I worked on Wall Street from 1979 to 2009. The viewpoint here makes perfect sense to me....I have believed since Reagan that these are not liberal versus conservative issues. This is more profound. I believe the unuttered word here is corruption- wealth seeks power and power seeks wealth. The enlightened view is that capitalism and democracy need each other- and we are witnessing the decline of both in this nation...
Love your interviews, perspective, and insights, Keith.. good quality content always. I appreciate it. It is also nice to know that I haven't been the only one waking up at night wondering if I am simply not seeing reality here... the spin is intense.
Thank you for scaring me to my core. I've been watching your channel. And loved Danielle Dimartino. Etc. But with Mrs Pomboy. It solidifies my thoughts. Im scared as fuck about my future. And noone else around me sees it. Im doing okay as a 42, blue collar professional guy. And a realtor as a side hustle. Home owner/ single dad and mkt investor. With lil debt. But God this is so distressing. I feel like no matter how I go about it. Im retirely fucked. Yet I know it has to collapse to fix it. At least for my kid to stand a chance. The other worry. Is the social unrest. And overthrow of current structure and socialism flourishing. Your videos really scare me. But I thank you for it.
The US is full of anger, guns, and ammunition, as well as psychos who number in the millions, and it's already pretty dangerous. Let twenty percent of the country be unemployed, five percent be homeless, and another ten percent be seriously underfed, and it will be an unpleasant decade. A second Great Depression will not go as smoothly as the first did 90 years ago. A well-situated few acres with good water and decent soil should perhaps be part of your portfolio.
Great interview Keith and Steph. Steph is humble for her abilities and insight. Steph is insightful and articulate - her choice of words is immaculate and she does not have to resort to hyperbole to drive home an argument. No wonder Berkshire hasn't done so well as their investment style is 100% fundamentals driven. How long will OECD Central Banks help politicians kick the can down the road?
Great stuff from Keith and Steph! Appreciate hearing the down to earth, thoughtful and intelligent analysis, especially in these times where there is so much irrational thinking and pure, unadulterated bullshit out there. Thank you.
Small businesses and some larger retailers have been closing, and it seems declines will continue. Import restrictions are also limiting the supply of goods. Meanwhile, the federal government is flooding the market with liquidity. The classic definition of inflation is too much money chasing too few goods and services. Gold should do very well in an environment of economic stagnation and inflation. Thanks to Stephanie for sharing her wisdom.
I really enjoyed listening to the interview I didn't get to understand the charts because they're too small on my phone. Thanks for explaining small details like what is a fallen angel... I'm new to macro over the last eight months..usually just listening to the interviews because I can't see the text or charts..
Keith and Steph, QE=QAA（Quantitative Asset Accumulation） Most people argue incessantly about whether what the central bank’s actions make sense or not or whether it can succeed. My belief is that things seem to not make sense when you are working with the wrong set of assumptions. My Koovian CB Theory about what they are doing is based on the assumption that they desire to structure a massive wealth transfer towards themselves. The more loans that are created in society, the more people and firms risk losing when things go belly-up. And as they can print up money and buy these collateralized debt or loan instruments for basically nothing, where do you think all these assets end up when folks and firms can no longer pay their debt obligations?? Yes! The banks will own all of these assets. A crash or day of reckoning is practically unavoidable, the only question is how much more can they structure towards themselves before the final crash. Solutions against this type of outcome are almost impossible to engineer. Beware of what is coming!
Question: What else is somewhat 'safe' other than physical gold/silver, and decent mining stocks and mining royalty companies? I have no idea what else to invest in.
I'm quite heavily invested (likely, you would say (but, I wouldn't say...)) in Precious Metals - since beginning in 2017 and buying all through 2018 and 2019, and then during the Spot Price plunge in March'20. Now, try (really try hard) to consider these points: -GOLD is NOT an Investment - it's INSURANCE. -GOLD MINING Stocks are Leveraged Gold. -Credit Suisse just de-listed the ETP TICKER:UGLD ... I wonder why? ;) -SILVER is speculation that a) its usage in industrial applications will increase in some sort of Green Energy Rebirth-thing, and b) Mining Supply of SILVER will continue to degrade.
I’ve got al the same as well as silver and silver miners, maybe add some bitcoin to the mix, any inflation hedge assets will do well during QE infinity.
If you accept the premise that equities could tank 50%, “safe” could mean anything that has a legitimate chance of more than doubling to get you to an EV of >+1 because then you are at least compensated for your risk. If you have a long timeframe, that could be BTC, SPCE, NTLA, & EDIT. (Full disclosure I’m in all of them)
When there is widespread realization that this can not go on and market Drops, will PM [GOLD/SILVER] also drop initially and then reverse course? Further, what % should be invested in Bullion vs PM Equity and Energy? I wonder if host + guest read these comments and respond......
37:15 she begins arguement...the blaring omission in her thesis is the sentament of the retail sector in relation to spend habits (corralate FICO scores). The issue is restaurant and other small business mandates to "reduce patronage by 25%"..."to put it SIMPLE" as she implied...is that the "Lions share" of 'spender' spend; that is if they had stores to spend Side notes:..they ar spending on Robinhood& TDAmeritrade. walmart & target both have zero bicycle inventory...and aren't stocking. Think about that...why not? Summer time bikes no inventory??
As long as the US dollar survives as a global currency there is never going to be a popping of the corporate debt bubble or any other debt bubble that can have systemic consequences. Interest rates will remain around zero for all debt that the Fed effectively backs. There will be no real market for such debt.The Fed buys EVERYTHING. So the secular trend will inflate all assets that people believe to have value other than paper currencies and their derivatives like bonds. That will mean stocks in chapter one and then when the dollar and the world economy are finally on their last legs gold in chapter 2. That is the secular trend.
@@jc.1191 I never said that there would be a gold backed currency in the West, much less a gold standard. But in the world of ever mushrooming and unpayable US dollar debts, which demand that interest rates must remain around Zero, as it becomes clearer and clearer that the US dollar emperor has no clothes all roads will lead to gold, by markets not governments, except perhaps China and Russia.
If you want a mind blowing read, try "The Harbinger" by Jonathan Cahn. Beyond extraordinary linking of what is going on in the markets - and everything else - down to layers that will astound you.
Mr. McCullough, please do not use our Creator's Name lightly as when you said "swear to" followed by the Holy Name "God". This is the first time I remember having listened to you. All the best to you as pleases the Most High. ✌ peace.
I’ve lost a lot of currency in this market the past few years for I was short for some time but with that being said currency isn’t very heavy and I did put on a lot of weight during the time of losing all that currency , hopefully someday I will make some real MONEY 👌🏻 you know 74/47
@@dixonpinfold2582 he likes to over play his wins down play losses. He talks shit about everyone and can't take it. He's insecure. I called him out on the "good to get paid in dollars" BS Jan 2017. When i was proven right he blocked me. I listen to him all the time. People ask why he got x wrong and he rambles through why he shorted the IWM in 2018 when were in 2020 i mean ok.
"We think they have to go to the dollar and don't. They can go to gold and oil..." Errr wut? Have you seen oil trading recently? Also the US still holds more gold than anybody else. Driving the price of gold up helps the US more than anybody else in the world on a nominal basis. Let's say that they do decide to default on their US denominated debt and go to gold. Are we going to implement a global transaction system that settles in gold? How exactly would that work? Don't worry, I have the 200 years that it would take to implement such a system to wait for your response.
When are these people gonna realise that you just don't fight the FED!! They pushed the pause button on the business cycle in 2008. Equities up infinity and beyond.. cause FED goes Brrrrrrr
Wait till we get a huge earthquake this year...all the optimism that Americans have....we have more homeless more folks living in low wage jobs....also is the treasury going 2 bring heaven 2 earth....believe me the next solar flare or earthquakes..stupid folks will say they never saw it coming
Great interview!!! Thank you Hedgeye team. Keep spreading the truth. We need it now more than ever.
I worked on Wall Street from 1979 to 2009. The viewpoint here makes perfect sense to me....I have believed since Reagan that these are not liberal versus conservative issues. This is more profound. I believe the unuttered word here is corruption- wealth seeks power and power seeks wealth. The enlightened view is that capitalism and democracy need each other- and we are witnessing the decline of both in this nation...
She is such fine economist. It is great that you brought her to your tv
instaBlaster.
Love your content. It's crazy people don't know how hard they are getting f***** by the current system.
Very good presentation. Thanks to both. Enjoyed listening to Ms. Pomboy.
Thank you for the great interview. Steph confirmed many things that I was clearly seeing with the Fed.
Absolutely wonderful and informed discussion! Thank you! Bring Steph back more often :)
I love Steph.
Quote of the week : Steph 30:33 - you’d be a shmuck to wait for the bodies to float to the surface.
Please do this again!!
Thoughtful, trenchant, sober, and wise analysis from two obvious pros. BRAVO!
Fantastic interview. Stephanie Pomboy has such clear thinking and perspective. Thank you.
Love your interviews, perspective, and insights, Keith.. good quality content always. I appreciate it. It is also nice to know that I haven't been the only one waking up at night wondering if I am simply not seeing reality here... the spin is intense.
This lady is sooo mart. Thank you for bringing her in for the video!
Stephanie is always awesome!
Thank you for scaring me to my core. I've been watching your channel. And loved Danielle Dimartino. Etc. But with Mrs Pomboy. It solidifies my thoughts. Im scared as fuck about my future. And noone else around me sees it. Im doing okay as a 42, blue collar professional guy. And a realtor as a side hustle. Home owner/ single dad and mkt investor. With lil debt. But God this is so distressing. I feel like no matter how I go about it. Im retirely fucked. Yet I know it has to collapse to fix it. At least for my kid to stand a chance. The other worry. Is the social unrest. And overthrow of current structure and socialism flourishing. Your videos really scare me. But I thank you for it.
The US is full of anger, guns, and ammunition, as well as psychos who number in the millions, and it's already pretty dangerous. Let twenty percent of the country be unemployed, five percent be homeless, and another ten percent be seriously underfed, and it will be an unpleasant decade. A second Great Depression will not go as smoothly as the first did 90 years ago.
A well-situated few acres with good water and decent soil should perhaps be part of your portfolio.
The only solution to these problems is to buy bitcoin. They will ban gold soon and we can't hide it.
@@dixonpinfold2582 you are correct in your assessment. Sorry to say.
Hard ass ets man,
Great interview Keith and Steph. Steph is humble for her abilities and insight. Steph is insightful and articulate - her choice of words is immaculate and she does not have to resort to hyperbole to drive home an argument. No wonder Berkshire hasn't done so well as their investment style is 100% fundamentals driven. How long will OECD Central Banks help politicians kick the can down the road?
Great interview!!!
The money velocity has practically died because of debt servicing. Providing more debt doesn’t solve this problem.
Great interview. Have her on again!
Great interview!!! Congrats Keith
That was excellent ..... " legacy issues "
If those in Wall St are getting richer what would motivate them to change? What would you guys at @Hedgeye have Wall St do?
Always nice to hear from Benedict Cumberbatch's long lost sister.
On a serious note:
This channel has top notch guests and content!
I guarantee the back of her head is not flat
Intelligent and lovely as always.
Excellent job love learning about macro economy investing she was great !
Yes, this was a very good conversation
Great stuff from Keith and Steph! Appreciate hearing the down to earth, thoughtful and intelligent analysis, especially in these times where there is so much irrational thinking and pure, unadulterated bullshit out there. Thank you.
Great job
Small businesses and some larger retailers have been closing, and it seems declines will continue. Import restrictions are also limiting the supply of goods. Meanwhile, the federal government is flooding the market with liquidity. The classic definition of inflation is too much money chasing too few goods and services. Gold should do very well in an environment of economic stagnation and inflation. Thanks to Stephanie for sharing her wisdom.
I really enjoyed listening to the interview I didn't get to understand the charts because they're too small on my phone.
Thanks for explaining small details like what is a fallen angel... I'm new to macro over the last eight months..usually just listening to the interviews because I can't see the text or charts..
Keith and Steph,
QE=QAA（Quantitative Asset Accumulation）
Most people argue incessantly about whether what the central bank’s actions make sense or not or whether it can succeed. My belief is that things seem to not make sense when you are working with the wrong set of assumptions.
My Koovian CB Theory about what they are doing is based on the assumption that they desire to structure a massive wealth transfer towards themselves. The more loans that are created in society, the more people and firms risk losing when things go belly-up. And as they can print up money and buy these collateralized debt or loan instruments for basically nothing, where do you think all these assets end up when folks and firms can no longer pay their debt obligations?? Yes! The banks will own all of these assets.
A crash or day of reckoning is practically unavoidable, the only question is how much more can they structure towards themselves before the final crash. Solutions against this type of outcome are almost impossible to engineer. Beware of what is coming!
The early warning sign what the game of "Monopoly"
Question: What else is somewhat 'safe' other than physical gold/silver, and decent mining stocks and mining royalty companies? I have no idea what else to invest in.
I'm quite heavily invested (likely, you would say (but, I wouldn't say...)) in Precious Metals - since beginning in 2017 and buying all through 2018 and 2019, and then during the Spot Price plunge in March'20.
Now, try (really try hard) to consider these points:
-GOLD is NOT an Investment - it's INSURANCE.
-GOLD MINING Stocks are Leveraged Gold.
-Credit Suisse just de-listed the ETP TICKER:UGLD ... I wonder why? ;)
-SILVER is speculation that a) its usage in industrial applications will increase in some sort of Green Energy Rebirth-thing, and b) Mining Supply of SILVER will continue to degrade.
I’ve got al the same as well as silver and silver miners, maybe add some bitcoin to the mix, any inflation hedge assets will do well during QE infinity.
If you accept the premise that equities could tank 50%, “safe” could mean anything that has a legitimate chance of more than doubling to get you to an EV of >+1 because then you are at least compensated for your risk. If you have a long timeframe, that could be BTC, SPCE, NTLA, & EDIT. (Full disclosure I’m in all of them)
I wouldn't consider that safe. Stocks that act as bonds are ok to buy n hold.
When there is widespread realization that this can not go on and market Drops, will PM [GOLD/SILVER] also drop initially and then reverse course?
Further, what % should be invested in Bullion vs PM Equity and Energy?
I wonder if host + guest read these comments and respond......
Guest: "takes $7.50 in borrowing to generate $1 in GDP growth"........what could go wrong lol
The last three month of owed rent will be due on July 1st , how people will pay for this accumulated debt of rent ?
This was great, thank you!
Yep i watch this interview today as Hertz went up 176% yesterday and has 68% buy interest on Trading 212
I am 43 minutes into this excellent presentation, and almost too scared to watch till the end.
Prone to weak arguments aren't you¿?
37:15 she begins arguement...the blaring omission in her thesis is the sentament of the retail sector in relation to spend habits (corralate FICO scores). The issue is restaurant and other small business mandates to "reduce patronage by 25%"..."to put it SIMPLE" as she implied...is that the "Lions share" of 'spender' spend; that is if they had stores to spend
Side notes:..they ar spending on Robinhood& TDAmeritrade. walmart & target both have zero bicycle inventory...and aren't stocking. Think about that...why not? Summer time bikes no inventory??
Check again. Any bikes arrived yet?
Great interview.👍👍👍👍👍
Wealth, Intelligence and Beauty! And her too.
Keith sets a new record in personal restraint and waits a full 15 minutes before mentioning he's from Yale.
He waited the full hour before mentioning he's from Canada. That's showing the _real_ restraint. 🇨🇦
@@dixonpinfold2582 his dad is a fireman. More cowbell please.
Don't worry about gravity, Steph, your beautiful!
Keith has beautiful hair, is very knowledgeable, very successful, has imperfect grammar (routinely) and indulges in self-promotion not infrequently.
His dad is a fireman. More cowbell please. 😂
As long as the US dollar survives as a global currency there is never going to be a popping of the corporate debt bubble or any other debt bubble that can have systemic consequences. Interest rates will remain around zero for all debt that the Fed effectively backs. There will be no real market for such debt.The Fed buys EVERYTHING. So the secular trend will inflate all assets that people believe to have value other than paper currencies and their derivatives like bonds. That will mean stocks in chapter one and then when the dollar and the world economy are finally on their last legs gold in chapter 2. That is the secular trend.
Gold isn't coming back. It doesn't work for a modern economy.
@@jc.1191 I never said that there would be a gold backed currency in the West, much less a gold standard. But in the world of ever mushrooming and unpayable US dollar debts, which demand that interest rates must remain around Zero, as it becomes clearer and clearer that the US dollar emperor has no clothes all roads will lead to gold, by markets not governments, except perhaps China and Russia.
@@robertgorden8066 gotcha
If you want to know what a real economist sounds like, listen to Pomboy.
50% down is the real normal. Outch! Shes really going for it. Mama Bear cutie 😃
Fed works for the banks and powers that be. End.
Fun sobering interview.
June is gonna have a deflation print
Great interview.
If you want a mind blowing read, try "The Harbinger" by Jonathan Cahn. Beyond extraordinary linking of what is going on in the markets - and everything else - down to layers that will astound you.
A pension bail out is fair in some ways, but UNFAIR in more ways!
Love her.
instead of "earnings reports" we can start calling them "reality reports" for the next two quarters.
Lol, maybe. Still skeptical
Yes
The FED was able to postpone the crisis for a while. But not forever.
Time to update and get Stephanie Pomboy back in 2021 to cover the Biden era and maybe a downturn that's coming.
Helicopter funds always a bad sign
Please let your guests speak.
40:10 That's how you end up foreclosing on a nation.
You are both great and beautiful despite the gravity
Mr. McCullough, please do not use our Creator's Name lightly as when you said "swear to" followed by the Holy Name "God". This is the first time I remember having listened to you. All the best to you as pleases the Most High. ✌ peace.
I’ve lost a lot of currency in this market the past few years for I was short for some time but with that being said currency isn’t very heavy and I did put on a lot of weight during the time of losing all that currency , hopefully someday I will make some real MONEY 👌🏻 you know 74/47
CalPERS participants were promised TOO MUCH. Politicians SOLD OUT. Infuriating.
@21:51 Owns! Owns!
ua-cam.com/video/x5Xp9hvTvPk/v-deo.html
Keith is smart, obviously, but he just has that used car salesman energy about him
That's a cheap shot. You're calling him shady.
@@dixonpinfold2582 he likes to over play his wins down play losses. He talks shit about everyone and can't take it. He's insecure. I called him out on the "good to get paid in dollars" BS Jan 2017. When i was proven right he blocked me. I listen to him all the time. People ask why he got x wrong and he rambles through why he shorted the IWM in 2018 when were in 2020 i mean ok.
"We think they have to go to the dollar and don't. They can go to gold and oil..."
Errr wut?
Have you seen oil trading recently?
Also the US still holds more gold than anybody else. Driving the price of gold up helps the US more than anybody else in the world on a nominal basis.
Let's say that they do decide to default on their US denominated debt and go to gold.
Are we going to implement a global transaction system that settles in gold?
How exactly would that work? Don't worry, I have the 200 years that it would take to implement such a system to wait for your response.
Does US really have much gold? When was the last audit of Fort Knox?
@@Alexander-Bunyip Good question. Let's ask China.
Does anyone else find it amusing that Pornoy’s initials are DP?
Snoore
She should get her thyroid checked.
This woman is just another permabear. She has been bearish since 2012.
When are these people gonna realise that you just don't fight the FED!! They pushed the pause button on the business cycle in 2008. Equities up infinity and beyond.. cause FED goes Brrrrrrr
Without help we would be in depression
Wait till we get a huge earthquake this year...all the optimism that Americans have....we have more homeless more folks living in low wage jobs....also is the treasury going 2 bring heaven 2 earth....believe me the next solar flare or earthquakes..stupid folks will say they never saw it coming
For the sake of our children we must fight the FED
I'd love to have an "intimate conversation" with a particular part of her female anatomy! Steph is one hot tomato! Hubba-hubba!
🍆🐺