While QE might not directly create consumer price inflation, the overall theft from savers is still achieved by artificially boosting asset prices, assets that are now less affordable by those who still work for a living and save their money in anticipation of future asset purchases. The impact on the effective purchasing power of the currency is the same whether it’s QE or stimulus checks. This has happened everywhere QE has been tried.
100% agreed. I feel that Alf gets lost in the semantics: while what he says is technically true, the reality is that QE lowers long term rates, inflates homes and financial assets, and encourages the investors' animal spirits pushing them up the risk curve. And, most importantly, the low rates excuses governaments to rely on as much deficit spending and fiscal support as they can, and that is indeed inflationary.
Absolutelt love Alf. His strategy just sounds like classic "diworsification" though. Been down that road way too many times and either lost my butt cuz nearly everything correlates together in a crash or lost massively due to underperformance to the S&P 500 . Just buy great companies at good valuations or buy the S&P 500 when its below trend and you'll do much better over the long run. You just have to have patience which no seems to have any more.
I don't know about FED but Alf has no credibility. He has been crying hoarse for doom and recession for last two years. His worst call was ' Soft landing my ass' and saying last June to go long, long duration bonds and short equity. People who believed his 'Macro' nonsense and went long TLT and short SPY must have lost their shirt and more. There is a lot of difference between selling courses or managing other people's money and actually putting your own money into your ideas.
It is true that he was on the doom and gloom camp. Seems like he has changed his views. However, understand that he is a research analyst, not a money manager: his job is not to make market calls, but to explain how the different macro factos tie together so you can make your own calls based on your own interpretations.
@@HectorYague you are right his job his not to make market calls. But he was making market calls all along and in his twitter bio he claims, he was actually managing money ( some billions of dollars). I think his past employer got lucky.
Excellent information here.
Wonderful guest and discussion.
Best wishes from Poland :)
Alf is my macro buddy
That was awesome. The only thing I disagree with Alf is that CPI will go down to 2% next year.
Now ... just need a Carry Trade in 8 categories :)
While QE might not directly create consumer price inflation, the overall theft from savers is still achieved by artificially boosting asset prices, assets that are now less affordable by those who still work for a living and save their money in anticipation of future asset purchases. The impact on the effective purchasing power of the currency is the same whether it’s QE or stimulus checks. This has happened everywhere QE has been tried.
100% agreed. I feel that Alf gets lost in the semantics: while what he says is technically true, the reality is that QE lowers long term rates, inflates homes and financial assets, and encourages the investors' animal spirits pushing them up the risk curve. And, most importantly, the low rates excuses governaments to rely on as much deficit spending and fiscal support as they can, and that is indeed inflationary.
Absolutelt love Alf. His strategy just sounds like classic "diworsification" though. Been down that road way too many times and either lost my butt cuz nearly everything correlates together in a crash or lost massively due to underperformance to the S&P 500 .
Just buy great companies at good valuations or buy the S&P 500 when its below trend and you'll do much better over the long run. You just have to have patience which no seems to have any more.
Wait! When CNBC said yields were going to 13%, you actually believe them?!? CNBC?
Surfs up!
But doesnt QE cause asset inflation?
👌
I don't know about FED but Alf has no credibility. He has been crying hoarse for doom and recession for last two years. His worst call was ' Soft landing my ass' and saying last June to go long, long duration bonds and short equity. People who believed his 'Macro' nonsense and went long TLT and short SPY must have lost their shirt and more. There is a lot of difference between selling courses or managing other people's money and actually putting your own money into your ideas.
It is true that he was on the doom and gloom camp. Seems like he has changed his views. However, understand that he is a research analyst, not a money manager: his job is not to make market calls, but to explain how the different macro factos tie together so you can make your own calls based on your own interpretations.
@@HectorYague you are right his job his not to make market calls. But he was making market calls all along and in his twitter bio he claims, he was actually managing money ( some billions of dollars). I think his past employer got lucky.
😂 this is the guy making wrong recession calls all year. Can’t believe people pay for the services of these broken clocks ⏰