Cable jumps after stagnant CPI eases BoE August cut bets | MarketTalk: What’s up today? | Swissquote
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- Опубліковано 26 сер 2024
- The S&P500 hit a fresh record this year for the 38th time on Tuesday, banks rallied on earnings which showed that the big banks’ trading revenue jumped nearly 20% in Q2 and investment banking revenues rose significantly on increased dealmaking. The technology-heavy Nasdaq 100 lagged, with smaller gains. The Russell 2000 rallied another 3.5%, on the other hand, hinting at a developing sector rotation from Big Tech to others. Gold gained, oil fell, and the US dollar is under pressure, as the EURUSD drills above the 1.09 mark and Cable tests the 1.30 offers after a set of stronger-than-expected inflation data eased the Bank of England (BoE) rate cut bets for August.
Watch the full episode to find out more!
0:00 Intro
0:00 Rotation from Big Tech to others continue
0:00 Gold hits record
0:00 USD index near critical Fibonacci support
0:00 GBP up post-CPI as EUR awaits figures
Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020.
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4:32 "but not great for long term us treasuries" this is the key point and explains many things subtly!
In Gold I trust, and have done so for a few years now.
Old but gold 😎
Hi Ipek and thank you. Has anyone quantified the negative T effect like with increased odds of tariffs with China for example
Yes the impact is negative on Chinese and European markets, higher tariffs are also supposed to be inflationary - that’s not being widely priced in for now… investors want to see the glass half full.
Gold traditionally used as inflation hedge. Today’s high signifies either there’s more inflation in the system than printed or it could be the statement breakaway from traditional correlation.
Thoughts?
You’re right, it’s a hedge against inflation but it also tends to rise with lower yields - meaning that the context plays a role in the short/medium-run direction. I believe that the politically and geopolitically environnement, wars and uncertainty makes gold a good place for many investors - and some EM central banks as well.
I totally agree with you Ipek. In the off chance you get to see this reply…
Most of what you said, is in my view already priced in. Meaning the rise has accounted for the geo instability and even with S&P 500 at the highest, gold still is climbing. Borrowing is at the most expensive now, yet still Equity is up and Gold is up… this is not inflation fears ,there could be something else at play here.
What if it’s the fear of AI not delivering what’s promised…Commodities are expected to go up, to meet the demand for AI adoption . Gold’s jump here might be indicative of the lack of clarity of the impact of AI and the margins it’ll create. And another reason is the investment by BRICS , at least India, China and Saudi are increasing their gold reserves, albeit a long way to catch up with US and France etc…
My point was, the high gold rate is set to continue even if Inflation is tamed. We have the highest yields since 2020, but gold continues to climb.
There you go. My 2 cents…cheers
@@lion-o1749cheers, yes, interestingly gold remained bullish even at periods of hawkish Fed shift earlier this year and is set to be bullish when it cuts rates. So yes, I believe that the Ai uncertainty and the risk of a bubble bursting also makes gold a refuge for those who worry that the rally cannot go on forever !
@@ipekozkardeskaya1383
Super stuff. Looking forward to more of these discussions. Thank you and Bonne chance🙏✌️
Let s see if Bitcoin will crash on selloffs caused by Mt Gox
A good part of that is already priced in, isn’t it ?
Hi, where can you see UK rate pricing like the Fed watch tool? Or is it only on bloomberg.
Cme used to have a BOEwatch but not anymore. So yes Bloomberg it is
I'm surprised that a Trump presidency priced in, wouldn't bring down WTI more than it has. So maybe there is a limit the US can really produce even if they take a direction towards more production. Big tech is struggling right now that's for sure. Never thought I'd see the Russell and small companies outperform Nvidia!
But wait - look at the demand side too. Trump will scrap efforts to shift toward climate friendly alternative energy sources and keep demand for oil sustained. I think that’s partly why his promise to bring energy costs down by pumping more doesn’t see a more meaningful bearish reaction. (But as you say there is also a limit to how much the US can pump)
This is not sustainable! I´m still holding and betting more but this exuberance is absolutely going to break everything! Donald Trump winning wont do much to hold this bubble bust back.