MacroVoices
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- Опубліковано 24 лип 2024
- MacroVoices Erik Townsend & Patrick Ceresna welcome back Forest for the Trees founder, Luke Gromen. Erik and Luke discuss the dollar, where it’s headed both short and long term, precious metals, bitcoin and more. bit.ly/3PES8np
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00:00:00 Intro
00:01:23 Macro Scoreboard
00:04:17 Feature Interview with Luke Gromen
00:41:40 Postgame - What is Next for the Markets?
00:42:03 Crude Oil
00:44:05 S&P500
00:46:10 Nasdaq
00:47:08 VIX
00:48:24 US Dollar
00:50:02 Gold
00:51:35 Silver
00:52:17 Uranium
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So funny the way Erik is condescending about Luke “finally being right…” Don’t forget buddy that on an intellectual scale Erik: you are in kindergarten and Luke is finishing his PHD.
Print print print all the wealth to the top
I saw how most of the lower class blew all their stimmy money. You don't stay wealthy by being stupid.
All those saintly poor people. I mean they're poor, so they have to have been robbed. It has nothing to do with making poor decisions...
@@johndoe1.196 absolutely some have made bad decisions but you can NOT out work the money printers/inflation. I have dozens of properties to offset the printers but most have no idea how the system works and how they are being robbed as the wealth transfers to the top. I've taught my children but most have never been taught. It's a mass theft and mass wealth transfer mechanism
@@Michael-qy1jz
Yup !
Like 50% of Americans only have their wages as revenues !
Seeing how the U.S. dollar goes down in value as the U.S. government keep bailing out Wall Street and creating debts .
They just have no chance !
Especially with a healthcare and education system so expensive .
It’s 100% poor path if u have limited financial knowledge .
Buy more gold Boomer
As they inflate away the debt equity markets and hard assets should continue their steady march upwards (in the long term) .
wow, your prediction for the long term is unbelievable, "steady march upwards" wow that never happened before, aahahahahaha
Imagine if Erik had made just a small bitcoin allocation when he first started talking about it 8 years ago lol
I take him for the kind of guy who bought and sold a price spike.
I like Luke and agree mostly except for the dollar collapse. A decade from now he will be saying the same thing and the dollar at that time will still be the healthiest horse at the glue factory. Milkshakes for everyone !
Even Brent states the dollar will eventually collapse, but with everything.
To believe that the US will continue to exploit the world by extraction of wealth without pushback is hazardous. The newly independent countries post WW 2 have morphed into much more self aware entities. The trick of stashing away billions for the benefit of chosen traitors in return for facilitating plunder of their own countries doesn't work so well. How do finance future deficits ? Do you want trade relations with anyone? Can Western Europe bear the burden of luxury of Americans by sacrificing their own well being? Can you continue to mislead people by controlling them via social media run by intelligence agencies cahoots with Zucky Boy and the rest?
So why did Americans pile into Bitcoin?
Grommen: "Because number go up, Erik."
Townsend asks the best questions. Waller let the Operation Twist 2.0 cat out of the bag. Gold heard that.
Very good point from Gromen: the Treasury can also do pseudo-QE by shifting issuance from the back-end of the curve to the front-end.
Bitcoin has to have a tailwind with Blackrock’s etf. There has to be a small percentage added to many 401k’s. I know my 403b has .15% allocations. Not much but a lot more than most own gold.
presidential selection not election.
It's never too early to speculate
Celebrating the 10th anniversary when on Dave Ramsey's show he called BTC a scam
and added later that same week "Gold is not a serious investment".
To be fair, if you invested in gold instead of the s&p the last 20, 30, whatever years you got fucked.
@@FlailingJunk the opposite is true actually
@@chrish9311 What are you smoking?
@@FlailingJunk Gold has 10x since around 2000, with no risk. That's an awesome investment. Study some more son, you sound like you need it.
If you bought gld 20 years ago, you did fine.
The DXY has been in an uptrend since AUG 2011, the trend is your friend. I don't know what he is looking or talking about.
QE is good for US stock. What if momentum chasers go for those outside of the US stock market though during periods of coming QE? Would capital control come if that happens?
Erik agreed with Brent Johnson over his Dollar Milkshake theory about the USD getting stronger, but now he agrees with Luke that it will get weaker…?! You can’t have it both ways Erik!! 🤦🏼😂
Erik agreed with Luke’s theory but he said Luke was too early.
I wonder if Luke would appreciate tips long duration ?
Search for Howell about liquidity. He's been dead on for the two years....
❤❤❤
FTCO pays a monthly gold based dividend. OR pays a quarterly.
I guess you watched the Gold Monkey Investor too 😂.
@@jeffreygoss8109I actually have no idea who that is. I'll look into it though.
@@jeffreygoss8109 I have no idea who that is.
The FED didn't take a monetary step back, everyone else took a step forward, AKA defacto rate hike.
How can banks borrow at 0%? Am I missing something or is his thesis on bank QE dubious?
Banks can create money out of thin air .
So 0% .
And when they buy 🇺🇸 treasuries with that money , they know the government won’t default on them .
Free money !
Fractional reserve banking means the dollars are loaned into existence. How many real cents/assets the banks need for every dollar they create, is determined by The FED.
So The FED sets various reserve requirements and here the SLR - Supplementary Leverage Ratio (Basel III tier 1 leverage ratio) - is the relevant one.
Excluding treasuries from the leverage ratio calculation violates Basel III and promotes the banks to mini-central banks - but without any FED mandates or transfers of profits to The Treasury.
They can now add to The Treasury's bank accounts held at the banks - at will. The Treasury reciprocates by adding treasuries to the banks' treasury accounts - at will.
Instead of having a TGA (Treasury General Account) at The FED, The Treasury will now have many mini TGAs. When they spend the money, the banks just move the numbers to the citizens' accounts.
everyone makes the same mistake. they assume governments and the fed, actively try to avoid crisis..it very easy to argue that crisis is desired. you gain market share in a crisis. good for fed, good for governments, good for 1%, good for JPM, good for top 20 sp500 companies. Central authorities, by their nature, promote centralization of power. Gromen is smart, but his assumptions are still that the decision makers are trying to avoid crisis.
Hey Luke how's that yuan doing lol
BS+J >> S
where BS=bull shit; J=jargon; S=substance
I have over 1.5 bitcoin it has performed wonderfully after the next move to 80K I'm selling .1 each 10K move upwards until I have .25 left and I will hold onto it. If it goes lower I will buy more I also like $SOL $FLR $AERO
Good Interview, Luke is always informative, though I don't agree with all the analysis Luke makes he still provides food for thought.
If you want to listen to just one macro analyst, stick to Luke.
You really need to broaden your view.
I'm sure you're a macro wizard
He completely ignore that the treasury will nuke the market in Q2, NEGATIVE net bills issuance.
Source / Thesis?
In an election year? No way.
Jerome's every effort will fail.
I think weakening the Dollar is in everyone’s interest
Except USA...
@@Weetorp actually it’s in the US interest to decrease the dollar. This will help our manufacturing sector compete and avoid treasury market dysfunction
Not mine
Senility gave us chip and infrastructure bills…plus more
Maybe Luke can stop being a political hack, lowers his credibility
U lost me at “informed speculation”
You keep bringing on these frauds and conspiracists… It’s kind of funny as an interim between proper guests that add value to the discussion of financial market topics. Tone it down a bit, though. A joke isn’t funny when you tell it too many times.
Doesn’t fit with my view of the world = fraud and conspiracy