Nassim Taleb on prediction, probability, and what Mandelbrot taught him about forecasting

Nassim Taleb critiques superforecasting and explains why he thinks probability can't be separated from payoff.
Full conversation available here: • Nassim Taleb - Meditat...
Full transcript available here: josephnoelwalk...

[@josephnoelwalker]

This long clip contains the context for Nassim's comments on probability ("probability is a kernel"; "you can have negative probabilities") that caused a stir on Twitter.
To appreciate his comments in context, watch this clip or-even better-read the transcript or his technical book, Statistical Consequences of Fat Tails.

[@behrad9712]

Brilliant talk thank you so much 🙏

[@raphaelr2128]

this guy is phonecian, I like it

[@mattsigl1426]

Love Taleb’s book anti-fragile, but I’ve always found him a difficult speaker.

[@trevmsmi]

Same, he reads superbly but not his speaking

[@naxim4778]

Please read his entire work before commenting BS, in Fooled By randomness he explains

[@Sam-bj6kb]

He's Lebanese so a native arabic speaker, his 2nd language is french and the third language is English. He's doing well imo

[@dr.mahmoudjarhaman9584]

One thing he will never tell you that at some point in his life he actually has a throat cancer!!.

[@naxim4778]

@@dr.mahmoudjarhaman9584 he had and its known

[@laurenth7187]

You need probabilities on something. Only talking about probabilities will give you no edge.

[@bhamers6019]

His comments on Napoleon were ignorant

[@user-CIGAxScape]

... it's obvious .