This is How Easy It Is to Lie With Statistics
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- Опубліковано 3 лют 2019
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This video is about how misleading statistics can be (even when the numbers are 100% correct).
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Well....we'll see what you guys think of this one. I know it's a little different from usual but once I read about a few of these stories I had to make a video about the topic. Hope you guys enjoy! Next video will be about the mathematics of crime and some of the things seen in the show 'Numb3rs'.
Loved the video. I also liked Numb3rs and cannot wait to see what you do with it.
Rossmo's Formula blew my mind
Edit: loved how you perfectly generalized people on the interwebs
It was interesting, I like these videos.
It was a spectacular video. Thanks a lot for those crime stories.
MajorPrep do videos on architecture and architectural engineering
Would you consider doing a video on game theory?
We interviewed 1000 people that have played russian roulette before. 100% of them survived the game. Conclusion: Russian roulette is completely safe to play.
1000 Jewish people were interviewed after being released from concentration camps. You know what, I won't go there.
yes , everyone survived.... with an unloaded revolver.
@@boombam9611 no no haha the only way someone could be interviewed after playing Russian Roulette was if they survived. It is impossible to interview people who have played Russian Roulette and died because of it, so of course any such interviewing would yield a 100% survival rate.
@@hrthrhs I’m pretty sure that’s the point of the original comment
This one is called survivor's bias. There's a good example of the Brits determining which parts of a fighter plane to add armor to, and they used the planes that returned to make the decision.
If you torture the data long enough, it will confess to anything.
Woah. Dark way of saying it, but I see you
@@SisypheanSeas13 perfect!
I'm "stealing" this quote, but I'll use in portuguese!
I might use this haha, brilliant phrase
@@claudiomaiasantos How do you say it in portuguese?
I found it disconcerting that I couldn't find the median life expectancy for most countries. Mean is very unreliable. It can be warped with outliers and noise. Median is far more reliable.
So when trying to compare the U.S. to Japan, I only found that the U.S. median life expectancy is 84.5. I have no idea what Japan's is.
7:00 "Dropout rates double, from 5% to 10%" is how I'd frame this data.
Yeah but logic doesn't get ad revenue
@@toby7161 based
...If media was honest.... FACEPALM CITY this is why I DON"T use FB....and other sites....yeah I know YT is not Immune to this tactic . . .....
Fun Fact '100% of People that commented on this video watch UA-cam at some point' lol
But politicians, and their advisors, can't use that information to improve their election, or re-election for that matter, chances
Downside is people may stop paying attention after "double"
I remember that I had a math exam where one of the tasks was to manipulate a diagramm to make one computer company look better than the other.
that is a really cool question, as it really drills home how unreliable statistics are, if you yourself can abuse it.
There's a cool example of this in the Simpsons Paradox, which can be used to fudge results for drug trials to the untrained eye.
@@yeckiLP in Germany we say "vertraue nie einer Statistik die du nicht selbst gefälscht hast", basically "never trust statistics you yourself didn't manipulate"
That’s sound so cool
could you share it or just describe the question?
@@ZaHandle That was like 5 years ago, all I've written everything I remember about it in the original comment
Statistics have shown that if you start a sentence with "Statistics have shown" people are more likely to believe you.
Lol
73.6% of all statistics are made up
@@ITR but other statistics have shown that that is, in fact, false
Fuck. You : )
I literally believed you quite a lot before finishing the sentence. Afterwards I realized that you started the sentence with "Statistics have shown" which made me realize that it already fooled me.... good one
BREAKING NEWS!
Teenage pregancy rates drop by 100%!!!! after the age of 19!
19! years is longer than a human lifespan
The rates only halve?
Lol
Magic Gonads
Here‘s the thing:
100% of X is X.
So if X increases by 100% (of X), it increases by X, so there‘s an additional X is added to the original X, which means that it was doubled.
If X decreases by 100%, it decreases by X, so there‘s X subtracted from the original X, which means that it went to zero.
Clearer now?
The comments in this one are hilarious because people are arguing statistics for 20 year olds who are no longer teenagers.
I read one on which countries had the largest increase in murder rates. New Zealand had an increase of 300 percent , however if you looked at the actual numbers they went from one murder in a year to 3 . I think I would be willing to take my chances
That's per 100k population. To put it in perspective, for that equivalent year, that's a 52% chance of being killed compared to living in USA. However, two years prior, there was only a 13% chance relative to USA, with a roughly 1/5 chance over the past 10 years. The reason I point out USA is all the gun-related deaths vs. NZ which has much stricter firearms laws.
However you look at 2.6 vs 5.1 (rounded) / 100k being high or low, it's interesting how many people say NZ is so safe and USA is dangerous -- future years will determine if NZ retraces lower.
Going from 1 to 3 is 200% increase, not 300%
@@nccamsc Lol again shows how unintuitive statistics can be
That's why you measured it per capita....
@@junkbond4882 According to wikipedia New Zealand had 126 cases of intentional homicide in 2019, a rate of 2.6/100k. During the Christchurch mosque shooting that year 51 people were killed, i.e. nearly half of all intentional homicide victims in 2019 thereby close to doubling the rate per 100k.
The 2017 mass shooting in Las Vegas killed 61 people. With total intentional homicide victims north of 20000 that year this event didn't have any impact on the rate per 100k for the US.
Context is key...
the story of the mother losing her children and being convicted with stats really hit me... like deeply.
yup. especially because of how messed up the case a whole was. they really fucked that woman over for a disease people are only just beginning to understand
The conviction was later overturned. On the second appeal it was shown the statistics from Dr. Meadow were incorrect and cases like that happen much more frequently than suggested by the figure (1 in 73mil).
Such is life my friend. Sometimes the whole world is against you even though you haven't done anything. Just remember that when you are judging other people in the future. Never think that there is no way you are wrong.
@@mrlantan3318 I remember reading about this, but I think the reason it was overturned was because as medical science advanced, they found some genetic reason for the deaths.
yeah it's super messed up...
"If 4 out of 5 people suffer from radiation poisoning, does that mean that the 5th guy enjoys it?"
-Codsworth, Fallout 4
Good one
lmao coddy is such a legend
Savage
I mean obviously, radiation positing feels fucking amazing and idk why more people don't like it
I love how the fifth comment talks about enjoying radiation poisoning
UA-cam occasionally gets the recommendations right.
Lol yes
Agreed. This has earned a sub!
Only around 14.3% of the time though
@@billyusher4907 76.3% of all statistics are made up.
Cant agree more
Lessons:
1. In graphs, always include 0
2. When giving percentage changes, always provide both percent increase (if it doubled, its a 100% increase) and percentage point increase together (if it went from 1% to 2%, it increased by 1 pp)
Including 0 isn't actually the pertinent part. What's important is having a consistent scale that includes 0.
You can have a graph that includes 0 but also has a break in its axis. Like if you have a graph with data in a field that goes from 0 to 100 but all of the data is grouped in the 80s, you could have the axis of the graph go: 0, 10 ... 70 80 90 100. This includes 0 but still suffers the same deceptive look as if it didn't.
I think a big one is --> BE CAREFUL OF DRAWING CONCLUSIONS WITHOUT THINKING
@@Strawberryfreak Well yes but that's kinda besides the point. It's easy to just tell people to think more, but the thing is people might not know _what_ or _how to think._ There's a difference between telling people to just be critical and teaching people to think critically. That's where knowledge comes in. Knowing there's a significant difference between percentage increase and percentage point increase is something to be learned. Or knowing how much it matters how the data was derived and out of which group the percentage is drawn from. It's never just "think about it first", it's also realizing what there is to think about, what do we mean by the fact points given. Out of those specified definitions and the context, a "fact" means nothing at all. Not everybody, without being taught to, realizes this matters. It's one thing to be sceptical about a statistics in a title of a news article. It's a whole another thing to know that news headlines aren't statistics, that just because something was said, the reality of the matter is only revealed once you know the details. People also easily assume a moral value for pieces of trivial information. Just saying the rate of dropping out of studies has increased, for example, doesn't mean we're saying it's a bad thing. We aren't saying anything at all about whether it's good or bad with that piece of knowledge unless we specify why and justify such moral evaluation separately. This is also one of those things a lot of people don't necessarily know or realize to question. Categorical scepticism isn't necessarily smart either, and this idea of never trusting what we're being told instead of practicing curiosity and aiming to _know_ more is what has contributed to mistrust in media and authorities of information. It goes from "think first" to "don't trust at face value" to "don't trust media" to "we're being lied to and new information should be categorically rejected because authorities of information are by nature untrustworthy". No, the point isn't to be sceptical, it's to understand what it means to say certain things and why it matters how things are spoken about. Being sceptical for the sake of it paradoxically doesn't make people any less susceptible for being manipulated, in fact less so.
My Grandpa used to say, “Figures don’t lie, but liars figure.”
So much truth in that. I’ve always kept that in the back of my head when I see statistics….especially statistics that push a narrative.
Cool
I remember my algebra teacher telling us about this, saying that statistics show people with bigger feet are better at math. None of us could have guessed that the statistic studied all ages, so it included babies and toddlers.
Damn, that's smart
Men usually are taller than women so they have bigger feet, does that mean men are better at math them women
@@lotuswolf1518 I mean statistically, guys are better at math, so I mean ig it does.
@@trevor987 women are more calculative though
That's why in my AP stats class my teacher made it a huge deal to put the context, the group we where studying, any stratification, the way we got the data, any sort of bias that could came up, and error we couldn't account for. Stats are so easily capable to be miscommunicated even if you meant well. Someone could take a number you put out there in good intention and use it to push an agenda while ignoring key aspects of the stat. A stat isn't just the probability, it's the context and situation it was taken with.
Since there are some people with less then 2 arms, the world average number of arms is somewhere below 2. Meaning if you have 2 arms you have an above average number of arms. Good for you!
You should see how the extra arm improves onanism.
Imagine if there is some human born with like 20 arms, we would all have less arms than the average human
@@martimsalvador9186 well, assuming there's more than 18 people with 1 arm less than 2 (not even counting those without any arms) then the 1 person with 18 arms more than 2 wouldn't bring up the average enough to make average≥2
@@allanknox8216 wayyyy rarer than a missing arm
Since there are alive people, the world average of deaths per person is around 80%
The dog/animal with 4 legs explanation is amazing. It captures the essence of the fallacy so well and packs it into a tangible example.
I ran into this recently with my job as an auditor. We evaluated the reasonableness of a company’s marketing expense by comparing it to revenue. The idea was that if their revenue went up, it was due to increased marketing expenses (I know there can be other factors too). Anyways, most months their expense hovered around 2% of revenue. One month it was 3.5%. My staff told me “that’s less than a 2% increase; it’s very trivial”. I said “that’s a 60% increase- it’s worth looking into”.
Yeah it’s interesting how people think about percentages
I spend the same on marketing each month and only make adjustments periodically. If sales are up one month it might be 5% of sales spent on marketing. If sales drop for a month it might be 8% spent. But I didn’t change what I spent.
My Statistics teacher told me "Statistics is like a Bikini, what it reveals is interesting, what it hides is crucial."
This is enlightening and makes me horny. The perfect comment.
Arnold What the fuck
I'm so going to use that one.
Lies, damn lies and statistics....Mark Twain!
@@digitalfootballer9032 same lol, i have a really important data visualization project coming up....
Food and water are overrated: you can live without them for the rest of your life
Night mare You right lol
You can also live the entire rest of your life without breathing.
-Vsauce
if u give a man fire he'll be warm for a night
but if u set a man on fire he'll be warm for the rest of his life
the people who passed by without liking this comment, should consider re-watching the video so that more brain cells can grow.
You can extend your life by consuming food and water.
Fallacy: Eternal life
10:55 I love how "Losing in Fortnite" is described as a third factor.
I feel enlightened. I'm not stupid by any means, but I obviously lacked basically all sense of statistics. It's unfortunate I wasn't ever introduced to the subject throughout my schooling. I feel like this video will make me think so much more than I have been. And... knowledge is power. Thanks, so much.
You seem so nice. I'd like to chat :)
I feel like statistics should be a required class, over something like trigonometry. You’re not using that in life unless you’re in a math heavy field, but statistics are everywhere
@@mikaelvirji5807Thankfully, where I’m from, it was covered in maths
"I feel enlightened" is what I think after watching any Zack Star video
Is statistics not a compulsory topic in mathematics there? Where do you live? In ours it was compulsory from I don't even remember when but I think it was middle school before we ever learned about trigs
"1 in 20 people is the victim of a crime."
"Which means 19 in 20 people are criminals."
- random british show
red dwarf may be random but it sure as hell isn't a random show
@@bickieditch9168 It was actually Diane Morgan idk what the show was probably in the description to this: ua-cam.com/video/QgCEbfRbK-0/v-deo.html
only in overly simplistic binary worlds
If you look in a dark ally, maybe
@@bickieditch9168 Red Dwarf? I thought it was BBC News they were talking about.
It’s like saying “ it’s easier to get into Harvard than a job at Walmart”
- Walmart acceptance rate - 2.6%
- Harvard acceptance rate - 5.2%
Walmart has a 2.6% job acceptance rate??
@@Claricio imagine like 1000 people a year applying for Walmart bc everyone can apply but Walmart only needs 3 workers
@caprice.t Yeah that's right, gotta look at the size of the sample, not only the proportion of the sample that's accepted into a job or a programme
@caprice.t One thing though. Its not easier, its just more likely. For the average person It would be easier to get tô work for Walmart, but since only people with a decent level of instruction apply to Harvard, its more likely that these people would succeed, but for a regular person It would be almost Impossible
I doubt Walmalt has a 2.6% acceptance rate, but it's not hard to imagine that out of all the Walmarts in the world, one of them somewhere has a 2.6% acceptance rate due to an overabundance of unskilled workers applying.
The really sad thing is not just how easy it is to deceive other people using statistics, it's also how easy people unintentionally deceive themselves using statistics.
If only my statistics professor taught like this, maybe I would have understood more. He always said something about "Only work with the data you are given", which works for school, but is obviously flawed in the real world (like in all of these examples)
Dad "my daughter is pregnant and she's due in August"
Target "we know".
what
@@Kamoojaan watch the video
That would be terrifying to hear.
@@Kamoojaan stupid
Maybe she was boinking Targets statistician
How many people have died on Earth? Everyone ever.
How many people have died on the Sun? Noone.
Conclusion: The sun is safer than the Earth.
Is there a fallacy for this?
Sorry, your first statement is OBVIOUSLY WRONG. If EVERYONE EVER has died on Earth -- who posted the video? Who's replying to you? Who, in fact, posted your comment?
@S J Yes, but what you WROTE was the EVERYONE that has EVER been on Earth, including those on it now, have died.
@@jdinhuntsvilleal4514 Well, he's right, he just posted in advance.
but some deaths have occurred in outer space
6:38 One is in percent, the other in percentage points. Thought you would include that in the video. Because yes, not many people know the difference.
I don't get it. Can you explain pls?
@@hienable6933 A difference between percentages is called percentage points. An invaluable concept if taking statistics serious.
Thanks for saying this ! I didn't know the difference and wanted to what was it :)
@Hi Enable
Percentage increase is based on what the value originally was and percentage points is based on how many percents was added. Let's say something went from 20% to 30%
That's a 50% increase from where it was, and it went up by 10 percentage points.
Hope that helps!
you could just say difference in percentage
Using statistics in court worries me a little since people should be proven guilty, not assumed guilty based on statistical models that are below 100%.
If the probability that the person is guilty isnt 100%, I say they go free.
@@mikaelvirji5807 Things are rarely 100%, but if there's not a convincing case and evidence then I think statistics should not be used in an attempt to sway the jury.
It can't be 100%. That is why they set the standard of "beyond a reasonable doubt".
Scariest thing about statistics is that the data doesn't have to be faked in order to tell whatever story you want to tell.
THAT WRONG
you simple do not know statistics
if i put half of your body in the freezer, and but half of you in the oven , and we make statistical analysis of your body temp
we will get your body is in IDEAL temperature
of course we know that you will die in this scenario
does statistic lie??
NO
the problem is YOU and you do not release what the number represents
it not a problem of statisitc mate
its a problem that people have not idea what the number represent
@@sonaruo That is rather harsh as OP did not say that statistics lie. He, in fact, stated that any story you want can be weaved by using the same data. You just decided to take the moral high ground when OP's claim was completely valid. I think everyone understands that statistics by itself is not the evil here. It is willful or unwitting use of incorrect or partial statistics that can potentially cause lot of harm.
@@AnkhArcRod
sorry mate but the wording is plain wrong
"whatever story you want to tell"
no mate you cna nto use the math to say that blanc is white and white is black you simpel can not.
but if the people do not know the numbers and the precise wording then people will assume something different because they consider the number represent something that it is not
thats not a fault of statistic or that statistic said that to begin with
example is the 100% and the 5% raise the wording is not the exact same its tiny different
so you know how to use that number they give you since they are 2 different things
the 100% is the rate of measurement while the 5% is the net increment.
when you are given that the wording is slight different so you can say what it is and use them properly.
now if the for the people the rate of changing something and the actual speed is the sam eis ther problem
my math professor said this word of wisdom
you think you do nto need math, what you teach today you will never use, but these numbers will be used in your every day life and because you will be unabme to understand what they represent they will maniip[ulate to do what ever they want.
because he have books written , we teach something to people it does not mean that all people will understand it and comprehend it
geee if that was truw 100% of the population will be scientist with doctor level and we will be going in another galaxy to settle down by now.
and statistic is easy and real straight forward to do it
if you want real massacre go is probabilities
the majority of the problems are counter intuitive and many times to sovle them and be sure that its the correct one
we end up brute force the problem
@@sonaruo And despite that, OP has over 9000% more likes than yours. Where does that put you?
@@sonaruo The OP of this thread basically said the same thing this video said. It is EASY to use statiscs to form a story that you want to happen, or you can use data to grant the impression you want by with holding context. Yes if you do not understand the data your more likely to belief it but if I said out of 1000 people who applied to a job with 400 openings 0% percent of women who applied where accepted. Its very easy to understand no women where given a job. This is the sort of situation that was talked about its miss leading and with holding info. If I told you 1000 people applied to become a male stripper and 1 women applied who did not get the job is very different intent of presentation to 100% of the women who applied did not get the job.
I hate % with a passion its easy to mislead as a 100% increase is alarming but you can also say there was a 5% increase for the same data. I mean you can even use that term a 100% increase if the sample size simply decrease. It depends if you look at all the data or just the increase. Look at house prices in NZ and you will see a misrepresentation of what they are increasing by as its better to use the 5% but if you want to create a panic or a rush to do something use the 100%.
100 percent of all air breathers die
conclution: dont breath
sounds like a plan
100 percent of all non-air-breathers also die.
@@ivystarlight17 conclusion: breathe
@@ivystarlight17 this is because 100% of people who have drank water die.
Conclusion: don't breathe or drink water
1 out of every 10 individuals can't spell
Conclusion: You should learn to spell conclusion and not conclution
PS. Its a joke don't get angry!
THIS is why studying math is so important! Makes me want to sign up for a statistics course...
dew it
Math is wonderful. Few things are more beautiful in life than math, pretty much nothing
@@lucazani2730let things better than math be epsilon>0....
“It makes life 200% easier”
It's been 11 months, how's statistics going?
A cool thing that my language (polish) has (and uses) that english really doesnt(that i know of) is having an established difference between "percentages" and "percantage points". You use the first one like multiplication so 5 percent + 50 percent[of 5] is 7.5% and the second one as adding 5 percent + 50 percentage points = 55%. This basically means that as long as you read the text accurately you wont be misled
80% of this video was brilliant. The other half was mediocre
😂😂
Other half... Hold up. 🤚🏻🤔❓
Lol.
80%
Other “half”
⭐️
/wooosh
So 10%?
Fun fact: People who can swim are more likely to drown than people who can´t.
this is a good one
@@aarontheperson6867 not really
@@kobakun584 ok
AaronThePerson it’s alright, he’s probably just one of the swimmers who drowned
@@kobakun584 people who swim spend more time in water, leading to more people drowning. Not learning to swim makes you more likely to drown if thrown in water, but less likely to drown in your life.
Statistical probability should never be allowed in court. It has no bearing on anyone’s guilt or innocence. That is why we use witnesses or physical evidence. Great job my hillbilly friend.
Witnesses aren't the most trustworthy source either
@@PeataPoeet But they can be cross examined to see if their story holds up.
Eyewitness testimony is, over all, is, far and away, the least reliable generally presented in criminal cases.
yeah I think that it's now no longer allowed in court. There are so many ways to make it look like one thing and be a totally different thing. The more qualities you rack up, the less likely a specific person in a group is to match that description, but it still doesn't prove it *was* them, it proves it's unlikely it wasn't them. It feels dirty to put someone behind bars not because someone saw them do it, finger prints were found and they had intent to do it, but because it's unlikely that anyone else fitting the description of the eye witness(s) exists in that city. I feel like it goes against the "innocent until proven guilty" rule of the courts.
@@tylerfitz2809 exactly
I used to teach this material in one of my college classes. Glad to see people are still recognizing how important this early form of "targeted marketing" was to the future of internet ads.
This should be the introduction of every statistics class
Youll be happy to know then that these examples are famous in the statistics world and actually *were* in the first few lessons of my probability theory course :)
@@MrWatermanx2 same, we didn't have the exact same examples, but the message was the same
stories are super common in marketing college classes... kinda old news actually. I went to college almost two decades ago.
Yes, it's how statistics can give you the power to lie, and how to use them to push your own agenda. Maybe they should teach this in highschool honestly.
It is, these are cliche examples that I heard in class years ago.
I took a statistics class in college. The textbook was literally called How To Lie With Statistics.
Liars can figure, and figures can lie. 😷🤧🙃😁
Fun fact - the author of that book "Darrell Huff" was actually a tobacco industry lobbyist and that book was a part of that propaganda. You can check it here: statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2012/04/27/how-to-mislead-with-how-to-lie-with-statistics/
@@aniksamiurrahman6365 Was that the inspiration for the movie "Thank You For Smoking" or are the two unrelated?
@@CynicalOldDwarf I haven't seen the movie. But sounds like it's a goon one. I'll look into it and let u know.
Bill gates has that same book.
Keeping this in mind is very important, especially in the world of media. You've shown how differences in presentation can twist public perception of an event. Now add the arbitrary choice of which piece of information is covered, the wording as well as many other factors and you can be manipulated, on purpose or not, and end up believing something completely untrue without anyone having lied.
This has just made me realize how easily I believe anything presented in a professional manner, and how easy it is to downright lie through a small omission of facts. It is truly scary.
Statistics is the art of never having to say you’re wrong.
Statistics: 95% chance of winning, you should take this bet.
*Takes the bet and lost
Statistics: I said a 95% chance of winning not that you will win, I can't help the fact that you're a loser.
100% statisticians made at least one correct statement about statistics, which many non-statisticians never have. Therefore, statisticians are more trustworthy. Which means you really should trust a statistician you just met more than you should trust a non-statistician you have known for your whole life.
@@Kasiarzynka Many is a tricky word in statistics. A responsible statistician will not use this word in this context as "many" can be interpreted as any number greater than 100. Since a non-responsive statistician has a higher rate of using misleading statistics, I will not trust you here.
13 100 50 100
It's the "science" that knows every other science better than the scientists in those areas without knowing anything about the science or so some of my former bosses think.
My father once told me "Figures don't lie but liars can figure." Good video. Thank you!
go figure
I’ve seen your comments on other videos lol, they must have been good comments for me to remember
IM liker 200
Ooo. Yo daddy smart.
my father once told me the world was gonna roll me
Thank you for this. I see statistical illiteracy and misrepresentation way too often
When I taught college-level statistics back in the 80s, I had one class session titled "How to lie with statistics" that went into examples just like these of exactly how people would try to mislead them with improperly used statistics. One of the other ones I covered was color scale manipulation with "heatmap" style graphs that use colors to indicate values. For example, a graph showing temperatures can influence what you think is "hot" or "cold" just based on what temperature is chosen as the midpoint of the red-blue transition. Or, two graphs can be shown side-by-side that have different color scales to make similar patterns look different, or vice-versa.
I love how he put "Losing in Fortnite" as a cause for bad grades and smoking.
Its legit. Losing makes you upset lol
@@khanhsp imagine starting smoking because you're upset lol
Imagine playing FORTNITE in 2020
@@hissingfaunaa oh yes, I never play games because I like them, just because they're popular /s
imagine not letting people enjoy Fortnite just because it's 2020
did you know: since there are women pregnant at any given time the average number of skeletons inside a human body is slightly higher than 1
Most people also have an above average number of limbs.
@@SuperSox97 Unless we also count the limbs inside pregnant women, in which case I'd need actual numbers before committing myself to an answer.
@@EvenTheDogAgrees you are forgetting that if anyone is missing limbs it brings the average under 4(2 arms, 2 legs) which means that anyone who has 2 arms and 2 legs than they have an above average number of limbs.
@@retrorocket9951 Like I said: _unless_ we count the limbs _inside_ pregnant women.
@@EvenTheDogAgrees ah sorry i thought you were saying that wouldn't be true unless we counted pregnant people. My mistake.
Not only are you the master of 90’s cable quality UA-cam comedy gold, but you’re like the cool math teacher in the 90s that actually gets me to be enthused in stat.
I was YELLING at my phone screen when I heard of that first court case, how could an actual statistician/mathematician make such an elementary mistake
People should understand the difference between "percent" and "percentage point".
5 in 100 increasing to 10 in 100 is a 100 percent increase, and also an increase of 5 percentage points.
I liked because I found your comment helpful. I was trying to remember how to say it. But I disagree with the notion that since people should know the difference, that gives us free rein to use percent changes without also specifying what the percentage point change is. Just because some people are ignorant doesn't mean it's right to take advantage of it.
i didn't know the name for it until i passed by this comment , so thanks for reminding me =)
this is so important, I was looking for someone pointing it out
@@ex0stasis72 go tell that to all the marketing departments that use this garbage to increase sales and make money for their company. I'm sure they'll be willing to stop because you feel it's unfair to all the idiots out there
Volume speaks volumes.......
So what did I learn from this video?
Losing in fortnite causes smoking and bad grades.
who even told you to play fortnite? just go for minecraft!
Fortnite Just freaking copies people they just freaking copied yandere simulator
@@kuljitminhas8707 in what exactly? i'm curious to know cuz i haven't played it ( and i'll never do)
Well ... at least now I know why I smoke and have bad grades ...
kuljit minhas lmao
Great video. I unfortunately know a lot of people who need to see this information, yet still argue statistics in ways that favor their own beliefs instead of challenge them. It’s frustrating for sure.
This is actually a very touching and interesting video. Dropping off a comment to let you know that your video made its way to my graduate school class discussion. Cheers!
I thought you said headlights instead of head lice, really got me concerned how people could think it was healthy
Same
#metoo
same here!
Using your headlights is unhealthy. Statistically speaking, people who use their headlights at night are more likely to die from disease or illness than people who drive at night without headlights.
Yeahh
A man once brought a bomb onto a plane because the chance of there being 2 bombs on a plane is astronomical.
LOL this comment should have the most likes 😂😂
Salim Chahine my stats teacher told me that and I never forgot.
This is the safest way to travel
@@danielzaiser how
Ok this is top comment
Thanks for the awesome video Zach. I’m taking stats for engineers next term and you made me actually excited about it.
The whole time I was thinking how the first few court examples given must be wrong... happy you were able to share the correct interpretations later
I thought the study was Colgate employees asking some dentists "do you recommend Colgate?"
And 80% of them saying "yes" and the rest saying "no."
*slides money to the dentist* you sure?
It's worse than that because they have to manufacture "80% recommend colgate" because nobody will believe "100% recommend colgate"
in the States they say "4 out of 5" which is probably a little clearer...and probably required by law
@@garygarypov5060 in brazil they say 9 out of 10 lol i guess it depends on the country (how they go about it)
@@hannalowercase5928 same for the uk, its 9 out of 10, my data suggests that 195% of countries follow that format
"the woman lost her children due to natural causes, was accused of murdering them, was sent to jail for 3 years, received a lot of public backlash, and died of alcohol poisoning 4 years later" jesus christ, that is just terrible
That is why a jury shouldn't make a decision based off of circumstancial evidence alone. No one should be found guilty unless forensics show that they are guilty.
@@CalebPaulk The jury was fucking retarded, by doing the statistic, they disproved the child dying from SIDS, not proving the mother killed it. I just dont get it...
It's called British Justice
@@we-are-electric1445 It's not as bad as yank justice.
@@Takkion Last time i checked, Casey Anthony was tried in Florida.
Dude, what an incredible eye opening video. Truly impressive and refreshing how much you got through while keeping it easy to understand and totally engaging beginning to end. Really liked how you used simple examples to demonstrate the concepts beforehand. Most of these statistical concepts we generally already have an intuition for, but just need to be laid out via familiar examples.
I used statistics to find your video. I looked at the first 4 videos in my youtube and searched until the next one seemed even better and this was it. And so far this searching method reccomended to me by a different video has produced a very nice time.
Three statisticians went duck hunting. When a duck flew overhead the first one shot and missed 3 feet to the left, the second one shot and missed 3 feet to the right, and the third statistician yelled "We got him!"
Then how did the 2nd one miss?
Because the average of the two shots was zero feet, or right on the target
@@user-gt2ds9lr2g I can't believe you had to explain that. Lol
I had an Electrical Engineering professor who said that “graphs with suppressed zeros should be made illegal.”
You have shown why professor Crosno was correct,👍
my temptation is to say “absolutely yes” but i think we might be better off trying to explain this phenomenon to as many people as possible because the people who are committed to lying might find a way around it if we make it illegal lol
Man I teach Excel. And for some reason Excel automatically sets other number different than zero in bar charts. The user has to perform some extra steps just to make the bar chart look like a real comparison.
I think it was just cause he was too old to deal with that crap
It depends SOOO much on context, though. If you were showing a graph of a person’s body temperature with vs without medication, starting the graph at 0 would make no sense because you would barely be able to tell a difference of 4 degrees, even though that can mean the difference between a mild fever and someone needing hospitalization.
@@spost1986 excellent point. 👍👍
this is the kind of stuff I fall for all the time without a second thought so after this video i'm gonna be more careful when I see statistics
This is rather important for the public to understand when ingesting the news 👍 Thanks for this! ✌️
Within my statistics class in college we actually had to identify misleading charts and graphs and explain how they were designed to mislead. I saw graphs that were upside down, with offset scales, and even the use of specific colors to elicit a response.
That's pretty low level manipulating that literally a 7th grader could tell was fishy.
@@rivershen8199 Whats crazy though, is that it still works even on people who know that.
So...AI have been removing my comment several times now because of certain words. So for this comment to make any sense, I need to clarify what I mean by certain words:
LowVibb19 = that thing that is spreading around the world that people are shit scared of even though it has a 99% survival rate.
Max = That thing that they want you to take into your bloodstream so that a certain industry can earn billiions of dollars even though it doesn't even work as intended.
Now here's my comment:
Here's another one for ya: You can also cheat with the statistics with how you define something. For example: They don't define a person as being fully Max'ed until two weeks after they've had the 2nd LowVibb19 Max. So anyone who gets seriously injured or die right after the first Max or within the first two weeks after the 2nd Max, will be defined as "un Max iated" in the statistics. So all the hundreds of thousands and maybe millions of people world wide who have been seriously injured or died from the LowVibb19 Max will not be counted in the statistics. Clever, huh? I personally know several people this has happened to.
@@DolphinsPlayingInAquaMoonlight This isn't statistics, it's a bait
@@DolphinsPlayingInAquaMoonlight Thats the dumbest shit i have heard in a while tbh
I have a degree in statistics. You did a very good job explaining these nuisances and yet this is still only scratching the surface of how wonky and manipulative statistical techniques can be.
It is a really good start though. I can't seem to reach anyone that doesn't already mildly understand how a statistic is even brought into fruition, nevermind the why. This introduction on the topic will likely save me at least an hour of my next conversation when pointing out the way media covers current events. Such as the scamdemic and inflation, or our country's spending vs GDP. These media outlets utilize these same techniques to sway people into voting for Representatives that are going to push legislation that, at the core, doesn't make any sense.
I don't have your credentials, but I do have 6 undergraduate and 6 graduate credits in statistics. I agree with you that David did a good job but there are so many other ways people lie with statistics. One of the big ones is when a single study comes out to prove a point and it's taken as gospel. Most people aren't aware of the need for an independently replicated study that produces the same results, they just assume the solo study is valid.
@@danielreshenterprises6174 well said. I agree 100% with the notion that one study without peer review is opinion, not science. The great thing about science is that findings are open to be replicated and if there are different results, we can all learn why. The best question and, in my opinion, the beginning and demise of our mortal selves, starts and ends, with the question, "WHY?".
@M M that is a very good point. This is where intellectualism and understanding of where the "peer review"originated from, comes into play. I preached to my son constantly, who recently turned 18 years of age, that the device that is in his pocket has unlimited knowledge. Back in my day we had to consult the encyclopedia Britannica. It is much easier today to learn about something, anything, that we don't already know.
@@RdeneckTech DING!
Watched it years later and was still helpful great job on just giving information while keeping the video not biased
Very informative video. I want to think that I'm open to view things from different perspectives and not judge too soon. I knew most of what you said about statistics and it's a very dangerous tool that can mislead a majority of people.
The Sally Clark case is so sad. Imagine losing both of your infant children because of something you cant control- and then getting sent to prison and demonized for what happened to you.
I really hope that Sally and all of her immediate family members genetics were taken into account because rare genetic disorders can be very prevalent and over represented in a family with a faulty genetics
This video will probably definitely help you irl
I just don’t understand how a doctor couldn’t see how those two events could be reasonably dependent, not independent. I have little medical education, but even I could assume immediately that someone who gave birth to a dead child once may reasonably have some type of health condition that could lead to a second problematic childbirth.
@@dathunderman4 well the prosecution was operating under the assumption of guilt: they found a doc who would say what they wanted and didn't waste time trying to see if it actually held up scrutiny
The case of Sally Clark sounds very similar to a now proven link of genetic defect causing death in very young. 60 Minutes Australia aired a similar incident of a woman, jailed so far, for 18yrs, her surname Folbigg, last night 29Aug2021. She lost 4 young children. She has lost her latest appeal based on the statistics rather than the new scientific study.
It’s almost like the context of data is removed on purpose to generate a narrative that looks better for a particular group. It’s a weird world where people both don’t believe in numbers but vow by numbers when it’s convenient.
Most if it boils down to the fact that most people are not mathematicians, but also don't want to seem dumb by admitting they didn't learn enough about mathematics to understand what the numbers actually mean. if people would worry less about what they seem to be and start to worry more about what they actually are, this might chance, I doubt it will be any time soon.
*change
One of the troubles there though is the hired gun. In the video example the prosecution was able to hire a mathematical gunslinger to argue their case for them. Either he was incompetent or dishonest in doing so. The defense was apparently unable to find a gunslinger of their own to explain the problems with the prosecution's argument. Not everybody's lawyer happens to date an expert.
Whatever else I did with my degree in math, I was resolved that I did not want to be a gunslinger for some corporation (or think tank with an agenda). Yet doubtless I might have made a better living as a gunslinger and be highly regarded in society. I might even be able to tell myself that I was shooting on the side of justice.
@@BlacksmithTWD This is part of the problem definitely.
At the same time, there is also a large element of confirmation bias as OC says. If it supports our narrative or fits our worldview, it's extremely credible and transparent. If not, we find 1,000 things to criticize about it.
yea almost
🎉 This video is a true example of the impotance of getting the whole storey, and not stop in the beginning and make fast decisions. 😊
You’ve explained everything extremely clearly & gave really good examples. Thank you
The whole thing reminds me of a quote a friend whose into this sort of thing told me once. "Nobody who wants you to think a certain way ever tells you the whole story"
Context is everything.
To be fair though, it would take too long to tell the whole story of most things, and you're assuming the person you're speaking to is educated and aware enough of both sides already
@@Christoff070 The real trick isn't to lie to people. The real trick is to get people so emotionally invested in what you're saying that they'll believe in it even when faced with conflicting evidence that is true OR false. You can pretty easily get people wound up into what you're selling without lying, too. You just need a couple half-truths and a superficial comparison or two.
@@ScrambledAndBenedict the political grifters of the world know this well
Your remark indicates to me that "Nobody" wants me to thing a certain way
Person A: "hmmm lotion and vitamins she might be pregnant "
Person B: "Yeah, that and the pregnancy test that was purchased."
Theres a lot of people who purchase pregnancy tests that end up not being pregnant. Prenatal vitamins might actually correlate better since people who are trying to get pregnant or know they are pregnant purchase them.
Zachary Walter it was a joke lol
@@officergreg1318 Yeah, for sure. It still missed the point that was made in the video though. The guy was talking about women that already knew they were pregnant and how shopping patterns might reveal who they are. Women that already know they're pregnant don't buy pregnancy tests. Still, I like the joke.
Or that they stop buying proud products
@@Alchatraaz938 Good to know
I love a good rollercoaster video. Thanks for sharing!
This is why things are so difficult to trust. Data is skewed to a point that you constantly have to read between the lines and verify. It's truly exhausting
"High school dropouts have *doubled* from 5% to 10% this year, bringing the total to 2."
60% of the time, it works everytime.
anchorman?
There are 20 people in your high school?
"the doctor say he's got a 50-50 chance of living, though there's only a 10% chance of that"
@@Ignirium I've heard that before, what show is that from?
A 10% chance of a 50/50 chance would make it a 5% chance, right?
@@zchettaz Naked Gun 33 1/3! the Original joke before Anchorman made theirs - i reckon they knew about it.
Since women have 1/2 of their fathers DNA, women are 50% their dad. Mathematically, whenever you have 1/2 or 50%, you always round up. So, after rounding, women are roughly 100% their dad. This makes them 100% a man. Therefore, statistically speaking, loving a woman is loving a man, thus making it gay.
kekw
omegalol
The percentage of DNA inherited from your father is slightly less than 50%, and men actually inherit a slightly higher percentage of their genetic material from their mothers. The reasons for these quirks of inheritance are due to mitochondrial DNA being inherited from the mother and y chromosomes containing fewer genes than x chromosomes. The differences are small enough that they rarely matter but they are real.
@@garethbaus5471 then it’s still gay
This is called a circular argument which uses itself to explain a fact , was explained in ancient greek times as a fallacy , but i see the humor behind it.
This was a pretty fun video to watch. Thanks for making it.
One of the most informative videos I've seen this year 👏🏽
I thought he said headlights not head lice. Which confused me for a while.
Well headlights are healthy. Specifically when using vehicles in the dark
When he brought up the Middle Ages, I had this weird image of medieval knights in full plate armor with pop-up headlights attached to their helmets.
me too
same
Yeah I was like uhhh wut kind of nonsense is this now??
Birthdays are healthy: the more you have of them, the older you will get
Birthdays are unhealthy. The more you have the closer you are to dying.
Agent J yes, lets measure the worth of a life by counting the number of birthdays celebrated.
and what feelesh meant was that the same data looks very different if viewed thru a different lens
@Agent J you can't remember if you're dead (The dark humor has gotten to me)
@@abhaysreeram978 Spot on. Agent J has to post garbage on here because the schools are closed.
Neither are you, after the heat death of the universe all life will cease to exist
One of the best videos I've ever watched! Eye opening!
That Target case is why I don't use my drugstore loyalty card on certain purchases. The laws have almost definitely changed since then, but it still leaves a barely-rational scar in the back corner of my psyche.
I was sooo confused when he started saying people who had head lights were healthier... Then I saw the word "head lice" appear on my screen and felt really stupid.
However people who own cars (thus have headlights) are probably wealthier than those who can't afford cars and wealthier people can then also afford medicine etc.
But was that really causation or just correlation?
I thought the same thing but it was the people being lit by the headlights who were healthier.
SAME
Illianor123 you must not travel much. Most people don't own cars and managed to hit 80+ fairly easily. There's literally no correlation between being owning a car and the potential state of health of a person.
MrBeast: BUYING ALL OF TARGET'S LOTION IN 100 LOCATIONS
Statistician : WHAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA
Alexi what?
@@lukedavies2406 Did you like youir own comment
@@lukedavies2406 Maybe you don't know, but mrBeast is a popular rich youtuber who buys a lot of random stuff and gives money away like crazy
it's called an outlier. . .
@@bk-sl8ee You replied to the wrong person, but good one xD
Wow, very persuasive examples. Good work!
Damn bro. Opened my eyes wide apart with these. Thanks for the video
For court cases. Statistics should only be used as supplementary evidence to actual hard evidence. It's terrifying to hear or believe that entire cases were set guilty purely on statistics.
Hard agree.
If there is any hard evidence proving guilt/innocence in the first place, then why bother with statistics ?
@@Eclypso02 proving guilt has to be 99% beyond any reasonable doubt. Sometimes statistics can push it over the boundary. It's all about convincing the jury.
@@Eclypso02 Because you don't know what the defense will say regarding the proof. Statistics can make the defense tougher, but I don't think anyone should use statistics as the only argument of guilt.
Or "science", the next most misleading source of information. Science is always changing and updating, and when people get the idea in their heads that "science" is a hard-core, reliable vault of absolute certainty, they turn it into tyrannical dictators.
A couple of my favorites on the subject:
Figures don't lie, but liars do figure.
67.8% of all statistics are made up on the spot.
and is this one of them?
@@sudhanvakashyap297 Absolutely.
Lol I love it!
I had a brain fade for a second there
83% of statistics used to win arguments are made up on the spot.
Please update your data. ♥ ♥ ♥
This is a great video. Depending on the intelligence or education of your audience, you’re going to get vastly different answers. That in itself just shows how important communication is when delivering statistics, because if your data is communicated towards the lowest common denominator, then you should simplify the statistics and state it in the easiest way to understand, not the most accurate number itself.
I’ve seen this video before and have been looking for so long to find it again
The average person has less than two hands.
Isn't "the average person" similar to "a randomly selected person"? Would a way to create the same effect be "the average number of a person's hands is less than two" or do you have something better?
@@JonathanLyons7 "a randomly selected person " is the most common value, also known as Mode. The average is just compiling and comparing, most people have 2 hands, then you have a small amount of people that have 1 hand so the result would be something like 1.993 (I'm making up the number and also taking the possiblity of having more hands rather than less out of the equation as I assume that is at least less common). Which technically is less than 2.
@@JonathanLyons7 so if out of 20 students, everyone gets a 50/100 then the one person gets a 0, the average would be 47.5, technically less than 50. The example given by the previous user highlights an extreme case of this
The median number of hands is 2.
The average person has an above average number of hands
New study shows that on average, every human has one fallopian tube
This statistic is wrong, since in fact, most people don't have any fallopian tubes, except for Fallopian Georg, who has 8 billion in his possession. This makes him an outlier, and he shouldn't be counted.
@@samuelisaac2984 just thats how statistics can work, thats why they can be interpreted pretty easily to proof whatever you want to proof; and for such statements its irrelevant if its an outlier or anything and it is still correct; like you said "shouldn't" be counted, but that does not mean, that he won't be counted
@@minutenreis r/whoooosh buddy
@@mollytaylor8122 r/itswooooshwith4osand1h
On average people have less than 2 legs.
I live in Mexico. Due to bureaucracy and pollitics, the legally official number of child adoptions in the whole country during one year was like 9 children (yeah, in the 120+ million people here), and the next year it was 27.
The news headlines said "GREAT NEWS! ADOPTIONS WENT UP BY 300%!".
Damnit Zach you reignited my passion for stat that my teenage self lacked the discipline to truly study more than I had to even though I still carry the basis with me to understand what you’re talking about.
Main takeaway of this video:
Losing in Fortnite -> Smoking
Truly
Ong
Losing in fortnite is not smoking
@@LavaCreeperPeople I lit up my first Doobie after grabbing a fat L in FN
Losing in fortnite -> heroine addiction
For the “5% or 100%” question, the correct way to say it is either "the rates has increased by 100%", or "the rates has increased by 5 percent points". if you say the rates has increased by 5%" you mean that it has gone up from 5% to 5.25%.
Thank you 🙏it really bothered me in the video 😅
these verbal missleads should be illeagal as language accurecy is imporatant for delivering correct info... someone should be brain washed to be extemely honest and be the employer in some news company so that we will get only correct numbers said in a none misleading way
the media has the obligation to avoid misleading statements and make things clear. in this case, I would avoid putting a figure in the title and use the actual numbers in the first paragraph.
And there are SOOOOOOOO many misunderstandings caused by people not knowing the difference between percentage and percentage points.
how about just, "it doubled"
My #1 all-time favorite example of lying with statistics is the “Marijuana is a gateway drug” claim. Something like 90% of heroin addicts were found to have started with MJ, so this was supposed to ‘prove’ that the use of MJ almost inevitably led to harder drugs. In order to demonstrate the cause-and-effect relationship, you have to start with a large RANDOM sample population, filter them for previous MJ use, and then examine their current use of drugs.
I've always said the real gateway drug is caffeine!
Did you know that 100% of heroin addicts drank milk before they turned to heroin. Obviously we must ban milk!
That's true that's a way to lie with statistics they prove a unrelated conclusion with unrelated evidence but that does show something: most heroine addicts started with marijuana and because that is true reducing marijuana we reduce the amount of future heroine addicts
It's false to say that it proves if you use marijuana it will likely make you a heroine addicts it is true to say based on the statistics that reducing marijuana would reduce the amount of heroine addicts as if that 90% weren't exposed to marijuana how likely is it that they become heroine addicts
@@Bacon2000. Perhaps surprisingly, it doesn't show that reducing marijuana would reduce future heroin addicts. All it shows is if you selected a heroin user they would be a 90% chance to have earlier had marijuana. That's it, that's the extent of the meaning. It is pure correlation and therefore says nothing of causation. Our brains can then create a narrative where the causation seems likely but this is an error as outlined in the video.
Imagine hypothetically that 100% of heroin addicts were abused as kids and 100% of people who were abused have tried marijuana. In this case it's easy to see why cutting down marijuana consumption could easily make absolutely no difference to the amount of future heroin addicts.
@@Bacon2000. Moving from marijuana to heroine is less to do with exposure to the drug and more to do with exposure to illicit drugs. People move from marijuana to heroine because they see that the propaganda about marijuana is false, so they assume that it is probably also false in regards to other drugs. Also, a lot of marijuana dealers also sell heroine.
By legalizing marijuana with the same message as alcohol (its fine as long as you use it responsibly), they can buy consistent quality marijuana at a licensed store, without being exposed to more dangerous substances.