The View from New Delhi: Can IMEC Rival China’s Belt and Road?
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- Опубліковано 5 чер 2024
- In this episode of the China-MENA podcast titled “The View from New Delhi: Can IMEC rival China’s Belt and Road?”, our host Jonathan Fulton and guests Ambassador Navdeep Suri and expert Kabir Taneja explore the India, Middle East, Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) and how it may rival China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). We unravel India’s significant strategic interests in the Middle East and how the region perceives India’s expanded role in driving economic prosperity and enhancing regional security. Dive deeper into:
Beyond Ports: IMEC aims to establish an economic corridor focused on the future, not just connecting ports but also integrating renewable energy grids, green hydrogen, and secure data connectivity.
India’s Strategic Interests in the Middle East: India seeks to reinvigorate its historical ties with the region, capitalizing on its rapid economic growth and the perception of India as a future economic powerhouse. Additionally, India is increasingly seen as a security contributor in the region.
Regional Dynamics and Diplomatic Engagements: Despite challenges like the recent conflict in Gaza, there is continued interest from key players in IMEC. The project is seen as a way to move beyond regional tensions and promote prosperity through better connectivity.
Join us for an enlightening conversation that bridges continents and cultures on the China MENA podcast!
Please listen to full episode here bit.ly/44EqRb0 and subscribe here bit.ly/3rIcKj6
Takeaways:
India, Middle East, Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC)
India's Strategic Interests in the Middle East
Regional Dynamics and Diplomatic Engagements
Quotes:
“IMEC propels us towards future-proof economies, blending technology and energy integration.” - Navdeep Suri
"The geopolitical dynamics of the Middle East offer both a landscape of opportunities and a complex set of challenges for India."- Kabir Taneja
Featured in the Episode:
Navdeep Suri
Former Ambassador of India to UAE & Egypt, High Commissioner to Australia
/ navdeepsuri
Guest LinkedIn: / navdeep-suri-2930452b
Guest Website: www.orfonline.org/people-expe...
Kabir Taneja:
Fellow Strategic Studies Program, Observer Research Foundation
/ kabirtaneja
Guest LinkedIn: / kabirtaneja
Guest website: www.orfonline.org/people-expe...
Jonathan Fulton:
Nonresident Senior Fellow for Middle East Programs at the Atlantic Council. Associate Professor of Political Science at Zayed University in Abu Dhabi
/ jonathan-fulton-2627414b
/ jonathandfulton
Chapters:
00:00 - Introduction
01:39 - Geopolitical and Geoeconomic Considerations
03:16 - Challenges and Ongoing Interest
07:17 - IMEC's Focus on Technology in Transportation
11:28 - Economic Growth in the Gulf Linked to India
14:11 - Growing Strategic Relationships in UAE, Saudi Arabia
17:55 - Exploring Potential Funding Sources
19:11 - Positive Momentum in the Region
25:12 - India's Role in Global Supply Chains
29:51 - Risk Distribution and US-China Contest
31:11 - Outro
The idea of IMEC came after a decade of China's gigantic flagship project called BRI. So, It has no existence before.
The project BRI is not a competition with any country. This is a dream of Chinese people to connect themselves with the world. With this connection, all the parties connected with this project will deliver win-win cooperation , and will gain win-win benefits to each other.
But, IMEC, even though it is looking forward to delivering benefits among the involved countries, the idea of this project is to counter the BRI. The way this idea develops into their minds, I don't think this project will work as beneficial for them. It has no vision. Its a blind project.
IMEC need four times transhipment
with ongoing conflict in Gaza. israel-UAE corridor seems unlikely
Don't talk too much , get it built first. Than see how and does it benefits . Haven't done it starts counting how many chickens. Just like Biden Built Back Better. Yet nothing better came out.
It is good India is taking this initiative. Built more connectivity for the betterment of the world. China doesn't worried about competition, bring them on. Just like Huawei, every Western countries wanted Huawei collapse without high tech chips. Huawei develop its 7 nm for Mate 60 and 5 nm chips for Pura 70. Huawei built its own OS Harmony.
US don't allow China in ISS International space station. China built its own TianKong (heavenly Palace space station). many many more to come. Live with it...... 😂😅
A project that came about just to counter another does not bode well for its success.
It's all day dreaming, with hardly anything to show after a decade... Non-stop bragging is an Indian norm. Trust me 🤭🤣🤣🤣
On scale, I don't think IMEC is comparable to BRI. Of course, to build up the proposed IMEC, publicity to rival BRI will bring good attention. In any transport link, its viability is essentially based on a 2-way traffic, otherwise someone has to subsidize some of the costs involved. After all all dreams must start someway.
What is the nature and purpose of BRI?
- Export China‘s infrastructure building capacity in terms of manpower, materials and technology. (1st tier of profits)
- Act as a bank to lend money and collect interests to those countries that needs finance. (2nd tier of profits)
- At the same time, divert its risk of putting all trade surplus in US currency, hence selling off US bond and invest in Global South countries.
- After railways build to connect landlock countries and improve port efficiency, Chinese goods can trade with ease and in volume.(3rd tier of profits)
- Good will between China and BRI partners.
Conclusion: BRI projects were based on economic benefits for China, thats why its worth it to invest 1 trillion $ so far, another trillion on its way. (2nd phases).
If it bring no economic benefits to any party, or lack of maximum usage, then its not economically viable which destine to failure.
With examples set by BRI, lets exam IMEC. (from port of Mumbai to Oman, railways from Oman, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Jordon and Israel)
- Trade with India still couldn‘t reach to any regional centres by railways but use the same old Mumbai port. Nothing new. Sea transport between Mumbai and Arab world is still the same.
- The Railways link from Oman to Jordon is viable to promote human transportation between Arab world, but not much goods were traded because their economic is very similar to each other.
- Industrial products export to Arab world from India or Israel were not much and already existed. IMEC won‘t boost extra trade between India and Arab world.
- For India to export to Europe and vice versa, the best and economical ways is still the same seafreight thru Suez Canal. Once again, IMEC is useless to boost the trade between India and Europe.
Conclusion: Same old Mumbai Port, same old seafreight and same old export markets.
IMEC servs no purpose to boost trade for India, but it does boost human transportation in Arab world. India remains side-lined.
My suggestion to India.
- Upgrade Mumbai port, although its the same old port but it will boost its efficiency and increase trade volume to existing markets.
- Railway link to China-Pakistan rail which will open markets in Five (+1) Stan landlock countries in centra Asia. India might produced better products then China, but they will still buy from China because of cheaper tansportation.
India can import cheaper materials like cotton, minerals, grains and energy from that region too. At this moment, all the cheap materials goes to China.
- A direct railway link to China via NE 7 sister states, and turn NE 7 states into an export hub.
- Another railway link thru Myanmar, Thailand to ASEAN countries. Although this link is not very important because most of trade exchange can be done by seafreight, but it will promote tourist transportation alone all neighbore countries.
Well, here is my 2 cents.
IMEC and Build Back Better, or any infrastructure built for any economic corridors will not effect China‘s BRI.
Although China could not make Tier 1 and 2 profits, but they are still going to make profits (Tier3) by exporting their industrial products to every corner of the world.
More countries involve in connection infrastructure, even its a domestic network like India‘s 5 economic railway network to improve mobility between major cities within India. China will still benefit one way or another.
Conclusion:
Profits were not generated by merely building transportation infrastructure, but the goods and services that moved via these infrastructure.
And China got plenty of goods to export.😂😆
Forget about IMEC things....India should import millions of Toilets from China for there Women's and girls.
.men can still used street , train tracks and out in wood....
Go China and the BRI Partnerships!
IMEC, great idea, India can help US build high speed rail
That'll be the biggest joke of the century! 🤣🤣🤣
Call me crazy, but I think t'd be better for India to supply working toilets and plumbing to its population, rather than "countering" China's Belt and Road.
China's trade to India : 115B
India's trade to China : 18B.
😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂
What do you think?
If you view the Belt and Road Initiative as a rival, you’ve already lost your shirt. It’s a trade network, and adding more connections to it means creating a mutually beneficial relationship by increasing its value. How on earth is that a rivalry? That’s incredibly shortsighted and downright foolish.
India talk all day. Nothing is done.