Jim Rogers: "Time To Worry" About China's Economic Troubles and Market Overexuberance
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- Опубліковано 28 чер 2024
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Today, we are privileged to welcome Jim Rogers, investing legend and co-founder of the Quantum Fund, which famously returned 4200% over just 10 years.
In this episode, Jim discusses the overexuberance that he believes is ramping up in global markets in 2024. One exception to this trend is China, which is going through a period of “despair” following its real estate bubble.
Jim also mentions why he's investing in countries like Uzbekistan before sharing insights into his long/short investment strategy and the key qualities of a successful investor. Enjoy!
Key Takeaways:
0:06 How to Invest Like Jim Rogers
4:48 Japan's Economic Highs and Lows
9:49 Market Overexuberance Concerns
15:00 China's Real Estate Bubble
20:08 Risks of Escalating Wars
25:28 Economic Troubles Ahead
30:48 Lessons on Successful Investing
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#jimrogers #china #chinaeconomy #uzbekistan #georgesoros #stockmarket #realestate #investing
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Few years back, Jim wanted everyone to go all in on China
Yes, I remember an interview with him a few years ago saying China was ascendant and it was going to be the best investment choice for decades.
@shauna996 I've always respected Jim, but I always felt funny about his views in China. Never thought a centralized command style economy could predict market outcomes.
@@flashfuture27You're correct. China's central command had destroyed and suppressed the economy for a hundred years, but then they reduced their central command control, at first when they allowed "special economic zones", which were free of many government prohibitions and regulations. This is what Jim saw all those years ago.
You’re funny - write before watching video - became victim of click bait
Remember he moved there, tried to learn language. Obviously smart man who was also fooled by the CCP.
Boy, Jim has changed his tune a bit after moving to the far east a decade ago, having his kids learn Chinese, thought it was all the future Jim.?
Didnt Jim used to think that China was going to take over as the the strongest economy in the world? Just wondering if he changed his mind on that?
Jim Rogers used to be a big cheer leader of Chinese economy.
Yeah, his tune has notably changed a bit.
The biggest
Moved to Hong Kong and had his children learn Chinese.
@@anthonyferris8912 singapore
Rarely does Jim Rogers reveal any new insights.
Nothing new here
And he is always vague about his role in the founding of the Quantum Fund with George Soros. I have always wondered why.
Thanks for letting me know. It's always the same old folksy manner of speaking saying buy low and sell high. What genius I tell you.
Lucky people getting old sound like him. Never had anything worthy to contribute.
Only a few US tech stocks are rising. Am I correct?
No timestamps?
It is not a bubble that is the problem, it stills has a property bubble, an asset bubble overall, but it has an economic model problem.
I love how everyone wants to know how the people like Jim Rogers got wealthy. If people like Jim Rogers told everyone how they did it and everyone followed their paths, how are people like Jim Rogers going to get rich if everyone is doing what they did? Jim Rogers NEEDS people like us to get rich otherwise no one will get rich.
Family secret recipes are only handed down to family.
Some wise man once said” when someone is coming out with a book about how to get rich,everytjing in the book is outdated”…
Markets are by & large a popularity contest.
Japan's economy hasn't been contracting because of financial management only, Japan has been able to counteract the effects of a declining population by being one of the world's leaders in advanced automation and technology. Japan remains hughly productive as the global #4(dropping one spot to India only this past month) econy as measured by GDP.
Should silver behave like gold or copper during a recession?
Maybe this time its different.....Jim knows better !
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Good interview
Shouldn't you worry about US economy?
You mean with the highest GDP ever and falling post-Covid inflation?
He does, but he is not ready to sell short just yet
Why? We don't have industries operating at 30% capacity and a bunch of wasting assets. We don't have empty housing fully price controlled at highest value that is empty and able to house 1.4 to 3 billion people while having the fastest collapsing demography in world. We don't rely on exports to employ our people. We aren't a developing country whose debt profile is as high as an advanced country. We don't have a GDP that doesn't write off bad investments, but collateralized them, increases bad assets by rolling over unpaid interest into next year's loans and have a banking sector whose assets are so bloated. If China wrote off bad investments its economy would shrink 40 to 60% and its assets would disappear. The thing is, you people have told yourselves the wrong story for so long.
The biggest
@Theactualclips China's GDP accounting us unlike all others around world, which is why they can't open their capital account. Normal accounting, make investment, it fails, you write it off, 1 billion only returns 200 million, the asset is devalued by 800, and the debt is written off, it subtracts from GDP. China doesn't do that. The make long term investments using short term debt, roll unpaid principle into new loan, called regreening, and the capitalize the debt, the supposed asset goes up in value. So, to answer your question, no, not even close under any terms of imagination, so your attempt at conflating using a linguistic structure of "any" to dispose of China's reality of a "very large" portion is a logical fallacy of conflating. Experts have China's economy overstated in RMB by 40 to 60%. Similar to Japan, but much more aggravated back in the 1980s to early 90s. So issue is how correct. Great Depression like US in 1930s, 0% growth to hold asset values and income rising 1% a year like the 3.5 decades of Japan, the lost decades, or perhaps sell of local gov assets, markdown assets and debt, and spend on citizens (politically impossible). You don't need to believe me, look at words of Li Keqiang who tried to get China to reform for last 20 years. I could go on. Steel, operates at mid 30s in capacity. In 2008 we had a crisis and for a year US capacity fell to 78%. China has printed tens of trillions. Their economy is smaller but their banking sector is 325% the size of US. Add total social financing and the debt goes deeper. Why house prices are 29 to 220 times annual income and their assets include housing for 1.5 to 3 billion people, empty, but as if full value. Even their bad banks asset management companies from the 1993 financial.crisis are at full value, never marked down, and the same for 1998, 2003 and more.recent. you want more? Need more because you merely.watch popular sources of information? This is what I do.
Jim was in the right place at the right time.
Jim is sane . He is right in how war is started and people don't know how to get out.
Jim Rogers put his own $ into his investments, unlike GIC/TH. JR has been successful. In contrast SGP's govt has to make up its humongous losses by increasing GST & a host of other charges. PSA, a 100% TH sub tried to sell off its stake in PRC ports which PSA Int. bought in 2005/2006 amounting to US$5.5 BILLION, without success for several months recently. Speaks volumes about the incompetence of LHL/HC management of our reserves........meanwhile US & Japanese stock mkts hit record highs........BUT PRC;s indices suffered huge losses.
Mr Jim Rogers 👍
Such an investor legend ✨️👊✨️
Such a cowboy investor legend ✨️✨️✨️✨️✨️✨️✨️
Despite negative comments I see posted, IMO Jim Rogers'discussion appears to be fair. He touches on the umportance of timing investments, the state of the Dollar, economic bubbles and a lot more based on his life experience. Everything can be debatable and open fo discussion but aren't particularly radical.
Jim seems very down these days. He must have lost a shit ton of money from chinas market crash. He really loves china as he made alot of money on the way up. However china never gives up anything of value. Never invest in china unless you're prepared to loose everything you've invested.
May be his young wife bailed on him :)
Good good.
So, gold & silver bottom before the other markets do?
Good question.
How does he invest in these developing countries and how does he short them?
jim rogers howv times have changed when mr rogers was the Chinese optimist
When did this interview take place?
At noon
Why you worry China, you should worry your own country instead, 34T debts, day in day out piling up with no signs of stagnation.
LGFVs are crumbling, Wumao.
He’s lived in Singapore for almost two decades. 🧨
We worry China because China fall apart. America have problems, but small compare to China for examper, there no baby in China.
Is better to save your own skin, rather then worrying about other people.
Is the current environment of 'easing while tightening' or fiscal stimulus with restrictive fed rates a new thing? It would seem to explain the above expectation growth numbers and delayed recession. Someone posited that it has been the illegal immigrants who are boosting our economy above expectations; I like that one.
If the Fed and Treasury are in the process of inflating us out of our fiscal deficit, what would that look like in terms of magnitude, meaning how long and what levels of inflation would be necessary to accomplish this.
🎉🎉
How can Japan survive with this level of debt/gdp?
@Theactualclips Can you explain a little?
I believe it's because almost all of the debt is owed to its own citizens and not to foreigners.
@@stevenoliver7120 How would that make a difference?
I can only presume it's a form of MMT which would present the nation's economy as a balance sheet with the private sector (the people) on one side, and the government (owned by the people) on the other side. Entire books have been written on this. I'm not really qualified to explain it.
Could this be a hyoe to scare investors to leave so others can take over? It's been dine before.
Yes, since is likely shorting.
@25:00 he dodges the AI question twice
Think about it, he is not willing to discount the idea, that workers might be able to reduce their work week to three days due to productivity gains
Downturn is not bad. Everything should slow down.
Dont worry about china they are doing fine
lol :))
Why so many people worry about China these days? The worst days were over and the property crisis is easing off now. Things start to resume and people at art spending money again since the beginning of 2024. Why I know cos I live here😅
@@DerDoplol what mf?
I am in China over 15 years.. Everything is fine here as you just mentioned.
@@user-ex9je5fm5e lol again :)))
If someone like Rogers, a Chinese economic apologist, is worried... things must be serious
Just we should buy Cardano ADA or even better Midnight privacy thing once it comes out in the beginning of the next year, or even privacy COTI right now.
Yes, privacy COTI now and Midnight in Q1 in 2025.
Those are highly sure things.
Rogers and co. always talk up their own book.
Any idea excessive liquidity is driving rhe USA econimy rise is tupid and uninformed. The Fed announced over 6 minths ago it had sucked out all the liquidity unjected into the economy due to Pandemic aid. Current performance is entirely the strength of the US and not due to any manipulation or trickery.
There is some concern about the debt payments that will become due related to the increase un the National Debt but for know is considered manageable as ling as the current demand for US sovereign debt remains high and hopefully interest rates will decreae soon. But conditions would have to radically change for the current US financial strategy to change significantly.
These questions are terrible.
Seems like the host has no idea how to ask great questions in front of one old legend of Wall Street.😅
Bad business plan to threaten your biggest trading partner.
Jim has been a doomsday preacher for the last 2 decades amd yet the U.S.A stock market kept going highet and mightier!
The stock market is not the real economy.
Yes, he is a permabear. He made his money via shorting. Looks like he lost some money in the past couple of years on shorting.
Contrarily, Rodgers is always right. He valuess things in gold, not US dollars...
That doesn't make him a liar. After all there's nothing about fiat being real. Just a casino with magic rules.
He will eventually be right someday
He’s definitely not excited at really answering questions in this interview…
How do US people sleep?😢
divine central authority unity with substantive human rights choice for international law overcome political government separation from God
I've got out NOTHING from the vid.
Home boy , you should worry about US economy first, China has been around for five thousand years !!!!! They will out do everybody.
Been around for 5,000 years yet doesn't have the gdp of the USA a country that is only 250 years old and has a population less than 1/3 of China.
China is crashing its obvious.
China yes, but Chinese people have been eating dirt for large stretches.
Now they can just take a plane to Mexico and cross the border
It's easy to succeed when you have the entire US manufacturing sector literally boxed up and shipped to China for free to employ their massive cheap labor force. Then, give them free shipping and tariff free open access to the US. Now that this gravy train has run dry, seems like they're trying to find people to sell stuff to.
China has had many horrific cycles. Oh yeah, remember CCP has tried to destroy cultural past--remember the great leap forward? Civil wars? Invasions? Han genocide wars?
Now the joker is crying for China..dissing growth in India and making ppl miss out on next growth engine
"Stocks don't go up forever"--pan to Opto looking like someone stole his binky.
Is this anew interview, or a recycled interview from long ago?
Is this another China collapsing discussion 🙄
China despair???? Isn't the whole world in despair? Why China? This kind of headline of China negativity doesn't work anymore.
But only China is in a deflationary spiral.
He mentions their reliance on real estate. What's your opinion?
I remember he was the biggest china bull EVER. moved there, had his kids learn the language etc. I just he wasted decades on that disaster of a call, and the impact on his life surely negative.
Silver could go down? Please retire
this guy is a forever China bull. Don't know how he can do that
Paid to tell untruths and half truths.
@@gusdeng6082 Uncle Sam paid him?
(He's) - A - (Multi - Billionaire) - 🎯🎯🎯🎯🎯 - (He's) - Been - (Successful) - ✅️ ✅️ ✅️ ✅️ ✅️ -
@@milexiangyangli5666does not need the money.
@@fredfrond6148 - (Bingo) - 🎯🎯🎯🎯🎯 - (The - Reason) - (He) - is - (Telling - It) - Like - (It - is) - ✋️✋️✋️✋️✋️ -
Hey jim say hello to your boss George Soros.
Jim, admit you're wrong about China and keep quiet from now on.
Best comment so far.
Jim is getting old
Not much substance.
What bullshit.....
This is painful viewing.
This guy doesn't provide any insight of the world's economy. Just rumor.
Hey, you wanna worry? That should take up some of your meaningless lifetime.
Rogers looks grumpy here. Not sure why he is on this podcast. It appears he is no longer a China bull, and has shorted some stocks in both US and China. Uzbekistan is not for us mortals. I invest in China only if there are ADRs available. There is no such thing for us in Uzbekistan.
He knew that and sold his stocks...he was bullish a few months back only to sell his stocks
Boring ... no real Information... nothing that we dont know
Rodgers is a dinasour and has no wisdom to share. What adore he has become.
He was named a Chinese expert, obviously he doesn't know much.
This guy told you to ditch thr US equity market and go all in on China about 20-30 years ago. Over that span, his recommendation under performed at about 1 to 10 ratio. So his "success" is really quite a stretch of the truth.
Gold has done fantastically.
@@sulavaca look at the 20 year history, not just last year
Japan = 80s 90d relic.