Basic Poker Math

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  • Опубліковано 4 жов 2024

КОМЕНТАРІ • 272

  • @Rattenhoofd
    @Rattenhoofd 5 років тому +127

    I'm a recovering mathophobe (8 years clean now), so even basic math like this is a significant struggle for me. But with a little pausing here and there I managed to get through the video and understand all of it. Thanks!

    • @WowPoker
      @WowPoker  5 років тому +15

      Good for you for being willing to put in the work! I am glad you were able to make it through the video and hope you got something out of it.

    • @citricjman4451
      @citricjman4451 8 місяців тому +2

      12 years clean now?

    • @wise18525
      @wise18525 6 місяців тому

      Same here.

    • @Amoeby
      @Amoeby 6 місяців тому

      Why? Math is beautiful.

  • @gregoryfoster8179
    @gregoryfoster8179 3 роки тому +33

    Definitely one of the best poker math lessons I've seen. Especially like the range portion.

  • @wemo8722
    @wemo8722 7 років тому +37

    I have heard everyone talk about it but Never actually seen it worked out. I really appreciate that. Wemo

    • @WowPoker
      @WowPoker  7 років тому +2

      We Mo No problem at all! If any questions come up let me know :)

  • @leojames7331
    @leojames7331 5 років тому +16

    Thank you for such a comprehensive and patient explanation. I'm absolutely terrible at even basic maths, no one has ever been able to teach me in a way that i can understand, but this video is so clear and informative with real examples in application, i totally get it and i'm very grateful for that. Thank you!

    • @WowPoker
      @WowPoker  5 років тому +2

      Leo James You are very welcome and I am happy you got something from it. Thank you for taking the time to write such a kind reply. Good luck with your studies and at the tables.

    • @leojames7331
      @leojames7331 5 років тому

      @@WowPoker You're welcome. Subbed and will be keeping an eye on your uploads. Thanks again :)

  • @mitchsmix269
    @mitchsmix269 2 роки тому +7

    Your math was off on the Hand Versus Range example. 12 combos of (T9) + 16 combos of (54) + 6 flush draws = 34 hands we beat to 27 hands we lose to. Since we're still winning ~55% of the time vs this range and we only need 40% equity to profitably call it's still an easy call, but it is a bit closer than you showed in the video
    Still thanks for the super helpful video

  • @richardanderson3476
    @richardanderson3476 4 роки тому +11

    Thanks man. I love math but always found it so difficult in my later life because I got kicked out of school pretty early. Playing poker I’ve had to somewhat intuit answers without this whole process but now I’m so glad that I know.

    • @WowPoker
      @WowPoker  4 роки тому

      Thanks for watching and I am glad you got something out of it! Good luck at the tables!

  • @GideonJubilee
    @GideonJubilee 4 роки тому +7

    Fantastic teaching skills, watch with pen and paper handy. Cheers

  • @colemiller7408
    @colemiller7408 Рік тому

    This is the most well put together little course I have ever seen! Well done

  • @ckysusanliu
    @ckysusanliu Рік тому

    The best poker math lessons I've seen

  • @waiifii22
    @waiifii22 5 років тому +9

    Thanks for the video, clear concise and linear progressive lesson, really enjoyed and will return to this video again and again as I practice. Thanks!

    • @WowPoker
      @WowPoker  5 років тому

      You are welcome! I am glad you got/will be getting something out of it. Good luck with the poker journey!

  • @yaarge2
    @yaarge2 3 роки тому +2

    Thanks for posting, very clear explanation with good examples 👍

  • @clydeveigas05
    @clydeveigas05 2 роки тому

    This is one of the best Poker Math lessons, if not THE Best. Thanks alot!

  • @Part-Time-Larry
    @Part-Time-Larry 2 місяці тому

    I couldn't agree more with your analysis on folding @23:16 The odds need to be much better to justify the risk in a situation like a $million tournament. Also another thing to consideration should be what is your remaining bankroll. If 285k puts you at only say 10% of your remaining bankroll or 10% of your chip stack, then I might consider it. Conversely, if my bankroll has taken a beating and I'm sitting closer going bust if I call and lose, it's going to be a definite no. And for bankroll I don't just mean what you have left in the cash game, but what you have left in your poker account. These are my opinions anyways.
    Excellent video btw!

  • @tomashcroft7024
    @tomashcroft7024 Рік тому

    Great videos and break downs. Thank you for providing this.

  • @DamianSzajnowski
    @DamianSzajnowski 4 роки тому +2

    Around 28 it adds up to 34 not 44, so the odds lose:win are 7:8, so we probably wanna fold that. Unless I overlooked something. O th er than that, super helpful explanation, thanks!

    • @WowPoker
      @WowPoker  4 роки тому +1

      Thanks for watching the video and I am glad you liked it overall. Good catch on that one. Seems I made a typo when I wrote the PowerPoint and didn't catch it when I was recording. This still gives you a good chance to practice the math. Even when our lose:win is 7:8 we have a pretty +EV call. This is because we are losing 7/(8+7) = 47% of the time or winning 100% - 47% = 53% but when getting 3:2 we only need to win 40% of the time.

    • @DamianSzajnowski
      @DamianSzajnowski 4 роки тому

      @@WowPoker Thanks for the reaponse, true!

  • @royalcandy6690
    @royalcandy6690 6 місяців тому +1

    Great Video, but you did make a mistake at the end if I'm not mistaken. 12 + 16 + 6 should add up to only 34, lowering your odds of winning to 34/(27+34)≈55%. Still a great video and an immense help!

  • @djbanks7546
    @djbanks7546 4 роки тому

    Terrible at math but hoping your videos will help me at the tables! easy to understand! love the rounding as it makes it easier to do while in an actual hand.

    • @WowPoker
      @WowPoker  4 роки тому

      Best of luck with your studies and at the tables!

  • @KageManTV
    @KageManTV 3 роки тому +1

    Thank you for posting this. This is the best video on the basic math explanation (and i went through many of them). I really hope you do one on combo ranges and equity because that part I found harder to understand.

    • @WowPoker
      @WowPoker  3 роки тому +1

      I am glad you liked the video. Please check out my Part 2 video: ua-cam.com/video/txibPN1JtlY/v-deo.html. It goes more into EV equations and might help clear some things up. If you do have more specific questions on combos, ranges, equity etc, please let me know and I will see what I can do.

  • @linus5885
    @linus5885 5 місяців тому

    in the last example the call is a bit closer because we are only beating 34 combos not 44 which makes it 14:17 which is significantly less than 7:11 but we still win more than 40% (pot odds)

  • @murdabotsyt6368
    @murdabotsyt6368 5 років тому +4

    If you guys want him to talk faster just switch the speed to a higher playback speed

  • @gmsleepless6530
    @gmsleepless6530 Рік тому +1

    Thanks mate , please make more of these , you havent make one like 2 years :/

  • @adamp2029
    @adamp2029 2 роки тому

    I used to play blackjack for a living. I put a lot of time and effort into that. But nothing compared to excelling at poker, which I’m just getting into now.

  • @petalx3682
    @petalx3682 5 років тому +2

    Really good video - would love to see more about poker math. You also learn better when you teach it - win:win situation :)

    • @WowPoker
      @WowPoker  5 років тому +1

      Thank you I am glad you liked it! I plan on putting out more videos soon so I will see if I can break down some of the more difficult math concepts.

  • @1Ryden
    @1Ryden 7 років тому +11

    27:40 Villan outs are 34 not 44 mate , 12+16+6 = 34 . You miss calculated. Anyway we get Lose:Win ratio of 14:17.
    Still profitable call. Range wise we get 45% on call and we need only 40% to brake even. It is +EV.
    Love your videos, keep up the good work.

    • @WowPoker
      @WowPoker  7 років тому +8

      Great catch! Thank you for pointing that out. Unfortunatly, I don't think I can fix it at this point but I think that hopefully the take-away from this part of the video is still valid. Hopefully others watching the video either catch it themselves or see your comment and see the correct numbers.

    • @Weedyyy
      @Weedyyy 4 роки тому

      a bit late but maybe one of you guys may answer^^ so the ratio says we lose 45% = (14/(14+17)) of the time and win 55% = (17/(14+17)) of the time, why are we taking the 45 and not the 55 into account?

    • @ZachHenke
      @ZachHenke 4 роки тому

      sylv jab By taking the 45% into account, you are taking the 55% into account. They add up to 100% of the things that could happen. It doesn’t matter which you look at, but it’s simpler to just look at one number.

    • @Weedyyy
      @Weedyyy 4 роки тому +1

      Thanks for answering, I am just wondering why we want to take the 45% (possibility on loss) and not the 55% which is in fact our possibility of winning. In this scenario it doesn't matter because either way we are superior to 40% for a +EV, I get this. I hope you understand what I'm trying to say :)

  • @maximilianschickentanz723
    @maximilianschickentanz723 4 роки тому +2

    Very nice video, I would relay like a video on combo counting with the range equity more in deapth ! Thanks ;)

    • @WowPoker
      @WowPoker  4 роки тому

      Sorry for the late reply. Thank a lot for watching and for the nice compliment. Can't make any guarantees but I will think on that and see if I can put something together! GL at the tables.

  • @NakieaBrown
    @NakieaBrown 10 місяців тому

    Thanks for making the video.

  • @edboyle6623
    @edboyle6623 2 роки тому

    Excellent video on a subject that I have struggled with in the past (heck, who am I kidding, I still struggle now). I loved the slow, step by step explanation that took me to a final end point that is actually covering a lot of complex stuff (at least to me) yet made it understandable. This video actually made me want to run some hand samples through on paper and work out the math.
    Nice job !

  • @attilajuhasz318
    @attilajuhasz318 2 роки тому

    this actually helped me out a lot. thank you!

  • @kuysvintv8902
    @kuysvintv8902 4 роки тому

    Thank you for sharing this basic poker math to improve my poker game :)

  • @isak3222
    @isak3222 2 роки тому

    Great video, only thing I noticed was wrong is the Hand vs Range slide where you say 12+6+6=44
    It is 34

  • @rc4361
    @rc4361 4 роки тому +1

    Excellent teaching skills

  • @donaldharris3301
    @donaldharris3301 2 роки тому

    AWESOME summed it up great thank you

  • @NikunjAgrawal1
    @NikunjAgrawal1 Рік тому

    The pot odds will always be below 50% right [since risk < 1/2 (reward + risk) => bet < 1/2 (pot + bet) + bet => bet < 1/2 (2 * bet + pot) < bet + 1/2 pot], then what is the number you really use to decide when to bet? It seemed like you bet even when the pot odds were close to 50%.

  • @yannickroosen8138
    @yannickroosen8138 5 років тому +2

    Thanks for this video! You have earned yourself a new sub from Belgium ;)

    • @WowPoker
      @WowPoker  5 років тому

      Glad you liked the video and thank you very much for the sub! Good luck with your studies and at the tables.

  • @bartomiejkmita5118
    @bartomiejkmita5118 Рік тому

    Man this is great! Why you stopped recording videos?

  • @panepinto1959
    @panepinto1959 Рік тому

    Loved the video. I do not understand at 27 mins into it how there are 6 possible flush draws when the flop, turn and river are out and there are only 2 hearts. If the opponent only as 2 cards, the best possible case for a flush is only 4 hearts, not enough. What am I not understanding? Also, can normal people do all that in their heads while playing? Figuring out the math is pretty easy, but figuring out all the possible ways one could win or lose is difficult to do so quickly, no? Are there any tricks for doing that?

  • @Say-nq5dn
    @Say-nq5dn 4 роки тому

    @wowpoker at the start, somewhere close to 05:30 a 05:48 you said it's good to be clear what is what and we can keep the ration either ways. But I think, the person who designed it was genius as it tells us how much is the reward as compared to the risk (promotes/induces aggressive/positive thinking) whereas if we reverse is, we think of how much we have to risk, shedding the limelight from the reward (promoting negative thoughts and passive play..
    Just a thought. Wanted to share!

    • @WowPoker
      @WowPoker  4 роки тому

      Thanks for watching. And I am all for using whatever it takes to keep yourself in a positive and good aggressive mood!

  • @troyobrien4844
    @troyobrien4844 11 місяців тому

    How much of an advantage would be gained from seeing the exposed A♠️ K♣️? Given there’s two less unseen cards.

  • @gtaglia779
    @gtaglia779 Рік тому

    Great lesson!! Thanks. Any tricks to calculating Hand vs Range live at a table in the moment? Also, the problem dealing with only percentages is that the cash size of the bet impacts your bankroll. You can win 4 out of 5 hands, so 80% of the time, but still lose money if the losing bet was greater than all your wins...Anyway to manage that in the calculations?

  • @branthebroken9620
    @branthebroken9620 Рік тому

    Wouldn’t a call in the second example depend on your stack size? Because it’s significantly reducing the reward? Is the math just adding it up and ignoring he shoved?

  • @grubs310
    @grubs310 5 років тому +3

    @wowpoker Online tables are so fast, do you do these calculations every hand? or do you get to a point where you anticipate the odds and equity based on familiar situations?

    • @WowPoker
      @WowPoker  5 років тому +3

      You should be practicing this a lot away from the tables so it becomes almost instant at the table. Also, people tend to bet standard sizes such as 1/2, 2/3, 3/4, and pot so having those percentages memorized helps a bunch.

    • @grubs310
      @grubs310 5 років тому

      Thanks for the reply

  • @hotshooter3517
    @hotshooter3517 2 роки тому +1

    thank you for the video and ppt
    you've explained things very clearly
    a couple of questions concerning the rule of 4 and 2:
    i've read that that the 4 (two cards left to come) only applies when the opponent(s) are all-in - no more betting
    if they still have chips left to bet on the turn or river, then use 2 (not 4) on after the flop (two cards left to come)
    is that accurate?
    also, regarding outs to equity:
    if you have more than 8 outs, then subtract 1% for each out over 8
    (to compensate for inaccuracy)
    for example - flush draw (9 outs) 9 x 4 = 36% subtract 1% (one out over 8), so 35%
    similarly, combo draw - flush draw + straight draw (12 outs):
    4 x 12 = 48% subtract 4% (four outs over 8), so 44%
    is this compensation correct?
    thanks again

    • @WowPoker
      @WowPoker  2 роки тому

      Thanks for watching the video and great questions.
      To your first question. Yes, you would only multiply by 4 if you are all in on the flop. This is because if your opponent is able to bet again on the turn you have calculate your pot odds at that point and make another decision based on the new odds you are getting.
      To the second question. I think that is a reasonable adjustment. When I am doing live calculations in my head I always like to be a little pessimistic because you can (almost) never know exactly what you are up against. Another thing I would do is remove some of my outs in situations where I thought the opponent might be tight or I could be counterfeited (where some of my outs make a better hand for the opponent too). That is all part of hand/range reading which comes with experience and studying your opponents off the tables. What I recommend while you are getting comfortable with the math is that during your study sessions 1. Very quickly do the math in your head and make a decision based on that then, 2. actually write out the math and take time to do the calculations. This will help you internalize everything much faster and will also greatly improve your ability to do the quick and more accurate calculations at the table. Once you feel more comfortable you can use any number of programs to do the equity calculations for you, but I wouldn't use those at first because it is much easier to forget what you learned when the answer comes instantly.

  • @kyleweston3280
    @kyleweston3280 Рік тому

    Very good lesson

  • @rickt10
    @rickt10 11 місяців тому

    Wait,I have always seen pot odds as risk versus reward.
    Pot has one, villain bets one, then I am risking 1 to win 3-- as I have to put 1 in to win.

  • @treyvalkenaar2281
    @treyvalkenaar2281 5 років тому +1

    @WowPoker But why wouldn't 99 be in villian's range if 88 & 77 range are? Thank you for the video

    • @WowPoker
      @WowPoker  5 років тому +1

      Thanks for watching. The ranges in this video are made-up, simplified ranges in order to make it easier to practice the math. My only focus for this video was on doing the math, I wasn't trying to show any real hand. If I remade the video though, I would probably use realistic ranges as this seems to be the number one question/criticism of the video.

  • @dillon4060
    @dillon4060 Рік тому

    Great job dude

  • @nyr413
    @nyr413 Рік тому

    Great video ty!

  • @renzomenos2528
    @renzomenos2528 9 місяців тому

    I wonder if GTO's take an average of these 2 EV calculations to balance equity when factoring in combos/blockers.

    • @renzomenos2528
      @renzomenos2528 9 місяців тому

      not that I'd have the time to calculate both, maybe best to do 1 or the other in different spots keep it in mind ;-;

  • @Blynk2511
    @Blynk2511 4 роки тому +3

    Hand vs range equity is 27:34

    • @killwalker
      @killwalker 4 роки тому

      that threw me. i dont understand his math on it. everything else i got np. idk what i missed to not grasp it.

  • @aceking5360
    @aceking5360 3 роки тому

    Is the reason we don’t count those outs because we don’t know all the cards that were folded and that’s statistically harder to do?

  • @janissaulitis6142
    @janissaulitis6142 6 років тому

    Really nice video. Thanks Shane!

    • @WowPoker
      @WowPoker  6 років тому

      Thank you! I am glad you liked it.

  • @thewisecanary9664
    @thewisecanary9664 5 років тому

    Thanks for the informative free content, but I find just making the odds calculation Bet/ Bet+ Bet + pot. Probably because it’s closer to how we learned to calculate percentages in Sweden.

    • @WowPoker
      @WowPoker  5 років тому

      You are welcome and thank for the sub! Your equation works just fine when deciding you call equity but I like to use risk/(risk+reward) because it also easily works for when you are bluffing as well. As long as it works though, i recommend you use whatever is fastest/easiest for you :)

  • @jazzyfact92
    @jazzyfact92 7 місяців тому +1

    18:53 why are you not accounting for two 9s and 10s as outs to win?

    • @linus5885
      @linus5885 5 місяців тому

      because hitting a 9 or 10 on the turn will not make them win, it does give you more outs to win on the river though

  • @John.RSilva
    @John.RSilva 3 роки тому +1

    Hi! Great video! I'm new in poker so I'm learning and I have a question, 29:07 I should just be looking at counting combos when there is no more cards to see or in which ocasions I replace pot odds for counting combos and what are the relation between both? Thanks for the work, sorry for the dumb question!

    • @WowPoker
      @WowPoker  3 роки тому +1

      Hello and thank you! Understanding combos is a big tool for hand reading on all streets, but doing it, as well as calculating pot odds/equity is much more complicated than the river. In general, you want to use pot odds when you are bluffing, bluff catching, or drawing to the best hand.

  • @alexrodriguez8767
    @alexrodriguez8767 4 роки тому

    Game Changer!!! Thank you!!!

  • @bipin249
    @bipin249 3 роки тому +1

    I am confused here...
    Why did he put T9 and 54 in his range at the last example?
    And why did he not counted 2's and 9's in the hand he will loose against

    • @mphoenix3764
      @mphoenix3764 3 роки тому +1

      He counted T9 and 54 in the range because they were both straight draws. T9 was an open ended straight draw on the flop and 54 was a gutshot on the flop but turned into an open ended straight draw on the turn. He is using a perfect example where we know exactly what our opponent could have, which is unrealistic, but he was doing it for the example. He’s saying it’s possible our opponent stayed in the hand for these straight draws, but missed, so we’re now beating him. Our opponent could have very well had 92 in a actual game, but that is a terrible hand and would’ve likely been folded before the flop, so it’s extremely unlikely our opponent has that. T9 and 54, however, are more likely to be played, so they’re in our opponent’s range

  • @PokerNutzz
    @PokerNutzz 3 роки тому

    good article!

  • @nomarlebron8456
    @nomarlebron8456 Рік тому

    for the example, why dont we have more outs? what if we hit 9 9 on the flush and river, or 10 10, or 9 10? 2 pair and 3 of kind beats pair of aces. Or do we calculate outs to get the nuts, the absolute best hand? confusion lol

    • @linus5885
      @linus5885 5 місяців тому

      because even if you hit a 9 or a 10 on the turn, you are not ahead, you do have more outs on the river though, which you can calculate. so for example, if he hits a 9 on the turn, he has additonal 5 more going into the river. (9 (flush) + 3 (8s) + 2 (9s) +3 (10s)) x 2 = 36%

  • @mateuszczapek4529
    @mateuszczapek4529 4 роки тому +2

    Great video! I learned a lot from it as I'm a complete amateur. Anyway...
    isn't 16+12+6=34???... or did I missed something?

    • @WowPoker
      @WowPoker  4 роки тому

      Thanks and I am glad you liked the video! You are correct on the math. I made a few typos in the PowerPoint and since I was reading off it when I made the video, I didn't catch them. Good news, is the concepts are still correct and it gives you extra practice to go and find the correct numbers!

  • @whyyousmilingwhenyournexth4047
    @whyyousmilingwhenyournexth4047 5 років тому +2

    Lol love the basics::

  • @kisahanii
    @kisahanii Рік тому

    im stupid i know: on Fractions; why is it exactly 3 divided bt the pot odds?

  • @justinrodriguez1403
    @justinrodriguez1403 2 роки тому

    What happens if the pot is 80,000. Player bets 20,000. Reward is 100,000 and risk is 20,000.
    Should it be 10:2 or will it be 1:2 since we take all the zeros.

    • @WowPoker
      @WowPoker  2 роки тому

      The first answer is correct. You have to remove the same number of zeros from both sides so sometimes one side will be left with a zero.

  • @arunvarghese7947
    @arunvarghese7947 4 роки тому

    I only have one confusion...!!
    Let's assume that in a pot of 225000, our opponent bets 25000
    So the total pot total is 250000
    We have to call 25000
    So how can we break it down by removing zeros??
    Is there any method to do this?
    Bcoz pot is 250k, our call 25k
    Even if we remove zeros
    It's 25 on both sides
    Can't divide it by 4
    Let's say even if it's 24 ÷ 4
    Gives 6
    Bt both sides will b tha same...!!
    Really curious to know about this..
    Please reply!!!

    • @WowPoker
      @WowPoker  4 роки тому

      Thanks for watching. To your question, when you remove zeros. The number of zeroes you remove from each side has to be equal. So 250,000:25.000 the maximum number of zeros we can remove from each side is 3 (250:25). Because we see 25(0) and 25 on both sides, we know we can divide by 25 so we get 10:1. Hope that helps.

    • @arunvarghese7947
      @arunvarghese7947 4 роки тому +1

      Ohh yeah..that really helps..thanks for clarifying it btw...!!

  • @regwalsh3615
    @regwalsh3615 5 років тому

    Enjoyed the lesson and realize importance of math to help move and shake off opponents. However, can you tell us about the Hold'em app. (I noticed it said "HoldEq (v.1.1.4.) Trial"
    Is it a system you put together and/or is it available online?

    • @WowPoker
      @WowPoker  5 років тому +1

      Thank you I am glad you enjoyed the video. HoldEq is a free add-on you get when you buy flopzilla (www.flopzilla.com/). If you check out my, "How to Study," I talk about a bunch of study tools out there (ua-cam.com/video/_o29tAZNF8E/v-deo.html).

  • @MrAdamMcFarlan
    @MrAdamMcFarlan 4 роки тому

    @WowPoker Nice video. I have a question:Why dont you count KK in the combos that hero loses to?

    • @WowPoker
      @WowPoker  4 роки тому

      Thank you. If you are talking about the ranges I give the villains, these are all fake ranges just used to practice the math. I wasn't trying to teach any hand reading in this video.

  • @karlpillay8360
    @karlpillay8360 3 місяці тому

    At like 19:10 why wouldn't you count the other 9s and 10s in the deck as part of your outs?

    • @karlpillay8360
      @karlpillay8360 3 місяці тому

      Ehh okay wait would it only become an out if a 9 or a 10 is pulled on the turn? I think I get it

  • @thejourneyofwhat
    @thejourneyofwhat Рік тому

    how do you account for other players at the tables cards

  • @kaiguevara3272
    @kaiguevara3272 4 роки тому

    @WowPoker Thanks for this! Got a query for you - At 19:22 why do we discount getting a pair of tens or three of a kind when calculating our outs? Should we not also count getting a pair etc. or do you simply focus on the best two hands you can get based on the cards you have i.e. In the instance a straight flush or flush?

    • @WowPoker
      @WowPoker  4 роки тому +1

      Thanks for watching. In this example, our opponent already has a pair of aces, so we need a T or 9 on the turn AND a T or 9 on the river. When we need runner runner for two pair or trips, it gives us about an extra 1% equity so you could add that 1% to the answer I gave here but to simplify things and keep it a little more practical, I left that explanation out in the video. Hope that helps and GL at the tables!

    • @kaiguevara3272
      @kaiguevara3272 4 роки тому

      WowPoker Ah spot on, makes sense, thanks!

  • @dantekou4323
    @dantekou4323 8 місяців тому +1

    12+16+6 is 34 not 44. Changes the Equity value.

    • @linus5885
      @linus5885 5 місяців тому

      yeah, i also commented that, but it is still a call because we beat about 55% of the opponents range, which is still more than the odds (40%)

  • @FRT550
    @FRT550 2 роки тому

    While playing you don't have time to do all this math. So how do you really apply this when playing?

    • @WowPoker
      @WowPoker  2 роки тому

      With practice these calculations only take a few seconds. At first it is slow which is why you should do them a lot when you are studying when learning poker and then when you play it is almost instant. Or you can memorize the common bet sizes and pot odds.

  • @austintyler7901
    @austintyler7901 7 місяців тому

    Wouldn’t the first example be 3:1?

  • @SeriesOfTheories
    @SeriesOfTheories 6 років тому +3

    At 19:00 the Equity & Odds example, is a call with the outs you noted. I agree. However, would extra equity be added by running 9s or Ts straight on the Turn and River. Basically adding 6 outs? It certainly wouldn't be easy to calculate on the fly for me, during play, but isn't it worth noting that hitting trips beats villain's aces and the resulting two pair? Thanks for your time making an easy to understand video. And could you explain why its a multiple of four, with only 2 cards to see? Thanks again. Actually my solution is 18 outs taken twice for a win percentage of 36% necessary to make the call. (which is less than pot odds, so fold?) Does that sound right?

    • @WowPoker
      @WowPoker  6 років тому +2

      You are correct that I did not add the runner runner two pair/trips outs. Good eye! However, it is not calculated as six additional outs. You have to hit your pair on the turn (6 outs) AND then hit two pair or set on the river (5 outs) so the odds of that happening is much less than hitting a 6 outer. An easy solution is to usually count a backdoor flush draw or straight draw as 1 out and runner runner two pair/trips as 1/2 an out. The rule of 4 and 2 is just a shortcut that someone found that gives us a close guess at our equity. It doesn't have anything to do with how many cards are left other than that we know to use 4 if we are on the flop and guaranteed to see the turn and river and 2 if we are on the turn. Your solution in this case would be incorrect, but if did have a hand that had 36% equity here you should fold. If we calculate exact equity using an equity calculator such as www.pokerstrategy.com/poker-software-tools/equilab-holdem/ we see that our hand has 46.87% equity. Here multiplying by 4 didn't give us the exact answer but we would be able to get pretty close very quickly. Hope that helps.

    • @SeriesOfTheories
      @SeriesOfTheories 6 років тому

      Yes, that was very helpful. Thank you.

  • @kannakrish2000
    @kannakrish2000 3 роки тому +2

    everything is good until the river gets you :D

  • @nouser129
    @nouser129 3 роки тому

    On your bet as a bluff, should it just be = your bet size / the pot - for risk/reward?

    • @WowPoker
      @WowPoker  3 роки тому

      No, for pot odds, in any situation, you always use risk/(risk+reward). We can use a simple example to show why bet size/pot is incorrect. Let's say you are bluffing and you bet full pot, that would be pot/pot = 1. This means your bluff would have to work 100% of the time! Just using a simple test like this shows us that equation can't be right.

  • @brandono6784
    @brandono6784 6 років тому +2

    @ 27:35 in the video if u pause you go over combos we win against and it says 12+16+6=44 and i cant stop scratching my head, typo?

    • @WowPoker
      @WowPoker  6 років тому +1

      Nice catch! I think I did the math once in my head and never checked it again. Those numbers definitely add up to 34 not 44! We would get a ratio of 28:34 or 14:17 (rounding the combos we lose to up by 1 to get an even number). Good news is we can still make a +ev call!

    • @LordBattleSmurf
      @LordBattleSmurf 5 років тому

      Can you please explain how we know convert 14:17 into a percentage to compare to our 40% pot odds?

  • @Cleisthenes2
    @Cleisthenes2 3 роки тому

    Great stuff but what are outs?

    • @WowPoker
      @WowPoker  2 роки тому +1

      Outs are the cards remaining in the deck that make your hand better than your opponents

  • @cleborp4453
    @cleborp4453 2 роки тому

    For the question 19:00 wouldn’t there be more outs? Like catching two additional 10’s or 9’s?

    • @WowPoker
      @WowPoker  2 роки тому +1

      Runner runner outs like this add very little extra equity to your hand and are more difficult to calculate. You have to multiply the percent of the time you hit your out on the turn and the percent of the time you hit your out on this river.
      So, for your example there are 6 10s or 9s left in the deck on the turn. That is (rough calculation) 12%. IF you hit that out on the turn then you have 5 10s or 9s on the river. That is (again rough calculation) 10%. So. 0.12 x 0.10 = 0.012 = 1.2%.
      So, the outs do count for something but not really enough to worry about and it makes the calculations too difficult for a beginner video.
      However, if you have a runner runner flush draw or open ended straight draw, you can typically add 1 out to your calculations on the turn.
      Hope that helps. Good luck at the tables!

    • @cleborp4453
      @cleborp4453 2 роки тому

      @@WowPoker that’s what I figured, appreciate the explanation and reply !

  • @bryanjohnson8162
    @bryanjohnson8162 5 років тому +1

    Is it just me or am I the only one that thinks 120,000 into 280,000 is 2 to 1 odds??? Not 7:3 .... And even if I reduced the big numbers down two small ones 3 goes in to 7 twice so that still gives you 2 to 1 pot odds

    • @WowPoker
      @WowPoker  5 років тому

      2:1 requires you to win 33% of the time and 7:3 requires 30% so in theory you should be finding more hands in your range to call with when you are getting the better price. However, in practice it is really difficult for humans to be able to implement that 3% adjustment so if you wanted to think of it as 2:1 to give you more time to think of other things and make everything easier that seems reasonable to me.

    • @bryanjohnson8162
      @bryanjohnson8162 5 років тому

      I understand what you're saying. What I'm saying is those numbers go into each other easy enough, there's no reason to simplify the numbers and create more math for yourself. And 2 to 1 odds is perfectly reasonable in fact it's not really much different than 7 to 3 odds. I don't understand why you would make it more difficult on yourself. And as you already stated they both equal 30%. So if you can take that same number without simplifying it, and get the same result why would you create more math?

    • @WowPoker
      @WowPoker  5 років тому +2

      I agreed with this sentiment in my reply to you that while playing doing what you suggest is good. If people want to find shortcuts or other methods that work better for them while they are at the tables, as long as they stay reasonably accurate, then go for it. However, there is a difference in the numbers so when studying it would be better to use 7:3, or be even more accurate if you can, (I think I did some slight rounding in the video) so that you can understand the differences and be able to apply them better and better each time you play. For example let's say the pot is only $1, if you could be 3% more accurate with your bluff catching (as that is the difference with these numbers), and you are expected to win the pot 33% of the time (for example) that is an extra $0.0099 per hand. let's say, as an online grinder, you will probably face a similar situation 100,000 times over the course of a year. That is an extra $990 a year from $1 pots because you were able to adjust accurately to the difference between 7:3 and 2:1. Is it easy to make that adjustment? No, it is insanely difficult so the only way to have any chance of getting close is to study the correct numbers when you are practicing away from the tables. In this case, I was just trying to teach a method of simplification when looking at big numbers that might work for some people while they are studying. Or, if there are people who want to be as accurate as they can while they are at the tables, this is a method they could use to get a good answer fairly quickly with just a little practice.

    • @JICM25
      @JICM25 5 років тому

      Please explain to me one thing, I can´t really learn more of this if I can´t understand basic concepts:
      So in that example, i have to call 280 to win 360. 280 is 77% of 360 right?? Doesn´t that mean I have to win 77% of the times to break even??

    • @yassineljazouli38
      @yassineljazouli38 4 роки тому

      Thank you for the video. It was very clear and benificial but the last one was pretty difficult for me because am new to the game and am not familiar to the combos yet.

  • @frederikbroker9823
    @frederikbroker9823 4 роки тому +1

    Great video, thanks. Quick question on the Outs calculation: you say after the flop with a flush draw you multiply the 9 potential cards by 4 to get around 36% probably of hitting the flush. Is the 4 multiplication just a rule of thumb? Technically it should be (9/47)*100 = 19.1% for the turn and if it didn’t hit then another (9/46)*100 = 19.5% for the river. Thus a total of 36,6%.

    • @jamesomahony8072
      @jamesomahony8072 4 роки тому

      Should this be 19.1 + 19.5 = 38.6 or have i got that wrong?

    • @frederikbroker9823
      @frederikbroker9823 4 роки тому

      James O' Mahony yes of course, my bad!

    • @WowPoker
      @WowPoker  4 роки тому +1

      Yes, this is just a simplification to help you get to a close answer very quickly. If you are guaranteed to see two cards, you can multiply your outs by 4 and will usually be within a percent or two of the actual mathematical answer. If you will only see one card you can multiply your outs by 2 for a similar shortcut.

  • @steveharris7938
    @steveharris7938 4 роки тому

    I get how you get the 12 for T9, but how do you get 16 is that 3x5, 3x4 and 10 0uts? and also how is there 6 flush draws. I apologise if this sounds like a dumb question. Thanks in advance, I have managed to win a 215 dollar entry to a Satelite tourney tomorrow.

    • @WowPoker
      @WowPoker  4 роки тому

      Steve Harris Good luck in your tournament! Could you give me a timestamp for where you are talking about in the video then I would be happy to answer your question.

  • @John.RSilva
    @John.RSilva 3 роки тому

    29:05 if the combos were Lose : Win 21 : 22 it was a B.E call right? I'm going my the logic of 7x3 (loosing ratio) 11x2 (winning ratio) or this don't make any sense?

    • @WowPoker
      @WowPoker  3 роки тому

      I am sorry, I am not following your question here. The break even point is when the combos win:lose = the odds of risk:reward. For example. The opponent bets 1/2 pot. This means my risk:reward is 1:3. So, if he has 10 combos I win agains and 30 I lose against 10:30 I am breaking even. If he has 31 combos I lose against (10:31), I am losing money.

  • @bonhere
    @bonhere 3 роки тому

    im really starting now to understand how this game works and I have a question. this pot odds thing makes sense to me if a poker hand was a oneshot thing like a coinflip but considering that in a single game u are going to play many hands shouldnt we avoid calling in spots where is only marginally favourable?

    • @WowPoker
      @WowPoker  3 роки тому +1

      It is because poker is a game of numbers and the only thing that really counts are the results over thousands to millions of hands that we can take all of those favorable spots. Let's consider a river bluff catching spot. The opponent has bet $100 on the river. Assume we have done all the math perfectly (see my 2nd video on EV equations) and we know the equity of our call in this spot is $0.01. Meaning, on average, our call is expected to earn us that much. In the single hand it feels like we are either losing the $100 or winning the whole pot, but if we look at the math we see that our decision is much more marginal. It is a very close spot and the call earns us almost nothing in terms of EV. However, let's say this is a common spot we run into. Maybe it comes up one out of every 500 hands we play. Now lets say we will play 10,000,000 hands in our poker career. This means will will encounter this hand 10,000,000/500 = 20,000 times. This means folding in this spot over our career would cost us 20,000 * $0.01 = $200. Now, that might not seem like much, but that is only one out of the hundreds of common marginal spots that come up. Not to mention, that over the 10,000,000 hands you will likely move up in stakes, so that $0.01 spot will become a $0.1, and a $1 and so on. Hope that helps. Good luck at the tables.

    • @bonhere
      @bonhere 3 роки тому

      @@WowPoker thx for answering me

  • @vrolijk1999
    @vrolijk1999 5 років тому

    Doesnt it matter that the opponent is betting? At the end? Or should you just ignore the bluffing part and just do the math

    • @WowPoker
      @WowPoker  5 років тому

      Thanks for watching the video and I apologize for such a slow response. In order to calculate your break even point any time you are bluffing or bluff catching you will always use the equation risk/(risk+reward). So if your opponent has bet, you just add the amount he bet to the reward when you do your calculation. For example, let's say we have a pot sized bet left on the river. Our opponent bets 1/2 pot into us and we are thinking about bluffing. In this case our reward is 1.5 (the size of the pot plus the opponents 1/2 pot bet) and our risk is 1. So we take 1/(1+1.5) = 1/2.5 = 0.4. This means if we are bluffing the opponent needs to fold 40% of the time in order for our bluff to break even. If he folds any more than 40% we are now making money. Hope that helps. If you still have questions please @ me in your reply so I will get a notification and can respond faster.

  • @aceking5360
    @aceking5360 3 роки тому

    Hey! What if it goes runner runner 10/9 that’s 4 more outs!

    • @WowPoker
      @WowPoker  3 роки тому

      Runner runner outs do not get counted like a normal out, because you need TWO things to happen together instead of just one thing you need to happen for a normal out. Let's say There are five total cards that you need that if they hit both the turn and river, you win. This means on the turn, you have about a 10% chance to hit one. If you hit it on the turn, one of your five cards is gone, so on the river you have about an 8% chance to hit the card you need. Because these things have to happen together, you must multiply the % of the time it occurs to get the actual % of the runner runner happening. So .1 x .08 = .008. This means that the runner runner with only five possible cards will only happen about 0.8% of the time.

  • @edmundchan2591
    @edmundchan2591 4 роки тому

    Amazing

  • @duncanmacquarrie6510
    @duncanmacquarrie6510 3 роки тому

    Hi the working out of combos we win against in the QQ hand at around 29 mins, it's incorrect isn't it ? You said 44 but it is 16 + 12 + 6 = 34

    • @WowPoker
      @WowPoker  3 роки тому

      You are correct. I made a typo in the PowerPoint slides and my notes I had prepared so I didn't catch the error until after the video had been released and another viewer actually pointed it out. The math and concepts check out other than that mistake though. It does give you an opportunity to go back and see if the decision is still correct knowing the actual combos though! GL at the tables.

  • @barrydec2865
    @barrydec2865 2 роки тому

    Really helpful video learned a lot from it. But you did the math wrong around 27:45 12 + 16 + 6 = 34. ratio would be 28 : 32 > 7 : 8.

    • @WowPoker
      @WowPoker  2 роки тому +1

      Thanks for watching! Good catch. When I was making the PowerPoint I made that typo and I didn't notice until after the video was published. Since the concepts still hold true, I decided not to take the time to fix it.

  • @ZackSussmanMusic
    @ZackSussmanMusic 2 роки тому

    12:00 how can it not be more than 50%? consider a pot of 1 and a bet of 3. Then you need to win 75% of the time to break even.

    • @ZackSussmanMusic
      @ZackSussmanMusic 2 роки тому

      SOLVED: You are risking 3 to win 4. So actually you need to win 3/7 of the time to break even. 3/7(4) - (4/7)(3) = 0. The reason it never exceeds 50% is that you win at least the other person's bet + what is in the pot, and the other person's bet is always never less than what you are putting in. In other words, the reward is always at least the risk.

  • @arthurgold517
    @arthurgold517 3 роки тому

    So after some practice u think I will be able to do this math especially the range equity math At a table?

    • @WowPoker
      @WowPoker  3 роки тому +1

      Yes, after some practice, you will be able to do all of the math I show in this video very quickly at the table. Also, you will memorize the most common situations naturally as you practice so you won't even have to think about those ones.

  • @killwalker
    @killwalker 4 роки тому

    was totally with you until you switched to Hand vs Equity. the AA = 3, 88= 3 etc...i could not grasp how you got those numbers to then add them up to what felt like a very arbitrary 27. of course it isnt, but the lowbrow in me didnt understand.

    • @WowPoker
      @WowPoker  4 роки тому +1

      With pocket pairs, there are only 6 distinct ways to hold the pocket pair. AhAd, AhAc, AhAs, AdAc, AdAs, AcAs. So, we say there are 6 possible combos of AA someone can have preflop. However, if we hold and A or there is an A on the board, we know it is impossible for our opponent to use that A to make his AA. So lets say we have Ad in our hand, he can only have AhAc, AhAs, AcAs (so 3 combos of AA). Because it is impossible to know exactly what our opponent is holding, we have to use educated guesses (hand reading) to deduce all the possible hands he could play in that way and then add up all the possible combinations of those hands. We can then compare the total combos of bluffs vs value (for example) to help us make the best possible choice. Hope that helps. Good luck at the tables.

    • @killwalker
      @killwalker 4 роки тому

      @@WowPoker That did help. Thanks man :)

  • @ivanbarac5580
    @ivanbarac5580 5 років тому

    Hi,nice video! Like it.But,can I apply this ? Becouse i dont know cards of other player

    • @WowPoker
      @WowPoker  5 років тому +1

      As you get more experience you will get better and better at identifying the range of cards your opponent can be holding. The better you get at that, the more powerful this math becomes. But, even at the most basic level you can still apply it. For example, you are at a live game and a drunk guy is betting pot on the river 100% of the time. You have no idea what he can have because he have anything, BUT, when he bets pot you know that if you win more than 33% of the time vs him, you will make money. Against a guy that is always betting the river with anything, any of your bluff-catchers will win more than 33% of the time so you can call. In this example, we didn't even need to think about his cards, just about how he was playing and the math showed we can call him very often very profitably. There are lots of other examples like this that come up in poker.

  • @IronWalker98
    @IronWalker98 5 років тому

    This is the first video on pott odds that actually explained the equations in depth so thank you. When it comes out to finding the equity you need to call. Does it matter if you use Win/[loss+win] or Risk/[reward+risk]

    • @WowPoker
      @WowPoker  5 років тому

      You are welcome. Win/[loss+win] will not work. For example let's say there is a pot of 2, and we have to call 1 to try and win it. That would be 2/[1+2] = 2/3. When we use risk/[reward+risk] we get 1/[1+2] = 1/3. I would always stick to risk/[reward+risk].

  • @molonlabe8792
    @molonlabe8792 3 роки тому

    When you play poker you have to think about many variables. The problem is that I don't like to think.

    • @WowPoker
      @WowPoker  3 роки тому

      Poker is very complex and at the highest level there are variables on top of variables that you have to consider. The good news is that to get to that level, the best way is to focus on one aspect at a time until it almost becomes second nature, then move on to the next. So if you train well the pattern of thinking at the table almost feels like intuition than actually thinking.

  • @bontomer7925
    @bontomer7925 5 років тому

    How would you calculate the equity when you need for instance running spades to get the flush?

    • @WowPoker
      @WowPoker  5 років тому +1

      On the flop, you can count a runner runner flush draw and the better running straight draws as 1 extra out.

    • @alliecurtis7065
      @alliecurtis7065 3 роки тому

      do you know what an out is? idk how to answer ur question, ur question jus made it sound like u could answer mine

  • @cemredemir2116
    @cemredemir2116 3 роки тому

    i didnt get the 6 extra missed flush draws, can someone explain me where do we come up with 6 and how to calculate it, i ll be appreciated, thanks :)

    • @WowPoker
      @WowPoker  3 роки тому

      I just made up random numbers for this video. The purpose was only to practice doing the math so I didn't include any real ranges in order to keep things simple.

  • @minimead368
    @minimead368 3 роки тому

    Hi I’m in need of some HELP!
    I’m not quite understanding the combo’s bit.
    AA = 3 what is meant by this?
    I understand AA is villains possible hold cards but what is meant by the 3?

    • @andrewoliver6359
      @andrewoliver6359 3 роки тому +1

      Because the Ace of spades is on the board there are 3 possible combinations of Aces. AdAh, AdAc, AhAc

    • @John.RSilva
      @John.RSilva 3 роки тому

      You can have 6 combos of each pair on the game (4 Ace cards) when one card is on the board there are only 3 "available cards" that the villain can have, so, the number of combos goes down to 3 instead of 6, like from AsAd, AsAh, AsAc, +AdAh, AdAc AhAc = 6. If As is on the board, now villain can have 3 combos AdAc, AdAh, AcAh

  • @Ezem1
    @Ezem1 2 роки тому

    sorry follow up question how u get d 28:44 ratio?

    • @WowPoker
      @WowPoker  2 роки тому

      I made a typo in the PowerPoint and since I was just reading from my notes when I recorded the video I didn’t notice.

    • @Ezem1
      @Ezem1 2 роки тому

      @@WowPoker so it is 34 or 44?

  • @aortunoj
    @aortunoj 4 роки тому

    How did you get the 6 flush draw combos?

    • @WowPoker
      @WowPoker  4 роки тому

      I am not sure where in the video you are talking about, but in many examples in this video, I am just using fake and very simplified ranges to give everyone easier math to work with.

  • @reedshay6173
    @reedshay6173 4 роки тому

    Why would you not count the straight draw as potential outs?

    • @WowPoker
      @WowPoker  4 роки тому

      Where in the video are you talking about?

    • @reedshay6173
      @reedshay6173 4 роки тому

      you have 10 J right, and flop 9D 7D so I thought I would attribute the straight (9s and Qs) in addition to the diamond... I guess the equity you calculated was only for the flush if that makes sense

    • @reedshay6173
      @reedshay6173 4 роки тому

      Sorry you have 9 10 and 78 on the board

    • @reedshay6173
      @reedshay6173 4 роки тому

      Wait Nevermind I’m an idiot hahahaha... you’re right

    • @WowPoker
      @WowPoker  4 роки тому

      Reed Shay Glad you figured it out.

  • @leightonginty4315
    @leightonginty4315 4 роки тому

    How do you calculate the number of flush draw combos?

    • @WowPoker
      @WowPoker  4 роки тому

      In these videos I just made the numbers up. I wanted to focus on practicing the math and keeping the examples as simple as possible. In game, you have to consider the pre-flop range (starting combos of each hand), how aggressive players play their draws on each street (how likely they are to be betting draws vs checking), and the common bet sizings they use when betting a draw (how often they bet strong/weak draws for this sizing) in order to make an educated guess on how many combos they likely have.

    • @zainsyed9811
      @zainsyed9811 3 роки тому

      24:13 as mentioned he's a really nice dude and told us what his exact range is.