9. Volatility Modeling

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  • Опубліковано 29 лис 2024

КОМЕНТАРІ • 59

  • @SeikoVanPaath
    @SeikoVanPaath 4 роки тому +69

    Timestamps:
    0:00:22 Estimation of Stationary ARMA Models (Recap of Lecture 8)
    0:09:23 Tests for Stationarity/Non-Stationarity (from Lecture 8)
    0:22:32 Defining Volatility
    0:23:48 Historical Volatility: Measurement and Prediction
    0:31:19 Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM)
    0:59:32 Poisson Jump Diffusions
    1:05:43 ARCH Models
    1:15:19 GARCH Models

  • @L-x7y
    @L-x7y 6 років тому +18

    ARCH models start at 1:05:38

  • @empress0ntombi
    @empress0ntombi 7 років тому +59

    Volatility Modeling starts at 20 minutes

    • @SuperDangerousMouse
      @SuperDangerousMouse 6 років тому +3

      skip to 20:30

    • @Eon-Yang
      @Eon-Yang 5 років тому +1

      You saved my 20min!

    • @conjetapierre8755
      @conjetapierre8755 4 роки тому

      Empress Ntombi Thank you

    • @IlyaBratenkov
      @IlyaBratenkov 3 роки тому

      @@Eon-Yang это серия лекций! Лектор рассказывает то, что он не успел рассказать на предыдущем уроке

  • @BreezeTalk
    @BreezeTalk 3 роки тому +4

    watching these with the lecture notes open and having sone some reading is basically like attending an MIT class, so cool!

  • @comenerv
    @comenerv 7 років тому +16

    20:38 for volatility modelling

  • @DaSexPixels
    @DaSexPixels 9 років тому +92

    The prof. should be writing these equations out on the board as he talks about them. It's the only way to teach math. If his teachers used slides, I doubt he would have gotten to where he is today, teaching at leading research university. Unfortunately, he is not the only one. This a growing trend in academia.

    • @hussein6419
      @hussein6419 9 років тому +20

      +DaSexPixels I don't know what's your problem lol? You're not even paying for it.

    • @Jacob930321
      @Jacob930321 9 років тому +11

      +DaSexPixels The camera man is the problem, not the prof.

    • @jiancongwang1268
      @jiancongwang1268 7 років тому +13

      Make sense. At least when the god damn professor talk, put the view onto the slides, not on the old man himself which makes no sense. The dude who edited this should be fired. Stanford open course's editing beats this any day of the week.

    • @zhukeren
      @zhukeren 7 років тому

      If you find this bothers you, you can really access the course material on their website

    • @arcx1000
      @arcx1000 7 років тому +4

      I agree, the whole reason I'm here is because this is exactly what my derivative modelling prof does, so that doesn't help much.

  • @hrushikeshmallick6884
    @hrushikeshmallick6884 7 років тому +12

    why the power point presentation is set at a very high altitude and totally away from the teacher? The classroom setting is a really a problem here. Major problem can be addressed by setting the room and the power point. The instructor uses the slides while speaking, the camera instead of showing the slides, shows teacher's face to the audience.Other than this I have no major problems.One should appreciate that there si something interesting in the lecture although starting is little boring.

  • @UnkleRiceYo
    @UnkleRiceYo 5 років тому +13

    I'll save you one hour and twenty minutes... essentially, don't just use close close returns for volatility estimates. If your volatility changes with time, just use a simple GARCH model.

    • @XShollaj
      @XShollaj 3 роки тому

      Thank you

    • @LemmaofIto-mz9ee
      @LemmaofIto-mz9ee Рік тому

      just read Financial Risk Management book by Christoffesson

  • @SphereofTime
    @SphereofTime 5 місяців тому +1

    26:00 Prediction based on historical volatility

  • @MagicmathmandarinOrg
    @MagicmathmandarinOrg 9 років тому +10

    Great intro course & good for reviewing basic things.

  • @shawnfanning8519
    @shawnfanning8519 7 років тому

    good job, because the books are hard to understand, because this is new to me. So he gave good job of breaking down the material.THK

  • @dombgerinefoxter
    @dombgerinefoxter 9 років тому +3

    Thank you very much. Great material

  • @acuimoto
    @acuimoto 10 років тому +1

    thanks for this videos, i hope one the goes to the MIT

  • @nvnradha
    @nvnradha Рік тому

    how (C1-C0)^2 is scaled by sigma^2 to the chi square distribution

  • @annawilson3824
    @annawilson3824 Рік тому

    23:49 Volatility formula

  • @azharalimarri3341
    @azharalimarri3341 3 роки тому

    I found a very good lecturer on ARCH and GARCH models please suggest any good book for volatility modelling and prediction

  • @HolmesPatrick
    @HolmesPatrick Місяць тому +1

    No sound

  • @chandrikasaha6301
    @chandrikasaha6301 6 років тому +16

    the camera thinks that all wisdom lies on the face of the speaker and nothing much on the slides

    • @mahdisamei3331
      @mahdisamei3331 4 роки тому +1

      @Rahul Ankarapu The slides are available here: ocw.mit.edu/courses/mathematics/18-s096-topics-in-mathematics-with-applications-in-finance-fall-2013/lecture-notes/

  • @riccaccio1
    @riccaccio1 3 роки тому

    does anyone knows where to search for the solution of the maximum likelihood parameters estimation when delta_j varies and it is not equal to 1? minute 35:20

  • @micel99
    @micel99 3 роки тому +1

    Does anyone know where to find the case study code? It sources the test_vol1b.r file including the fcn function, which is not available online. Thanks!

    • @mitocw
      @mitocw  3 роки тому +1

      The case study code for lecture 9 was not made available to us.

  • @jeffgao5942
    @jeffgao5942 4 роки тому +4

    Math Mike Pence > Regular Mike Pence

  • @nahshahehsha6794
    @nahshahehsha6794 3 роки тому +2

    Yo wen dyd Mike Pence stard teeching at MIT?

  • @WallaceRoseVincent
    @WallaceRoseVincent 6 років тому +3

    Anyone interested in working through the course together?

    • @randomYtuberr
      @randomYtuberr 6 років тому +1

      Hows it going so far ?

    • @sunnybae4921
      @sunnybae4921 6 років тому +2

      I would like to walk through the course together! Let me know!

    • @randiaz95
      @randiaz95 5 років тому +2

      me too

    • @bleacherz7503
      @bleacherz7503 4 роки тому

      @@sunnybae4921 I’ve taken this course

    • @riccaccio1
      @riccaccio1 3 роки тому

      @@bleacherz7503 Hi do you have the solution for the exercise on maximum likelihood parameters estimation for the geometric brownian motion case when delta_j varies and it is not equal to 1??

  • @anonimanonim8665
    @anonimanonim8665 7 місяців тому

    The paper of Parkinson is from 1980 not 1976.

  • @harryj1081
    @harryj1081 3 роки тому +1

    well if this was anything of practical use, volmageddon and GME squeeze wouldnt have happened, would it?

  • @nahshahehsha6794
    @nahshahehsha6794 3 роки тому +2

    Not writing on the board? At MIT? What a joke.

  • @InterShoreBankingExperts
    @InterShoreBankingExperts Рік тому

    give the super cougher some water.

  • @sebastiansantolalla9184
    @sebastiansantolalla9184 6 місяців тому

    LMAO bro said fenance 😭