Brexit: What Happens Now? - Brexit Explained
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- Опубліковано 17 вер 2024
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7 Ways MPs Can Block No Deal: • 7 Ways MPs Can Stop a ...
Proroguation Explained: • Proroguing Parliament ...
A lot of parliamentarians aren't a huge fan of No Deal Brexit. On the whole Members of Parliament think no deal would be bad for the UK, so a lot of them are trying to stop it in its tracks. In this video, we tell you the seven ways that MPs could use to block a no-deal, and rank them based on their likeliness.
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You forgot the option that the UK asks for an extension 31/10, but the EU says: "GO TO HELL! WE ARE DONE!".
Checked out the pins, instantly ordered one. They look fun :)
Are they sold out? I cant find one
TLDR News The best option is to make the EU tired of UK. Johnson should REVOKE article 50, and then invoke it a few months later, all the while boycotting and vetoing every EU initiative
Can you add payment by Paypal and/or Ideal. I don't have a creditcard and I like to buy some pins.
EU: We'll give you an extension, so don't waste your time and make up your mi-
UK: *screams and throws a shopping trolley into the Thames*
@HazardousPleb V How has that comment have anything to do with "projection"?
@HazardousPleb V Dafuq is being projected here exactly? It's a metaphor dude
@HazardousPleb V wake up nostalgia boy, this is the 21st century, not Victorian era, the ruling is american now. And China right behind.
@HazardousPleb V You really think you can revive the British Empire or something via Brexit? You may have forgotten that you don't control your former colonies anymore... and they aren't going to give their lands back. Good luck fighting half the world lol
@HazardousPleb V total thick troll
I'd like a video from a legal perspective on violating the Good Friday agreement
I think you will find there is nothing at all mentioned in the GFA in respect of the Border so not sure it has been violated
The Belfast agreement is more complicated than that, infrastructure on the border is prohibited, it requires a number of cross border initiatives but the main point is identity it allows northern Irish individuals to identify themselves as Irish, British or Both. The Home office is already accused of breaching the identity provision this is being decided in the courts.
Yes!
Yes!
@@Ballbaggins AFAIK there are no legal consequences for doing that as the referendum was non-binding.
As a EUropean, it kinda feels like we're forced to just sit back and wait to find out if we'll suffer the fallout from your little civil war with yourselves. We genuinely love you, sorry it didn't work out, and we'll miss you, but three years is a seriously long time to be unable to figure yourselves out. Your politics seems bananas by the way, just saying.
John Horgan you have no choice but to sit and wait until you’re told what happens, because as a member of the EU you have no real say or control. That is why we are so desperately trying to leave. Trust me, we want this to be over as much as you do
... and bent bananas at that ... Oh Dear!
Yes as someone from the UK I have to agree. Three years is absurd lol.
Man, I've said something similar on another video (not from this channel), and I was told to go fuck myself, and that they want CANZUK and they want it now!
Madness is a scary thing, especially when the mad person can't see his own sickness.
Gandalf
Oh we in the EU would like to make your politicians shut up and do their job, but we don't have the power to do so because you live in a sovereign country and we respect that.
Leaving the EU is just a nationalist tamper tantrum that will fuck both your and our lives over... but hey, at least we don't force your lousy politicians to do shit (like we should do in a normal world).
BTW, you brits already proved that you are incapable of pushing your politicians to do anything anyway and we can't do it for you. Maybe it's time for some political pressure from your side...
My flowchart:
no deal happens ---> economy completely tanks ---> brexiteers still find a way to blame the EU
Tom Langford why would the uk tank?
@@iparz44z because we would lose all our trade deals overnight
Tom Langford what trade deals? American trade deal you mean? Why would we lose the American trade deal overnight? When it won’t officially start until 1 min past midnight on the 1st November.
@@iparz44z no trade deal has been negotiated between the UK and the US. The US have said they're only willing to do one if we sell the NHS to American companies
@@iparz44z he meant deals with the EU. suddenly over night all the UK trade with EU would have tariff and so be more expensive. meaning no EU country is gonna buy from the UK. And the EU is the UK's biggest market. Meaning the UK economy will be very weakened overnight.
Boris: we want to give power back to the people.
Prorogues parliament
The people is me?
He would be giving power to the people by actually implementing what they voted for, not trying to bypass or undermine a clear, legitimate democratic decision
@@MrMilkman1992 it's wasn't quite legitimate, considering the vote leave campaign was found to have breeched the rules. (Don't remember the specifics)
@NPC Knuckles Parliament consists of the people's elected representatives. Making them unable to act in the people's interest is indistinguishable from just burning their ballots and ruling by decree.
The Polish I know what you mean and I can’t remember the details either to be honest, but that was the campaign; let’s not pretend that the vote itself was illegitimate
Best fan theory and plot predictions about the final season of Brexit so far.
Don't you think there will be plenty of spin-offs after it? 😅😂
The manga is way ahead of the anime. :D
Spoiler: it doesnt go well either way.
@@MrRishik123 oh boy the Light Novel goes even deeper and darker 🤣🤣
@@darthcalanil5333 My favourite arc in the light novel was the Pig Penetration v2 arc. The previous arc with cameron created a ton of turmoil and led to some incredible character development. In the second version with (spoilers) Bojo JoJo our mc gets his dark past at oxford brought back.
@@MrRishik123 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
Cheers mate.
I'm actually reading a LN after watching the video 😅
How about a video on a 'No deal Brexit' from the perspective of the EU. How would a no deal Brexit impact France / Germany. Does everyone get hit with reciprocal tariffs? German cars seem popular in the UK. Do they get hit with VAT, plus a tarriff? Will the other member states have to get a visa & show a passport to travel to the UK? I think a video like this is needed to explain the impact of leaving on WTO terms. Thank you for your videos. 😁
No deal means all EU member states have to trade with the UK the same way they trade with e.g. Nigeria, so yes, it would mean VAT. You'd also have to have a visa in your passport to travel there. It pretty much sucks, but oh well, there's other vacation destinations and countries that'll buy German cars and French... baguettes? The impact to the UK would be far greater, and as a German I frankly don't really care what you decide in the end, just DECIDE.
@@QuantumFluxable French veg/fruit I think is a big daily import for the UK. High perishability stuff.
@@QuantumFluxable I am American, but am fascinated by the differences in our governmental systems, but still gridlock in both. I know it's bad to say, but I enjoy the schadenfreude. Anyway, really think they should do this video. Cheers.
"Will the other member states have to get a visa & show a passport to travel to the UK?"
No. After Brexit, no one will want to travel to the UK.
Simple. A no deal exit means a massive recession in Germany followed by the slow and painful death of the EU.
Brexit at this point is like a possessive ex-girlfriend
a v hahah yes
More like the EU is possessive. Refusing to even talk about divorce proceedings to make it more difficult for us to leave!
@@PonzooonTheGreat Because they have been talking (and giving) for the past three years. Now it's just time for the UK to make up its mind and leave.
No, just the remoaners. It's 3 years since we voted to leave and I can assure you we Brexiteers are not happy about the delays you remoaners have forced upon us. That alone is the compromise. We're leaving without a deal now purely out of spite, but also because it was what was voted for back in 2016.
@@PonzooonTheGreat
Because they already had a deal and it was just plain refused.
"No more Brexit to explain?" Oh boy we are just getting started😂
So revoking article 50 is no longer a possibility? Did I miss something?
It's still possible, but if you talk about it publicly you risk being contacted by people who would like to give a spirited demonstration of how the stereotype of Brits as polite people is outdated at best
It is a possibility but only after a general election or second referendum. If article 50 was revoked right now it would basically be the government giving the people the middle finger. The people voted to leave and so any government that effectively shrugs their shoulders and says "f#@k that, we're staying anyway" is dismissing the opinion of the people who are responsible for keeping them in power.
That said, if the government holds a second referendum or election to ask the people a second time, then they could safely revoke article 50 after that point (assuming that remain won). They would lose the support of most hardline brexiteers, but i think that a lot of people have had a chance to rethink their opinion since the original vote. The fallout for the government would still be bad, but not as bad as just revoking article 50 when they have been told by the majority of people to leave.
Revoking is possible until the deadline, but Johnson would never do it.
@@ryanmoss7482 Well governments have been known to ignore what the people told them they want, but it usually isn't on such high profile cases as this
That's literally the nuclear option, assured to cause massive upheaval in the country.
And I'm not even sure, the EU would accept it either. It's the sort of brute force move that makes you deeply unpopular with literally everyone.
And maybe the Queen goes on vacation... and prorogation of the parliament can't happen?
@@Zuluknob Even when she was wearing blue clothes with EU hat?
@@Zuluknob You're mixing things up. She purred when Scotland decided to not be independent.
Funny
Time for her final, global worldwide farewell tour. I think about four months should suffice.
Guys can we get to 300K i'm bored of waiting for this surprise
You just know the "surprise" is gonna be absolutely shite
@Frank oh no imagine wanting to make more money..
Frank OMG, what a greedy bastard. He should just spend all his free time and his hard-earned cash from his “real” job to make all this content. Likes is all one needs to survive anyhow.
@INDIANFUKING ALLTHEWHITEGIRLS original
300k subs arrives... Surprise: to be revealed at 400k subs
Outcome 5: Get another extension, go on vaccation and do the whole thing all over again when the next deadline comes around!
Unfortunately, there's really just one outcome now: No Deal. EU won't renegotiate, a new vote has no political will, no government isn't an outcome it's just a circumstance, and, well.. No Deal. It's No Deal.
Prorogation, then after no deal he calls the general election and continues to wash his hands off of the whole thing and hopes everyone will forget the bus. Simple.
@@Megalomaniakaal Do you really think a large number of undecided voters were swayed to vote based on what was written on the side of a bus?
@@blahdelablah Nah, but some of the claims have been proven to be dodgy at best, I recon he'd be happy for that to be forgotten, is what I'm saying.
That will be the best outcome No deal it's the only way to leave the undemocatic EU organisation.
Once the cartel organisation realises no more money coming in deals will be made after the UK leaves on 31st October
As an American and Anglophile I find your channel extremely helpful to understand what is going on with Brexit. Plus, it is nice to disengage from our political train wreck and watch someone else's political train wreck for a while.
Good luck guys! If Trump is reelected I may be coming over, so please sort this out. 😊
Come to Scotland, we'll be back in the EU shortly.
@@MrGonzonator LOL, thanks! I am very interested to see what Scotland does if/when Brexit happens. I wouldn't blame Scotland for leaving the UK to rejoin the EU. But I suspect that would still be messy.
@@acars9999 I think you will be right.The Conservatives will be very reluctant to give an independence referendum again to Scotland after 2014.I think they will have no choice same with Ulster.If they don't ,the troubles will come to both and no-one sane wants that
Space aliens invading earth and enslaving the human race, rendering brexit moot seems more likely an outcome than any of the actual options ending well lol
What we need is the star trek transporter.
To transport all Politicians to the moon.
And not allowed back until bxt is finalized...
According to Corey Goode, some races are engaging galactic slave trade as we speak, and have trafficked humans for thousands of years. So your point falls a bit moot there...
Maybe global warming will end the world before brexit ending the most sack drama show in this nations entire history
Or you could just stay in the EU. Seems like it would magically solve a lot of problems.
What reasons do you think people had for wanting to leave the EU?
That is totally undemocatic the referendum was to leave that will be undermining Democracy in a Democratic country.
@@blahdelablah MANY.
A deal without an Irish backstop would be equivalent to the EU and Britain pushing Ireland under the bus and back to the seventies. I don't know about the British side of things, but the EU is unlikely to say the least to let that happen.
Especially since actual Irland is an EU member that does hold power to refuse any deal that does not work for it since agreement has to be unanimous
Yea i don't know why people even discuss this "option", the EU will never let go of the backstop. It would literally mean war in Ireland which would destabilize the entire EU.
There is a missing option. Her majesty the Queen might proclaim herself as the absolute monarch of the empire and then conquer the EU to make the UK great again.
Now that is the preferred option
Fantastic
The sun never sets
Make the U.K. Great Again. MUKGA.
There actually are 6 other monarchies in the EU - I think they would protest 😂
Great video, as always.
However, perhaps consider putting the promo stuff at the end of the video instead of the beginning? It's quite jarring having the intro -> ADS -> video structure with the "BUT before we get to this..." always there around the 30s mark. Don't get me wrong, I really don't mind the promotion, but I feel like it could benefit from being placed differently, so it doesn't disrupt the flow of the video itself.
Actually, it's quite nice the way it is. It's always safe to immediately skip the entire first minute.
It's like a second ad to me, I find it annoying.
I find especially annoying his explaining himself why he promotes. Dude, just do it or don’t
@@bosoerjadi2838 maybe he could give us a time skip before he starts promoting himself.
skipperino kripperino pls
Just keep skipping. If you're on mobile just keep double tapping on the right side of the video.
I have always very much appreciated this as a one-issue news channel, for Brexit and Brexit only. It follows that I am not interested in seeing this channel expanding to other topics. What I would love to see, on the other hand, is more background information. What did Britain's trade policy look like in the 1940s, 1950s, 1960s, 1970s, 1980, 1990s and 2000s? How did the EU (and its predecessors) fare over those periods? What about EFTA? Where did that come from? How did it do? Where did it go? Where is it going in the future? What about defence? Is the EU a defence structure also, and if not, why not? One final topic I would be interested in: What about the crown dependencies? Why aren't they in the EU? How did they get that deal and to whose benefit is that? And finally: I remember distinctly that Farage said that many countries were going to follow the UK and also leave the EU, it would be interesting to see how that is going, in which other countries politicians are currently calling for leaving the EU.
Cheers!
"In which other countries politicians are currently calling for leaving the EU." - It's been very quiet everywhere since they witnessed how Brexit is going...
In general, the "Brexit Mess" has increased the support for the EU in the other member states. Here in Denmark, support for the EU has gone from 60% to 75% after the UK referendum, and at the recent Danish GE, the eurosceptical party DF lost 60% of their seats in the Danish Parliament, and at the EU Parliamentary election, they lost 75% of their seats.
Before 1973, British trade policy centred around the "Commonwealth preference", i.e. tariff-free access to exports from the former Empire. Otherwise it could be rather protectionist and some key industries were nationalized (under all shades of government between 1948 and 1979). Capital controls were in full force between 1966 and 1979.
it is a pitty that there is not a EU pin
Ikr. But then they will seem to pro-EU and lose many pro-brexit subscribers.
I am quite sure that some government junior secretaries are watching you closely, because you do a lot of analysis for them, for free and quickly !! Good job mate !
Here we go again with the incessant ads...do companies think that by bombarding us with ads we are going to buy the product... actually it annoys me so much that I don't want to buy it 😒
use uBlock and Tampermonkey to block them all
MiMi Star
Short answer: Yes, that's why they do it.
Get an ad blocker. I haven't seen an ad on UA-cam in years.
Surely the best option is a peoples vote. If it confirms that citizens want “no deal”. Get on with it
john noble Even if they vote like that. Parliament will just do whatever to override it
You assume that leaving the EU is still the default option, but not all legal experts agree to that.
According to some parliament not deciding on anything would put the UK in limbo which is a status that still needs to be resolved.
That's true, but it's covered in the flowchart under the "parliament blocks no-deal" branch.
Most of parliament are disturbing remoaners who have been trying at every opportunity to delay frustrate and thwart brexit against their constituents and betraying the will of the people and referendum result to leave the undemocatic EU organisation
Pity there isn't a Oliver Cromwell when you need him to bring Democracy back to parliament and the country.I know what he would of done to all these undemocatic remoaners in parliament.
@@mrdemocracy7106 Is that worse than a bunch of Brexshitters?
Replace "Johnson thinks" with "Johnson says" and this video gains +50% in accuracy
A video on what Boris Johnson has both promised and done since become PM in regards to the EU/Brexit would be interesting.
My odds:
5% chance that we'll reach a new Brexit deal.
17% chance that Article 50 will be revoked.
66% chance that it'll come to no deal.
12% chance that something completely different and complicated will happen.
Talk to Ladbrokes, maybe you can bet on it
I bet :
5% on a new Deal.
40% they get another extension.
55% they leave with no deal on october.
Brexit is like a unicorn. Impossible thing with imagined power.
Accurate 😂
If he tries to prorogue, could the Queen refuse?
Yes she could and arguably should from a constitutional perspective. Boris constitutional role is to advise the Queen on what *Parliaments* will is. Parliament has already expressed a will against no deal back in March with a vote instructing May to get an extension. So if Boris wants to prorougue Parliament to get a no deal through which is expressly going against the will of Paliament then she should say no. Last time Parliament was prorouged to subvert its will we had a civil war and the person doing the prorouging lost their head. Remember constitutionally Parliament is sovereign, not the executive (aka Boris).
@@jonathanbuzzard6648 my sentiments exactly Jonathan.Could'nt put it better myself
Can someone please explain why May didn't take the deal to a referendum after the first or second rejection by Parliament?
If she did that she could've put a second question on the ballot about if it's a no vote what should they do and use it to stay in the EU, something she was for anyway. Plus she'd be a good chance to stay at number 10.
The problem with taking it to a vote is, Brexit doesn't have majority support from the public. The only reason it passed at all is because no one took it seriously and either 1. didn't show up to vote no, or 2. showed up and voted yes as a protest vote thinking it would never pass anyhow. If you take it to a public vote, the public will vote to revoke Brexit, which isn't what the Conservative party that is in charge of the government wants.
Second Referendum. Very likely to get a stay decision. That is bad for the leavers, but better for the average citizen.
That is why the vocal Brexiteers talk about the will of the people in past tense. Brits want a referendum on the final deal and remain would win because that is clearly the best deal.
Because it is so clear remain would win the-will-of-the-people people and the-EU-is-not-democratic people are against asking the people. Authoritarian hypocrites.
@@victor_venema Of what I've seen of poles there isn't any that constantly say remain would win, But lets be honest if there was another 1 the choices would be May's surrender deal or remain MP's wouldn't allow no deal to be an option
@@steveaustin4118
And they'd be smart for doing that. No deal Brexit would doom the UK. Apart from the economics which is what everyone brings up, there would be trouble in Northern Ireland again, maybe a resurgence of the IRA, and Scotland, which has already made clear it doesn't really like being part of the UK, would probably move even closer to breaking off from the UK seeing as the majority in Scotland voted to remain and they would see Brexit as an example of the UK being bad for them. It is a real possibility that the UK could completely fall apart after a no deal Brexit.
@@cammarc May's deal would mean we could never leave with out giving france access to our fishing waters and whatever the other countries decide they want, the backstop can only be removed once the EU countries allow so give up Gibraltar all fishing rights and only buy German cars, and pay what ever money they decide they want. No Deal is better than May's deal
@@steveaustin4118
So making a few compromises is worse than risking throwing the country into a state of chaos and even risk the dissolution of the UK?
Although not likely, but isn't it an option that parliament can revoke article 50 as a last resort?
You cannot withdraw an article from a treaty you agreed to.
Revocation is possible, but it's unclear whether the UK can still do that unilaterally.
@@czarzenana5125 The European Court of Justice (aka the highest court in the EU and rules on everything EU related) has already rulled that the UK can unilaterally revoke article 50. That rulling was made well over a year ago, and is therefore crystal clear.
@@jonathanbuzzard6648
It wasn't crystal clear at all, because it also ruled that it would have to be done in good faith. It wouldn't be allowed to revoke article 50 unilaterally to invoke it again right away, just to buy time. And that's the whole point. The UK could have revoked article 50 unilaterally before the 29th of March, because invoking of article 50 meant that the UK notified the EU of it's intention to leave the EU. You can come back on your intentions. However, the legal question is whether it is still just an intention after 2 extensions. I didn't say it is and I didn't say it isn't. I merely pointed out that the legal experts question the issue. Revoking after the extensions could also be seen as bad faith to buy time.
Btw. there are also legal doubts whether leaving is still the default option. That is based on paragraph 1 and 3 of article 50 which aren't crystal clear either, especially not after having had those extensions.
I am not the one who knows it all, I just point out that by every event legal positions can shift and time plays a role as well. Legislation is not an exact science and interpretation of the circumstances does matter.
@@czarzenana5125 Ultimately it depends on what the rest of the EU members one. If they want to take UK back fast, they'll say there's no need for a vote. So unofficialy Brexit cannot be cancelled unilaterally. Officially, we'll likely never find out, because it's gonna be a no deal brexit.
How about:
2nd referendum with options:
A. Leave
1. No deal
2. May's withdrawal arrangement
B. Remain
If A wins then go for 1 or 2, whichever got more votes. If B wins, well it's self explanatory.
No for option A let's just have no deal. May's deal is dead. I don't want brextremists crying they didn't get a meaningful vote.
And obviously for B, the best possible deal with the EU is membership.
Also love when people call remainers undemocratic. Just cos they're trying to represent the option of 48% of the voters....
When a government is elected the opposition dont jsut go : fair enough you won the election, guess we won't complain about anything you do or try to stop you in parliament
NPC Knuckles so you claim the government party should pass any laws without any opposition and regardless if they had a majority or not? Are you not a fan of democracy or you merely don’t know what it is?
@NPC Knuckles the thing I think you're forgetting mate, is that unlike remain the leave vote is not a homogeneous group that voted for the same thing. Picture it was remain being the Tory's in the last election, just shy of a majority and then the rest of the parties combine to form a coalition with a majority despite wanting very different outcomes from said coalition.
@Sam Mencia did I say I get to make the decision at any point? No, because I'm not a believer in autocracy. What I'm saying is that should we get a second referendum (which I believe we should) remain should be an option considering otherwise it'd be a vote alienating a significant portion of the population. And I'd argue your view is pretty undemocratic as a true democracy (not that we have one) is about the people having a discourse to reach a conclusion. Now seeing that the discussion over Brexit is ongoing I'd say it's absolutely vital to continue to look at all perspectives. Don't you think?
@NPC Knuckles Then what did you say? Because the opposition parties being able to block the ruling party's policies is literally what democracy is. Checks and balances.
@Sam Mencia did I say keep voting till I get the result I want, no. I'm saying that I believe there should be a second referendum now that we know what the options for leaving truly are and that it seems fair just and reasonable to include remain as an option on the ballet
I live in the Netherlands and about 20 months after the Brexit vote an economist on the radio explained that behind the scenes of course all kinds of negotiations were going on so the the UK could get a similar trade agreement like Canada which meant they would not have to contribute to the EU but had almost the same benefits as they had had before. That made perfect sense: of course the UK government would not waste two years doing absolutely nothing, they would be well prepared. But not long after we found out they had done absolutely nothing, unbelievable! I still can't believe any government would be this incompetent. It is not leaving the EU that is the problem, it is the stupidity of your leaders and I feel sorry for the people. Wish you luck!
"It would be hard to ignore them this time round" 7:42
I think it's safe to say that the first referendum hasn't been ignored looking at parliament for the last 3 years.
The topic hasn't been ignored, but everything about the vote was.
People voted for Brexit for different reasons, and basically all of those reasons have been ignored in May's deal (Which is essentially staying in the EU in all but name, and losing representation)
Brexit was also "we're leaving the EU, and have a set time to negotiate a deal before leaving", but every attempt to revoke this has occurred, and the EU has had to change and vote on allowing the UK to stay in past the deadline.
Having the explicit goal of Brexit AND the reasons for it ignored isn't really countered by the fact that discussions about it were had.
There could also be a no confidence vote and a multicoloured government gets an extention and a people's vote
The flowchart missed out the most likely possibility actually.
Boris turns the UK into a massive spaceship and fires her into space. The ultimate British Exit.
Nobody saw that one coming!
If you get a no deal Brexit, can we all stop hearing about it?
No chance; it'll be the biggest car crash ever.
I think if there's a no deal exit we'll hear about that for at least a decade.
Hi there TLDR News!
Maybe you could take a closer look at the legal background to No Deal being the default outcome? It seems there is some controversy about that, straight from the contents of the Withdrawal Act...
A deal cannot be forced and as long as there is no deal, there is no deal. The controversy is that leaving the EU wouldn't be the default option anymore if the UK doesn't decide anything. It would put the UK in limbo until it has made a decision.
@@czarzenana5125 Yes, but how does this limbo look like? Would they still be able to trade with EU nations during that period?
Hi Roland. I think it is clear a no deal brexit is the default position. The English acts of parliament are irrelevant in this respect. The EU rules decide how the brexit process runs. On oktober 31 the UK will leave the EU regardless if a deal is struck or not. Unless another extension is (1) asked for and (2) granted. Johnson refuses to ask for an extension so that option is out. The deal is out because the backstop is essential for Ireland and the Good Friday agreement ( and was proposed by the UK itself!). Remains the no deal brexit.
@@herbertpasveer6247
Oh, I think you missed something on that list...a vote of no confidence (almost certain) and after that a whole lot of options to prevent No Deal. I just hope Corbyn doesn't act like his usual, incompetent self and force a GE, since that would be a waste of time.
No Confidence - Government of National Unity - Public Vote (with extension of Art. 50 granted) - Game Over for Brexit. Or not.
Honestly, as a EU citizen I am starting to feel that it might be better to have the UK out of the EU...
@@anlumo1
I honestly don't know.
My guess would be that as long as the UK hasn't left the situation remains unchanged.
I have a maybe strange question... is there ANY possibility of the Queen stepping in and taking control of it all?
I'm not from the area obviously...
Yes, technically she could block proroguing parlement. Watch an earlier video on proroguing for more info. Unlikely though as that could lead to ending the monarchy.
Technically, the queen is still signatory for all UK treaties. She COULD just sign May's deal and be done with it. The UK would then, parliament be damned, be beholden to that international contract. It would ofcourse be illegal for the Queen to do so as she needs approval for her signature, but she's also exempt from punishment, so...
But let's not talk about ACTUAL civil war (as I'm sure this would be in the face of the monarch going against parliament) and talk about the political civil war that's going on. There won't be any winners if you continue to fight it on a do-or-die basis. It is HIGH time for compromise, but that seems to be the one thing MPs on all sides can agree on: They don't want THAT...
It's a weird system where the government acts on the queens behalf with her authority and she can revoke that authority and is allowed to do so on the promise that she does not in fact do that. So long as she does not try to control anything she is allowed to have the power to control things. Very english.
Well the last Monarch who tried that had their head cut off, so she might think twice about it.
@@ionnanskilliorus6877 And the last time Parliament was prorogued because it would not do what it was told ......
What comes next?
You've been freed
Do you know how hard it is to lead?
You're on your own
Awesome... wow
Do you have a clue what happens now?
In Black I take solace in the fact that we at least have a choice in what happens next. It amazes me that people seem to think that staying in the EU is the only way to maintain stability and security.
Anyway, we are not on our own; very soon we’ll be open to negotiate with the US, Canada, Australia and many more. We’ll also be able to reconnect with the commonwealth countries - we owe them our allegiance much more than we do the EU.
Nice poem though
@@MrMilkman1992 it's from Hamilton xdd
@@MrMilkman1992
The US isn't really that interested in a trade deal with the UK so good luck with that. Maybe Canada would be easier, but who knows.
L. Marc thank you for the confirmation, Mr America. Good to know
my bet is that parliament will revoke article 50 one minute before midnight of October 30th.
Well I really hope so
Would the EU have to vote as well to accept the revocation?
It's two weeks till my birthday too!
Ahh your star sign is a Virgo? Happy birthday in advance and RESPECT!Sorry it's off topic!
You are very good at clearly and objectively delineating the alternative scenarios and decision trees. Please make more such videos.
"WHEEL OF BREXIT!!!!!!"
Round and round the dial will go, on which outcome it stops?!… Nobody knows!
Dr. Drago's Madcap Chase?
As a non Brit from another European country. I just can’t understand the craziness. Boris Johnson seemed to have made a journalistic career out of slagging off the EU and telling fibs about it. Promoting some kind of colonial scoffing and superiority angle over the EU. It’s clear to the whole world outside of the UK that Brexit is a farce of a mistake, the EU is the best show in town for all of us and Britain has a strong voice in the strongest political and economic union the world has seen.
It honestly looks like some English nationalism has frightened and lied to people about the EU and generated Brexit.
The arguments about taking back control and yearning for some 1890 type British Empire to return seem crazy as Britain will have less control in the modern world outside the EU.
No one can explain the collective madness that is Brexit.
4:46 "...hanging there in order to keep you watching and increase our view time statistics" my god you're being sneaky now? LOL
I was thinking maybe you could add/discuss your percentage probabilities for each of those paths happening, and return to these percentages as the days/weeks pass to check how close you were.
BTW happy birthday in advance, Jack!
I know that pandering to the algorithm is the name of the game but I don't like being reminded of that fact...
Another vote with clearer terms is the fastest and most democratic way to decide in my opinion
For completeness, shouldn’t the diagram include parliament revoking Article 50 and (for now) canceling Brexit? Even if it is a highly undesirable outcome (for you Brits)...
But wouldn't that collective political suicide by anyone who voted to revoke it?
Honestly, no deal brexit, and then a referendum to rejoin the EU a couple years later is far more likely than a second referendum to revoke article 50.
I'm in the EU and I'm hoping for a no-deal brexit. A deal would be nice, but it seems that the EU only likes the kinds of deals that give away sovereignty and turn the UK into a colony.
There are 78 days left until my birthday.
Thanks, that I don't have to count for my own. :-D
@INDIANFUKING ALLTHEWHITEGIRLS
I will be fine here in Germany.
There is no time for any of that, given the HoC proved to be ineffective times and times again, and now they feel entitled to a vacation.
In a serious country they should be sitting and working.
The option were three, and they are still three.
All the HoC was supposed to do was picking between May's deal, no deal or revoke art 50.
Everything else is just a waste of time.
I agree with you... but neither of the three options gains an absolute majority in the HoC...
@@Apollorion
It doesn't matter, you pick one by exclusion, knowing that No Deal is the default outcome.
Please do a video covering labours government and what a corbyn government might look like.
Mmmh. The Soviet Union maybe ?
A Fu@@ing disaster, running the uk ito masive debt again,
The circle repeats itself .. nothing more ...
Thanks for these! Good stuff.
This channel is great and I'm a big supporter. Now, for a bit of constructive criticism: the audio levels are a bit of a mess. This specific video is so low volume that it's hard to follow, say, on a tube train. I'm an audio guy, I can help and share some tips&tricks if you want! 😊
Theoretically your services should be in high demand on UA-cam.
Can we add another aspect to this flowchart?
Intervention by the monarchy?
The Queen sacked the Australian Government in the 70's. ...There's the precedent!
Doomed...We're all Doomed...
+NPC Knuckles Except economists did foresee the dotcom bubble and didn't envisage infinite growth. But apart from all your ^facts,^ you're soooo right. There is no version of Brexit that will leave ordinary people better off. Not one. it will however greatly benefit Jacob Rees-Mogg, John Redwood and other offshore-based disaster capitalists. They will make billions from crashing the £, wrecking the UK and flogging off the family silver. They'll also achieve their longterm Tory agenda of fully privatising the NHS, lowering food standards and abolishing all worker rights. But yeh, apart from that, you're spot on.
+NPC Knuckles Gosh! You do enjoy your strawmen don't you? The £ has tanked and is fast heading for equivalence with both $ and Euro. We are indeed headed for recession (economy shrunk by 0.2% in the past Q and employers are pulling out of the UK en mass). There is no version of Brexit in which ordinary people will be better off.
+NPC Knuckles Actually no. it is very easy to foresee the inevitable consequences of Brexidiocy. Bausality is not magic. Stating facts is not "project fear." The collapse of vital supply chains is a clear and present threat. The ongoing exodus of employers, financial services and STEM is there for all to see - there's none so blind as those who wont look.There is no version of Brexidiocy that leaves the UK better off.
The extra routes which could have been put on here is if the government loses a no-confidence vote, as is quite likely at some point.
Yeah, I tought that as well. But with that option, the tree suddenly grows by quite a lot. Because if they loose a vote of no confidence, there are immediately three possibilities:
A) The government steps down and a new government of "national unity" is formed. This would most likely consist of opposition forces and soft-brexit proponents of the conservatives. But this just leads to the question, what THIS government wants to do. They surely wouldn't take May's deal, they can't be the third government in as many month to beg the EU for a change to the deal, so really they are faced with thre options again: Revoke, Extend, No deal
B) A new government is formed, but from Tory forces. This just puts you back to the start of this chart.
C) A new government can't be formed within the "grace period", so a general election is called. (This in itself is two options, because if the general election is before 31.10. this puts a new government in the position mentioned above and if it is after, this is effectively the same as prorogueing.)
Sidenote: The paths to "general election" and "second referendum" technically don't end there. The election one leads back to the top of the chart, just with a different government, and the referendum one has three possible outcomes by the virtue of it's nature.
In the end, however, the path doesn't really matter. There are three outcomes and the UK must choose one:
No deal, May's deal, Revoke
@@QemeH
There are other options as well which would change the tree.
The tree put forward in this video is very simplified.
@@QemeH While I largely agree with that, I think there's a fourth outcome, which is that some kind of "new" or more likely "fudged" deal is arrived at, not necessarily but the existing government.
Let's prorogue the Parliament FOREVER - that is what people voted for in 2016 !
My enameled pin order was number 2017... I was only 2 off achieving greatness
This is your best Brexit Explained video
There are some (legal) doubts that no deal is indeed the default outcome, which everybody assumes. "A different bias"-channel made a video about it. Maybe you could cover that.
His worst video, based on the fantasies of a journalist/self proclaimed "expert"
@@ChristianIce That may well be, that's one reason i would like to hear from TLDR about it.
Read EU art. 50 §3 It states all agreements between EU and UK will cease to apply 2 years after triggering art.50 unless both unanimously agree to an extension. It might not be legal under UK law, but it will happen nonetheless. EU ports and airports will stop accepting UK traffic, UK drivers licenses will stop being valid in the EU, and so forth. Whether or not is is legal for the UK government to let no-deal happen is irrelevant.
THANK YOU so much for your easy to digest visual information and narrations! Cheers! I hope I can become a patron one day to get one of those sick pins!
There would never be 3 options in a 2nd referendum.
agreed
So say the public votes against a no-deal. How do you pull it off before oct. 31? It would still result in no-deal, but this time brexiteers "ignored" the result and did their own thing. An extension is out of the question as then the UK would have to adopt the anti tax-evasion laws from the EU, the entire reason for this whole brexit thing.
@@Woffenhorst An extention will have to happen if Parliament legislates. And I agree with you that our relationship with the EU became a problem until the elites realised EU wasn't good news for their tax fiddles. I hope it's the people who win this time and a.50 is extended so the tax Avoidance rules come into force in the UK.
@@Jamal-Ahmed786 No, UK legislating an extension doesn't mean the EU will grant one.
@@Woffenhorst True but we could unilaterally revoke article 50 (ECJ has ruled this is fine), so not giving us an extension is kind of pointless.
Nothing. Absolutely nothing. Parliament will try to pass a deal, but they keep screeching until the deadline flies by
Maybey Johnson will take the money from the divorce bill for himself and move to South-America
That sounds like the most realistic speculation I've heard so far.
I don't even live in the UK and I already feel like I'm gonna get seizures from this circus.. can't imagine what Brits are going through.
I’m really looking forward to a no deal Brexit!!!!
You won't be for long!!!!
You know your in for a rollercoaster when every single possible outcome is terrible.
You should do a video on likely outcomes if a general election happens
Best outcome? The showrunners cancel the whole thing before season 3 ends, maybe take a soft reeboot or just leave the thing to die
I can't wait for the spinoff prequel series "the Brits at the EU" starring Rowan Atkinson.
9.20 ad break I give up
Adblock
@@SolusBatty use uBlock Origin instead, Adblock allows advertisers to pay for them to let the ad through if it isn't "intrusive".
What about the opposition winning a vote of no confidence and forming a new government around a pro referendum leader?... 😂
Please explain to us situation in Hong Kong
I wonder if he will talk about how some Brexiteers want Hong Kong back ahahaha.
@@westerncentristrants525 Seriously? There's British people that want to take back Hong Kong from China? That's completely insane.
Not sure he is qualified :/
Yeah, people nostalgic for the British Empire.
Hongkongers wish Britain was their sovereign.
British Occupied Ireland is set to be free now !
British Occupied Scotland is set to be free now !
British Occupied Wales is set to be free now !!
And how about Wales?
@@Apollorion Didn't Wales vote to leave with England (excluding London)?
@@Woffenhorst I don't know, which is why I asked.
Missing in flowchart...
Revoking article 50.
Not gonna happen - but it is a way out.
Plus the UK seems to ignore the idea that they will have to rejoin the EU eventually after brexit.
Here's a fun one:
Johnson prorogue's parliament. Deadline elapses. Johnson says 'Well now we're out of you, EU." EU says, "No you're not." Boris: "What. Yes we are. Deadline is passed!" EU: "Correct. That was your deadline to complete the article 50 process. In order for article 50 to be complete, we have to come to an agreement. We worked terms. We agreed to the terms. You did not. You attempted to change the terms. You agreed to the changed terms, we did not. Because there was no agreement, you did not complete Article 50 in the agreed upon time. Therefore, your status reverts back to what it was prior to you invoking article 50... which is a member of the EU. If you wish you invoke article 50 again, might I suggest you first past some sort of parliamentary agreement on your market or your Irish border. Good day." Johnson: "What the fu......"
Ooooh! Even better. EU: "However, due to your own internal politics, we vote that you are in violation of the founding principles of the EU. We are invoking article 7 immediately, suspending you from the EU, which you are incapable of leaving because of your own asshattery. But you're still in the EU."
Brilliant :)
Just leave without a deal already FFS!
if you sold a Czech Republic Pin with Shoes, I would buy it!
I say Scotland independence comes next.
Then there will be Ireland reunification.
Scottish independence that would last 5 minutes before they give it up for EU membership. Sounds like a hollow victory to me.
It is silly that the PM can simply tell the government to pause. Why can't ministers simply get together and decide things? This idea of a session frightens and confuses me
Do yourself a favor and watch this at x1.25
Also, funny you'd bring up your birthday as the original Brexit was supposed to happen on mine. :P
Could you make a new channel that covers regular news aswel?
Another great peice of balanced journalism. Better than sky news , BBC and other much more easy understandable info
Currently the No Deal is not in hands of UK parliament, but in the hands of EU (unless parliament revokes article 50). It is the EU who will decide if they want to give UK more time or not. The latter will effectively lead to No Deal, no matter what Boris, Parliament or people decides to do.
No Deal might also be a temorary state where the flowchart should go before they manage to strike a new trade deal. Also No Deal is also the scenario which will happen if any election takes too long to arrange and EU would not give the new extension period.
I refuse to buy a TLDR pin until Liberia gets its rightly deserved pin.
I was just watching ur previous video then bang new video.
As an American, it looks like the current deal keeps the UK in the EU with no representation. The MPs are not following the will of the people. They spoke about 2 years ago, they want to leave the EU. There was no demand to have a EU deal before leaving in the vote. The MPs added that condition without the people's approval. The US is waiting to help the UK. Give Trump a call. He knows how to make deals. He could even assist the UK in dealing with the EU.
4:40 Honesty is the best policy.
I don't know. I'm not sure if they're trying to be sarcastic with those comments, but to me it just comes across as "we know we're being a little scummy with our video design, but we want money so we're sticking with it." I'm not saying that they aren't entitled to try to make money from their work, but the shamelessness of how they're going about it and the fact that they're aware of it but choose not to change just rubs me the wrong way. Their recent videos have been heavily focused on getting as much revenue as possible and I think it's starting to wear away the quality of the video for me.
I feel like the option where there is no extension and time runs out and a no deal is forced is not on the flow chart.
What if the Crown refused to prorogue Parliament? (I doubt the old hag has the bottle to do that, but what if?)
an even deeper constitutional crisis, I guess?
Did you just call Queen Elizabeth an old hag?!?!
If anything she won't act because Politics are not for people of her status
@@yoavmor9002 Yes. And when she farts it smells like violets.
Then Johnson can only call a GE or New Ref.
@@westerncentristrants525 so all hope lies on the monarch
lol "two more ad breaks have passed".. as if I see any ads.. because if I did, I would immediately stop watching
It's 1 week until my birthday
You left one out. Cancel leaving the EU and just stay... Parliament can do that.