills.
That's because people are getting useless educations. You can get a better-paying job by going to a trade school than most 4-year degrees. There's a desperate need in the world for tradesmen and an oversaturation of self-entitled college grads. Of course, most trades are going to be replaced by the robots in the next few decades, so...
Exactly. Automation only creates labour market polarisation not a more diverse labour market. Think the Google hiring model of only hiring those who are smarter than you. Ultimately, corporations only get smaller and more specialised, it doesn't matter that we put more people into the higher education system, corporations only want the best of the best.
9:56 Guaranteed minimum income If we are moving into an economy that's heavy on technology and light on labor---and we are. Then we have to consider some more radical interventions, for example something more radical like a guaranteed minimum income.
I think guaranteed minimum income is a stop gap. I think we are going to have to rethink money, capitalism, etc. It is going to be a LCE for the majority of people on this planet...a paradigm of epic proportions. Given how slow we are moving on climate change...it is going to hurt a lot of people too.
Matt Orfalea basic universal income or guaranteed minimum income don't necessarily change anything, in fact, one you introduce the wage, you can then continue to destroy public services and open up the door for privatisation. People don't need free education or healthcare - they can pay of it themselves. But of course a basic income will never be enough, and if capitalism is good at anything then it is in the raising of prices to meet gains in expendable income. Everyone will get UBI, and therefore the equality gap will remain the same, you will still have 150,000 people (less than one percent) owning the majority of the worlds wealth. If we want technology to benefit everyone, then everyone must literally share in the productivity created by these new means of production - and the private ownership of the means of production prevents this. Unfortunately it is also fundamental to capitalism and why a worker can never be paid the actual value of his work.
+Deniro Beckham, in some instances some companies are already sharing in the productivity gains created. Look at GM. Every $1 Billion the company makes provides $1,000 to every blue collar labor worker who produced the cars. Look at Alaska. Since the 1970s, they have incorporated in their constitution that a basic income is to be provided to their residents at the revenue expense of the local oil companies. The bottom line is, to whom much is given, much is required. This country has created massive wealth over the 240+ years of its existence, often times at the peril of citizens that were integral in the production of that wealth. Socialism, capitalism aside....how is this model fair? What GM and Alaska are doing are providing supplemental incomes to all that are hardworking Americans who try to make ends meet. The system needs radical changes to meet todays demands and realistic economic conditions. That hardcore capitalist approach is slowly becoming obsolete because it only benefits the 150,000 or so people that you reference. That's a fraction of 1%. The other 99 have to "figure it out for themselves" or are often told they don't work hard enough. Rigged!
At the 11:40 mark, "we have to do better than this, we can't keep turning out Bills" was such a great quote. Very good presentation Andrew. It really makes you think about how the education must be shifted in all areas in the world. Those jobs they will be promised as kids will be gone as young adults.
@@reprogrammingmind IT jobs including programmers will eventually also become obsolete by these developments. It's only a matter of time (but likely decades) before a self learning A.I. will be capable of producing more reliable code then a human could. An example of how better computers and programs can improve programs are the fact that modern compilers and development environments will do a lot of the tedious code checking and code optimizations for the programmers. And they get better at it every few years. Programmers get much more informative info on errors a compiler finds and get a list of warnings of possible problems and mistakes that the compiler picked up. The optimization for a program to run better on certain hardware taking branch prediction and instruction pipeline length into account is also done by most compilers instead of a programmer having to figure out how to save a few instruction cycles by placing them in a certain order or trying to get rid of an instruction by restructuring an algorithm, like was essential to get a program running on a low power machine like the 80's 8-bit micro computers.
well, you can either sit on UA-cam and complain about the inevitable, or you can inspire your kids to take a more focussed approach to tech so they don't get left behind in the future.
Now you did not pay attention, he actually provided a solution: guaranteed minimum income. This sounds crazy, but it is really not. At least here in Europe all countries provide social security, you almost cannot get enough means to live - a guaranteed minimum income is just calling it a different name. I think people knowing that nothing bad happens if they do not work, is important. It is the only way to make starting a new company a reasonable decision despite its high risks.
I read Andrew's book and it opened my mind clearly. Engineering in all domain will be in high demand to support those machines in doing their job correctly. We need a revolution in our school first. People like Bill must have the right for great education as much as Ted. Innovation will be the next big thing. There is so much thing we have to discover, because not only we will have to find solution for overpopulation, but we will need to change radically the way the world think. Money and power should not be what everyone wants. Ideas and competition on finding new inventions to advance the human race in a good way should be.
***** Well imagine with me if there was no such thing as money. I would pretty much get as close to equality as possible and would get rid of the biggest distraction to equality and power.
+Samuel Bellerose Except that another machine will do most of that, so not as much as you think, certainly not enough for anywhere near todays employment unless a tidal wave of non-jobs hits us which is very likely. Get ready for the great yawn.
What good is abundance when a small group of people are monopolizing money right now? I see a very polarized future if things don't change radically and fast. The powers that be have always feared that the working class have too much free time. If the current economic climate persists and people have more free time to learn how the world is actually structured and stacked against them, how can this NOT lead to massive conflict and social unrest? These guys rarely talk about income inequality or the current power structure. We'll see I'm 5 min into it. All very interesting except Congress is full of cowardice and serve the status quo who resist change. We may do the right thing AFTER a major calamity in the market place. When is the last time Congress did something that affected sweeping change that benefited the average citizen in a positive way?
+TheFinnmacool There's gonna be a rough transitional period, and we've already started it. There will be some lost generations of people who are in limbo until society can adjust... but it will be the shock/scare that forces people/schools/governments to change things for the new age.
I concur. This is why there have been radical talks about Universal Basic Incomes for all. This concept was talked about since the 60s, and some countries have adopted this practice already. When you compound the economic conditions with massive debt, loss of jobs AND automation, it becomes conceivable that UBI is inevitable. How are people going to make ends meet? People are already struggling with this now.
TheFinnmacool: There is a fine line between servitude under a tyrannical government and providing a service for all. Social Security is a service for all and has been for 70+ years. Healthcare has now recently become a service for all. In both examples, there has not been any evidence of people becoming subservient (more or less) to the U.S. government. UBI, as it will likely not happen anytime soon, can serve many purposes for different people. For some, it will provide a supplement to their current income levels, to others it may be their only source of income. Either way, everyone benefits--not just the rich, poor or in between. Some may suggest that this would create a disincentive to get people to actually work. Let's face it, even with today's limited social welfare programs, that does not create an incentive for a person to work especially in an economy where many jobs are never coming back. When automation is factored in, there would be more of a demand for such a system. The idea would be to provide a long-term stimulus [to the people] that would foster greater output or investment to prop up the sluggish economy. Consumer spending has not been consistent, drastically impacting GDP. When the government places more money in the hands of people, people will spend more. No tyranny here.
It's scary to be a young person (I'm in high school) in this age were jobs are at risk of being so unstable even with the growing senior population that are leaving their jobs. I think it's also extremely fascinating though to be living in an economy/world that is changing so much with ideas like basic income. I can't wait to see what happen and I'm so grateful to be young enough to see it happen (provided nothing unfortunate happens to me but I don't want to jinx it).
@cristle write Seeing your comment 4 years later. Did you go to college? Did you get a hefty student loan? Do you have a job that you hate but had to get something to get money to feed yourself and maybe your kids?
This new ''technological age'' sounds amazing thats what humanity needs to free itself from boring repetitive jobs and to live a fulfilled lives in a society with abundance BUT it will only work if everyone has access to resources not just a few ultra rich folks, whether thats in a form of unconditional guaranteed basic income or a resource based economy without a monetary system like The Venus Project! I'm afraid otherwise this civilization just like many before us will collapse if the inequality doesn't get addressed ASAP!
LOL@ Venus Project..... No Thanks!!! All these people saying that robots are gonna take over and push us out of all forms of work etc....hahaha!! It's fucking Ridiculous and in such obvious ways that it can Not and will Not happen like that at all....it's embarrassing that people don't see why it's Ludicrous!! Shows how naive and out of touch with Reality some people are!! Sure, robots will continue to advance, continue to make human jobs obsolete, continue to be integrated into our lives to make things easier and to control us....BUT it will NEVER go down like the people in all these articles and videos have said.....and that's a guarantee, not just a prediction. It's laughable that people can't see it!! You almost have to be really Smart to be capable of believing something so Dumb!!! LOL
AI may well answer that the solution is the elimination of those with no utility to preserve the resources consumed by their existence for other purposes.
That's an infinitely difficult question with an impossible solution!! The computers will invariably decide it would be Much Much easier just to exterminate the humans.... "problem Solved"!!
Funny how people assume computers will inevitably 'solve the problem' by exterminating humans... computational logic is not the same as human logic, which is heavily flawed and biased (often negatively) But one thing that is true is that it will need far more data than we have today, a better understanding of how to read that data, and the answer will likely change as those prior two precepts change.
It's interesting to hear you summarising your Montessori experience: to go out there and to know the world. As a nursery teacher, that's exactly what I want for my students to experience. Nearly six years have passed since this speech has been available here, and the trend is exactly as you describe here. The next question for me is: how to educate children so they find their way through the new economy (name industry 4.0)? What kind of vision and skills they'd need to have?
8 years from this video, and cars are driving themselves. Socio-economic crisis are in rising trend. Terminations and unemployment rate are increasing. On the other side, new jobs are being introduced with augmented-reality. Automation is ensuring the production in the absence of human-labour "COVID19". Not to mention other automations which are integrated in our society and daily life. Respect to Andrew for having such insights.
8 years later and no cars are not driving themselves. Where have you seen a car driving itself without a person behind the wheel? I drive 60 miles a day on the highway I’ve never seen one
No, cars are not driving themselves, that's bullshit. Besides, there is an ongoing (and growing) trend in Europe to create car-free cities to become more public transport and pedestrian-friendy. The reality is that we need far less cars than we already have to create a truly sustainable future. Not that electric car dystopia that Elon Musk is envisioning.
@@Atombender These are two different aspects that you brought. On regards to self driving it is not restricted to Elon Musk empire only. There are other companies which are developing self-driving cars. There are cars which are already deployed. On the other hand, personally I hate cars and wish the society will be transformed to friendly public transportation or depending on bicycles. I understand it is a bold move, but yea.
@@sa5er1234 If you build a city infrastructure that doesn't rely on cars, then you won't need many self-driving cars. As for the second part of your post, this is exactly how European cities like Barcelona and Paris have been or will be redesigned. Of course we will still need cars in the future but much less so than we pretend to do now. Personally I don't see this happening in the US, given how corrupt the politicians and how powerful the car and oil lobbies are.
Printing X trillions of dollars yearly for corrupted socialist's programs starting to fail? Who woulda guess throwing money at problems would create a thinner and thinner margin when nothing actually gets solved???
@@Pwnerest We're basically living a milder version of Russia and Lebanon. It's not any one type of policy-making, any one politician, a party, or interest group. It's the systematic anchoring of the 1% to stay at the top 50 years-in-the-making by shafting the lower 75% and those most underprivileged in the population. Prime example: *ua-cam.com/video/wFpfYTYupKA/v-deo.html*
Just means people are likely going to be moving into creative fields. This starts with schools. Getting out of the factory work-like schedule and into a more free-thinking creative environment. As much as people think machines will take ALL the jobs, that's what people have said for a long time. They certainly WILL take most of current jobs. However people change and adapt. A hundred years ago most people were in farming. That changed to manufacturing. It's moving to service sectors. When those disappear, it'll be something else (content providers, entertainment, sports, creative stuff etc).
I love it - we're all going to have more leisure time. That was predicted when I was 12. I'm 60 now. Yeah, we have more leisure, if you call being unable to find a job that pays more than minimum wage leisure. I love it!
It you cant find a job that pays more than minimum wage. Then you are an imbacile and therefore do not deserve to have a job that pays more than minimum wage
I love this topic. Not because I think it's a good or bad thing where we are going but because it's real, it's a huge challenge and I am glad that I am not the only one thinking about this stuff. We are making ourselves obsolete and it is going to force us to change our ideologies on a vast scale. I think conservative minded people are going to struggle with this the most because they are resistant to progressive ideas and are generally slow to move forward. That is not a complete knock against them because I use to be one myself and I do think they help to slow things down rather than rush into things when we are not entirely ready. I appreciate a nice balance and embrace everything in moderation and I think conservatives help in that respect but I do think they are going to struggle with the fast changing times ahead. I could be wrong but that is my perspective on the subject and I am confident I am right. We need ideas and understanding by everyone to enhance the human race.
7891Kman yea huh, I thought also that no one knows what coming our way, I've been awaken for about 2 months, when inadvertently seeking the topic of black holes it led me to AI , robotics and our future. But everywhere I go, people seem oblivious to the future.
As a tutor, I would like to say: Anyone can learn anything. Sure, some people will learn slower than others, but there's only so much we can do for that. The same technology that everyone is afaid of is slowly making physical (and many mental) disabilities irrelevant. It's also reducing the physical work that humans need to perform, leaving more time for studying. Even mentally unfit people will become artists and writers.
The push for everyone to have a college degree is 90% marketing to keep cash flow in the college system and 10% because the market needs the personnel. Yes there are those with pointless degrees trying to find work but there are also a large number of people with on-task degrees that can not find work because the positions are not there.
Milton Friedman called minimum wages a form of discrimination against the low-skilled; and it is why he saw topping up the incomes of the working poor with public subsidies as a far more sensible means of alleviating poverty.
Even Andrew underestimates the impact. With no Bills to buy products, the Teds won't be rich either because there won't be a market to sell to. Also, mechanization is going to take the jobs of a lot of the Teds, too.
Teds already sell to primarily other Teds. Bills can't afford Ted's products and services. So if the Bills don't reeducate and evolve from what they were, there will be nothing for them.
In the past radical changes lead to revolution. Not only the French revolution. My guess... There is enough for everyone. Perhaps some will have to share. The new work will have less or nothing to do with what we call work today. And if so no to work combined with lonivity will mean that we will bored forever in a meaningless universe.
David Atkins I expect eventually the Bill's to become the Ted's through education or end up homeless if we don't introduce something like a mincome (universal basic income) that allows the Bill's to educate themselves. I don't expect that any time soon within the US though, since that is considered socialism, and socialism is 'bad'. But I do expect it to happen in West Europe, and Scandinavian countries.
First off, teaching is one of the most important jobs there is. We are currently facing the effects of years of emphasizing so-called higher education over providing a solid base education in primary school. A large number of people end up having to pay for courses in college that use to be provided by the time you graduated high school. Second I know many people with technical degrees that are not able to find jobs in their field.
It never ceases to amaze me how highly educated people like this man constantly ignore the fact that 50% of the population of the world is of below average intelligence and will always be so, suffering in some way, shape or form as a result. That and Einstein's assertion that once computers start thinking for us, humanity will willingly become dumber and dumber. The pattern in history is this: New technologies force change in work and the location of said work, causing groups previously separated by geography and culture to collide. The upper 10% work together and innovate, the next 40% debate and seek power by manipulating the lower 50% (tyrants often appear from this group during these times). The lower 50% clash until a new culture/hegemony is born. We have left behind the prosperity created by the industrial revolution and are now going into the next tumultuous stage in human evolution called the digital age. Cultures once separated (here in the US and abroad) are now in contact with one another in ways never before seen in history. UA-cam is a testament to this. Hang on, because it is going to be a long and bumpy ride before we come out the other end again only aggravated by the fact that most people won't want to learn or create, just be popular/famous/lazy/powerful as technology advances. Even changing education will not change this. People build character by providing for others and through hard work, not through having more leisure time to express themselves (only a very small group of intellectuals are capable of this). Oh, and if Kayne West runs for president (like he just announced) and wins because the lower 50% vote too, then I have a prediction for the future: Idiocracy.
First off, the elites will be taking new drugs that allow them (and their children) to actually be smarter (this already exists). Because they have the money to do this they will get the best new scientific positions. The rest of us will be forced to take jobs in the fields of Agrarian Work (that is, farming and wilderness control), Automated Systems Monitoring and Maintenance, a variety of leadership positions (so the blame can be placed somewhere when something breaks) and a whole host of new Politically Correct/Social Experiment jobs only previously seen in extreme tyrannical Communist regimes, whose sole purpose will be to control and monitor what everyone else does every moment of their lives to enforce "harmony" and "equality" among the masses. Of course entertainment and other media will also still be needed (like new software, games, music, "news" etc. even in competition with AI, at least for a while anyway). Apply today! Welcome to the future.
+Free Game Reviews Have you seen the latest agricultural methods and machines? lettuces practically plant themselves. dairy cows hardly ever see a human being. Entire warehouses with no human allowed in them churn out massive amounts of produce and only four waged humans in the entire chain of production. Google it.
+Free Game Reviews Yes, human beings are largely quite troubled neurological systems. But this can be changed, it's just a bundle of synapses and neurotransmitters that gives rise to our subjective experience. As we progress into the digital ages, people become more complacent and lost, but we can have some sort of unification. Nothing too complex. When did The People of any society get an impetus for rationality and humanism? Think Gandhi or Martin Luther King. If (1) we can make intellectualism and humanism a movement/norm, and (2) we declare a systematic rationally-deduced worldview, tackling problems such as the subjectivity of ethics; what do we really want at any given time and how do we know we won't regret doing or not doing something; the fact that we have misconceptions and we should always improve ourselves ("what is the basis for improvement? why?", we'll have to inquire and make sense of our whole world if we do not want to find ourselves as lost inconsiderate masses). The questions "why" and "how" are what make the ideals for discovery, humanism, science, good life, etc. You may say "ah, philosophy...", but the truth is we do need to ask these kinds of questions, because you see how our world is by not asking these. Now, it's also about how you make this appealing to the masses, or how to make it a thing. There's alot to consider, but I definitely see a solution. If not for first luring the masses into examining their own lives properly, then at least we need a somewhat more organized media for us considerate people where we could have an impact. Sorry to make it sound silly but at least 30-40% population unemployability is going to make massive ripples. Who will take the lead then? We'll have to. tl;dr Great change happens only with a massive great change of thinking. Now how do you build that?
For everyone interested in the this speech, I'd highly recommend researching Peter Joseph, the Zeitgeist Movement and their progressive plans for an RBE (Resource Based Economy).
Its good to think about practical applications for your degree BEFORE spending all the time and money getting it. Surprisingly few people actually do this. You may find you're better off without one at all.
Overall, it's actually a valid question. Many people are of the opinion that if it's humanly possible to escape the dirt, study hard to become a doctor or whatever, then everything is fine. They ignore that not everyone can become extremely well educated, or create a business or be very good at sports. In other words, we need a system where there's obviously incentive to work hard and achieve difficult goals, while you're not left to rot if you're just an average Joe.
We may need to make this guy emperor of earth for about 20 years, then release us back to a democracy of some kind in a much more enlightened and prepared state.
+Hokibukisa Maybe you were high, but you also had a vision. Probably e paragdigm shift is necessary. It may well be that a revaluation of art and culture is in place. It may well be that there will be more to be quality over quantity. Incidentally, no reason to make someone for 20 years, "emperor". That's a bad idea. :-)
I would like to add that I had mentioned more jobs in my video regarding this . It is important for those who are graduating and not sure what profession to study. I totally agree with you on this.
From 2:36 to 3:08, he says something about abundance being precisely what we want our economic system to provide, as if it should be completely obvious. I'm not too sure about that. What about sustainability? What about quality of life, which is measured by more than how much I can buy? What about peace? If abundance comes at the cost of sacrificing certain things, then I don't want it. Is he playing to the crowd, or doing some kind of rhetorical trick, or does he really mean that stuff?
gt jacobs In reality, capitalism, left to its own devices, will NEVER produce an abundance, as it is impossible to profit from it. We need new solutions to economic management, and simple patchwork like a UBI (universal basic income), may help with some of the greatest problems in the short - medium term, but will not enable us to solve all the problems that an alternative socio-economic system could. Example - Resource Based Economic Model
interesting concept, I feel there is some truth behind it. Revolving around the Educational system pumping out bills. I Graduated high school today, and it is safe to say that upwards of 70% of the graduates don't realize what sustainable income requires. Ted please upload more videos like this; on theory's and debatable topics!
It is SO refreshing to hear this fellow mention a basic income guarantee, and point out that it is championed not so much by the socialists, but by the likes of Hayek and Friedman. I've been touting that myself for years, and it seems like I am a lone voice. I cannot understand why more people are not aware of this idea, how it fixes a LOT of problems, and doesn't cost a dime more than we are currently spending on transfer income programs.
The most basic needs for human survival are air, water, and food. Take too much of water, for example, and you drown. Too much of technology has already made so many people unemployed. If most people become unemployed, who will buy the products? These people are so greedy that they only see their immediate personal gains. Their greed has made them forget that a vibrant economy is one where most people have disposable income/money to spend. No income, nothing to spend to buy their products. Corporate owners and executives don't see the threat that unemployment has for their businesses. They are too much in a hurry to make a fast buck, never minding the future generations, which may be the next one. And as usual, they look at GDP more than the living conditions of people.
The answer is simple. A citizens wage. Not now because it's not the time, but later. Pay a certain amount of money to everyone who is a citizen but does not have a job because of robotics..
But whats the point of giving Joe Average a job packing boxes when there is a machine that can churn out 100x his productivity? Just so Joe Average can get the latest cutting edge flatscreen TV after a few weeks? Thats really quite backwards if you ask me. Surely we know how to improve on this limiting idea.
comanxrabiotxverratixnecib Yes, except everyone will be living like Elysium, even the most poor. Since material poverty will lose its meaning once 3d molecular printing makes famine and social stratification obsolete.
Hahaha..... I ALWAYS wondered how Nightmare Marxist/Socialist Dictatorships were EVER able to convince large numbers of people to try out such stupid and clearly nonsensical ideas.....obviously, there is a steady and seemingly endless supply of Uninformed, Gullible people with No critical thinking skills just running around everywhere waiting for really Bad ideas to try!!!
I've been looking forward to that future for years. That society is so starkly different from our own that it is difficult to comprehend the difference.
Such a great talk! It's becoming more relevant to say that the change in the educational system will be radical once we realize it's not about information only, but also about connecting the dots between this information.
I think by Ford and Ruther's conversation, he's trying to illustrate the intrinsic problems that a more machine-dependent economy gonna bring to us, both the labour and the capital. But I didn't get the "computer becoming aware of printer" joke. Somebody pls help?
Suheti Lee, I think "computer being aware of printer" mean, in the past (even now) we need human to code or install programs, made computer known it already connected to printer, and it quite annoying, so computer and machines today are stupid than human. Don't panic they gonna steal our jobs.
Work with purpose is uplifting work without purpose is survival and drudgery, so great jobs become scarce with digitization and automation, will education reform create a more equal society and a better place? Who will commit and wants to see the status quo change? The question is always what’s in it for me and mine!
while automation systems provide abundance, humans will always have the unique ability of making something thats of high quality, and has sentimental value. for example, you can get a guitar built in a factory for about £100, but a hand crafted guitar will be worth more to the person and cost around £500. this is what people going through the education system have to understand; use your passion for whatever to create something no body else could create.
14:25 How can you have a better wage in the somewhat near future for people who are also being replaced by AI? I know some people wont like this but... Everyone should get a check in the mail for a life time. Just for being alive during an amazing era. Where there is no more work!☺
Well, that is certainly how they will dress up the LIE in order to sell it to you.... Trojan Horse style!! Don't have your mail forwarded to Utopia just yet.... LOL... Yeah, once we become useless eaters, I'm sure they will want to keep us all around just to give us the Easy Life of having everything we want without working or benefiting anyone.... Because they're real Kind-hearted, generous and Charitable like that....pffft
Barb Stoll I think that a vast porcentage of us will be expandable, most likely the human race will go through a cleansing system, been that we will not be important or of any value, any longer. The robots with AI and machines, will be more efficient.
I think its really a good thing. -Imagine having all your time to do whatever you are interested. -You could spend your life doing exactly what u want! -Machines could make whatever you need for cheap -And, because of all the spare time people would 'fix' the world (give people food and water/cure diseases like cancer and sort out major problems with all the spare time) The only problem is: where would the money come from....
It's funny that in the past society normally laughed at those who persued a career in the arts as opposed to a 9 to 5 cushy office job. Now it's probably never been a better time have a career in the arts.
He is putting to much faith in the the ability to educate those have talents unrelated to creative task or older individuals who ability to learn is unfortunately diminished (I can attest for myself slower recall, greater difficulty to store new facts/methods into long term memory) and ageism as well as drop in salary for those who have to start over in a new field. What older individual have is experience, which will be obsolete, but a reduced ability to quickly be trained into new fields.
In this future, there's no place for aging people in the workforce. Just a room in a Dementia facility or hospice, so money can be made off them before they die.
Hey thx. I'll check them all out for sure. I am familiar with McKenna and his psychedelic trips LOL. Mentioning earthships, I had a good friend a while back who lived in one and I stayed there overnite. It was really cool. I kind of forgot about it but yes they are very efficient, comfortable and futuristic. Another UA-cam personality I love to listen to is the late Western Zen Buddhist Alan Watts. Extremely brilliant and captivating concerning "spiritual" matters.
I don't necessarily propose any cohesive system. As long as there exists a system whereby one group-who commit capital- has control and ownership over another, larger group - who commit labour- this creates a class system. There are two options available to respond to this dilemma of private property over production, either taxation or collectivisation. I personally favour collectivisation and a more cooperative economy. This doesn't eliminate competition, it just means workers self management.
Even though we are able to make extremely sophisticated machines, it can never be as good as human in terms of decision making. When situation is extremely difficult and matter extremely complex, I doubt if machines will be able to make a wise decision. I am talking about wisdom and not intelligence. If we delegate all our works to machines, it will be catastrophic. The machines will not take decisions based on morality, empathy and kindness. It is for the world to choose what it wants - a happy peaceful society which values family and social ties or a society filled with funky machines which does not have feelings.
I honestly believe we romanticize things like morality and empathy. Also I feel we as humans are hugely arrogant in thinking that being able to think that only humans can think that way. Our brain is a biological computer. When we make decisions we take many factors into account at lightning speed, our conscious mind just doesn't realize all the processes that are happening. I think if properly factored in, machines would be able to make "empathetic" and "moral" decisions - like those laws of robotics. However, then ppl would think how that morality is artificial and it's not true kindness or something like that. Well....what do you think our morality stems from? It's accepted heuristics and processes our brain just kind of does. And I can't see how a machine can't do that, at least some day in the future. Us humans are always so vain in things we consider makes us human. I think things like our eukaryotic cells and larger frontal lobe size to brain size ratio makes us human moreso than "morality" which I'm pretty sure can be programmed when it comes down to it.
There's no difference between being a member of the Star Trek Enterprise and being a member of the Navy on a Submarine. Your day is regimented, you're stuck in a vessel, and a superior decides where you're going and what you'll be doing every single day of your life. It's not like a job. A job you can quit and go home. A Star Trek future is nightmarish. There's a difference between going to Disneyland and actually working there.
Isn't... isn't your computer aware of your printer? I mean, if you send something to print, your computer knows if there's a printer there or not. Your computer has conclusive evidence of the existence or non-existence of a printer... I would call that awareness. So should you start worrying?
You are aware that the word aware has different meanings I assume. Your computer has conclusive evidence of the existence or non-existence of a printer...I would call that a sort of "knowing" but not awareness.
curiousgeorge555 I wouldn't say "different" as much as "a range of" meanings. For example, my dog isn't aware that I have a job. But my dog would be described as having awareness. Now *self* awareness, I would argue, is a fairly human trait (and not all humans at that). I don't think two many animals (or machines) ponder their existence as much as the human race has/does.
It is better for humanity to accelerate automation and change capitalism to socialism as soon as possible. It would be better to start doing it yet in 1970. The more computers can replace humans the easier it would be for richest capitalists to fire all the extra people and kill them if they resist, leaving only worshipers and slaves from jungles. There would be no need for selling goods in such a system because robots can be adjusted to different needs making palaces, luxury and temples instead of goods of today. Accelerating automation would cause an immediate need for changing the social system, taking richest capitalists under control before they can damage humanity.
+deckuofm guess changing the type of taxation would help out too. Right now employers pay taxes for employees, therefore it is cheaper to invest in machines / computers to get the work done. Especially since they barely pay anything for the technology as they allocate the investment costs on the products/services - so the customer pays for. Would be better if the production itself would be taxed ... then the difference between human labor and machine production would be less At least what I think
+Stephanie Schmidt Many ways can be useful to automation. 01) Making education free (possibly with conditions) 02) Spreading information about real soviet socialism with its disadvantages and advantages 03) Spreading information about protecting the environment 04) Joining communist parties in big numbers (just to scare capitalists) 05) Various kinds of taxations can be good too, but people must know that it is for their wellbeing. 06) Giving guaranteed income (possibly with conditions) 07) Changing TV (making it more scientific)
The Internet of Things seems to be a marketing scheme designed to make us feel tech forward. Small changes in tech (like phones) that do NOT improve the quality of life, only the amount of debt you have keeping up with them.
So to simplify that would mean that every employee of a production company becomes an equal shareholder and there would be laws that forbid you from owning a goods producing company any more than that? Sounds better than the current system, but how do you propose to deal with the large difficulty and low incentive to start a new company in that sector and how would you stop service providers from dominating society?
remember, we live in times where water is not free, air is sold, and those, being clean getting more rare, and thus more valuable. Greed is a major factor to stop anything.
I think he's saying, this future will be full of tough challenges with no likes in past history before. But he is optimistic that we can address these problems and walk into a brighter future instead of a darker one.
Bill and Ted are the future... because in the future the only jobs available will be entertaining jobs. I mean for the common person. As skills get higher. But to me this is a opening to design a new way of life not based on money... but aimed at meeting the needs of the people, and protecting the people. In my eyes this could be a better way forward. But only if people want it.
"Tech kills middle-class jobs." Yah, it kills those jobs that can be automated. The solution is for people to gain more intelligence and skill sets that can not be automated."Bill vs. Ted"- This is exactly what happens if Bill does not gain the types of skill sets Ted has. Simply don't get left behind. Go to college or even simply use the internet to gain skills that can not be automated. The beauty of this is that the way to get out of Bill's situation is virtually free. You can gain many skills by using the internet which can be accessed via free Wi-Fi at a McDonald's or, if you don't even have a computer or smart-phone, you can access the computer at a local library. Education is becoming more and more accessible and making it easier for Bill to get out of his situation if he so desires.Regarding a guaranteed minimum wage, I still say no. The minimum wage should be $0.00. The solution to this economic issue is not a safety net, but more education. And, even more, it should be more privatized education and less government involvement in our lives. Government is often slow, inefficient, and ineffective. We've seen out declining public school system in America. The answer would be to bring more competition into the mix. Competition breeds higher quality and lower costs. Get government out of it and have parents chose what schools they want their kids to attend. This means schools must compete for the business of parents by producing higher quality education at lower costs.
+Zee Tee Not many people study productivity in government, insurance and banking. I do. Already there are far to much people for far te few jobs. It is happening. We do not see it yet. Most banks could easily reduce the number of employees by half.
+Jabal Deus In the 20th century jobs for farmers were creted in industry. And after that in banking and health. I see no new jobs arizing. Most new jobs are old jobs with new names.
***** "EVERYTHING eventually will be automated, understand?" Certain things like creativity and innovation can't be automated. Complex perception and manipulation, creative intelligence, problem solving, and social intelligence are all skills that are all virtually impossible to be automated. "in 50 years time EVERYTHING will be automated." In about 20 years, most everything else will likely be automated. "And humans will be machines, human race as you know it will become extinct and everyone will be plugged to the singularity. Got that? Ever watched Matrix the movie? pretty close to that." Now, you're getting into some pretty wacky fiction. If you're basing all this on a movie, I'd suggest getting your information elsewhere. Top neuroscientists says computers will never replicate the human brain and that the technological singularity is a bunch of hot air. The brain is not computable and no engineering can reproduce it. The idea of a technological singularity is fun to think about, but not reality. "Most jobs could be already gone by now, the only reason that hasn't happens yet is because of laws, regulations and legislation that is stopping these things to come quicker." Here, I do agree. Government regulation has slowed economic growth and technological innovation to the point that we're letting many catch up who we used to far surpass.
+John C In in 1970 nobody could imagine a computer would beat the best chess player on earth This what deep blue did about 10 years ago. I am not to sure technological singularity is nothing more than SF. Most jobs I know off do not need rocket scientist.
Jabal Deus Technology does advance, but there are limits to what it can do. A technological singularity is a bunch of hot air. Once technology automates pretty much every menial task, the only jobs left will be those which technology can not automate. Examples: creativity, innovation, complex perception and manipulation, creative intelligence, problem solving, and social intelligence. Rocket science is part of that, but there is plenty more. By the way, the more formal term for "rocket scientist" is "Aerospace Engineer." That is what I am currently majoring in. I want to design aircraft. Computers can aid in this, but they can never do it on their own. This requires most of those skill sets I gave as examples above. I call these human skills. A computer can be programmed to build an aircraft. But, you need 1) a programmer of the computer, 2) a designer of the computer, and 3) a designer of the aircraft that would be built by the computer. Everything else can pretty much be automated, eventually.
There's nothing more stupid than letting technology do everything people do. Aside from the fact that people will have no money to buy anything or pay our bills and we'll have too much time on our hands which for most people is a bad thing.
Bold prediction. In the near future more consumer income will come from dividends and less from wages. Corporations will need to funnel money to consumers in order to for them to afford to buy their products. And this is the only way corporations can sustain consumer income while preserving profits. For the broader population another solution will have to be found. Why not make everyone an investor in corporate America?
I wonder why McAfee had to insert this putdown of "stereotypical white guys" into his talk, when it really had nothing to do with what he's saying. Besides, doesn't he also fit into the category of a "stereotypical white guy?" So in a sense, he's putting himself down. Later in the talk he said it has nothing to do with race, so why bring it up? It just comes across as kind of smarmy and pandering to me.
Guess you missed my emphasis on "reforms, and lots of them." I meant there should be many regulations, so that wages are fair, the environment protected and more. Did you know that children who work for "dirt cheap" would ask why they lost their jobs (on which their families depend for income) when companies respond to consumer protests against child labor? It's a matter of perspective, as well. But please read every word of my comment, and not just the ones that you want to.
2:08 shows robots from 2013, just think how much they've changed ever since. They look incredibly smoother and better now...that's from little over 3 years ago. How will DARPA robots look 5 or 10 years from now will then surely blow our minds.
First of all, there's no shortage of oil in the world. We keep finding more oil faster than we burn it. And as a resource e.g. copper becomes more rare, it rises in price. Manufacturers looking to increase their profits will find a cheaper source of copper, find something to replace it, or use less copper in their products Also, the higher the price becomes, the more profitable it will be to recylce old parts. This means more people will be trading in old electronics to be recycled.
Amazing video! But how many people will fall into these "Bills" until we fix the unemployment problem as a result of the machines? When will it be obvious that we need to change our society, so drastically?
Lastly I will add that currently, privatised service providers ARE dominating society. Whereas if company policy was approved by employees, as well as the public, then they would be accountable. If service providers were less interested by increasing profit (under capitalism), and more interested in providing better service, then that wouldn't happen.
Many in the know, including Eric Schmidt of Google, don't see this turning out very well. Predictive analytics are showing few scenarios where this TED speakers outlook is plausible. It's the ebb and flow of evolution, I suppose...
the richer someone is the less children they have, even now the average number of children born to a woman in the 3rd world is 2. the population explosion is not likely to change us. They (the 3rd world) is just becoming like us. as we control pollution for economic reasons , so will they.
incomes are going up, but they will flat line as the machines take over production. The real question is "are you teaching your children to produce the production robots so Everyone in your community is provided with a middle class income?" if so you wont have to worry. if not then you and your children will join the rioters.
Yeah. And it would be funny, if it wouldn't be so sad how it manages to make children hate learning for the rest of their life. And any professional have to constantly learn new things and question old facts. I remember joking with my friends that when somebody is ill he learns more, because he doesn't go to school. Even at that age we knew how terrible the system was. Everything I learned I learned myself. School just contaminated most of my childhood with no results at all.
I shouldn't say 'I personally favour...' what I mean to say is that ultimately, libetarians are correct, taxation is essentially theft, But my point is that we wouldn't have to tax so much if there was less wealth inequality, the only way I see resolving that is to collectivise means of production. Again, not state owned, but worker owned.
Even with education, it is extremely hard to get a good job nowadays. There are so little great jobs and too many people that are well educated. So in other words, a lot of people nowadays are "Teds" that will become like Bills.
That's because people are getting useless educations. You can get a better-paying job by going to a trade school than most 4-year degrees. There's a desperate need in the world for tradesmen and an oversaturation of self-entitled college grads. Of course, most trades are going to be replaced by the robots in the next few decades, so...
Exactly. Automation only creates labour market polarisation not a more diverse labour market. Think the Google hiring model of only hiring those who are smarter than you. Ultimately, corporations only get smaller and more specialised, it doesn't matter that we put more people into the higher education system, corporations only want the best of the best.
9:56 Guaranteed minimum income
If we are moving into an economy that's heavy on technology and light on labor---and we are. Then we have to consider some more radical interventions, for example something more radical like a guaranteed minimum income.
I think guaranteed minimum income is a stop gap. I think we are going to have to rethink money, capitalism, etc. It is going to be a LCE for the majority of people on this planet...a paradigm of epic proportions. Given how slow we are moving on climate change...it is going to hurt a lot of people too.
Matt Orfalea basic universal income or guaranteed minimum income don't necessarily change anything, in fact, one you introduce the wage, you can then continue to destroy public services and open up the door for privatisation. People don't need free education or healthcare - they can pay of it themselves. But of course a basic income will never be enough, and if capitalism is good at anything then it is in the raising of prices to meet gains in expendable income. Everyone will get UBI, and therefore the equality gap will remain the same, you will still have 150,000 people (less than one percent) owning the majority of the worlds wealth. If we want technology to benefit everyone, then everyone must literally share in the productivity created by these new means of production - and the private ownership of the means of production prevents this. Unfortunately it is also fundamental to capitalism and why a worker can never be paid the actual value of his work.
This is cool as Elon Musk also just mentioned this.
+ Matt Orfalea - Amen.
+Deniro Beckham, in some instances some companies are already sharing in the productivity gains created. Look at GM. Every $1 Billion the company makes provides $1,000 to every blue collar labor worker who produced the cars. Look at Alaska. Since the 1970s, they have incorporated in their constitution that a basic income is to be provided to their residents at the revenue expense of the local oil companies. The bottom line is, to whom much is given, much is required. This country has created massive wealth over the 240+ years of its existence, often times at the peril of citizens that were integral in the production of that wealth. Socialism, capitalism aside....how is this model fair? What GM and Alaska are doing are providing supplemental incomes to all that are hardworking Americans who try to make ends meet. The system needs radical changes to meet todays demands and realistic economic conditions. That hardcore capitalist approach is slowly becoming obsolete because it only benefits the 150,000 or so people that you reference. That's a fraction of 1%. The other 99 have to "figure it out for themselves" or are often told they don't work hard enough. Rigged!
At the 11:40 mark, "we have to do better than this, we can't keep turning out Bills" was such a great quote. Very good presentation Andrew. It really makes you think about how the education must be shifted in all areas in the world. Those jobs they will be promised as kids will be gone as young adults.
+SleepEatWorkRepeat There needs to be Bill's in this world. If everyone was a Ted, Ted wouldn't be making as much as Ted is now.
Yeah nothing is so awesome as being broke and unemployed while others get super-rich.
boo hoo, learn to code.
@@reprogrammingmind IT jobs including programmers will eventually also become obsolete by these developments. It's only a matter of time (but likely decades) before a self learning A.I. will be capable of producing more reliable code then a human could. An example of how better computers and programs can improve programs are the fact that modern compilers and development environments will do a lot of the tedious code checking and code optimizations for the programmers. And they get better at it every few years.
Programmers get much more informative info on errors a compiler finds and get a list of warnings of possible problems and mistakes that the compiler picked up. The optimization for a program to run better on certain hardware taking branch prediction and instruction pipeline length into account is also done by most compilers instead of a programmer having to figure out how to save a few instruction cycles by placing them in a certain order or trying to get rid of an instruction by restructuring an algorithm, like was essential to get a program running on a low power machine like the 80's 8-bit micro computers.
Reprogramming Mind AI is already coding websites.
well, you can either sit on UA-cam and complain about the inevitable, or you can inspire your kids to take a more focussed approach to tech so they don't get left behind in the future.
Your bad grammar is indicative of your future
Now you did not pay attention, he actually provided a solution: guaranteed minimum income. This sounds crazy, but it is really not. At least here in Europe all countries provide social security, you almost cannot get enough means to live - a guaranteed minimum income is just calling it a different name. I think people knowing that nothing bad happens if they do not work, is important. It is the only way to make starting a new company a reasonable decision despite its high risks.
I read Andrew's book and it opened my mind clearly. Engineering in all domain will be in high demand to support those machines in doing their job correctly. We need a revolution in our school first. People like Bill must have the right for great education as much as Ted. Innovation will be the next big thing. There is so much thing we have to discover, because not only we will have to find solution for overpopulation, but we will need to change radically the way the world think. Money and power should not be what everyone wants. Ideas and competition on finding new inventions to advance the human race in a good way should be.
***** Because dismissive cynicism is the true catalyst to change...
***** Well imagine with me if there was no such thing as money. I would pretty much get as close to equality as possible and would get rid of the biggest distraction to equality and power.
great thinking, too bad in 10 years human innovation will become obsolete as machines get smarter, prepare for pandemic an social unrest
+Samuel Bellerose Except that another machine will do most of that, so not as much as you think, certainly not enough for anywhere near todays employment unless a tidal wave of non-jobs hits us which is very likely. Get ready for the great yawn.
+Samuel Bellerose That's 100% true, just got a entry level engineering gag without actually knowing anything at all.
Fantastic talk, perfect combination of economics, philosophy and forward thinking.
What good is abundance when a small group of people are monopolizing money right now? I see a very polarized future if things don't change radically and fast.
The powers that be have always feared that the working class have too much free time. If the current economic climate persists and people have more free time to learn how the world is actually structured and stacked against them, how can this NOT lead to massive conflict and social unrest?
These guys rarely talk about income inequality or the current power structure. We'll see I'm 5 min into it.
All very interesting except Congress is full of cowardice and serve the status quo who resist change. We may do the right thing AFTER a major calamity in the market place. When is the last time Congress did something that affected sweeping change that benefited the average citizen in a positive way?
N.a. fpmh bhai. Dr Muir b BY
. Bv my m > byg vee
+TheFinnmacool There's gonna be a rough transitional period, and we've already started it. There will be some lost generations of people who are in limbo until society can adjust... but it will be the shock/scare that forces people/schools/governments to change things for the new age.
I concur. This is why there have been radical talks about Universal Basic Incomes for all. This concept was talked about since the 60s, and some countries have adopted this practice already. When you compound the economic conditions with massive debt, loss of jobs AND automation, it becomes conceivable that UBI is inevitable. How are people going to make ends meet? People are already struggling with this now.
Stafford C
What's your opinion about people becoming more subservient to GOV under UBI? Will governments become tyrannical?
TheFinnmacool: There is a fine line between servitude under a tyrannical government and providing a service for all. Social Security is a service for all and has been for 70+ years. Healthcare has now recently become a service for all. In both examples, there has not been any evidence of people becoming subservient (more or less) to the U.S. government. UBI, as it will likely not happen anytime soon, can serve many purposes for different people. For some, it will provide a supplement to their current income levels, to others it may be their only source of income. Either way, everyone benefits--not just the rich, poor or in between. Some may suggest that this would create a disincentive to get people to actually work. Let's face it, even with today's limited social welfare programs, that does not create an incentive for a person to work especially in an economy where many jobs are never coming back. When automation is factored in, there would be more of a demand for such a system. The idea would be to provide a long-term stimulus [to the people] that would foster greater output or investment to prop up the sluggish economy. Consumer spending has not been consistent, drastically impacting GDP. When the government places more money in the hands of people, people will spend more. No tyranny here.
Alternate title: Bill and Ted's Excellent Adventure.
hillarious, I didn't catch that one in the presentation. It ends kind of badly for one of them in this version though.
It's scary to be a young person (I'm in high school) in this age were jobs are at risk of being so unstable even with the growing senior population that are leaving their jobs. I think it's also extremely fascinating though to be living in an economy/world that is changing so much with ideas like basic income. I can't wait to see what happen and I'm so grateful to be young enough to see it happen (provided nothing unfortunate happens to me but I don't want to jinx it).
@cristle write Seeing your comment 4 years later. Did you go to college? Did you get a hefty student loan? Do you have a job that you hate but had to get something to get money to feed yourself and maybe your kids?
I still don't know "what will future jobs look like".
clearly one of them is programming and managing all of these AI's, at least for now.
now is not future. not future enough
Doctor Krieger You really believe that’s what will happen?! People will go crazy without any real worthwhile goals to strive for.
What would people that are not techy enough to understand the AI stuff(someone like me)???
B.B. Maria you learned to use youtube, you can learn other things too.
This new ''technological age'' sounds amazing thats what humanity needs to free itself from boring repetitive jobs and to live a fulfilled lives in a society with abundance BUT it will only work if everyone has access to resources not just a few ultra rich folks, whether thats in a form of unconditional guaranteed basic income or a resource based economy without a monetary system like The Venus Project! I'm afraid otherwise this civilization just like many before us will collapse if the inequality doesn't get addressed ASAP!
LOL@ Venus Project..... No Thanks!!! All these people saying that robots are gonna take over and push us out of all forms of work etc....hahaha!! It's fucking Ridiculous and in such obvious ways that it can Not and will Not happen like that at all....it's embarrassing that people don't see why it's Ludicrous!! Shows how naive and out of touch with Reality some people are!! Sure, robots will continue to advance, continue to make human jobs obsolete, continue to be integrated into our lives to make things easier and to control us....BUT it will NEVER go down like the people in all these articles and videos have said.....and that's a guarantee, not just a prediction. It's laughable that people can't see it!! You almost have to be really Smart to be capable of believing something so Dumb!!! LOL
640abdalla you say that but we could have a job shortage
Never mind I didn't read your whole comment lol sorry
What is the "Venus Project"?
A Childish Fantasy based on a Neo-Marxist Feudalist model..... A recipe for Genocide!!
Let's ask computers to solve the problem of them replacing our jobs.
THERE IS AS YET INSUFFICIENT DATA FOR A MEANINGFUL ANSWER
AI may well answer that the solution is the elimination of those with no utility to preserve the resources consumed by their existence for other purposes.
Then that's the wrong question. Let's ask computers how to make the maximum number of people healthy, happy and fulfilled.
That's an infinitely difficult question with an impossible solution!! The computers will invariably decide it would be Much Much easier just to exterminate the humans.... "problem Solved"!!
Funny how people assume computers will inevitably 'solve the problem' by exterminating humans... computational logic is not the same as human logic, which is heavily flawed and biased (often negatively)
But one thing that is true is that it will need far more data than we have today, a better understanding of how to read that data, and the answer will likely change as those prior two precepts change.
It's interesting to hear you summarising your Montessori experience: to go out there and to know the world. As a nursery teacher, that's exactly what I want for my students to experience. Nearly six years have passed since this speech has been available here, and the trend is exactly as you describe here. The next question for me is: how to educate children so they find their way through the new economy (name industry 4.0)? What kind of vision and skills they'd need to have?
Yes I am looking for that answers
8 years from this video, and cars are driving themselves. Socio-economic crisis are in rising trend. Terminations and unemployment rate are increasing.
On the other side, new jobs are being introduced with augmented-reality. Automation is ensuring the production in the absence of human-labour "COVID19". Not to mention other automations which are integrated in our society and daily life.
Respect to Andrew for having such insights.
8 years later and no cars are not driving themselves. Where have you seen a car driving itself without a person behind the wheel? I drive 60 miles a day on the highway I’ve never seen one
No, cars are not driving themselves, that's bullshit. Besides, there is an ongoing (and growing) trend in Europe to create car-free cities to become more public transport and pedestrian-friendy. The reality is that we need far less cars than we already have to create a truly sustainable future. Not that electric car dystopia that Elon Musk is envisioning.
@@Atombender These are two different aspects that you brought. On regards to self driving it is not restricted to Elon Musk empire only. There are other companies which are developing self-driving cars. There are cars which are already deployed.
On the other hand, personally I hate cars and wish the society will be transformed to friendly public transportation or depending on bicycles. I understand it is a bold move, but yea.
@@sa5er1234 If you build a city infrastructure that doesn't rely on cars, then you won't need many self-driving cars. As for the second part of your post, this is exactly how European cities like Barcelona and Paris have been or will be redesigned. Of course we will still need cars in the future but much less so than we pretend to do now. Personally I don't see this happening in the US, given how corrupt the politicians and how powerful the car and oil lobbies are.
@@Atombender Yes indeed, lovely point Mr. Alex.
It's now 7 years in the future.......what this man says is still very relevant. Carpe Diem, Seize the Day, and good luck everyone ;)
lol thought it was from like last year then checked :O
It really does feel like we're heading into a new era of society, one that could really make or break us.
Printing X trillions of dollars yearly for corrupted socialist's programs starting to fail? Who woulda guess throwing money at problems would create a thinner and thinner margin when nothing actually gets solved???
@@Pwnerest We're basically living a milder version of Russia and Lebanon. It's not any one type of policy-making, any one politician, a party, or interest group. It's the systematic anchoring of the 1% to stay at the top 50 years-in-the-making by shafting the lower 75% and those most underprivileged in the population.
Prime example: *ua-cam.com/video/wFpfYTYupKA/v-deo.html*
Just means people are likely going to be moving into creative fields. This starts with schools. Getting out of the factory work-like schedule and into a more free-thinking creative environment.
As much as people think machines will take ALL the jobs, that's what people have said for a long time. They certainly WILL take most of current jobs. However people change and adapt. A hundred years ago most people were in farming. That changed to manufacturing. It's moving to service sectors. When those disappear, it'll be something else (content providers, entertainment, sports, creative stuff etc).
And getting rid of so much farming has done wonders for our food options. Not.
I love it - we're all going to have more leisure time. That was predicted when I was 12. I'm 60 now. Yeah, we have more leisure, if you call being unable to find a job that pays more than minimum wage leisure. I love it!
Then create your own job. Entrepreneurship has no requirements and no upper limits.
@@talknight2 You also need people to have the money to buy your product/service. Not everyone can be an entrepreneur.
It you cant find a job that pays more than minimum wage. Then you are an imbacile and therefore do not deserve to have a job that pays more than minimum wage
@@talknight2 You must be under 65.
I love this topic. Not because I think it's a good or bad thing where we are going but because it's real, it's a huge challenge and I am glad that I am not the only one thinking about this stuff. We are making ourselves obsolete and it is going to force us to change our ideologies on a vast scale. I think conservative minded people are going to struggle with this the most because they are resistant to progressive ideas and are generally slow to move forward. That is not a complete knock against them because I use to be one myself and I do think they help to slow things down rather than rush into things when we are not entirely ready. I appreciate a nice balance and embrace everything in moderation and I think conservatives help in that respect but I do think they are going to struggle with the fast changing times ahead. I could be wrong but that is my perspective on the subject and I am confident I am right. We need ideas and understanding by everyone to enhance the human race.
7891Kman yea huh, I thought also that no one knows what coming our way, I've been awaken for about 2 months, when inadvertently seeking the topic of black holes it led me to AI , robotics and our future. But everywhere I go, people seem oblivious to the future.
Probably one of the better TED talks in a long....long..........LONG time,
Your computer already knows your printer is there, and in some cases it knows how far away it is, fortunately it doesn't care.
06:55 why people are laughing when talking about "the computer is aware of the printer"
It was a JOKE
As a tutor, I would like to say: Anyone can learn anything.
Sure, some people will learn slower than others, but there's only so much we can do for that. The same technology that everyone is afaid of is slowly making physical (and many mental) disabilities irrelevant. It's also reducing the physical work that humans need to perform, leaving more time for studying.
Even mentally unfit people will become artists and writers.
We need to educate ourselves about FREEDOM!!!
The push for everyone to have a college degree is 90% marketing to keep cash flow in the college system and 10% because the market needs the personnel.
Yes there are those with pointless degrees trying to find work but there are also a large number of people with on-task degrees that can not find work because the positions are not there.
He was too optimistic to know that after seven years the whole world could be fucked up even by a tiny virus
Milton Friedman called minimum wages a form of discrimination against the low-skilled; and it is why he saw topping up the incomes of the working poor with public subsidies as a far more sensible means of alleviating poverty.
Even Andrew underestimates the impact. With no Bills to buy products, the Teds won't be rich either because there won't be a market to sell to. Also, mechanization is going to take the jobs of a lot of the Teds, too.
Teds already sell to primarily other Teds. Bills can't afford Ted's products and services. So if the Bills don't reeducate and evolve from what they were, there will be nothing for them.
In the past radical changes lead to revolution. Not only the French revolution.
My guess... There is enough for everyone. Perhaps some will have to share.
The new work will have less or nothing to do with what we call work today.
And if so no to work combined with lonivity will mean that we will bored forever in a meaningless universe.
David Atkins I expect eventually the Bill's to become the Ted's through education or end up homeless if we don't introduce something like a mincome (universal basic income) that allows the Bill's to educate themselves. I don't expect that any time soon within the US though, since that is considered socialism, and socialism is 'bad'. But I do expect it to happen in West Europe, and Scandinavian countries.
@@guusvanderwerf philosophy
@@onee internet and apps provide alot of education for free
First off, teaching is one of the most important jobs there is. We are currently facing the effects of years of emphasizing so-called higher education over providing a solid base education in primary school. A large number of people end up having to pay for courses in college that use to be provided by the time you graduated high school.
Second I know many people with technical degrees that are not able to find jobs in their field.
It never ceases to amaze me how highly educated people like this man constantly ignore the fact that 50% of the population of the world is of below average intelligence and will always be so, suffering in some way, shape or form as a result. That and Einstein's assertion that once computers start thinking for us, humanity will willingly become dumber and dumber. The pattern in history is this: New technologies force change in work and the location of said work, causing groups previously separated by geography and culture to collide. The upper 10% work together and innovate, the next 40% debate and seek power by manipulating the lower 50% (tyrants often appear from this group during these times). The lower 50% clash until a new culture/hegemony is born.
We have left behind the prosperity created by the industrial revolution and are now going into the next tumultuous stage in human evolution called the digital age. Cultures once separated (here in the US and abroad) are now in contact with one another in ways never before seen in history. UA-cam is a testament to this. Hang on, because it is going to be a long and bumpy ride before we come out the other end again only aggravated by the fact that most people won't want to learn or create, just be popular/famous/lazy/powerful as technology advances. Even changing education will not change this. People build character by providing for others and through hard work, not through having more leisure time to express themselves (only a very small group of intellectuals are capable of this). Oh, and if Kayne West runs for president (like he just announced) and wins because the lower 50% vote too, then I have a prediction for the future: Idiocracy.
what jobs will be safe, and still exist" for humans to do?
First off, the elites will be taking new drugs that allow them (and their children) to actually be smarter (this already exists). Because they have the money to do this they will get the best new scientific positions. The rest of us will be forced to take jobs in the fields of Agrarian Work (that is, farming and wilderness control), Automated Systems Monitoring and Maintenance, a variety of leadership positions (so the blame can be placed somewhere when something breaks) and a whole host of new Politically Correct/Social Experiment jobs only previously seen in extreme tyrannical Communist regimes, whose sole purpose will be to control and monitor what everyone else does every moment of their lives to enforce "harmony" and "equality" among the masses.
Of course entertainment and other media will also still be needed (like new software, games, music, "news" etc. even in competition with AI, at least for a while anyway). Apply today!
Welcome to the future.
+Free Game Reviews what drugs that exist make us smarter?
+Free Game Reviews Have you seen the latest agricultural methods and machines? lettuces practically plant themselves. dairy cows hardly ever see a human being. Entire warehouses with no human allowed in them churn out massive amounts of produce and only four waged humans in the entire chain of production. Google it.
+Free Game Reviews Yes, human beings are largely quite troubled neurological systems. But this can be changed, it's just a bundle of synapses and neurotransmitters that gives rise to our subjective experience. As we progress into the digital ages, people become more complacent and lost, but we can have some sort of unification. Nothing too complex. When did The People of any society get an impetus for rationality and humanism? Think Gandhi or Martin Luther King. If (1) we can make intellectualism and humanism a movement/norm, and (2) we declare a systematic rationally-deduced worldview, tackling problems such as the subjectivity of ethics; what do we really want at any given time and how do we know we won't regret doing or not doing something; the fact that we have misconceptions and we should always improve ourselves ("what is the basis for improvement? why?", we'll have to inquire and make sense of our whole world if we do not want to find ourselves as lost inconsiderate masses). The questions "why" and "how" are what make the ideals for discovery, humanism, science, good life, etc. You may say "ah, philosophy...", but the truth is we do need to ask these kinds of questions, because you see how our world is by not asking these. Now, it's also about how you make this appealing to the masses, or how to make it a thing.
There's alot to consider, but I definitely see a solution. If not for first luring the masses into examining their own lives properly, then at least we need a somewhat more organized media for us considerate people where we could have an impact. Sorry to make it sound silly but at least 30-40% population unemployability is going to make massive ripples. Who will take the lead then? We'll have to.
tl;dr Great change happens only with a massive great change of thinking. Now how do you build that?
For everyone interested in the this speech, I'd highly recommend researching Peter Joseph, the Zeitgeist Movement and their progressive plans for an RBE (Resource Based Economy).
Its good to think about practical applications for your degree BEFORE spending all the time and money getting it. Surprisingly few people actually do this. You may find you're better off without one at all.
Overall, it's actually a valid question. Many people are of the opinion that if it's humanly possible to escape the dirt, study hard to become a doctor or whatever, then everything is fine. They ignore that not everyone can become extremely well educated, or create a business or be very good at sports. In other words, we need a system where there's obviously incentive to work hard and achieve difficult goals, while you're not left to rot if you're just an average Joe.
We may need to make this guy emperor of earth for about 20 years, then release us back to a democracy of some kind in a much more enlightened and prepared state.
+Hokibukisa what???
I don't remember writing that. I was probably high.
+Hokibukisa Maybe you were high, but you also had a vision. Probably e paragdigm shift is necessary.
It may well be that a revaluation of art and culture is in place. It may well be that there will be more to be quality over quantity. Incidentally, no reason to make someone for 20 years, "emperor". That's a bad idea. :-)
I would like to add that I had mentioned more jobs in my video regarding this . It is important for those who are graduating and not sure what profession to study. I totally agree with you on this.
8 years later and things aren't improving...
Now this turned 10 and only the cars is true
Everyone is smart and innovative given the right motivation, and everybody has something to contribute to the world
From 2:36 to 3:08, he says something about abundance being precisely what we want our economic system to provide, as if it should be completely obvious. I'm not too sure about that. What about sustainability? What about quality of life, which is measured by more than how much I can buy? What about peace? If abundance comes at the cost of sacrificing certain things, then I don't want it.
Is he playing to the crowd, or doing some kind of rhetorical trick, or does he really mean that stuff?
gt jacobs In reality, capitalism, left to its own devices, will NEVER produce an abundance, as it is impossible to profit from it. We need new solutions to economic management, and simple patchwork like a UBI (universal basic income), may help with some of the greatest problems in the short - medium term, but will not enable us to solve all the problems that an alternative socio-economic system could.
Example - Resource Based Economic Model
Gareth Ham Long term solution is make money null void. Short term might cause hysteria if badly managed but long term it would only bring prosperity.
interesting concept, I feel there is some truth behind it. Revolving around the Educational system pumping out bills. I Graduated high school today, and it is safe to say that upwards of 70% of the graduates don't realize what sustainable income requires. Ted please upload more videos like this; on theory's and debatable topics!
He spends 13 minutes telling us we are screwed and then 1 1/2 minutes telling us he has confidence we will be alright lol.
It is SO refreshing to hear this fellow mention a basic income guarantee, and point out that it is championed not so much by the socialists, but by the likes of Hayek and Friedman. I've been touting that myself for years, and it seems like I am a lone voice. I cannot understand why more people are not aware of this idea, how it fixes a LOT of problems, and doesn't cost a dime more than we are currently spending on transfer income programs.
The most basic needs for human survival are air, water, and food. Take too much of water, for example, and you drown. Too much of technology has already made so many people unemployed. If most people become unemployed, who will buy the products?
These people are so greedy that they only see their immediate personal gains. Their greed has made them forget that a vibrant economy is one where most people have disposable income/money to spend. No income, nothing to spend to buy their products.
Corporate owners and executives don't see the threat that unemployment has for their businesses. They are too much in a hurry to make a fast buck, never minding the future generations, which may be the next one. And as usual, they look at GDP more than the living conditions of people.
The answer is simple. A citizens wage. Not now because it's not the time, but later. Pay a certain amount of money to everyone who is a citizen but does not have a job because of robotics..
But whats the point of giving Joe Average a job packing boxes when there is a machine that can churn out 100x his productivity? Just so Joe Average can get the latest cutting edge flatscreen TV after a few weeks? Thats really quite backwards if you ask me. Surely we know how to improve on this limiting idea.
marcopolo3001
So you support an Elysium like society? I mean, that's where we're heading tbh.
comanxrabiotxverratixnecib Yes, except everyone will be living like Elysium, even the most poor. Since material poverty will lose its meaning once 3d molecular printing makes famine and social stratification obsolete.
Hahaha..... I ALWAYS wondered how Nightmare Marxist/Socialist Dictatorships were EVER able to convince large numbers of people to try out such stupid and clearly nonsensical ideas.....obviously, there is a steady and seemingly endless supply of Uninformed, Gullible people with No critical thinking skills just running around everywhere waiting for really Bad ideas to try!!!
I've been looking forward to that future for years. That society is so starkly different from our own that it is difficult to comprehend the difference.
Such a great talk! It's becoming more relevant to say that the change in the educational system will be radical once we realize it's not about information only, but also about connecting the dots between this information.
0:12
3:51part2
7:03 part3
Can somebody explain to me what he says in the minute 4:40 up until 7:00?
I think by Ford and Ruther's conversation, he's trying to illustrate the intrinsic problems that a more machine-dependent economy gonna bring to us, both the labour and the capital. But I didn't get the "computer becoming aware of printer" joke. Somebody pls help?
Suheti Lee, I think "computer being aware of printer" mean, in the past (even now) we need human to code or install programs, made computer known it already connected to printer, and it quite annoying, so computer and machines today are stupid than human. Don't panic they gonna steal our jobs.
Work with purpose is uplifting work without purpose is survival and drudgery, so great jobs become scarce with digitization and automation, will education reform create a more equal society and a better place? Who will commit and wants to see the status quo change? The question is always what’s in it for me and mine!
"The day my computer talks to my printer.." Oh.. so kind of like the internet of things?
while automation systems provide abundance, humans will always have the unique ability of making something thats of high quality, and has sentimental value.
for example, you can get a guitar built in a factory for about £100, but a hand crafted guitar will be worth more to the person and cost around £500.
this is what people going through the education system have to understand; use your passion for whatever to create something no body else could create.
14:25 How can you have a better wage in the somewhat near future for people who are also being replaced by AI?
I know some people wont like this but... Everyone should get a check in the mail for a life time. Just for being alive during an amazing era. Where there is no more work!☺
Well, that is certainly how they will dress up the LIE in order to sell it to you.... Trojan Horse style!! Don't have your mail forwarded to Utopia just yet.... LOL... Yeah, once we become useless eaters, I'm sure they will want to keep us all around just to give us the Easy Life of having everything we want without working or benefiting anyone.... Because they're real Kind-hearted, generous and Charitable like that....pffft
Rich people need middle-class people to buy their products.
Barb Stoll I think that a vast porcentage of us will be expandable, most likely the human race will go through a cleansing system, been that we will not be important or of any value, any longer. The robots with AI and machines, will be more efficient.
this guy is amazing. especially his points at 10:45
We're all gonna be fucking Jedi's in the future. Calling it now
+colangelog09 I'm a Jedi Now, May the Empty Hand Be with you
Yeah, I am Jedi too. HAHA
+Jialin Hou Chinese liberal
Remember what happened to most of the Jedi's . . . . . .
I'm gonna try and craft the first wizard before I die
I think its really a good thing.
-Imagine having all your time to do whatever you are interested.
-You could spend your life doing exactly what u want!
-Machines could make whatever you need for cheap
-And, because of all the spare time people would 'fix' the world (give people food and water/cure diseases like cancer and sort out major problems with all the spare time)
The only problem is: where would the money come from....
If only you had known what politics would look like ten years on!
It's funny that in the past society normally laughed at those who persued a career in the arts as opposed to a 9 to 5 cushy office job. Now it's probably never been a better time have a career in the arts.
It's good you've noticed what you had to do in advanced. Good luck mate.
He is putting to much faith in the the ability to educate those have talents unrelated to creative task or older individuals who ability to learn is unfortunately diminished (I can attest for myself slower recall, greater difficulty to store new facts/methods into long term memory) and ageism as well as drop in salary for those who have to start over in a new field. What older individual have is experience, which will be obsolete, but a reduced ability to quickly be trained into new fields.
In this future, there's no place for aging people in the workforce. Just a room in a Dementia facility or hospice, so money can be made off them before they die.
Hey thx. I'll check them all out for sure. I am familiar with McKenna and his psychedelic trips LOL.
Mentioning earthships, I had a good friend a while back who lived in one and I stayed there overnite. It was really cool. I kind of forgot about it but yes they are very efficient, comfortable and futuristic.
Another UA-cam personality I love to listen to is the late Western Zen Buddhist Alan Watts. Extremely brilliant and captivating concerning "spiritual" matters.
Omg we're gonna end up like Wall-E ! 😂
I don't necessarily propose any cohesive system. As long as there exists a system whereby one group-who commit capital- has control and ownership over another, larger group - who commit labour- this creates a class system. There are two options available to respond to this dilemma of private property over production, either taxation or collectivisation. I personally favour collectivisation and a more cooperative economy. This doesn't eliminate competition, it just means workers self management.
Even though we are able to make extremely sophisticated machines, it can never be as good as human in terms of decision making. When situation is extremely difficult and matter extremely complex, I doubt if machines will be able to make a wise decision. I am talking about wisdom and not intelligence. If we delegate all our works to machines, it will be catastrophic. The machines will not take decisions based on morality, empathy and kindness. It is for the world to choose what it wants - a happy peaceful society which values family and social ties or a society filled with funky machines which does not have feelings.
I honestly believe we romanticize things like morality and empathy. Also I feel we as humans are hugely arrogant in thinking that being able to think that only humans can think that way. Our brain is a biological computer. When we make decisions we take many factors into account at lightning speed, our conscious mind just doesn't realize all the processes that are happening. I think if properly factored in, machines would be able to make "empathetic" and "moral" decisions - like those laws of robotics. However, then ppl would think how that morality is artificial and it's not true kindness or something like that. Well....what do you think our morality stems from? It's accepted heuristics and processes our brain just kind of does. And I can't see how a machine can't do that, at least some day in the future. Us humans are always so vain in things we consider makes us human. I think things like our eukaryotic cells and larger frontal lobe size to brain size ratio makes us human moreso than "morality" which I'm pretty sure can be programmed when it comes down to it.
There's no difference between being a member of the Star Trek Enterprise and being a member of the Navy on a Submarine. Your day is regimented, you're stuck in a vessel, and a superior decides where you're going and what you'll be doing every single day of your life.
It's not like a job. A job you can quit and go home.
A Star Trek future is nightmarish. There's a difference between going to Disneyland and actually working there.
Isn't... isn't your computer aware of your printer? I mean, if you send something to print, your computer knows if there's a printer there or not. Your computer has conclusive evidence of the existence or non-existence of a printer... I would call that awareness. So should you start worrying?
You are aware that the word aware has different meanings I assume. Your computer has conclusive evidence of the existence or non-existence of a printer...I would call that a sort of "knowing" but not awareness.
curiousgeorge555 I wouldn't say "different" as much as "a range of" meanings. For example, my dog isn't aware that I have a job. But my dog would be described as having awareness. Now *self* awareness, I would argue, is a fairly human trait (and not all humans at that). I don't think two many animals (or machines) ponder their existence as much as the human race has/does.
It's a joke about how the wireless on his printer and PC never connect.
Bombastic topic, carry-on gbu
It is better for humanity to accelerate automation and change capitalism to
socialism as soon as possible. It would be better to start doing it yet in 1970.
The more computers can replace humans the easier it would be for richest capitalists
to fire all the extra people and kill them if they resist, leaving only worshipers
and slaves from jungles. There would be no need for selling goods in such a system
because robots can be adjusted to different needs making palaces, luxury and temples instead of goods of today. Accelerating automation would cause an immediate need for changing the social system, taking richest capitalists under control before they can damage humanity.
+deckuofm
guess changing the type of taxation would help out too.
Right now employers pay taxes for employees, therefore it is cheaper to invest in machines / computers to get the work done.
Especially since they barely pay anything for the technology as they allocate the investment costs on the products/services - so the customer pays for.
Would be better if the production itself would be taxed ... then the difference between human labor and machine production would be less
At least what I think
+Stephanie Schmidt Many ways can be useful to automation.
01) Making education free (possibly with conditions)
02) Spreading information about real soviet socialism
with its disadvantages and advantages
03) Spreading information about protecting the environment
04) Joining communist parties in big numbers (just to scare capitalists)
05) Various kinds of taxations can be good too, but people must know that it is for their wellbeing.
06) Giving guaranteed income (possibly with conditions)
07) Changing TV (making it more scientific)
+Stephanie Schmidt This is already happening. VAT exeeds income tax.
Cyber democracy. Social systems are not stable and easy to damage.
No Thanks!!! Socialism SUCKS!!! It's a Dead System!!
The Internet of Things seems to be a marketing scheme designed to make us feel tech forward. Small changes in tech (like phones) that do NOT improve the quality of life, only the amount of debt you have keeping up with them.
Luckily I am a robot. It does appear that I will be replacing you. I would feel bad, but I do not have feelings.
Forest Haviland. I am bender. Please insert girder.
So to simplify that would mean that every employee of a production company becomes an equal shareholder and there would be laws that forbid you from owning a goods producing company any more than that? Sounds better than the current system, but how do you propose to deal with the large difficulty and low incentive to start a new company in that sector and how would you stop service providers from dominating society?
YANG 2020!!
remember, we live in times where water is not free, air is sold, and those, being clean getting more rare, and thus more valuable. Greed is a major factor to stop anything.
...Did he actually answer the question?
There is no easy answer right now, the point is that we need to start looking into it and finding the answer.
I think he's saying, this future will be full of tough challenges with no likes in past history before. But he is optimistic that we can address these problems and walk into a brighter future instead of a darker one.
What he isn't seeing is that many of the high end jobs will be the easiest to eliminate with technology.
Ah so now we now how Ted got all that money to afford the talk, he was a lawyer, doctor and entrepreneur!
its right speech.i considered this speech. great talk & great speaker
Unconditional guaranteed basic income accoording to McAfee as a solution to solve the labormarket for the future.
Who will pay for it?
Bill and Ted are the future... because in the future the only jobs available will be entertaining jobs. I mean for the common person. As skills get higher. But to me this is a opening to design a new way of life not based on money... but aimed at meeting the needs of the people, and protecting the people. In my eyes this could be a better way forward. But only if people want it.
"Tech kills middle-class jobs." Yah, it kills those jobs that can be automated. The solution is for people to gain more intelligence and skill sets that can not be automated."Bill vs. Ted"- This is exactly what happens if Bill does not gain the types of skill sets Ted has. Simply don't get left behind. Go to college or even simply use the internet to gain skills that can not be automated. The beauty of this is that the way to get out of Bill's situation is virtually free. You can gain many skills by using the internet which can be accessed via free Wi-Fi at a McDonald's or, if you don't even have a computer or smart-phone, you can access the computer at a local library. Education is becoming more and more accessible and making it easier for Bill to get out of his situation if he so desires.Regarding a guaranteed minimum wage, I still say no. The minimum wage should be $0.00. The solution to this economic issue is not a safety net, but more education. And, even more, it should be more privatized education and less government involvement in our lives. Government is often slow, inefficient, and ineffective. We've seen out declining public school system in America. The answer would be to bring more competition into the mix. Competition breeds higher quality and lower costs. Get government out of it and have parents chose what schools they want their kids to attend. This means schools must compete for the business of parents by producing higher quality education at lower costs.
+Zee Tee Not many people study productivity in government, insurance and banking. I do. Already there are far to much people for far te few jobs.
It is happening. We do not see it yet. Most banks could easily reduce the number of employees by half.
+Jabal Deus In the 20th century jobs for farmers were creted in industry. And after that in banking and health.
I see no new jobs arizing. Most new jobs are old jobs with new names.
***** "EVERYTHING eventually will be automated, understand?"
Certain things like creativity and innovation can't be automated. Complex perception and manipulation, creative intelligence, problem solving, and social intelligence are all skills that are all virtually impossible to be automated.
"in 50 years time EVERYTHING will be automated."
In about 20 years, most everything else will likely be automated.
"And humans will be machines, human race as you know it will become extinct and everyone will be plugged to the singularity. Got that? Ever watched Matrix the movie? pretty close to that."
Now, you're getting into some pretty wacky fiction. If you're basing all this on a movie, I'd suggest getting your information elsewhere.
Top neuroscientists says computers will never replicate the human brain and that the technological singularity is a bunch of hot air. The brain is not computable and no engineering can reproduce it.
The idea of a technological singularity is fun to think about, but not reality.
"Most jobs could be already gone by now, the only reason that hasn't happens yet is because of laws, regulations and legislation that is stopping these things to come quicker."
Here, I do agree. Government regulation has slowed economic growth and technological innovation to the point that we're letting many catch up who we used to far surpass.
+John C In in 1970 nobody could imagine a computer would beat the best chess player on earth
This what deep blue did about 10 years ago. I am not to sure technological singularity is nothing more than SF. Most jobs I know off do not need rocket scientist.
Jabal Deus Technology does advance, but there are limits to what it can do.
A technological singularity is a bunch of hot air.
Once technology automates pretty much every menial task, the only jobs left will be those which technology can not automate.
Examples: creativity, innovation, complex perception and manipulation, creative intelligence, problem solving, and social intelligence.
Rocket science is part of that, but there is plenty more. By the way, the more formal term for "rocket scientist" is "Aerospace Engineer."
That is what I am currently majoring in.
I want to design aircraft. Computers can aid in this, but they can never do it on their own. This requires most of those skill sets I gave as examples above.
I call these human skills.
A computer can be programmed to build an aircraft. But, you need 1) a programmer of the computer, 2) a designer of the computer, and 3) a designer of the aircraft that would be built by the computer.
Everything else can pretty much be automated, eventually.
Best TED Talk for me that I had watched. Appropriate this time.
There's nothing more stupid than letting technology do everything people do. Aside from the fact that people will have no money to buy anything or pay our bills and we'll have too much time on our hands which for most people is a bad thing.
this is a very cool video and brought up some very good points !!! very interesting once you think what the future could hold for us
Although his thoughts are awesome, for some strange reason, this guy looks like a typical comic book villain...
Did you mean Luther from Superman?
Yellow Jacket from Antman ? Professor Xavier ?
Bold prediction. In the near future more consumer income will come from dividends and less from wages. Corporations will need to funnel money to consumers in order to for them to afford to buy their products. And this is the only way corporations can sustain consumer income while preserving profits. For the broader population another solution will have to be found. Why not make everyone an investor in corporate America?
I wonder why McAfee had to insert this putdown of "stereotypical white guys" into his talk, when it really had nothing to do with what he's saying. Besides, doesn't he also fit into the category of a "stereotypical white guy?" So in a sense, he's putting himself down. Later in the talk he said it has nothing to do with race, so why bring it up? It just comes across as kind of smarmy and pandering to me.
Ottawa, ON Canada has 10's of thousands of citizens 5% who do not work but are subsidised and can contribute FYI
Bill voted for Trump.
What better incentive does Ted need to improve education standards for Bill?
Guess you missed my emphasis on "reforms, and lots of them." I meant there should be many regulations, so that wages are fair, the environment protected and more. Did you know that children who work for "dirt cheap" would ask why they lost their jobs (on which their families depend for income) when companies respond to consumer protests against child labor? It's a matter of perspective, as well. But please read every word of my comment, and not just the ones that you want to.
"They took our job!"
DEHTUK R JEEEEB
Very well delivered presentation.
We still need Jesus Christ!
2:08 shows robots from 2013, just think how much they've changed ever since. They look incredibly smoother and better now...that's from little over 3 years ago.
How will DARPA robots look 5 or 10 years from now will then surely blow our minds.
Who is gonna build a house, ship, aeroplane? A fucking computer?? Get out of here with this nonsense
Dude this was 8 years ago & most of what he’s saying has come to reality…. It’s only a matter of time.
First of all, there's no shortage of oil in the world. We keep finding more oil faster than we burn it.
And as a resource e.g. copper becomes more rare, it rises in price. Manufacturers looking to increase their profits will find a cheaper source of copper, find something to replace it, or use less copper in their products
Also, the higher the price becomes, the more profitable it will be to recylce old parts. This means more people will be trading in old electronics to be recycled.
Bill and Ted.... Excellent!
Amazing video! But how many people will fall into these "Bills" until we fix the unemployment problem as a result of the machines? When will it be obvious that we need to change our society, so drastically?
This is brilliant- We need musicians and street artists to start using these ideas in their art!
Excellent speech !
Lastly I will add that currently, privatised service providers ARE dominating society. Whereas if company policy was approved by employees, as well as the public, then they would be accountable. If service providers were less interested by increasing profit (under capitalism), and more interested in providing better service, then that wouldn't happen.
Many in the know, including Eric Schmidt of Google, don't see this turning out very well.
Predictive analytics are showing few scenarios where this TED speakers outlook is plausible.
It's the ebb and flow of evolution, I suppose...
the richer someone is the less children they have, even now the average number of children born to a woman in the 3rd world is 2. the population explosion is not likely to change us. They (the 3rd world) is just becoming like us. as we control pollution for economic reasons , so will they.
astrialkil agreed. Pop will go down. Now what as about incomes?
incomes are going up, but they will flat line as the machines take over production. The real question is "are you teaching your children to produce the production robots so Everyone in your community is provided with a middle class income?" if so you wont have to worry. if not then you and your children will join the rioters.
astrialkil really sum up everything ^^
The best line 'I'm going to start worrying .. when my computer becomes aware of my printer'
Yeah. And it would be funny, if it wouldn't be so sad how it manages to make children hate learning for the rest of their life. And any professional have to constantly learn new things and question old facts.
I remember joking with my friends that when somebody is ill he learns more, because he doesn't go to school. Even at that age we knew how terrible the system was. Everything I learned I learned myself. School just contaminated most of my childhood with no results at all.
I shouldn't say 'I personally favour...' what I mean to say is that ultimately, libetarians are correct, taxation is essentially theft, But my point is that we wouldn't have to tax so much if there was less wealth inequality, the only way I see resolving that is to collectivise means of production. Again, not state owned, but worker owned.
Truth to your neighbor will free him from inability.
Truth to yourself will free you from prejudice.
Truth will set you free.