Juliette Declercq - The Fed Has Lost Control - Markets Heading Lower - Jimmy Connor
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- Опубліковано 6 лют 2025
- Juliette Declercq is the founder of JDI Research and has over 20 years of experience in trading and macroeconomics. In addition to economics, Jimmy and Juliette also discuss her favorite place to ski in France and what her favorite sport is (you'll never guess). I hope you enjoy this chat! To learn more check out her website below...
www.jdiresearc...
Summary of the Video: Juliette Declercq - The Fed Has Lost Control - Markets Heading Lower - Jimmy Connor
Global Economic Overview:
The U.S. economy remains strong, with growth around 2-3%.
China is in a downturn despite government stimulus.
Europe, especially Germany and France, is experiencing economic struggles.
U.S. Economic Outlook:
2024 was buoyed by strong wage growth and reduced inflation, leading to increased purchasing power.
2025 is expected to face a slowdown as wage growth normalizes and inflationary tailwinds subside.
Central Bank Challenges:
The Federal Reserve (Fed) is perceived to have lost control over financial conditions.
Rising risk premiums are pushing up long-term interest rates, complicating the Fed's policy effectiveness.
Recession Risks:
Juliette anticipates a significant economic slowdown in the first half of 2025, with a potential recession driven by weakening labor markets and reduced consumer purchasing power.
Interest Rates and Yield Curve:
Long-term rates, such as the 10-year yield, are rising due to risk premiums rather than economic strength.
This dynamic could force the Fed to cut rates further than expected.
Impact of Fiscal Policies:
Increased tariffs and fiscal dominance under a potential Trump administration could create inflationary pressures in the long term but recessionary effects in the short term.
Global Power Dynamics:
The U.S. retains significant influence as a key consumer market. Policies like tariffs aim to strengthen domestic production and maintain economic dominance.
Currency and Market Trends:
The U.S. dollar remains strong, bolstered by economic "exceptionalism" and technology dominance.
Euro and Yuan are expected to weaken further.
Technological and Resource Frontiers:
The U.S., particularly companies like Tesla, is poised to dominate future technologies in AI, quantum computing, and renewable energy.
Strategic interests extend to areas rich in resources, like Greenland and Canada.
Market Strategy:
Juliette suggests being cautious about broad equity markets like the S&P and NASDAQ due to economic pressures.
She advocates for investments in high-growth sectors, specifically Tesla, leveraging the AI and energy revolutions.
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I hope you get some insights from Juliette! If you like the work we are doing please Subscribe Comment and Like and help me feed my family! 😀😁🤣
@@BloorStreetCapital 🙏
This is great! I love her. Smart. Thank you both for the great content!
Thanks for the positive comment Kevin and for taking the time to view our content!
@@BloorStreetCapital I just subscribed! Really love your interviews. Keep them coming!
Great analysis! Thank you!
Thank you for the comment and for the Super Chat! I tend to get more negative comments than tokens of appreciation. 🙏🙏🙏
@@BloorStreetCapital You are having great interviews! Please do not worry about the negative comments. More people will be on the wrong side of history especially in big turns. I like your channel having economists from countries other than the US, which can give different valuable insights.
Great video! I love how this lady speaks! Very good with English as a second language, and i love the emphasis on the syllables! Hahaha.. very good perspective, thanks guys!
Thanks for the comment and for taking time to view our content! I also love the French accent!
Juliette . Wow . Excellent interview. Thank you very much. 👌👌👌
Thanks for the comment Tomas and for taking the time to view our content! 👍
Your guest is extraordinary, this podcast is worth its weight in gold which is the only subject you did not touch on to my disillusionment.
Thanks for the comment Andrew! If you want some gold commentary I suggest you check out our 3 hour Gold Conference recently released link here bit.ly/40BSeSz and our conversation with Raoul Pal also discussed gold.
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I'm 37 and have been looking for ways to be successful, please how??
Sure, the investment-advisor that guides me is..
Elizabeth stark
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Her services is the best, I got a brand new Lambo last week and paid off my mortgage loan thanks to her wonderful services!
Great get..... Juliette gives few interviews. She has an uncanny ability to read the market accurately and is never afraid to go against consensus. Seriously sharp mind. Much appreciated.
Half-truths and half-baked macro logic, she knows just enough to be dangerous. And, even if she was a macro genius it's rare to translate that into trading profits. That doesn't mean H1 in the US won't slow, it just won't be for the reasons she said it would be. She points to one instance of a right call (last year), it's the same with all these market Nostradamics, let's see the entire record...that's what I thought.
Juliette is fantastic!! Great interview!
Thanks for the comment Mark! Any other suggestions on who we should get on the channel?
@@BloorStreetCapital Brent Johnson (of the Milkshake Theory), Doomberg, Darrius Dale, Gem Carson - all stellar minds.
Great guest!
Thank you!
Excellent Perspective
Thanks for the comment and for taking the time to view our content! If you're not a Subscriber, please Subscribe! 🙏
she did not address yield curve contraol which is coming then both equity n bond mkt pricing mechanisms r destroyed
JC one of the best --- thanks
Thanks for the comment and for taking the time to view our content! Any other suggestions on who we should get?
Jimmy, excellent guest and GREAT timing!
I respect Juliette hugely. 😻
Thank you! She was recommended by a friend and I must admit I’m very impressed. I always like to hear different perspectives. As you know she is negative on the US economy but Raoul Pal is very bullish so good to hear different views.
I've been following Juliette for a long time. She doesn't give many interviews so you're one of the lucky ones!
She is a highly independent thinker, who often doesn't exactly adhere to one side or the other and has her own timeframe about when certain events might happen.
I also followed Raoul Pal a long time and have even been a subscriber, but I am not interested in nor generally agree with the path he's on, since Real Vision was radically restructured last fall. It's not that I don't watch crypto (I do), but I don't dive deep into that world.
There are so many great experts out there, we are spoiled for choice! 😄
I subscribed to Bloor Street
Thank you 🙏🙏🙏
Greenland should follow Norway's example and maintain control of their natural resources, not let multinational corporations make all the money.
I should actually do a video on Norway and what the government has done. Canada has 10x the resources that Norway has but we have nothing to show for it. The politicians have just frittered it away.
She said she doesn’t know if inflation will come back. Well it already has, PCE has been rising every month since touching a local low in September. Given base effects , increasing commodity prices and rising labor costs probability remains favorable for a continuation of slow but steady increases in inflation
Many of the people I Interview say the same but I believe inflation is subdued but it has not gone away. I agree with Paul Tudor Jones that all roads lead to inflation.
@ The level itself is less important than the direction. And it can rise even as growth slows, which isn’t positive. She’s right about positioning which is largely expecting robust growth. And growth is robust at the moment. Fairly high probability of weakness in the 2nd half.
Juliette is nice but rarely right. Her strong recommendation for 2024 was to buy JPY against USD 😂
Really?
Thanks for the comment Tim! It’s a tough job being a forecaster! Who else would you like to see interviewed?
It would be great to have the forecasters/analysts who have done well in previous years with their views and predictions
For instance:
Steen Jacobsen
Gareth Soloway
Henrik Zeberg
David Woo
Thanks a lot!
Im not familiar with Steen but will check him out. Im always looking for new perspectives and Juliette fits that perfectly. She is a tough get!
Smart Lady, great views
Thanks for the comment Bruce and for taking the time to view our content! Who else would you like to see interviewed?
@@BloorStreetCapital I like Chris Vermeulen who is your competition in TO, he seems to be very good with his predictions in Gold movements.
just subscribed and already have a list ot guests: at any chance you have - Mike Green, David Rosenberg, Warren Pies (for energy), Peter Boockvar (commodities), Brian Belski (financials), get Richard Duncan if you reach, also Juliette was very good and she was right two years ago getting bullish on stocks and bonds (well she missed on bonds)
Thank you and great suggestions! I just did an in-person interview w David Rosenberg. We will be editing in the next few days but it is over 1 hour long and we go into detail on many topics. Hit the notification button to be kept up to date. I hope to release it on Feb 1.
I teach finance in Canada, a fan of your interviews, just subscribed. Noticed you asking about who to interview?... how about someone who is more balanced such as Louis Gave.
Love Louis! I just interviewed Louis on my other channel Wealthion. It goes live on Tuesday.
14:15 I think many will be shocked to see the massive inflation brought about by conflict and supply issues. She will wish we had Stagflation.
Im with you. Inflation has been subdued but it has not gone away. I totally agree with Paul Tudor Jones. All roads lead to inflation.
Juliette I’m following you on
X
I'm sure she will appreciate it!
Jesus is the Truth. Hell is real. We all sin. He died on the cross to pay for our sins, was buried and rose again the third day. Put your faith in Him alone to save you, trust in what He did for you
What is your opinion on
Bitcoin?
Good. She has integrity and dares to have a contrary opinion.
How is it possible that so many others, and highly educated economists, can be so wrong? A reading capacity is no substitute for common sense.
Thanks for the comment and for taking the time to view our content! You raise a good point and it reminds of the Fed which has 800 PhDs and it doesn't help them one iota.
Bitcoin Global Incorruptible Digital Payment Platform for Commerce
American comsumer running out of gas.
She should address yield curve control which is coming
I used to invest in Japanese, Chinese, German and UK stock market index funds. All of them lost money. All my investments in US market ETFs made money. I want to be more diversified but the US economy still rules the world.
Yes and millions of others share your view. If you are a PM based in Canada or Europe or Asia you have to be invested in the US or else you’ll be out of a job due to poor performance. No one can touch the growth rates of US tech stocks.
Not sure I agree with the idea of US exceptionalism, they tariff China’s EV’s which are superior, they are a declining empire, lashing out to stay on top. Fact, BRICS have a larger population, larger economy vs the G7 and growing. Does Mexico join the BRICS if US tariff them?? Does Canada grow tired of the erratic orange face and move closer to the BRICS? The US debt is abysmal, is this exceptional? The US dollar will collapse at some point since fiat currency always move to there intrinsic value, which is $0
Yes that term US Exceptionalism. Is being used a lot lately. It’s starting to remind me of the term gaslighting. So overused.
Well said
America 🇺🇸 commercial real estate is plunging and vacancy rates is imploding
Great point and I think this is a potential Black Swan! I have to get someone on who can speak to this. Any suggestions?
America 🇺🇸 infrastructure spending is over 15 years
Sure about that ⁉️💣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤮🤣
So Sainsbury’s firing 2,000 staff is not an indication of a looming recession?😰
Thanks for the comment Tim! I wasn’t aware of those firings. We also have many in Canada and if we enter into a trade war with the US there will be many more.
How can you have a recession in a world with a G7 budget deficit of 6%??
I can’t get that into the equasion and make sense
That is easy 2% growth, probably close to 3% alone on government influence on economy.
In such case the interest rate should be heavily in negative area to counterweight the fiscal tailwind
Plus the money supply has since October 2022 been growing in dollar and euro area.
War time economy almost always has capacity problems rather than degrowth issues
FINALLY someone understands the risk is not inflation but recession. The coming recession will destroy demand and thus inflation (for now). THEN inflation will be a horrid mess.
finally common sense if "equity mkts fall 5-10%...economy will weaken and Fed will have to cut" i stand corrected her shorts r my shorts not bullish on TSLA after the big run
Long Musk, short the economy!
Never heard that one before. But, she made me think about it being possible….especially with Greenland resource possibilities.
Yeh that is a good quote but what happens if Trump and Musk have a falling out.
Excellent!
Thanks Ben!
Making money in stock market in near term has little to do with macro or company fundamentals but liquidity and Fed and both are supportive of staying long Risk until Technical Analysis confirms SPX below 50 week moving average currently 5543
Thanks for the comment Marc and good points! In the short term it’s all animal spirit.
"59 000 inhabitants, which are really poor....so, why not" take over Greenland. What thoroughly distasteful views this person espouses. Not a fan
ua-cam.com/video/2m43i91oeok/v-deo.html
She short the Russell? Good luck to her
4600 S&P she predicted, that's way down
Yeh that’s a 25% pullback form current levels and we haven’t had one of this in a while. She is concerned about jobs numbers but the last Non Farm was a big surprise at 256k versus exp of 155k. Maybe it was a one off but we will see what next month brings.
The FED did not lose control, they did this shit.
The Fed and Biden but mostly Biden. The same thing in Canada. Trudeau has totally destroyed the Canadian economy with idiotic policies.
@@BloorStreetCapital its really the big wall st banks and their eu counterparts isnt it and their secret society handlers. the public figures are fronts for them. the agenda is a kind of slow enslavement of the human race for their negative et handlers....people had better wake up to why disclosure is so all important before this becomes irreversible. one of your canadian defense ministers tried to warn you, paul hellyer...
Shes crazy thinking battwries and silar can power AI and data centers. She thinks American imperialism will fly. LOL
❤
🙏🙏🙏
Clickbait title of the week.
Really? One of my team suggested it but I didn’t think it was extreme enough. Check out the one we will use tomorrow.
@@BloorStreetCapitalthere’s no need for that and will likely cause many viewers to pass on it as another bearish US doomsday prediction video which it is certainly not
WASHINGTON EMPEROR HAS NO CLOTHES 😂
good
You got to be joking if Francis your favorite country
Nope! Love it! What is yours?
This so boring. Worthless vid. Wast of time.
Sorry you didn’t get much out of this. Who would you like to see interviewed?
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