Is Relativity Space's Terran-R Rocket In Trouble?

Поділитися
Вставка
  • Опубліковано 29 лис 2024

КОМЕНТАРІ • 60

  • @nickfutter6544
    @nickfutter6544 2 місяці тому +27

    It’s been in trouble from day 1. Rocket Lab are always very accurate and honest with their predictions and roadmap.

  • @Honestraccoon
    @Honestraccoon 2 місяці тому +15

    I can already see this scene in Wild Wild Space 2.
    Once the contracts have to move over to Neutron and SPB is just like.. yep.. we launched them for full price.

    • @daveginvesting
      @daveginvesting  2 місяці тому +1

      @@Honestraccoon unfortunately I don't think Ashlee is filming the dev of Terran-R or Neutron but if he was I'd love it!

  • @manofsan
    @manofsan 2 місяці тому +14

    Relativity CEO Tim Ellis was spouting a lot of buzzwords -- 3D printing, big data, etc -- to people who weren't mechanical engineers (that guy Chamath Palihapitiya studied electrical engineering, as did Jeff Bezos, yet he doesn't seem to have even a basic understanding of metallurgy)

  • @nickfutter6544
    @nickfutter6544 2 місяці тому +14

    Smoke and mirrors. Bet the investors wished they’d invested in RKLB this year

  • @manofsan
    @manofsan 2 місяці тому +7

    Hey Dave - while Relativity is falling down, Rocket Lab is moving onward and upward! Stock price has stayed in the 7's for the past week!

  • @Mark_Kiwi
    @Mark_Kiwi 2 місяці тому +15

    Relativity seems to me to be another example (Astra?) of these Silicon valley VC fueled vapour-ware bros, more interested in cashing out their share compensation before it all goes tits up than actually doing stuff properly.

    • @BarbsUsedCars
      @BarbsUsedCars 2 місяці тому +3

      Comes off to me like a case of overly ambitious idea’s without a clear plan to execute. A “we’ll figure that out later” type situation.
      I don’t get the same Shady scammer vibe from Tim Ellis that I immediately got from Chris Kemp

    • @JackMott
      @JackMott 2 місяці тому +1

      they did get a 3d printed booster up there, even if it never made sense to 3d print a metal tube

    • @barryscott6222
      @barryscott6222 2 місяці тому

      Yip. I'll bet someone is syphoning money out of the company somewhere.

  • @trimeta
    @trimeta 2 місяці тому +13

    I've remarked elsewhere that the funniest thing is Rocket Lab now advertises their large-scale carbon fiber fabrication services as a separate line of business. So they're doing the "use our manufacturing tools for external customers" thing that everyone thought Relativity would pivot to...only they're doing it better, because they haven't shown the world that *even they themselves* think it's better to use Old Space subcontractors like Beyond Gravity rather than their own equipment.

    • @daveginvesting
      @daveginvesting  2 місяці тому +3

      @@trimeta this is an interesting point!

  • @FunkyMoneysAndGoldSniffers
    @FunkyMoneysAndGoldSniffers 2 місяці тому +10

    Thank you Dave. You are the man.

    • @daveginvesting
      @daveginvesting  2 місяці тому +1

      @@FunkyMoneysAndGoldSniffers thanks!

  • @TheHolzing
    @TheHolzing 2 місяці тому +8

    I bet that they offered their customers two things:
    1. No upfront payment.
    2. Cancellable at any point by the customer.

  • @BarbsUsedCars
    @BarbsUsedCars 2 місяці тому +6

    I first heard of Relativity when Veritasium made a video about them three years ago. As a space nerd, it’s kind of sad to see what they’ve become. But as someone with RKLB shares good luck Tim, my moneys on Peter and his team.

    • @daveginvesting
      @daveginvesting  2 місяці тому +2

      @@BarbsUsedCars same, Tim did seem to have a laudable goal but they haven't had the execution we hoped for. He'll always get nerd points for being a StarCraft fan as well!

  • @GD-L80
    @GD-L80 2 місяці тому +9

    Tim Ellis wanted to imitate Elon Musk as a salesman but came up short, partly because he did not surround himself with people like Tom Mueller, who could do the ‘dirty’ work, the real engineering work behind the bombastic statements.

  • @geopoli3735
    @geopoli3735 2 місяці тому +4

    Very insightful to see that Rocket Lab and Relativity have raised the same amount for dramatically different results. Once Neutron is on the pad, 1-2y before the Terran R, the game will be set

  • @spongerob72
    @spongerob72 2 місяці тому +5

    I really just think that Relativity has been trying to model itself on spacex and it constantly gives ASTRA vibes, just with the benefit of private VC money. I can't help thinking that a day of reckoning will come where they have to deliver or pack up.

  • @shepdogsd
    @shepdogsd 2 місяці тому +6

    Almost Ponzi Scheme. Out of money? Let's get some more contracts. It's like a contractor who takes YOUR money to finish the LAST job and he never quite catches up and it all comes falling down. Another reason to respect Peter Beck's disiplined business accumen.

  • @Rav4ikOL
    @Rav4ikOL 2 місяці тому +5

    Elizabeth holmes/Sam Bankman-fried/Tim Ellis
    At this point when i see Chamath Helipopotito being in then I immidiately assume that some sort of scam is taking place here.

    • @vladimirhaviernik3568
      @vladimirhaviernik3568 2 місяці тому

      Exactly same vibes. Last thing that is missing is Tim Ellis on the cover of Forbes top 400 😅

  • @rowland5951
    @rowland5951 2 місяці тому +4

    Just like Big Data, 3D printing, and Web3, it comes down to who can tell the best story. Leverage media contacts through the VC firms that back them to pump as much as possible. Chamath being involved should have been a dead giveaway not to take notice.

    • @daveginvesting
      @daveginvesting  2 місяці тому

      @@rowland5951 he is definitely a red flag to me these days.

  • @RyanBlockb5
    @RyanBlockb5 2 місяці тому +7

    Chamal often pulls the rugs on stocks. Swearing he's 100% in, then dumps the stock leaving others holding the bag. Relativity is probably going to be a great company. But be careful when ever Chamal is pumping a company.

    • @daveginvesting
      @daveginvesting  2 місяці тому +1

      @@RyanBlockb5 this does seem to be the M.O unfortunately

  • @Oldman5261
    @Oldman5261 2 місяці тому +4

    I used to be an aerospace engineer and had some involvement and knowledge of 3D metal printing. I know enough about the process to realize that it is not a magic solution for all aerospace structures 20 years ago. There are some things that it makes sense but not for others. One of the biggest issues for its use as a pressure vessel is that it produces a wavy uneven surface and can sag due to gravity when you try to build it up unsupported. Wavy surfaces at geometric discontinuities causes stress risers, which is bad for your design. Don’t think that the engineers within Relativity thought this approach through before proposing it.

    • @daveginvesting
      @daveginvesting  2 місяці тому +2

      @@Oldman5261 it does seem odd, you'd think they would have known that. Maybe they thought they had a fix but it didn't work out.

  • @AIWhale3
    @AIWhale3 2 місяці тому +8

    You should make a video of all the times pump and dump Chamath has been proven wrong. His comments about Rocketlab, “the incapable New Zealand competitor” or his 2020 Virgin Galatic comments have just been hilariously wrong. And then his comments about Relativity, he clearly was trying to pump Relatively to take it public via SPAC before the bubble burst.

    • @daveginvesting
      @daveginvesting  2 місяці тому +4

      @@AIWhale3 I have made videos on a lot of these! Yeah I'm not a fan of his I have to say. He's come out ahead at the expense of retail investors too many times.

    • @AIWhale3
      @AIWhale3 2 місяці тому +1

      I probably saw those videos on your channel then 😂

    • @Mark_Kiwi
      @Mark_Kiwi 2 місяці тому

      great idea @AIWhale3

  • @russellginns6203
    @russellginns6203 2 місяці тому +5

    Nobody cares how the rocket gets made. It just has to launch (with a passing grade.)

  • @RandallAmes
    @RandallAmes 2 місяці тому +1

    Great reporting Dave! Now relativity’s backlog was for launch, only? I didn’t hear anything about any of their other abilities. That would be a Considerable backlog for launch only. That’s like 10 times the launch backlog for rocket lab?. Perplexing

  • @RogerWilco1
    @RogerWilco1 2 місяці тому +1

    I'm an investor in this sector, including Stoke, SpaceX, and a lot of satelite startups (along with public companies like RKLB). Your analysis is good, and you should feel free to be critical of a company, especially one like this which is executing a pivot. I have access to Relativity shares and just decided to pass on buying because I prefer to wait until they have turned a corner and are demonstrating strong execution of their plan. Stoke, for instance, is doing exactly that, even though they have not launched yet (and I expect Stoke will have some failed launches.)
    So, don't hesitate to do analysis like this...as long as you are being prudent and fair, the bear case is FAR more valuable than Bull hype.

    • @RogerWilco1
      @RogerWilco1 2 місяці тому +1

      And I just joined your channel... as an incentive to say "Please keep making videos like this", and because as someone who started watching a few weeks ago, I feel it is worth it.

  • @trevorp657
    @trevorp657 Місяць тому +1

    I sse the Aeon R engine testing everyday in Stennis. This Engine is the real deal folks!!!

  • @vladimirhaviernik3568
    @vladimirhaviernik3568 2 місяці тому +3

    Terran R? More like Terran OS 😅😉👌

  • @paulmalcolm8711
    @paulmalcolm8711 2 місяці тому

    Nice one Dave.

  • @Dustin_ds3000
    @Dustin_ds3000 2 місяці тому

    Great video on Relativity Space as always Dave. I wonder if it would be worth doing a video on Adam Spice's tenure at broadcom and analyzing how well the company did while he was there.

  • @Beveelyhillbilly
    @Beveelyhillbilly 2 місяці тому

    I think this is the first relativiy video i have seen. I know people who bought based on their engineering like pre error welding or somthing. Thyre. All in on that but reluctant on rklb for some reason

  • @barryscott6222
    @barryscott6222 2 місяці тому +3

    Relativity is Toast.
    it is just a question of how long it takes for that reality to sheet home.

  • @stefano1844
    @stefano1844 2 місяці тому +1

    TLDR: They are fucked 😂😂

  • @montyspearo
    @montyspearo 2 місяці тому +6

    Another VO or Astra in making.

  • @alvarosalazar23
    @alvarosalazar23 2 місяці тому +1

    I don´t take Relativity seriously yet, they have accomplished nothing yet. I certainly don't take Chamath´s claims seriously, he is a better salesman than investor

  • @B.I.Oneoffs
    @B.I.Oneoffs 2 місяці тому +1

    Excellent. Nicely done David.

  • @44JohnDoe
    @44JohnDoe 2 місяці тому

    „In Cape Canaveral I think”. So he was not even sure about the location? What kind of ignorance it is.. or incompetence.
    I don’t trust people who have thaat gaps.

  • @TheoriginalTHX007
    @TheoriginalTHX007 2 місяці тому +1

    ❤ it when RKLB trolls the competition 😜

    • @daveginvesting
      @daveginvesting  2 місяці тому

      Well it seems clear it can be done, just only adds a small amount to the bottom line.

  • @anthonycarpenter8650
    @anthonycarpenter8650 2 місяці тому

    😎

  • @Beveelyhillbilly
    @Beveelyhillbilly 2 місяці тому

    Vib

  • @terrya448
    @terrya448 2 місяці тому +2

    I am on Rocket Lab side over Relativity because they have a better track record.

  • @camonthecoast
    @camonthecoast 2 місяці тому +1

    The backlog claims don’t stack up unless they bought into hype. I doubt that company will last. Feels like another Astra.

  • @RandallAmes
    @RandallAmes 2 місяці тому

    Trading volume on RKLB has way more than doubled in the last year, while during prior years it was essentially flat