Deep Dive 27/08/2024 - Storms seasons & a more settled spell- Met Office weekly weather forecast UK
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- Опубліковано 13 вер 2024
- This is an in-depth Met Office UK Weather forecast for the next week and beyond. Today we are joined by Will Lang, Head of Situational Awareness at the Met Office looking at the recent storm season and why there were so many named storms as well as a look ahead to the 2024/25 season. There is also some more settled weather to come as we head out of meteorological summer and into autumn. Bringing you this deep dive is Met Office meteorologist Aidan McGivern.
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We are the Met Office, the UK’s national weather service, and every day of the week we bring you a morning weather forecast and an afternoon weather forecast so that wherever you are in the UK we have you covered.
Forecast and any weather warnings are accurate at time of recording. To ensure you have the most up to date weather information, check the hourly forecast and live warnings on the Met Office website or app.
Request for a future deep dive - a wider look at the 4 (?) jet streams that exist in general around the whole planet. Would be great to see them animated and explain how or if they interact with each other.
Agree,original idea which would be great.
Great topic
@@FlyOzonePara That’s a great suggestion. I like it very much. 👍🏻🏆
July had to be the cloudiest in living memory. Hardly saw the sun through the
month in the west of the country.
Meteorology has always fascinated me so I love these deep dives. Very informative as usual Aiden. My dream job when I was a lot younger was to be a meteorological observer in the RN but never happened through personal issues. Thanks again Aidan x
One of the best regular videos on UA-cam, and one of the finest presenters. I really enjoy the weekly deep dive, ten day trend etc.
I understand naming the storms, But why such nice names? How about calling the next storm. "Storm trampoline killer!" Or "Storm shed destroyer!" So we have a better idea what to expect.
thank you, a next level evolution of a weather forecast, not just "what" but "why"!
Brilliant - thank you! I've had a weather station in my back garden (north Worcestershire) for 16 years; 7 of my 20 wettest days have been in the last 12 months; two of the top 3 were in a week (55mm of 20/10/23, 46.8mm on 13/10/23, #2 and #3 in my list respectively). October 2023, unsurprisingly, was my wettest month on record with 192.8mm, December 2023 is #3 in my wettest months list, July 2023 was #5 and February 2024 #7......!!
Yes please, love the deep dives. It informs interested people like me and no doubt farmers and other people whose lives depend on the weather to influence what they do
I always look forward to Tuesday's Deep Dive,thankyou.❤
Alway enjoy deep dive
This has to be the best met UA-cam stream , well do on all the explanations .
Keep up with this ❤
Oops well done 😂
My favrile time of year is starting , I love cold weather fall and winter days, Thanks Met office deep dive team, science as always .. this summer has just been useless to hot and just to wet windy. Hot one day cold the next .Welcome to Briton? , Guess for all you warm weather movers , Hope next year is better for you all..
Thanks Aidan, cool stuff as usual. Couple of geeky insights: what is going on with Barra and Tiree? See 3:54 - I noticed since January that whenever you show these temperature differences compared to the average, these 2 isles stand out as >+9 degrees or so! Could you please have a look at the stats and possible reasons behind? It would be cool nerdy stuff to watch about these two isles or other extreme places in UK (idea for future deep dive topics?).
Another interesting comparison would be if by the end of season you could retrieve the seasonal forecast and compare it to actual stats observed. This is reoccurring ask that many of us, weather nerds are very much interested in :) I figured that it could be even the same format as the graph shown at 29:17 just with additional column of observed stats.
Anyway, cool stuff, keep it up!
Thank you both of you
Very many thanks indeed Will and Aidan for an excellent Deep Dive!!! It’s brilliant that next week will be good weather, we will be away for a few days in the New Forest, I know now there could be a few iffy days, but fingers crossed 🤞.
I love Will’s talks about the storms, many thanks Will. Thanks again Aidan and to the Met. Take care everyone!! 😊
Really enjoyed this episode thanks, tbh one of the best so far.
Always enjoy the deep dives and find them informative (its good to see the ensemble models getting mentioned for the public)....even if I am cheekily thinking "So autumn will probably be wet and windy....who could've guess that"😉😇
Thanks again for the clear explanation. Following the Met Office from Belgium as we lack these kind of deep dives 😢😊
Thank you, Aidan
Great deep dive.
Take homes:
* end of August into first week in September should bring us the calmest period of weather we've seen for weeks if not months
* climate change, Britain gets warmer and wetter and windier. This is what climate change modelling has indicated and is in fact what is happening.
Is it more unpredictable than it's ever been?
17 days with sunshine this summer in Scotland. Some with clouds most with rain at some point. Had rain almost every day and night since April. Even had heating on in July and August. This evening was sunny but our temperatures have been 11 degrees to 15 on average. Weird if you ask me.
brilliant summary, thank you.
Love all the science too. I look forward to these every time.
Thank you
As a fisherman this is sad news again , another long season of high winds and rain , very interesting forecast ,
Hopefully we'll get a warm dry settled autumn and winter.Hate the cold,wet windy weather.Thanks for the video
My wife hates rain and very gusty strong winds. she gets fed up her umbrellas getting blown inside out and breaking and her dresses or skirts blowing up like marilyn monroe.
Thanks for the detailed information as usual.
Thank you Aiden, our weather has always kept us guessing what's going to happen, & that naughty jet stream does like to play around, but your deep dive program it is interesting
The complexity was well explained. Thank you. Having an expert onboard also helpful in appreciating the overall background
All golly good fun in UK!
So enjoy all your videos, especially the deep dive. I'm following the astronomical summer, which ends 22nd September. I want to keep the summer as I get S.A.D. Thanks
Thanks for including Ireland
It seems to me that the UK is the most difficult country in the world to forecast the weather? Great deep dive today very interesting thanks!
I've quite enjoyed the wildness of this summer 😅
Fascinating as always. Love these science of meteorology videos. Keep them coming!
I would love a deep dive on SSW and what are the factors that determine whether or not we have adverse effects or not
This is my second summer in SW Scotland and my heating bills are through the roof already😮!
I'm hoping for at least one calm week around 19 October.
Thanks! 🔥
I live in the north pennines and I spend a lot of time in the north west and I can say with some confidence that it has rained most days since September of 2023.
This has actually made me consider moving down south 😂
Thanks , very informative.
Would love a deep dive on the shipping forecast and aviation forecast in comparison to general
Great idea
Always informative - many thanks Aidan.
Great presentation this week (always better when some decent weather predicted next week for the north west England).
Found the seasonal prediction interesting, but for comparison it would have been good to see the details of the prediction for autumn 2023. Please could that be included next time?
the area map with the blue orange and white almost looks like the union jack :) thanks for all the quality information and taking the time to provide it, very grateful
Hi Aidan,
Great show as always every activity I do is governed by the weather, be it skydiving surfing or mountaineering. I’ve been an avid weather watcher for the last 35 years. Could you please explain a bit about Hadley cells and the adjoining Ferrell cell that sits over the Uk and how that can also make our weather just a little more unpredictable please.
I never knew that low pressure can be formed from the jet stream at entry and exit,so thanks for that last week really interesting. I remember when they used to show us the isobars on the nightly weather forecast years ago. They were so useful to the things that I love to do. Now I just look up the low pressure surface charts on the met office, So these deep dives are great for a longer range forecast thank you very much once again.
Nicely done, Aidan, thank you.
Thanks for the deep dive. You briefly touched on what influences the position of the jet, but was wondering if you could expand on this. It seems to be so critical to our weather. Many thanks
I fly general aviation. I find these deep dives very helpful for flight planning along side the met office Form 214 and 215. Amazing work, Exeter
A temperature symbol over Dublin on the chart! Can we build on this a bit and maybe include more detail over the island of Ireland?
I love these videos and all your content on UA-cam, keep it coming. More info on the AMOC please, there was a report about it changing much more quickly. Also will the volcanic eruption in Iceland.
Thanks for the Deep Dives, they are very interesting. Can you include Ireland 🇮🇪 in your mentions about the weather or do you not collect data on the rest of Ireland apart from the northern 6 counties?
These deep dives are great
When you display a chart, as you did today, with lots of small detail, could you get the camera to zoom so we can read the values please? The wind chart would have been great to see windspeed local to us.. Otherwise excellent and interesting. Thank you.
my wife always looks out for windspeeds in our area.
Love the deep dive and 10 day forecast, will we ever get a nice 10 days before we head into autumn please 🙏 I'm sick of the rain 🌧 love from Ireland 🇮🇪
In Scotland we don’t get 2 days of sunshine strung together.
Nor dry days
@annecoyle5811 I'm just sick of this weather I'm gonna have to go abroad next month by the looks of it
Very informative updstes.
I read economics at university many years ago and I'm always struck by the similarities between forecasting in economics and meteorology. Both disciplines are trying to understand extremely complex and dynamic environments which means the best we can do is forecast probabilities not certainties. The public always want more certainty and seem to remember when a forecast is wrong rather than when it is right, economists and meteorologists would probably get on well in a pub. 🤣🤣🤣🤣
I have a question for you.
There are statistics for rainfall, there are statistics for temperature, but are there any for wind?
It just seems to me that we have more windy days than we had before. I don't know if it's just where i live (Shropshire) or country wide.
We do have stats for wind and this shows that August has been notably windy, especially towards the northwest
Could you cover the planetary Rossby wave and wave numbers in more details please?
(English) schools across Northern Ireland, return on September 2nd, 2024.
Thank you, that was an especially interesting episode.
Is it me,or does there seem to be less thunderstorms last few years?(North London)
From my location in Central West Scotland from this July to August period for the last two months, we have had 40-plus days with some rainfall. I've never seen a year with so much rainfall continuous.
Got a question for will is there any storms in each other year or month just to let you guys know
Aidan do you know if it will Thunder in Merseyside next week because I start my new academic year next Monday many thanks.
Hello Aidan McGivern how are we when are you doing momday video aiagn
Why don't you tell us how good the scenario looks for astronomy, i.e. clearness of skies? Last autumn was terrible for astronomy.
So could this mean more unsettled weather and possible storms?
Looking at how some of the forecasting models have performed lately, i wouldnt put much stock in any long term predictions. Its a pretty safe bet to say a slightly higher than average chance of a wet and windy autumn.
Beast from the East🔥🌡️🔥☀️ yet again! 🥵
Storm season lets goo
Thoughts on the ITZC moving further north than usual and the increased rainfall in the Sahara and the wider effects would be interesting.
Always watch the deep dive fantastic. Is it possible to move the black rectangle that houses the touch screen commands to the extreme left corner as it blocks some of the X axis scaling numbers. Ta
There’s a redesign of the interface coming in the next few months that does remove this!
Has cloud seeding affected the UKs summer?
More stormy weather will mean floods because the ground is already soaking.
Interesting 24;30 "storms are named on impact rather than wind speed threshold's" whilst I acknowledge the safety what is concerning if there is no set threshold and we are told we are having more and more storms ie like here saying we have had the most named storms this year, yes but the last storm according to your own saying was to protect lives rather than a threshold which determines a storm.
That’s why the Met Office don’t use the number of named storms in a season to claim ‘we are having more and more storms’. What we said in this Deep Dive is that the past season had the most named storms since we started naming them in 2015. But we also said that the number of named storms varies considerably year to year, with just two named storms during the previous season, for example. What the Met Office does say more generally about storms and climate change is that winters are likely to become stormier as the world continues to warm but, up to now there’s been no clear trend in the number of winter windstorms affecting the UK. That may be because of the very large year to year variability in number and track of storms that makes it difficult to identify any clear trends.
@@metoffice Thank you for the clarification and for all your videos I really enjoy the pure science behind what you do to give a clear picture of what is actually happening to our weather. It just took me aback a little when you named the storms for the safety value but I understand why, to get the message out to save lives which it does. Please keep up the great work you do.
How to dumb down awareness of weather effect, adjust perspective according to season. Summer storms are not unusual, but to buy into the tremulous mouse theory of weather forecasting is not going to raise awareness of weather effects. Just tell it how it is!!
I wonder how long the Portugal Deep Dive is?
How much does Icelandic volcanic activity affect our weather in the UK
Most interesting and have we had a storm Aidan or Alex yet? 😁
We’ve had both! Storm Alex was named by the French just before Storm Aiden (different spelling) arrived - named by us.
@@metoffice thank you 😊
Which ever model develops over the next 10 days, the weather looks to be fairly decent..especially in the SE
Summer has certainly shot by really fast this year!
Will it snow this year yes or no
You do t need all your fancy computers first two weeks September always good just as kids go back to school!
Hello Aidan 👋
Hello 👋🏼
I am just wondering when are the storm names for 2024/25 coming out?
Thursday!
Your autumn forecast is for the UK as a whole. If I could play devil’s advocate, how relevant is it to talk about UK averages? Earlier in the programme, you mentioned how sharp the contrast has been in the weather in the north-west compared with the south-east recently. My impression is that regional variations seem to be increasing: does the weather data bear that out? I would love it if a future Deep Dive could focus on regional differences.
By the way, how are UK average temperatures and rainfall totals actually calculated? Is it a straight average of all the Met Office wearher stations, and if so, does their location skew the average in any way, e.g. towards population centres rather than remote areas, or towards lower altitudes?
Yes, the percentage probabilities are for the UK as a whole. However, during our discussion, Will mentioned that the most likely pressure anomalies for the season as a whole would cause increased westerly or northwesterly winds. That could result in the highest positive rainfall anomalies towards the west and northwest. Similar to this August in that respect.
The averages for the UK are calculated by averaging all the grid points across the land area. Those grid points will get their temperature or rainfall numbers from their nearest weather station
I'd also add in diurnal averages too. A warm cloudy night and a cool cloudy day, if averaged out can seem like a typical summer's day. More useful would be average day and average night temps
@@metoffice So that does mean that the figures are dependent on where the weather stations are, doesn’t it? Has anybody ever worked out if that produces any kind of bias?
It’s a rather pedantic point to make, I admit, but any ‘average temperature’ is by definition only an approximation of the ‘real’ average, given that temperature varies in space and time along a continuum, whereas we can only measure it at fixed points (in space and time).
Thanks so much. Just a question for Will. The met office 3 month forecast for the summer turned out to be not quite right. Not as warm as suggested and more windy. It would be great to find from Will why things turned out so different.
Just rewind a bit, bring back the proper seaons.
Is Autumn In September 7th 2024 Maybe Thundery Showers Depending On The Jet Stream
So anything could happen in the next 3 months….. watch this space 😮 !!!!
As far as I'm concerned summer ends at back end of September. Funny how the met shy away from talking about our Indian summer
Yeah you're thinking of astronomical seasons. The Met Office focus on them from a *meteorological* standpoint which is to be expected really.
I wish meteorologists would not over use or indeed wrongly use the phrase "for the time of year". Confuses the consumer. Babet was a freak storm. Full Stop.
😀 Summer has arrived - Summer has ended 💩
Focusing on Babet - why were rain warnings for Suffolk and Norfolk so wrong though. We had yellow warnings for rain, but the deluge was biblical really… how are yellow warnings different from amber and red and how has the Met Office improved them following mistakes made with Babet?
Let's not forget that autumn does not even start until the 21st of September.
Why do you say Meat-rological when it's pronounced Met-rological?
You may be thinking of metrology, the science of measurement, rather than meteorology