Forecast Discussion - April 1, 2024 - Widespread, Intense Severe Weather Event Begins Today
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- Опубліковано 11 чер 2024
- For educational purposes only. If you live in the affected areas, please stay tuned to your local National Weather Service office for the most accurate and up-to-date information.
11:30 AM CDT UPDATE: SPC has upgraded to Moderate Risk (level 4/5) across Oklahoma and far north Texas thanks to increased confidence in supercells producing large to giant hail in this corridor. The strong tornado risk has also been extended southward into southern Oklahoma.
A multi-day severe weather event is set to begin today across a broad region from the Midwest to the southern Plains. Here, the SPC has outlined large Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) for today (Monday, April 1). A complex convective evolution is expected with multiple rounds and potential areas of severe weather from this afternoon into the overnight hours. Initial supercells should fire along the dryline and warm front with a large to giant hail threat this afternoon. The tornado threat may increase closer to sunset and after, first across southern Oklahoma and then spreading northeast with time as the low-level jet ramps up nocturnally. Any discrete supercells that remain may yield a strong tornado threat. As mentioned in this morning's outlook, we may see a hail-driven upgrade to Moderate Risk in subsequent outlooks if confidence in storm coverage/intensity increases.
The threat shifts east tomorrow; the SPC has outlined another Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) from Kentucky into Tennessee. This may be expanded north in future outlooks, but for now, the Enhanced Risk area highlights where the greatest threat for tornadoes and damaging wind appears to be. I plan on posting another forecast discussion tomorrow morning once we have a little more clarity in the progression of the pertinent features.
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Contents
0:00 Introduction, breakdown of threat areas
4:42 Current observations
15:28 Model analysis of today's setup
40:12 Brief discussion of tomorrow's setup
46:16 Wrap-up - Наука та технологія
11:30 AM CDT UPDATE: SPC has upgraded to Moderate Risk (level 4/5) across Oklahoma and far north Texas thanks to increased confidence in supercells producing large to giant hail in this corridor. The strong tornado risk has also been extended southward into southern Oklahoma.
SPC has also upgraded tomorrow's risk to a Moderate (level 4/5) centered on Ohio given increasing confidence in strong/long-track tornadoes. Some concerns still remain over destabilization and storm mode, but the potential for all significant hazards is on the table.
Lightning fast comment
I kinda knew it was coming given the morning data, so I had it all ready to go@@ac7666
Thank you so much for all of your information! My family is out there in the black hatches and knowing what to tell them is thanks to you
@@ConvectiveChronicles Yeah, I suppose XD
update it again, theres now a moderate next day
Reed shouted you out yesterday, pretty awesome, keep it up!
Gotta say, the hrrr 12z for tomorrow is the most impressive run I have seen in months! Great video!
Could honestly be historic if it confirms. Been a really long time for Central Ohio. 2 weeks ago was extremely anomalous, and will seem pathetic compared to Tuesday.
Thank you, Trey. Keep up the good work, man. And congrats on the Reed shoutout yesterday. You definitely deserve more of that.
Thank you!!
I was bored at work this morning and pulled a NAM sounding from the triple point at 00Z and holy crap was that a unit of a hodograph. 3300j/kg of MLCAPE and a hodograph that is strongly curved. It's no small wonder why they went with a 10hatched area for strong tornadoes today.
Oklahkam got jealous that Missouri had a 10% hatched risk for tornadoes yesterday, so Oklahoma decided to get one too.
Don’t forget us in southeast Kansas, and a few of those Arkansawyers too!
Illinois sends its regards
And when Oklahoma decides to get angry weather? it really does. Please stay safe peeps.
Hey Trey, guys here!
As always, thanks for the good info
48 minutes of Convective Chronicles analysis and it’s not an April Fools joke? Must be a holiday!
This season is really starting to get going. Thanks for the update Trey!
Great video man, very helpful! This community is lucky to have you trey!
Thank you so much!
Whenever it’s a potential tornado outbreak or significant event this is the first place I go! Great job as always! 👍🏻
Thank you!!
Good luck today and stay safe everyone; chasers, spotters and residents in the risk area.
Been waiting all moring for this. Thank you for your dedication to this content
Hey Trey. Great update as always. Damn that low level jet cranked up tornado potential for today and tommorrow with 15% sig in Columbus area...Wow.
In last 24h models showed few scenarios of this event from low tornado potential to medium to low again and nothing and right now they are looking sweet and better in each update. April is starting with a big BANG🌪⚡
Wish you and everybody in field great and safe chase.
I hope that we will see some beautiful SC structures and tornadoes and they avoid impacting communities and properties.
Thank you! Yeah, this is looking like a beast of a setup. Hoping the tornadoes will stay out of major population centers.
Cheers Trey. Be Safe Today!
Large to GIANT hail. The second scariest weather to LONG TRACK TORNADO in my opinion. A million cannonballs falling on you at once is horrific.
Thank you Trey!
Found your channel thru Reed’s twitter. Great video!
Thank you!
So strange it went from 10% then back to 5% when they mentioned a weak tornado possible, then somehow back to 10%
They mention the shear and stuff getting stronger in to the evening
It's a really complex setup; I think the 10 hatched is for the threat of nocturnal tornadoes as the LLJ really ramps up.
@@ConvectiveChronicleswhy Oklahoma though?
The LLJ ramps up closer to sunset@@ctdkmd
You said “red sharpie” haha that’s another one I love. Add it to the list with “robust” and “flies in the ointment”
Severe weather is starting to really ramp up. Back to back moderate risks haven’t happened in a while.
Now I have to wait for Aaron Tuttle to put out some info! Thank you for the heads up
WOOO!! Another Weather Analysis Vid!!
Living here is like having a gun pointed in your face every day by the weather and the people as well. I need a hard hat for all this hail.
Haha that's one way to put it...yeah, hail should be pretty large today
I love your vids. Even when you go into soundings and stuff, you word it nicely so i feel like i understand it
Thank you so much!
Annnnnd we have the jump from marginal straight to moderate for parts of central/northern OH on the Day 2 update, lol.
Crazy…I didn’t expect them to be that aggressive but I can certainly see why
My work called off for the storms on Wednesday up here in Cincy. This will be interesting.
As as I finishing your video SPC has upgraded to a Moderate Risk for the areas you've pointed. just 5 minutes ago, massive hail a-coming!
My imaginary target is the southern mode/near the red river. I’m really liking the look of those discrete cells especially on CAMs… Once the LLJ kicks in I think there’s a good chance of some tornadoes.
I agree! Targeting there for my chase today
Thanks Trey I always look forward to your forecasts! Not liking that 10% hatched area.
I just remembered that this is happening around the 50 year anniversary of the Super Outbreak of 1974. Let's hope for the best.
Here in kennedale tx (just to the southeast of fort worth in tarrant county) it is 73°F, dewpoint between 67-68°, winds sse at 16mph and cloudy as of 10:26am ct.
I’m a few miles east of St Louis. It’s been cloudy all day and barely a breeze to be felt. Feels weird after the winds the past couple of days.
This one must be driving the forecasters nuts trying to keep fine tuning things. I’m going to hope for the best (rain but no nasty stuff) but keep an eye on the SPC & NWS St Louis.
No question; this setup is incredibly complex with multiple areas likely to see significant severe…it’s been a very tricky one to forecast.
36:52 Whenever I see parameters like this + a messy storm mode for the Joplin area...I just really hope it doesn't end up like that somewhat messy constructive interference which led to the infamous EF-5. Probably less likely today, but definitely I got lots of empathy for the concerns of folks down that way!
Will be staging in Paul’s Valley. Hope to see you out there!
Heading down toward the Ardmore area in a bit. Good luck and be safe today!
@@ConvectiveChronicles you as well thank you!
Going chasing, today! Hoping for pretty tornadoes in an open field causing no harm. Also hopeful that my windshield survives today!
Good luck and be safe!
Great video Trey thanks for your thoughts on this
Thank you!
@@ConvectiveChroniclesI was wondering if we could get a moderate risk upgrade before the event this morning but it seems unlikely at this point
They did mention a possible hail-driven upgrade in subsequent outlooks; we'll see what they do with this 11:30am outlook@@LeviW133
Yeah I just read it just as they upgraded lol@@ConvectiveChronicles
I live in Barberton, Ohio. SW of Akron. A level 1 to level 4 in one update is INSANE. Either the models are honing in on Ohio or the atmosphere is just that favorable for significant weather.
Honestly, both…things are shaping up rapidly
Could you make the case that if we were dealing with a stronger low level response, we'd be facing the potential for a tornado outbreak?
Absolutely
Given the 11:30 AM update, I actually wonder if the storms between Austin & Waco (maybe San Antonio?) will remain discrete enough with just enough low-level jet for it to be a sneaky threat there. Also, I wonder if OKC proper will get something strong-to-violent, as well as Tulsa to Joplin. And I wonder if something underrated will happen between Evansville/Owensboro to Cincinnati/Louisville.
The storm mode should be fairly discrete down into TX, but with a bit less shear and forcing (and more capping) with southern extent, hail should still remain the greatest threat.
Tornado/Severe Storm season already starting out with a Moderate and a Enhanced risk back to back.
Hope everyone stay vigilant throughout the day.
Nevermind, now there's currently 2 moderates back to back!
Do you think theyll go moderate in easter missouri/ southern illinois?
If any moderate risk upgrade occurs, it will be for hail.
@@ConvectiveChronicles so the tornado risk wont go any higher?
I really think were gonna see a bonified tornado outbreak here in Ohio Tuesday. Its been a Long time since Central Ohio has seen conditions this crazy. If the Low continues to uptrend then it may be a rare high risk. Crowded atmosphere is possibly the one thing that may bust it or keep a bad tornado outbreak from occurring. Gonna be very interesting.
45:49 what do you think about East Tennessee specifically Greene county people here haven’t recovered mentally from april 27th 2011 when camp creek had an ef-3 kill 6 people at night and 2 more in horse creek it really changed the local community and with how many new people have moved in the same area I’m really concerned that if another happens just a ef2 or 3 the death toll could be in the 30s 40s it’s all mobile homes
Best advice is to be prepared for all severe hazards; still a bit of uncertainty in tomorrow’s threat. We’ll know more tomorrow morning
@@ConvectiveChroniclesall right I’ll stay tuned in for tomorrow last place anyone wants to be during a severe thunderstorm or god forbid a tornado is a mobile home
Parts are now under a moderate risk
...@4:25 Exactly what I was thinking.
Hey whats your thoughts on Columbus Indiana and the timing
Need to be on alert starting this afternoon
@@ConvectiveChronicles what do you think she'll be dealing with
“New chrome available “
Duuuuude, I was gonna head out at 6 am and of course fell asleep, gonna leave by 11am maybe catch a tail end Charlie, hopefully later initiation
Should be a fun day; good luck and be safe!
Weird question, Any past setups that this reminds you of?
Not at all saying the outcome will be anything close, but the bones of the setup remind me a bit of 4-3-74, especially for tomorrow. Main trough was positively tilted w/ a lead negatively tilted shortwave moving into the Midwest. Also had quite rich moisture after several days of unimpeded return flow, as we’ll have tomorrow.
@@ConvectiveChronicles thank you! I always like comparing these with simular setups of the past and then comparing again after to see what happened differently or the same.
And just now they upgraded to moderate for Oklahoma. 😳
I think theyre sleeping on western IL storms by the warm front and the red river area
I like the Red River area especially
I been telling folks that 2% tornado risk for DFW is still a danger and be aware. I always ascribe "any given sunday" . Though hail is a major threat where...I need a new roof .
Two words: Juicy CAPE 🍊⛈️
Just as I finish watching this, 1730Z D2 upgrades to 15% hatched tor over Ohio. Good call!
I’m not very excited about this.
This is the most highest risk for this year possible. I actually thought that moderate risk is coming.
Day 2 outlook looking spicy
Yeah, not looking good
I really want to see some hail in Pittsburgh because I want to get some good pictures of the ice. Maybe it'll happen 👀
Can you please tell me what Johnson City Tennessee is looking for tomorrow
All hazards are on the table
@@ConvectiveChronicles can you tell me how much percentage the hazards are and can you tell me when to expect my first storm plz
Need to be prepared from tomorrow afternoon through evening for all hazards, regardless of probs@@michaelbanks1230
When do you think the tornado threat will be approaching its peak now the Moderate risk has been issued?
It should be first in OK around sunset, and then will spread northeast with the increasing LLJ into the nighttime hours
The damn NAM being the NAM, dagnamit! 😂
OKC be like 'Not Okay, See?'
S shaped hodograph enjoyers are gonna enjoy the crap out of big hail and low tornado potential lmao. I dunno jacksh*t about chasing, but based on your breakdown, the question seems to be: Does favorable storm mode (discrete) last long enough to take advantage of LLJ timing later this evening where hodographs suggest a more favorable environment for nadoes? I dunno lol. It will be interesting to see how this plays out and if chasers capture some nice videos. It will also be interesting to see what kind of nocturnal embedded nado threat plays out as well.
Yep, you’re exactly right
Joplin ☠️
Yep MDT risk for hail
and they extended the tornado risk area
What happened between today and yesterday? they went from saying, this is going to be an outbreak, to this is nothing, and back again.
The models have uptrended a bit on the strength of the low-level jet this evening, which has in turn given us some more intense solutions as far as strong tornadic activity goes. On the hail side, they just needed a bit more confidence in the coverage/intensity of hail-producing supercells, and they got it this morning, hence the upgrade to Moderate Risk.
Now huntsvilles in the enhanced 💀
For damaging wind; tornado threat remains low
This system is sooooo robust and remarkable way to basically kick off tornado and chase season in a way officially with so many people now on their 3 month trips. Not only did they add the 10% # back but that is huuuuge now and the hail threat is gonna be crazy too.
2 days potential strong Tornado outbreak with hail outbreak today alone....nuts. the soundings and parameters are pretty stout already and models have been robust AF on the event today. This is one of these days that I can see being the moat robust or in the top 3 events of 2024. Pretty remarkable event overall and only iffy thing spme of the radar coverage spots will be poor and poor chasing areas in SW MO. Oh and MDT I think we will see cause some of the 12Z guidance is looking very potent.
Been a while since we have seen a 2 day system this serious. Good luck on your chase today. I do hope chasers ourlt there today understand that 3+ inche hail is not good to be out in. That can kill you if you don't have even a helmet on. I am surprised people dont have a hard hat or something on with protective eye glasses in their cars.....you never know.
I wouldn't say strong tornado outbreak, prob more like a few strong tornados, but the hail will be massive.
Not seeing a strong tornado outbreak at this point, but we could see a strong tornado or two here or there. I still think storm mode is going to hinder a bigger event, especially up north.
Be careful out there today mister. You're in the process of turning me into a professional pretend youtube meteorologist/storm chaser and id hate to lose all of our progrsss. 😁😁😁
Hahaha will do!
Over performing Ohio again lol
Hope tornado potential moves further south towards Dallas Fort Worth
We'll see; not out of the question
There Talking Moderate today
How do you know?
@@henmeister613 the spc
@@henmeister613 for Hail and the wind
@@SLDS592 what about naders?
@@henmeister613 for Hail
im excited to see how this plays out. thank you for the breakdown trey! 🫶🏼🫶🏼