Fear of the kind Thucydides refers to is rooted in self-doubt not the threat of a rising competitor. As an example, if Brazil (with its large population and abundant natural resources) aspired to world dominance in every field on Allison's list, the United States would not be afraid: there is no threat because there is no doubt that Brazil would fail. China, however, is astonishingly industrious: it can lay a bridge in under an hour. We can't. Our fear, like Sparta's and England's, is rooted in self-doubt. The doubt is real and substantive. The threat imposed by a rising power is not a "trap" for the existing power as Allison loves to repeat (like a two-year who has found a new word he likes and that others like as well.) History confirms that the threat is not a trap for it is not inevitable. The threat is, however, a challenge - one that requires overcoming self-doubt with resolve and work. Alas, the fear that is rooted in self doubt is nothing but a tendency that accrues to the powerful when they become lazy and indentured to old glories that they did not earn but only inherited and then wasted. When the wind stops blowing, row. Perhaps I should take the current in the rising tide of women, or lose my fortune. (Shakespeare)
@@umrlih You might be missing something. 7.5 billion people. Over 3 billion eat meat. The majority of the wealth is concentrated in a small %. Robotics. The displacement of workers. Arms buildup. History. How many did USA kill in the Indian/ American Wars? How many did China kill w Mao? IMO, "they", the .001%, are going to eradicate everyone and only billionaires and some doctors, scientists and a bunch of robots will remain. Get Ready. War is coming!
Those bridges they put up in an hour, are the same bridges they put everywhere. Ever see some of their sky lines, the same buildings built over and over and over again. Not complaining, its a good idea.
It is very entertaining, indeed. But far from anything insightful. I can point out immediately several serious - as they are fundamental - flawed assumptions: 1. That China's rise is organic. I contend it's anything but - based on theft, coercion and fascism. China's technological progress is like blonde dyed brunette: artifical. 2. That US is like any other country in history. It is not - American Exceptionalism is truly one-of-a-kind. I freely admit this is the unique construction never seen before, and it changed history of everything forever. And I'm no American. 3. That China is interested in first place. It is not. It is aiming at complete hegemony. And it is in unique position to obtain that by military - although most definitely not by conventional - means. Basically any country today is. 4. China is becoming largest prison in the world. It will be impossible to keep together without common goal - in stark contrast to USA - which HISTORICALLY (panelists seem to worship that word) - was war. 5. Chinese economy is dependent on export. This country cannot sustain itself with economical structure like this. If something will trigger global financial crisis, China is gone within a year. And I will immediately counter the counter-argument (that China has depth to endure trade war) - with this: how economy based on export can endure cutting off it's biggest sale market? 6. For old wise men they seem to be blinded by the history of China. It is impressive, indeed, but China did not obtain its position today using it's old method. It copied USA. How that is not an argument in this discussion is beyond me. Saying Chinese way is better because it's tradition is BS.
In Canada a overpass on a major highway was replaced the same way as in china, it took 48 hours as well. This is just a method that can be done with newer bridges. Plus an overpass is a lot different as far as engineering challenges compared to renovated an ancient bridge over a river which was made with techniques that have few skilled people experienced in. A stone bridge is way more labor intensive. In fact they aren't even the same job. One is a renovation of a historical bridge another is a direct replacement of a concrete bridge assembled out of modular pieces onsite. This i believe is part of the Chinese propaganda to get westerners to think they have a superior system. Overpass replacements on major highways are always done like this all over the world. It may take longer to go ahead with the building granted but at the same time in our system we can't have Mao tell everyone to kill some bird because it eats the crops, leading to a famine because later it was realized it dint eat crops it ate insects. Centralized power allows for people to make huge mistakes without anyone able to stop them.
For the viewers at home .>>> Allison coined the phrase Thucydides Trap to refer to when a rising power causes fear in an established power which escalates toward war. Thucydideswrote: "What made war inevitable was the growth of Athenian power and the fear which this caused in Sparta."
India and China have been neighbours for 3000 years without fighting a war with each other ( except a border war in 1962 this also had a British Legacy) and can easily resolve their border dispute and form a NATO like defence alliance under BRICS. It is reasonable to accept Russia loving and joining such a defence pact.
Pardeep Tandon My Indian friend dont swallow Tibet. For thousands of years there were no borders between China and India. You are quite ignorent of history in your subcontinent. After 1949 when the Chinese communist came to power Tibet was annexed. Tell me what history do you have for 3000 years nothing. After Tibet was controlled by china they became your new neighbour and than you had 1962 war. Recently you had Doklam problem. Now you spend millions of dollars to keep the borders save from china from Ladhak to north east of India 4000kms. Before 1949 the border between Tibet and India there wasnt a single sepoy or police. We trade with India and visit Buddhist pilgrimage sites in India and visaverse visit Hindu pilgrimage to Mount Kailash and Mansorova in Tibet. I believe that it is in the best interest of India to join the USA.
@@Bhoetuk Well, As far as I know the Indian capital city does not have pagoda housing Tibetan scrolls of religious text, the indian capital city does not have palaces built for either Dalai Lama nor Panchen Lama. The territorial dispute between India and Tibet relatively small, mostly just Tawang Arunachel Pradesh and Ladak and Aksai Chin. The territorial dispute between China and Tibet relatively huge, concening the entire ando tibet and kham tibet. And I don't get why any tibetan wanna call Gang Rinpoche and Mapam Yumtso by any other names. If the Manchus never defeated Zuungars when they occupied lahsa, if they didn't push back Sikh empire, if the Chinese never retaliated against Nepal after they wiped the entire Tibetan army. Yeah, I think in that scenario, it would be a lot easier for tibet to get its independence. Oh, and if the then independant Tibet under 13th Dalai didn't invade Ando Tibet under the control of Chinese Muslims.
If 500 men are placed in a room and asked to solve a common task? The men will quickly gravitate towards one leader, who will in turn skillfully designate and appropriate the skills hje sees in the men he has at his command, and the task will be accomplished, materials and money being the only variables to how fast. If 500 women are placed in a room and given a common task, they will quickly gravitate into small groups of three, and gossip forever about the haircuts, jewelry, and clothes the other women are wearing. Nothing will get done. Very quickly, the novelty will wear off, and the funds and materials will dry up, nobody wants to pay women to stand around, do nothing and gossip, not in a store, and not in Congress.
This discussion is all over the place covering topics from climate change to sky net AI. I was looking for specific discourse on the political dynamic between rising power and existing power.
This conversation almost completely ignores the cost/risk benefit analysis with respect to time for a war between China and the US. At the current time assuming there's no nuclear escalation the US has little to gain from a war with China and while the cost of men, material, and political capital is not huge it still significantly out weighs the benefit. China on the other hand has a significant benefit of gaining dominance over all of east Asia. However China risks the complete ruin of their national economy and collapse of off their political system and possibly the loss of resource rich western provinces. As time passes the risk/cost benefit analysis stays relatively static for the United States but could significantly change for China. While their benefit remains unchanged the cost diminishes as they're economy diversifies and their political system becomes less dependent on a growing economy. Hence the likelihood for war is minimal for 15 to 20 years but greatly increases in the years following.
Simple conclusion to the above subject; unless the strategic planners in Beijing and Washington DC became like the idiot Donald Trump; this 2 nations will not go to war. Come on people, you think that Russia and the other nuclear-armed States will just stand idly by and allow anyone to blow this planet up ?
cleverinsane trump, Maybe you looked at only the bad things the West had done. Did the West do anything good, specifically good to China, such as Westernization 西化? Did China benefit from 西化? As a matter of fact all the world has benefitted by 西化?
This is not true! You are ignorant of history. The west just did it better. It is time for humanity to look at the mistakes of history and work together to avoid the crime of war. No human being has the right to take another's life unless In defense of life.
There is no solution. Strife will be a constant as long as humanity exists. The US is the hegemonic power and will still be for decades to come. China's economy is grossly overstated by Chinese data. It will struggle to improve their current standards.
You just like the organ stealing baby killing and that their people have no rights. And that the rich in there country are in charge of everything. You must be a pig
Janis how will China Rise???? What is an Economy ?:) Goods and Services produced and Consumed !!! China is in a demographic Death Spiral,fewer and fewer consumers/students/soldiers/taxpayers/factory workers ....How will it Rise??? America in 2018 has more Millennials than Boomers,the only major economy that has that situation..China is dying ,just like Europe...Why ??Because thats what the Math Says!!!
@@funkiam9214 wait until you live in China, The major problem is unequal opportunities. If youre not a member of the communist party? good luck!! If Jack Ma was not a member of the communist party he would have been nobody! Pls dont BS, there are tons of opportunities in China, give it a year!
Cognitive Science (Cog-Sci) shows the link between Massed-Human-Thinking, versus Governance. Every serious student of management know this. Social Psychology has its roots in Cognitive Science. Cog-Sci is a greatly neglected but very much needed Science. Perhaps I'm the only person in Australia (A.C.T.) showing the needed urgency to this problem.
Actually there are so many examptions in other civilizations in the history for the Thucydides Trap. Why can't US accepted other country's legemate rights for their own development, for improving living standard of their own people, for the pursuit of life happiness? Come on! This is 21th century now, different civilazations should and must live peaceful with each other instead of the situation that one's wining based on the other's lose. That's the right way
Are you really telling me that the US doesn't accept England right for their own development and improving standards and for their own people to peruse happiness??? No, you don't mean England. Chances are you don't mean 99 percent of countries out there would fit in that description but it just sounds SO MUCH better if it the USA felt that way about every country, and not a communism collectivist government. So why can't you admit it has nothing to do with 'other countries' and instead just one.
@@meganh9460 Well，actually US always try to defeat any so called challenger in the past 80 years, including USSR, Japan and now Russia and China. No matter was the USSR or Japan, US tried all its efforts to demonize these two countries first before the so called war through the media, economically and ideologically. Quite same as what happens nowadays! Are these demonized factors true? So many people, having not been to China mainland before, believe in which these western media reported undoubtfully, picture China as a evil country, a country with no human rights, people with no freedom. I have to say the real China is absolutely not the western media pictured in the screen before western ordinary people. Only live in China for some time, you would know what the real ordinary Chinese are, what the Chinese government is, what is the CCP, what the advantages and disadvantages of one party system. Learning from different perspectives can help you get a profound understanding.
An excellent discussion and worth the time to watch the entire video if you are serious about learning more about the China-USA rivalry. Even the Q&A at the end was high quality. I think the professor is giving the Trump administration too much credit for strategically analyzing this rivalry.
The real problem is the westernism : the mindset that says that the western worldview is the only valid one and that western imperialism should be the only song book for the rest of humanity. The conquest and colonialism of Africa, South America and Asia have so impregnated the western mind that we, in the West, are incapable of thinking out of that box. So even our so-called “objectivity” is biased.
16:30, Three things I would like to add to what was said. In the first quarter of 2018, China for the first time surpassed the US in total box office revenue , 3.17 billion compared to 2.85 billion in North America. China top grossing film in 2017 was the 'Wolf Warrior'. The yuan has since depreciated dramatically , so the US likely will end 2018 higher than China (in box office revenue). China also has surpassed the US in book production havw 470,000 new titles compared to 339,000 in the US (don't know the date this occurred. In 2015, it surpassed the US in built wealth asset which is the total value of building and infrastructure contributing to economic productivity. The US infrastructure valued at 36.8 trillion US dollars in 2015 compared to 47.6 trillion in China.
Only because our government sold us out and that china steals intellectual property. If our government had the balls to stop ALL imports from china, china would fade back to obsecurity. Americans are sick and tired of being force fed made in china garbage.
Regarding Russia: it's important to realize that the federal budget of Russia is smaller than the budget of the state of California (and also smaller than the budget of Japan). Now China is four times the size of USA (demographically), and USA is over twice as large as Russia (which means that China is almost 10 times as large as Russia). Eventually the per capita GDP values will catch up, with global parity in that sense, and China will be exponentially more powerful than USA, and Russia will be far below either of them. China's "deference" to Russia, now, is little more than recognition that Russia is its immediate neighbor across its northern border (Russia has a very large back yard, called Siberia). China has zero fear of Russia - rather, Russia has the capacity to be, perhaps, a nuisance factor to China (if those two should ever find themselves going head-to-head). When Putin and Xi Jinping are together in the same photo, it is Putin who is deferent and respectful and even cowering. USA and Russia against China? Very unlikely. China, historically, has little if any interest in military expansion. China as a global threat is minimal; rather, China is more interested in exercising its economic energy and influence - hence Belt and Road, etc., etc.. In terms of China and USA competition, there will be less and less competition as the years go by - China will simply dominate, as a natural occurrence of its size and of its history as a source of ingenuity and inventiveness. USA is also resourceful, but it simply will not be able to keep up with China. Hence, all things considered, what USA should be doing right now is to support and strengthen all of the international institutions and multi-lateral agreements around the world. But instead, USA's current habit of attacking international institutions and favoring unilateral activity, is pure insanity. Trump is a fool, a pure idiot, who believes that USA will remain #1 in technology and economics forever, which is just plain wrong. It is very much in USA's best interests to interact with China (e.g., in Belt and Road, and with the International Space Station, etc., etc.), and to help the UN become the arbiter of international rules and norms. Only with strong international institutions will it be possible to keep China at the table, so to speak. Otherwise China will establish its own rules, however it wishes. This so-called "Thucydides Trap" could be genuine, but USA needs to generate some historical perspective and realize that it must now play the long game and begin focusing on international institutions rather than only on USA. The tension and ultimate conflict suggested by Thucydides is of course possible, but not inevitable. USA needs to wake up and wise up.
China will have much older demographics before their actual economic power gets close to the US, which it isn't despite the powerpoints shown here. China is and will be important, but it's not a comparable power to the US and it's not clear whether it will be in the foreseeable future.
I liked the thought, US should learn to live with the rising power from the east which is china, we have a very strong example in the past soon after the world war-II when the then declining superpower, the UK, just synched with the USA and got benefited out of the power of the then-emerging power USA soon after world war-II, British was more prudent and realistic in the changing global power game.
The three of them are clueless anyway. They are a great example of how being highly certified doesn't mean you are highly clued. Hopefully the respective administrations of the US and China know much better. Both countries have impending economic crises coming.
In short, attraction, is key, to escape Thucydides Trap. Explanation: to escape Thucydides Trap, we need to look at the framework of democracy. In here, at the very core of the democratic value system, we find the value of equality. By strengthening this specific value, within our own society, to a level where people in our society, once again, will start to believe in the system, and moreover in them selfs too, we also start to attract people from China. They will want the same type of valua system too. The METOO movement is a potential starting point, to strengthen the core Democratic value of equality. Until this process has been completed, and in terms of foreign policy, each actor (the West and China) has to keep each other in check. But domestically speaking, democracy must be strengthened to its absolute peak. ** Military conflict, tradewar, sanctions, and so forth, will only activate the trap.
This alligator is friendly, it just wants to grow up nice and big and become many pairs of shoes..here take this raw hamburger and hand feed it. It's how we escape dated Greek historical ramblings... This is just another example of "the smartest people in the room" being completely clueless and confused. I admit it was entertaining and a good laugh.
I think that the world is big enough for more than one super power. Americas rise to power was unique and relatively recent in modern history. It is a fact that more than 90% of Americas existence it has been involved in wars or military actions. I believe that the access of information is a major positive factor in hopefully balancing these percent's by future major periods of true global peace. The industrial military complex of this country is in my opinion a crime against humanity. My generation has access to facts and data that my ancestors did not. In a short period of time I predict that enough people in my country will be wise enough to not fall for these false reasons on why we should go to war. The people will truly eventually understand how war only benefits the wealthy and elite by manipulating the opinions of the weak and distracted. In ancient times there existed super powers, granted they did not have the destructive weapons of the modern era but they shared a common belief in that war between them was not beneficial. The evils of war are known to all modern countries yet we still allow it to occur. I believe it is up to the major powers of the world specifically India Russia China USA and a few others to keep global peace and help each other develop technology in a fair way that allows friendly competition and doesn't motivate the great powers to undercut and attempt to supplant the others progress . I know this sounds hypocritical as an American given the behavior of my country in the last few decades but I am only one man. A young man who looks at his elders with respect but understands the mistakes they have made due to a lack of perspective. I believe the world is big enough for all nations to prosper. With the daunting reality of just how small the earth is and how big the universe it is a part of, maybe this in time will be enough to put our differences hatred and misunderstandings in proper perspective and we will realize as the human race just how much we can benefit from changing our own primitive tribal ways. (p.s. my grammar is terrible I know but please try and understand the point and stay positive) =)
Its not hypocritical, just a bit naive. The global game is played by too many players for any group to be able to stop it, and it has never stopped. You always get a new supply of players who want their turn at playing the game. You have the global game, the regional game, the local game, the financial game etc etc etc. Lets say I get lucky and convince the 5 major powers to all stop playing the game, at least against each other, this won't stop individuals who believe themselves to be patriots fighting for their countries interests. That will spark problems but the real problem is that it becomes too beneficial in the short term to lie and continue playing the game from the shadows. I always thought space could be our way out of that game. I have pushed for an idea that any human that leaves Earth for more than 5 years can no longer be under any one government but a member of Earth as a whole. I am hoping we can make it to space before we destroy ourselves, then prevent wars from continuing in space as I don't think we have a hope for it down here. There is also some truth in USA being the world policeman. Its a deterrence. The last 4 major wars that America didn't start, the aggressor was told specifically that America would not get involved. This has back fired tho as Americans are starting to understand the long standing hatred in some parts of the country that don't fade quickly. Once America falls back, they will be forgotten as enemies as 50 years is a very short amount of time with nations that have survived for thousands of years.
China, historically, was the geatest innovator and explorer and discoverer full of entrepreneurial talent and energy. Joseph Needham has an entire bookshelf of studies that he developed regarding a historical record of China's history of innovations over the many years and centuries when China was healthy and powerful. BTW: when the noun "Cambridge" appears by itself, without any qualifiers, in a sentence or in conversation (and that sentence or conversation occurs anywhere other than in Boston, Massachusetts), then the reference is to a University and its University Town north east of London in the UK. When that term is meant to refer to the twon on the other side of the Charles River from Boston, Massachusetts, where Harvard and MIT are also located, then the term that is used is "Cambridge, Massachusetts." The ONLY time when the single noun Cambridge refers to the the town near Boston in Massachusetts is when that term is used in the vicinity of Boston, Massachusetts.
Can someone show this program to LeBron, Steve Kerr, ect.. Just so that they can know what is going on over there, because they want equal rights for blacks but the hell with Hong Kong 🤔
Re: "John Peter 2" Below: Peaceful world?? You haven't any education apparently. It takes decades of reading and travel to learn about cultures. THAT is why young people do not have the capacity ANYWHERE (thank god the Chinese culture respects their elders generally, and much better than the western cultures) to make national or global decisions. "John Peter", it would be better if you just spent your time reading instead of blah, blah, blahing about most things that you are uneducated about. However, from long experience, with 1 general exception, your comment about how young people DO NOT have enmity against each other internationally is True ON an INDIVIDUAL BASIS, (NOT a GROUP BASIS, as there are many constant examples of youth violence worldwide, continuously.), which is a GOOD(!). (notice that I'm trying to be objective and kind with you?--try to extend that to others, as it makes a more "peaceful world". That would be a much better method.) I spend my time helping the disadvantaged people that I meet anywhere, daily. That takes discipline and selflessness to be focused on "good". I encourage that, as it has the greatest impact, vs. complaining and criticizing any other age group. The 1 exception that I have seen is the serious threat that Islam imposes on the world by it's every age group, and mostly the Young ones who are basically indoctrinated by these madrassas to dominate, imperialistically, everything that is not it's brand of violent islam. With that said, It would be great if most islamics practiced Sufism, which is by far the most non-violent version of Islam. Read an "A God Who Hates" by Wafa Sultan, a Syrian MD, and Psychiatrist. I will post a free link for the pdf, if you will read, so let me know. I don't have any attitude with you, "JP". It is a fascinating picture of Islamic society and the destructive, horrible nature of it with constant female suicides, pedophilia, and many perverse features. It's not wondering the level of violence coming from it. Also, Tibet was a free and independent nation until the CHINESE Imperialistic Communists overthrew the quiet kingdom with force and importing millions of Han to out-breed the Tibetians from existence. If you like, I can forward a video documentary from a Tibetian man who went in 'undercover' and videoed all of what I refer to. They are enforcing mass sterilization of Tibetian women unless they become communist. It is genocide, as the communists have always done. So much for the peaceful communist GOVERNMENT. That is not the "peaceful" Chinese picture that you present. It's the communists I despise, not the Chinese, who have a marvelous, continuous culture and people. I have had many Chinese live with me, who I think are some of the best people I have known, and of ALL ages. Communists, anywhere, are the other violent source of war, besides violent Islam continuous danger to peace in the world, besides many in the US government who have imperialistic, 1 -world globalist goals. It's interesting that until the communists came to power, that Tibet was free. Also, the (Truly peaceful) Vietnamese have fought 2 modern wars against Chinese communists, defeating them both times. They also, in their distant past have fought wars with China. There are 3 Continuous actors globally for war, Communists (which includes the Chinese/Russian Gov's.), the US, and the violent Islamics. How can you miss all of that "John Peter"? It's on Every News channel, Globally, Daily. It's just a suggestion. Patience is learned with age only. I hope you learn and enjoy that. Be Kind to ALL others.
PLS LOOK AT THE MAP OF CHINA AND TIBET AND STUDY IT CAREFULLY. CHINA CANNOT ALLOW TIBET TO BE LIKE ISRAEL IN THE MIDDLE EAST BCOS TIBET IS PRO AMERICAN.
Americans are anti war. Unfortunately our government is not and has not been an "American" government for quite sometime. Our government is under total control by z ionist!
Communists followers do not have a monopoly - as far as being a Violent Source of War. Humans butcher each other EVERYWHERE. You, however only highlighted Tibet as an example to prove your point that China's Communists are land invaders, committing genocide, forced sterilization, etc, etc. The Americans wiped out the American Indians; is that not genocide ? On the subject of Tibet, if China had not taken over that place (whether they invade or not can be debated endlessly), I will bet that Tibet would have been an opportunity for the US to foist a war between India and China. You also highlighted Islam and ONLY added a sentence saying 'many in the US Government' as a continuous Danger to world peace. Your China-bashing, Communist-bashing Islamic-bashing is so typical of idiots growing up in ignorance and you have the cheek to advocate "Patience" ? Fuck you, you hypocrite !
Haven't heard a word about China's wasted coastline polluted water coral reefs diisappearing. Maybe that is Korea Japan. I have heard the USA is building more military bases in the area.
Not doubt the speakers are very accomplished and intelligent people! Although the tone of the conversation is very moderate and even congenial compared with those who are hostile to China and there are a lot of good take-aways for the audience. However, I believe some of the messages that they are sending out are not good for the world. For example, nobody should be against anybody anymore! The world should be multi-lateral, and world democracy should be promoted instead of the "enemy & allies" "destroy" "fighting" "dominance" "power" "carrots and sticks", the "heroic and patriotic" regime-change wars, cultural supremacy, white supremacy, and all those connotations that come with the "good American system" you are so proud of. Countries should be equal partners coexisting and cooperating for a peaceful and prosperous world, with each having their own strengths and witnesses and trading fairly. Forget about the death trap of power struggle! Stop using such terms as evil ideology and enemies to demonize the system that is different from yours. As much as you will never want to admit, the Chinese system has been good for the people in general in a lot of ways! Using those labels incite prejudice and discrimination for China and the Chinese immigrants around the world. Be aware of the consequences of your words! The American system does not work very well at all. Look at all the inequality, injustices, wastefulness, poverty, social friction and isolation, workplace violence, job insecurity, unemployment, high crime rate, mental illness, stress level, and the ineffectiveness of the government! Living in the ivory tower of Harvard with your summer home, investments, and your retirement package, you do not see the hardship that derived from the structural defects of your beloved economic, political and social system that are plaguing more than half of the American population. You don't see the inhumane condition of the homeless. You don't feel the pain of a man paying 1/3 of his income as health insurance and still get a big bill for an emergency hospital run, almost half of the income as rent, and with the rest spreading thinly on other necessities like cell phone, food, and everything else. You don't know what it is like when the low income earners' wage never goes up while the prices of goods and services are shooting up like rockets. You don't feel the sinking feeling that home-ownership is slipping away or never going to happen as well as the frustrations and helplessness from dealing with the landlord. You don't know the anxiety a person feels when he or she does not have personal security due to poor housing or no housing. You don't feel the workplace problems such as bullying, discrimination, overly competitive or insecure coworker, job insecurity, harsh or unfair boss, etc. You don't understand the anguish of the unemployed. The list goes on and on for people living at the bottom of the economic ladder, most of whom will never be able to get out of it even if they work themselves to death. Just because the system works for you does not mean it is a good system. Stop lying to yourself, the poor and the disadvantaged about the merits of the system, please! The sooner the lies stop, the sooner the process will begin to find better solutions! This is nothing personal, and I fully respect you as a person and an accomplished scholar!
You cannot have a Chinese system, for Bolivians or an American system for Bolivians. Americans live on some of the richest land in the world, that kind of advantage is not replicated everywhere. This is why Greece and Italy are falling, trying to have the same economic rules and system as the richer norther Nations. Chinese are already talking about spreading 'Socialism with Chinese characteristics.' Did they learn nothing from watching America spread democracy and individualism? There is a great book on my toilet right now called the end of poverty. He worked on transforming the Bolivian economy, which is why I used them as an example, and did such a great job that Poland asked him to do the same in Poland. He discusses the similarities but also the cultural differences that made a enormous effect on the economy. Your list of America's faults are fed propaganda. Not to mention they could be said about almost every country. Unemployment is low, job security is growing as we have already lost the jobs we were meant to lose. Workplace violence...... weird, that happens everywhere in small amounts. High crime rate, actually no its been falling for 30 years. They did a poll on our homeless population and turned out 100 percent of them had drug problems and 95 percent of them had mental illness. More than 75 percent were deemed unable to work. Because they are drug addicts, they refuse systematic help as it only comes with being sober. The Truth is, America has great income mobility. T
True, Russia is playing this game very well but it is fun to watch Putin's face whenever trumps name is mentioned, Enigmatic? The image makes Mona Lisa look like a laughing clown!
feel so sad that things are getting worse. First Hongkong Roits then CV-19. Somebody is building a stage for this WWIII as a drama in the theater of earth.
Imagine all the people, you may say I am a dreamer but I am not the only one. Living life in peace, you may say I am a dreamer but I am not the only one. Maybe some day you'll join us and the world will live as "ONE'.......John Lennon.......LOVE, PEACE, SANITISATION and the 6 win solution, "Thucydides Trap'.
those who control EurAsia control the World - john halford mackinder So it's ImperaTivE that no Eurasian challenger emerges capable of dominating Eurasia and thus of also challenging America - Zbignew Brzezinski
Do you know what a DEMO is? Ask a software developer to explain it for you. Democracy does not work for 49% of the people. So get that point clear in your head.
As an USAmerican, my (arguably) ignorant and naive view is simply this: communism, socialism and single party totalitarianism are evil, and irredeemably so. The American empire(?) has perpetrated much evil as well. No nations' hands are clean. However, the American Ideal is fundamentally good, even though we rarely live up to the ideal, and we have been getting worse over time, in many areas, especially in foreign relations. We feel guilty and are constantly battling our own "demons" and suffer consequences and pains of guilt for our collective "sins", and we should. BUT with socialist/communist single party totalitarianism, even the simple self awareness of their own (collective) sins, and more than that, the awareness of why someone like me sees their form of governance as fundamentally evil seems to be totally lost. Thus my assertion that such a system of government is "irredeemably evil". It is looked at as just a difference of opinion regarding the best way to govern a people. "You have your way, while we have ours." as though there is some moral equivalency. Even their ideal, if there is one, is repugnant to the likes of me. This core difference in moral view point is not something any pragmatism can overcome.
I was taught to think the same way until I witnessed that bridge being built in only 42 hours. And also saw the chart of #1's in the world. Now I think their on to something. Believe it or not early America was the same way in many respects we just had the pleasure of the deep blue to hender anyone from seriously threatening us back then. I'm not saying capitalism was bad god only knows we see the benefits of free will inspired by money. But maybe that's the whole damn problem. Remember there will come a day when humans will face the fact that there will be no more resources. Shouldn't that be the main concern? Or maybe it is the only concern for the ones that have the power to control. That's why, maybe, the world is divided the way it is because it's all part of the plan. And most of us sheepeople just cant see it. I mean how can we. There is no global golden rule in effect.
This is a dumb conversation. The trap is "hubris" which is another important concept from antiquity. If you change the players, you change the game. USA must change itself. China must change itself. If neither change, then the cards are already stacked. Enjoy the show.
So maybe we should adapt the Chinese model...... Cut minimum wages be 1/3 or more, abolish overtime pay and obligate people to work 996. Go on a massive borrowing campaign to subsidies businesses (export for free or nearly free, subsided electricity to the point of ridiculously low, in some cases free or very little rent for businesses) and remove almost all environmental protection. Holy wow.... we have double diget growth almost over night. One problem.... its not sustainable! Maybe it is today or tomorrow but eventually it isnt. If all countries followed the Chinese model it would be a zero sum victory. Tell me I am wrong here but I have been in Asia and China for years and I watch this stuff daily first hand.
Two countries having McDonalds? We despise the junk. Prof. Allison is such an archaic academia without much sense of humour. If such guys are to advise the presidents, the US will be looking for trouble if there isn't one and solve the problem militarily first, if that doesn't work, live together with the problem.
These discussions here are most interesting but they never react to the one most unstable feature. Donald Trump. No one here wants to call him out as the mad man he is. Once this is done it makes these discussions impossible to predict.
Are any of these figures for China, equated to the miserly wages of the real power of 'this Chinese Powerhouse Economy'? If and unless this is correctly done, I think Chinese wealth is not really a fraction of USA, Europe or Russia. If all Western Countries' having this luxury of being able to be situated as the Quasi Capitalist Society, but being enabled to work within the World IMF Trading System, indeed what wonders could be performed economically, socially and geographically. There are approximately 5.75 Yuan to USD, for a good reason, not just because China deigns it to be so, but because the USA economy is far greater than China. Please stop portraying misleading ideological arguments. It is like a gambler being given a licence to cheat, while the house 'does not see' the sleight of hand, going on.
No way .both superpowers die in a the same extreme blood river in order to lay peace to the rest globe to enjoy life.why they have to fight.how about co existence.
US helps other countries by sending out army and bombs . China helps other countries by sending out engineers and workers on roads construction and infrastructure projects.
barrych mak ....Nope you Propaganda Panda 🐼. USA brought every nation on Earth the most prosperous and peaceful times this world has ever seen. China is raping nations and stealing their land in Fiji Vanuatu Australia Philippines South Sea Vietnam Cambodia Laos Malaysia Burma Sri Lanka Bangladesh India Montenegro Dijibouti Kenya Algeria half of Africa Jamaica Venezuela Nicaragua....
I love all the talking heads who think they know everything the President of the United States is thinking. They really should stick to IT and let Trump run the country. Then they won't look like such turkeys when all is said and done.
TRUMP does not run the country. (beint the Corporation of the UNITED STATES of AMERICA. He is merely the President of the CORPORATION and answers to the Board of Directors and Stake Holders. ( This is the Shadow Government which remains the same no matter which puppet sits in the Presidents Chair.) TRUMP merely follows orders of the Board of Directors and Stake-holders.
I love how the CCP apologist brings up Somalia pirates about it's military buildup. Please tell me what Carrier killer or Guam killer missiles have to do with pirates?
China wins because they have the market. What the US wants is entre into China's markets. China is pivoting to provide for their own markets. It doesn't matter was the exchanges are - US companies make more in the Chinese market than the Chinese make in the US market. Far more. At least one US based car company would fold if its only market was the US. Our market is shrinking for everything except products for the elderly and infirm. It is the same in China, however they still have 3 times the market and need to more services. The Chinese will not allow being forced to take foreign goods like after the Opium Wars.
That's completely false. The Chinese internal markets are still tiny compared to the US, despite all the debt being accrued during the last 5 years or so.
@@eltonjohn729 Such nonsense. The mental glass bowl of American exceptionalism will be broken soon enough. Alternative monetary systems to the US SWIFT are being put in place. Once cemented, they will be an alternative to the domineering US dollar and its vicious demands. Take heart - a multi-polar could keep us from failing headlong into what could become WWIII. For the US, however, it could give an avenue for other countries to sanction us the way we've been treating them. I don't think we're going to like that.
Over 80% of Chinese has a positive outlook of the future, while less than 40% of Americans shares that view. What does China need from our “contrarianism”?
Yes, Yes, put women in charge. See your hegemony be destroyed and then see your economy be destroyed. And then you will probably remember the true essence of struggle in life.
Also, I am always confused why the international conference are hold by those grey hair old and azhalmer guys talking and discussing our global problems, actually our young people from different cultures are so friendly to each other. no much about political conflicts , always common wealth thinking. jesus,. the most global annoying people are the people born during 40th, 50th, 60th, experienced alot of wars, hot or cold wars. and become psychos.
@@IAMCorung what is YT sir? And I am not any agent. I also hate agents. cheat money from customers. I represent myself. But I see you as a stubborn scholar or who did univesity during my grandpa s generation. have different views of 3. so........generation gap makes us parallel. one will be continuing, one is perishing.
Fear of the kind Thucydides refers to is rooted in self-doubt not the threat of a rising competitor. As an example, if Brazil (with its large population and abundant natural resources) aspired to world dominance in every field on Allison's list, the United States would not be afraid: there is no threat because there is no doubt that Brazil would fail. China, however, is astonishingly industrious: it can lay a bridge in under an hour. We can't. Our fear, like Sparta's and England's, is rooted in self-doubt. The doubt is real and substantive. The threat imposed by a rising power is not a "trap" for the existing power as Allison loves to repeat (like a two-year who has found a new word he likes and that others like as well.) History confirms that the threat is not a trap for it is not inevitable. The threat is, however, a challenge - one that requires overcoming self-doubt with resolve and work. Alas, the fear that is rooted in self doubt is nothing but a tendency that accrues to the powerful when they become lazy and indentured to old glories that they did not earn but only inherited and then wasted. When the wind stops blowing, row.
Perhaps I should take the current in the rising tide of women, or lose my fortune. (Shakespeare)
The only thing I want to say about a China-US war is, that neither side could afford it, not even afford winning it.
@@umrlih You might be missing something. 7.5 billion people. Over 3 billion eat meat. The majority of the wealth is concentrated in a small %. Robotics. The displacement of workers. Arms buildup. History. How many did USA kill in the Indian/ American Wars? How many did China kill w Mao? IMO, "they", the .001%, are going to eradicate everyone and only billionaires and some doctors, scientists and a bunch of robots will remain.
Get Ready. War is coming!
Those bridges they put up in an hour, are the same bridges they put everywhere. Ever see some of their sky lines, the same buildings built over and over and over again. Not complaining, its a good idea.
The term trap denote a confined space with two powerful individuals
This is a different sort of discussion compared to others I have seen on this topic. Brilliant!
Your comment kept me tuned in, and I am glad I did. Thank you.
It is very entertaining, indeed. But far from anything insightful. I can point out immediately several serious - as they are fundamental - flawed assumptions:
1. That China's rise is organic. I contend it's anything but - based on theft, coercion and fascism. China's technological progress is like blonde dyed brunette: artifical.
2. That US is like any other country in history. It is not - American Exceptionalism is truly one-of-a-kind. I freely admit this is the unique construction never seen before, and it changed history of everything forever. And I'm no American.
3. That China is interested in first place. It is not. It is aiming at complete hegemony. And it is in unique position to obtain that by military - although most definitely not by conventional - means. Basically any country today is.
4. China is becoming largest prison in the world. It will be impossible to keep together without common goal - in stark contrast to USA - which HISTORICALLY (panelists seem to worship that word) - was war.
5. Chinese economy is dependent on export. This country cannot sustain itself with economical structure like this. If something will trigger global financial crisis, China is gone within a year. And I will immediately counter the counter-argument (that China has depth to endure trade war) - with this: how economy based on export can endure cutting off it's biggest sale market?
6. For old wise men they seem to be blinded by the history of China. It is impressive, indeed, but China did not obtain its position today using it's old method. It copied USA. How that is not an argument in this discussion is beyond me. Saying Chinese way is better because it's tradition is BS.
Grateful for the opportunity to listen & learn.
WE NEED NO MORE WARS ???
no nuclear ....
And no more ignorant selfish presidents .!!!!¡
That’s never going to happen
To thin out the populations? A couple of billion would do
He really tried hard to get everyone to say Thucydides..
In Canada a overpass on a major highway was replaced the same way as in china, it took 48 hours as well. This is just a method that can be done with newer bridges. Plus an overpass is a lot different as far as engineering challenges compared to renovated an ancient bridge over a river which was made with techniques that have few skilled people experienced in. A stone bridge is way more labor intensive. In fact they aren't even the same job. One is a renovation of a historical bridge another is a direct replacement of a concrete bridge assembled out of modular pieces onsite.
This i believe is part of the Chinese propaganda to get westerners to think they have a superior system. Overpass replacements on major highways are always done like this all over the world.
It may take longer to go ahead with the building granted but at the same time in our system we can't have Mao tell everyone to kill some bird because it eats the crops, leading to a famine because later it was realized it dint eat crops it ate insects. Centralized power allows for people to make huge mistakes without anyone able to stop them.
Herodotus was the father and founder of the social science of history, not Thucidydes
Sokoloff remarks are painfully inaccurate. He has no clue about EMP or AI and his knowledge of other subjects he talks about is barely PowerPoint deep
A little knowledge is a dangerous thing.
@@eltonjohn729 And your 'little knowledge' apparently lies in socio-economic policy.
For the viewers at home .>>> Allison coined the phrase Thucydides Trap to refer to when a rising power causes fear in an established power which escalates toward war. Thucydideswrote: "What made war inevitable was the growth of Athenian power and the fear which this caused in Sparta."
India and China have been neighbours for 3000 years without fighting a war with each other ( except a border war in 1962 this also had a British Legacy) and can easily resolve their border dispute and form a NATO like defence alliance under BRICS. It is reasonable to accept Russia loving and joining such a defence pact.
Pardeep Tandon,
Your "defence pact" implies that the US might invade India, China and Russia. Certainly you did not imply Japan or somebody else.
That is a interesting thought.
Pardeep Tandon My Indian friend dont swallow Tibet. For thousands of years there were no borders between China and India. You are quite ignorent of history in your subcontinent. After 1949 when the Chinese communist came to power Tibet was annexed. Tell me what history do you have for 3000 years nothing. After Tibet was controlled by china they became your new neighbour and than you had 1962 war. Recently you had Doklam problem. Now you spend millions of dollars to keep the borders save from china from Ladhak to north east of India 4000kms. Before 1949 the border between Tibet and India there wasnt a single sepoy or police. We trade with India and visit Buddhist pilgrimage sites in India and visaverse visit Hindu pilgrimage to Mount Kailash and Mansorova in Tibet. I believe that it is in the best interest of India to join the USA.
Himalayas is one Wall that will not be breached in any meaningful way!
@@Bhoetuk Well, As far as I know the Indian capital city does not have pagoda housing Tibetan scrolls of religious text, the indian capital city does not have palaces built for either Dalai Lama nor Panchen Lama. The territorial dispute between India and Tibet relatively small, mostly just Tawang Arunachel Pradesh and Ladak and Aksai Chin. The territorial dispute between China and Tibet relatively huge, concening the entire ando tibet and kham tibet. And I don't get why any tibetan wanna call Gang Rinpoche and Mapam Yumtso by any other names. If the Manchus never defeated Zuungars when they occupied lahsa, if they didn't push back Sikh empire, if the Chinese never retaliated against Nepal after they wiped the entire Tibetan army. Yeah, I think in that scenario, it would be a lot easier for tibet to get its independence. Oh, and if the then independant Tibet under 13th Dalai didn't invade Ando Tibet under the control of Chinese Muslims.
If 500 men are placed in a room and asked to solve a common task? The men will quickly gravitate towards one leader, who will in turn skillfully designate and appropriate the skills hje sees in the men he has at his command, and the task will be accomplished, materials and money being the only variables to how fast. If 500 women are placed in a room and given a common task, they will quickly gravitate into small groups of three, and gossip forever about the haircuts, jewelry, and clothes the other women are wearing. Nothing will get done. Very quickly, the novelty will wear off, and the funds and materials will dry up, nobody wants to pay women to stand around, do nothing and gossip, not in a store, and not in Congress.
This discussion is all over the place covering topics from climate change to sky net AI. I was looking for specific discourse on the political dynamic between rising power and existing power.
This conversation almost completely ignores the cost/risk benefit analysis with respect to time for a war between China and the US.
At the current time assuming there's no nuclear escalation the US has little to gain from a war with China and while the cost of men, material, and political capital is not huge it still significantly out weighs the benefit. China on the other hand has a significant benefit of gaining dominance over all of east Asia. However China risks the complete ruin of their national economy and collapse of off their political system and possibly the loss of resource rich western provinces. As time passes the risk/cost benefit analysis stays relatively static for the United States but could significantly change for China. While their benefit remains unchanged the cost diminishes as they're economy diversifies and their political system becomes less dependent on a growing economy.
Hence the likelihood for war is minimal for 15 to 20 years but greatly increases in the years following.
Simple conclusion to the above subject; unless the strategic planners in Beijing and Washington DC became like the idiot Donald Trump; this 2 nations will not go to war.
Come on people, you think that Russia and the other nuclear-armed States will just stand idly by and allow anyone to blow this planet up ?
All men are brothers. Only westerner treat others badly looking from history.
cleverinsane trump,
Maybe you looked at only the bad things the West had done. Did the West do anything good, specifically good to China, such as Westernization 西化? Did China benefit from 西化? As a matter of fact all the world has benefitted by 西化?
This is not true! You are ignorant of history. The west just did it better. It is time for humanity to look at the mistakes of history and work together to avoid the crime of war. No human being has the right to take another's life unless In defense of life.
"Only westerner treat others badly looking from history." Then you haven't heard about the rape of Nanjing or the cultural revolution.
The long term solution here is "International," rather than either a China-centric or USA-centric scenario.
There is no solution. Strife will be a constant as long as humanity exists.
The US is the hegemonic power and will still be for decades to come. China's economy is grossly overstated by Chinese data. It will struggle to improve their current standards.
You mean europe?! >< Lets let a continent of welfare countries who suck off the US lead world economics!
@@eltonjohn729 you should wake up. US is on a downward and slippery slope to self-destruct. United States ? For how long ?
I love to see how American prove those "scholars" wrong all the times
Indeed.
Yea well, just when you think these smart guys are pointing to the right direction, some politician just jumps out and be a jackass.
War is coming from 2 or more governments, countries, continents...planet.....but never from 2 persons, people, groups...race....but only conflict.
Great comment!!!
The next world war is nuclear war.
Kiril Sokoloff seems uninformed about technology, and delusional about politics. But Graham Allison's comments are interesting and thoughtful.
holy shit you're not wrong, every time he opens his mouth it's awful
i am glad for China rise! best wishes from E.U!!!
China is communist-capital country and I don't mind!not all countries want the USA democracy!its jus morally don't fit in China policy
You just like the organ stealing baby killing and that their people have no rights. And that the rich in there country are in charge of everything. You must be a pig
Janis how will China Rise???? What is an Economy ?:) Goods and Services produced and Consumed !!! China is in a demographic Death Spiral,fewer and fewer consumers/students/soldiers/taxpayers/factory workers ....How will it Rise??? America in 2018 has more Millennials than Boomers,the only major economy that has that situation..China is dying ,just like Europe...Why ??Because thats what the Math Says!!!
I am Chinese, you are a fool, you must never tortured by Hitler or Stalin.
@@funkiam9214 wait until you live in China,
The major problem is unequal opportunities. If youre not a member of the communist party? good luck!!
If Jack Ma was not a member of the communist party he would have been nobody!
Pls dont BS, there are tons of opportunities in China, give it a year!
Cognitive Science (Cog-Sci) shows the link between Massed-Human-Thinking, versus Governance.
Every serious student of management know this. Social Psychology has its roots in Cognitive Science.
Cog-Sci is a greatly neglected but very much needed Science. Perhaps I'm the only person in Australia (A.C.T.) showing the needed urgency to this problem.
Xi Jinping is the president of the 21st century I selute him
I live in Melbourne and understand that the battle is about over coming cogniative bias and denial that is deeply rooted in this country
Actually there are so many examptions in other civilizations in the history for the Thucydides Trap. Why can't US accepted other country's legemate rights for their own development, for improving living standard of their own people, for the pursuit of life happiness? Come on! This is 21th century now, different civilazations should and must live peaceful with each other instead of the situation that one's wining based on the other's lose. That's the right way
Are you really telling me that the US doesn't accept England right for their own development and improving standards and for their own people to peruse happiness???
No, you don't mean England. Chances are you don't mean 99 percent of countries out there would fit in that description but it just sounds SO MUCH better if it the USA felt that way about every country, and not a communism collectivist government.
So why can't you admit it has nothing to do with 'other countries' and instead just one.
@@meganh9460 Well，actually US always try to defeat any so called challenger in the past 80 years, including USSR, Japan and now Russia and China. No matter was the USSR or Japan, US tried all its efforts to demonize these two countries first before the so called war through the media, economically and ideologically. Quite same as what happens nowadays! Are these demonized factors true? So many people, having not been to China mainland before, believe in which these western media reported undoubtfully, picture China as a evil country, a country with no human rights, people with no freedom. I have to say the real China is absolutely not the western media pictured in the screen before western ordinary people. Only live in China for some time, you would know what the real ordinary Chinese are, what the Chinese government is, what is the CCP, what the advantages and disadvantages of one party system. Learning from different perspectives can help you get a profound understanding.
America stops all Trade with China........China is over!
An excellent discussion and worth the time to watch the entire video if you are serious about learning more about the China-USA rivalry. Even the Q&A at the end was high quality. I think the professor is giving the Trump administration too much credit for strategically analyzing this rivalry.
There were no nuclear bomb, then, professor Allison.
The first nuclear bomb was detonated July 16, 1945--two days before my older sister was born.
The real problem is the westernism : the mindset that says that the western worldview is the only valid one and that western imperialism should be the only song book for the rest of humanity. The conquest and colonialism of Africa, South America and Asia have so impregnated the western mind that we, in the West, are incapable of thinking out of that box. So even our so-called “objectivity” is biased.
16:30, Three things I would like to add to what was said. In the first quarter of 2018, China for the first time surpassed the US in total box office revenue , 3.17 billion compared to 2.85 billion in North America. China top grossing film in 2017 was the 'Wolf Warrior'. The yuan has since depreciated dramatically , so the US likely will end 2018 higher than China (in box office revenue).
China also has surpassed the US in book production havw 470,000 new titles compared to 339,000 in the US (don't know the date this occurred.
In 2015, it surpassed the US in built wealth asset which is the total value of building and infrastructure contributing to economic productivity. The US infrastructure valued at 36.8 trillion US dollars in 2015 compared to 47.6 trillion in China.
Only because our government sold us out and that china steals intellectual property. If our government had the balls to stop ALL imports from china, china would fade back to obsecurity. Americans are sick and tired of being force fed made in china garbage.
Fascinating discussion.
From a woman: sokoloff is very wrong in regards to women.
Regarding Russia: it's important to realize that the federal budget of Russia is smaller than the budget of the state of California (and also smaller than the budget of Japan). Now China is four times the size of USA (demographically), and USA is over twice as large as Russia (which means that China is almost 10 times as large as Russia). Eventually the per capita GDP values will catch up, with global parity in that sense, and China will be exponentially more powerful than USA, and Russia will be far below either of them. China's "deference" to Russia, now, is little more than recognition that Russia is its immediate neighbor across its northern border (Russia has a very large back yard, called Siberia). China has zero fear of Russia - rather, Russia has the capacity to be, perhaps, a nuisance factor to China (if those two should ever find themselves going head-to-head). When Putin and Xi Jinping are together in the same photo, it is Putin who is deferent and respectful and even cowering. USA and Russia against China? Very unlikely. China, historically, has little if any interest in military expansion. China as a global threat is minimal; rather, China is more interested in exercising its economic energy and influence - hence Belt and Road, etc., etc.. In terms of China and USA competition, there will be less and less competition as the years go by - China will simply dominate, as a natural occurrence of its size and of its history as a source of ingenuity and inventiveness. USA is also resourceful, but it simply will not be able to keep up with China. Hence, all things considered, what USA should be doing right now is to support and strengthen all of the international institutions and multi-lateral agreements around the world. But instead, USA's current habit of attacking international institutions and favoring unilateral activity, is pure insanity. Trump is a fool, a pure idiot, who believes that USA will remain #1 in technology and economics forever, which is just plain wrong. It is very much in USA's best interests to interact with China (e.g., in Belt and Road, and with the International Space Station, etc., etc.), and to help the UN become the arbiter of international rules and norms. Only with strong international institutions will it be possible to keep China at the table, so to speak. Otherwise China will establish its own rules, however it wishes.
This so-called "Thucydides Trap" could be genuine, but USA needs to generate some historical perspective and realize that it must now play the long game and begin focusing on international institutions rather than only on USA. The tension and ultimate conflict suggested by Thucydides is of course possible, but not inevitable. USA needs to wake up and wise up.
China will have much older demographics before their actual economic power gets close to the US, which it isn't despite the powerpoints shown here.
China is and will be important, but it's not a comparable power to the US and it's not clear whether it will be in the foreseeable future.
China is only innovative is their ways of stealing.
I liked the thought, US should learn to live with the rising power from the east which is china, we have a very strong example in the past soon after the world war-II when the then declining superpower, the UK, just synched with the USA and got benefited out of the power of the then-emerging power USA soon after world war-II, British was more prudent and realistic in the changing global power game.
The host is too active to let speech flow smoothly.
The three of them are clueless anyway. They are a great example of how being highly certified doesn't mean you are highly clued.
Hopefully the respective administrations of the US and China know much better. Both countries have impending economic crises coming.
In short, attraction, is key, to escape Thucydides Trap.
Explanation: to escape Thucydides Trap, we need to look at the framework of democracy. In here, at the very core of the democratic value system, we find the value of equality.
By strengthening this specific value, within our own society, to a level where people in our society, once again, will start to believe in the system, and moreover in them selfs too, we also start to attract people from China. They will want the same type of valua system too.
The METOO movement is a potential starting point, to strengthen the core Democratic value of equality. Until this process has been completed, and in terms of foreign policy, each actor (the West and China) has to keep each other in check.
But domestically speaking, democracy must be strengthened to its absolute peak.
**
Military conflict, tradewar, sanctions, and so forth, will only activate the trap.
The real GDP growth of China is perhaps 4% at most.
This alligator is friendly, it just wants to grow up nice and big and become many pairs of shoes..here take this raw hamburger and hand feed it. It's how we escape dated Greek historical ramblings...
This is just another example of "the smartest people in the room" being completely clueless and confused. I admit it was entertaining and a good laugh.
This is for smart people only. And I am Polish American. Polish People are very smart and nationalistic.
lmao
I think that the world is big enough for more than one super power. Americas rise to power was unique and relatively recent in modern history. It is a fact that more than 90% of Americas existence it has been involved in wars or military actions. I believe that the access of information is a major positive factor in hopefully balancing these percent's by future major periods of true global peace. The industrial military complex of this country is in my opinion a crime against humanity. My generation has access to facts and data that my ancestors did not. In a short period of time I predict that enough people in my country will be wise enough to not fall for these false reasons on why we should go to war. The people will truly eventually understand how war only benefits the wealthy and elite by manipulating the opinions of the weak and distracted. In ancient times there existed super powers, granted they did not have the destructive weapons of the modern era but they shared a common belief in that war between them was not beneficial. The evils of war are known to all modern countries yet we still allow it to occur. I believe it is up to the major powers of the world specifically India Russia China USA and a few others to keep global peace and help each other develop technology in a fair way that allows friendly competition and doesn't motivate the great powers to undercut and attempt to supplant the others progress . I know this sounds hypocritical as an American given the behavior of my country in the last few decades but I am only one man. A young man who looks at his elders with respect but understands the mistakes they have made due to a lack of perspective. I believe the world is big enough for all nations to prosper. With the daunting reality of just how small the earth is and how big the universe it is a part of, maybe this in time will be enough to put our differences hatred and misunderstandings in proper perspective and we will realize as the human race just how much we can benefit from changing our own primitive tribal ways. (p.s. my grammar is terrible I know but please try and understand the point and stay positive) =)
Its not hypocritical, just a bit naive. The global game is played by too many players for any group to be able to stop it, and it has never stopped. You always get a new supply of players who want their turn at playing the game. You have the global game, the regional game, the local game, the financial game etc etc etc. Lets say I get lucky and convince the 5 major powers to all stop playing the game, at least against each other, this won't stop individuals who believe themselves to be patriots fighting for their countries interests. That will spark problems but the real problem is that it becomes too beneficial in the short term to lie and continue playing the game from the shadows.
I always thought space could be our way out of that game. I have pushed for an idea that any human that leaves Earth for more than 5 years can no longer be under any one government but a member of Earth as a whole. I am hoping we can make it to space before we destroy ourselves, then prevent wars from continuing in space as I don't think we have a hope for it down here.
There is also some truth in USA being the world policeman. Its a deterrence. The last 4 major wars that America didn't start, the aggressor was told specifically that America would not get involved. This has back fired tho as Americans are starting to understand the long standing hatred in some parts of the country that don't fade quickly. Once America falls back, they will be forgotten as enemies as 50 years is a very short amount of time with nations that have survived for thousands of years.
Never heard more interesting points in one UA-cam video.
What about China running a oil pipeline and a road from GAWADAR port ( CEPEC) and by train from Iran or increase the import of oil from Russia?
Trumps cost to have Russia onside would be to get out of NATO and let the EU run it (down of course)
Two fight each other will benefit 3rd party
Can the 3rd party immune from nuclear fall out The agent orange affected some us troops there
China, historically, was the geatest innovator and explorer and discoverer full of entrepreneurial talent and energy. Joseph Needham has an entire bookshelf of studies that he developed regarding a historical record of China's history of innovations over the many years and centuries when China was healthy and powerful.
BTW: when the noun "Cambridge" appears by itself, without any qualifiers, in a sentence or in conversation (and that sentence or conversation occurs anywhere other than in Boston, Massachusetts), then the reference is to a University and its University Town north east of London in the UK. When that term is meant to refer to the twon on the other side of the Charles River from Boston, Massachusetts, where Harvard and MIT are also located, then the term that is used is "Cambridge, Massachusetts." The ONLY time when the single noun Cambridge refers to the the town near Boston in Massachusetts is when that term is used in the vicinity of Boston, Massachusetts.
Remember, the guys at the top
Will all be safe in their shelters.
Can someone show this program to LeBron, Steve Kerr, ect.. Just so that they can know what is going on over there, because they want equal rights for blacks but the hell with Hong Kong 🤔
Re: "John Peter 2" Below:
Peaceful world?? You haven't any education apparently. It takes decades of reading and travel to learn about cultures. THAT is why young people do not have the capacity ANYWHERE (thank god the Chinese culture respects their elders generally, and much better than the western cultures) to make national or global decisions.
"John Peter", it would be better if you just spent your time reading instead of blah, blah, blahing about most things that you are uneducated about. However, from long experience, with 1 general exception, your comment about how young people DO NOT have enmity against each other internationally is True ON an INDIVIDUAL BASIS, (NOT a GROUP BASIS, as there are many constant examples of youth violence worldwide, continuously.), which is a GOOD(!).
(notice that I'm trying to be objective and kind with you?--try to extend that to others, as it makes a more "peaceful world". That would be a much better method.)
I spend my time helping the disadvantaged people that I meet anywhere, daily. That takes discipline and selflessness to be focused on "good". I encourage that, as it has the greatest impact, vs. complaining and criticizing any other age group. The 1 exception that I have seen is the serious threat that Islam imposes on the world by it's every age group, and mostly the Young ones who are basically indoctrinated by these madrassas to dominate, imperialistically, everything that is not it's brand of violent islam. With that said, It would be great if most islamics practiced Sufism, which is by far the most non-violent version of Islam.
Read an "A God Who Hates" by Wafa Sultan, a Syrian MD, and Psychiatrist. I will post a free link for the pdf, if you will read, so let me know. I don't have any attitude with you, "JP". It is a fascinating picture of Islamic society and the destructive, horrible nature of it with constant female suicides, pedophilia, and many perverse features. It's not wondering the level of violence coming from it.
Also, Tibet was a free and independent nation until the CHINESE Imperialistic Communists overthrew the quiet kingdom with force and importing millions of Han to out-breed the Tibetians from existence. If you like, I can forward a video documentary from a Tibetian man who went in 'undercover' and videoed all of what I refer to. They are enforcing mass sterilization of Tibetian women unless they become communist. It is genocide, as the communists have always done.
So much for the peaceful communist GOVERNMENT. That is not the "peaceful" Chinese picture that you present. It's the communists I despise, not the Chinese, who have a marvelous, continuous culture and people. I have had many Chinese live with me, who I think are some of the best people I have known, and of ALL ages.
Communists, anywhere, are the other violent source of war, besides violent Islam continuous danger to peace in the world, besides many in the US government who have imperialistic, 1 -world globalist goals. It's interesting that until the communists came to power, that Tibet was free. Also, the (Truly peaceful) Vietnamese have fought 2 modern wars against Chinese communists, defeating them both times. They also, in their distant past have fought wars with China. There are 3 Continuous actors globally for war, Communists (which includes the Chinese/Russian Gov's.), the US, and the violent Islamics. How can you miss all of that "John Peter"? It's on Every News channel, Globally, Daily.
It's just a suggestion. Patience is learned with age only. I hope you learn and enjoy that. Be Kind to ALL others.
PLS LOOK AT THE MAP OF CHINA AND TIBET AND STUDY IT CAREFULLY.
CHINA CANNOT ALLOW TIBET TO BE LIKE ISRAEL IN THE MIDDLE EAST BCOS TIBET IS PRO AMERICAN.
@@ongtengong6823 All 4 of the satellite states in China would love to be out from under this leadership.
@@ongtengong6823 so is anyone who wants to be free
Americans are anti war. Unfortunately our government is not and has not been an "American" government for quite sometime. Our government is under total control by z ionist!
Communists followers do not have a monopoly - as far as being a Violent Source of War.
Humans butcher each other EVERYWHERE.
You, however only highlighted Tibet as an example to prove your point that China's Communists are land invaders, committing genocide, forced sterilization, etc, etc. The Americans wiped out the American Indians; is that not genocide ?
On the subject of Tibet, if China had not taken over that place (whether they invade or not can be debated endlessly), I will bet that Tibet would have been an opportunity for the US to foist a war between India and China.
You also highlighted Islam and ONLY added a sentence saying 'many in the US Government' as a continuous Danger to world peace.
Your China-bashing, Communist-bashing Islamic-bashing is so typical of idiots growing up in ignorance and you have the cheek to advocate "Patience" ?
Fuck you, you hypocrite !
Haven't heard a word about China's wasted coastline polluted water coral reefs diisappearing. Maybe that is Korea Japan. I have heard the USA is building more military bases in the area.
Did thucydides create the light of day?
Not doubt the speakers are very accomplished and intelligent people! Although the tone of the conversation is very moderate and even congenial compared with those who are hostile to China and there are a lot of good take-aways for the audience. However, I believe some of the messages that they are sending out are not good for the world. For example, nobody should be against anybody anymore! The world should be multi-lateral, and world democracy should be promoted instead of the "enemy & allies" "destroy" "fighting" "dominance" "power" "carrots and sticks", the "heroic and patriotic" regime-change wars, cultural supremacy, white supremacy, and all those connotations that come with the "good American system" you are so proud of. Countries should be equal partners coexisting and cooperating for a peaceful and prosperous world, with each having their own strengths and witnesses and trading fairly. Forget about the death trap of power struggle! Stop using such terms as evil ideology and enemies to demonize the system that is different from yours. As much as you will never want to admit, the Chinese system has been good for the people in general in a lot of ways! Using those labels incite prejudice and discrimination for China and the Chinese immigrants around the world. Be aware of the consequences of your words! The American system does not work very well at all. Look at all the inequality, injustices, wastefulness, poverty, social friction and isolation, workplace violence, job insecurity, unemployment, high crime rate, mental illness, stress level, and the ineffectiveness of the government!
Living in the ivory tower of Harvard with your summer home, investments, and your retirement package, you do not see the hardship that derived from the structural defects of your beloved economic, political and social system that are plaguing more than half of the American population. You don't see the inhumane condition of the homeless. You don't feel the pain of a man paying 1/3 of his income as health insurance and still get a big bill for an emergency hospital run, almost half of the income as rent, and with the rest spreading thinly on other necessities like cell phone, food, and everything else. You don't know what it is like when the low income earners' wage never goes up while the prices of goods and services are shooting up like rockets. You don't feel the sinking feeling that home-ownership is slipping away or never going to happen as well as the frustrations and helplessness from dealing with the landlord. You don't know the anxiety a person feels when he or she does not have personal security due to poor housing or no housing. You don't feel the workplace problems such as bullying, discrimination, overly competitive or insecure coworker, job insecurity, harsh or unfair boss, etc. You don't understand the anguish of the unemployed. The list goes on and on for people living at the bottom of the economic ladder, most of whom will never be able to get out of it even if they work themselves to death. Just because the system works for you does not mean it is a good system. Stop lying to yourself, the poor and the disadvantaged about the merits of the system, please! The sooner the lies stop, the sooner the process will begin to find better solutions! This is nothing personal, and I fully respect you as a person and an accomplished scholar!
You cannot have a Chinese system, for Bolivians or an American system for Bolivians. Americans live on some of the richest land in the world, that kind of advantage is not replicated everywhere. This is why Greece and Italy are falling, trying to have the same economic rules and system as the richer norther Nations. Chinese are already talking about spreading 'Socialism with Chinese characteristics.' Did they learn nothing from watching America spread democracy and individualism?
There is a great book on my toilet right now called the end of poverty. He worked on transforming the Bolivian economy, which is why I used them as an example, and did such a great job that Poland asked him to do the same in Poland. He discusses the similarities but also the cultural differences that made a enormous effect on the economy.
Your list of America's faults are fed propaganda. Not to mention they could be said about almost every country. Unemployment is low, job security is growing as we have already lost the jobs we were meant to lose. Workplace violence...... weird, that happens everywhere in small amounts. High crime rate, actually no its been falling for 30 years.
They did a poll on our homeless population and turned out 100 percent of them had drug problems and 95 percent of them had mental illness. More than 75 percent were deemed unable to work. Because they are drug addicts, they refuse systematic help as it only comes with being sober.
The Truth is, America has great income mobility. T
War is still possible after nukes?
This stuff is so relevant now with the coronavirus.
True, Russia is playing this game very well but it is fun to watch Putin's face whenever trumps name is mentioned, Enigmatic? The image makes Mona Lisa look like a laughing clown!
Trump and Putin are working together,.Your desire to see them at odds is making you delusional
feel so sad that things are getting worse. First Hongkong Roits then CV-19. Somebody is building a stage for this WWIII as a drama in the theater of earth.
Imagine all the people, you may say I am a dreamer but I am not the only one. Living life in peace, you may say I am a dreamer but I am not the only one. Maybe some day you'll join us and the world will live as "ONE'.......John Lennon.......LOVE, PEACE, SANITISATION and the 6 win solution, "Thucydides Trap'.
those who control
EurAsia
control the World
-
john halford mackinder
So it's ImperaTivE that no Eurasian challenger emerges capable of dominating Eurasia and thus of also challenging America
-
Zbignew Brzezinski
What about Russia and China forming a NATO like defence alliance under umbrella of BRICS.
SUPER ANALYSIS
And eat the histories of yours. Democracy ! for all...
Do you know what a DEMO is?
Ask a software developer to explain it for you.
Democracy does not work for 49% of the people.
So get that point clear in your head.
Its Dec, '18 and China is falling apart
Where? Its june 2019 already.
Play at 1.5x
For war do you guys means Nuclear
Maybe if Arsemerica can keep to itself and stop starting wars in the world and then blaming another country for it, there will be world peace.
@43mins, wrong! Trump has said illegal immigration...
As an USAmerican, my (arguably) ignorant and naive view is simply this: communism, socialism and single party totalitarianism are evil, and irredeemably so. The American empire(?) has perpetrated much evil as well. No nations' hands are clean. However, the American Ideal is fundamentally good, even though we rarely live up to the ideal, and we have been getting worse over time, in many areas, especially in foreign relations. We feel guilty and are constantly battling our own "demons" and suffer consequences and pains of guilt for our collective "sins", and we should. BUT with socialist/communist single party totalitarianism, even the simple self awareness of their own (collective) sins, and more than that, the awareness of why someone like me sees their form of governance as fundamentally evil seems to be totally lost. Thus my assertion that such a system of government is "irredeemably evil". It is looked at as just a difference of opinion regarding the best way to govern a people. "You have your way, while we have ours." as though there is some moral equivalency. Even their ideal, if there is one, is repugnant to the likes of me. This core difference in moral view point is not something any pragmatism can overcome.
I was taught to think the same way until I witnessed that bridge being built in only 42 hours. And also saw the chart of #1's in the world. Now I think their on to something. Believe it or not early America was the same way in many respects we just had the pleasure of the deep blue to hender anyone from seriously threatening us back then. I'm not saying capitalism was bad god only knows we see the benefits of free will inspired by money. But maybe that's the whole damn problem. Remember there will come a day when humans will face the fact that there will be no more resources. Shouldn't that be the main concern?
Or maybe it is the only concern for the ones that have the power to control. That's why, maybe, the world is divided the way it is because it's all part of the plan. And most of us sheepeople just cant see it. I mean how can we. There is no global golden rule in effect.
China does not value the environment, the one statement ,that they do, leaves many questions about your predictions.
1:30:33
"That's not my problem" lol, this guy already making it difficult to not fall into the trap.
social science.. Freedom of speech, Religion and press or not.
Sure or not
Why can't we all get along? Like in Star Trek. There is no need for $ and we love each other. Can't wait 4 Jesus millennium .
Why is this guy so obsessed with pronouncing 'Thucydides'?
John Ryan same reason everyone watching it is. It’s fun to say if you get it. Relax.
This is a dumb conversation. The trap is "hubris" which is another important concept from antiquity. If you change the players, you change the game. USA must change itself. China must change itself. If neither change, then the cards are already stacked. Enjoy the show.
Thucydides’ Trap = Hubris
So maybe we should adapt the Chinese model...... Cut minimum wages be 1/3 or more, abolish overtime pay and obligate people to work 996. Go on a massive borrowing campaign to subsidies businesses (export for free or nearly free, subsided electricity to the point of ridiculously low, in some cases free or very little rent for businesses) and remove almost all environmental protection. Holy wow.... we have double diget growth almost over night. One problem.... its not sustainable! Maybe it is today or tomorrow but eventually it isnt. If all countries followed the Chinese model it would be a zero sum victory. Tell me I am wrong here but I have been in Asia and China for years and I watch this stuff daily first hand.
SUPER
Fate of Empire, it's a thing.
Two countries having McDonalds? We despise the junk. Prof. Allison is such an archaic academia without much sense of humour. If such guys are to advise the presidents, the US will be looking for trouble if there isn't one and solve the problem militarily first, if that doesn't work, live together with the problem.
Money should be put in Bitcoins
I just love antique political debate. Tippecanoe and Trump too!
These discussions here are most interesting but they never react to the one most unstable feature. Donald Trump. No one here wants to call him out as the mad man he is. Once this is done it makes these discussions impossible to predict.
Brian Cattani 534
Are any of these figures for China, equated to the miserly wages of the real power of 'this Chinese Powerhouse Economy'? If and unless this is correctly done, I think Chinese wealth is not really a fraction of USA, Europe or Russia. If all Western Countries' having this luxury of being able to be situated as the Quasi Capitalist Society, but being enabled to work within the World IMF Trading System, indeed what wonders could be performed economically, socially and geographically. There are approximately 5.75 Yuan to USD, for a good reason, not just because China deigns it to be so, but because the USA economy is far greater than China. Please stop portraying misleading ideological arguments. It is like a gambler being given a licence to cheat, while the house 'does not see' the sleight of hand, going on.
No way .both superpowers die in a the same extreme blood river in order to lay peace to the rest globe to enjoy life.why they have to fight.how about co existence.
Food scarcity in China due to climate change will stop the Chinese juggernaut.
US helps other countries by sending out army and bombs .
China helps other countries by sending out engineers and workers on roads construction and infrastructure projects.
barrych mak ....Nope you Propaganda Panda 🐼. USA brought every nation on Earth the most prosperous and peaceful times this world has ever seen. China is raping nations and stealing their land in Fiji Vanuatu Australia Philippines South Sea Vietnam Cambodia Laos Malaysia Burma Sri Lanka Bangladesh India Montenegro Dijibouti Kenya Algeria half of Africa Jamaica Venezuela Nicaragua....
barrych mak say something intelligent.
I love all the talking heads who think they know everything the President of the United States is thinking. They really should stick to IT and let Trump run the country. Then they won't look like such turkeys when all is said and done.
TRUMP does not run the country. (beint the Corporation of the UNITED STATES of AMERICA.
He is merely the President of the CORPORATION and answers to the Board of Directors and Stake Holders. ( This is the Shadow Government which remains the same no matter which puppet sits in the Presidents Chair.)
TRUMP merely follows orders of the Board of Directors and Stake-holders.
A ponzi scheme, never! Absolutely baseless
I love how the CCP apologist brings up Somalia pirates about it's military buildup. Please tell me what Carrier killer or Guam killer missiles have to do with pirates?
are these old men scammers? do u even have a view?
If you know history then you must understand that China can build a blue fleet navy in no time to rival and even exceed the Americans
With Trump and his cronies, it can't escape from the trap.
The USA cannot strategise who their enemies are - Right now it's getting a lot closer to everyone except the 4 ayes! : Lol
Who needs enemies when you have friends like the 4 ayes..4 ayes no longer holds our values & morals
:O it kiril
China wins because they have the market. What the US wants is entre into China's markets. China is pivoting to provide for their own markets. It doesn't matter was the exchanges are - US companies make more in the Chinese market than the Chinese make in the US market. Far more. At least one US based car company would fold if its only market was the US. Our market is shrinking for everything except products for the elderly and infirm. It is the same in China, however they still have 3 times the market and need to more services. The Chinese will not allow being forced to take foreign goods like after the Opium Wars.
That's completely false. The Chinese internal markets are still tiny compared to the US, despite all the debt being accrued during the last 5 years or so.
@@eltonjohn729 Such nonsense. The mental glass bowl of American exceptionalism will be broken soon enough. Alternative monetary systems to the US SWIFT are being put in place. Once cemented, they will be an alternative to the domineering US dollar and its vicious demands. Take heart - a multi-polar could keep us from failing headlong into what could become WWIII. For the US, however, it could give an avenue for other countries to sanction us the way we've been treating them. I don't think we're going to like that.
@@loanauditscal you are LARPing. Look it up.
shows humans are reputitious .....
Already outdated
He was so wrong. . EU is collapsing and US is pulling ahead again
terrible ideology
it is quite hard to understand the HK guy's English. Frustrating.
Read the transcript
Thuuu..... cydides!
X
humility. harmony. its time to bide our time. china needs our contrarianism. China is the midwest of the world. Not hard. Ps i live in ny
Over 80% of Chinese has a positive outlook of the future, while less than 40% of Americans shares that view. What does China need from our “contrarianism”?
yan yan
Yan, agreed. Read my upper response to "John Peter". I think you might agree. Best wishes!
Yes, Yes, put women in charge. See your hegemony be destroyed and then see your economy be destroyed. And then you will probably remember the true essence of struggle in life.
Also, I am always confused why the international conference are hold by those grey hair old and azhalmer guys talking and discussing our global problems, actually our young people from different cultures are so friendly to each other. no much about political conflicts , always common wealth thinking. jesus,. the most global annoying people are the people born during 40th, 50th, 60th, experienced alot of wars, hot or cold wars. and become psychos.
John Peter you are a Chinese YT agent provocateur aren't you?
@@IAMCorung what is YT sir? And I am not any agent. I also hate agents. cheat money from customers. I represent myself. But I see you as a stubborn scholar or who did univesity during my grandpa s generation. have different views of 3. so........generation gap makes us parallel. one will be continuing, one is perishing.