Will Covid 19 Change the Bike Industry?
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- Опубліковано 25 вер 2020
- I discuss some of the possible changes that the Covid 19 pandemic might have on the bike industry, especially the quality of bikes.
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Can confirm anecdotally, here in Xiamen there used to be lots of western brand's production managers coming in and out...When C-19 first hit most of them got out of Dodge ASAP. Now none of them can get back in. You're right in your observation than it's a prime time for Chinese brands. However, not the cheapy-cheap ones. At the moment all the factories are snowed under with orders thanks to the big boom in demand. This means factories have started raising their prices for things like paint jobs, frames, etc. If the brand is willing to pay more money, they can get to the front of the queue. This has effectively priced out some of the smaller brands who can't compete with the expensive brands. Furthermore, some factories who have their own brand but also OEM for the big brands can now make more money selling the frame to the OEM customer than they could with selling the frame under their own branding. But, the more mid-high end Chinese brands definitely have a chance. Not only can they afford an increase in costs, but they also have very good relations with the factories. It doesn't matter how much money you're gonna give per frame. If brand A's bosses' kids go to school with Factory B's bosses' kids and the two bosses are drinking buddies, suddenly brand A's frames are at the front of the production queue. This is the ultimate advantage for the Chinese brands. The same for wheel rims too. A factory knocking out rims will sort the rims into quality brackets when they come out the mold and get finished. There's no way they're gonna try to give the B grade rims to the brand that is 100 meters down the road, because the brand is just gonna walk back up the road and dump them back at their feet. But some western brand half way around the world that will have to wait 2 months for the boat to arrive and then be in no position to say 'no' to the product because they have their own schedule to meet.... those guys are definitely getting the B grade stuff. However, that's not to say the B-grade stuff (or even C-grade) isn't what you buy when you 'buy direct from the factory' on Alibaba or eBay.
Always nice to have someone's input that has his fingers directly on the pulse.
#truthbombs
It is interesting that Yoeleo just released a video promoting their quality control testing a few hours before this video.
Great points. I think I'll stick with the bikes I currently own for now....
I have been saving up for my first new bike in 45 years. Having waited so long, I'm going to wait a little longer for just the reasons you mentioned. I estimate I have ridden well over 100,000 miles on my Raleigh SuperCourse. What's a couple thousand more!!! BTW, the only part remaining from the original bike is the frame, pedals (Campy), and handlebar. 🤣
If you have been saving up for 45 years, you might as well get a custom/bespoke frame/fork made to your exact dimensions by an expert bicycle frame maker. The bike will ride better for you instead of trying to fit into an off the rack frame. This is especially so if your body dimensions are not proportional. i.e. longer legs, shorter torso, etc, etc. You can customise it anyway you like in terms of colours and groupset. I would invest in a custom Titanium frame/fork which will outlast any off the rack CFRP bike.
@@triode1212 Thanks for the suggestion. Yes, after waiting this long I need to consider all options. Retirement is right around the corner and I am so excited to have more opportunities on the bike.
This is the new economy. Expect the prices to go up, reflecting what bikes are really worth now. Worried about poor quality from understaffed mega bike factories? Buy from the small independent manufacturers, if you can afford it. If you can’t afford to buy from small builders, buy used and learn to service your own bike.
^^^ This.
Used carbon is like dating someone with schizophrenia.... you never know when it's going to SNAP
Prices here in the UK getting silly. Well, the UK’s become silly anyway so why not.
The biggest fear for the industry should be the big slow down when this artificial bubble bursts. It is inevitable. Right now it's a seller's market as values have skyrocketed with demand due to more leisure time and various government financial benefits, but it will all come crashing down as the world starts slowly getting back to normal...when schedules tighten as does the pocketbook. The market will have been absolutely flooded with bikes and accessories, and it will turn to a buyers dream on the second hand market. It may take a month, it may take a year, but it will happen.
Im already seeing that in Adelaide Australia. It's becoming a buyers market again
Thanks for this video your assessment is spot on. The second hand bike market has boomed due a lack of stock in the bike shops. Some bike shops make you wait up to three weeks for repair jobs and the price of new bikes has sky rocketed.
Excellent points and video!
My company manufactures complex products in China. Not the bike industry, but process and quality critical for us. We often don't find out about basic problems, like equipment bring damaged or out of cal, or just simply being mis-used, until the consequences show up in production. This is not a CM, the name on their first door is the same as ours! We own, design and control all of the processes, we verify everything before starting volume production, but this is extremely challenging to do if we can't go there.
i tried buying a cervelo bike in austria since march.... wasnt able to get one since no dealers had many in stock... bought one from germany 5 days ago.... even bikes from other brands were pretty rare....
I think you are stop on, when demand out strips supply, corners are cut to get product out the door. Seen it before, and will probably see it again.
the prices still keep going up, $20k bikes will be the norm soon, still made in china of course
What current are you using? The AUD and the USD devaluation will price a $10000 bike for $20000 but on the plus side food and other commodities will double in price so its all relative.
I think that the demand will drop significantly next season. I'm in North America (Canada) and we're getting closer to the off season.
Imagine, almost everyone that I know who needed a bike, bought one. I know, it's anecdotal but still...
I think local bike store may, from the start of next season, see a significant drop in sales from low to high end bike.
Also, the economy may collapse with unpredictable effects world wide. When you're in survival mode or afraid of the economical future you don't buy much more than the essential.
If that the case, we may end up with production capacity exceeding demand in a near future.
All the players in the industry would have to fight for their survival.
@@sylvainmichaud2262 And we'll probably start to see a lot of these bikes showing up in the second-hand market in the next year or so, from people who bought bikes and discovered that the activity isn't really for them. Which will further complicate the sales of new product...
@@theadventurebiker
Yeah.
It's what I call the exerciser garage sale syndrome.
One year you see the "ab king pro" on late night tv.
The next you see most of them barely used (in their box with the "as seen on tv" label) in garage sales.
The stores closed originally here in NY USA except food stores, fast food places, Home Depot and the like, and Walmart. Bike stores closed. When I went to Walmart, wasn’t anything there resembling a bike, everything was wiped out. Not a fishing rod either. I saw lots of new people riding bikes, who didn’t look like bike riders, and none of them including young kids had helmets on.
Buy a local made CUSTOM steel or ti bike... it was the best answer before the virus and it is still is... I can't understand why that is so hard for people to grasp.
I do prefer the idea of local manufacturing however not everyone has a custom builder local or can afford a custom built frame.
Have you tried to get a Ti bike out of a US maker? It seems to me they are 8 weeks out or more. Not even Shimano components are flowing to demand.
@@LuescherTeknik If they can afford a $5-7K off the rack bike from one of the big manufacturers, they can afford a custom built frame + components. My guess is that most people want the branded bike frame or a steel bike is deemed as being too "heavy"for them or not as cool looking as a CFRP frame with it's contemporary looking cross sections, angles and styling.
Most people are not as educated about what is available for the same amount of money and why they are better options over the off the shelf bike from the majors.
Bike shops have been sold out of bikes for 5 months now. (Did you record this video a few months ago?) Because of the shortage of bikes through the normal channels and the fact that most of the buyers are rather non-discerning, they have been sourcing low end bikes from other channels. Unless infrastructure is improved and driver education is improved, this is just going to be largely a temporary blip, and there's going to be a lot of used bikes for sale in 6 months. Hopefully some of the new riders will stick with it when they realize how awesome cycling is.
I recorded it last week, it just took a while to get around to it;)
Complex supply chains, USA China trade war, covid19, may explain worsening but it's still hard to grasp "top end" bikes cost more than a motorbike
Good points. I think the manufacturing of low and mid price range bicycles and parts is going to stay in Asia for a long time.
I was considering buying a hybrid/gravel type bike - Specialized Sirrus X 3.0 non-carbon - a month or so back. The prices have shot up of course. I did some asking online for some personal info about the model. I was lucky to have people contact me pointing out that the left crank arm of this model was falling off - lots of negative reviews on the Specialized website and photos stuck up on reddit of shredded crank arms.
That, to me, is just rubbish quality control. I was looking to buy a new bike this year but will now put new parts on my old shopping bike and keep it going. I have noticed that parts such as chainwheels, cogs, chains, etc, have soared in price. I have to wonder if quality has plunged with them also.
My only other comment is that bike prices have risen so much that I am now thinking of paying that bit extra and opting for an e-bike. I am no longer a racer so do not buy expensive carbon racing bikes. I am more into mountain biking and hybrids for casual cycling - the price of hybrids is just redonkulous now!
Having come back to retail just under a year ago after a few years in wholesale I had already noticed cost cutting specifications at the entry-level price points before the pandemic.
e.g. I never thought I'd see a bike with hydraulic discs and a freewheel (not a cassette), yet they've done it!
Now prices have gone up ~10% on most products. I see there's a genuine reason for this in the short term as import freight costs have increased substantially, though will prices go back down once capacity and sea freight becomes the norm again?
I'm not holding my breath..
You can't get Bugger all bikes in England at the moment. I tried to order a Ribble and couldn't get it for 2 months. Even 2nd hand bikes are not cheap.
Yes a friend of mine sold his 4 year old specialized rockhopper in July for
£50 under what he paid new. Its crazy!
Spot on, the UK market has seen rising prices for years. More recently and no doubt linked, the UK market is seeing a change towards direct to consumer brands, Canyon and Ribble bikes are very common. Although the Chinese dominate the carbon fibre industry, significant barriers to entry exist for them. For example, they lack brand awareness and typical ways to get this are expensive e.g sponsorship. A disruptive approach might be if local bike shops (which we should support) step in to offer credibility and mitigate the risk factor of buying an unknown brand. Firstly, they would need to build a good relationship with a Chinese carbon frame and wheel manufacturer and order parts direct. Overall, the bikes would get cheaper as no marketing BS would need to be covered by the profit margin. Custom bikes could then exactly match the consumers needs and bring things like carbon wheelsets and custom paint jobs into play for more ppl. Now, how to tackle the Shimano monopoly....
Ebikes have also been a huge problem, lbs are flooded with these for repair. I don't know if they easily fail or it is simply the fact that they are ridden by "non-cycling people" with no skills at all. This results in a longer wait to get your bike back and a worse quality job for life long cyclists who have always been avid customers that now see themselves relegated by some ebike fat dude.
Aside from availability I'm struck as to why some bike shops I've seen in the Seattle, WA area are still blocking their doors and acting like everyone is diseased? No other types of stores are doing this - REI is actually demanding full nose coverage.
The trends has been shifting towards return to local manufacturing at least in Europe. Labur cost are not so importants if you have wuality, Simply profit margins will be much lower. Most bike brands make 1000s of % on frames made cheaply in Asia. Top quality frames like LOOK and TIME are still made in Europe, and they cost sometimes less or the same in retail. Europeans want to have top quality, made in Europe, since customes pay highly for frames made in Asia anyway. Try to buy somebike parts or sizes at present circumstances. Out of stock.
From an end users perspective isn't it important to look at it from the perspective of the warranty? Say I get a new bike. If the quality is great, great. If it's not but fails within the warranty and assuming it doesn't fail in a way dangerous to me will the brand respect the warranty? If they do than I don't really mind a short term decrease in quality. This does mean that mixing parts can be a challenge though where one parts lack of quality causes the failure in another part (the stem with sharp edges example) but that was a problem before too. Just that a lowering of quality will make this type of failure more likely.
I've bought a Yoeleo, which is produced by LightCarbon, at the start of the pandemic, because I read that their tolerances were considered good. But unfortunately, I've been disappointed with their manufacturing tolerances. Oval shaped BB area, oversized headtube area with loose headset bearing fittings, poorly manufactured and rough integrated carbon fiber handlebars, heavy overall frame and unexplicable amount of speedwobbles throughout the frame under different circumstances. I'm not afraid it will break though, the thickness of the framewalls tells they have used a large amount of plies to make these frames, but it isn't a satisfactory experience.
Thanks for sharing your experience, that is disapointing.
I was close in gettin Yoeleo, didnt know LC produced their stuff. To me, they're pricing was a bit too hi for the perceived value you get. In the past they seemed to have good quality from their wheels, guess not so much the frames. Going the Xiamen route with a small builder. Part build I'd spend a bit more but gettin way nicer stuff so its a win sorta lol.
Yoeleo is not a manufacturer?
@@craabit not a manufacturer, but a brand. Light Carbon and Dengfu seem to be their manufacturers
@@madmonkeycycling9098Thanks! Always thought they make their own products.
Do you know anything about the quality in BXT mtb frames? They look really good in Aliexpress, a lot of people bought them and most of them seem happy... I am really tempted ^^'
EDIT: I can't afford a branded carbon frame, so I maybe should keep my aluminium mtb, but those BXT frames are really affordable..
It sure is a brilliant chance for premium Chinese brands to step up. Add a sponsorship or two in the 2021 TdF and they´re in the business big time.. Rgr
Maybe it's time for premium non-chinese manufacturers to step up.
Really
@@markblanch4178 Why haven´t they already?? Rgr
@@borano2031 why on earth would they?
It's not their shtick
@@markblanch4178 You asked. You had the answer. Great. Rgr
Can confirm it's booming, even in Indonesia. A lot of overpriced parts, especially wheelsets. Shimano is making a killing here. Eager for more brands to flood the markets, even if their quality is not as good as Shimano.
Buy Italian!
What Italian brand ISN'T made in China in 2020? 😂
They were making a TON of crap product to start with...