The End of D&D? Fact Checking Video
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- Опубліковано 3 лип 2024
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Timestamps:
0:00 Intro
0:38 Sales down 30%
3:33 Revenues and Profits
14:02 1 Billion on games like BG3
19:02 Why we need to fact check - Ігри
Once again, the most fair-minded and non-sensational UA-camr in D&D. Thank you for fact checking and continuing to be a voice of reason.
Best optimised Accountant build I've ever seen.
That dip into Journalist took it to another level.
Pretty good, but Jorgen (Path of Exile content creator) is an accountant for his day job and recently went over some Grinding Gear Games financial reports. Hard to beat PoE players at optimizing.
Even if we assume the claim of a 30% decline in D&D sales across the board is completely true, it's a pretty big logical leap to attribute it to WOTC alienating fans and the game dying from a mass exodus of players instead of the scenario mentioned later in the video of people delaying purchases until the release of an updated edition later in the year.
So are we to ignore the mass exodus? You are trying to have your cake and eat it too.
There’s not a lot of proof of a mass exodus.
@momomomocensoredbyyoutube9085 what mass exodus?
The only people Ive seen 'leave' didnt play or like 5e in the first place. So they were never buying modern dnd books.
@@momomomocensoredbyyoutube9085 the fictional mass exodus?
@@momomomocensoredbyyoutube9085there was no mass exodus.
The legion of players dont go on here or reddit. They are the invisible crowd that just plays and goes on with their life. They dont go on youtube and scarf down these videos
not to say a significant amount of peoplr started actually investigating new systems but siginificant doesnt mean a massive number.
Thank you Chris, I really appreciate the fact-checking video. These rumors and all the half informed scandal talk is tireding. Keep up the good work! Rico
Videos like this are really important for the community to see. There's just so much misinformation spreading everywhere about everything. Great effort on your part.
Another point to mention about the sales decline at hobby stores, and to support your point, is that accessibility is a huge part of this. Someone like me, with a visual impairment, is never going to buy the physical book in store, I can't read it. But, buying through DNDBeyond which gets me a digital copy that I can easily read and getting a physical copy as a collector for a trivial cost feels beyond worth it to me. Yeah, I know, feeding the cycle and not supporting local businesses but also... I want to be able to use the product I am paying for. I think accessibility is an often overlooked element.
I’m glad someone brought that up. I’m also a blind player and buying digital D&D books has been a huge deal for me since I can actually run games with them. Being able to read it over my phone makes things so much easier.
@@jordanwhite8718 The integration in DNDBeyond was an absolute game changer. I can't even begin to express it.
Great that digital helps both of you! I'm sick of the conspiracy theories that WotC should have any interest in stopping to print books just because they have stepped up their digital content.
We will always be a core of players that appreciates having tangible D&D items. There is absolutely no reason that WotC should not meet this demand. I'm just grateful that I'm able to read the physical books (as long as I remember to bring my reading glasses).
@@SortKaffe I still love the physical books from a collector perspective haha! Since I never use them, they remain pristine and everything haha
I mean I bought the books online, and physical copies, what I would like is a free digital copy to go with a 1 time code in a physical book, or something
I mean fr, I am happy and willing to buy both, because I want both, but I would rather an irl book comes with an online copy so I can read on the toilet or something
Yo, a G.I. Joe video game with BG3's quality would never have been on my bingo card but it'd be funny as hell.
Only if you can romance Snake Eyes and Cobra Commando
@@RobearRich Exactly the challenge with going for a high-end game using a tween IP.
The ICV2 survey is just an interesting data point on the state of the hobby yet that has never stopped people from making sweep generalizations about the hobby or the brand.
ICV2 was also the source of the myth that PF sold more than DnD 4e
Just curious what we're the actual sales numbers and based on this what sources ? ;)
Chris is now providing news consumption optimization content and I’m here for it
For real.
The misinformation out there is pretty crazy. I agree with the sentiment that regardless of how you feel about Hasbro/WotC, you should make sure what you're upset about is at least true. It's an exercise in self harm to be upset about something fake.
Oi! I don't want to hear your logic! I want to be outraged!
I haven't been in the loop with this revenue talk recently so this video was just new information to me, but I'm a little miffed that wotc is performing well given its multiple recent controversies and anti consumer, anti worker garbage. I'm not really sure why people would be reporting it isn't doing well if it contradicts reality (though to be fair they could've just panick fired a bunch of people since their revenue is down to make the profit report look better to investors).
@@eewweeppkk people often fall for wishful thinking like that. Especially when our emotions are all fired up. Conformation bias is another example of the psychology that drives us to latch onto things that seem to support our beliefs.
Do remember Fox Mulder's poster "I want to believe"? (In the X-files) Generally it's considered (eg Wikipedia etc) to mean Fox wants to find evidence of aliens etc, but I always thought he kept it as a warning to himself. That because he wants to believe so badly, he must be extra careful not to give in to conformation bias, or wishful thinking etc.
Certain UA-camrs are beating a dead horse. Since January 2022, they have jumped on any opportunity to create content with this narrative, disregarding that they're being a useful idiot in promoting fake news.
It's tiresome to find in my feed when their original content might be good enough that I hesitate unsubscribing, each time thinking "this has to be the last video before they let it go, right?"
It's not just beating a dead horse. Some content creators had their peak views on the OGL. They are trying to recreate this negativity. There are channels with nothing but negative coverage about Wotc. It's like paparazzi trying to take a picture of a celebrity stumbling.
I'm not writing in defense of Wotc. What disgusts me is that this type of coverage is not for the hobby, is just for a quick income.
It's okay you can say Dungeons and Discourse. Her channel is nothing but clickbait and rage farming
@@user-pi8pi3wj7h never heard of her but even the name has discourse in it, lmao, seems accurate
@@user-pi8pi3wj7h I'm almost adding DnD Shorts to the list. I prefer to think that their thoughts came from good intentions. But it is hard to give him a pass when I see the man spreading quick unchecked and sometimes fake news again and again.
@@jspsj0well, clearly Dungeons & Drama click bait content performs better than their regularly scheduled programming on this platform. 🤷🏻♂️
Am I right Professor?
Good morning Chris! About to rewatch the mounted combat/ knight in shining armor build because I can't remember where I left off, but had to come watch this first!
It's always interesting to see information like this and how data can be manipulated to tell a different story using the same numbers.
Have a great day, thank you for your diligence with this sort of info! 💜
I look forward to your update every time!
I didn’t expect a treantmonk accounting tutorial but as always I was locked in 😂
Thanks for breaking it down. This is just yet another example of NEVER believe any "news" source without doing the research first. Sad but true.
These are not real news sources. These gaming sites are not much more than blogs. Real news is not perfect, but it's orders of magnitude more reliable than this.
Chris, I’d watch your deep dives on basically any topic. Keep doing what you’re doing, your reasoned takes are always a good watch.
Digital might also include subscriptions to Beyond, and a whole lot of people have a much higher level of subscription that they strictly need. It is a huge cash cow for them. Once they get their own digital tabletop up and running I expect that number to go up quite a bit. 2023 still saw WotC paying for it, which hit their 2022 and 2023 financials since it was not purchased as a lump sum (they didn't just have $143m laying around). 2024 is the first time that they are taking full profits from it, so that number will also tick upwards for that reason.
I wonder when they'll make the "The End of Clickbait and Over-exaggeration for cheap clicks" video/article. I'd really like that.
I bet I will never believe number 7!
TTRPG UA-cam and Xitter are all about "ragebait." "Oh my God, Hasbro hired an insurance investigation company that 30 years ago purchases the name of a detective agency that did bad things... a century and a half ago. OUTRAGE!! That's why should should abandon D&D and play my new RPG which I'm launching on Kickstarter."
I dearly love creators who dive into facts instead of selling outrage. That's why I really enjoy this channel so much.
I would also like to toss out there, that I appreciate your in depth view on this matter, channels like dungeon craft and dungeons and discourse, feed off the negativity, they also don’t give the whole story, only feeding into the dead internet. While I get that bad news sells better then no news. It only serves to create a bigger divide with misinformation on their channels. I’ve personally stopped watching content like there’s because it only feeds into the hate train. Some people don’t want to see the world a better place, some people just want to see it burn.
Keep up the solid work Chris, we all appreciate everything you do for this game and its community! You’re a rock star my dude!
I"ve unsubscribed from much more mainstream channels than you mentioned bc of their spreading misinformation for clicks.
Many of these UA-camrs have incendiary content titles to drive in the clicks, so that at the 8:01 mark they can hit you with their kickstarter advert. "Hate on WotC, buy my Wotc compatible content." That turns me away more than anything.
Nailed it! And, the strategy clearly works. $$$
The hate that they spread for the people who allow them to earn a living doing what they love is stomach-turning. The OGL was an is an incredible act of altruism-show me another industry behemoth that gives their stuff away and allows others to compete directly with them.
Chris You send me to some dark places - like Hasbro’s annual report for 2023:
It looks like D&D as a brand is outperforming other core brands, albeit primarily driven by Bg3, and the movie. it also mentions that sales are marginally up from d&d beyond. (Though doesn’t seem as successful as MTG, I was impressed by the level of disclosure in other underperforming brands for contrast)
The real story is the 5 year investment return from hasbro shareholders is significantly down compared to market benchmarks with other brands underperforming. The whole report positions 2023 as a reset year (I.e a year of bad news) with a huge cost cutting programme. TDLR: The problem is not WOTC, the problem is Hasbro
Is it Hasbro? Or is it the toy sector in general? I've seen a couple articles suggesting the whole toy market has been slow to recover from the post-COVID crash.
Hasbro stock may be rising over the past 6 months, but it's still way short of where it was a few years ago.
@@agilemind6241 yeah good point - the only toy company outperforming the market is LEGO. Is that because they licensed D&D? 🤔 💭
@@aperson9556 It's because of all of LEGO's cross-promotional products. LEGO movie. LEGO Star Wars. LEGO Star Wars video game. etc.
Hi Chris! FYI, if you have paid access to Circana products you can see specific sales for specific books, run reports on specific sets of books, etc. It's the industry standard data collection product in the publishing industry and is considered fairly accurate regarding copies sold, etc.
That being said, I fully agree with you that hobby store sales being down say a lot more about *where* people buy D&D products, not *how much* people buy D&D products.
I'm not much of a commenter, but you've always struck me as someone who's genuinely interested in learning new things. So please take this in the spirit of sharing knowledge from our respective areas of expertise, the same way I've learned a lot from you.
I'm no expert, but isn't Circana data based on POS info? The local game store by me uses an old fashioned mechanical cash register, so they wouldn't even have POS information.
@@TreantmonksTemple Yes! It's definitely POS-based, but stores can (and even independent bookstores often do) report sales separately from the physical check-out system they use. Mind you, my area is book publishing--reporting may be significantly lower among hobby stores where books are not necessarily the main product.
That said, I doubt reporting is less widespread now than it was before, so the analysis that *fewer D&D books are being bought at hobby stores now than before* probably still holds weight. (Though again, it seems very plausible that's caused by people's buying habits having moved online).
@@sanaaa-v4411 fewer D&D books are being bought at hobby stores now than before is probably something we can safely assume without supporting data.
@@TreantmonksTemple "Mah boy's wicked smaht."
Market Intel analyst here... basically I collect data on rivals in my field. To add to your point check out if they are hiring. Where they are hiring. What positions they are hiring for. I believe I saw several key positions hiring so it's not like they are shuttering their doors.
12:22 while you're right that some players might be holding off on purchasing until the new core rulebooks come out, there are definitely factors on the plus side for sales as well. There are new people getting into D&D because of BG3. And new books like Vecna: Eve of Ruin that a lot of players are looking forward to (I know my group is).
I love how Chris's brand has slowly morphed into just "the voice of reason" and "content that has actually been researched" lol. Keep it up!
I feel it is important to state this up front so my intent is not misconstrued. No part of this comment is an attack on Chris or on the content of this video. Chris is a level-headed and intelligent person who takes time to make quality and well thought-out content. And even if there is a situation where I might disagree with some of his conclusions, I know that it is not ill-intended, emotional rage bait or pandering. What follows is a reaction to years of comments in comment sections throughout the fantasy TTRPG community.
With that out of the way, my god, this all-or-nothing, unrelenting, incessant tribal BS is exhausting!
As with almost every topic that could be discussed, the current health of Hasbro, WotC and D&D is complicated and nuanced and has hundreds of moving parts. There is plenty of room for discussion and for a variety of opinions that are not just the most polar opposite extremes. Chris did a very good job pointing out some figures that counter some arguments of doom and gloom. The argument can also be made that Hasbro and WotC maintained their profitability at the expense of their productivity (hence the mass layoffs). If indeed the long term goal is to make D&D into a billion dollar brand, then maintaining short term profits by slashing the workforce (the means of production) is not a step in that direction.
Why are WotC sales down? I'm not sure why anyone thinks they can give a definitive answer to that. WotC themselves won't have the full data to have that definitive answer. However, one thing we can be sure of, is that it is not a singular reason. It will be a complicated variety of factors. Are some people not buying new books until the new core rules are released? Absolutely. Data from previous releases show that to be a factor and, no matter how much WotC tried to dance around the subject, there will be people who treat this as a new edition. Have some people been turned off by the OGL situation and either stopped playing D&D or stopped buying WotC products? Sure. Several other TTRPG companies had a big spike in sales immediately after the OGL situation. Some for other game systems and some for 3rd party products. One thing I don't see discussed as much, but could some of it be related to the price hike that happened around the same time? It was for me. I joined the hobby only about 3-4 years ago and collected most of the WotC 5e books, but I have only bought 2 since the OGL and both of those were books published prior to the price hike. Their newest books are outside the price point that I could justify given my disposable income. I've seen comments from others that they are not satisfied with the quality of WotC products. Others the amount of content. Others have specific products (Spelljammer, for example) that caused them to stop buying. Which of these is the biggest factor, or how many more factors are there? Who can know?
Some people are happy with WotC and some people are not. That's Ok (or at least it should be), it is not a sign of one's character. I watch content by people who still like WotC and by those who don't. WotC bought the D&D brand. They don't own the hobby. Enjoy the hobby in whatever way you find best for you and your friends, and then live and let live.
Many years ago, before I moved away to go to college, my best friend's father said to me, "In life there are principles and preferences. The secret to a good life is knowing the difference and acting accordingly." No wonder world peace is so hard. We can't even find peace in the fantasy TTRPG community. Some days I need escapism from my preferred method of escapism.
Excellent video! I think a lot of people *want* to get swept up in the anger towards WotC post OGL and believe the sweeping claims about D&D being in these dire straits, but as you've shown, there just isn't much evidence for that being anything close to the reality.
Hating on WotC and D&D is more in vogue than its ever been, and while corporations are going to do corporation stuff, that's inevitable, I'd argue it's actually a really good time to be a D&D fan post-OGL. The SRD license is more open than it was before thanks to creative commons, we're just on the cusp of a rules revision that sounds like it's going to try and resolve a lot of the concerns we've had with the game for a long time, and we're seeing more and more third party content officially supported on D&DBeyond all the time.
WotC/Hasbro keep doing corporate stuff that we don't like, and should be called out on that, but most of that stuff really is just standard corporate stuff that 90% of the companies you interact with daily are doing, and a lot of it is the kind of stuff they had done in the past to way less backlash.
I really appreciate you making the content in your video clear in the thumbnail. I hate being trolled with a misleading thumbnail, even from content creators who just use it to bait haters (not that hating isn’t justified) into reading reasonable arguments.
A real shocker that last edition sales goes down when the new is announced. Who in their right mind would spend 1000$ on buying all of the books today when tomorrow they will potentially be the "old version"? With layoffs and similar their economy should be fine. We also know that profit when the new version hits is going to be better. They are currently investing in the new edition, thus net profits are slightly lower. They normally reduce marketing and employee costs while doing something like this to compensate.
interesting to see this channel move from calculting dpr (damage per round) to dpq (dollars per quarter)
Math is math
I wish I could hit the like button 1000 times.
I really appreciate your fair-minded approach. As a D&D UA-camr, I try hard to avoid rage-bait content. I want my content to be fair and objective, even if it means my channel grows slower. I'd rather have slow, steady growth than depend on the fandom's whims.
This information surprises me a little. I'm annoyed with content creators that are pushing bad analysis and hasty assumptions.
Video games over virtual table tops would be the wrong move for Wizards anyway. VTT has a large number of advantages: subscriptions instead of sales, drives ancillary purchases like D&D Beyond and premium subscriptions, recapture of brand/IP control through owning the marketplace/API, and much of the content creation is outsourced to the user base. Let Larian pay the licensing fees on Baldur's Gate and earn money getting sent new players; focus on the vertical integration of competing with Roll20, Talespire, etc. Why spend years and millions developing a cinematic game that sells for $70 once when you can generate basic cosmetics to keep a table of 5 subscribed for $5 each per month?
counter point, up keep, running a VTT cost a ton of money to keep running and update for new content especially since they're looking to rush out a ton of smaller releases rather then one big release every 3 or so years.
Keep in mind that much of their 'profit' is because Hasbro laid off 1,100+ people in December. That makes their numbers look more attractive to investors.
GREAT JOB! I know there's a lot of false or misleading info out there about many topics. Heck! Regarding D&D, I won't bother listening to most UA-camrs videos when they talk about the status of D&D, especially if I know they have some animosity towards the brand or its companies. You, however, have always come across as pro-D&D. So when you're critical of them, I take note.
I appreciate your honesty. Thanks!
One of my favorite videos Chris has done. I generally stay out of D&D/WotC/Hasbro discourse, but I appreciate him using his expertise and rationale to set the record straight for his viewers. I only hope that this teaches people to be critical themselves and not just wait around for videos like this.
I don't like the direction WotC takes D&D nowadays. But I value facts. Thank you for this video.
I would prefer these rumors to be true, of course, because only a hit in the wallet can make Hasbro and WotC stop and think.
But, I guess, being a large corporation and controlling lots of popular IPs makes one almost invincible.
I think your guestimate on DND digital profit are a little higher than what is actually there primarily because I'm fairly certain that mtg has had increased digital sales so assuming they've tread water is not a safe bet. Great vid, always love a good fact check. 🎉
The D&D part of this video was teaching us not to listen to a devil that whispers sweet nothing in exchange for your soul (marketing you as a product for advertisers to haggle over)
We really haven't moved past the shady door to door salesmen, now they can just find us outside the house and learned to sound more authentic
Chris, THANK YOU FOR YOUR WORK ON THIS. I LOVE this video. D&D UA-camr click bait has caused me to unsubscribe MANY, who I used to follow. Conversely, I am sharing this video with EVERYONE I know. Sorry about the all caps, but really, I am so tired of self-serving UA-camrs trying to kill the game we love. Thank You, again from one who has gamed since 1980.
CAPS DON'T BOTHER ME
Wow! Fascinating video. I was skeptical about other stuff I’d seen. Nice to see someone explain a financial report in a quick, digestible way.
It is also hard for hobby stores to compete with the downloads from D&D beyond since you need to purchase the books via digital download to be able to use them in the app
Nevermind the availability of pirated copies.
"D&D sales are down 30%"
Source: ICv2, just trust me bro
Brilliant!
You are a freaking star in our community. Thank you for taking the time to look into this, and to remind us all to be a bit skeptical, and measured, in our initial responses to 'news'.
I had a friend with the last name Ayoub in college. He pronounced it AHY-oob (first syllable sounds like the letter "i").
Ah, thanks!
Thanks, Chris!
I feel it is a part of being human that we are inclined to believe people won't lie about facts, even if we disagree with their conclusions about the facts.
It makes us less likely to fact check (outside of reading the article for details), and I really appreciate your work.
Even with so many people trying to capitalize on WoTC's blunders, I think people easily believe everything is going downhill because every few days you see them doing some weird shenanigans :S
Like how they removed the option to buy certain parts of books instead of having to buy the whole thing. Now we'll have another week of youtubers covering that information lol
A year ago they were calling it microtransactions, and it was WOTC being greedy. Now it's a travesty they removed it (even though they let you add piece meal content for free through their homebrew)
One comment about the incredible increase in profit and why it might be misleading. I am pretty sure, but not willing to do all the research, that WotC closed the deal on the purchase of one of those game company purchases in the 1st quarter last year ... So that would be a huge operating cost biting into profitability from that quarter, thus we can't say there was a huge boon in profitability this year, more than it being a major cost coming off the books. This also doesn't mean that they weren't grossly profitable this quarter as a 38% profit margin in business nowadays is almost unheard of.
I love your point about the accuracy of the doomsayers. At this point, the only reason you would believe these people is if you want to believe them.
This is why you ask the Wizard, not the Bard, what in the nine hells is going on. Thank you for your informative candor.
The biggest issue at the moment is the new DnD beyond shop imo. Got rid of many user-friendly and consumer friendly features, most importantly the a la cart shopping option.
If that's our biggest issue, we're in a pretty good place.
@@hawkname1234 I disagree. DnD Beyond without a la cart is a very questionable value proposition for most people. and those who invested into it in the past now got the rug pulled from under them.
@ 13:00 i think no one bothers to check past youtube predictions because of un-spoken, or subconscious agreement. If viewers found evidence that youtubers had made wildly inaccurate predictions, then us viewers would have to recognise we too had wildly inaccurate beliefs.....which would raise the disturbing possibility our current beliefs might also be false. And no one wants that! So everyone forgets and we all move onto the latest outrage.
Michael Crighton wrote about an interesting related phenomenon he called the "Gell-mann amnesia Effect".
I'll just quote him because its pretty cool:
""Briefly stated, the Gell-Mann Amnesia effect is as follows. You open the newspaper to an article on some subject you know well. In Murray's case, physics. In mine, show business. You read the article and see the journalist has absolutely no understanding of either the facts or the issues. Often, the article is so wrong it actually presents the story backward-reversing cause and effect. I call these the "wet streets cause rain" stories. Paper's full of them.
In any case, you read with exasperation or amusement the multiple errors in a story, and then turn the page to national or international affairs, and read as if the rest of the newspaper was somehow more accurate about Palestine than the baloney you just read. You turn the page, and forget what you know."
- Michael Crichton (1942-2008)
Soon as Stranger Things 5 drops D&D will sky rocket in sales
That show breathed life into the franchise
New Core Rule books I imagine will sell like hot cakes too
Thanks for bursting my bubble with the truth, Chris! Considering all the misinformation I hear on a daily basis about global politics, US politics, and everything on down, I'm generally skeptical about everything. I wish more people were, especially considering most of us get our news from Twitter and TikTok. I should probably be fact checking your fact checking, but I don't have the energy for that. I think I'm going to have fun playing D&D instead.
I wish more people were as well.
Small correction: Swen's post literally says "I'm really sorry to hear so many of you were let go"
That means they were fired, plain and simple. As for the tweets, Larian Studios is likely under some contractual obligations regarding the way they portray their partnership, I wouldn't assign too much value to them to begin with. Was the OGL part of the reason they are done with D&D? We just don't know one way or another.
"so many of you" is a pretty vague statement, he follows up with "It's sad to see...there's almost nobody left." but it seems unlikely to me that Larian met with WOTC in 2017 to discuss BG3, and then at the end of 2023, all those WOTC employees were still there to be laid off. That would be a very unlikely retention rate. (edit: Did a bit of fact checking on this one. Apparently, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, average employee turnover in this kind of industry would be near 30% annually. Over 6 years that means that 88% of those employees likely wouldn't have worked for WOTC anymore by the time the Dec lay offs occurred...if they had an average retention rate)
It seems more likely (to me at least) that "there's almost nobody left" refers to the lay offs in addition to people leaving WOTC beforehand for any number of reasons. That's why I came to the conclusion we can't really infer how many of those original staff were part of the Dec lay offs.
@@TreantmonksTemple Ah! I misunderstood the point you were making, I thought you meant we couldn't infer that the people of that meeting had been laid off at all, not that it was merely a point about the specific wave of lay-offs in December. Thank you for the clarification
@@Ramschat OK, we're in complete agreement. It's pretty clear from his tweet at least some of that original group was laid off.
Reddit DnD has a hard time understanding that the vast majority of players are not on reddit, are not up to the minute informed on WotC's current faux pas, or even aware DnD is owned by Hasbro.
Reddit is just 4chan revamped. A very very large echo chamber. My kids are all moving on from Discord now. Reddit is like using MySpace in 2024
@baianojack I still use reddit, but with a few massive grains if salt haha. Very echo chamber-y for sure
What did you roll on your Intelligence Finances check?
Amazing breakdown!!! Most informative video on the topic!
I have switched systems but I still enjoy watching your videos. I might not be a fan of wotc (i had to deal with all the mtg crap before hitting the ogl issue) but it is important to have the facts correct!
This is true so much - Headlines aren't Articles. I would point out Swen says "WOTC was great to work with and very supportive" while many of the posts at the time on Reddit were talking about Hasbro. We know there are issues between Hasbro and WOTC, and some WOTC people are Hasbro first- for obvious reasons.
The only insider info we have kinda seen says- the D&D Dev team and social team LOVE D&D and love gaming. It's corporate management that doesnt agree with the fans and devs. But most of that- is not stuff we can 100% confirm. It just feels true.
Love your work, thanks so much. I am usually the person having to knock this stuff down from my friends sending me links like that. XD
I would like it if they gave Ed Greenwood more work though and credit for the work hes done.
I suspect that a diversification within Hasbro and WotC can allow for one part to "carry the load" while others might struggle, like diversifying across Magic, D&D, Transformers, etc. Otherwise, a "reduction in operating cost" (staff layoffs and reduction of independent contractors) can compensate only partially and temporarily for the loss of incoming revenue.
They might be failing forward, meaning, their profit wasn't as high as they wanted, but still made a profit.
According to the owner of my friendly local gaming store, D&D book sales have been increasing because collectors want to grab stuff before it goes out of print with the next edition.
Thank you for this excellent fact checking, Chris! You are, as ever, a reliably thoughtful and accurate source of D&D news and analysis. PS. I’m looking forward to discovering the 2024 edition through the lens of your new builds series.
Thank you for being a voice of reason. Nice to see a fellow Canadian posting on social media that has some critical thinking skills.
Nice rabbit hole you found there. Good job!
Assuming you are correct Chris, The company can shit all over the community and not lose a dime. That sounds like a company I don't want to endorse.
Really appreciate you doing this video, its so good!
Thank you again Chris! Like and share everyone. There's a lot of misinformation out there about a lot of topics. We can only protect so many of them.
Really appreciate the work you put in for this, Chris!
Well done Chris, way too many people are more than happy to just latch on one number and use it without context.
Chris, you're doing Tyr's work here, and as always, your effort and even-handedness (eh?) are appreciated.
Bravo! Way more TTRPG UA-camrs should actually research the claims they/their videos make. And I double applaud your pushing back against mis/disinformation. Thank You
I mean, currently a Bunch of us would like to see wotc pay some kind of price for their recent greedy behavior, but broadcasting what you want to happen and not the truth, just makes you fox news or ann and the like
@@andyspillum3588 What did they do that was unusually greedy? They're a for-profit corporation. Sometimes they go through ups and downs and have layoffs.
What are the optimal feats and spells for this accountant build?
Lol, small box retail manager of giant corporation build!
Professor DM on the channel Dungeon Craft (check it out, his channel is excellent for how to run campaigns!!!!) had an excellent take on this: D&D isn't dying in the sense of the game going anyway, just that the corporate model is changing. WotC will transition to something like, say, Monopoly Go (also owned by Hasbro) as the main way to monetise the brand. The books and rule designs will be a secondary concern cos it's just not that lucrative in comparison.
I agree and disagree with that. Digital is where the game is going and subscription models are the way everyone is monetizing digital. However, D&D is fundamentally different than Monopoly. It would be like buying the base Monopoly and then expanding the board with new properties and chance cards. God I hope I didn’t just give Hasbro an idea. I like the longer view taken by Matthew Colville a few months ago on his channel. The game has changed more by who is investing in the game and for how much. As long as WotC remains over the content creation and Hasbro just funds the thing, I don’t see much changing other than pairing print releases to digital releases. Forcing you to buy the digital to get the print. That’s my 2cents
I really appreciate stories like this. I find the industry fascinating. Also thank you for getting getting rid of that music at the end. I listen to your videos on two times speed and often they sound like game over music
Thank you again for keeping it real. I love that your channel is ALWAYS as objective as possible.
(Slightly too) hot take: the end of D&D (i.e. wizards no longer making new content for it) would be a good thing, because it would give more legitimacy to 3rd party spinoffs, and force players to try other rpgs and broaden their understanding of roleplaying games. AND the old material could still be used, shared and homebrewed
Thanks Treantmonk!
This was so very needed. Thank you so much for clearing the haze. If I could like more than once I would.
Far too many people let feels beat reals, and will misinterpret and take the most ungenerous interpretations and statistics if it appeals to the feels even if it's not the reals.
This often leads to people being shocked or completely caught off guard when the company doesn't immediately fold even with all the doom mongering going "ANY DAY NOW!", but, it also makes people lazy and complacent and instead of formally divesting and being strict with their dollar, they just go "Oh they're failing anyway, my 5/30 bucks won't stop the freefall" and just spend even if they really should be more shrewd.
I agree. I’m a D&D fan and also into comics and also video games. This type of “X company is doomed!” crap happens a lot. I remember people on message boards (there I go dating myself) arguing death of Marvel and then DC and then Marvel. Everyone since the N64 days has cried doom for Nintendo when they have been the only console company to always stay profitable and not take the razors and blades approach. It’s a allergy to reading financial reports and doing actual research. We have all this info available through the internet, but yet we are lazier and stupider as a society than before. That contradiction is odd to me. Now I need to go yell at some kids to get off my lawn
Videos encouraging and showcasing healthy skepticism of news/media and deeper investigations into the source of rumors are definitely not what I signed up for when I susbscribed, but I'm not complaining.
Before the OGL I will subscribed to at least 12 d&d UA-cam channels. I'm now down to three.
I honestly think they've done more harm to this hobby than Hasbro could ever do.
Thank you Chris for putting out an informative balanced video on the topic. It is really disgusting how many great DnD content creators have taken to making clickbait videos on DnD's supposed downfall and spreading misinformation after profiting off of the game for years. The videos range from innocently misinformed to horribly skewing data for views, using their platform to spread bad information for their own profit (while hypocritically denouncing the "evil" corporation of WOTC/Hasbro for earning money off of the content WOTC creates.)
Just another W video from the best optimizer in the game, showing your great range of skills and willingness to educate people in a thoughtful and honest way.
D&D literally cannot end as long as we keep playing it with our physical & PDF books.
Truuu
How are you getting PDFs for new content?
@@lanthorn9910 1) you don't need new content, even older editions are playable. 2) versions of 5e put out by other publishers are often available in PDF.
@@JackOfHearts42 the short answer is, you're not. Thanks for letting me know.
@@lanthorn9910 i do miss TheTrove...
Bravo, once again, for helping people with information hygiene in the hobby we love. ❤️
Thanks so much tantalus_complex!
I actually had seen none of what was referenced in this video and watched it completely out of context. Interesting.
I also play the online looter-shooter Destiny 2. According to the community that game has been dying since Destiny 1 dropped. (There's a slump right now, the most recent expansion left a bad first impression and the next one got delayed, but it's still true that people say it even when that's not the case.)
Destiny fan here too! I dropped out of D1 after Taken King and came back in D2 for Witch Queen and stayed until current season. I think the content of games is what draws people and the creators aren’t super focused on supporting a current thing when the newer updated version of the thing is around the corner. IE D3 and updated rules to D&D. I expect late 2025 and 2026 to see revenue spike as new adventure books hit. Right now they are recycling old modules. Awesome for new folks but old guys like me still have the original books.
This great video warranted you a follow.
Wait a minute... That was edutational!!! You tricked me!!!
Man, those layoffs were horrific, and it's weird that talk about it seems to have died down so quick. I guess since it was a repetitive feature of several industries recently (*cough*gaming*cough) it felt much less of a WotC sin.
Yes, these layoffs have long been normalised as part of corporation behaviour. What's needed is stronger worker rights
I am one of those dragons that is still buying stuff because D&D Beyond. I'm a sucker for preorder bonuses. Plus adventures are evergreen for 5e.
Wizards should be pumping out shows with their IP instead of movies to make money. I would eat up any decent DnD show.
In my work over 30 years I've seen just how useful interviews and surveys of "key industry figures" are for robust quantitative analysis. The answer is "not at all".
Nothing wrong with DND video games. Take BG3, add "DM Mode" and a custom map/NPC editor that DM's can use to host private games, and you've got a great DM tool on your hands that can be updated and balanced without having to print new rulebooks.
Someone told me it is worth commenting on videos you think are important for "the algorithm", i.e. it will generate views for the author. So that's all I'm doing, as I would no doubt need a Treantmonk video to calmly, and adroitly, explain such an algorithm. Such a great channel
I change the way that I enjoy the content. Well I still like buying the books, I like having the availability of a digital edition. And that is the main reason why I buy things online.
The voice of reason once again clears the air. Good day sir!
Based on the margin, I would _guess_ most of the profits came from digital sources such as BG3 and Monopoly GO (M GO is evidently going gangbusters) which have very little overhead as they are licensed out. I also wonder how dumping all that inventory impacted revenue - while it would have been a negative margin impact, selling off all that product that went to outlets such as Ollies still would have generated some revenue with the sheer volume.
But yeah, we're all mad at WotC, so the temptation is great to click whenever we seeing a headline dogging on them. Thus Uncle Algo rewards that content.
Great take. Monopoly is Hasbro revenue tho but BG3 was 100m$ I think.
As much as many people may hate to admit it, Mobile gaming has been on a massive rise always, and it will continue to be so due to its convenience. Mobile gaming revenue is ridiculous even when compared to PC and console gaming.
Great job chris! Without a doubt the best tabletop content creator, can't wait for the Eternal Cockroach revised!
I'm totally looking forward to the Snake Eyes video game! 🎉
DnD is releasing fewer products lately. They are closer to launching a new core book and they expect fewer purchases cause of that.
Makes sense to hold new releases.