The Dangerous Nature of Near Earth Asteroids
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- Опубліковано 26 вер 2024
- An exploration of the dangerous nature of near earth asteroids, asteroid impacts and comets. Further I explore mitigation techniques for avoiding impacts, what might happen if we were impacted, and what has happened in the past with mass extinctions.
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@13:07 You did that one deliberately, didn't you? Seriously, it's not going to happen.
Btw I love you
Good video 👍🏻🖤
Look forward to it!
John Michael Godier : Been watching your vids for months now. Your voice is relaxing. But, I love the content. I hope you keep going for a long time. We need more of this kind of stuff, which reminds us how small we are, and how BIG our potential future could be. Thank you ✌️
My dude is up late loading up videos for us insomniacs. Perfect timing.
Sleep is for the weak.
Americans being america-centric. Nothing new here.
@@Top_Weeb damn st8
In bed with JMG?
@@Top_Weeb found muscle hank's alt
Indeed, this is one of the reasons why I think we have to look for habitable exoplanets, even if it's for future generations
In the near future, we will be able to attach a solar sail or an engine to an incoming asteroid, to change it's trajectory.
The Exoplanets Channel why? Any other planet is just as likely to be hit. We need to figure how to prevent it, not run from it.
The nearest known exoplanet (Proxima b) is about *_100 million times_* farther away than the Moon! Don't you think it would be easier to divert an incoming asteroid? After all, if it is detected years before the impact, it only takes a very minor change of its trajectory to make it miss the Earth.
We are never going to any other planets because human space travel is not possible:
heiwaco.tripod.com/moontravel.htm
@@stockey Bullshit!
Nicely and expertly presented as usual.
I bet the Amish people are just gonna be like:
*hah. we told them.*
Imagine centuries of snooty derision from others outside their religion and then all of a sudden they're right and we need them ... then just go back to how we were eventually
If they did, it'd be a case of being right for the wrong reason!
I'm as atheist as they come, but if I was forced to choose a religion, I'd be Amish - no beeping boxes in my pocket demanding my attention all the time, doing productive manual work for the benefit of myself and people I actually know, instead of sitting hunched at a desk shuffling numbers round on spreadsheets to make already-rich men even richer - I just can't get past the sky-fairy thing, but if it wasn't for that, I think an Amish lifestyle would suit me!
A mass extinction event would take them out to.
@@K1lostream Sounds like a good perspective on things.
If the Amish watch this, something has gone wrong somewhere.
It's comforting to know there are guys like you out there willing to take the time to explain the wonders of the world in ways is that the rest of us can understand. Thanks!
Who needs to go to bed when there’s a JMG video out?
JMG does lol
Yes but I'm not lucky enough to fall asleep to short videos...i go with 2 hour vids
@@conspiracynutsmakemechuckl1970 Oh, I'm a bit of an insomniac myself. Unless I'm truly exhausted, it usually takes me an hour or two to fall asleep. It definitely sucks lol.
It actually helps me go to bed. Not that the content isn't fascinating, but his voice is just TOO darn soothing. Puts me to sleep every time when binging on videos late at night!
And who the heck can go to sleep after watching this! What was that huge bang outs...?
I've had near earth asteroids on my mind a lot lately for some reason so the timing of this video couldn't be better! Thank you JMG
Me too man, crazy huh? Let's hope it's just a coincidence 😅😅😅
Ive got to say, just came across your channel in the last week, and have been binge-watching your videos. I love astronomy, and there well put together and excellently explained! Keep it up
What's more likely to happen...be crushed by an asteroid, or crushed by a solid frozen brick of discharged airliner lavatory waste?
Asteroid: potential extinction event
Asteroid sized Nokia: 100% extinction.
In fiction, my favorite story along these lines was written by Larry Niven and Jerry Pournelle - "Lucifer's Hammer".
I love big disaster scenarios. I also read that book. I should read it again. ;)
Cloudy with a chance of asteroids ☄
Another outstanding video!
Hey man, love the videos.
They're amazing for when bed time rolls around. You got a great voice to go to sleep to... Lol. Although sometimes I get so interested in the topics you cover that I don't sleep at all and listen to multiple videos instead, lol.
I generally got extremely excited, when I noticed you uploaded the video 3 minutes of me signing onto Facebook. Made my weekend. 💕
Always waiting for ur notification that u posted👍🏻 w that cool music in the background
My observation over the years: Large cities are filled with people who consider themselves highly educated (with a hefty degree of superiority) but do not know how to change their own car tire, do the most minor electrical or plumbing repair, cook a full course meal from raw ingredients or even be observed to take the time to perform rather basic problem solving thought processes outside their field of expertise. If you work in a high tech service industry like I do, you cannot likely go even a single day without running into these people (because they people requiring the service to begin with). If their service and tech support structure vanished, these people would be on the fringes of a totally useless segment of a post apocalypse society, carrying knowledge that would vanish in one generation because they are too specialized to be of any practical use. Dark ages can hit civilizations very fast because of specializations created in post-scarcity environments.
When I read your comment my first thought was "Ha! Yeah, THOSE people, they would be screwed!". Then I thought to myself for a moment...I'm an accountant. If there were no more system of currency, I would be of little use 🤔
Thankfully I am pretty handy with simple hand tools, and self sufficient, and a pretty good shot with a rifle. I would just need to learn to hunt and fish, like for real, not just casually. That there is a skill that would really set apart the haves from the have nots in a post apocalyptic world.
Get over yourself. You depend on them just as much as they depend on you.
I am a little confused. You boiled it down to cook a meal from basic ingredients. In a return to the dark ages scenario the getting of the raw ingredients is where the rubber would hit the road so speak. Unless you have a bunker, you're screwed too. I can do all of those skills and a hell of a lot more and I would be fucked every which way to Sunday like everyone else.
Just the amount of people that require meds is enormous. In an asteroid impact scenario, we are all screwed. There is not enough natural wildlife on this planet to support a few million, never mind tens of millions. So for our civilization, failure is not an option.
@@100percentSNAFU Are you kidding? If our civilization is destroyed the animal kingdom also takes a bit hit, they are not immune. The wild life left on this planet now is not enough to last those that can use a firearm for a few weeks. The oceans would collapse due to soot. We are ALL in this together. Increase NASAs budget, everyone stop complaining if gas taxes are a nickel a gallon more, because we stand or fall together.
"A country boy can survive..."- Hank Williams, Jr.
Interesting video and very creepy timing considering I was reading about this very subject earlier today. There are quite a few more of these objects out there then I realised. Great video as always John!
It's that special time of day!
Subscribed. I love space, and your voice makes these videos having me want more.
Ah... you narrative voice is such a pleasure to hear. So intelligent in tone, pace, pitch and meter. I wish you could do a long video on the composition, size and proximity of near-earth asteroids, another one on the asteriod belt and one on Kuiper Belt objects.
Just when I thought I’d mined a space rock (pardon the play on words) topic to boredom, I get a treat like this. Much appreciated!
Truly enjoy this channel. I know I've said this many times on other your past subjects. It runs me down so many rabbit trails.
Lots more rabbit holes coming!
I sincerely thank you for being consistent with fantastic and informative content. Officially subscribed and bell clicked. In no way was the delay in said actions detract from my appreciation of your channel. Thank you again.
Hey man, I just wanted to say thanks for the constant, awesome content that you proactively provide for us on both channels. Great work and keep em coming! Hut-hut!!
your channel is much more palatable than Isaac Arthur, I love both but this is my favourite and makes re calibrate my mental models of the world
Absolutely great video, John!
Just found your channel. Love space videos. Time to binge watch older content!
I often envision our world like portrayed in the film The Road after a collision on a large scale. A few humans may survive but those who did would find life unbearable.
Great video John, thank you
The Chelyabinsk and Tunguska events are VERY recent history. There is really no reason why such an event should not happen again, in our near future.
Of course a major (KT) scale impact might well occur too - random probability is just that - random. If this did occur, we do not have the technology to prevent such an event, and we'd be facing the same outcome as the dinosaurs.
I've always found it odd that more folks don't relate the KT event to Fermi's Paradox. Maybe advanced technological civilization is so fragile in first thousand years or so that it almost always gets violently regressed by some sort of ecological disaster that doesn't even have to be as serious as KT.
We have the technology. We don't have the infrastructure.
Maybe a little better than the dinosaurs, because we know what we would have to do to survive: Get underground long enough for the surrounding environment to become survivable. My semi-educated guess is a week or two at minimum, just for the heat to die down, assuming you're nowhere remotely near the impact site. If it's a deep ocean impact, then you'd also need to be at high altitude to avoid destructive tidal waves, as well as underground.
@@incognitotorpedo42 You would do well to read up on the KT impact. A "few weeks underground" will hardly suffice seeing as the estimated yield of the impact was some 100 million MT and the resulting long term climatic changes pretty devastating for all but the smallest (so low energy requirement) species - www.ucmp.berkeley.edu/education/events/cowen1b.html
Dont worry - the people running the simulation wont let that happen :P
Oh wow just in time for a new video!
Really interesting topic, man... Amazing video!
Thank you for this: I've been having a rotten day and your video put my problems into perspective.
It reminded me not to be such a self-pitying ungrateful cow when life can ALWAYS get worse!
13:04 - I miss butterflies. I'm older than the average viewer and remember how common they were when I was young. You used to see monarchs pretty much every time you went outdoors, as they numbered in the millions. Between habitat loss and insecticide, their population's dropped, and I was surprised seeing one two years ago and none since. Last year alone, the remaining population dropped by 86%, down to about twenty-thousand in a survey late last year.
People (rightly) worry about losing wildlife in the future, but future generations won't notice so much of a change anymore than people today notice the lack of butterflies. NPR had a story on change blindness a few years back, using trophy fish from Key West to illustrate the gradual diminishment of wildlife:
www.npr.org/sections/krulwich/2014/02/05/257046530/big-fish-stories-getting-littler
Specialist species tend to fare very poorly during mass extinction events. The formerly huge, and still quite large, population of monarchs obscures the fact that their seasonal breeding grounds in Mexico cover a rather small area, a lot of which is ecologically threatened. It will be far more difficult for us to save those species which have 'placed all their eggs in one basket' even if we radically alter our behavior right now.
Nick Kordich I see them all over my car as I blast my ac going down the interstate! It’s very difficult to get them off!
This is a great comment.
We humans dont even notice these kinda problems until its really too late. Our greed prevents us from making changes to save our home because they believe that we cannot effect the world despite overwhelming evidence. Our species lives in denial or just cant make the sacrafices needed and we better either prepare for the end or find other alternate homes
I have been flipping out about the drop in insect populations for years. Nobody I know seems to want to hear about it or realize the significance of the drop. When I was a kid, my parents and teachers were *sure* that I would grow up to be an entomologist, as any time my friends weren't around, I was playing with bugs. I never had a collection of pinned insects, because I didn't want to kill them. But I would trap as many examples of as many species as I could, examine them and then let them go. Basically, I was pretty in-tune with the insect world.
30 years later and I can't, for the life of me, remember the last time I saw a ladybug, a monarch, a June bug, an earwig, an inchworm... I rarely see a caterpillar of any kind. I remember when turning on a porch light at night meant you were swarmed and harassed by thousands of moths and other night bugs. Not these days though, at least not where I live. It seems like the only time I see honeybees anymore, they're always disoriented and crawling along the ground. I feed them sugar water and try to move them to a safer location. The only insects that seem to be as common as they were 30 years ago are houseflies and mosquitoes. Anyway, our pollinators are dying off and most people don't seem to realize what this means...
Their is a small part of me that would want a threat of a major impact to be detected just to see what mankind could accomplish being fully unified to a common cause with the threat of annihilation looming over all of us. Just seeing what we can accomplish working together would bring in a new era of unity among most of us and help to put things in perspective.
I think of that thought-experiment as the "sideways time machine" - I'd love to be able to look sideways in time, to an alternate timeline where a different economic policy was in place, a different politician was elected, etc. The many-worlds hypothesis suggests there's an alternate world from every possible different quantum state, so the nearest bazillion realities would show no visible difference in Brownian motion of particles in the steam off a nearby coffee cup. You basically need a genie to steer it - one you could ask "What if X got elected instead of Y" and it would pick one divergent reality out of an effectively infinite number of possibilities (given that causality would require it go back in time before the changed event to setup a different result - election tampering, more effective ad campaign, people voting on a coin toss getting a different result - all without going back so far you fundamentally change who is running or what the country was like prior to the election on a grand scale).
If the danger hold to the last hours - such event may trigger mass hysteria/anarchy/crimes... Maybe only if there are coming bad aliens we will unite :,,,)
Great content as usual
Anton Petrov did a video about a study that Apophis might hit in 2068. He thinks it's just made up as an excuse for Russia to test nukes in space.
He's also posted the probability factor chart of asteroids currently being tracked by NASA. Google "Sentry: Earth Impact Monitoring" I don't pretend to fully understand it, but the lower the Palermo scale, the higher the chance. Nothing happening any time soon or with high odds.
The guy's lost all credibility to me after he revealed how close-minded he was.
If I wanted to have long extracts read out to me from Wikipedia, I'd just go to Wikipedia.
I have just recently come across this channel and I can't stop watching it! Every video is a learning experience for me. Fantastic channel and now one of my favorites! Thank you for the great content and I look forward to your new videos when they come out!
Great video! I missed this one until just now!
JMG's voice telling you everything will end is strangely calming...
Spooky impacts from a distance
Speaking of, the Moon was hit by an asteroid during the eclipse on the 20th/21st
This is always something that I've always pondered about. Interesting video as always JMG!
The Tunguska valley was revisited a few years back. In the layers of trees that were standing back then and still are there today, they found microspherules, indicating for the researchers the Tunguska impactor was what's called a "stony remnant", what's left over after a comet has lost all of its ice and dust, and remains a loosely agglutinated collection of rock pieces.
Brilliant video mate, superb, thoroughly enjoyed watching it, learnt heaps as well along the way. Many tanks for your hard work, research and uploading for everyone to enjoy and learn. Best wishes and regards from western Australia down under.
Thank you for the longer video👍👍👍
If the far future, when we're much more advanced, could we even stop an interstellar asteroid like Oumuamua if it had been on a direct course for Earth and even larger?
Disguising an attack on rival country as an asteroid would be quite handy
Excellent video, John. It may be worth mentioning that when President Thomas Jefferson was told of rocks (meteorites) having fallen from the sky, he discounted it as foolishness. How, he exclaimed could this possibly happen!
Definitely one of your best videos so far.
Cheery video :)
I can be quite the ray of sunshine :)
Just think about banks while watching it and it becomes positively chirpy.
I think I'll add to my sleeping routine your video because it is very interesting and informative + your "radio" voice has a calming effect, images/video too.
One of my favorite places … Indian Cove, rattlesnake canyon…. Joshua Tree
I fell asleep so nicely at the end and the ad woke me up
Yay! A new video
Excellent video !!
LSST is part of our life insurance policy :-)
Hmmm have you heard about an adventure that the French had in a town of L'Aige on 26 of April 1803?
Confirmed, "shower" of stones followning an airburst of a chondrite type meteorite. Lots of the fragments collected, measured, some are still preserved. Either way, no deaths recorded, but it is a certain thing rather than a possible thing from medieval China.
Its _possible_ the UK tsunami of 1607 was caused by a meteorite hitting the Atlantic ocean? I say this because no tremors were felt by anyone that awful day, and no evidence of a landslide off the continental shelf has been found. As it was a sunny summer's day, we can rule out a major storm, which leaves us with....
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bristol_Channel_floods,_1607
Thank you for presenting this so well. We need to prepare for the future generations in many ways.
I love these videos!!! Awesome work !!
UA-cam recommending me videos from 4 years ago I forgot to like😂
The ability of humans to redirect potential impactors will be a two edged sword. One could argue that the likelihood of catastrophic outcomes is not necessarily mitigated by that technology.
Id love to see your take on theories that this has already happened (tiny group of human survivors, tech largely wiped out)
70,000 years ago a volcano erupted
Reducing the human population to possibly less than 2500
Many scientists point to this as why we are alike
Likey 10 to 20 families may have been all that survived
That doubling in the rate of impact events seems to line up with the age of Saturns rings they determined recently coincidence?
yes. Ever heard of the asteroid belt?
you deserve a million subscribers
Great channel. Great info and informative. Keep up the content!
Here's hoping our space science and engineering progresses to a point where, if we survive the current period of warming, we can keep asteroids and vulcanism in check.
Its possible that a relatively small meteorite kicks off a nuclear war. A city obliterated by a meteor impact could be mistaken as one that was obliterated by a nuclear weapon. If an undetected meteor strikes New Delhi, the odds of Islamabad getting roasted go way up.
Conversely, disguising an attack as an asteroid would be very handy, you might get away with it
Rich Migala
Fingers crossed
No
Bullshit! Atomic bombs are not a threat.
heiwaco.tripod.com/bomb.htm
No. There's a difference between an impact event and a nuke.
I DON'T CARE how relaxing your voice is, dude. THIS IS NOT THE TOPIC to listen to at 3am. (Cue Sleep Mantra: "The moon/Jupiter _almost always_ sucks up the worst asteroids, and it's why life is here, go back to sleep!") That said, Rare Earth Hypothesis.
Here's another eerie thought, as we fill up space with more and more satellites, it becomes more likely that it hits a satellite and sends debris that knocks off other satellites in a chain effect making it impossible to really have satellites anymore, either JMG or Issac Arthur was talking about this too at some point.
On the historical deaths in the Chinese incident, I find that even reliable historical accounts tend to inflate things a bit. So a 10,000 man army might wind up being 100,000 or a million, fortifications are 10m tall but are accounted as 50, buidlings go from 20m to 100, etc.
So when the Chinese account says up to 10,000 people were killed I mentally rounded that down to 1000, tops, but probably closer to 100. That's still substantial and something to be noted as 'really weird' in the history books.
🌤Hey Sunshine, great Video thanks. This is what I call sci-fi realism or possibly theories without concrete evidence that all you said was actually true. What some call a educated guess (lol), "only the smart ones". Enjoy peace an happiness while manifesting the light an love of life...
1:18
Minor correction: the building remained standing, but the roof did collapse from the blast. It was due to be repaired, but the asteroid beat the construction workers to it. Great video though!
Were you the building owner?
@@JohnMichaelGodier No, but I've an acquaintance in Chelyabinsk, and he had been to that place.
I've actually even found a link:
ria.ru/20130215/923046222.html
The picture below shows the building with its roof collapsed. It's (or rather, it was) a zinc factory.
Scroll down to the picture in the article, that brick wall is very clearly partially collapsed. It's gonna take more than a roof to fix that one.
Jeii! end is near 🤘😁👍
I must admit, the recent explosion in interest in pushing out into space (i.e. not just commercial / military earth orbit applications) from multiple countries and companies, despite no one seeming to give a monkeys butt in the preceding decades, has had me wondering if someone knows something we don't
Asteroid mining
It could also just be a giant dick measuring contest between the biggest nations.
They tend to do that anyway.
Most likely a recognition of the commercial potentials of space. Now that rocket reusability is here launch cost are going to go down steadily. The launches are spectacular enough but it's the potentials in space that are attracting serious investor money.
Energy alone maybe the biggest catalyst. Global warming is sharpening everyone's attention on the need for cleaner sources. Wind and solar are good but are intermittent and diffuse. Nuclear would be the way to go except for a public perception problem. Space-based solar energy suffers from high startup costs unless launch costs come down.
We can build space-based solar power as big as we want. The biggest barriers to terrestrial solar are gravity, land use, weather and night. None of these are an issue in space. Our sun pumps out about 10 TRILLION times as much energy as our civilization currently uses. Capturing just a percent of a percent of a percent of that would allow us to retire all other terrestrial energy sources and still be left with thousands of times more energy than we know what to do with. Electrified transportation. Electrically lit greenhouses for Alaska-grown bananas and pineapples. Desalination enough to flood the Sahara for rice paddies.
Then there's precious metals in asteroids. Asteroid 16 Psyche in the asteroid belt has millions of times more metals than have ever been mined on Earth. A tiny fraction of 16 Psyche shipped back to Earth would crash metal markets to economically shutter all of Earth's mines. The rest of 16 Psyche would provide all the space-based metal needs for centuries of human colonization.
It s just getting clearer and clearer that we overextend here. Some ppl just realize this and try to look forward
If the world's leaders think the safest place to hide from an asteroid-killer is by running to a space station in low-Earth orbit, they are sorely mistaken.
"It's recently been found that asteroid impacts on Earth have doubled over the past few hundred million years..." Wait, what??
Thank you man i’m up hella late and watching space videos.
Thank you for the info looking forward to it
Love your work mate.
Bravo.
Today is a day of studying. First Ratafak and now space rocks.
Plenty of nuclear power stations globally, all vulnerable to a Chelyabinsk-sized impactor, for which we had no warning .. ..
It's a moot question whether Toutatis, (or any other object), has been calculated to not hit us eventually. Why? because the governments would certainly keep that secret to avoid total chaos.
1,673rd!
That's it. I'm gonna quit my job, get a football helmet, a big box of food, and a keg of beer and find a cave to hide in. Let me know when it's over
Near-earth objects are Nature's way of telling you to build permanent generational space habitats. She's sending the materials for it right to our front door. We can either build ships with them, or they will fall on our heads to make room for a species that makes better use.
You can argue about this and worry about this but this is a force we have no power over....When it happens it will happen...No way to stop such an event....The only thing we can do is preparing for such an event...
If an asteroid or comet on collision course with Earth is detected years in advance, it only takes a very small modification of its course or speed to make it miss us.
I really enjoy your videos.
I'm rooting for team astroid.
John, I'm 27 and currently back in school trying to finish a degree in biology. I love your videos, have been obsessed with space and the cosmos ever since I was a small child. Yet, I'm unsure if there's any opportunities out there for a career in astrobiology, astronomy, or other space focused fields. I don't quite know what I want to end up doing for the rest of my life, but I would love to work towards furthering our advance into the universe. Is there any advice you could give a lost, old, and poor man that could give him some hope or ideas on how to pursue a career in this field? Thank you, and take care.
I believe humanity achieved a level of civilization greater than what we have today, but it was wiped out about 10-12k years ago and humanity had to start nearly from scratch again.
I don't.
John, fossil pollen and vertebrate genera such as the dinosaurs show that the KPg extinction was actually quite bad before the impact of that asteroid(there may have been others though) because of climate change before caused by increased volcanic activity in the decan traps of India and methane clathrates melting. the impact gets a bit too much attention
I wonder if the rate of impacts has doubled or if we are just better at detecting newer impacts.
Recurring micro nova of our sun theory gaining strength.
Compelling, gripping, and informative. In time I'm sure we'll develop the means to capture and harvest these stony gifts from outer space for our benefit. Who knows: Tesla may have already developed it, we just don't know it yet, lol. Great job JMG.
Strange that I just watched the Nova show on the Chicxulub impact.
Reading and writing would survive. Books would become gold.
“For the world is hollow and I have touched the sky”
"There are some animal still around whose ancestors once walked with the dinosaurs." 100% of animals still around have ancestors who once walked with the dinosaurs. The alternative is that some animals just sprang into existence out of nowhere.
OK, I just have to say it.. We love you JMG but videos without Eryn hurling contemptuous insults towards you and the LeBaron feel wrong. I'm sorry but you did this to yourself.
We have so much fun writing and recording those :)