Neil Howe & William Strauss discuss the Turnings on CSPAN | 1997
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- Опубліковано 30 вер 2024
- Neil Howe and William Strauss appear on C-SPAN to discuss the release of their 1997 book, The Fourth Turning. In this clip, they discuss the historical significance of turnings, as well as offer prescient predictions as to where America may be heading. (1997)
What is most interesting is how since the day "Generations" was published, the so-called "scholars" have poo-pooed these guys and their unbelievably insightful work. And yet here we are living through their crystal ball.
This video is aging well.
There is a moive based on it, "Generation Zero." It is very informative, and parallels are abound. Also if you search, "the list of turnings," you can find a page from Lifecourse, or even Wikipedia that breaks down more details.
Way too well!
Aging better by the day!
How about now..... lol it's Oct 2022....
It’s now 2023 of dec. you have no idea how tight they were.
Watching this in 2021 in the fourth turning and reading their book, spot on, incredible.
Watching this in 2020...
this is eerie isn't it. Almost gives me peace on the other hand because it is a natural cycle
YES!!! So Relevant
There is a moive based on it, "Generation Zero." It is very informative, and parallels are abound. Also if you search, "the list of turnings," you can find a page from Lifecourse, or even Wikipedia that breaks down more details.
@@erniestennischannel8057 I don't know if it is how it was taught during my generation or my district yet history, specifically American history was taught to us by highlighting the cyclical nature of it. This was before they even wrote their book, and was not attached in such a way. They just made a point to point out how things repeated.
"In around 10 years time we will see a spark which will set off 20 years of crisis" - They are pretty spot on so far!
I didn’t notice ur comment 8 years ago ..
2020
Yo
2000's poor international trade deals begin to hurt the middle class. Schools also dump vocational training to be replaced by nearly all academic classes. No child left behind is past and begins to restructure the theories and methods of our education system for the worse. The government push is now for a middle class to be predominantly college educated. Government loans and financial aide for college increase greatly, in turn the rapid increase of the coast of college begins. A service industry class (restaurants, hairdressers, landscapers, etc.) starts to become the middle class, yet inflation outgrows what they make, and things like health insurance (which cost increase is also because of government aid), and pension plans are no longer common place like they once were so even if a service worker did make a good income, security is missing. The 90's were a mini 60's where culture such as movies, music etc. became much more raw than before, yet there was substance. Culture begins to become vapid. The reaction to 9/11 really was national. Although we experienced riots, and social upheaval in the 90's it was mild compared to the 60's and was immediately followed by prosperity. So we were not a divided nation, yet we were kind of apathetic to our national identity. 9/11 brought that back and we absent mindedly bought that we had to raid a country, then multiple countries to get Bin Laden. 9/11 was essential at the end of a recession that was labeled as "once in a lifetime financial crisis."
2008 An even greater financial crisis hits. We have been at war for about 7 years, which expanded, but it was only part of your conscious if you were directly effected. At that time it was our second longest war in a century but no one paid attention. The press helped to keep the blinders on, and the horrific images of 9/11 were still in the heads of many. People were not happy about the bailout, yet eventually many people began to say what we were told to say, "we can't have everything fall apart," "it will be a great depression unless we do it." And frankly many everyday Americans had a role in it too. The Tea Party sentiment really begin here.
2008 America's first black President is elected. Every generation celebrates it.
2010's Wikileaks Bradley Manning leaks exposes American crimes in the Middle East. We are at war for 19 years (if you are 19 years or younger we have been in war for your whole life). Snowden leaks, and Wikileaks spanning the decade expose corruption in our government. More bailouts at the start of the decade, and at the end. Severe racial agitation and power grabs by Marxist organizations. An existential conflict between dependency and independence is accelerating. Many of the issues spoken about in this interview are now part of mainstream conversation. Trust in media and congress is very low, yet trust in the President is on party lines, even though it is Presidents Bush 1 through Obama who pushed agendas that weakened the foundation and sparked counter movements. Trump exposed their roles to many. Currently half of the electorate has no trust in our democracy, little in media, little in institutions like school, etc. Yet all the more lockdown shenanigan's continue, more of the other half of America will lose trust, even in who they support. Bush was the laying of the fuse, Obama lite it, Trump accelerated it. It is going to get tougher before it is better.
Good call.
Reading 'The Fourth Turning' in 2021. Very accurate
Spot on 24 years later.
2021, these guys were prophets. Harry Seldons of our time.
Asimov forever!
Love The Foundation Trilogy........of four books.....or more!......of course.
They really weren’t, you are just extremely young minded.
Reporting back from 2022. Yup it sucks. They were right.
More elitist military insiders (CFR etc.) telling us how to think about their future planning.
Black rock? What's that?.....oh some investment bank...lol
23:13 he talks about boomer leaders toward the end of their tenure will be inclined to exaggerate problems in order to bring things to a final resolution.
We are certainly at this point now in 2023.
A lot of major turning point events occurred so far, but the biggest event of ten years from 1997 would be the financial crisis.
Occupy Wall Street was going to ignite the turning, But this was co-opted by Obama and the politicians owned by wall street themselves. Fast forward to today: cv19, vax mandate, unconstitutional and anti-western " passport systems" across the world, manufactured financial collapse, the great dumb reset - all fake and manufactured. The "elites" took advantage of the momentum and repeating cycles given here and are trying to control how civilization moves forward.
Economically, perhaps. But the passage of the PATRIOT Act and the transparent lying the kicked off Iraq II were significant cultural cleavage points that set the ground work for the tribalism we saw during covid.
And now we have con vid and associated problems with the v a xes leading us up to 2025
"we cannot predict how we will emerge"
this is a good example of why I prefer their original "Civic Generation" moniker to "Hero Generation". Millennials certainly have many of the traits they talked about in the book
- conformist
- teamwork oriented
- organized
- trust institutions
- more rationalist/trust of science over spirituality
Hero generation requires you to actually win. The defeated German and Italian soldiers in WWII were probably not viewed as all that "heroic", and the way millennials are turning out, it's not looking too likely that we will either. It's not about whether or not we can win (America has the strongest military might of any nation in the history of the world, probably by a factor of 10), but where the GIs were strongly patriotic and bullish on America, millennials tend to hold it in contempt, seeing being nationalistic as "racist" and patriotic as "ethnocentric".
I would suggest their usage of "hero" was motivated by placing a bit of advocacy over a straight citation of the facts. "These are the crop of children who will get us through the next crisis. Make sure you teach them to be strong and HEROIC or we might not get through as well as last time!" and in hindsight, I can't much blame them, but imo, it does get in the way of truly understanding the theory.
Deagel predicted in 2017 that in 2025 the population of the US will only be 100 million. Not only the US, but most western countries take a huge hit in population and GDP. This seems to coincide with a great crisis in the 4th turning which I think we've been building up to. Hope they're wrong or we're in for a VERY rough ride over the next 3 years.
I think the problems associated with the v axes will ensure that the Dea gel report comes true unfortunately.
Here we are in 2024 im a 32 year old millennial and i work extremely hard to make sure my kids are ready for adulthood. These last10 years i doubled my income and cut my bills in half yet my stand of living is getting worse
You've missed their point. They say the problems will only be solved collectively.
The last fourth turning vs this fourth turning:
In 1929, the Wall Street Crash kicked off the Great Depression. 12 years later, or 1941, Pearl Harbor happened and World War II came to America. The population in the United States in 1945 was 140 million, with 420,000 Americans, or 0.3%, being killed by the war. Between those two events was the starting of an entitlement, social security.
In 2008, the Dow Jones tanked which started another major recession. 12 years later, or early 2020, COVID came over from China to America. The population of the United States now is 332 million, with the official number of American deaths from COVID being at 1.13 million, or (guess what) ALSO 0.3% of the population. That's so far, of course. Between those two years was the starting of another entitlement, Obamacare.
And what is the role of the entitlement in the big picture as it pertains to collapse.
Holly shit 2020
Even holy shittier 2023!
Holy shitier x10- 2024
Priest warriors Lololololol. Boomers ate American civilization
Strong mean create good times, good times create weak men, weak men create hard times, hard times create strong men. Millenials rise and take your place in history, we have seen the rapid fall from grace and the zoomers know nothing else but this hell...
Im part of the same generational archetype as the GIs and I’m obsessed with this too!
Oh are you just like a General Infantrymen, do you even know what FM 7-8 is? "oh I'm totally something in my mind" shut up, you don't even rate POG, guy. I hate all these civilians who didn't do OEF/OIF but think they're going to go fight an insurgency... You're all a bunch of cowards
@@roguespearsf based.
Wow sept 2024 they we’re right on the money amazing
wow. I am speechless
Obviously you aren’t, because you just spoke.
"Into the late 2020s" H O L Y S H I T
This ain’t rocket science, we are reliving the “roaring twenties”. Ya’ll are pretending this is some brilliant insight. As Bob Dylan once said, “You don’t need a weatherman to know what direction the wind is blowin’”.
It's happening so what can we say ? Both authors excellent!
21:00 “If you’re one of the internet users out there” lmao
Neil Howe at 7:50 "...totally overshadowing the Silent Generation... who may never get in the White House..." Joe Biden: "Hold my beer."
yeah but barely. And its the newer people like Kamala and AOC who are running the show. Biden may be a joke, but Kamala and AOC are anything but a joke. Those who take the left-wing of the democratic party as a joke are destined to become jokes themselves.
@@noflexzone2.055 if you still buy into the left vs right dichotomy then you're as much a joke as those you're admonishing.... Our Founding Fathers warned us against this two party system because it inevitably becomes a uniparty. Embrace a third position. America is dead, it's a country for non whites now, time to balkanize and have an all white state
@@roguespearsf based.
@@roguespearsf I don't believe in parties, just that America returns to what America was
Your generation is LOST, because you only know how to speak in memes and clichès.
I CAN'T HEAR THIS
It was very quiet - I had to turn it up to max volume on my phone.
Recall that CSPAN shot this interview in 1997 (it was posted here in 2011). Note, read, and watch interviews of Neil Howe's 2023, The Fourth Turning is Here.
"This is what The Fourth Turning's website looks like if you're one of the internet users out there..." LOL
Exodus 20:5 Thou shalt not bow down thyself to them, nor serve them: for I the Lord thy God am a jealous God, visiting the iniquity of the fathers upon the children unto the third and fourth generation of them that hate me;
The Bible thousands years ago warned about the 80 year Generation Crisis .GOD`s Great Clock is almost striking midnight.
RIP my gen (I'm a Zoomer). Its up to us to fix this darn mess ayye.
@@noflexzone2.055 Pretty much summed up in the story of The Emperor wears no clothes. Your the 4th generation..
Dec of 2023 listening to this gives me chills. They weren’t wrong 😮
Why can’t you say “they were right”? Your generation betrays clarity and language itself when you speak in double negatives.
30:30
21:05 - Imagine being one of the internet users out there.
....
07:37 RIP Bob Dole
We’re doomed
WOW!
22:55 Warrior Priest... I wonder if that translates to “Warrior Poet”?
You're neither. You go to the front with the other untrained skirmishers. Us real soldiers will be there to clean up after you
@@roguespearsf based.
The elders in this boo mer gener ation weren't warriors - they just rolled over and took the sho t! 🙄