Thank you so much for your hard work. The info that you put out is unique, and well done. Jessica's show last year was extremely informative and well remembered out of all the shows I watched on the KD. I am looking forward to it. Thank you again.
I believe Just Steele has been a cut under some of these horses but that second to muth was a big race.He about fell twice turning for home and top of stretch. Not sure why the big improvement. He has not been consistent
I read an article where Lucas said that they "had to get after him". He looked to have so much potential, but kept disappointing me at the end of races. Maybe he just doesnt know or care to get ahead of other horses. He should win more, imo.
According to race pattern and breeding this horse is a race horse.Definately can respond to tough competition as shown in his unlucky tangle to keep running fast behind a great looking Muth.Also another one bred by Justify is Just A Touch who looks like the real deal with better rating tactics now. Both dangerous to run eacta along with Stronghold and Track Phantom,MYSTIK DAN for the trifecta.
I notice some experts talk about Ragozin Sheets. Is anyone at liberty to give an opinion and/or explain what they mean and how they are arrived at? I know that they were developed by a man with the surname Ragozin and the lower the number the higher the horse's speed was rated. They also talk about pairing two races in a row as being good. Zero is considered "perfect." I heard it said that Forever Young has paired 6's.
@raychun7496 I believe that Brisnet gives the speed ratings based on different speed a horse ran at different stages in the race. Where can you get the Brisnet speed ratings?
It's getting worse. Horses are now raced to be bred. Back in the day, they used to be bred to be raced. When it was like that, horses stuck around and raced to age 4 or 5. Great horses at 3, seldom race at 4. I think its b.s.
Does brisnet factor in field size with their speed ratings? Given the Derby is a 20 horse field, I would be more impressed by a 100 speed figure in a field of 12 versus a 100 speed figure in a field of 7 or 8.
Random Comment: If you want to see a brutal schedule.... take a look at Charismatic 1999. 14 races under his belt before the KD. Also, raced 6 races in 3 months-- between 3/6/1999 and 6/5/1999. And of course, came up lame on 6/5/1999 in Belmont.
I KD,The Lucky Horse,,will WIN In Preakness,The Fastest Horse I'm Belmont,The Horse with the Stamina (Breeding) Last,POST POSITION is Important Factor..
Great information here about how to make your decisions , how to make a good pick for a winner And how to 💰 in.Blessings to everyone from God.Elaine Acosta
Yes Mystik Dan (101)running style reminds me of Secret Oaths big three furlong move and if track wet he could go on from Track Phantom (97)-106 weary speed on Fierceness(106) - 93 and Dornoch(94) forward approaches now.. However Steve Assumsen is dead serious about breaking his Derby Jinks and D.Wayne Lucas looking for a send off last Hoorah years of greatness with Just steel (96) (Justify).Note the Assumsen flavors either way Daddy,Son and Hall of famer connections to Lucas trained mentoring.
You are right that these numbers by themselves are not predictors. They show how fast the horse ran in that particular race. The times posted on the tote board are not comparable from track to track because some tracks are longer and others shorter. Even under different weather conditions the speed of the track may change even on the same day. Speed figures take these differences in to account. If certain trends are noted, these can be used to predict. Brisnet also gives numbers for the speed that a horse ran at different stages in the race. This enables us to see if the horse is fast early or late or runs evenly. Because if the greater length of the Derby, the ability to run fast late in a race is a positive indication. It is more scientific and that is a good thing.
Just a Touch could follow in his daddy's footsteps to become only the 3rd horse in a century to win the derby after having not raced as a two year old. So it's tough to analyze , but Muth did it also last year, albeit against a soft field.
So your chart with days off...it doesn't have the Kentucky Derby as the last date - correct? My math says, for example, that if you put another column in there with Kentucky Day, that Fierceness would say 35 days. Catching Freedom 42 days. Endlessly 35 days. Sierra Leone 28 days. Resilience 28 days, I guess I'm just confirming that Derby day is not in your chart, and I wanted to clarify that for other subscribers. Love your channel! Keep it up!
Thanks for your information helps in making Derby selections. Good work !
Thank you so much for your hard work. The info that you put out is unique, and well done. Jessica's show last year was extremely informative and well remembered out of all the shows I watched on the KD. I am looking forward to it. Thank you again.
Great Information 👍
If We Believe Just Steel Is A Bounce Candidate, We’re Saying Wayne Lucas Is Not The Master He’s Known To Be
I believe Just Steele has been a cut under some of these horses but that second to muth was a big race.He about fell twice turning for home and top of stretch. Not sure why the big improvement. He has not been consistent
I read an article where Lucas said that they "had to get after him". He looked to have so much potential, but kept disappointing me at the end of races. Maybe he just doesnt know or care to get ahead of other horses. He should win more, imo.
According to race pattern and breeding this horse is a race horse.Definately can respond to tough competition as shown in his unlucky tangle to keep running fast behind a great looking Muth.Also another one bred by Justify is Just A Touch who looks like the real deal with better rating tactics now. Both dangerous to run eacta along with Stronghold and Track Phantom,MYSTIK DAN for the trifecta.
Fierceness, Sierra Leone, Just A Touch, Catching Freedom, Honor Marie. If Fierceness gets a fast start. IMHO.
I notice some experts talk about Ragozin Sheets. Is anyone at liberty to give an opinion and/or explain what they mean and how they are arrived at? I know that they were developed by a man with the surname Ragozin and the lower the number the higher the horse's speed was rated. They also talk about pairing two races in a row as being good. Zero is considered "perfect." I heard it said that Forever Young has paired 6's.
Will you be doing the final furlough, eighth , and 16th time for each horse like last year. Was extremely helpful.
@raychun7496 I believe that Brisnet gives the speed ratings based on different speed a horse ran at different stages in the race. Where can you get the Brisnet speed ratings?
It's a furlong. And a furlong is an eighth mile.
@@vernonfrance2974 Mahalo for the info. Good luck.
@@question_it_701 Mahalo for the clarification. I believe Jennie Rees had a chart of the info I'm seeking last year in a Horse Racing Nation post.
Mint Juleps and Hot Brown sandwiches while I think Resilience is the one to watch.
I started a reply earlier but lost it guy to continue The Lexington gives us zEncino. I LIKE 👍 alot!
I hope he gets in.Elaine Acosta
the greatest 2 minutes in sports , and its about all the real sports left .
It's getting worse. Horses are now raced to be bred. Back in the day, they used to be bred to be raced. When it was like that, horses stuck around and raced to age 4 or 5. Great horses at 3, seldom race at 4. I think its b.s.
Does brisnet factor in field size with their speed ratings? Given the Derby is a 20 horse field, I would be more impressed by a 100 speed figure in a field of 12 versus a 100 speed figure in a field of 7 or 8.
Random Comment: If you want to see a brutal schedule.... take a look at Charismatic 1999. 14 races under his belt before the KD. Also, raced 6 races in 3 months-- between 3/6/1999 and 6/5/1999. And of course, came up lame on 6/5/1999 in Belmont.
Fierceness, Sierra Leone, Honor Marie, Resilience, Just a Touch
I KD,The Lucky Horse,,will WIN
In Preakness,The Fastest Horse
I'm Belmont,The Horse with the Stamina (Breeding)
Last,POST POSITION is Important Factor..
Great information here about how to make your decisions , how to make a good pick for a winner
And how to 💰 in.Blessings to everyone from God.Elaine Acosta
Why didn’t you mention fierceness on the bounce list because he bounce after every win
Can mystik Dan get 1 1/4 Derby??
It's going to be a challenge since they change his style to a closing style he has a better chance.
@@derbyologist love u show, very helpful
Yes Mystik Dan (101)running style reminds me of Secret Oaths big three furlong move and if track wet he could go on from Track Phantom (97)-106 weary speed on Fierceness(106) - 93 and Dornoch(94) forward approaches now.. However Steve Assumsen is dead serious about breaking his Derby Jinks and D.Wayne Lucas looking for a send off last Hoorah years of greatness with Just steel (96) (Justify).Note the Assumsen flavors either way Daddy,Son and Hall of famer connections to Lucas trained mentoring.
Im still on fierceness sierra Leone second
Stronghold slowly and surely , good e/w on Derby Day ..😊😊😊
my math says Track Phatom sitting on a win on derby day. 😂
POP 🎉AND FLOP = Fierceness 😂😢😂😮😮😮
Lookout
Seems to be a little too scientific for me. It’s artful and we cannot use numbers as a predictor
You are right that these numbers by themselves are not predictors. They show how fast the horse ran in that particular race. The times posted on the tote board are not comparable from track to track because some tracks are longer and others shorter. Even under different weather conditions the speed of the track may change even on the same day. Speed figures take these differences in to account.
If certain trends are noted, these can be used to predict. Brisnet also gives numbers for the speed that a horse ran at different stages in the race. This enables us to see if the horse is fast early or late or runs evenly. Because if the greater length of the Derby, the ability to run fast late in a race is a positive indication.
It is more scientific and that is a good thing.
Do final fractions with brisnet late pace.
Yes I will be doing those next week.
Hey Derby O ' ! To me- Fierceness & Sierra Leone look good. Who do U prefer ? !
Maybe Fierceness at this point. Have to see how post positions and weather
Just a Touch could follow in his daddy's footsteps to become only the 3rd horse in a century to win the derby after having not raced as a two year old. So it's tough to analyze , but Muth did it also last year, albeit against a soft field.
I don't use any pace or speed figures of any of these publication. I created my own for that.
Thanks Craig for this excellent analysis for the speed figures. I see Fierceness has improved his speed figures
I did not see Track Phatom on graph charts of day away chart.
So your chart with days off...it doesn't have the Kentucky Derby as the last date - correct? My math says, for example, that if you put another column in there with Kentucky Day, that Fierceness would say 35 days. Catching Freedom 42 days. Endlessly 35 days. Sierra Leone 28 days. Resilience 28 days, I guess I'm just confirming that Derby day is not in your chart, and I wanted to clarify that for other subscribers. Love your channel! Keep it up!
Yes I will clarify that for Derby as we run it closer to race will add that column
Does rain influence the speed figures
If a horse loves the slop over a dry track absolutely
I think “track conditions “
Like Pletcher Said Fierceness Has Something In Reserve, Suggesting He’s Yet To Improve On His 2Yo Form
Fierceness needs a fast start, no bumping, no traffic. Wire to wire. Can he do it? We shall see.
Nice informative video
Really intetesting.
Really interesting
Thanks for watching.