The last time an incumbent president was able to maintain a house majority during the midterms was Bush in 2002. Every sitting president since then has lost the house in midterm elections. When Trump was in office the house flipped from 241-R to 235-D, a 41 seat shift. Democrats only need to flip 3 seats and if the next two years are chaotic, the chances of them flipping the house only grows.
I have never been able to do a house prediction because of how complicated it is, but I love how you use yapms for other predictions but use 270 to win because it already fills out most seats-so relatable...
Perry will unfortunately go down, but the eighth district should most likely stay red. The seventh is really a toss up, but since Shapiro is at the top pf the ballot, it might narrowly flip back to the dems, well just have to see.
With Utah I’ve herd dems there not guaranteed the seat because if heard it’s gonna be a competitive district like D+ 1 but it still could end up being a safe seat will see (from slc here)
Is it for certain that the Salt Lake area will be redrawn as it's own district (as it should be)? The Republican legislature gerrymandered the crap out of Utah by dividing the salt lake area into four parts combined with huge chunks of rural Utah.
@@negative7proxyI live in slc and hope slc gets its own district but given our states history/proposed plans there gonna throw St. George into the district and only divide salt lake county into 2 not 4
Don backn has proven time and time again that hes an electoral juggernaut. Three times now hes been able to fend off opponents who had the backing of the national party may I add. Bacon gonna brong home the bacon and eggs too.
Salutation GPK I hope you have a Happy New Year your early prediction 223 Democrats and 212 Republicans is not bad but a pragmatic prediction, The prediction will be around 222 to 225 Democrats and 213 to 210 Republicans again this is just a rough draft prediction not a confirm prediction but an estimated prediction but at the same time being pragmatic and realistic, 224 Democrats and 211 Republicans if it is a Democrat blue wave year I could see Nebraska 2nd District could flip Democrats.
I think CO-8 will flip back to blue because Gabe Evans doesn't have any pro-environment policies, in fact he has quite the opposite of them and Colorado was a leader in environmental change and I think because many Coloradans appreciate that he will go down especially considering that all but 1 of his ads that attacked Yadira Caraveo were completely false and those lies may have made him win so without them I don't think Gabe Evans will hold on.
@@GoldenPoliticalKat we shall see let's if it it's like blue wave just like in the midterms in 2018 then it's quite possible that 2nd congressional district in Nebraska could get flip
@ maybe in the Ohio case, however you are dismissing potential gains in Virgina, Michigan, Iowa, NJ, Florida, Arizona, California,etc. many of these seats had close races at the presidential level or the house level. We shouldn’t dismiss these potential gains.
With how dysfunctional the house is looking to be, Dems in each district could run on bringing back order to the House.
But that would be a lie, all the Dems can campaign on are lies
The last time an incumbent president was able to maintain a house majority during the midterms was Bush in 2002. Every sitting president since then has lost the house in midterm elections.
When Trump was in office the house flipped from 241-R to 235-D, a 41 seat shift. Democrats only need to flip 3 seats and if the next two years are chaotic, the chances of them flipping the house only grows.
I have never been able to do a house prediction because of how complicated it is, but I love how you use yapms for other predictions but use 270 to win because it already fills out most seats-so relatable...
@@YourAverageProgrammer1 It is just so much easier, plus trying to remember each district is a pain.
Yeah, I believe that Utah will become a swing in a few decades.
Same with Kansas
@@klm0016 if they do become swing states democrats have opportunities to flip senate seats as well i'm looking forward
Either Gottheimer NJ-5 or Sherrill NJ-11 is likely going to the governorship, so I wouldn't consider those seats as safe with a new candidate.
Very nice and genuine commentary.
Keep going and soon you'll take over Let's Talk Elections.
Why does everyone have Ohio-13 flipping? Sykes is insanely popular and Coughlin was a really strong opponent. Don’t see her losing
@mryeetus6075 Ohio is getting a new congressional map that’s why. Republicans are going to gerrymander two seats away from the Dems there.
Kelly Ayotte doesn’t support mid-decade redistricting in New Hampshire. She said the timing is off. She’d probably veto it.
@@L.A.M-s4t Thanks for telling me
@ You’re welcome!
Looks like the days of the out of power party flipping 20-60 seats in the House is officially over.
I think the Democrats will win both the house and the Senate
So excited that my home seat of PA-10 is being forecasted to flip finally!
And FYI, PA-8 voted for Trump by 9 in 2024.
Perry will unfortunately go down, but the eighth district should most likely stay red. The seventh is really a toss up, but since Shapiro is at the top pf the ballot, it might narrowly flip back to the dems, well just have to see.
I agree for the most part, although I think NY-17 and NY-19 go red as well as PA-07
I hope so! I think NY - 22nd stays blue, considering the democrat just beast the GOP incumbant, plus it's been gerrymandered.
@ I meant 19th
I predict Democrats will win the House back by picking up 10 seats.
Harris Vs JD Vance?
I had notifs on why didn’t UA-cam alert me?
That’s odd I heard others are having issues on their vids
With Utah I’ve herd dems there not guaranteed the seat because if heard it’s gonna be a competitive district like D+ 1 but it still could end up being a safe seat will see (from slc here)
Is it for certain that the Salt Lake area will be redrawn as it's own district (as it should be)? The Republican legislature gerrymandered the crap out of Utah by dividing the salt lake area into four parts combined with huge chunks of rural Utah.
@@negative7proxyI live in slc and hope slc gets its own district but given our states history/proposed plans there gonna throw St. George into the district and only divide salt lake county into 2 not 4
Don backn has proven time and time again that hes an electoral juggernaut. Three times now hes been able to fend off opponents who had the backing of the national party may I add. Bacon gonna brong home the bacon and eggs too.
i have friends that live in CA-41 and they say that Ken Calvert is pissing them off
Hey GPK can you do a Obama v Cruz 2020 election prediction with Obama running for reelection after beating Trump in 2016?
I think that Katie Hobbs can reelect herself
Not happening, especially since Kari Lake isn't running again. She screwed up the Arizona GOP bad.
Is this a left leaning channel?
is say hes unbiased esp compared to others but yeah slightly left leaning
No he is independent, however he is slightly left.
No. He is independent
yup he is left leaning
Honestly would be a pretty disappointing midterm for Dems
Wisconsin is gerrymandered
Yes it is, in the future they may get a 4-4 congressional map.
@@GoldenPoliticalKat it could it depends if they can hold the Supreme court in April 1st election
Salutation GPK I hope you have a Happy New Year your early prediction 223 Democrats and 212 Republicans is not bad but a pragmatic prediction, The prediction will be around 222 to 225 Democrats and 213 to 210 Republicans again this is just a rough draft prediction not a confirm prediction but an estimated prediction but at the same time being pragmatic and realistic, 224 Democrats and 211 Republicans if it is a Democrat blue wave year I could see Nebraska 2nd District could flip Democrats.
I think CO-8 will flip back to blue because Gabe Evans doesn't have any pro-environment policies, in fact he has quite the opposite of them and Colorado was a leader in environmental change and I think because many Coloradans appreciate that he will go down especially considering that all but 1 of his ads that attacked Yadira Caraveo were completely false and those lies may have made him win so without them I don't think Gabe Evans will hold on.
Really Dan Bacon is reelected, I do believe that will be a backlash to Trump. His policy is very controversial.
Bacon always finds a way to narrowly survive
@@GoldenPoliticalKat let's see. yeah, I was surprised he survived I believe the Democrats will control the House until 2028 or 2030s.
@@GoldenPoliticalKat we shall see let's if it it's like blue wave just like in the midterms in 2018 then it's quite possible that 2nd congressional district in Nebraska could get flip
Honestly kind of BS prediction!
@@coopernicholl6094 the House of Representatives nearly always flips in the midterms in favor of the opposition party.
@ I mean the amount of gains democrats get, that’s very low. At least 20 seats
It is due to gerrymandering by republicans for why the gains are low.
@ maybe in the Ohio case, however you are dismissing potential gains in Virgina, Michigan, Iowa, NJ, Florida, Arizona, California,etc. many of these seats had close races at the presidential level or the house level. We shouldn’t dismiss these potential gains.
Very doubtful when voter id 🪪 is enforced across the country
Voter ID does not lower voter turnout it only effects a few thousand voters.