Are Base Cards DEAD? 💀Is LOW POP Always Best?📈When is a Pop Count TOO HIGH? 😬
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- Опубліковано 6 лис 2021
- As card manufactures continue to increase print runs sports card investors are becoming weary of high pop base cards. Geoff gives you his thoughts on whether or not base cards are dead.
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Base cards are not dead for people who don't want to spend $1,000 on a low pop graded card, but rather would like a card of their favorite players as a generic card collector
If base isn't popular that's just cheaper for me to complete sets
Exactly.
Let’s put it this way. If you’re collecting for yourself then buy what you can afford and what makes you happy. If you’re investing then invest in things like case hits, SSP, low numbered cards, autos… Don’t get caught up in the hype and always buy low(off season).
& when ppl give low ball offers in a hopeful return for the buyer which in theory is doing the same as the seller, trying to make a profit but when sellers accept low ball offers then that's when the values go down on our cards which then there is no reasonable profit margin to even make the purchase in the 1st place unless u just want the card because he is ur favorite athlete or on ur team, besides those 2 variables it makes no sense to low ball a seller, & sellers stop being so fuccn desperate for christ sakes
i'm a little late to this party it looks like...but what are "case hits"? Does that mean buying boxes, hoping to pull a great card?
When it comes to prizm nba cards, the Ja Morant PSA 10 rookie is $300 pop like 18k. But the same card but variation PSA 10 is selling for $500 but pop is around 500. For the extra 200 u should buy the variation rookie card
Should buy the rookie patch auto.
Pop reports can be inaccurate too for those who break their slabs and resubmit for a higher grade
You make a great point when you said
“Maybe there is a reason there is a low pop count on some cards.” Great video.
Amazing Spider-Man was the most printed book of the silver age..
It is also the most expensive set 1-100
Because the demand over reaches the supply, regardless of its high print run
2020 National Treasures Basketball Base are by far the most beautiful base cards on the market. And they're all numbered to /99, /49, /25, /10, /5, /1. Almost everyone who buys National Treasures disregard the base cards because they're too focussed on the RPA's and Autos. But the base from this years set are absolutely gorgeous.
National Treasures base cards are like overwrapped candy. Aesthetics being subjective, I would place Obsidian, Noir, Flawless, Black, even Prizm 19-20 above them.
Damon Arvid I love me some Obsidian. I also collect their numbered base cards.
Good point
I put the cards for Flair 96 thru 99 against any as the most beautiful bas cards. Just my opinion
Eh... negative
Base cards will never be dead. Base cards are what make other variations rare. If base cards didn’t exist then the variations would be the new base cards ✅🔥💸
preach
Logic
Much like you can have a million dollar collection- but unless you SELL you can’t buy a coffee with that new rpa gold /10 psa 10
Psa 10 base cards consider how hard the grading now a day. Have a Joe burrow psa 10.
What about Joe burrow rising rookie psa 10 low sereslized number?
@@Bnguyen276 what % of that Joe burrow cards are 10s v 9s and 8s?
70%?
More?
I think you should also talk about quality control with sets. For example this years Optic as we know had major QC problems. This could lead to cards that are normally easy to get in a gem mint grade a lot harder due to the quality issues. I think this is an interesting subject, IMO
I don’t think they’re necessarily dead but there’s so many variations of each card that it makes it easier for them to be forgotten!
Love the video as always!
I buy cards that I think look cool. I have never researched "pop"
Don't care
You are SUCH a GREAT communicator Geoff! Thank you for this 🙏🏼
The pop count and junk slab stuff is agrivating.
Grading is a service. If I want to spend the money and grade my entire collection that's on me , it fixes the condition of my collection for my own piece of mind and makes selling off what I don't want easier ..
Your information is always helpful. Thank you too you and your whole team
This use case could be used as an introduction to statistics course or maybe some basic economics. Over the years I really only collect graded cards for the players and teams that hold my interest.
I'm curious on how the grading companies keep track of cards that get cracked and graded by a different grading company, or even re-sent in to the same company to regrade. Particularly those non-numbered cards where you can't uniquely identify the particular card.
Does Market Movers also track other grading services cards like SGC?
Pop counts suck, there's to many cracked slabs
What’s a cracked slab?
@@monetschannel5773 some people don't like the grade so they crack open the slab and get a raw card or re-submit the card to a different (or sometimes the same) grading service
True. The only accurate pop on psa is psa 10.
Or fake slabs!
Some can barely afford to collect base RC PSA 10’s. Hell I cannot afford any Trout/Mahomes base RC’s in PSA 10.
Your thumbnail pic is FU@KN awesome!!lol
Then buy a cool second or 3rd year card in a more rare parallel.?
Since some collectors crack slabs either to sell as raw or resubmit to another grading company, seems pop count won't be as accurate.
Still so much speculation in recent stuff. There is too much of it, and too darn expensive. Give me the classics, pre-90's!
Jeff, we need a "Vintage Investor" channel. There's a huge need for this. Pre-war & all.
Good info Geoff, thank you!
Tons of great buying opportunities right now. Specifically the 2019-20 NBA rookie class. Players like Mann, Horton Tucker, Barrett, White, Alexander Walker, Hayes, Clarke, Rui, Langford, Garland, Bol, Hunter, Herro, Bazley etc. All are very low except for Herro but he is still a good value right now
You are very helpful. Thank You
i have a PSA 10 with a pop count of 1...only problem is it's a card that apparently nobody else has graded hahaha - thanks for the video, and i'm still gonna list it as a Pop 1 cause it is, and someone will buy it :)
Low population base cards will rebound. Way too much hype in the market. Tim Duncan and Kevin Garnett base rookie cards are stupidly underpriced right now for an example. Great buying opportunities
Great content Geoff, I agree with everything that you just said.
Great info! 📈
It is really cool to get something limited instead of a card that has an unlimited print run. For example, who knows how many Juan Soto Topps Chrome Update rookies there are….but the refractors are limited to /250 and then there is /99 and so on. It is more interesting and fun like that compared to just a base card. Plus his same rookie with his auto included makes it that much better.
Most undervalued cards right now are the Lamelo Ball Select Rookie Selections insert parallels (red flash, silver, blue and gold shimmer etc.)
The ones that are perfectly centered will be worth 100x their price raw in BGS Gem Slabs. If you are lucky enough to get a pristine or black label, you may be able to retire a little early. 😂
Thanks Geoff. I loved this. So informative. So true! So well presented! You are a natural guy on video. God blessed you with this gift and I'm sure you worked on it a lot to get so great!
Happy you pointed out spectra but sad because I like collecting them.
Thank you Jeff making this video ,I’m an new investor for card , you re every each in making helpful for me , heartily thank you
My belief is that the only way an insert card can be considered a rarity. If it's a variation of a player who is highly in demand.
Great video. Very informative. Solid content. Thank you.
With cracking a regrading, can we trust any of the pop numbers?
Just buy the rookie patch auto cards. Real value. True SSP.
The question that I have is comparing a psa 10 vs a bgs 10. I have recently graded a Justin Herbert colorblast from prizm draft picks that came in at bgs 10. That card is a pop 1 however when I researched a psa pop report, the same card has a pop report 13. It seems that it’s easier to obtain a psa 10 vs bgs 10. Does that mean that bgs 10 will be more valuable than a psa 10 and if so, how much more valuable would you price the bgs 10?
I've been dropshipping cards from ebay to starstock and making money off the starstock A grade. It's not to hard to get.
Is there anyway of finding out how many cases are produced of each product ?
I've collected on and off for 26 years and your advise is Right On! Invaluable advise again.
What would y’all recommend doing with base cards ? And do y’all penny sleeve them as well thanks in advance
I have my base cards penny sleeved in 3,000 ct boxes as it saves a lot of space than having albums.
Good cards are in toploaders, and those for trading are in binders, which helps keep them dynamic and not displaying the same thing over and over
As much as I hate base cards I still don’t mind a Topps base rookie the “flagship” stuff. Although I definitely only keep the ones I pull I don’t buy those cards.
I wonder what the population count if you throw in the other 2 big grading companies: BGS and SGC?
Looking forward to this
Explain to me the 2003 Etopps Lebron James PSA 10. POP count extremely low. Price low also.... 🤷♂️
Thanks for finally raising the Cardinal pennant. Now, just display it above the flat screen. And, congrats to the Braves & all the fans.
One interesting outcome of all the different variations available for each player is that the most valuable ones tend to be the most genuinely attractive, aside from jersey and number matches. Some of the parallels are just ugly, but now you can choose, whereas in the past you didn't really have much choice because there would only be like 1 or 2 different parallels at most so you would take what you got for your favorites players. But now, for instance with Revolution I go after the Impact parallels because they look the best to me. Yes, they're flooding the market, but now in order to be more appealing Panini has to make the cards super compelling, which is resulting in a lot of awesome looking cards.
Low Pop does not = High Demand, have to balance the two. A lot of these random parallels (looking at you Select) are going to be low pop but will the demand be there for a Purple Disco Swirly Ball Cat print PSA 10.
There is always demand for purple disco swirly ball cat cards.
@@phoenixsportsfan3108 disco dave..
The demand is tougher for low pop because they are pricier..and a very low population of the hobby can afford those.
This is why graded pop counts dont mean shit, cause its all due to how often the said card is being graded. On top of that, most of the time the pop count isnt very accurate cause soooo many people crack slabs if they dont get the grade they want.
I agree with Geoff the low pop BIG name players are actually pretty hard to sell because people are afraid to take a chance when there hasn’t been a few sold in the last few months. This is a great video thanks to the team at sports card investor !
No its’s dumb people trying to grade the most basic insert card they found in the dollar bin and get a 10 and then expect the card will sell for $1,000. There has never been that demand for insert cards. People want rookies of Chrome and Prizm base where people are familiar with what the cards look like.
So, it's better to invest to rookie inserts that was low numbered?
Pre-2020 base cards are still good to get/invest in. But not so much for 2020-2021 cards just because production nowadays has skyrocketed. So I go after colored parallels now.
I would say pre 2016 but just me
If I can send base cards to grade especially rookie QBs and they cost me roughly $13 then get $45/psa 9 and $100/psa 10 then I like it. I am talking base cards, not prizm base too.
So how much is 2010-11 National Treasures century materials signatures Kareem Abdul Jabbar Auto patch 8/10 graded BGS 10 Worth, and how much is 2011-12 Fleer retro precious metal gems red Micheal Jordan worth graded 8,5 bgs ? And are those cards worth to keep next 20 years?
This is why I just bought a Luka blue velocity PSA 10.
Jersey color match ✅
Low pop: 175 ✅
Tough grade ✅
Rookie Luka?
@@Edgar_Morales97 yessir
Thank god we have someone like you around to get us away from those ugly stocks and to invest instead in these super valuable cards.
It is interesting how numbered cards from the 90's arent as popular. Recently I purchased a 97-98 Jordan Timepieces Bronze Die-Cut numbered to 230 in PSA 9 POP 3 for $45. Then I purchased a 97-98 Jordan Super Powers Bronze Die-Cut numbered to 1,000 in SGC 10 POP 1 or 11 from PSA for $220. And those are 90's die-cuts which are known to be difficult to grade high.
Thank You.
Pop Count, to me, is a relatively low factor on anything post 1986 unless it's a weird insert or something unique, like a redemption or a card set that was never really collected or widely available... a lot of non-sports (comic book cards) fall into this. An example of this would be a Superman redemption card from a very unpopular 1993 set. You could only get the Superman card from a mail in hit that was 1 per every 2 boxes... Pop count of that redemption card is x4 PSA 10. THAT, to me, is an interesting card when it comes to pop count. No one is going to open a ton of boxes of that, find the insert, and get it graded. The amount of those floating around in the raw market is finite and rare.
^ BTW, even with THAT tough of a card to find (39 year old redemption of a rare set), the pop has gone up +1 in the last 3 months.
Bottom line: Pop counts CHANGE over time and they only go UP. And, as the hobby grows.... odds are they will go way up, which causes a supply/demand issue when selling and trying to hold value. Base cards are a commodity game.
Serial numbered cards are a nice pop. report checkmate....
Not everyone can spend $5,000 for a box with 4 packs.
i got a kobe topps rookie psa 10. still not sure if it’d be better off with a rookie variation or not… hard to tell
The cost has made it prohibitive to grade those base and cheaper cards which will protect pop counts
I don’t think base cards are dead but obviously ssp/ numbered cards are obviously better
Base is not dead. Either it's a fresh rookie and there's demand. Or it's an all time great and there's demand. Or something else bumps the player and creates demand. But it seems like 99% of cards will fade to worthless over time if it's not an all time great.
So even if a card has a high pop count but is in short supply it's value is still increased if in high demand? Correct?
One thing I have to point out on your Ja Morant pop 4 statement. There are people out there that try to collect complete PSA Runs of grades. One person I met had obtained a run of Griffey upper deck PSA 1-10 and he said when he was bidding on the grades 1-3 all of them went over $300 in a down market while PSA 9's were still in the $200's. So there are exceptions to the rule.
Wow, interesting, I would have never thought of that angle.
Almost seems cheaper to buy raw ungraded Griffey rookies & “mess” them up to get them to the grade you need lol
Does Market Movers show the total pop count for PSA, BGS, and SGC combined? That would be useful.
I’m buying popular base cards in SGC 10 Pristine gold label holders. 🤓
Dang this is like one of my last videos lol
2011 mike trout topps update - psa 10 pop count of 5500+ selling for $4000+
2011 mike trout bowman Chrome-psa 10 pop count of 462 selling for like $2000
This one has me just baffled. The bowman Chrome also is a way better looking card IMO.
1st Bowman > Tops RC > Bowman RC......simple
@@ozsportscardcollector4720 love your response....the hobby is.a huge ECHO CHAMBER and the masses echo and.follow what influencers push.
Started off BUY CARDS ALL CARDS ARE EXPLODING (Base moment)
Then BUY TOP ROOKIES (Luka Zion Acuna Tatis Herbert Burrow etc)
Then influencers said LUKA IS 5X MORE THAN JORDAN KOBE LEBRON. BUY GOATS.
Then Vintage.
Then COLORS.
Then Autos/#'d.
Ppl echo and.chase.whats being pushed by the big influencers
They sell well still in hockey.
Other sports just have no collectors.
What about the 1996 skybox z-force zebut Kobe insert and the 1996 skybox e-x2000 star date 2000 Kobe insert??? Are these cards part of the good or bad factor of inserts, thoughts?
They are part of the good investment. It all depends on the particular insert. With Kobe his early and tough to pull inserts are always going to draw demand but only until about 1998-99 cards. It seems that once Jordan retired that is the cutoff for great insert cards, unless you can afford exquisite inserts. Look at LeBron, his rookie year inserts sell well but nowhere near if he was a rookie during the 1995-99 boom. You can pick up later Kobe and LeBrons in the dollar bins for some of there common inserts. This is what Geoff is talking about when he sees dumb people grade the most basic insert cards from recent years, getting a PSA 10 and then thinking they are going to make a huge payday. There just isn’t demand for that stuff. Jordan is the exception because his stuff from 1990-98 is so hard to find in PSA 9 and 10 worthy form in raw. So many of those inserts have been bought and sold and shifted from holder to holder and why people get disappointed that it only comes back a 6 or 7. And you can’t rely on the cards in unopened packs or boxes because with UV coating those cards still together and you instantly have surface issues.
@@carolinatarheels7903 Thanks for the insight!
My Luka Pink Ice was pop 54 when I got it back PSA 10. Not even close anymore
Base will always have collectors. Most people can’t afford to put 250 on a single but they will definitely buy singles or a box. Some collectors like myself like higher end cards if they are attainable but I still love ungraded cards that are 5 bucks.
I was right there with you buying lower end Kobe rookies like Topps base, Hoops, Ultra etc. and then watched them go bonkers the past year. I bet I spent $1,000 from 1996 until 2005 buying every cheap Kobe in the $1-5 boxes and then cashing out last year. People thought I was nuts at how low I was selling those base rookies for $25-200, but I didn’t care because it was all profit and helped them get a deal. Same reason why I bought Prizm retail from 2012-2018. All those cards cost me were the price of the packs.
A lot of what you know about pop is a feeling. It comes with experience and knowing what you’re looking at and what you’re collecting. I would rather have a low pop 2nd or 3rd year card or insert that is SP, case hit, or #’d card than have a base rookie. There’s just too many base cards right now. I haven’t bought a single base card this year. If I can’t afford a rookie card in a non-base parallel, I’ll buy something else. Another year or another player altogether.
Great video with great information. I’ll be honest, I do collect and invest on low pop cards such as Kobe Bryant cards but I also do my own research because as you said not all low pop cards are considered valuable and/or desirable. A lot of sellers will advertise a graded card as low pop but I look at a lot of things - year of the card, card company, how was that player’s year (did they win the championship, milestone year (did they break a record) and of course the pop count.
I just got into buying graded cards I've been in the hobby when I was a kid and in the '80s and 90s and not you know kind of got back into it recently and I've dabbled with vintage and new and you know put collections together and stuff but never really dealt with any graded cards but I just started to and I'm just curious about this pop count thing because bought some grated cards recently and one of them is a luka doncic and it's called a star status it's a 2019 Panini donruss elite number 7 Star status and I look at the pop count and mine is a gem mint 10 and the pop count is three none higher and I'm like this can't be right cuz I got this thing reasonably cheap and I look at the report for that set or whatever and it looks like every player's cards has extremely low amount of tens like they're really hard to get on these cards and there's just low numbers across the board most players for tens there's zero one or two or three I think LeBron is maybe a few more but would you say that that makes this car very valuable? It's not a rookie card
@@iseeicyeyeseeayesea8283 I'm just being honest with you and in my opinion, it depends and sometimes only time will tell really, especially with Modern cards. There's so many variations, that even I don't know all of them, honestly. I have Kobe Bryant cards, that have low pop counts and non-rookie cards, and they're not extremely valuable. I bought them because I just wanted them in my collection. You can take a look at what the 9's and 10's are selling and see where that goes and I would say monitor the sales over time. If you want to grade it, I would really inspect it carefully (corners, surface, edges, centering, etc.) and see if it is worth turning to grade.
I consider 800 to be a high pop card and serial numbered to be high over 100.
I much prefer base cards in my collection. I picked up the base topps Jordan Walker because of the consistency it provides. It fits perfect with my 1959 Bob Gibson, 1979 ozzie smith, etc. the ssp’s, rainbows, and numbers cards are for the high end collectors/investors whereas the base cards are for people like me.
Same here a base pass 10 of my fav player ossai would be awesome
Brilliant..thank you⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
if Spectra gets super popular Panini will release Spectar RETAIL (just like they did Select) and milk the hobby dry. Load half the boxes with redemptions and not honor them, and Load the other half of boxes with 150 and 250 points lol
I found and late 80s early 90s baseball card that says to send it back for something..lol had it 30 plus yrs and never thought anything about it till you said this..are the valuable or something?
I'll take a base psa10 rookie anyday
I think this is were its paper vs some type of chrome card.
Something`s are only worth what people are willing to pay.
I will never touch select of any year. It’s ruined.
where can i find the number of cards made?
No idea, but sometimes if you read the odds in packs for numbered cards you can do the math, but keep in mind there are different types of packs.
I buy numbered cards if a card is out of 99 then there will never be more than 99 graded
pop count overlay with price history would be great.
nice shirt boss! where can i purchase one ? :D
Everything you said comes down to 1 thing and that's money. Doesn't matter if it's a base with a high pop count or not, if the player is great then people will buy if they can afford it.
One thing you missed on low pop cards...sometimes it's very easy to value them. Many times the low pop cards are just because they are low numbered, so you just look at the next higher numbered same card comp...until you find a numbered comp, then use a multiplication system to value them. 👍 Also, lower pop cards are more valuable, thus cutting the amount of people that can afford it by a lot to begin with.
Well damn it. I'm on the selling side of this. I hate when others are right. Lol 😆 I recently found 3 different Cards that have never been grading. So now I have the only pop 1 cards of those three cards. Well only through beckett. I didn't check the other grading companies. One of those cards is Jim Kelly ser#d to 10. I was thinking that card was worth money.
The thumbnail looks like someone who’s all in Mahomes rookie cards.
Great video, personally I think “base is dead” because the value of a psa 10 prizm Ja, is over valued, over populated. There will be a market correction over time. (Majority Of all base psa 10’s apply… I just picked a player)
I also think the psa market is so flooded, BGS And SGC will close the gap, maybe even over take PSA.
As long as there is demand there will be the price to justify it. There are tons of Griffey 1989 Upper Deck PSA 10’s and BGS 9.5’s yet they still sell for ridiculous numbers because it’s an iconic card. Parallels have always taken a back seat to the base versions. One of the rare exceptions are 1993 Finest Refractors because, again, they are iconic.
Lots of folks are losing their shirts on all this new stuff ,,stupidity ,,buy vintage blue chips not this garbage
Vintage and pre-war cards all the way baby! Even better, graded vintage and pre-war. And by vintage, I mean real vintage (1980 and earlier), not that junk wax from the mid to late 80s through the 90s that I hear so mean people call "vintage." Although, there are many "junk wax" cards that hold and grow significantly in value. So, I guess the lesson really is highly graded cards of future Hall of famers produced during their playing years (especially their rookie cards) will always be valuable.
80s is still junk wax
Juan Soto RC US300 was a poor choice to describe as over graded in the context it was used IMO. With only a very low number of his RC's compared to other from his RC class makes the base card more valuable and sought after based on his play and WLS win already. If he moves to NY or LA (bigger market) his sales will go through the roof. Acuna has like 5 variations of his RC & his "true" RC isn't valued more than the bat down version.