How accurate is the weather forecast? | Am I Normal? With Mona Chalabi
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- Опубліковано 24 сер 2024
- No one remembers when you’re right, but no one forgets when you’re wrong. Your local weather person knows that saying all too well. But while they take a lot of the heat (get it?), how much of it is actually justified? In this episode, Mona Chalabi looks at weather forecasting data to see how accurate these predictions really are, and gives us tips for when we should--and shouldn’t--trust the forecast. Want to hear more from Mona? Check out her podcast Am I Normal? with Mona Chalabi, from the TED Audio Collective.
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As a person that's lived through over 50 hurricane seasons in Florida not only am I grateful for our weather forecasters, but from my perspective I'm convinced there's been a significant improvement in accuracy and predictions over that time.
Thank you! That's really accurate!
I get that the weather forecast isn't great a week in advance, but when it says "No rain all day" while it's currently raining outside I feel like I'm entitled to be a bit pissed.
For me, it’s not so much the accuracy. I understand that we are relying on technology and weather forecasters are human. I’m grateful they exist. However, when they are competing for ratings and views and trying to win accolades, some of them start relying more on sensationalism to hold the viewers attention. This creates anxiety. People run out and buy items and everything begins to hinge on the words, tone, and sometimes theatrics of certain forecasters. No hate for the profession or those who are simply doing their jobs the best they can. We just need for the theatrics to take a back seat and let the forecasters who just want to provide the most reliable information possible drive.
So this whole video is here to say "it's hard to do weatherforecast but its easier if we don't try to predict too far in the future"? wow sensational video...
Wow
I would say the weather forecast is about 50 to 60% accurate
This is 100% accurate!
No. It is not. Many weather people are more accurate than your comment. (21 years AF meteorologist)
@@JoeMelendez meterologist... Now thats a lol.
All news should be consumed the way the weather forecast is.
What annoys me is how my iPhone is wrong, even in real time.
I like rain and the wet smell of soil. :-)
Petrichor :) me too.
Same
me too
I love the weather after rain too!! soggy but felt so safe
The title should be *why weather forecasts can't be accurate,* because in the end, she didn't answer the question.
Everyone who has ever existed has asked themselves this question
That was fun! As a former pilot, and someone even before that relied a lot on weather (military missions) - I had to trust in something to at least give me a bit of a clue... anyway, we obviously need weather forecasts... and then we deal with the inaccuracy. But this was a fun TED talk, so thanks for that! I'd like to indict a few weathermen, but then I used to work with them... as friends.
Hmmmm...those weather E folks where doing their best. As I can assume you didn't have any wx mishaps, so I'd say they were pretty good...
Forecasting is like foreplay, there’s no guarantee… but still, there’s a possible chance of an outcome (pun intended)! 🙏🏽😽😺
This is a family video, go easy lad.
It is incredible that we have to explain this sort of things to people, but then, hey, we spent the better part of two years explaining to them how good and useful it is to wash hands and vaccinate...
What I hate is when they say it will be a clear day then it rains.
the weather network is pretty accurate. about 90% accurate.
I'm good at weather forecast.
Tomorrow will be cool with showers/rain
Say that and I'm right about 90% of the time.
I do live in the far north of Scotland so it's cheating
Have you considered we are a speck of dust speeding at roughly 68,000 mph or (110,000 km/ph) around a HUGE EXPLODING NUCLEAR BOMB? We live in this thing named "The Universe" and predicting anything regarding weather is always a guess.
I hope that each day of the week is special to you. Enjoy every day as it comes to you. Don't force love or friendship on people who aren't interested in it.
Just take your days as they come to you, and enjoy them.. I LOVE YOU ALL
A couple of weeks ago we were suppose to get weather in low to mid 70's. They only missed by about 50 degrees. Today's forecasters are so terrible they couldn't tell you the weather if they were outside looking at it.
I like the brevity of this data, 👏
We'll never be able to predict the weather 100%, until we control the weather 100%.
The thing I like about Linus Torvalds is that he is an actual Computer science engineer and doesn't LARP as a virologist or eugenecist.
I take this as a way to justify procrastination.
Also living organisms can change the molicules in the atmo even if we knew their properties. Like massive forests (and humans)
For me weather forecasts, horoscopes and publicity is the same: It's entertainment.
Predicting the weather conditions in the netherlands is actually very easy.. 🌧
😂 😂 😂 Same for Ireland 🇮🇪
We need to hold psychologists and therapists up to this kind of scrutiny. They aren't accurate either.
As a Brit, what's an accurate forecast?
There'll be raining
Rain every other day if not every.
That's the forecast
Imagine that....forecasts more than a few days ahead aren't very accurate. But trust the science when it pretends it can.
Now, this were 2 wasted minutes of my life. Of course it is unlikely that we will ever know to 100% what the 10^44 air molecules are doing exactly. But we do not need that information either. I do not need to know what every single water molecule in a swimming pool is doing to calculate how long it takes to heat the pool up by 3 degrees. And yes, the closer I get to the very time I want to know the weather condition of, the more precise I will know what it is. I mean, when I look out of the window then I will know by 100% what the weather is actually. No big deal. But that is not what weather FORECAST is all about. Or is it?
How is this topic relevant to the othewise spot-on "Am I normal" series? *thinkingemoji*
영상감사합니다ㆍ솜결
Stop giving 7 day forecast. Just focus on3- 4 days. Simple solution
❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️
You're definitely not a weather person. Yes, it's not an exact science, but there's climatology, so it's not 100%, but a lot more than you are expressing. Climatology also depends on accurate information as you said. In all, yes be easy on your local weather person, but there's more than you mentioned. In the end, thanks for the go easy on your local weather person, because in reality weather is a thankless science. When was the last time someone called the local weather person to thank them for a sunny day, but anytime we are wrong we get plenty of complaints....
I don’t understand what this has to do with ‘am I normal’ ?? And isn’t this common sense? A weather prediction is just that.. a prediction based on current info and models. What happened to TED.
This is news to someone?
So i guess predicting global warming or cooling or whatever the supposed “climate crisis” is now is also inaccurate?
Idk
We're living on a cooling planet so enjoy your warmth while you have it.
Mind blowing!’ Did you know before time ⏰ was first counted time was already going’ who knows the actual time? living in the unknown 😵💫🤯
sounds like something a weather person would say
This is silly. The number of molecules is irrelevant. We actually have science that deals with reality on scales larger than the single molecule, duh. And 3 degrees off the day before, when it's *every* single day wrong (plus that 7+ degrees off a few days before) means the *model* is wrong. And obviously, the model is not considering climate change, especially the warming part.
Yes we can't get it perfect, but by major differences that are actually on the scales that are *known* to have changed, in the last 30 years, 50+ years, etc., since apparently these weather models were based that are still being used, is really the problem, clearly.
It's time to catch up to what's actually happening. And stop denying the actual accurately modellable realities, in the models themselves. We know how heat works, and humidity, and wind, and etc etc etc. That doesn't take "knowing exactly where each molecule is at every moment." That's not how science works.
Quantum computation?
50% accuracy.
Rain vs No Rain
Cloudy vs Non cloudy
Wind vs no Wind
😂
First
Actually i tried but. I won't get it
Lol
Are you open for a relationship? 😂Joking. Never mind.. 😜
A “forecast” is-you know-a FORECAST. And years ago, forecasts WERE accurate.
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Its not accurate, did prehistoric people have a damn weather channel. Yes they did, as I do. Its pressure . F a now day talking head weather metorogist