Hey Mark! Revisited a video you did in Apr 2020 when oil went negative and you mentioned "there's nowhere else to go other than the S&P500". How do you balance that "long-only" viewpoint with the current overvaluation (since you shorted SPY and IWM) with regards to your long positions, theta sleeve, etc. My strategy has been to just keep my weighted beta delta dollars in check & patiently waiting for red days to sell puts across different asset classes (TLT, equities, etc.), is there more nuance to this?
Hi Mark Shouldn't you be going short ZQ July25 to take a hawkish bet? Also don't you trade SR3 in order to take calls on the entire curve since it's active till 2030?
Hi Mark, I have some questions: 1. Have you noticed that your knowledge has compounded over time, making it easier to learn and retain new information as a result of your growing base of prior knowledge? 2. Apart from personal interest in a particular sector, what other factors should one consider before choosing a sector to specialize in? Did you choose real estate based purely on interest or was it by chance? If you had to do it all over again and couldn't choose real estate, which sector would you pick?
Do you have any thoughts on BMW after the recall announced last week? The stock dropped significantly, trading at a NTM PE of 4.7x and dividend yield of 8.44%. Could be an interesting play similar to your GM thesis. Although I must note that unlike GM, BMW is expected to have negative EPS and revenue growth YoY in 2024.
Why should I buy stocks when I can buy leaps? I can manufacture the dividend by playing theta, it requires less capital and it protects from the downside risk. Moreover, I’ll be paying the rf less and less as rates are beeing cut. I’ll roll them say 3 months before expiration. What am I missing?
Dr. Mark . Thanks for the post. I am an applied level student. I'm from India which is an emerging market. The security market is booming there and I believe it is less informationally efficient Market compared to US markets. Do you think that it will give more returns in options market compared to US markets. Kindly advise
The future rate curve reflects a joint probability of the 'normal' path for the Fed, where rates follow a steady trajectory, and an 'emergency' path, where a recession hits, prompting the Fed to cut rates to or near zero.
is there a canonical yield-curve model (something analogous to fama/french for factors) that's typically taught in courses or used in practice (that I could look up to educate myself)? I don't understand why you'd set this up as a joint probability like you've described (assuming rate cuts are treated as random, economic outcomes as random, and the former is conditioned on the latter)
@@joshb7718 I used wrong phrase. I meant that future interest rate curve represents a combination of two potential scenarios weighted by their probabilities. In the 'normal' scenario, Fed maintains a steady path for interest rates. In the 'emergency' scenario, a recession occurs, prompting the Fed to reduce rates to zero or near zero. The curve reflects the market's assessment of both possibilities.
Mark! You said you'll be able to stretch across 3 seats on your AC flight. Have you used business class on those intercontinental AC flights? It's equivalent to first class on other carriers. Nothing beats the filet mignon, a selection of wines to go with, and those lovely pods to lie back in.
Hi Mark, how do you find a NAV in financial statements for KMP.UN and IIP.UN? I did find it for CAR.UN, but it seems like Killam and Interrent are reporting it differently. Additionally, are you still invested in the KMP.UN and IIP.UN or have the price reached NAV per share also for these?
Mark what is your opinion on CELH as an income play. Forward EPS around 1-1.5 so Forward PE is around 30-35 for a company that’s growing 20%+ per year in revenue. Cash flows look good but seems to have taken a hit due to lower Q3 revenues expected. Seems like an overreaction in the long term and IV looks good for the wheel type of strategy you use
Hey Mark, Thanks a lot for all the great content you do for the community Can i ask if the cfa 2025 content would be still taught by you?Also it would be up to date as of the changes for 2025 right? as i've heard that the company has been sold(from random sources) Thanks
It depends on what level for 2025, and what sections. I don't do any of the newer readings at L1/L2. However, many of the readings have not changed year-over-year, so my voice is still there. I do almost all of L3 except for Private Wealth Management - far too woke for me to do seriously.
Hi Mark, are you still holding a long position on ONsemi? If so, could you explain why you favor ON over Texas Instruments, considering both companies operate in the analog and discrete chip market, but TI is the market leader?
Hi Dr Meldrum , what is your view on the current inventory level of cooper in China that keeps going up. What about the EV absorption that seems to be going up in China but most countries aren't ready to adopt the EV vehicle due to the maximum distance of the vehicle. BYD growth in South East Asia is currently blocked by the grid that cannot support a growing EV chargers , what are your thoughts about it ? Thanks
you mistakenly missed my question last time- 1)when should i buy applied level after L1 OR L2 lets say i don't know anything about finance ,i want to understand everything you say 2)where should i start learning finance if i dont know anything about it? 3)can cfa l1 be a good start?
Is your rig chart referring to drilling rigs or oil rigs (Production Platform)? To me the term rig is somewhat ambiguous. I have the same confusion when pundits talk about PPI who don't delineate between PPI final demand or PPI intermediate goods. The PPI chart from your chart provider says simply PPI. How do you tell? Inference?
1)when i hear you answer what positions you have taken and why you have taken it feels like you know what you are doing and you are extremely confident,how you are so confident and have so much conviction? 2)do you consider you just cant be wrong after all these years? 3)what do you think about different investment books and their philosophies they talk about?WOuld you recommend to spend time reading those? 4)is it possible to be only profitable and incur no loss if i have enough experience like yourself? 5)how do you know you have enough experience in capital markets? learnt all the lessons to be learn in the capital markets
1)you said most important factor in consistently earning from capital markets is continuous education ,what do you mean by that? 2)you said there was a time when you are continuously learning new lessons and loosing money,how do you know you have learnt all the lessons to be learnt? 3)are you learning any new lessons nowadays 4)whenever i see a documentary or any news i see traders have so many screens and so many information on each screen that it looks like they are launching a spacecraft? IS IT NECESSARY? 5)do you do that kind of stuff?
Hi Mark, could you clarify the Long July 2025 trade? If you're expecting fewer rate cuts than the market, wouldn't that suggest the contract price should be lower than its current level? The current contract price is around 96.955, indicating the market is pricing in a 225 bps cut. If your expectation is for fewer cuts, wouldn’t the price be lower than 96.955?
Hello Mark, I wanted to ask your opinion on the amount of time you estimate is necessary to dedicate in order to maintain an actively managed portfolio efficiently. I know it depends on the market environment, etc., and that it won't always require the same amount of time. I work full-time in wealth management (8:30 am until 8:00 pm), and I could dedicate 5-6 hours a week, taking advantage of the 2 hours we have for lunch. I believe I have the knowledge to position myself in an informed way at the sector/market level and start doing it through options, but when I think about getting into specific stocks, I am overwhelmed by the vast universe that exists and the hours that need to be dedicated to understanding each one of them. Another option is to index and forget about active management, although giving up aiming for returns >20%, as you've mentioned on some occasion, seems to me too high an opportunity cost not to try. Could you please share your opinion on this?
How would you describe the catalyst for fx rates changes when interest rates change, I understand that interest rate expectations affect libor rates and libor rates rising/dropping are directly making a currency strengthen/weaken with some arbitrage-like pressure? I try to grip the idea from L2 derivatives on how both sides of the currency swap must equate. So if rate cut is fully expected like it is now in the US, and it is already in libor rates, the actual cut might not even weaken the usd any more, it's dependent on the expectations of further cuts and even some relative strenghtening is possible? In other words: if interest rate path was going to be exactly as expected by the markets going forward, it wouldn't affect the fx rates at all? Or would the widening/narrowing interest rate differentials still affect the fx rates as time passes?
You recently mentioned that CAPREIT is now fairly priced, but if the Bank of Canada continues cutting, its net asset value is going to keep rising right (by IFRS rule)? Any reason to start unloading at mid 50s?
Hello Dr. Mark, I really appreciate your weekly market outlook and learn so much from you every week. The addition of more countries has been a great way to bring in a global perspective. Since India is the fifth-largest economy with a stable mid-to-high growth rate, it would be valuable to hear your analysis and views on its economic indicators, if you believe it adds value to your market outlook series. Thanks!
1)in last q and a you told the same daily habits to follow to be good at anything when asked about what daily habits to follow to be good in finance ,can you elaborate it please? 2)how do you have so much knowledge and confidence in finance ,like anyone asks you a question you have an answer?HOW CAN I DEVELOP IT? I AM 25 YRS OLD 3) would you say investing and trading is like betting or gambling?
It was said several times, that one should manage risk and returns will take care of itself. What spesificaly do you mean by risk management. Is it about Beta? What kind of risk measure should one use?
Dear Dr. Meldrum, to your introductory comment about extending the deadline. I had checked my email - and have not recieved any emails to that subject. Maybe it's because I am already a Applied Level Subscriber. Just FYI. Greetings and as usual - great video.
I did the same and as well, I'm already an Applied Level subscriber (have been for a couple years). Just want to make sure that my subscription is good and no action is required of me before this Sept 30 deadline.
Hi Mark, thanks for the Updates. I want to ask about the "worried looking fella at 32:28 At 33:14 you mention increasing money market funds versus pricing in too many rate cuts. I miss the logical link. Could you please elaborate or point me to where to look for the relationship? I can't follow your point.
Hey Mark! Could you please compare different ways of shorting a stock that has very liquid options? How do you decide between shorting a stock directly vs using options? I use IBKR, and if I understand correctly, the cash I get from shorting stocks directly offsets the cost of borrowing those stocks. Does it sound right? Thank you!
Hi Mark, couple of questions: - I am interested in the Insurance sub sector, do you plan to create any content about this sub sector or can insurance companies be considered within the Banking sector? - You mentioned that is better to be sector specialist than a generalist. How could I know what sectors to specialize? Which sector would you pick is you had to chose one to specialize on? The one that I feel more atracted to or the one with more opportunities in the market?
Looking at ABR , I will need to wait until 4th of october to lock in a gain (currently ~12%) due to personal account dealing rules. But i am wondering if I should just hold it over the long term for the dividend or at least wait until october 25th for any DOJ news. I Like the prospect of deep value and wonder if it's worth switching into another Idea more in line with that for now. if you don't already, you should set up a SIM pin on your phones for security.
Regarding the increase in money market funds, have you looked at it as a percent of total assets? Would be an interesting picture historically. Makes sense for it to continue to rise in nominal terms
Mark regarding WTI what are your thoughts on Cushing tank farm have continued draws and are now around 24.7mm bbl which is approaching operational low level of 20mm bbls.
My move from Nvidia into REITS is proving worth it. I was wondering if you could cover any warning signs I should watch for that could suggest fall in REIT prices?
I'm definitely in your camp of starting with 50 seems excessive and this FOMC likes retaining optionality. I just read Nick Timiraos' WSJ Pice: Fed Rate-Cut Dilemma. I am taking pause but I wonder if his piece has enough sway for the FedWatch Tool to show a 50/50 on 25vs50bps. Wouldn't it be out of character for the Fed to make a 50bps move without very clear data pointing in a clear direction? Right now things are very mixed...
You say that typically a curve is in contango when there is oversupply. However, markets are forward looking, wouldn't this CL curve be in contango now if speculators are forecasting a supply glut? And also, how did CL go negative in 2020 if the spot at the time was I think around $20 a barrel?
26:27 Dr. Mark, when MoM Export Prices declined more than the Import Prices MoM, can we conclude that this is a net negative contribution to GDP at the margin? Thanks!
Can I know the reason for why you are not using valuation for your investment decisions and what are your key tools/strategies for investment decisions please?
I work an 8-5 for an investment advisory firm. I have opened a paper portfolio with IB as I go through the applied options curriculum, but I cannot trade during market hours as I am at work. How do you recommend getting live market experience for someone in my shoes?
Not a question of general interest. This is likely not meant to be a 1:1 Q&A. Ask interesting things that stimulates all the viewers, not just yourSELF.
Unless you are day trading, I assume you can set up GTC (Good till cancelled) orders, with appropriate limit prices before or after market opens/closes and hope the market gives you those prices. Mark also places limit orders during the market, and sometimes those orders don't get filled. You may still have live market experience by following up with news / earnings / macroeconomics after the market and set your portfolio accordingly.
Hi Mark, I really enjoyed your Costco video and to learn to apply that thinking I started reading target’s 10k but they clearly mentioned that they expect revenue to grow by 4% per year. So should I dive in more or is that the best revenue estimate as given by the management
How do you size large currency conversions? (i.e. usd.cad pair). I am mostly interested in the US market & bonds long term. Its just that fx is notoriously difficult to forecast, and wonder if I should time it at all, even for large positions (more than 300K). Given today's economic situation, where interest rate parity as well as future cuts are priced in, recent decline in oil prices (weakening cad). I know I can go long synthetic, however I do want to stay in U.S market long term, and prefer USD.
Thoughts on GM, having declining vehicle sales from 6.30m in 2021 or 6.19m in 2023. Whereas, revenues have grown from $127bn in 2021 to $171.8bn in 2023. This shows that the increase in revenues is only driven by higher vehicle prices, as volumes decline. So, if inflation decelerates, do you see that as a risk for lower revenues?
1. Why do you calculate return on an options trade using margin required and not the full collateral as you often say you would take delivery of the underlying, implying that you have the cash needed for the full underlying. If you have the cash needed, why not calculate the option return using that instead? 2. If you don’t often have the full cash collateral and you take delivery, do you just go into a margin loan with IB and pay the interest rate while you are selling calls, etc?
Hi Mark. I’m modeling an upstream oil and gas producer that hedges over 50% of its natural gas production and around 20% of its oil production. For my projections, I’d like to present a few scenarios. When calculating revenue, would you recommend incorporating gains/losses from derivative contracts? If so, how should I estimate the price at which they could hedge, especially when projecting out multiple years? For example, if I’m forecasting oil prices at ~$40 in year 4 for a stress case, how can I reasonably estimate the futures curve at that point to inform my hedging assumptions, considering the company typically locks in hedges only a year out or less?
1)in the last q and a you when I asked how can I be a numbers person you said don’t be a numbers person ,this question actually arised BECAUSE I heard a lot of professionals talk that you have to be good with numbers ,so I ASSUMED you got to be good with numbers to be good in finance 2) you talked about generalist and specialist in how many sectors you should be or aim to be a specialist in? 3)what is passive trading you told me in last q and a for a 9-5 job guy? 4)do you care who asks good questions or not ,,do you care about these stuffs?
One more question: - Are there any video/list in your YT Channel where you explain step by step how to read the macroeconomic indicators that you walk us through in your weekly market Outlook vídeos? Note: Your subscribers in Europe are craving for the day when the MM live sessions are held in the afternoon.
Money market inflows could be justified by September seasonality effect, as equity indices over the past 5-6 years have performed negatively this month?
Hey Mark! On the July'25 ZQ play, did you mean that a short position would be the play if it's been overdone/too dovish? The predicted rate cuts are way too high so price is currently way up - so that's a short if one's thesis is that the predicted rate cuts are way over done. What am I missing here?
Can't the increase in money markets not be the reinvestment of distributions? 6tn in MM funds * 5% yield ->300M -> ~25 bn per month in distributions that might be reinvested?
not trying to throw you under the bus but I have seen many market participants quoting the headline inflation number when convenient, ie, at times it counts and times it does not
Hi Mark, can you provide the link of the BofA Global Research report? Thank you.
Hey Mark! Revisited a video you did in Apr 2020 when oil went negative and you mentioned "there's nowhere else to go other than the S&P500". How do you balance that "long-only" viewpoint with the current overvaluation (since you shorted SPY and IWM) with regards to your long positions, theta sleeve, etc. My strategy has been to just keep my weighted beta delta dollars in check & patiently waiting for red days to sell puts across different asset classes (TLT, equities, etc.), is there more nuance to this?
Hi Mark
Shouldn't you be going short ZQ July25 to take a hawkish bet?
Also don't you trade SR3 in order to take calls on the entire curve since it's active till 2030?
Sorry - yes short.
Hi Mark,
I have some questions:
1. Have you noticed that your knowledge has compounded over time, making it easier to learn and retain new information as a result of your growing base of prior knowledge?
2. Apart from personal interest in a particular sector, what other factors should one consider before choosing a sector to specialize in? Did you choose real estate based purely on interest or was it by chance? If you had to do it all over again and couldn't choose real estate, which sector would you pick?
Do you have any thoughts on BMW after the recall announced last week? The stock dropped significantly, trading at a NTM PE of 4.7x and dividend yield of 8.44%. Could be an interesting play similar to your GM thesis. Although I must note that unlike GM, BMW is expected to have negative EPS and revenue growth YoY in 2024.
Why should I buy stocks when I can buy leaps? I can manufacture the dividend by playing theta, it requires less capital and it protects from the downside risk. Moreover, I’ll be paying the rf less and less as rates are beeing cut. I’ll roll them say 3 months before expiration. What am I missing?
Dr. Mark . Thanks for the post. I am an applied level student. I'm from India which is an emerging market. The security market is booming there and I believe it is less informationally efficient Market compared to US markets. Do you think that it will give more returns in options market compared to US markets. Kindly advise
The future rate curve reflects a joint probability of the 'normal' path for the Fed, where rates follow a steady trajectory, and an 'emergency' path, where a recession hits, prompting the Fed to cut rates to or near zero.
is there a canonical yield-curve model (something analogous to fama/french for factors) that's typically taught in courses or used in practice (that I could look up to educate myself)? I don't understand why you'd set this up as a joint probability like you've described (assuming rate cuts are treated as random, economic outcomes as random, and the former is conditioned on the latter)
@@joshb7718 I used wrong phrase. I meant that future interest rate curve represents a combination of two potential scenarios weighted by their probabilities. In the 'normal' scenario, Fed maintains a steady path for interest rates. In the 'emergency' scenario, a recession occurs, prompting the Fed to reduce rates to zero or near zero. The curve reflects the market's assessment of both possibilities.
@@MrDeadlyCrowthank you!
Silverblatt is alive! Probably back from the Hamptons.. -> sheet version is now the 13.09.2024
Mark! You said you'll be able to stretch across 3 seats on your AC flight. Have you used business class on those intercontinental AC flights? It's equivalent to first class on other carriers. Nothing beats the filet mignon, a selection of wines to go with, and those lovely pods to lie back in.
Hi Mark, how do you find a NAV in financial statements for KMP.UN and IIP.UN? I did find it for CAR.UN, but it seems like Killam and Interrent are reporting it differently. Additionally, are you still invested in the KMP.UN and IIP.UN or have the price reached NAV per share also for these?
Mark what is your opinion on CELH as an income play. Forward EPS around 1-1.5 so Forward PE is around 30-35 for a company that’s growing 20%+ per year in revenue. Cash flows look good but seems to have taken a hit due to lower Q3 revenues expected. Seems like an overreaction in the long term and IV looks good for the wheel type of strategy you use
Excited to see you back in Costa Rica! Hopefully will hear Notes from Underground breakdown when you get a little bit of time.
Hey Mark, Thanks a lot for all the great content you do for the community
Can i ask if the cfa 2025 content would be still taught by you?Also it would be up to date as of the changes for 2025 right?
as i've heard that the company has been sold(from random sources)
Thanks
It depends on what level for 2025, and what sections. I don't do any of the newer readings at L1/L2. However, many of the readings have not changed year-over-year, so my voice is still there. I do almost all of L3 except for Private Wealth Management - far too woke for me to do seriously.
@@MarkMeldrum cool!! Thanks a lot
I'm preparing for L1 and was excited to learn from you....would you say that 70-80% of that is your voice?
Hi Mark, are you still holding a long position on ONsemi? If so, could you explain why you favor ON over Texas Instruments, considering both companies operate in the analog and discrete chip market, but TI is the market leader?
Hi Dr Meldrum , what is your view on the current inventory level of cooper in China that keeps going up. What about the EV absorption that seems to be going up in China but most countries aren't ready to adopt the EV vehicle due to the maximum distance of the vehicle. BYD growth in South East Asia is currently blocked by the grid that cannot support a growing EV chargers , what are your thoughts about it ?
Thanks
you mistakenly missed my question last time-
1)when should i buy applied level after L1 OR L2 lets say i don't know anything about finance ,i want to understand everything you say
2)where should i start learning finance if i dont know anything about it?
3)can cfa l1 be a good start?
Is your rig chart referring to drilling rigs or oil rigs (Production Platform)? To me the term rig is somewhat ambiguous. I have the same confusion when pundits talk about PPI who don't delineate between PPI final demand or PPI intermediate goods. The PPI chart from your chart provider says simply PPI. How do you tell? Inference?
1)when i hear you answer what positions you have taken and why you have taken it feels like you know what you are doing and you are extremely confident,how you are so confident and have so much conviction?
2)do you consider you just cant be wrong after all these years?
3)what do you think about different investment books and their philosophies they talk about?WOuld you recommend to spend time reading those?
4)is it possible to be only profitable and incur no loss if i have enough experience like yourself?
5)how do you know you have enough experience in capital markets? learnt all the lessons to be learn in the capital markets
1)you said most important factor in consistently earning from capital markets is continuous education ,what do you mean by that?
2)you said there was a time when you are continuously learning new lessons and loosing money,how do you know you have learnt all the lessons to be learnt?
3)are you learning any new lessons nowadays
4)whenever i see a documentary or any news i see traders have so many screens and so many information on each screen that it looks like they are launching a spacecraft? IS IT NECESSARY?
5)do you do that kind of stuff?
Hi Mark, could you clarify the Long July 2025 trade? If you're expecting fewer rate cuts than the market, wouldn't that suggest the contract price should be lower than its current level? The current contract price is around 96.955, indicating the market is pricing in a 225 bps cut. If your expectation is for fewer cuts, wouldn’t the price be lower than 96.955?
Hello Mark, I wanted to ask your opinion on the amount of time you estimate is necessary to dedicate in order to maintain an actively managed portfolio efficiently. I know it depends on the market environment, etc., and that it won't always require the same amount of time. I work full-time in wealth management (8:30 am until 8:00 pm), and I could dedicate 5-6 hours a week, taking advantage of the 2 hours we have for lunch. I believe I have the knowledge to position myself in an informed way at the sector/market level and start doing it through options, but when I think about getting into specific stocks, I am overwhelmed by the vast universe that exists and the hours that need to be dedicated to understanding each one of them. Another option is to index and forget about active management, although giving up aiming for returns >20%, as you've mentioned on some occasion, seems to me too high an opportunity cost not to try. Could you please share your opinion on this?
Considering tomorrow's Fed decision, isn’t it the right setup for long straddle for the int sensitive stocks/etfs?
How would you describe the catalyst for fx rates changes when interest rates change, I understand that interest rate expectations affect libor rates and libor rates rising/dropping are directly making a currency strengthen/weaken with some arbitrage-like pressure? I try to grip the idea from L2 derivatives on how both sides of the currency swap must equate.
So if rate cut is fully expected like it is now in the US, and it is already in libor rates, the actual cut might not even weaken the usd any more, it's dependent on the expectations of further cuts and even some relative strenghtening is possible? In other words: if interest rate path was going to be exactly as expected by the markets going forward, it wouldn't affect the fx rates at all? Or would the widening/narrowing interest rate differentials still affect the fx rates as time passes?
You recently mentioned that CAPREIT is now fairly priced, but if the Bank of Canada continues cutting, its net asset value is going to keep rising right (by IFRS rule)? Any reason to start unloading at mid 50s?
Hello Dr. Mark,
I really appreciate your weekly market outlook and learn so much from you every week. The addition of more countries has been a great way to bring in a global perspective. Since India is the fifth-largest economy with a stable mid-to-high growth rate, it would be valuable to hear your analysis and views on its economic indicators, if you believe it adds value to your market outlook series.
Thanks!
1)in last q and a you told the same daily habits to follow to be good at anything when asked about what daily habits to follow to be good in finance ,can you elaborate it please?
2)how do you have so much knowledge and confidence in finance ,like anyone asks you a question you have an answer?HOW CAN I DEVELOP IT? I AM 25 YRS OLD
3) would you say investing and trading is like betting or gambling?
It was said several times, that one should manage risk and returns will take care of itself. What spesificaly do you mean by risk management. Is it about Beta? What kind of risk measure should one use?
Dear Dr. Meldrum,
to your introductory comment about extending the deadline.
I had checked my email - and have not recieved any emails to that subject.
Maybe it's because I am already a Applied Level Subscriber.
Just FYI.
Greetings and as usual - great video.
I did the same and as well, I'm already an Applied Level subscriber (have been for a couple years). Just want to make sure that my subscription is good and no action is required of me before this Sept 30 deadline.
Hi Mark, thanks for the Updates.
I want to ask about the "worried looking fella at 32:28
At 33:14 you mention increasing money market funds versus pricing in too many rate cuts. I miss the logical link. Could you please elaborate or point me to where to look for the relationship? I can't follow your point.
Hey Mark! Could you please compare different ways of shorting a stock that has very liquid options? How do you decide between shorting a stock directly vs using options?
I use IBKR, and if I understand correctly, the cash I get from shorting stocks directly offsets the cost of borrowing those stocks. Does it sound right?
Thank you!
Hi Dr Mark,
What is the difference in the fed funds future price term structure between current (blue line) and settle (yellow line) ?
Thanks
Costa Ricaaaaaaaaa market outlooks!
Hi Mark, couple of questions:
- I am interested in the Insurance sub sector, do you plan to create any content about this sub sector or can insurance companies be considered within the Banking sector?
- You mentioned that is better to be sector specialist than a generalist. How could I know what sectors to specialize? Which sector would you pick is you had to chose one to specialize on? The one that I feel more atracted to or the one with more opportunities in the market?
Looking at ABR , I will need to wait until 4th of october to lock in a gain (currently ~12%) due to personal account dealing rules. But i am wondering if I should just hold it over the long term for the dividend or at least wait until october 25th for any DOJ news. I Like the prospect of deep value and wonder if it's worth switching into another Idea more in line with that for now.
if you don't already, you should set up a SIM pin on your phones for security.
Regarding the increase in money market funds, have you looked at it as a percent of total assets? Would be an interesting picture historically. Makes sense for it to continue to rise in nominal terms
Mark regarding WTI what are your thoughts on Cushing tank farm have continued draws and are now around 24.7mm bbl which is approaching operational low level of 20mm bbls.
My move from Nvidia into REITS is proving worth it. I was wondering if you could cover any warning signs I should watch for that could suggest fall in REIT prices?
I'm definitely in your camp of starting with 50 seems excessive and this FOMC likes retaining optionality. I just read Nick Timiraos' WSJ Pice: Fed Rate-Cut Dilemma. I am taking pause but I wonder if his piece has enough sway for the FedWatch Tool to show a 50/50 on 25vs50bps. Wouldn't it be out of character for the Fed to make a 50bps move without very clear data pointing in a clear direction? Right now things are very mixed...
You say that typically a curve is in contango when there is oversupply. However, markets are forward looking, wouldn't this CL curve be in contango now if speculators are forecasting a supply glut?
And also, how did CL go negative in 2020 if the spot at the time was I think around $20 a barrel?
26:27 Dr. Mark, when MoM Export Prices declined more than the Import Prices MoM, can we conclude that this is a net negative contribution to GDP at the margin? Thanks!
You should release the footage of the fight between you and the seller of the house in costa rica
Can I know the reason for why you are not using valuation for your investment decisions and what are your key tools/strategies for investment decisions please?
I work an 8-5 for an investment advisory firm. I have opened a paper portfolio with IB as I go through the applied options curriculum, but I cannot trade during market hours as I am at work. How do you recommend getting live market experience for someone in my shoes?
Not a question of general interest. This is likely not meant to be a 1:1 Q&A.
Ask interesting things that stimulates all the viewers, not just yourSELF.
@@QaseemAlmani-u1k I don't mind the question. It made me think. I'm curious what Mark would think about the question too.
Plan and place your trades accordingly
Unless you are day trading, I assume you can set up GTC (Good till cancelled) orders, with appropriate limit prices before or after market opens/closes and hope the market gives you those prices. Mark also places limit orders during the market, and sometimes those orders don't get filled. You may still have live market experience by following up with news / earnings / macroeconomics after the market and set your portfolio accordingly.
1Y rate is at 4.00%, and the FFR is at 5.33% now -- Why does such 133 bps difference imply ten 25 bps cut? Can someone explain, thank you!
Mark, why do you feel important to tell about a vehicle sales? Is it some sort of proxy to consumer willingness to spend? (C component in GDP as well)
Hi Mark,
I really enjoyed your Costco video and to learn to apply that thinking I started reading target’s 10k but they clearly mentioned that they expect revenue to grow by 4% per year.
So should I dive in more or is that the best revenue estimate as given by the management
Use their guidance as the base case. You can disagree with them with best or worst case scenarios.
How do you size large currency conversions? (i.e. usd.cad pair). I am mostly interested in the US market & bonds long term. Its just that fx is notoriously difficult to forecast, and wonder if I should time it at all, even for large positions (more than 300K). Given today's economic situation, where interest rate parity as well as future cuts are priced in, recent decline in oil prices (weakening cad). I know I can go long synthetic, however I do want to stay in U.S market long term, and prefer USD.
11:00 AM Tuesday: I see in CME 61% in favor 50 bps rate cut. Aren't you worried of your TLT short call?
Thoughts on GM, having declining vehicle sales from 6.30m in 2021 or 6.19m in 2023. Whereas, revenues have grown from $127bn in 2021 to $171.8bn in 2023. This shows that the increase in revenues is only driven by higher vehicle prices, as volumes decline. So, if inflation decelerates, do you see that as a risk for lower revenues?
1. Why do you calculate return on an options trade using margin required and not the full collateral as you often say you would take delivery of the underlying, implying that you have the cash needed for the full underlying. If you have the cash needed, why not calculate the option return using that instead?
2. If you don’t often have the full cash collateral and you take delivery, do you just go into a margin loan with IB and pay the interest rate while you are selling calls, etc?
Hi Mark. I’m modeling an upstream oil and gas producer that hedges over 50% of its natural gas production and around 20% of its oil production. For my projections, I’d like to present a few scenarios. When calculating revenue, would you recommend incorporating gains/losses from derivative contracts? If so, how should I estimate the price at which they could hedge, especially when projecting out multiple years? For example, if I’m forecasting oil prices at ~$40 in year 4 for a stress case, how can I reasonably estimate the futures curve at that point to inform my hedging assumptions, considering the company typically locks in hedges only a year out or less?
1)in the last q and a you when I asked how can I be a numbers person you said don’t be a numbers person ,this question actually arised BECAUSE I heard a lot of professionals talk that you have to be good with numbers ,so I ASSUMED you got to be good with numbers to be good in finance
2) you talked about generalist and specialist in how many sectors you should be or aim to be a specialist in?
3)what is passive trading you told me in last q and a for a 9-5 job guy?
4)do you care who asks good questions or not ,,do you care about these stuffs?
One more question:
- Are there any video/list in your YT Channel where you explain step by step how to read the macroeconomic indicators that you walk us through in your weekly market Outlook vídeos?
Note: Your subscribers in Europe are craving for the day when the MM live sessions are held in the afternoon.
Yes, there is
ua-cam.com/video/LMh85imDZ1I/v-deo.htmlsi=TKpiXuqyU8eUqUMI
Money market inflows could be justified by September seasonality effect, as equity indices over the past 5-6 years have performed negatively this month?
Hey Mark! On the July'25 ZQ play, did you mean that a short position would be the play if it's been overdone/too dovish? The predicted rate cuts are way too high so price is currently way up - so that's a short if one's thesis is that the predicted rate cuts are way over done. What am I missing here?
Yes - short.
Great analysis
Why is it bearish if the CL curves move into contango?
Can't the increase in money markets not be the reinvestment of distributions? 6tn in MM funds * 5% yield ->300M -> ~25 bn per month in distributions that might be reinvested?
Early bird gets the worm
Dr. Mark I wish you can cover Aramco stock thank you
Not interesting. They have such low extraction cost, consider it a very deep ITM call on oil.
You should Short ZQ July if you think market priced too many cuts
Yes - short.
not trying to throw you under the bus but I have seen many market participants quoting the headline inflation number when convenient, ie, at times it counts and times it does not
Do you think being an investor helps you as an entrepreneur and vice versa?
JPM and Citi expects 50 bps 😅