Situational analysis “The conflict in the Great African Lakes region and Russia's position”

At the beginning of 2024, another round of escalation of tension in the east of the Democratic Republic of the Congo, on the border with Rwanda, again attracted the attention of the world community to the Great African Lakes region (GAL region). The large city of Goma, the capital of the Congolese province of North Kivu, home to about 2 million people and about 500 thousand refugees, may soon fall under the onslaught of the armed group M23.
The possibilities of conflict resolution are complicated by the intertwining of political, economic and other causes, as well as multi-factorial nature. In addition to the M23, other armed groups, Congolese and forces external to the region are fighting for control of the territory. Some of the DRC's neighbors are also involved in the conflict.
Since 1996, about 6 million people have died in the eastern part of the DRC.
In the context of the unfolding events, the RIAC is conducting a situational analysis, whose main goal is to give a comprehensive assessment of the situation in the GAL region and determine the optimal position for Russia on the conflict. The participants of the situation analysis will also develop recommendations for the implementation of the long-term policy of the Russian Federation in the African Far East.
To analyze the situation and conflict in the GAL region, it is assumed to use the PESTLE scheme (political, economic, social, technological, legal, environmental). PESTLE analysis will allow you to assess the impact of internal and external factors, anticipate risks and take advantage of emerging opportunities.
Participants:
1. Adu Yao Nikez, PhD, Associate Professor at the Department of Theory and History of International Relations, RUDN named after P. Lumumba
2. Amukhaya Claire Ayuma, PhD, Senior Lecturer at the Department of Theory and History of International Relations, RUDN named after P. Lumumba
3. Barabanov Oleg, Program Director of the Valdai International Discussion Club, Doctor of Political Sciences, Professor of the Academy of Sciences
4. Bogdasarova Tatyana, PhD, RIAC Program Manager
5. Captain Kiki Onyonka, Independent Political Analyst, Kenya
6. Degterev Denis, Doctor of Political Sciences, PhD, Professor at MGIMO University of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russia, Senior Researcher at the Institute of Africa of the Russian Academy of Sciences
7. Demidov Alexey, Advisor on Humanitarian Policy Issues to the ICRC Moscow Regional Delegation
8. Denisova Tatyana, PhD, Senior Researcher, General Director. The Center for the Study of Tropical Africa
9. Edgar Muvunyi Tabaro, Senior Partner, KTA Advocates, Uganda
10. Iba Diagne, Managing partner, YDNA VITA
11. James Jacob Paul, Tanzanian journalist
12. Karamaev Sergey, Researcher, Group of Regional Political Problems of the countries of the East and South of the IMEMO RAS
13. Marinagena Valens, Senior Lecturer at the Faculty of Oriental Studies at St. Petersburg State University
14. Mukhindo Vyalirendi Jacques, Lecturer at the Universite Officielle de Ruwenzori, Butembo, Democratic Republic of Congo
15. Nikolskaya Maya, Acting Director of the Center for African Studies at the MGIMO Institute of International Studies
16. Nikulin Maxim, PhD, Associate Professor at the Department of Theory and History of International Relations, RUDN named after P. Lumumba
17. Sviridov Vsevolod, Expert, Center for African Studies, Higher School of Economics