August CPI solidifies 25bps cut from Fed: BMO economist

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  • Опубліковано 16 вер 2024
  • The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) reading came in line with economist expectations for August, with prices rising 0.2% month-over-month and 2.5% year-over-year. Core CPI - which excludes food and energy costs - rose by 0.3% month-over-month, slightly above estimates.
    This inflation print comes ahead of the Federal Reserve's September FOMC meeting next week, where it is widely anticipated the central bank will begin to cut interest rates.
    To talk more about the data and what it tells about the Fed's rate cut plans, BMO Capital Markets senior economist Jennifer Lee and Yardeni Research chief markets strategist Eric Wallerstein sit down with the Morning Brief team.
    Both Lee and Wallerstein agreed that a 50-basis-point rate cut was never "in the cards" for the Fed, Wallerstein commented.
    "This report, this would be the fifth decent report in a row for the Fed, giving them the comfort and the confidence to cut again or to start cutting," Lee tells Yahoo Finance. "And I think 25 basis points is a good place to start."
    Regarding a stock market (^DJI, ^IXIC, ^GSPC) response to rate cuts, "I think if they [the Fed] went 50, equity markets would fall and bond markets (^TYX, ^TNX, ^FVX) would rise. I think it would signal the economy is, heading in the wrong direction. You know, we're behind the curve and then it would... kind of unleash the volatility (^VIX) that we saw with some of the carry trade unwind, as Japanese rates and US rates come closer together," Wallerstein says.
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КОМЕНТАРІ • 22

  • @jaym9846
    @jaym9846 5 днів тому +3

    Woohoo! My credit card rate will drop from 21% to 20.75%

  • @FlaminHotChips
    @FlaminHotChips 5 днів тому +1

    .25 literally does nothing.

    • @Dustyphoto915
      @Dustyphoto915 5 днів тому

      @@FlaminHotChips That’s good because nothing needs to be done.

  • @StewieGriffin
    @StewieGriffin 5 днів тому

    Powell can announce a 100 point cut
    and say after
    If inflation reignites, we will pause rates

  • @Delanoay
    @Delanoay 5 днів тому

    They're not cutting rates. I can't wait to see when they say no.

    • @jasondiehl571
      @jasondiehl571 5 днів тому +1

      There’s a zero percent chance the fed doesn’t do at least a 25 basis point cut. Small chance of 50bps but not likely

    • @Delanoay
      @Delanoay 5 днів тому

      @@jasondiehl571 you willing to put money on that?

    • @jasondiehl571
      @jasondiehl571 5 днів тому

      @@Delanoay yeah definitely

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    @JohnyTerr 5 днів тому

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      @JohnyTerr 5 днів тому

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  • @MatthewMS.
    @MatthewMS. 5 днів тому

    *twenty five bps* finally here, ALL year this has been annoying.

  • @hitpat6179
    @hitpat6179 5 днів тому

    Yes, lets make decisions BASED on Amrika gov. department of statistics data!!! lol!!! The eCONomists ALWAYS get it right!!!

  • @ThaBroskeez
    @ThaBroskeez 5 днів тому

    When they tell you everything looks good this is when to be cautious - in tech alone the jobs in the last week have declined significantly - mentioning the September surge it doesn’t exist this year - that alone should be cause for serious concern - a 25 basis point cut in September would be a slow response that will trigger a recession once the jobs data comes out in August

    • @AbdulSalam-zt2kz
      @AbdulSalam-zt2kz 5 днів тому

      50 basis point is worse. I hope they do not cut or 25 basis point at max

    • @jose09841
      @jose09841 5 днів тому

      How will the jobs data come out in August if we are now in September??