Thank you for quality programming.< What you are describing here is accurate - the flight to safety to the US stock market and dollar. This is what is keeping the market going at this time and preventing a crash. This "melt UP" phase will go on for a while, then as the global economy crashes so will US markets only harder due to the "No Win scenario" that has been created by so much obscene debt. Next comes the "Default Phase" with mega-massive bankruptcies and lastly "Asset Seizures" where banks and the Fed government will simply declare an extreme national emergency to justify the crisis and debit your account directly. The fools will think that this could never happen. The actual legislation for this type of action is already in place. My advice to anyone feeling the heat in this inflation, just trade long term more than ever, I have made over 175k from day trading with Florence Osborn in few weeks, this is one of the best medium to backup your assets incase it goes bearish..
Nice info, i appreciate your concern this will help a lot especially to the young bitcoin investors who have no or lesser knowledge on how bitcoin market works.
No one, NO ONE, can argue Florence Osborn at least currently, the best out there, even when Bitcoin is looking bearish with the market sentiment swinging low. But they kept us grounded with their real analysis, just the facts in the charts.
Most economist's have never heard of Ludwig von Mises. "There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought on by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crises should come sooner as the result of voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved." Ludwig von Mises Thanks Jeff!
Jeff is very critical of Austrians tho. Jeff is great with understanding the current system. But he is too used to the current system to see how the Austrians has a lot more right than wrong.
@@biscottigelato8574 the problem is it is difficult to apply Austrian economics with it's system of value to our current system of manipulating massive quantities of debt. Sure all the fundamentals are there and the cycles are the same but the controls and obfuscation of a debt based, multinational, system allow for a lot more manipulation. 2008 was a good example, many knew it was coming, and had put money on it, but only a few managed to hang in until all the manipulation finally collapsed, even then they still made sure almost no one responsible suffered from it.
The Austrian conclusion is exactly what my analysis came to back in 08. The FED thought was better the devil you know than the one you don't. Further it would have been irresponsible if they didnt try to save the system. At the time in the fog of war it was a reasonable hope even if i thought it was futile that the economy could be mended so they had to give it a chance. At that time I knew Humpty Dumpty couldn't be put back together again..and it would all come to a bad end.
The Mises institute is located in Alabama because its founders believed that Alabama has always valued freedom above all. Slavery = freedom, gotta love the Austrians. There's a reason why every upper class fascist type in the Western world is an Austrian, and it has little do with fiscal responsibility of any kind.
I remember an Austrian fellow (a painter, with little artistic merit) who, in the 1930's and 1940's caused a great deal of horror and chaos...., Luckily, he died in 1945
40 years ago, as an undergrad at Berkeley, I shared a long car drive with a guy working on his PhD dissertation on economics. His subject? German hyperinflation of the 1920s. What luck! I peppered him with questions about his opinion on how exactly the Versailles treaty, which ended WWI, played into destroying the German economy, leading to the German mark becoming worthless. I was stunned.... he had never heard of the Versailles treaty. He knew absolutely nothing about the historical underpinnings of his PhD dissertation. I asked him what exactly he was writing. He said "equations " He probably became the in house expert on hyperinflation for the world bank or some other institution (like Ben Bernanke), and is certainly retired by now. After that, we rode the rest of the way in silence, and i never again had any respect for the "discipline" of economics.
You're aware people don't know everything right? Especially people in their early twenties going through education in a conformist institution. Also that was one guy. Just because one guy didn't know this one thing doesn't mean you lose respect for an entire discipline. Wow after reading what I just said, what a ridiculous comment you made 🤯
Yes... and I once took a long ride with a fool writing her phd in history on the great depression who hadn't bothered learning the most basic principles of economics. For a long time, it didn't occur to me that I should never again have any respect for the "discipline" of history. Now I understand and there is nothing else wrong with me that a funeral couldn't cure.
Here's my beef... A bag of mixed nuts less than 2 years ago was $2.80. A couple of months ago its now $4.50 with less nuts "shrinkage". But has only gone up to $4.80.today. I am supposed to get excited because they are not $6 bucks.. Hardly
I love your videos Jeff and I've learned so much from you. I do take a little issue with your assessment that consumer price pressures have eased since June/July. I was at the grocery store today and I can say for certain consumer price pressures are still off the hook.
You're the best, Jeff! "Where there is confusion, a man who knows what he wants stands a pretty good chance of getting it." - James Coburn (Duck, You Sucker - motion picture, 1971)
Thanks again, Jeff. I begin salivating like a pavlovian dog the minute I see a new video come out from Eurodollar University. I confess I miss Emil, but as you Jeff were and are the brains of the outfit, the educational part is still the same. On the mainstream financial media, it flabbergasts me that they seem to have abandoned the core role of independent media which is to ask the critical questions. It would be fantastic to hear a journalist ask the central bankers ”What evidence do you have that QE/QT works?” or ”If you don’t know how much money there’s out there, how would you know that your policies have any effect?”
I wish Jeff would basically tell us what is going to happen?? Like easy money coming? Layoffs? Interest rate cuts like what should we be doing then? What should Joe Sixpack prepare for ?
This is the first time I have understood what the talk is about because it matches experience. "Burning "it" to the ground" seems to fit the evidence, Economics only applies to Dark Money, all the rest is mere ecological survival.
Absolutely cracked up with that WSJ article on the 10 year! To me, the movement of long duration bonds to inversion is perfectly logical. There has been no real monetary growth to begin with and you have the fed smashing the short term rates on fighting ghosts. Base case - a recession to start around the end of Q1 and inflation to be non existent in Q3 to Q4 23. May god save the Fed if we end up in another deflationary environment! PS - about the biggest toolkit of the Fed - narration - just view the last presser when a reporter asked his opinion about the ripping stock market. That’s a slam dunk for Jeff’s hypotheses right there!
Energy and Food Consumption appear to have a great impact on Currency Value and Economic health of modern Technologic Society. Europe is facing a 50 Billion Cubic Meter reduction in Natural Gas indefinitely. Second largest Steel Foundry in Germany closed and 21 Chemical Plants shutdown in EU. They can't Print Energy and Food nor can they compete in a Global Economy against the likes of China or India because it takes Energy Food to perform work. They can't produce products at scale to Hawk in the Market. No Merch, no Sales. No Sales, no Revenue. TY Jeff. I'm starting to understand some of the Dynamics involved in the Economy beyond Fire and Meat. I'm losing a little Caveman luster thanks to Euro Dollar University.
All roads leave to and away from Sraffa's "model" of an economy. Unfortunately, Sraffa's framework was hijacked by the age of "high theory" to trash Hayek and the Austrians, and, later, as a fig leaf by Marxists ... bless their hearts one and all. We economists need to retool beginning with models of self-reproducing economic systems that function well but, sometimes, fail spectacularly. There is a lot of work between Sraffa's accounting system and a "monetary" economy. So we will have to burn down what passes for monetary theory and replace it by a credit theory of money. Basically, we need a micro/macro model of a credit economy where some of those "credits" dominate transactions and hence are called money. Put differently, we need to begin with Sraffa's analytic framework and build it along the lines of Karl Brunner (shoe leather theory of money), Gurley and Shaw (money in a theory of finance), Pesek and Saving (inside/outside money), and Leijonhufvud (coordination corridors). Combine that with econometric analyses that make efficient use of a priori information. Then we will MAYBE be able to address with precision the kind of macro data that you are flailing away at like an announcer calling a baseball game.
Economics is an area of academic study. So, let's not overrate this subject and ourselves. It is as good as those formulating economic theories (probably out of date) and those using economics (their limited understanding of this subject) to interpret current events and developments. Not in any way complete or proven as a panacea for understanding markets or even for prescribing any policy for any government. Jeff is right. We have given so much regard to economics (without understanding its limitations) that governments and central banks have claimed the front seat in determining interest rates and so determine the rate and pace of business performance and social progress - very politically significant but not a role universally accepted if we look at many economics textbooks. And governments have assumed this role without obvious public accountability and responsibility (can always blame the central bankers?) for poor or wrong monetary policies and decisions!
So true! I was listening to an interview on macrovoices this morning and Eric Townsend spent at least 2 thirds of the interview asking what the Fed would likely do in certain circumstances. And they are bit players on the sidelines! It was very frustrating to listen to.
i have to listen to it... I watched the beginning of one of Eric's recent videos and he mentions Jeff and presents his ideas, asking the guests opinion about them... So Eric is also a viewer :D I want to believe that Eric was playing along with the guest, but in reality realizes that the Fed is of lesser significance. Macrovoices seems to be not delusional like the WSJ and mainstream economics.
@@likesgymnastics5767 Yes absolutely. I think it was much more what the guest was saying rather than Eric and Jeff’s name was mentioned with regards to inflation versus “inflation”.
Why are people paying high prices and are not able to buy what they want because of bare shelfs? If the FED is not affecting the economy then something more nefarious is going on.
i can only imagine that this flaming train wreck of an economy and indeed, the entire world, is only bearable to us onlookers. Of whom, never felt like we had any skin in the game. That long and unending crash is 'over there'. And my limbs and flesh are not being ripped asunder. Quite unlike the people who bought tickets to go along for the ride. But then, we realize that same damned train is carrying firewood and other provisions to our own town. And that we're all gonna starve and freeze to death now. But only if we're truly lucky. Because the survivors are going to be in a lot pain for a lot longer.
I hope you have time in your career to write a book about your thoughts on the yield curve (much like Edward Chancellor did "The Price of Time"), I believe it could become a standard text book for all those reading Economics at School/University. It could be as important as "Security Analysis" or "Manias, Panics and Crashes, or "Reminiscences of a Stock Operator". If you just covered off its action in 2000/2002, 2006/2008 and 2022/ , it would be on a par with Galbraith's work on The Great Crash. It would take pride of place in Russell Napier's Library of Mistakes in Edinburgh.
The 2y is rolling over and the FED is going to be chasing it down next year apparently. Not sure if they will though, just as they ignored the markets before raising, they will probably wait too long in lowering and we are all doomed.
What you are saying is that the free market is setting the 10 year rate. The fed can manipulate the 10 year by buying bonds, which shows a false market for a low yielding bond.
Wow. That was the best one yet. IMO, the Fed seems to want larger positive interest rates but the government won't stop spending and they are bankrupting themselves and the government in the process. Why do they want these rates? It isn't like the banks made savings accounts attractive again.
I need to know what you think about next year and The Depression. P.S. I thought you were going to suggest burning down literally everything. My preference going forward - 'The Great Restart' !
surely all the reduction in price in other sectors is simply from the reduction in demand and the extraction of liquid capital, its not exactly a good thing
Alright Jeff. I love your show, and I always appreciate what you have to say, but what you just said here at the beginning of this episode is counter to what many people believe with regard to the power of central banks. Can you please comment on Nathan Meyer Rothschild's famous statement of 1815: "I care not what puppet is placed upon the throne of England to rule the Empire on which the sun never sets. The man who controls the British money supply controls the British Empire, and I control the British money supply." Thanks so much in advance.
Jeff. I gotta be honest...I don't have a clue of about 3/4 of everything you're talking about, but I have the sense that I need to understand it. Would you consider doing a series of presentations sometime where you explain some of the basics... like we're 5 years old? For example, I'm still chewing over yesterday's episode.... with the trillions of dollars unaccounted for? Where did that come from? And supposedly quadrillions, globally, in other liabilities? Where did that come from. Is it a gigantic pile of debt secured by a tiny amount of collateral, levered up over and over again? Are these huge QE events by central banks merely an attempt to puff up the value of the collateral that underpins the whole thing? I'm going to keep listening... maybe some of it will sink in.
If there is one thing I am missing from your thinking, and I know this is a big ask, it’s to paint the vision of what an alternative financial universe should look like. Is it just as simple as having the Central Banks dissappear? And what would that mean? Or is it some form of ”Gold standard”? Or do we just need to tweak the Central banks role and mandate? I’d love to see a video where you articulate some of that, knowing full well that its unlikely that you have all the answers.
this video had me laughing. You are a great teacher Jeff and more importantly it seems to me that you have the right idea :D while those WSJ folks are a bunch of clowns. Reminds me of the 20/80 rule. Most people don't really have a deep understanding, despite being in a position where they are educators/communicators. You are top tier though.
I would love to see one week of Bill Dudley's errors and I'm totally serious. I think it would also be very instructive in showing how consistently (and spectacularly, at times) wrong some of these people can be, but yet they continue to be quoted and listened to.
Would someone be so kind to explain this to me in layman terms. When a recession is looming do investors flock towards the (when the yield is inverted ) 2yr yield rather than the 10yr as the yield is higher?
I am not sure I understand your rant. As a non-American I am worried about the geopolitical/economic impact of American policy makers on the rest of the World. Americans want to be number 1. Therefore their currency must be number 1. Now I am sure nobody in the World other than China, wants to be, or even care about having their currency as no 1. But the Americans refuses to accept that if their currency is no 1, they have a responsibility to ensure currency and economic stability. The World will give you Americans the honour to be the World dominant currency, but then you must guarantee dollar price stability. If you cannot guarantee dollar price stability then you cannot be the world no 1 currency. This point links to Jeff’s point in this video. The World now has more than enough evidence that Americans refuse to accept its responsibility of a stable currency towards the World, thus the World must find an alternative. Americans have now made more than enough money off a poor and weak rest of the World economy by deliberately pushing for instability. Jeff just confirms this deliberate push for instability. Privilege comes with responsibility and accountability.
I wish the people who are scared of crypto would dive in...not because its amazing right now, but because its what the industry needs to make sure the technology is applied correctly.
@@CM-zu9vg Sadly I don't have the power, and the problem is much older than the internet. Those foolish enough to use the internet and crypto should be prosecuted (executed) by authorities. But government decides to watch and pick up a terrorist here or there instead.
The problem with economics is the same fundamental problem of all information today, that you stand to make a lot of money and/or power if you can use it to manipulate people's behavior. Clarity, accuracy and transparency of information is undesirable when it conflicts with your own best interests and it's far better to have an inscrutable black box.
Jeff, I think if you put a "thesis" upfront it will help the viewer know "what are they going to get out". And also if you include your "evidence" it will help fitting the pieces together. You present amazing data but to me, it is under-appraciated due to the lack of "spot light".
Ya da ya da ya da....Buy gold because it is shiny and people believe it has value. Peope believe dollar has value. People believe bitcoin has value. If enough people believe something has value, then it is valuable. This principle applies to the Zimbabwe Dollar as well as the US dollar.
When economists say that the laws of thermodynamics do not apply to economics: what hubris. With global debt to GDP of 400%. Global supplies of most geological commodities at or near permanent decline especially fossil fuels. How can the current application and interpretation of economic theories continue. Add the impacts of global warming, some 80 million displaced people, aging demographics and belligerent autocratic leaders.
If the yield curve is right isn't that just indicating that the market is betting on massive downside risk? Sounds pretty bleak, because if the FED has little to no influence, it's not going to be able to backstop anything? 2008 wasn't very fun
Thank you for quality programming.< What you are describing here is accurate - the flight to safety to the US stock market and dollar. This is what is keeping the market going at this time and preventing a crash. This "melt UP" phase will go on for a while, then as the global economy crashes so will US markets only harder due to the "No Win scenario" that has been created by so much obscene debt. Next comes the "Default Phase" with mega-massive bankruptcies and lastly "Asset Seizures" where banks and the Fed government will simply declare an extreme national emergency to justify the crisis and debit your account directly. The fools will think that this could never happen. The actual legislation for this type of action is already in place. My advice to anyone feeling the heat in this inflation, just trade long term more than ever, I have made over 175k from day trading with Florence Osborn in few weeks, this is one of the best medium to backup your assets incase it goes bearish..
Nice info, i appreciate your concern this will help a lot especially to the young bitcoin investors who have no or lesser knowledge on how bitcoin market works.
this is not the first time i am hearing of Florence her exploits in the trading world.
No one, NO ONE, can argue Florence Osborn at least currently, the best out there, even when Bitcoin is looking bearish with the market sentiment swinging low. But they kept us grounded with their real analysis, just the facts in the charts.
I just started her program she has been quite impressive with gains and strategies
Most economist's have never heard of Ludwig von Mises. "There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought on by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crises should come sooner as the result of voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved." Ludwig von Mises Thanks Jeff!
Jeff is very critical of Austrians tho. Jeff is great with understanding the current system. But he is too used to the current system to see how the Austrians has a lot more right than wrong.
@@biscottigelato8574 the problem is it is difficult to apply Austrian economics with it's system of value to our current system of manipulating massive quantities of debt.
Sure all the fundamentals are there and the cycles are the same but the controls and obfuscation of a debt based, multinational, system allow for a lot more manipulation.
2008 was a good example, many knew it was coming, and had put money on it, but only a few managed to hang in until all the manipulation finally collapsed, even then they still made sure almost no one responsible suffered from it.
The Austrian conclusion is exactly what my analysis came to back in 08. The FED thought was better the devil you know than the one you don't. Further it would have been irresponsible if they didnt try to save the system. At the time in the fog of war it was a reasonable hope even if i thought it was futile that the economy could be mended so they had to give it a chance. At that time I knew Humpty Dumpty couldn't be put back together again..and it would all come to a bad end.
The Mises institute is located in Alabama because its founders believed that Alabama has always valued freedom above all. Slavery = freedom, gotta love the Austrians. There's a reason why every upper class fascist type in the Western world is an Austrian, and it has little do with fiscal responsibility of any kind.
I remember an Austrian fellow (a painter, with little artistic merit) who, in the 1930's and 1940's caused a great deal of horror and chaos...., Luckily, he died in 1945
40 years ago, as an undergrad at Berkeley, I shared a long car drive with a guy working on his PhD dissertation on economics. His subject? German hyperinflation of the 1920s. What luck! I peppered him with questions about his opinion on how exactly the Versailles treaty, which ended WWI, played into destroying the German economy, leading to the German mark becoming worthless.
I was stunned.... he had never heard of the Versailles treaty. He knew absolutely nothing about the historical underpinnings of his PhD dissertation.
I asked him what exactly he was writing.
He said "equations "
He probably became the in house expert on hyperinflation for the world bank or some other institution (like Ben Bernanke), and is certainly retired by now.
After that, we rode the rest of the way in silence, and i never again had any respect for the "discipline" of economics.
He's views would be appreciated...seems very actual!
Good example of what happens when you back a desperate, mean animal, into a corner.
You're aware people don't know everything right? Especially people in their early twenties going through education in a conformist institution. Also that was one guy. Just because one guy didn't know this one thing doesn't mean you lose respect for an entire discipline. Wow after reading what I just said, what a ridiculous comment you made 🤯
Yes... and I once took a long ride with a fool writing her phd in history on the great depression who hadn't bothered learning the most basic principles of economics. For a long time, it didn't occur to me that I should never again have any respect for the "discipline" of history. Now I understand and there is nothing else wrong with me that a funeral couldn't cure.
You're getting roasted
They are burning it already for us Jeff
🤣🎯
Soon to be replaced with crypto money CBDCs
Cyberattack time
Yes, but ALL Industries are dystopian. We need a Regime Change!
"economics is not a serious discipline, it is a cult", that hit me hard Jeff, 100% spot on.
Yep. Welcome to human CULTure
A more precise saying would be, the eurodollar university is not a university it's a cult.
@U.S. Grant which cult are you in?
"economics is not a serious discipline. it's a cult". Classic.
@VirgA VA ..................it triggered me !!!!!!
As is much else. Determining that you are in a cult isn't as easy as it might at first seem...
CULTure
Putting that on a t-shirt.
This guy is hilarious, totally wrong, but funny. If you listen to him and his clown buddy Steve, you end up losing your shirt.
Thank you Jeff! Take care everybody!
Likewise and stay vigilant out there. 🙏
Here's my beef... A bag of mixed nuts less than 2 years ago was $2.80. A couple of months ago its now $4.50 with less nuts "shrinkage". But has only gone up to $4.80.today. I am supposed to get excited because they are not $6 bucks.. Hardly
I love your videos Jeff and I've learned so much from you. I do take a little issue with your assessment that consumer price pressures have eased since June/July. I was at the grocery store today and I can say for certain consumer price pressures are still off the hook.
Jeff is like every other economist, he uses the official figures.
Thank you Jeff. Happy Holidays and best wishes for 2023
You're the best, Jeff! "Where there is confusion, a man who knows what he wants stands a pretty good chance of getting it." - James Coburn (Duck, You Sucker - motion picture, 1971)
Thanks again, Jeff. I begin salivating like a pavlovian dog the minute I see a new video come out from Eurodollar University. I confess I miss Emil, but as you Jeff were and are the brains of the outfit, the educational part is still the same. On the mainstream financial media, it flabbergasts me that they seem to have abandoned the core role of independent media which is to ask the critical questions. It would be fantastic to hear a journalist ask the central bankers ”What evidence do you have that QE/QT works?” or ”If you don’t know how much money there’s out there, how would you know that your policies have any effect?”
Love your passion Jeff..
I wish Jeff would basically tell us what is going to happen?? Like easy money coming? Layoffs? Interest rate cuts like what should we be doing then? What should Joe Sixpack prepare for ?
Jeff going beast mode tonight!!!
You are nailing it with the coffing system hypocrysis just exposed whispers haha .
This is the first time I have understood what the talk is about because it matches experience.
"Burning "it" to the ground" seems to fit the evidence, Economics only applies to Dark Money, all the rest is mere ecological survival.
Delivery is better with the directness and passion I'm seeing here. Time to challenge the narrative
The Fed engineering the next crisis a la the great rest, problem/reaction/solution
Absolutely cracked up with that WSJ article on the 10 year! To me, the movement of long duration bonds to inversion is perfectly logical.
There has been no real monetary growth to begin with and you have the fed smashing the short term rates on fighting ghosts.
Base case - a recession to start around the end of Q1 and inflation to be non existent in Q3 to Q4 23.
May god save the Fed if we end up in another deflationary environment!
PS - about the biggest toolkit of the Fed - narration - just view the last presser when a reporter asked his opinion about the ripping stock market.
That’s a slam dunk for Jeff’s hypotheses right there!
Well, well... I still miss the part drawing conclusions for investments.
Energy and Food Consumption appear to have a great impact on Currency Value and Economic health of modern Technologic Society. Europe is facing a 50 Billion Cubic Meter reduction in Natural Gas indefinitely. Second largest Steel Foundry in Germany closed and 21 Chemical Plants shutdown in EU. They can't Print Energy and Food nor can they compete in a Global Economy against the likes of China or India because it takes Energy Food to perform work. They can't produce products at scale to Hawk in the Market. No Merch, no Sales. No Sales, no Revenue. TY Jeff. I'm starting to understand some of the Dynamics involved in the Economy beyond Fire and Meat. I'm losing a little Caveman luster thanks to Euro Dollar University.
I once learned 'Economics is like a bunch of men in nice suits, pretending they know what they're talking about'.
UA-cam won't let me set notifications to "ALL" it keeps resetting to "NONE".
All roads leave to and away from Sraffa's "model" of an economy. Unfortunately, Sraffa's framework was hijacked by the age of "high theory" to trash Hayek and the Austrians, and, later, as a fig leaf by Marxists ... bless their hearts one and all. We economists need to retool beginning with models of self-reproducing economic systems that function well but, sometimes, fail spectacularly. There is a lot of work between Sraffa's accounting system and a "monetary" economy. So we will have to burn down what passes for monetary theory and replace it by a credit theory of money. Basically, we need a micro/macro model of a credit economy where some of those "credits" dominate transactions and hence are called money. Put differently, we need to begin with Sraffa's analytic framework and build it along the lines of Karl Brunner (shoe leather theory of money), Gurley and Shaw (money in a theory of finance), Pesek and Saving (inside/outside money), and Leijonhufvud (coordination corridors). Combine that with econometric analyses that make efficient use of a priori information. Then we will MAYBE be able to address with precision the kind of macro data that you are flailing away at like an announcer calling a baseball game.
Good one Jeff, You went into BEAST MODE on this one. Thank you 🌹
Economics is an area of academic study. So, let's not overrate this subject and ourselves. It is as good as those formulating economic theories (probably out of date) and those using economics (their limited understanding of this subject) to interpret current events and developments. Not in any way complete or proven as a panacea for understanding markets or even for prescribing any policy for any government.
Jeff is right. We have given so much regard to economics (without understanding its limitations) that governments and central banks have claimed the front seat in determining interest rates and so determine the rate and pace of business performance and social progress - very politically significant but not a role universally accepted if we look at many economics textbooks. And governments have assumed this role without obvious public accountability and responsibility (can always blame the central bankers?) for poor or wrong monetary policies and decisions!
That was a nothingburger, Jeff.
So true! I was listening to an interview on macrovoices this morning and Eric Townsend spent at least 2 thirds of the interview asking what the Fed would likely do in certain circumstances. And they are bit players on the sidelines! It was very frustrating to listen to.
i have to listen to it... I watched the beginning of one of Eric's recent videos and he mentions Jeff and presents his ideas, asking the guests opinion about them... So Eric is also a viewer :D
I want to believe that Eric was playing along with the guest, but in reality realizes that the Fed is of lesser significance. Macrovoices seems to be not delusional like the WSJ and mainstream economics.
@@likesgymnastics5767 Yes absolutely. I think it was much more what the guest was saying rather than Eric and Jeff’s name was mentioned with regards to inflation versus “inflation”.
Why are people paying high prices and are not able to buy what they want because of bare shelfs? If the FED is not affecting the economy then something more nefarious is going on.
i can only imagine that this flaming train wreck of an economy and indeed, the entire world, is only bearable to us onlookers. Of whom, never felt like we had any skin in the game. That long and unending crash is 'over there'. And my limbs and flesh are not being ripped asunder. Quite unlike the people who bought tickets to go along for the ride. But then, we realize that same damned train is carrying firewood and other provisions to our own town. And that we're all gonna starve and freeze to death now. But only if we're truly lucky. Because the survivors are going to be in a lot pain for a lot longer.
So what about the plunge protection team preventing normal BEAR markets?
I hope you have time in your career to write a book about your thoughts on the yield curve (much like Edward Chancellor did "The Price of Time"), I believe it could become a standard text book for all those reading Economics at School/University. It could be as important as "Security Analysis" or "Manias, Panics and Crashes, or "Reminiscences of a Stock Operator". If you just covered off its action in 2000/2002, 2006/2008 and 2022/ , it would be on a par with Galbraith's work on The Great Crash. It would take pride of place in Russell Napier's Library of Mistakes in Edinburgh.
The 2y is rolling over and the FED is going to be chasing it down next year apparently. Not sure if they will though, just as they ignored the markets before raising, they will probably wait too long in lowering and we are all doomed.
What you are saying is that the free market is setting the 10 year rate. The fed can manipulate the 10 year by buying bonds, which shows a false market for a low yielding bond.
Thank you kindly!
Jeff is on FIRE!!! I LOVE IT!! GO JEFF GO!!
Wow. That was the best one yet. IMO, the Fed seems to want larger positive interest rates but the government won't stop spending and they are bankrupting themselves and the government in the process. Why do they want these rates? It isn't like the banks made savings accounts attractive again.
Galileo taking Economics 101 to task..
Jeff, so how do we fight FED??
I need to know what you think about next year and The Depression.
P.S. I thought you were going to suggest burning down literally everything. My preference going forward - 'The Great Restart' !
I called economics a pseudo-science in my Theory and Methodology of Science exam. I got zero points on the question but I think Jeff would be proud.
Interesting and subscribed but does he give no predictions? Where is the SPY going?
The last chart certainly looked like a nuclear escalation...
surely all the reduction in price in other sectors is simply from the reduction in demand and the extraction of liquid capital, its not exactly a good thing
Alright Jeff. I love your show, and I always appreciate what you have to say, but what you just said here at the beginning of this episode is counter to what many people believe with regard to the power of central banks. Can you please comment on Nathan Meyer Rothschild's famous statement of 1815:
"I care not what puppet is placed upon the throne of England to rule the Empire on which the sun never sets. The man who controls the British money supply controls the British Empire, and I control the British money supply."
Thanks so much in advance.
Jeff.
I gotta be honest...I don't have a clue of about 3/4 of everything you're talking about, but I have the sense that I need to understand it. Would you consider doing a series of presentations sometime where you explain some of the basics... like we're 5 years old?
For example, I'm still chewing over yesterday's episode.... with the trillions of dollars unaccounted for? Where did that come from? And supposedly quadrillions, globally, in other liabilities? Where did that come from. Is it a gigantic pile of debt secured by a tiny amount of collateral, levered up over and over again? Are these huge QE events by central banks merely an attempt to puff up the value of the collateral that underpins the whole thing? I'm going to keep listening... maybe some of it will sink in.
"should we burn it all down?"
pretty sure it's all already on fire
Please do a week of bill Dudley's errors. That's amazing and useful since the "wrong" thing can be even more instructive
If there is one thing I am missing from your thinking, and I know this is a big ask, it’s to paint the vision of what an alternative financial universe should look like.
Is it just as simple as having the Central Banks dissappear? And what would that mean? Or is it some form of ”Gold standard”? Or do we just need to tweak the Central banks role and mandate?
I’d love to see a video where you articulate some of that, knowing full well that its unlikely that you have all the answers.
Relax everything gonna be okay, Buddy
Jeff on blistering form
Amazing. Thanks Jeff.
I hear you
Please talk with Per Bylund from the Mises Institute.
4 pack 16 ouncers of crap Miller high life was $3 in 2010. Just bought it for $5.85 Yesterday. Right, so glad inflation is coming down.
Jeff: Brilliant as always, but you need to have a cup of cocoa - soothe the nerves as it were. PLU
Amazing video class Jeff! Thanks for your time
If QE didn't help, then QT shouldn't hurt. Is there an asset bubble, stocks/RE?
this video had me laughing. You are a great teacher Jeff and more importantly it seems to me that you have the right idea :D while those WSJ folks are a bunch of clowns. Reminds me of the 20/80 rule. Most people don't really have a deep understanding, despite being in a position where they are educators/communicators. You are top tier though.
I love the passion
As much as this sentiment isn't terrible necessarily humans will be humans this sounds like the great reset to me
excellent! thank you
I would love to see one week of Bill Dudley's errors and I'm totally serious. I think it would also be very instructive in showing how consistently (and spectacularly, at times) wrong some of these people can be, but yet they continue to be quoted and listened to.
I too would love to see more about Bill Dudley's many egregious errors. I used to think WSJ was decent. Not anymore!
15:38 bruh your editor did you like that 😭
Is there any possibility of ending the Fed?
Okey I get everything Jeff says. But what about fed influencing retail idiots and killing speculations with short term increases ?
It had an effect with the stock market immediately when fed started tightening a year ago.
Would someone be so kind to explain this to me in layman terms. When a recession is looming do investors flock towards the (when the yield is inverted ) 2yr yield rather than the 10yr as the yield is higher?
ahh the good ole how its supposed to be vs how it is.
It’s funny cause Steve Keen has said nearly exactly the same thing about economics being a waste of time and efficiency.
Kamil gave it a special touch 😢
I am not sure I understand your rant. As a non-American I am worried about the geopolitical/economic impact of American policy makers on the rest of the World. Americans want to be number 1. Therefore their currency must be number 1. Now I am sure nobody in the World other than China, wants to be, or even care about having their currency as no 1. But the Americans refuses to accept that if their currency is no 1, they have a responsibility to ensure currency and economic stability. The World will give you Americans the honour to be the World dominant currency, but then you must guarantee dollar price stability. If you cannot guarantee dollar price stability then you cannot be the world no 1 currency. This point links to Jeff’s point in this video. The World now has more than enough evidence that Americans refuse to accept its responsibility of a stable currency towards the World, thus the World must find an alternative. Americans have now made more than enough money off a poor and weak rest of the World economy by deliberately pushing for instability. Jeff just confirms this deliberate push for instability. Privilege comes with responsibility and accountability.
Brilliant.... as always! 👏
Don't make Jeff Snider angry, you wouldn't like him when he's angry.
Jeff, whats your 1 must read book?
He talks alot about the monetary history of the US by milton friedman and Anna swartz
@@dhvanitdesai1044he talks about certain sections of said book
Your a legend love your videos mate
Fantastic
Good one, Jeff!
I know it might be impossible but Jeff should be a guess for Joe Rogan's podcast.
Rogan isn't in to yield curves as far as i know. Different spectrums
That was almost as good as angry sex 😉
Great job educating us Jeff, Thanks!
😂✌️
I might be to stupid to understand, is inflation coming down? What does that mean for housing market and stock markets?
Silly question, why do you have so many frames without something in them?
They all have something in them. The apparently blank ones are filled with old faded documents, that are very light at this point.
You the man!
I wish the people who are scared of crypto would dive in...not because its amazing right now, but because its what the industry needs to make sure the technology is applied correctly.
Opposite, the parasites need to be starved off so that it is applied correctly.
@@westcoaststacker569 No, you are wrong. They will never leave, just like they never left the internet. There is a dark web still, you realize that?
@@westcoaststacker569 This technology enables child trafficking, why arent we shutting down the internet?
@@CM-zu9vg Referring more to the FTX of the world. Dark Web/Blackmarket etc... was not created by crypto.
@@CM-zu9vg Sadly I don't have the power, and the problem is much older than the internet.
Those foolish enough to use the internet and crypto should be prosecuted (executed) by authorities. But government decides to watch and pick up a terrorist here or there instead.
Awesome!
Looks like you got a new editor or your skills have improved :)
The problem with economics is the same fundamental problem of all information today, that you stand to make a lot of money and/or power if you can use it to manipulate people's behavior. Clarity, accuracy and transparency of information is undesirable when it conflicts with your own best interests and it's far better to have an inscrutable black box.
Unless he starts to tie up his economic analysis with stocks, some of us gonna start losing interest.
We need to completely leave Keynesian economics, nowadays MMT. Dr Friedman is rolling in his grave.
Jeff, I think if you put a "thesis" upfront it will help the viewer know "what are they going to get out". And also if you include your "evidence" it will help fitting the pieces together. You present amazing data but to me, it is under-appraciated due to the lack of "spot light".
Ya da ya da ya da....Buy gold because it is shiny and people believe it has value. Peope believe dollar has value. People believe bitcoin has value. If enough people believe something has value, then it is valuable. This principle applies to the Zimbabwe Dollar as well as the US dollar.
Government deficits should not be created as debt and commercial banks should have more skin in the game! Only way to fix economics!!
If you’d put time stamps on I’d be twice as likely to watch your videos.
17:00 key
When economists say that the laws of thermodynamics do not apply to economics: what hubris. With global debt to GDP of 400%. Global supplies of most geological commodities at or near permanent decline especially fossil fuels. How can the current application and interpretation of economic theories continue. Add the impacts of global warming, some 80 million displaced people, aging demographics and belligerent autocratic leaders.
Just as a forest renews. So will the financial system recover. There is too much financial deadwood and under brush ripe for fire storm 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
If the yield curve is right isn't that just indicating that the market is betting on massive downside risk? Sounds pretty bleak, because if the FED has little to no influence, it's not going to be able to backstop anything? 2008 wasn't very fun
Very interesting
How do we make money off fighting the Fed though?
C'mon Jeff, tell us what you really think.
In process*