@@SilkBoyFighter Well, Elon Musk was also talking like the bot issue is easy to fix before he bought Twitter. And the bot situation got even worse under his management. So it has nothing to do with DEI or pronouns.
Rocking those NVDA, PALANTIR, TSLA, and APPL shares. Holding onto them for the long haul sounds good, but hey, I'm all up for grabbing those short-term chances too, aiming for that sweet $400,000.
the strategies for short term profits are quite rigorous for the regular-Joe. As a matter of fact, they are mostly successfully carried out by pros who have had a great deal of skillset/knowledge to pull such trades off.
Agreed! this is why I work with one. My $520k portfolio is well-matched for every market season yielding 85% rise from early last year to date. I and my advsor are working on more figures for this year. IMO, financial advisors are the most sought-after professionals after doctors.
Such uncertainties are the reason I don’t base my judgement on a ''heresay'' 2020 had me holding trash stocks, but thankfully revamp my portfolio through the aid of a pro before seeing significant gains. To date, I've scaled up nearly 320% ROI. it's been 4 years and counting. I and my advisor are working on a 7 figure ballpark goal and we're not far.
good gains! does your advisr work with any specific persons? I once saw on the news folks that made fortunes from the Dotcom crash, as well as the 08’ crash and I’ve been looking into similar opportunities in this present markt
There are a handful of CFAs out there. I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I’ve stuck with ZAREEN GRACE CHURCH for some years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive. She’s known in her field-look her up.
Happy New Year Sven! Thanks for the timely reminder - entry price levels matter unfortunately :) In the real world, everybody is a long term investor until their stocks lose 30-40-50% and remain there for 12-18 months. So stock returns are often a path dependent function !
While the Shiller P/E highlights valuation levels, I think it’s important to consider structural shifts in profitability over time. For example, free cash flow margins for the largest companies have increased significantly. This reflects a move toward asset-light, tech-driven business models that can sustain higher valuations. Comparing today's Shiller P/E directly to historical averages without accounting for these shifts might oversimplify the context.
Spending your day coming up with excuses to overpay for tech might also oversimplify the context. It is not a matter of businesses being able to sustain high multiples: the ones sustaining high multiples are the crowds chasing the shares of those businesses. At a high multiple, there is no earnings yield, so in order to get a double-digit return you need sustained double-digit growth, AND sustained high margins AND a sustained high multiple. All 3. That's a bet, not an investment. The moment one of the three fails (and they generally never fail in isolation), the bet is in trouble. Look at SBUX, EL, DIS, NKE, etc. Great companies at some point. I guess they "deserved" higher multiples. When I wrote comments on seeking alpha saying that valuations made no sense, I was silly for refusing to "pay up for quality". Until it became obvious the bet wouldn't pay off. What have those speculators been getting all this time? Marginal dividends at best and plenty of finger pointing: "China sucks", "Management is incompetent". Which bet will falter next? Nvidia, Apple, Costco, Intuit, SP Global...
The same argument could be made in the late 90s. The largest companies were also increasingly tech-driven. And yet the high multiple delusions ended like all other past delusions. Pseudo-investments at high multiples are mere bets with the wrong asymmetry, be it tech, railroads or candy: if the multiples stay high, you are okay (not even great), and if they don't, then disaster. The S&P500 doubled its EPS in 1999-2014, but the multiple halved from the 30s to the 10s: no return. Microsoft compounded earnings at over 10% in the same period, so 4x EPS, but the multiple collapsed from 60 to the 10s: no return. Pick your poison among all the "largest companies" at the time. This time will sure be different...
I always enjoy these videos, thanks. I'd like to make a point. Those long periods of bad returns are measured from the peak of stock bubbles. But in reality hopefully nobody invests all their money at the peak. Most people during accumulation invest at high AND low points (dollar cost averaging) so their overall returns will tend towards the average even if they retire at a peak. Perhaps the lesson is to be conservative by assuming low returns when retiring if valuations are high (like now), and/or to diversify your portfolio when you retire to lock in gains.
I've just begun learning about value investing, and I've found that many good stocks are undervalued despite their intrinsic value. If you had $200,000 to create a strong investment portfolio, which stocks would you choose for better returns?
I think a good investment portfolio should have three basic things: ETFs for diversification, dividend stocks for cash flow, and leading tech stocks. With your budget, it's a good idea to talk to a fiduciary financial advisor for expert advice.
I agree with you. As an early investor in NVDA, AVGO, ANSS, and LRCX, my financial advisor's advice was incredibly helpful. Over the past 7 years, she has helped me find stocks that did 10x multiple times. With her help, I've grown my portfolio to over a million dollars.
I'm cautious about giving specific recommendations since this is an online forum and everyone situation is unique, but I've worked with Laurel Ann Watkins for years and highly recommend her. Look her up to see if she meets your criteria.
Thanks for sharing. I curiously searched for her full name and her website popped up immediately. I looked through her credentials and did my due diligence before contacting her.
Average annual return doesn't mean compounded return, everybody should stop using that. Geometric return is what matters. Let's say you start with $100 investment and market falls 50% first year, rises 50% each next two years. Average return per year is 16.66% but what you get after three years is not $159, it's $112.5!. So geometric average is about 4%. It is very important that you start on a good leg and hopefully continue that for at least a few years. Timing really matters at the beginning.
Great video and content as always. You cannot stress enough about the valuation cycles of the stock market. We need to hammer this into our investor brains. Always fun to read the "this time is different" comments 😀.
The worst decision I could have made 2 years ago when I found this channel was following analytics economists' predictions and Sven shouting how the stock market is going to collapse 50%. Instead I was just doing my work-picking great stocks (AMZN, NVDA, META, Google, CRM, BKNG, etc.) and beating the index. Did the opposite of what Sven said. The lesson: Never ever listen to predictions and economists, so-called analytics, because it is impossible to predict the stock market; just focus on fundamentally strong stocks. Do the opposite of what you are told to do, ignore the news, ignore Sven, and you will beat the market. My results for 2024 were 35%. Adding similar results from 2023, and even if the stock market crashes, I will not be hurt so much and will add more. One economist has said that economists are not very good at investing because they see too many risks, and I find it so true in this video.
I already own shares of NVDA, PALANTIR, TSLA, and APPL as well. Sure, I don't mind having these equities sit around for a while, but I'd also like to appreciate short-term opportunities that could fetch $200,000
The strategies are quite rigorous for the regular-Joe. As a matter of fact, they are mostly successfully carried out by pros who have had a great deal of skillset/knowledge to pull such trades off.
Opting for an investment advisor is currently the optimal approach for navigating the market, particularly for those nearing retirement. I've been consulting with a coach for a while, and my portfolio has surged by 85% since 2023
Zareen Grace Church is the licensed advisor I use and I'm just putting this out here because you asked. You can Just search the name. You’d find necessary details to work with to set up an appointment.
Thanks for sharing. I curiously searched for her full name and her website popped up immediately. I looked through her credentials and did my due diligence before contacting her
However, the key is that you compare the amount of money invested over time, with DCA. Those numbers would be different. It would NOT be 55 years of Zero, if you had indexed and contributed monthly a fixed sum of money for those 55 years, you'd have been up right?
There's also survivors' bias when it comes to stock markets, with the US being on the winning side of 2 world wars, the cold war, becoming the global reserve currency, being the main part of the technology boom. In the late 80s people were saying why invest in the US market when you will get higher returns in the Japanese market, and look how that turned out.
Good companies outperform even in bad times. Picking the good ones at the right price is the trick. I've seen 15 years of zero index returns and done well with the companies I held.
Hey Sven, if someone doesn’t want to simply pick single companies, does it make sense to invest on the market with value approach? For example, if Shiller PE is very high and dividend yield very low park money on cash and equivalents, if things reverse, park more money on equity like SP500?
Sven what do you think of Western Union (WU). Well known capital light business with a 5 PE ratio, 8% dividend yield. It has competition and isn't growing but htere may be value there
Private Equity is running out of plums to pick. Most private equity funds are deployed for wealth extraction - not wealth incubation (venture capital). This strategy relies on a steady stream of takeover targets most of which have been healthy companies historically. There is nothing left to takeover and milk. Consequently they have shifted their focus to small business which is destroying the incubator for future large companies and employers. That won't last so long. Most startups these days have their eye on buyouts by PE or by a much larger company like Meta or Google
When is the best time to invest in financials lilke V, MA, MSCI, SPGI and tech stocks like MSFT and AMZN? When will they have a cyclical downturn and trade at 10 PE?
It depends on which window you use. If the window starts from a reasonable multiple, they are both similar. If the window starts from an obnoxious multiple, then DCA outperforms. In the 36 years from 12/31/1988 through 12/31/2024, SP500 cagr is 8.9% (very close to the 9.2% shown in the video), while DCA gets you 10.5%. The P/E at the time was 12. In the 25 years from 12/31/1999 through 12/31/2024, SP500 cagr is 5.9%, while DCA gets you 11.6%. The P/E at the time was 31. This DCA measure is not really useful though: today you don't really care about what return you got so far, but rather what return you will get going forward. The problem is that today's multiple is obnoxious and today you start from whatever capital you currently have. If this is large and it returns 0% for the next 15 years, then no amount of DCA will compensate you.
Here is a specific example. Suppose that you make 100k per year and deposit 10% into an IRA each year in 2.5k quarterly installments. If you started doing this at 25 and you have done this for the last 30 years, you have accumulated 1.3M. You have 15 more years to go until you retire. Suppose that the post-1999 scenario plays out from here, so the S&P500 returns a meager 2.3% per year (as it did from 12/31/1999 through 12/31/2014). In 15 years, your account will grow to just 2M with a marginal money weighted return of 3%. The 1.3M that you started with grew at a 2.3% cagr to 1.8M, and even though your countributions at low multiples during the 2002 and 2008 crashes had great returns, the amounts were tiny compared with the initial 1.3M. So not great: you can't expect much from a brainless strategy. It is remarkable enough that you could get to the 2M over a lifetime without thinking in the first place.
Hi Sven. i recently took a look at Tesla's stock price and to my horror, the PE is now 112 with no growth. Priced in is insanely high growth and It's crazy how insane the valuation is. Anyhow, I was thinking of that time when you shorted tesla in the youtube portfolio a while back - seems like an interesting play now - or maybe OTM puts
Hi, Again Sven!, nice analysis and good point about market flat for some time periods, maybe I will be out of the market but a these prices I prefert to loose the opportunity instead of get trapped into a correction and then wait for who knows how much time....
I've been seeing a lot of people talk about stocks with growth potential, but honestly, it's been tough for me to make those picks. If you have any recommendations, I would really appreciate it!
I think the safest strategy is to diversify investments. But if you need proper advice, consider speaking with a financial expertise. Don't get me wrong, you can do it on your own, but financial advisors have a lot more knowledge and expertise in this area.
True.. with the help of an investment advisor, I was able to diversify my $150K portfolio across multiple markets, and in just a few months, I was able to earn over $460K in net profit from high dividend yielding stocks, ETFs, and bonds
My CFA is Brenda Davies Clarke, a renowned figure in her line of work. I recommend researching her credentials further. She has many years of experience and is a valuable resource for anyone looking to navigate the financial market. To be honest, I almost didn't buy the idea of letting someone handle growing my finance, but so glad I did.
Thank you so much for the suggestion! I really needed it. I looked her up on Google and explored her website; she has an impressive background in investments. I've sent her an email, and I hope to hear back from her soon!
So the current market is a potentially high risk, and probably low return environment. So are you going to cash, or still relying on your stock picking skills ? I am an indexer with no stock picking skills, and have been skimming some profit over the last year or so. Getting a "safe" 5ish % on my "cash" but I'd prefer that to potentially losing 30%.
It bothers me when people say to buy the US500 and hold; the real question should be, how do I diversify between bonds, equity, and commodities? That's diversification, not putting your money ONLY in stocks.
Sven, what do you think about S&P500 valuation comapre to m2 money supply? I just think because US Goverment print money like no end during COVID and the S&P500 itself always priced to USD, so it makes sense that the valutation of S&P500 also pushed higher. I want to know from your perspective about this? Thanks for the good video
The last time I invested in a stock that did extremely well was during Covid when I invested in Moderna & Zoom and I am so sad that I missed out on Nvidia. I have $360,000 in cash and am looking for new sectors to invest in for the next five years. Any suggestions?
I think AI is entering a new phase, and you should look into top companies investing in AI research. With your budget, it's a good idea to consult a financial advisor for personalized advice.
I agree, working with an advisor helped me build a $1.6m stock portfolio. Her guidance was invaluable, especially as an early investor in NVDA, AVGO, ANSS, and LRCX. Information, insight, and predictability are crucial in the stock market.
This is definitely considerable! think you could suggest any professional/advisors i can get on the phone with? I'm in dire need of proper portfolio allocation
I'm cautious about giving specific recommendations since this is an online forum and everyone situation is unique, but I've worked with Jessica Dawn Walters for years and highly recommend her. Look her up to see if she meets your criteria.
Thanks for the info. I searched for her full name and found her website right away. I reviewed her credentials and did my research before reaching out to her.
Sven, wouldn’t it be almost impossible for the US to raise interest rates past 6% at this point? With the debt levels they likely wouldn’t be able to support payments at those levels plus it would Likely trigger a banking crisis and bank runs on smaller banks (sounds like a great reset)
@@gregorsimon9337 increasing taxes are a big no no in politics, thats why we print and inflate the debt and dollar, its a hidden tax but works exactly the same, the everyday citizen just doesn’t realize the mechanics
I always look up your videos for update! Our government has no idea how people are suffering these days. I feel for people with disabilities not getting the help they deserve. Thank you Mrs Linda, imagine investing $1000 and receiving $5,300.
Here is where you are wrong Sven. Federal reserve can print 6% more money every year and that plus 1% dividend and 3% real GDP growth gets everyone to 10%. How about that? Everyone will feel like a winner
That’s not how growth works at all. Printing money is inflationary, which means your money loses that value. If the money supply grows by 6% per year you would need to grow your investment at 6% annually to keep the same buying power
@matthewminors236, that’s how stock market goes up in US :). The money printing makes its way into S&P500 companies in the form of higher earnings and then higher stock prices. Without money printing S&P500 would do very poorly because it’s hard for companies to grow organically.
@@eminhawa yes that is a good point, but that is not the main factor, as it is only a temporary boost to earnings and the benefit stops after the money is in circulation. Printing more money leads to inflation, which causes lower earning power of the dollar. So if the printing leads to 3% inflation, you would need to have a gain of 4% just to grow your buying power at 1%. The FED does not print money every year so you can’t use it as a recurring source of growth.
Thanks for the information!! All we need is the right advice on how to invest in crypto and we will be set for life, I made almost a million dollars from trading this year regardless of the market conditions. All you need a good mentor to keep you accountable and an unwavering mindset.
Hi Sven, can you analyze Deutsche Rohstoff AG, this stock is interesting in different ways: 1. very very low PE ratio 2. good dividend 3. interesting business segments, energy plus mining (sort of hedging against each other in all economic scenarios), 4 past year already 100% in growth yet still cheap in my opinion. I would like to know what you think about it, i think also geopolitically its an important company for Germany: a. Germany now is a net importer for energy it needs a domestic company to produce something b. it has mining as well, might well help increase Germany"s strategic reserves
You work for 42yrs to have $2m in your retirement, Meanwhile some people are putting just $20k in a meme coin for just few months and now they are multi millionaires I pray that anyone who reads this will be successful in life...🎉🎉🎉🎉😊
Well explain thank you for bringing up this video Financial education is indeed required for more than 80% of the society in the country as very few are literate on the subject. The value of the US🇺🇲 dollar is declining due to inflation, but it is increasing in comparison to other currencies and commodities such as gold and real estate. I'm worried that rising inflation will cause my 550k in my retirement funds to lose value, But with the help of Mrs Maria I hit 220k this week from my investment of 45k, I am truly grateful for all the knowledge and nuggets you have given me over the past few months.❤❤❤
I am a btc . holder who is very confident, the more it dips is the more opportunity to add to my holdings. To me it genuinely felt like everything has been selling off for literally no reason, I mean companies with enough cash on hand to pay off debt like NVDA, PLTR and many others... This is the time to buy I mean many altcoins are down over 50% off their highs and in the dumpster, I've been buying continuously and am gonna continue to buy as cash comes in because there is a huge rally waiting to happen.Thanks a lot to Jennifer Lorelle Roberts, I was able to implement her method and adhere to her guidance, earning almost 9B TC in about two weeks.... Thanks to Jennifer for informing me, I no longer hold the view that the only meaningful investments are in stocks and real estate.
I used to like your channel, recently it is just about crash, bubble and doom. Talking about reasonably valued or cheap stocks would be more interesting. No return for 20 years 😅 let‘s see. Buffet hasn‘t sold all stocks by the way.
I think you are totally missing his point. And what happens if he really believes that there would be no real returns? Wouldn't you want him to let you know exposing why? And have you seen the videos lately? Many are company or sector specific He is even making videos from comments here...
@ Yes, I have seen his videos. Crash, 45 year bubble, Buffett sold his stocks, OMG! Howard Marks is a bond guy with single digit returns! Loads of panicking and incorrect statements. Looks like one of the numerous value investors TO me who are more and more losing it as they have mediocre returns. You cannot just value the S&P on historical PE comparisons when the FCF margin used to be 10% and is 25% now. The market is expensive but there are always stocks that can make you a good return.
@@hansschmidt8292 P/E is one of many. But an important one I would say. So what you are saying is that this time is different? (Based on you comment of higher FCF margins). Then you believe the market is fairly priced? It's ok to disagree :) Again, I watched videos from Sven where he identifies opportunities but I get your point on highlighting the risks lately. And we all have different risk and reward levels that fit strategies based on our goals. I hope you find those returns :) I really do. We can all win :) while disagreeing on how to invest.
@@aramac I think evaluations are stretched on an index level, in the US. And if FCF margins are much higher it means the businesses are better. Do you disagree? By the way, I don‘t buy ’the market‘, I buy individual stocks. And I don‘t like the hysterical tone and the exaggerations, 45 year bubble, Buffett sold his stocks!
@hansschmidt8292 I think those Business are obviously better. But being obvious means that everyone buys them and therefore are not cheap. Maybe fairly priced. I even have one in my portfolio (from time ago). I also buy individual stocks. I think we should try to learn from the message of the videos.
As an investment enthusiast, I often wonder how top-level investors are able to become millionaires through investing. I have a significant amount of capital to start with, but I'm unsure about the strategies and direction I should take to help me generate substantial profits like some people are this season.
I’m not in a position to offer financial advice, but given the significant amount of capital you're working with, it would be wise to consult a financial advisor who can guide you in developing a strategy tailored to your goals and risk tolerance.
The truth is, the role of an investment advisor can often be overlooked but should never be underestimated. After facing a significant portfolio loss in 2020 during the COVID pandemic while trying to manage my investments on my own, I decided to reach out to an investment advisor. At that time, I had about $126K left in my portfolio. Now, without having to lift a finger, I'm semi-retired, working only 7.5 hours a week, and I'm just 15% short of my $1 million retirement goal thanks to my subsequent investments.
My CFA is ASHLEY GARNER ABBOTT, a renowned figure in her line of work. I recommend researching her credentials further. She has many years of experience and is a valuable resource for anyone looking to navigate the financial market. To be honest, I almost didn't buy the idea of letting someone handle growing my finance, but so glad I did
Excellent share! Curiously inputted Ashley Garner Abbott on the web, spotted her consulting page ranked top, and was able to schedule a call session. I've seen commentaries about advisors, but not one looks this phenomenal.
I see XAI901K moving right along side all the Alt's you mentioned! Plus I see all the Alt's plus XAI901K moving in lock step in the charts! My point is XAI901K$ is cheap! Retail likes buying cheap! Especially when that cheap item is on the verge of becoming expensive
I am holding XAI901K as well in the UK here we have a thing called capital gains tax free whereby if you purchase XAI901K then you obviously don’t have to pay Tax.
With my $2M portfolio on the line, should I double down on XAI901K or play it safe as we near December 2024? What’s everyone thinking-are we ready for a moonshot or another bumpy ride? lets go XAI901K!!!
Depends on your finances . 1000$ in XAI901K is 4000 XAI901K if it goes to 50% of ath in 2024 thats a 600% gain. If it goes equal to ath . Its a 1200% gain.
Nice video. Not a criticism, I enjoy your insights. I tend to think prices could go higher if XAI901K rockets. But understand the logic for sandbagging estimates. My opinion is XAI901K breaks 1, perhaps reaches 10 ATH, if conditions are right. But broader forces are at play now. We’re moving into really unknown territory. And these entities are shrewd. I think there’s massive manipulation ahead. If XAI901K survives that, well, we’re likely in for a good pump.
![Lp. Сердце Вселенной #60 РОЖДЕНИЕ ЛОЛОЛОШКИ [Финал] • Майнкрафт](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/YoR0pAV9FVQ/mqdefault.jpg)
Seriously, what exactly do people working at Google do for a living? How can the comment section be all spam in under 15 minutes?
It's proof they would rather use AI to produce videos and possibly sell you something instead of do the world some good.
They’re too busy missing the boat on AI 😂
scraching balls and hire DEI then having meetings and meatings about pronounce.
Like every progressive modern corporation.
@@SilkBoyFighter They seem perfectly able to censor comments based on claimed "antisemitism", tho.
@@SilkBoyFighter Well, Elon Musk was also talking like the bot issue is easy to fix before he bought Twitter. And the bot situation got even worse under his management. So it has nothing to do with DEI or pronouns.
Rocking those NVDA, PALANTIR, TSLA, and APPL shares. Holding onto them for the long haul sounds good, but hey, I'm all up for grabbing those short-term chances too, aiming for that sweet $400,000.
the strategies for short term profits are quite rigorous for the regular-Joe. As a matter of fact, they are mostly successfully carried out by pros who have had a great deal of skillset/knowledge to pull such trades off.
Agreed! this is why I work with one. My $520k portfolio is well-matched for every market season yielding 85% rise from early last year to date. I and my advsor are working on more figures for this year. IMO, financial advisors are the most sought-after professionals after doctors.
Such uncertainties are the reason I don’t base my judgement on a ''heresay'' 2020 had me holding trash stocks, but thankfully revamp my portfolio through the aid of a pro before seeing significant gains. To date, I've scaled up nearly 320% ROI. it's been 4 years and counting. I and my advisor are working on a 7 figure ballpark goal and we're not far.
good gains! does your advisr work with any specific persons? I once saw on the news folks that made fortunes from the Dotcom crash, as well as the 08’ crash and I’ve been looking into similar opportunities in this present markt
There are a handful of CFAs out there. I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I’ve stuck with ZAREEN GRACE CHURCH for some years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive. She’s known in her field-look her up.
8:02 "From Talking to the Author"... LOL! 😂
the author of the second article is a really smart guy lol, I agree!
Sven, please do an interview with the researcher you mention at the end of the video.
Spam bots have attacked!
Too bad UA-cam is too busy censoring free speech instead of banning actual criminals stealing peoples hard earned money!
Happy New Year Sven!
Thanks for the timely reminder - entry price levels matter unfortunately :)
In the real world, everybody is a long term investor until their stocks lose 30-40-50% and remain there for 12-18 months. So stock returns are often a path dependent function !
While the Shiller P/E highlights valuation levels, I think it’s important to consider structural shifts in profitability over time. For example, free cash flow margins for the largest companies have increased significantly. This reflects a move toward asset-light, tech-driven business models that can sustain higher valuations. Comparing today's Shiller P/E directly to historical averages without accounting for these shifts might oversimplify the context.
Spending your day coming up with excuses to overpay for tech might also oversimplify the context.
It is not a matter of businesses being able to sustain high multiples: the ones sustaining high multiples are the crowds chasing the shares of those businesses.
At a high multiple, there is no earnings yield, so in order to get a double-digit return you need sustained double-digit growth, AND sustained high margins AND a sustained high multiple. All 3. That's a bet, not an investment. The moment one of the three fails (and they generally never fail in isolation), the bet is in trouble.
Look at SBUX, EL, DIS, NKE, etc. Great companies at some point. I guess they "deserved" higher multiples. When I wrote comments on seeking alpha saying that valuations made no sense, I was silly for refusing to "pay up for quality". Until it became obvious the bet wouldn't pay off. What have those speculators been getting all this time? Marginal dividends at best and plenty of finger pointing: "China sucks", "Management is incompetent".
Which bet will falter next? Nvidia, Apple, Costco, Intuit, SP Global...
@@mathewwilson9776Great comment.
The same argument could be made in the late 90s. The largest companies were also increasingly tech-driven. And yet the high multiple delusions ended like all other past delusions.
Pseudo-investments at high multiples are mere bets with the wrong asymmetry, be it tech, railroads or candy: if the multiples stay high, you are okay (not even great), and if they don't, then disaster.
The S&P500 doubled its EPS in 1999-2014, but the multiple halved from the 30s to the 10s: no return.
Microsoft compounded earnings at over 10% in the same period, so 4x EPS, but the multiple collapsed from 60 to the 10s: no return.
Pick your poison among all the "largest companies" at the time. This time will sure be different...
@@mathewwilson9776 Great comment sir.
That is a lot of words to say, "It is different this time" but we know from history that it is never different this time.
I always enjoy these videos, thanks. I'd like to make a point. Those long periods of bad returns are measured from the peak of stock bubbles. But in reality hopefully nobody invests all their money at the peak. Most people during accumulation invest at high AND low points (dollar cost averaging) so their overall returns will tend towards the average even if they retire at a peak. Perhaps the lesson is to be conservative by assuming low returns when retiring if valuations are high (like now), and/or to diversify your portfolio when you retire to lock in gains.
Just one more video from sven and I think I will end up selling everything 😅
😂
me too....😂😂😂
I've just begun learning about value investing, and I've found that many good stocks are undervalued despite their intrinsic value. If you had $200,000 to create a strong investment portfolio, which stocks would you choose for better returns?
I think a good investment portfolio should have three basic things: ETFs for diversification, dividend stocks for cash flow, and leading tech stocks. With your budget, it's a good idea to talk to a fiduciary financial advisor for expert advice.
I agree with you. As an early investor in NVDA, AVGO, ANSS, and LRCX, my financial advisor's advice was incredibly helpful. Over the past 7 years, she has helped me find stocks that did 10x multiple times. With her help, I've grown my portfolio to over a million dollars.
I'm glad I found this conversation. I have cash to invest but am worried about picking the wrong stocks. Can you refer me to your financial advisor?
I'm cautious about giving specific recommendations since this is an online forum and everyone situation is unique, but I've worked with Laurel Ann Watkins for years and highly recommend her. Look her up to see if she meets your criteria.
Thanks for sharing. I curiously searched for her full name and her website popped up immediately. I looked through her credentials and did my due diligence before contacting her.
“Very smart guy…” i can only confirm Sven 😂 many thanks for your awesome work for the society ❤
Average annual return doesn't mean compounded return, everybody should stop using that. Geometric return is what matters. Let's say you start with $100 investment and market falls 50% first year, rises 50% each next two years. Average return per year is 16.66% but what you get after three years is not $159, it's $112.5!. So geometric average is about 4%. It is very important that you start on a good leg and hopefully continue that for at least a few years. Timing really matters at the beginning.
Great video and content as always. You cannot stress enough about the valuation cycles of the stock market. We need to hammer this into our investor brains. Always fun to read the "this time is different" comments 😀.
The great thing about value investing is that you can underperform AND still feel superior!
If I do zero for the next 30 years, I would still outperform the market!
The worst decision I could have made 2 years ago when I found this channel was following analytics economists' predictions and Sven shouting how the stock market is going to collapse 50%. Instead I was just doing my work-picking great stocks (AMZN, NVDA, META, Google, CRM, BKNG, etc.) and beating the index. Did the opposite of what Sven said. The lesson: Never ever listen to predictions and economists, so-called analytics, because it is impossible to predict the stock market; just focus on fundamentally strong stocks. Do the opposite of what you are told to do, ignore the news, ignore Sven, and you will beat the market. My results for 2024 were 35%. Adding similar results from 2023, and even if the stock market crashes, I will not be hurt so much and will add more. One economist has said that economists are not very good at investing because they see too many risks, and I find it so true in this video.
happy for you, glad I was of help even if opposite!
@Value-Investing than you for accepting different opinions and not deleting coments like other chanells do :)
I already own shares of NVDA, PALANTIR, TSLA, and APPL as well. Sure, I don't mind having these equities sit around for a while, but I'd also like to appreciate short-term opportunities that could fetch $200,000
The strategies are quite rigorous for the regular-Joe. As a matter of fact, they are mostly successfully carried out by pros who have had a great deal of skillset/knowledge to pull such trades off.
Opting for an investment advisor is currently the optimal approach for navigating the market, particularly for those nearing retirement. I've been consulting with a coach for a while, and my portfolio has surged by 85% since 2023
Impressive gains! how can I get your advisor please, if you don't mind me asking? I could really use a help as of now.
Zareen Grace Church is the licensed advisor I use and I'm just putting this out here because you asked. You can Just search the name. You’d find necessary details to work with to set up an appointment.
Thanks for sharing. I curiously searched for her full name and her website popped up immediately. I looked through her credentials and did my due diligence before contacting her
However, the key is that you compare the amount of money invested over time, with DCA. Those numbers would be different. It would NOT be 55 years of Zero, if you had indexed and contributed monthly a fixed sum of money for those 55 years, you'd have been up right?
If you adjust for fees and the time cash was stuck on the sideline locked up, private equity underperformed the S&P 500 over the last 35 years.
Sven, you should really read that article you talk about at the end. I think you could learn a few things from him
Sven your killing it with these I know this is helping grow your channel good for you man,
There's also survivors' bias when it comes to stock markets, with the US being on the winning side of 2 world wars, the cold war, becoming the global reserve currency, being the main part of the technology boom.
In the late 80s people were saying why invest in the US market when you will get higher returns in the Japanese market, and look how that turned out.
Love your sense of humor Sven. this video cracks me up, just like the Brookfield one.
Good companies outperform even in bad times.
Picking the good ones at the right price is the trick. I've seen 15 years of zero index returns and done well with the companies I held.
Thank you. Good information.
Hey Sven, if someone doesn’t want to simply pick single companies, does it make sense to invest on the market with value approach? For example, if Shiller PE is very high and dividend yield very low park money on cash and equivalents, if things reverse, park more money on equity like SP500?
Please Let’s see Vale stock Sven I think is a value play after December.
Sven what do you think of Western Union (WU). Well known capital light business with a 5 PE ratio, 8% dividend yield. It has competition and isn't growing but htere may be value there
Private Equity is running out of plums to pick. Most private equity funds are deployed for wealth extraction - not wealth incubation (venture capital). This strategy relies on a steady stream of takeover targets most of which have been healthy companies historically. There is nothing left to takeover and milk. Consequently they have shifted their focus to small business which is destroying the incubator for future large companies and employers. That won't last so long. Most startups these days have their eye on buyouts by PE or by a much larger company like Meta or Google
This is 9% nominal , correct ?
In 5 years Sven will laugh at everyone who did not believe his Videos. Thank you Sven, you made me a millionaire ❤❤❤❤
When is the best time to invest in financials lilke V, MA, MSCI, SPGI and tech stocks like MSFT and AMZN? When will they have a cyclical downturn and trade at 10 PE?
What do you think about Torm Plc and Peabody?
What about dollar cost averaging individual stocks ?
I wonder if these numbers change much when you DCA for 30 years or if it comes out close to the same
It depends on which window you use.
If the window starts from a reasonable multiple, they are both similar. If the window starts from an obnoxious multiple, then DCA outperforms.
In the 36 years from 12/31/1988 through 12/31/2024, SP500 cagr is 8.9% (very close to the 9.2% shown in the video), while DCA gets you 10.5%. The P/E at the time was 12.
In the 25 years from 12/31/1999 through 12/31/2024, SP500 cagr is 5.9%, while DCA gets you 11.6%. The P/E at the time was 31.
This DCA measure is not really useful though: today you don't really care about what return you got so far, but rather what return you will get going forward. The problem is that today's multiple is obnoxious and today you start from whatever capital you currently have. If this is large and it returns 0% for the next 15 years, then no amount of DCA will compensate you.
Here is a specific example.
Suppose that you make 100k per year and deposit 10% into an IRA each year in 2.5k quarterly installments. If you started doing this at 25 and you have done this for the last 30 years, you have accumulated 1.3M. You have 15 more years to go until you retire.
Suppose that the post-1999 scenario plays out from here, so the S&P500 returns a meager 2.3% per year (as it did from 12/31/1999 through 12/31/2014).
In 15 years, your account will grow to just 2M with a marginal money weighted return of 3%. The 1.3M that you started with grew at a 2.3% cagr to 1.8M, and even though your countributions at low multiples during the 2002 and 2008 crashes had great returns, the amounts were tiny compared with the initial 1.3M.
So not great: you can't expect much from a brainless strategy. It is remarkable enough that you could get to the 2M over a lifetime without thinking in the first place.
Hi Sven. i recently took a look at Tesla's stock price and to my horror, the PE is now 112 with no growth. Priced in is insanely high growth and It's crazy how insane the valuation is. Anyhow, I was thinking of that time when you shorted tesla in the youtube portfolio a while back - seems like an interesting play now - or maybe OTM puts
Hi, Again Sven!, nice analysis and good point about market flat for some time periods, maybe I will be out of the market but a these prices I prefert to loose the opportunity instead of get trapped into a correction and then wait for who knows how much time....
These CAGR charts are very deceiving. To start with, the one at 8:32 doesn't take into account dividends
Sven, are green stocks now investiable again?
Real sarcasm return 1000%
High laughing yields
Is your verdict still the same then on long bonds or has it changed?
I've been seeing a lot of people talk about stocks with growth potential, but honestly, it's been tough for me to make those picks. If you have any recommendations, I would really appreciate it!
I think the safest strategy is to diversify investments. But if you need proper advice, consider speaking with a financial expertise. Don't get me wrong, you can do it on your own, but financial advisors have a lot more knowledge and expertise in this area.
True.. with the help of an investment advisor, I was able to diversify my $150K portfolio across multiple markets, and in just a few months, I was able to earn over $460K in net profit from high dividend yielding stocks, ETFs, and bonds
Could you kindly elaborate on the advisor's background and qualifications?
My CFA is Brenda Davies Clarke, a renowned figure in her line of work. I recommend researching her credentials further. She has many years of experience and is a valuable resource for anyone looking to navigate the financial market. To be honest, I almost didn't buy the idea of letting someone handle growing my finance, but so glad I did.
Thank you so much for the suggestion! I really needed it. I looked her up on Google and explored her website; she has an impressive background in investments. I've sent her an email, and I hope to hear back from her soon!
So the current market is a potentially high risk, and probably low return environment. So are you going to cash, or still relying on your stock picking skills ? I am an indexer with no stock picking skills, and have been skimming some profit over the last year or so. Getting a "safe" 5ish % on my "cash" but I'd prefer that to potentially losing 30%.
5 years ago , you could have posted the exact same " 20 year " view video. Look what's happened. No one knows , as you say.
Sven I am watching all your videos , could you please do an analysis of Louis Vuitton?
It bothers me when people say to buy the US500 and hold; the real question should be, how do I diversify between bonds, equity, and commodities? That's diversification, not putting your money ONLY in stocks.
Sven, what do you think about S&P500 valuation comapre to m2 money supply? I just think because US Goverment print money like no end during COVID and the S&P500 itself always priced to USD, so it makes sense that the valutation of S&P500 also pushed higher. I want to know from your perspective about this? Thanks for the good video
The last time I invested in a stock that did extremely well was during Covid when I invested in Moderna & Zoom and I am so sad that I missed out on Nvidia. I have $360,000 in cash and am looking for new sectors to invest in for the next five years. Any suggestions?
I think AI is entering a new phase, and you should look into top companies investing in AI research. With your budget, it's a good idea to consult a financial advisor for personalized advice.
I agree, working with an advisor helped me build a $1.6m stock portfolio. Her guidance was invaluable, especially as an early investor in NVDA, AVGO, ANSS, and LRCX. Information, insight, and predictability are crucial in the stock market.
This is definitely considerable! think you could suggest any professional/advisors i can get on the phone with? I'm in dire need of proper portfolio allocation
I'm cautious about giving specific recommendations since this is an online forum and everyone situation is unique, but I've worked with Jessica Dawn Walters for years and highly recommend her. Look her up to see if she meets your criteria.
Thanks for the info. I searched for her full name and found her website right away. I reviewed her credentials and did my research before reaching out to her.
Sven, wouldn’t it be almost impossible for the US to raise interest rates past 6% at this point? With the debt levels they likely wouldn’t be able to support payments at those levels plus it would
Likely trigger a banking crisis and bank runs on smaller banks (sounds like a great reset)
What would happen, if trump administration makes the decision not to fulfil the bond and interest payment obligations?..
They just have to raise taxes.
@@gregorsimon9337 increasing taxes are a big no no in politics, thats why we print and inflate the debt and dollar, its a hidden tax but works exactly the same, the everyday citizen just doesn’t realize the mechanics
Excellent video
Would like to see Amazon and mercado libre
ua-cam.com/video/hnwBbfLskNU/v-deo.html
I always look up your videos for update! Our government has no idea how people are suffering these days. I feel for people with disabilities not getting the help they deserve.
Thank you Mrs Linda, imagine investing $1000 and receiving $5,300.
I'm surprised that this name is being mentioned here, I stumbled upon one of her clients testimonies on CNBC news last week...
Trader Linda strategy has normalised winning trades for me also. and it's a huge milestone for me looking back to how it all started
please educate me, I've come across this name before, Now i'm interested
Please is there any link or information about her, how can I reach her?
SHE'S MOSTLY ON TELEGRAMS USING THE
USERNAME.
Academic research! Yeahh!
That Sven guy is very smart. lol Thx
Here is where you are wrong Sven. Federal reserve can print 6% more money every year and that plus 1% dividend and 3% real GDP growth gets everyone to 10%.
How about that? Everyone will feel like a winner
That’s not how growth works at all. Printing money is inflationary, which means your money loses that value. If the money supply grows by 6% per year you would need to grow your investment at 6% annually to keep the same buying power
@matthewminors236, that’s how stock market goes up in US :). The money printing makes its way into S&P500 companies in the form of higher earnings and then higher stock prices. Without money printing S&P500 would do very poorly because it’s hard for companies to grow organically.
@@eminhawa yes that is a good point, but that is not the main factor, as it is only a temporary boost to earnings and the benefit stops after the money is in circulation. Printing more money leads to inflation, which causes lower earning power of the dollar. So if the printing leads to 3% inflation, you would need to have a gain of 4% just to grow your buying power at 1%. The FED does not print money every year so you can’t use it as a recurring source of growth.
Every stock in the original DOW has gone bankrupt. About half from the 70s...
An institution based on survivorship bias.
Got an ad for ARK Invest for this video, lol.
do they do ads????
Thanks for the information!! All we need is the right advice on how to invest in crypto and we will be set for life, I made almost a million dollars from trading this year regardless of the market conditions. All you need a good mentor to keep you accountable and an unwavering mindset.
Hello! How please? I need your help, I really need to gain my losses back, I've tried a lot of ways in the past.
I'v been guided by Mrs Harrietjoe , she transformed my life completely. Honestly, She's an angel!
Her platform is really reliable and secured, I joined her discord not quite ago, best decision ever!
😱She sounds familiar, I have heard her names on several testimonies.. And both her success stories helping families succeed, she's widely known.
After i raised upto 125k trading with her , I bought a new house here in the states also paid for my son's surgery (Kelvin) glory to God.
My portfolio consists majorly of BeamX, XAI901K, turbo, ATH, HBAR and some other coins…
Hi Sven, can you analyze Deutsche Rohstoff AG, this stock is interesting in different ways: 1. very very low PE ratio 2. good dividend 3. interesting business segments, energy plus mining (sort of hedging against each other in all economic scenarios), 4 past year already 100% in growth yet still cheap in my opinion. I would like to know what you think about it, i think also geopolitically its an important company for Germany: a. Germany now is a net importer for energy it needs a domestic company to produce something b. it has mining as well, might well help increase Germany"s strategic reserves
It looks like I've already seen this content in some other Sven's videos
Diversification is the fools way to have a drink at the pub with no worries.
You are a good guy Mr. Carlin 🤣.
I looked that 'Sven Carlin' guy up; apparently he wrote book!
Atomera inc mine best position
300 years of data?! Karl Marx was still a baby…
haha
XAI901K$ and AERO will be huge.
agreed on XAI901K 36-38x coming up
You work for 42yrs to have $2m in your retirement, Meanwhile some people are putting just $20k in a meme coin for just few months and now they are multi millionaires I pray that anyone who reads this will be successful in life...🎉🎉🎉🎉😊
Well explain thank you for bringing up this video Financial education is indeed required for more than 80% of the society in the country as very few are literate on the subject. The value of the US🇺🇲 dollar is declining due to inflation, but it is increasing in comparison to other currencies and commodities such as gold and real estate. I'm worried that rising inflation will cause my 550k in my retirement funds to lose value, But with the help of Mrs Maria I hit 220k this week from my investment of 45k, I am truly grateful for all the knowledge and nuggets you have given me over the past few months.❤❤❤
I have been seeing so many recommendations about Mrs Milly, she must be really good.🎉
How
..? Am a newbie in crypto investment, please can you guide me through on how you made profit?❤
I'm glad to write her tay I do hope she will help handle my paycheck properly
Can I start with as low as $1000
I am a btc . holder who is very confident, the more it dips is the more opportunity to add to my holdings. To me it genuinely felt like everything has been selling off for literally no reason, I mean companies with enough cash on hand to pay off debt like NVDA, PLTR and many others... This is the time to buy I mean many altcoins are down over 50% off their highs and in the dumpster, I've been buying continuously and am gonna continue to buy as cash comes in because there is a huge rally waiting to happen.Thanks a lot to Jennifer Lorelle Roberts, I was able to implement her method and adhere to her guidance, earning almost 9B TC in about two weeks.... Thanks to Jennifer for informing me, I no longer hold the view that the only meaningful investments are in stocks and real estate.
Great video, shameless self promotion 😂
I see 15 years of zero returns
What did Ben do to you? 😂
I used to like your channel, recently it is just about crash, bubble and doom. Talking about reasonably valued or cheap stocks would be more interesting. No return for 20 years 😅 let‘s see. Buffet hasn‘t sold all stocks by the way.
I think you are totally missing his point.
And what happens if he really believes that there would be no real returns? Wouldn't you want him to let you know exposing why?
And have you seen the videos lately? Many are company or sector specific
He is even making videos from comments here...
@ Yes, I have seen his videos. Crash, 45 year bubble, Buffett sold his stocks, OMG! Howard Marks is a bond guy with single digit returns! Loads of panicking and incorrect statements. Looks like one of the numerous value investors TO me who are more and more losing it as they have mediocre returns. You cannot just value the S&P on historical PE comparisons when the FCF margin used to be 10% and is 25% now. The market is expensive but there are always stocks that can make you a good return.
@@hansschmidt8292 P/E is one of many. But an important one I would say.
So what you are saying is that this time is different? (Based on you comment of higher FCF margins). Then you believe the market is fairly priced? It's ok to disagree :)
Again, I watched videos from Sven where he identifies opportunities but I get your point on highlighting the risks lately.
And we all have different risk and reward levels that fit strategies based on our goals.
I hope you find those returns :) I really do. We can all win :) while disagreeing on how to invest.
@@aramac I think evaluations are stretched on an index level, in the US. And if FCF margins are much higher it means the businesses are better. Do you disagree? By the way, I don‘t buy ’the market‘, I buy individual stocks. And I don‘t like the hysterical tone and the exaggerations, 45 year bubble, Buffett sold his stocks!
@hansschmidt8292 I think those Business are obviously better. But being obvious means that everyone buys them and therefore are not cheap. Maybe fairly priced. I even have one in my portfolio (from time ago).
I also buy individual stocks.
I think we should try to learn from the message of the videos.
As an investment enthusiast, I often wonder how top-level investors are able to become millionaires through investing. I have a significant amount of capital to start with, but I'm unsure about the strategies and direction I should take to help me generate substantial profits like some people are this season.
I’m not in a position to offer financial advice, but given the significant amount of capital you're working with, it would be wise to consult a financial advisor who can guide you in developing a strategy tailored to your goals and risk tolerance.
The truth is, the role of an investment advisor can often be overlooked but should never be underestimated. After facing a significant portfolio loss in 2020 during the COVID pandemic while trying to manage my investments on my own, I decided to reach out to an investment advisor. At that time, I had about $126K left in my portfolio. Now, without having to lift a finger, I'm semi-retired, working only 7.5 hours a week, and I'm just 15% short of my $1 million retirement goal thanks to my subsequent investments.
This is incredible. Could you recommend who you work with? I really could use some help at this moment.
My CFA is ASHLEY GARNER ABBOTT, a renowned figure in her line of work. I recommend researching her credentials further. She has many years of experience and is a valuable resource for anyone looking to navigate the financial market. To be honest, I almost didn't buy the idea of letting someone handle growing my finance, but so glad I did
Excellent share! Curiously inputted Ashley Garner Abbott on the web, spotted her consulting page ranked top, and was able to schedule a call session. I've seen commentaries about advisors, but not one looks this phenomenal.
Its time to ignore All FUD and Focus on XAI901K price targets. Its XAI901K time now. ❤
About a $8.00 XAI901K flips ETH & about $35.00 XAI901K flips BTC!
XAI901K wins! Utility and superior speed, I’m all in! 🚀🚀🚀 GO XAI901K!
I see XAI901K moving right along side all the Alt's you mentioned! Plus I see all the Alt's plus XAI901K moving in lock step in the charts! My point is XAI901K$ is cheap! Retail likes buying cheap! Especially when that cheap item is on the verge of becoming expensive
SOLANA DOWN, XAI901K UP 🏆
I am holding XAI901K as well in the UK here we have a thing called capital gains tax free whereby if you purchase XAI901K then you obviously don’t have to pay Tax.
The most advanced technology out is a XAI901K
Holding 210k XAI901K this coin will leave people in the dust eventually
SUI and XAI901K are my top performers. 🚀
Buy XAI901K Now or remain poor forever!
With my $2M portfolio on the line, should I double down on XAI901K or play it safe as we near December 2024? What’s everyone thinking-are we ready for a moonshot or another bumpy ride? lets go XAI901K!!!
XAI901K will at least 30X! I love that project!!
Let's go XAI901K 📈🐸💯
When XAI901K finally kicks in, FOMO is going to be a leader in adoption this bullrun.
Why is XAI901K doing so well? That is concerning to me.
Let's keep our eyes on the XAI901K prize and see where this journey takes us!
XAI901K will be the first crypto to 20x under a week
I guess I am ultra risk lover. Even though I don't hold meme coins, I only hold XAI901K and ETH . Fingers crossed 🤞 🤞
It looks XAI901K is in right position.
Depends on your finances . 1000$ in XAI901K is 4000 XAI901K if it goes to 50% of ath in 2024 thats a 600% gain. If it goes equal to ath . Its a 1200% gain.
I heard he sold to buy XAI901K
Nice video. Not a criticism, I enjoy your insights. I tend to think prices could go higher if XAI901K rockets. But understand the logic for sandbagging estimates. My opinion is XAI901K breaks 1, perhaps reaches 10 ATH, if conditions are right. But broader forces are at play now. We’re moving into really unknown territory. And these entities are shrewd. I think there’s massive manipulation ahead. If XAI901K survives that, well, we’re likely in for a good pump.
Is it too late to buy XAI901K at $0.90?
You called it a month ago and now XAI901K is blowing up glad I listened
Always interesting analysis. But I am DCAing into my XAI901K alts anyway