Self-Flying Planes: How Going Pilotless Will Transform The Industry For Customers Like You | Forbes
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- Опубліковано 27 бер 2023
- The aircraft are already here. Pilot unions are preparing for battle. And the FAA is playing it cool. Autonomous flight is coming to civil aviation sooner than anyone thinks, and it may prove to be a surprising boon for flyover country.
In January, Boeing CEO Dave Calhoun revealed an open secret in the world of aviation. “I think the future of autonomy is real for civil,” he told Bloomberg TV, before quickly offering some qualifiers. “It’s going to take time. Everyone’s got to build confidence. We need a certification process that we all have faith and believe in.”
The U.S. military has been flying autonomous planes for decades, of course, but always in a segregated airspace. Now it’s becoming increasingly clear that self-flying planes are coming to commercial aviation, and not in some distant Jetsons future world. Aircraft manufacturers are working toward it. Airlines are eager for it. The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) is preparing for it. And pilot unions acknowledge the threat is looming on the horizon.
A decade ago, the conversation was largely speculative. But today, many in the aviation industry believe that small, self-flying planes could be carrying passengers by the end of this decade. Then, barring no major safety incidents, it could take as little as another decade before larger passenger jets operate without a pilot on the flight deck.
“It’s all about money,” says Dennis Tajer, a pilot for 35 years and the spokesman for Allied Pilots Association, which represents 15,000 American Airlines pilots. “Manufacturers are looking for the next innovative technology to deploy so that they can sell it and make money, and airlines are looking at how they can do this more cheaply.”
It’s a charge that’s difficult to rebut. Six years ago, a report from the Swiss bank UBS estimated that autonomous planes could save the air transportation industry more than $35 billion per year. Still, the same report flagged a bright red public perception problem.
A 2017 global survey found that a majority of people would be unwilling to fly in a plane without a pilot, even if the airfare were cheaper. The next year, a public survey from Ipsos found that 81% of Americans would not be comfortable traveling on a self-flying plane. Notably, that survey was sponsored by the Air Lines Pilots Association (ALPA), whose 65,000 members make up the largest pilot union in the country.
The introduction of autonomous aircraft into the civil aviation mix will begin with small cargo planes, led by companies like Xwing, a Northern California-based startup. “We took an existing Cessna airframe,” says Xwing CEO Marc Piette, “which is the most widely used express cargo airframe, and we’ve been modifying that vehicle to convert it to a remotely-supervised vehicle. We think the cargo market is the best first place to deploy this. And we’ve been very deliberate.”
For the past few years, Xwing has been running automated test missions, mainly in California. A flight plan is submitted, just as if there were a human pilot, and the flight’s parameters are pre-programmed before takeoff. “It’s really a one-click thing,” Piette says. “You engage the system and it runs its mission.”
Until the technology is certified by the FAA, however, there will need to be a safety pilot on board. This allows Xwing to fly without jumping through regulatory hoops. “The safety pilot can disconnect a system and revert the aircraft to manual flying, but otherwise doesn’t do anything but monitor the system. It’s a very boring job,” Piette explains. Meanwhile, the Cessna is operated from the ground, with one human controller watching a moving map on a screen and interfacing with air traffic control.
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$35billion saved? Lol you can’t place a value on human life
Even boeing scare to venture to this pilotless plane.LMMAOOO
@@cyranova9627 yea this could be one thing i see airbus making a really big risk in, they push autonomous aircraft really far and if there is a slip up that results in a loss of an aircraft and maybe even life it could end airbus and the dream of self flying. Personally I dont think its a good idea, the Max crashes happened because a computer was trusted and Boeing failed to tell people how to turn it off, the AoA sensor was damaged and the computer cant tell if the plane is in danger with broken sensors like the pilots knew that nothing was wrong until the MCAS took over because of false information from the sensors
good idea for freighters.
@@Perich29 I see your point, however if something goes wrong with a 'non-passenger flight', that could still have great human cost (eg if it crash lands in a populated area, for just one example).
Air Crash investigation bout to have a lot more new episodes
"Human Factors in Aviation. According to the NTSB investigations performed into air accidents, over 88 percent of all chartered plane crashes are attributed, at least in part, to pilot error. In private or general aviation, loss of aircraft control by the pilot is the number one cause of plane and helicopter crashes."
Quite the opposite actually.
@@jamespayter6948 Yet Boeing doesn't like this idea.
Air Astana Flight 1388 had a complete control failure, yet the pilots regained control of the aircraft. They had to learn how to fly it again since its controls were reversed and damaged.
No automation can account for that. Instances where aircraft have catastrophic failures like Quantas Flight 32 show how brilliant pilots are in emergency situations. They lost an engine and complete control to the left wings hydraulics and electrical systems. Yet, it landed safely.
@@jamespayter6948 True, but if in an alternate universe where whenever a malfunction happened and the pilots did nothing to save the plane you would probably have more crashes due to malfunctions than pilot error and whatever can be controlled remotely, can also be remotely hijacked.
It's always human error. You're calculator doesn't make mistakes
Expect many family lawsuits
No pilot? No way!
88% of plane crashes are due to pilot error...
Waymo has upgrade to level 5 and there nobody in a front seat at all, there 100 percent autonomos. Would you fly on Waymo Airline?
This is how 911 was done
Lol ya and what happens when the system malfunctions like a month ago when the trim wheel stopped working for the auto pilot and the pilots had to turn around and manually fly the airliner
NO thank you
serious question, why not? Most failures are because humans are being dumb, not because technology did not work
Never no fckn way.
Absolutely they out they Fn mind
Pilot unions and public distrust will destroy this. This kills jobs, and adds no safety, in fact it removes safety if you remove the pilot. This is just greed, making sure you don’t have to pay people, pure greed.
US is a capitalist society, those unions will not be able to stop it.
Yeah as long as unions exist, pilots will exist , even if it is just to sit and drink coffee where everything is automated. But I believe airlines will eventually cut to one pilot. The co pilot is the ai.
Automated trains already exist
Pilot erroe is responsible for 70% of air disasters.
it's much harder for an automated train to make a mistake that kills passengers than it is for planes. If you want specific examples, look up flight QF72 or the two Boeing 737 Max crashes from autopilot. We will need pilots to, at the very least, monitor these planes for a LONG time. there's also the question of whether increased automation decreases pilot skills. If all they have to do is push a button and watch, what is going to keep them experienced enough to take control in the event of an automation failure. I still trust high-hour pilots over computer sensors.@@odzergaming
Flying is the safest way to get around. I trust the pilots with thousands of hours and the ATC with the same hours. No for me
Interesting. in the case of self-driving cars (different scenario I know), they've been shown to be considerably safer than drivers. Also, a number of plane crashes are caused by pilot error.
@@jamespayter6948 cars and planes are different. Your grandma, aunt, brother are not trained like a pilot is
Self flying plane makes more sense than cars because of less traffic. Self driving car is frightening but plane I would do
Nah not for me
How about managerless management? Sure to save trillions. But keep pilots on the flightdeck.
How such pilotless acft deal with diversions, go arounds, wind shear and the countless other possible things that can go wrong.😊
naaah i'm good ! Greed will kill the greedy one of these days.
The only computer I want controlling the plane is between the ears of the pilot! full stop!
I will not fly on commercial jets without pilots at the command. NOT for me.
Trump2024
I’m glad we trust 2 humans to get us to our destination.
I’ve been thinking hard about going to flight school to pursue a career as a pilot, and was getting pretty excited about it. This really kills my enthusiasm; these automated planes are projected to be entering the regionals by the time I will have finished training and logging the 1500 hours.😢
Trust me, they won't be carrying paying passengers anytime soon. Pilots will have their jobs for decades to come. You MIGHT start seeing single-pilot cargo operations by the time you retire, but that's about it.
This technology is a great step forward, but I still don't think it has the appeal of what I would consider as a "self-flying plane". The advantage of this technology is that it allows the operator of the plane to be in a remote location (as mentioned in 2:21), which means that the costs and safety concerns associated with on-board pilots go down drastically. However, I think that planes can be truly "self-flying" only when _no one_ is needed to operate them. In other words, I don't think they can be called "self-flying planes" just because they're operated remotely.
For them to be truly self-flying, they have to have the AI and equipment needed to autonomously complete a full journey, all the way from take-off to landing, with no human intervention. They need to be capable of managing most contingencies with little to no human involvement. They would kind of be like self-driving Tesla cars, only without the need for a driver to be at the wheel.
To make airplane technology like that mainstream, it could take decades.
No matter how advanced the science gets, Autopilot can work only on small planes. It can never 💯% work without a pilot with credible safety when it comes to big passengers planes which have hundreds of tons of weight to land and fly under myriads of weather and geographic conditions. 5:44 5:44
I been flying in p3d and fs2020 because flying is my biggest dream and being visually impaired, the sim is close to flying i will see. However if i ever had a chance to own a self flying plain i would.
my new computer not fast enough to handle FS2020 so I got FSX instead which is 2006 which works well for me.
Im sorry, but with as many times I lose signal throughout the day, I want someone to be able to grab the wheel. I mean, how much are we trying to cut here?😂
Lol. Pilotless airliner flights are not going to happening by 2040.
Even the most ambitions possible EASA (and probably FAA timeline) as established in the AI roadmap 2.0 is by at least 2050.
And even then Airbus and Boeing have said they don’t plan on removing pilots from their airliners they have said it. That’s assuming a fully automated or autonomous aircraft completely ditches an onboard pilot in the first place (which isn’t even a given)
Airliners don't want you to know this, but outside of take offs and landings they have been automated for quite some time. Modern AP systems will pretty much follow a flightpath perfectly the moment you hit cruise altitude all the way to the destination, only needing intervention for course change (such as weather).
You mean it can connect the dots!?? But not go around weather, volcanic ash, know where the jet stream is, suspected clear air turbulence, thunderstorm anvils.. weird. Sounds convincing thanks.
@@brian5911 actually modern avionics can navigate weather NOAA is pretty much satlinked to the AP.
So if we can talk about self flying commercial aircraft, then let's talk about self "flying" giant rigid cargo airships (no crew, no passengers, with flight-routes mostly over uninhabited areas, mainly oceans). One of the biggest keys to evolving a technology's profitability, along with the safe use of that technology, is through persisting in the use and refined efficiency of that technology, utilizing information provided, in part, from its recurring failures, which, in practical terms, defines the importance of the technological iteration process.
People are scared of technology, even though it’s the technology that provides safer flights more and more as time passes. Just like flying in the air bus, most people don’t know how much the airplane is flying on its own, while the pilot is sitting back, monitoring everything. These planes fly most of the flight specially in the airbus.
Yeah what you are describing is a win win situation for everyone.
Uh, yeah....not me 😮
I will be apprehensive of a flight without an autonomous system assisted plane.
The military don't have "self flying planes." The pilots are on the ground. And the safety record of remote aircraft is not great at all. Nothing beats the sensory perception of being in the plane.
Right they flew two into the trade centers back in 2001
@@CATSWITHKYLAwhat dose that have to do with pilotless airplanes?
@@aquagrip6876 Idk what do you think it means ?
No pilot. No problem. Are you serious? This is ridiculous.
Can we talk about all the threat management pilots employ to restore normal operations before they become a problem? That’s a thing …. Yet, half of this little video is about a shortage. Think about it.
There reason there lots of Pilot shortage because not only that nobody want to spend $90,000 on a training, some people has medical problem have sleep dificulty such as Peripheral Neuropathy, Restless Leg Syndrome or other condition.
Planes been flying itself since 1980s but now there trying out where the plane can taxi itself on the taxi way and park itself.
I got a better idea! Install this type of system in all commercial airliners as a safety precaution in case the plane is hijacked like 9/11 or the pilots are unable to fly. This will allow Mission Control to lock the manual controls & take control of the plane & get it safely on the ground! You can even allow them to lock the hijacker’s in the cockpit with no control of the plane 💡✈️🫡
Perhaps this would be alright, if everyone on board had their own parachute in case of emergency!
Absolutely tf not
About time. Thanks for this.
When it is just like cars and decides to make a u turn
NOPE
Dumb idea
The main thing now will be maintainance QC. I'm sure the AI pilots will soon be able to fly better than humans, but it needs to be a 100% perfectly working plane.
lets go
Will be safer than manned aircraft. Id trust unmanned flights over pilots on a suicide mission which has happened throughout the past.
We need autonomous planes now. The pilot is more prone to error.
Oh man you sound so informed explain it to us.