Leigh Orf's Dark Skies Severe Weather Seminar Presentation at Madison College
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- Опубліковано 26 бер 2023
- Notes/errata:
Poquonock / Windsor / Windsor Locks tornado documentary produced by Windsor Community Television: • Windsor Phoenix: Remem...
Madison, WI received a record 1 foot of snowfall the evening preceding the seminar.
8:27: Ted Fujita was, of course, at the University of Chicago, not Colorado (brain glitch)!
10:50 ...and I knew my time had come to enter the delta...
28:10 The presence of an AACP on satellite precedes the occurrence of severe weather by an average of about 30 minutes, something I neglected to mention. This is what makes it a potentially useful short-term forecasting "tool". - Наука та технологія
This is fascinating work. I can't wait to see the incredible results of you and your teams' current work. Cheers!
🤦 how have I been missing your presentations. You always seem to have such stunning info to share and computer models always are hands down the coolest looking stuff. When I heard you say Windsor/Windsor Locks tornado I started scratching my head thinking why does that sound so familiar. Well I was born in March that year in central Connecticut and it's all my parents would reminisce about when I was young and it has always gotten me fascinated with severe weather and tornados. Thanks always for sharing this stuff. You really have some great content.
Thank you for your comments. I talk about it a bit more I think at my previous talk (Steamboat). It's one of those things that's just burned into my memory - like the lightning strike. All this thunderstorm research is really just a dude on a revenge tour (haha).
@@LeighOrfsThunderstormResearch
I absolutely love all the stuff you bring to the table. Thanks again.
I always get lost in these videos. There's just nothing quite like visualization when learning. I think this work would become particularly fascinating at a larger scale. Modelling entire environments to see which atmospheric conditions are more conducive for tornado outbreaks. Which parameters stunt updraft growth, promote long-track violent tornadoes, produce discrete tornadic supercells, etc... Probably need quite a bit more computational power before that unfortunately. Great work as always!
I really am enjoying following your work! Thank you for doing this and making it so the rest of us can view it. I saw an article about the engines on a SR-71 Blackbird and how they produce more thrust in the winter vs. summer. I was reminded of your thoughts on the cold air/inflow leading to tornado genesis and plays an important part on how these things can get massive. Anyway, thank you again for your work!
Another great presentation Leigh! Love your history growing up. I believe you are super close to getting everything together on tornadogenesis. Baby tornadoes I agree can be formed by surface interactions, but the "real" significant tornadoes are the vortices that are able to hook up to the meso and low pressure aloft. Symbiotic flows or hook ups are key for sig tors. Still the heat engine, the main source of pressure falls, is the mesocyclone! What happens below or near and just above ground with friction, the SVC, vorticity mergers, etc are sub interactions of the low levels trying to hook up to the meso aloft. So 2 parts, number 1 is the strong meso, and secondarily are the surface flows that need to be in symbiosis or collocated.
Leigh will be the one that unravels the mysteries of tornadogenesis.
Amazing presentation. I wondered if Reed's footage was helpful to research. Just from an enthusiast's perspective, I find it mesmerizing.
fantastic talk
Leigh, as someone who as surfed for 55 years, I must say, your hydraulic jump is magnificent.
You should try and model a jet engine, because they also create a lot of suction and a mini tornado forms out of it. I bet it's the same process. Also, you should feed all the radar images into an AI and tell it which ones produced tornados and perhaps when done it can accurately predict the percentage of a super cell producing a tornado. We still won't know why but it could accomplish one of your goals from this research. Seeing all the animations and getting an understanding of what tornados look like inside has been incredible, so thanks a lot!
Listening to the closing about putting shelters everywhere... One of our local trailer parks just got rid of their one storm shelter and sent an announcement out to residents telling them to simply make plans ahead of time to find shelter before a storm hits. In a region that has seen numerous tornadoes already this season
That is just terrible to hear. What are they thinking?
Absolutely fascinating. I have followed your work for quite a few years now and it completely changed my view of tornadoes and hydrodynamics.
Thank you so much for all your hard work. Looking forward to future work, data, and hopefully better warning systems
I have worked for 2 decades in IT as a datacenter architect with enterprise grade compute hardware. I really think your research would benefit from a dedicated platform at least as an extension of what you do on shared compute. Weather and tech are two of my passions and I would love to help you design and build some sort of solution for this. It is really within the realm of possibilities to have a system that takes up a rack or two with the power to handle this. I also think being able to have you large datasets live on the same platform would be beneficial, if for anything just saving you time in uploads/downloads. Being able to compare the datasets on the same compute platform would be tremendous. It would also allow easy cross polination of the datasets for experimentation. Having this would greatly accelerate your research I believe. I also know a couple of other people that could contribute with lots of professional experience with this stuff. At minimum it sounds like you could at least need some better solution to store the data when cold.
In any case this is fascinating stuff. Loved the talk.
I have been fascinated by all things related to weather and specifically tornadoes since I was a child and at almost 27 years of age I feel like I want to actually pursue some kind of profession in meteorology but I have no idea where to even start or what end goal I could even have. This stuff is so interesting Leigh even if I understand 1 out every 10 words!
I wasn't sure if people were simulating thunderstorms like this, but one google search later and I really hope to be doing what you're doing in a few years! -Former animation student now meteorology student
Good luck!
Wow your on of the people I most look to. Incredible video! I hope I can see one of your talks before (I am a tornado nerd)
Hello! I hope you're doing well.
Years ago, prior to your UA-cam name change, you recommended to me a paper about two celled tornadoes/how that works, as I'd asked about how on earth tornadoes could have downdrafts in them. However, by the time I had access to journals through the University I studied at, that comment had been removed. (I seem to recall lots of your comments were removed when you changed your name) The only thing I can remember is that the paper seemed to date back to the 70's?
When you have a moment, could you do me a favor and list that paper again? I've been trying to find it for years now with no success and I'm starting to go mad...
Thanks again, and thank you for posting updates on your research on your UA-cam channel! :)
doi.org/10.1146/annurev-fluid-011212-140639
8:00 OK now that is a tragedy.
I have a couple of questions: what role (if any) do you think surface level rear inflow (what Skip Talbot calls "the ghost train") plays in tornadogenesis? Is the rear inflow jet similar to the SVC regarding vorticity? The ghost train is visible in the Reed Timmer footage you show of the Andover tornado and it seems to behave similarly but not identically to the SVC in your model.
I have other questions regarding the svc specifically as well and I wish the QA section was more focused on this incredible work instead of your audience's hunches regarding how they feel tornadoes might form.
The "ghost train" as I see it is responding to the low surface pressure of the tornado itself. You see these organized "inflow jets" - I see them as a consequence of mass conservation. I'm not sure these inflow regions are "causing" anything, they are more the "result" of the sometihng. There is a lot of perspective in supercell research where there is a huge implied causal relationship between events that I argue is completely speculative. Many see "pushing" (RFD blows air) where I see "pulling" (rapidly intensifying mesocyclone causes a huge lateral pressure gradient).
Heck I should do another Q&A session, thanks for reminding me of that :)
Iowa footage from last night-tail cloud/SVC that looks similar to some of your modeling when second funnel powers up:
ua-cam.com/video/BowpUasB-Nw/v-deo.html
Thanks for that, that is some absolutely incredible footage. Definite "gobbling up horizontal vorticity" look on the forward flank.
Hey Leigh, you should watch the movie Nope if you haven't already. It's awesome and you'll know why after you watch it haha.
Holy crap I love Jordan Peele! I will check it out, thanks!
Later: Great movie... very dark but funny.
@@LeighOrfsThunderstormResearch Definitely :) I thought of you because of the tornados and the guy filming getting sucked up, like his work was so important to him that he gladly gave his life for it and then I thought that because the film was exposed at the end that the footage must have made it back down and got developed, so it was worth it. Plus I don't think anyone ever showed what happens after you get abducted :D
@@petergibbons607 I TOTALLY want to inhabit my own stealth cloud. That would RULE.
It's difficult to find an older scientist. They tend to let their untested hypotheses become ossified beliefs. They often become so stuck in their ways that they end up resorting to the same attitudes common in pseudoscience.
There seems to be a cycle that a scientific field can fall into.
1) A generation proposes hypotheses, performs experiments, and discovers breakthroughs.
2) The Discoverers mentor the next generation in formulating a model based on those breakthroughs.
3) The Model brings progress, excitement, funds, and public trust; the Modelmakers take over; and they push the Model.
4) The Modelmakers emotionally invest in the Model, and they come to not want their work superceeded.
5) Enough of the Modelmakers disallow questioning the Model that dogma develops against the Scientific Method.
6) Progress, excitement, funds, and public trust decrease; and the field shrinks in a negative feedback loop of toxic culture.
7) The Modelmakers retire or die, the dogma breaks down, and the field opens back up to the Scientific Method.
8) The field is revitalized as hypotheses are proposed, experiments performed, and breakthroughs discovered.
How can i share my research results with you ?
You need to see the pictures my camera takes .
Google drive? Dropbox?
@@LeighOrfsThunderstormResearch how could I send you pictures ? I built various models that generated images almost identical to your simulation images . You might find these incredibly inspiring .
I have synesthesia so in many ways i guess my brain computes with the ferociousness of an EF5 . My senses are all bundled into a
5in 1 supersense which allows extreme computational speeds . This is not always triggered into full blown Q mode , thank god !
In my efforts to research the dynamics and rootcauses of natural disasters many practical ideas came to mind . Id just like to share them .
Sadly here in Maryland nobody seems to care much about tornado or hurricane research yet .
Maybe you could help me to hook up with people that actually give a damn .
We need major building code changes instead of constructing more feed lots for violent storms .
@@gabrielehanne580 If you want to discuss things via email please contact me here: orf.media/contact
@@LeighOrfsThunderstormResearch thank you .
I will be in touch within the next 24 hours .