Will Russia become a superpower? Part 2/2
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- Опубліковано 15 вер 2024
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In the first part of Russia's geopolitics we talked about the external objectives of the Kremlin, and how these objectives shape Russia's foreign policy. Equally important are Russia's internal dynamics, and the answer to this is connected with the historic decisions that transformed Russia into a centralized autocratic empire. As unpleasant that empire was, that is how Putin's administration is governing the country today. Even though a decentralized Russia which endorses freedom and liberty can theoretically exist, the last and only time Russia attempted to form a democratic and free society was during the Yeltsin era in the 1990s. That era is remembered for the great economic depression, massive urban migration and the nationalist religious secessionist movements in North Caucasus, which nearly broke Russia apart.
For the Russians, this was evidence that Western values and principles could not work in Russia. So when Putin first came to power in the year 2000, he consolidated his position among the oligarchy, and slowly changed the country back to a centralized bureaucracy. One of the first things he did was to return the Russian intelligence network to its prime position in the political system. He merged the Border Guard Service with Federal Security Service. He basically raised an army of a quarter of a million people for the intelligence apparatus. Then he further centralized the whole system by placing the FSB direct under the control of the president. Putin then moved to nationalize companies such as Gazprom, Rosneft and United Aircraft Corporation, and used these companies for geopolitical means. If this sounds familiar, that is because Russia is returning to its historic authoritarian method of governance. And in this context we will look at the critical objectives within Russia.
Sountrack:
Decisions Kevin MacLeod (incompetech.com)
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In part 2 of Russia's geopolitics, we focus on the internal dynamics of the country.
So you think a country can only be free & democratic if it sells off its natural resources to the West and submits to Anglo-American hegemony?
*****
Yes...at least in Russia's case. Your question is a good one. Others have noted that natural resources have retarded the development of countries/societies. Disposing of them might indeed be a solution. Good question.
psikogeek You're fine with Yeltsin and his cronies selling off the wealth country for their own private gain?
***** Most of those who made their money under Yeltsin are in power today in Russia.
alanheath3 True but now they are forced to reinvest most of the profits in Russia. I'm not arguing that what you have today in Russia is better than what you had under Yeltsin. What I object to is characterizing the Yeltsin era as "free & democratic". How can you describe an administration that dissolved parliament and shelled the Russian White House, killing 187 people as "free & democratic"? I object to equating "freedom & democracy" with pro-Western (as opposed to Nationalist) Oligarchy. It's irresponsible and I think Caspian Report, which usually provides great analysis, should know better.
Russia may have went into an economic depression with Yeltsin in charge but you have to admit he had the moves.
yeah but paid the price of losing nearly all strategic territories gained during the Russian Empire era and the Soviet era.
Timothy Soo That was Gorbachev dissolving the U.S.S.R. not Yeltsin.
Matthew McCallum Gorbachev's announcement was generally just a formal dissolution but technically the USSR already ceased to function much earlier when virtually all the republics declared independence when Yeltsin and the leaders of the republics sign the Belavezha Accords and later the Alma Ata protocol. Gorbachev was then only left with the nuclear codes but no government or nation to run.
Timothy Soo Yeltsin came to power after Gorbachev.
Matthew McCallum Incorrect. Yeltsin came to power as the president of the Russia SSR within the USSR and use his position to weaken the USSR. his position which is already controlling Russia later evolved to become the president of Russia even before Gorbachev formally dissolve the USSR. judging from how you commented, I really feel you need to do more readings to have a deeper understanding.
6:25 Holy shit, they've got levitating tanks! I don't think they need any more modernization. This is like C&C Red Alert.
+RumRumRum
What about the invisible doomsday plane?
What about it?
yes ли бы
ахахах
Russia is a joke and will always be a joke Russians have nothing at all to be proud of Stalins USSR and today's Putin's Russia are and was totalitarian states..
Putin is appealing to the most basic of instincts and fears of Russians. Many Russians harbor insecurities related to loss of the evil empire that was the USSR, and with that Russians idea of superpower status..
With Putin now Russians would like to reclaim this feeling and idea of the superpower status lol...
Russia today is known mostly for being nothing more than a petro state run by oligarch elite that answers to only one leader and the leadership is Mr Vladimir Vladimirovitch Putin himself...
Russia is one step away from in all but name a fascist state and too deflect this simple facts, Putins Russia uses total strong hold and control over the media and over Russia's gas energy sector, military, FSB and Police force.
When ever Putin feels that it is needed Putin's thugs the FSB boys take control of anything they want and they do this internally and externally, all this gets backed up with source of lies and propaganda to deflect the world from the real truth about what Russia really is, a mentally sick nation and society full of people controlled and living in a dream of a past that never really existed (or at least not in the way they wish it was )
Lest be honest the Soviet Union 1922-1991 only was in word history for 69 years not much of a super power if you only can clam 69 years in history before you was wiped out of existence ...69 years my grandmother Bessy is older than that LOL
Or what am i not right ????? USSR can only clam 69 years it started in 1922-1991 ....
Russians USSR a super power don't make me laugh....it was nothing more and still is nothing more then a evil state run by evil little people that just has some nukes under their control.. and as the cowards they are wave around them self's this weapons and shout about them to make them self look big..
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soviet_Union
Russians have nothing at all to be proud of Stalin the USSR and today's Putin's Russia are and was all totalitarian states..
RuSSia and the Soviet Union was NO better then Hitlers Germany, Pol Potts Cambodia, Idi Amins Uganda, Francos Spain, Mussolinis Italia, Gaddafi's Libya, Kim Jong-un North Korea and/ or Putins good friend Bashar al-Assads Syria
Ukrainians, on the other hand have made a new beginning. They are rejecting Russian-style autocracy, reforming the economy and moving against the pervasive corruption of the old regime.
Ukraine naturally and rightfully belongs in Europe. Putin has used every means possible, including military aggression and terrorism to damage and subordinate Ukraine.
He will not succeed. Ukraine's whole history revolves around the struggle for liberty and resistance to foreign oppression. Ukrainians are starkly different to Russians. They are not and have never been mentally slaves of Moscow lies, propaganda and control .
The face of true evil Putins RuSSia and propaganda
news.vice.com/video/silencing-dissent-in-russia-putins-propaganda-machine-full-length
Russians Trolls like to repeat How Powerful Is Russia!! Well, let's look at some facts !!!
Russia needs to do 2 things,,
1. To win an invasion of Ukraine and control it they need to do it very very fast in super speed
2. They need to have so many military forces in the region that it will make THE WEST think twice before helping Ukraine !!
Russia simply does not have that right now .. !!
The reason they will NOT attack right now or tomorrow or even the next year believe is this.... see under
(When it happens (and it will one day ) it will only be after the upcoming elections in Ukraine and only if Russia does not get what they will see as a pro-Russian government in power in Ukraine)
The Kremlin likes to repeat the Russian propaganda about how Russia could have tanks in Kiev in two weeks, take a second to reflect on the numbers.
(Russia does this type of scaremongering tactics and shouts things like "we will have our tanks in Kyiv in 2 weeks" thing to scare Ukrainians into submission a type of typical Soviet psychological warfare tactic )
As of 2017, Russia has 230K troops in ground forces (there's also a huge number of other people, but they are not authorized to use weapons), and Ukraine has 204K. Plus 40-50K Ukrainian National Guard.
This is public information - easy to verify on Wikipedia. Russia would need some troops at the border with five NATO countries, some troops at the long border with China, some at bases in Armenia, Transnistria, Abkhazia, Ossetia, etc. Let's say half can be sent to Ukraine - that's 115K - less than half of Ukrainian army + National Guard.
And that will still be nothing more than a Russian pipe dream as we in that scenario are not taking into account the fact that the Russian city and naval base Kaliningrad in the Baltic’s will need a massive bust in defense and troops sent by Russia... Russia will also need to reinforce its city's like Saint Petersburg (157 km from NATO border Estonia and Moscow as they are only 600 km from Latvia NATO border ) and let us not forget that Putin will need most of his troops to cover his long western borders, all the way from Murmansk to down to Poland a border that is a whopping 2300 km long !!!!
The Baltic states and Poland will be getting very Jumpy about any Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine and anyone who has studied even a little history will tell you, there is no way that Poland will just stand still and let Russian troops stand inside Ukraine knocking on the Polish back-door... Warsaw will never let themselves end up in any situation where they are showing weakness and feeling vulnerable when it comes to Moscow...
And don't forget nations like Romania, Moldova Hungary, Slovakia all NATO nations except for Moldova will most likely take part in a Polish move of defensive actions as well as they also will never accept Russian troops in their backyards as they also have a bad history with Moscow like everyone else...
And last but not least the Scandinavia nations like Finland, Norway and Sweden will also be very jumpy especially Finland as they have not forgotten last time Russia invaded them and took over the Finnish Karelia ...
Any Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine will be seen as a threat to Finland by Helsinki as they also border Russia this will drag Sweden, Norway, Island, and Denmark into a potential conflict as the NORDEFCO (Nordic Defence Cooperation) will be activated NORDEFCO is a collaboration among the Nordic countries in the area of defense. Its five members are Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, and Sweden.
While NATO says there are fifteen or more battalion battle-groups of Russian ground forces, 20,000 or so men in all, poised to invade, the true number may well be higher, given longstanding Kremlin acumen in denial and deception, what the Russians call maskirovka.
The actual figure may be closer to 40,000 troops within a short distance of the Ukrainian frontier. Latest information indicates that these battle-groups are drawn from Russia’s best ground forces: the 4th Tank and 2nd Motorized Rifle Divisions, the 76th and 106th Airborne (VDV) Divisions and the 31st VDV Brigade, the 23rd Motor Rifle Brigade, plus unidentified units of Naval Infantry (i.e. Marines), and experienced GRU special forces (SPETSNAZ).
Many of these units contributed to the Kremlin’s near-bloodless seizure of the Crimea should be considered the best that Russia has...
As the Russian defense analyst Aleksandr Golts recently explained,
“Even if the Kremlin has managed to mass approximately 40,000 servicemen on Ukraine’s borders, this is absolutely insufficient for occupation. Absolutely no fewer than 100,000 men and officers would be required for this.
But we simply don’t have them.”
Unless Vladimir Putin wants to embroil Russia in a protracted war for Ukraine that will bear no resemblance to the walkover Anschluss with Crimea, he would be well advised to reconsider invasion at this point (I think he will need another year or two to be ready for this type of invasion ) As this will no longer be Special War, but a real war - one which may not be possible to limit to Ukraine.
With the type of brute-force war that Russia trains for, a successful attack needs a 3-10 x advantage in troops.
So, Russia simply does not have enough troops. Holding the territory (even just to the left of Dnieper) would require an order of magnitude more troops. In the meantime, Ukraine is producing a number of new weapons and is getting a number of defensive systems from other countries. For example, Ukraine is now mass-producing portable anti-tank weapons with 5km range, which makes traditional armor attacks Russia practices much more problematic.
Not to mention a large number of Soviet-era tanks in Ukraine, and some new ones produced now. Another example, US-made anti-artillery systems have been used in combat and are going to be available in larger quantities.
If Russia tries a full-scale invasion, this may indeed end in two weeks, but not in Russia's favor.
ua-cam.com/video/9vX-_hjx_go/v-deo.html
PS. I am not saying that they are not going to attack as I truly believe they will and they will do it within 12 to 24 months after the Ukrainian presidential elections, but like a say STILL, TIME TO DIG IN AND REINFORCES DEFENSIVE POSITIONS. AND UPGRADE EQUIPMENT..
The only reason Russia has not attacked yet is they don't have the muscle to do it !!
I read the sarcastic comment of one guy. Here is a quote: "Russia is a joke. 40% less GDP than Italy and they think they can rule the world." And that's what I want to say about this. Seriously? Do you think we want to rule the world? Give me one reason why we need this. We do not need it. We want to develop our country. This is what we need. We do not care about Europe and the United States. We are angry that NATO is building military bases on our borders. We were attacked by France (Napoleon), then Germany (Hitler). Now what? United States? We are tired. Thank God we have powerful nuclear weapons. If you want to destroy us, we will take you to the grave with you.
That is a different mindset and perception on the things. For westeners it seems that the country is a superpower only when it is bullying and threatening the rest of the world, supress any activities in foreign government which it does not like and shit without much of consequences to itself. If there is a country that opposes this way of dealing with the world - "It is a serious threat to our democracy."
If you want to develop your country as you say, then Putin is the wrong man for that. Also you raise examples of attacks on Russia but ignore the numerous examples of unprovoked aggression and invasion: Poland in 1920, Poland again & Finland in 1939, Baltic nations in 1940, then under Putin, numerous low-level cyber attacks on Estonia and elsewhere, novichok in UK, invasion of Georgia in 2008 and Ukraine in 2014 and on and on. Your protests are very weak indeed. Wake up and face the truth, Russia's rulers are the greatest threat to the people of Russia, and while there are many young people who understand this, many others are victims who believe the lies the Russian government uses to manipulate them.
Your videos are just so awesome
+Povilas Račkauskas Now only if he does USA next
You seriously do a incredible job!
Translating all the complex subjects to understandable video(s), and also post them in 2 languages!
You keep up the good work my man!
Thumbs up from the netherlands!
What's the second language
For all that, it is a superpower. For all involved Russia is a more reliable friend than the West. As an American I’m saying this having watched during my 72 years of life. Russia is better than it was during the communist days. All are neighboring countries, and with the right attitudes there is much mutual benefit to be had and gained.
I'm from Kalmykia and I can tell you 100% that my republic wouldn't have any interest in seceding from Russia regardless of the Caucus republics actions
Gnzlz а че он написал? Я в калмыцком не шарю
@@roman_yourich ахаха, ну ты даешь, в 2к19 не знать калмыцкий = себя не уважать. исправляйся
та Монголоор яриж чаддаг уу?
Are you the leader of your republic? You speak for the whole country do you?
You say so because it is good now. But you'll change your opinion as soon as Russian Federation steps into financial and internal crisis
Wow Shirvan, this is very impressive work on Part 1 and this video. I am a poly sci major and have been to Russia for 8 weeks on a study trip. I usually know most of what people say about Russia. You really taught me a lot here and I appreciate it. You are killing it!
Shirvan, I've listened to both your reports. You don't mention one of the most important factors, the falling birth rate and aging population in Russia. The geopolitical analyst Peter Zeihan believes that it is this that will ultimately doom Russia's efforts to maintain its current hold over its borders. Can you address this?
The Caspian Report is really kind of the most informative, sensible, interesting and insightful take on the MMORPG that is international relations...I'm so glad I found it! Keep it up! Thanks!
If Russia wasn't so abrasive in it's dealings with other nations, I think neighboring countries wouldn't be so afraid of them and have that need to protect themselves. A kinder, gentler Russia would open many doors and friendships. Instead they rather be harsh and dominating and build massive nuclear weapons with 100 megatons of potential yield. I feel the West eastward movement is necessary to keep Russia in check. However, if I looked at it in the eyes of the Russians, the eastward movement would seem like a direct threat to their nation. Then again, it shouldn't matter because Russia would lose in a conventional war with NATO anyway.
Just my thoughts....
"However, if I looked at it in the eyes of the Russians, the eastward movement would seem like a direct threat to their nation"
thats true
Few years later and Russia has emerged as a global key player despite these difficulties.
not really everything you see is the best they have at this point. su57 armata and the old fleet show they arent able to keep up. also if you look at the tanks
you see that it has good stuff but not the money to develop it.
These were absolutely first rate - thank you. Fascinating viewing.
Really great reports!
I would add for discussion, almost all of Russian industries will be plagued by inefficiencies and technological gaps from world industry leaders even if it partners with companies such as British Petroleum. The major existing and future problem is corruption, lack of capital investment, and as you mention, investing in technical expertise and competitive equipment.
Of course corruption can be institutionalized and 'legal' particularly in the political, judicial, and criminal areas, but as a generalization, the more transparent, the less a company transacts in or fosters conflicts of interests, the more competition, the less impunity a business has, the more successful a business will be.
Not saying the Corruption Perceptions Index is perfect, but Russia placing 127th out of 177 and dead last of the the g20 nations is pretty telling of the present and how far Russia would need to go to even come close to the next most corrupt nations of Argentina or Indonesia let alone trying to get to a Brazil or Saudi Arabia level.
Yeah corruption in Russia is pretty awful. The government no longer has any control over it, and in a large country as Russia, it will be hard to change that.
Yes and suporting partnerships with western companies and at the same time preventing former sattelite nations like georgia, ukraine, .etc from leaning to much west will be the biggest challenge.Probably a little schizophrenic.
CaspianReport US made coruption legal. One can loby for anything. if has money ofcorse.
8 am from Ukraine,but I believe in Russia and I hope that they will be a superpower
Watching this in 2023. I can tell, this was a correct analysis.
What if Russia will acquire a warm water port via global warming as all the North Pole will slowly melt?
That could drastically change Russia's access to global trade - which could shift towards a northern route between China/Japan and Europe once it becomes ice-free.
T R O P I C H Y P E R B O R E A
@The Iguana Not that important unless you also have a population boom.
@@Bayard1503 or mass migration, which russia probably will have if the other countries become uninhabitable. But this could also be a burden for russia
@The Iguana Like I always said, Alaska is like USA's bank vault
Dude the details of information of your videos are superb -- Very good indeed !! Thanks...
I have seen 5 or 6 of your reports now... you do great work... you make geo politics really easy to understand, and your work is well sourced... thanks
5:47 the eyes of a man that is willing to go to any length to achieve his goal.
Setting the world ablaze is but a small price to pay for being one of the main players it seems in one of earth's final chapters.
The Soviet Union was a superpower, not Russia. There is a huge difference between the two.
The Soviet Union didn't achieve superpower status until after World War 2 when it started to subjugate all of eastern Europe. Thankfully, that state of affairs lasted less than 50 years.
Russia used to be just one of ten republics that were all part of the Soviet Union. All those republics have since become independent countries.Some of those former republics harbor deep resentment towards Russia today. All of the former Warsaw Pact countries have long since freed themselves of Moscow's influence. That is a lot of power once wielded by Moscow that is long gone. The Soviet Union is dead and so is any superpower status that Russians once enjoyed. Russia is not a superpower.
Imperial Russia was not a superpower. Russia completely collapsed in World War 1. And lets not forget Russia's utter humiliation at the hands of the Japanese in the Russo-Japanese War of 1904.
J Calhoun
russia collapsed in ww1 because it was fighting 2 wars simultaneously a civil war and world war
Just learn history, kid
The modern Russian Federation is the ideologically still the Soviet Union, just with reduced territory and a new dictator. And they're still fighting a Cold War against democracies.
Outstanding videos man. Essential viewing for anyone interested in geopolitics!
As the Arctic sea ice reduces Russia will come closer to having warm water ports. even if they are ice bound for a couple of months a year.
You deserve much more views.
Russia's eastern cities should build greenhouses. Maybe then they could grow enough of their own food.
+Infidel Heretic Interesting idea, but you have to understand that Russia is the biggest country in the world and when problems occur, that require the government and state itself to solve, that means literally tens of millions of people are affected by the government's policies. This is why Kremlin is a master chess player, so to say. There is a saying in my people about the Russians: "The cossacks(Russians) take a long time to gain speed for the charge, but when they do they crush everything in their path." This is why Russia, as Putin himself states numerous times, implements long-term solutions for every problem, which can be seen in every move Russia makes as a country and a nation. If they build greenhouses, and produce more food for the far east, then a lot more people from the west of Urals will migrate to the east, and you can't build greenhouses indefinetely. It would solve a food shortage problem for a few years, but in the long run they will again have the exact same problem, with even more mouths to feed and less money than before.
The solution for far east problem is completely different, if you ask me. There is at least 10 times more food in this world than it is necessary to feed all of the 7 billion people, but the main problem is distribution(which is why people in Africa starve, for example). So, what needs to happen, is that Russia invests a lot in further colonization of Siberia but not in the common manner. They need to do what British did, and create mass colonization and build big cities in their colonies. Unfortunately for Russia, they can't sail through Siberia :D They have to connect Moscow with the far east via road and rail infrastructure, which is much more difficult and expensive than it seems. Essentially, what they need is to create a solid spine for a country, a populated Siberian Russia with developed infrastructure, big cities and ONLY THEN introduce the program of self sufficiency of these regions with solutions like greenhouses etc.
Unfortunately, this is all very expensive and requires a stable, wealthy country with unified nation, strong leadership and no foreign commitments. Russia in theory fullfils at least some of these requirments, but they are heavily invested in foreign affairs because of the west. Russian geopolitics are draining the country's resources and deny them opportunity to invest their full attention and assets into the domestic policies and solution of internal problems. In my opinion, this is exactly why the west is doing the thing they are doing. The russophobic rethoric of the west like "Siberia belongs to the world community(lol) and not to only Russia", shows how west is actively trying to prevent this creation of strong Russian colony in Siberia, because it would serve as a spine for the Russian state in the future and an effective backyard and "backup" strategical position for Russia.
For example, this is why Rome collapsed. It did not have a proper spine to hold the empire together. For all of their conquests in the east, the barbarian tribes still remained on the Danube and the Rhine - just a few hundred kilometers from the Roman heartland and the Rome itself! And not to mention that Rome had the terrain and geography to it's advantage! Russia has no such benefits and this is why they are so resolute and ruthless in defence of their borders and their interests in neighbouring countries.
I already stretched this comment out too much, but i just like to talk history and politics. I hope i gave you a better insight into some things, cheers! ;)
+Infidel Heretic the efectiveness of greenhouses depens on how much sunlight time they have. Maybe it would be a waste of resources to put them there, idk.
@@Bayomeer Russia needs the USSR. I see no other way to save russia from decline. With the USSR back Russia's population will be doubled and all of russia's borders will be once again secured by natural defenses. A reunited USSR will be a huge economy with GDP of $ 2.5 trillion placing it as the world's 8th largest economy by nominal GDP and 4th largest economy by PPP at $ 6.2 trillion. With a large economy and population of 300 million people, russia can once again afford build a massive military numbering in the millions like the soviet military which even in 1991 still had over 5.4 million soldiers, 55000 tanks, 13400 aircraft, 800 ships and 275 submarines. Reuniting all the SSRs is the only hope left. The improving economic situation will slowly lead to increasing fertility and Russia's superpower status will be restored.
Some words about why my country Russia has emerged as a power last years.
After the Arab Spring reformation and modernization of the army became indispensable for Russia.
It is based on our clear understanding that Middle Eastern countries can exist in two modes only: military secular dictatorship or islamist theocracy. By the way the West think "true" democracy is also an option in the Middle East but they are wrong.
Of course the first option is preferable for Russia.
Thus Putin put external deals in priority and was was lucky to find Larvov and Shoigu as external/military ministers (the same can't be said for internal ones so far).
In 2011 we were too weak to save Mubarak and Gaddafi but in 2015 we were strong yet to save Assad from islamists.
I can say more on this topic but too much for a single comment.
Anyway you can ask me if you are interested.
@Alexander several of your points show errors but no matter. You are mistakenly assuming that Putin's policies are designed to benefit Russia's vital interests and future. Since they are aimed primarily at maintaining his regime and the wealth of his supporters, ordinary Russian people have nothing to gain from this. Most young people in Russia can see this but many others have been manipulated by his misinformation apparatus. You, apparently, are one of them.
@@sarfcowst At the moment Putin's interests surprisingly align with interests of the state. And we have at least two ministers (foreign and defense) who really do their job instead of stealing and grafting.
Could be Russia's final destiny be the same as the Ottoman Empire? Centralizing power exacerbates corruption, big neighbours want access to resources, hard to defend multiple fronts (NATO, Turkey, Iran, China, Japan, and of course US), civilian society decline.
Will be central asia and Caucasus the new middle-east of the century?: the same way the middle-east is the spoil of war of the Ottomans, those lands abundant in energy resources could face the same fate: low population, multiple ethnics fighting each other, general destabilization of the area and so on.
+Pampero San well said . ı think putin made military moves too early espacially when he doesnt have the economy to back it up. it seems russia have to step back to recover its economy and when u step back in global area u lose ur influence which is deadly for countries like russia (has lots of ethnic groups and semi-autonomous areas) .
Very good job indeed Shirvan, these few reports on Russia are best in class. Thank you for what you do.
Outdated info! 2:15 Russia has 146 million population with Crimea.
I'm curious if there's a fundamental issue with Russia eventually joining the European Union in a limited capacity. It would assure trading partners and would not threaten Russian control of Siberian resources. They would not get a say in the finer points of European Union laws, but it would help secure the European plains and allow Russia to focus on internal development.
США не позволят россии вступить в евросоюз
Would really like to see you do a report about the Balkans, and the future prospects for the region. Will it become a conflict zone between Turkey and Russia, especially in the light of recent events (the downing of the Russian plane), or will the EU "swallow up" those tiny countries?
By "swallowing up" I mean that countries and any potential crisis in them will be sealed up by the membership in the EU/NATO, so there won't be any conflict caused by Turkey and Russia going at each other.
I don't think that Serbia officially supports Russia, it's way too dangerous for that. EU is a bad thing for Europe, in my opinion, but the security and stability they provide are few good things about them. I wish the Balkans would finally have peace through the EU, and not to be forever peons for slaughter and sacrifice by the "big players".
As for Kosovo/Albania, they seem to have aligned themselves with the US for most part, like 100%, which is a smart choice in concerns for power, bu they seem to be losing their very unique traditions and cultural identity with such an alliance.
masha'allah, shirwan
this is good staf for the brain keep feeding us bro we appreciate it
well, I disagree Russia is regional superpower, not only because they have nukes, but because Russia is so large it's military can directly engage in conflicts in approximately quarter of the world just by crossing their own borders. Russia is larger then Europe and Australia, and large almost as South America, so if you consider continents as regions then Russia is regional power. And about Navy, it is heritage of past times. In the era when you can send guided missal to hit the target on the other side of the globe from your mainland, or, in other word, electronics and mechanics are so highly developed, you can sink a heavy destroyer with hand missal from rubber boat. All major powers keep maintaining navies just because many industries are involved in it and it would have heavy impact on economies to send navies in the history. In the end, calling Russia regional power is the same thing as creating stealth aircrafts - they are not invisible, not for the eye, nor for radars, but knowing you have nasty new technologies people believe you have superior army and it is the use of "stealth" - psychological influence. France is regional power - many Russian provinces are larger than France, so if you are using a geographical term "regional" then you should know Russia is about twenty times larger then France, so you must either redefine meaning of term "region", or stop calling Russia regional power. :D
If you consider USA and China as the only super powers then Russia has a long way to go or may never. But if UK, Germany, France, are also super powers in your view then Russia already is. In terms of GDP Russia isn't behind them by much.
Great video! Very well put together.
Shirvan I honestly want to see a video about Americas economic stability in context to the outlook of growing economies such as india china and the functional of the dollar vs. other currencies. For a more in depth take on the subject.
keep waiting lol. He will never make a video about it.
@@sighberian5463 Really :)
About Russia's lack of a warm water port, though it's true they don't have one within its territory and due to the Syrian war operations have been postponed; Russia does maintain a Naval port in Tartus located in Syria which neighbors the Mediterranean.
this report has failed to analyze who is aiding and sponsoring the Caucasus regions to break away from Russia
Very informative and very well explained. Thanx a lot.
I know its a year late but I would like to congratulate you on such fine reports. Keep pushing in that direction you are very good.
6:28 flying tank?!?
It believes it can fly, so it can fly, it can fly, it can fly...
one thing to mention is Russia already have a warm water navy station in the Syrian city of tarsus on the Mediterranean, and it has grown notably during the last years of the Syrian conflict
You forgot the Arctic Ocean being the Fourth region that Russia needs to dominate, in order to be fully secure.
Seems like a lot of discussion is on whether russia is a superpower, let me provide some perspective. If the world is a giant eco-system, then the three apex predators would be Russia, China, United states, AKA the premier league players. (some would argue Europe is one of them, but at this point, i do not see high degree of political and military unity for them to a competitive political force) At this moment, United states is the strongest among the three(a first-among-equal) but not strong enough to outright overwhelm the other two without unacceptable losses to itself. This configuration alters depending on the relative powers of each side: in the past when USSR was at the height of its power, china and US allied with each other, fast forward to recent years, russia and china has built an alliance to counter US power. In the future, if China were to continue on its current trajectory, you might expect an alliance between Russia and US to counter chinese power. Given how central this trilateral relationship is to global politics, I would argue, yes, Russia and China and United states are superpowers.
TL:DR: the world is akin to a mafia, the three most powerful mafia dons are russia, china, and united states with outsized influence over all other members, for this reason, they are superpowers.
Hmm Russia does have a warm water port, Vladivostok.
nope, it freezes up in the winter. Russia wanted to get port arthur but japan stopped them from getting any further than vladivostok, and obviously now they have no chance since china has modernised.
Christopher Storvik
According to Wiki it is year round. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vladivostok#Port
***** Vladivostok port is ice-locked for at least four months (usually from November to March). It is kept open year-round by icebreakers. Look at this video of an icebreaker in Vladivostok (Ice breaker boat Vladivostok - Russia). It resembles a scene from a Hollywood blockbuster. However, the water starts to refreeze as soon as the icebreaker has passed. After all, icebreakers don’t change the temperature; just they temporarily make a path.
CaspianReport
Interesting but I can't see it being too much of a nuisance just north of 40º latitude. They must have some unusual weather.
***** I you think that unusual search for the Valdez port in Alaska, US.
Hey Shirvan,
Been wanting to ask you if you could make a video of USA Power... Strengths, Weaknesses, Future Prospects, Competitors, Current Event Responses... Just how the USA is stacked up today... I know you did one a long time ago, but it was 3 min, and pales in comparison to this one you did on Russia...
In other words, one like this for the US... but maybe instead of "can it be a superpwer" to "why it is a superpower and how it can stay #1"
The us is a very complex topic to talk about. It will stay #1, but it won't be interested in the world like it has in the cold war era
You forgot that Russia has a warm water military port in Syria.
I want to understand : are the straits near Danemark and Turkey blocking Russian trade? I can understand it could blocks military ships but I don't understand how it prevents Russia to participate in the world sea trade. Could someone explain this to me please?
7:05.....that may have been the case 6-10yrs ago but NOT anymore...Russia now has the best and most cost efficient military industrial complex in the world along with some of the most powerful and cutting edge technologies. Have you done an updated Report?
what's the music in this video called?
Decisions by Kevin MacLeod
So Russia is basically a Herakles holding many problems as Hercules holding Atlas
russia does have limited access to warm waters through the tartous naval base in syria...which is one of the many reasons russia supports the assad regime
Thanks for another enlightening vid.
Thank you again for another Greate report ! .
Absolutely outstanding research and presentation. You put big budget news networks to shame. Excellent work.
Keep everything under control and face scrutiny by everyone else or embrace democracy and face fragmentation
GREAT REPORT!
This is one of the best videos I have seen that attempts to explain Russia's geopolitics.
During WW2 the OSS had provoked the Baltic conflict. Hitler wanted to help Mussolini, he was angry about Mussolini´s Actions but yet he would have never let an ally without help. As a consequence his attack to Russia started later than planned, now the war started the same day like Napoleon attacked Russia decades ago. Hitler admired Napoleon but I think he wanted to Show that he was better. I am sure that he thought it would be a fast victory, a Blitzkrieg, because the Wehrmacht had not been prepared for a winter war. He was Aware of this fact. You can never really know how a war develops, but if such conflicts of today like the Crimea conflict develops to a war between the East and West, both will be the losers. Our politicians must be able to find Solutions without weapons. And I doubt that large Empires that can rule only with a centralized authoritarian Regime can have a Long time of existence if it includes the oppression of other ethnics, cultures and religions.
I wonder what are your thoughts on the political aspect of Putin's recent diffusion of the two tier flat tax rate with, luxury/vehicle and dividend taxes? Do you believe these phenomena are purely due to internal political economic pressures or due to an attempt to influence breakaway political factions and appease their self-image as the rightful holders of unfettered capital drained from their 'ethnic' labour?
Mirsivan , the Rússia coast of black sea isnt good for ports ? They have now the Crimeia, but they have a large coast in the black sea before anexing Crimeia ?
Maybe was this video made
before the annexation I don't know
Your videos are very informative...thanks for sharing. I am Albanian and I wanted to know how this country can survive and if it's possible to take back its lands from the neighbors...
Dude your amazing, non biased just straight facts, very objective
Russia's energy problem is much worse than merely having to extract from remote areas. Pipelines can always be built.
No, the real problem is that the world is moving towards renewable energy power and electric cars. Oil is in an inexorable decline as a geostrategic resource. By 2050, oil will be largely irrelevant.
In fact, the coming of the decline in peak oil demand will happen before 2030. After that, oil prices will plummet and stay low permanently.
This will be a body blow to Russia's economy.
Russia will have to finally leave its 18th Century thinking behind. It must embrace trade, international cooperation, rule of law, and private enterprise. If not, its demise will be profound, and likely very bloody.
A high quality briefing. Thanks for posting.
Excellent and informative two-part report! One thing that I would really find interesting would be your opinion of how Russia's population demographics affect it's near future geopolitical strategy and timeline. In particular, what do you think of the theory that an aging population with fewer younger people, will not be able to sustain a military capable of accomplishing its geopolitical goals. This situation may happen in the near future, and therefore for any assertiveness on Russia's part, the demographic pressure is to act sooner rather than later. Do you find any merit to that theory?
Boz. Yes I also did a comment on this. The geopolitical analyst, Peter Zeihan thinks that falling birthrate and aging population will doom russia to lose its current borders. That's the one thing missing from this analysis. Otherwise excellent analysis, I learned a lot.
Russia is a very homogeneous nation, with 81% of the population ethnic Russian and 95% with Russian as mother language, and 99% of Russians able to understand and speak Russian. For example, in the US Anglos are just 60% of the population and 85% of Americans have English as the mother language even if 98% are able to understand and speak English.
It is as if the entire history of mankind, heretofore, was unknown; as if we have learned nothing about ourselves as a species; namely, that mankind easily becomes intoxicated by hatred, which leads to open warfare.
source: The Peace Fairy By Jeff Nyquist
Great videos, very informative
Russia can have the Caspian sea all they want. EU or Nato all they want is Ukraine then its settled then the US can now fully focus on the Middle East. If the EU wins over Ukraine then I believe this will stop the Russia Sphere of Influence in Europe.
There is no doubt that you are a great presenter. I came across your channel now only and enjoyed your videos. Keep it up! "Hit the subscribe button"
One year after this video they have Sevastopol. I'm impressed.
Russia's a world power. It's not a regional power or super power. But with 8500 nukes, Russia's more than a regional power.
Yeltsin is not a democrat. A former Communist official, in 1993 he ordered the Russian parliament to be shot by tanks
They have done it before, and im confidant they will again. "Russia will rise again, not the south"
Both these videos present Russia as a vulnerable and brittle society. Created in 2014 it does not include the loss of Ukraine which makes Russia extremely vulnerable. Its action to create buffers and puppet states along its borders has the effect of creating enemies who are all the more interested in creating ties with the west to secure their borders. It is why the Baltic states and Poland were so eager to join NATO. It is why the 3 seas initiative exists. All the while the much more powerful China is looking at Russian territory itself which NATO has never had an interest in. Its current aggressive behavior towards the west will only give the west reason to destabilize the Russian Federation and that would not be difficult. Its off shore activity costs money it doesn't have and helps failed regimes that will never be of much use. I suspect Russia is even weaker at its core than suggested. As described it desires to be the central power in a union but with a GDP smaller than Canada's and a weak distribution system while being dependent on hydrocarbons that have a limited long term value. Their use is time limited due to global warming and then what will sustain the economy after hydrocarbons have seen limited use and will have reduced value. Russia will never be able to compete with the EU defense budget much less the US budget. Its legacy equipment value will decline. All the while its population is in decline. Why would the surrounding countries accept Russian empire lite in the guise of a union with a failing power. In some ways it is the late Ottoman power. On the long term Russia will have a choice, give up imperial ambitions as have France and Germany and integrate with the west as a powerful component or become a Chinese puppet. It is sad to see a country with a talented population and massive resources going nowhere.
Thanks a lot, brother. Very useful report as usual
Why would Kaliningrad secede from the RF?
+Williamz it was originally Prussian (German), its German name is Konigsberg. (kings town)
I would disagree with CaspianReport/SeaSnakeX that only the CIA and Chinese Intelliegence can match the FSB. I would argue that the Israeli Mossad and British/French intelligence are also amongst the competable. The Pakistani ISI is also a powerful intelligence agency, but it's a limited agency in size and it's focus is more South Asia/Middle East and less on the West/America.
Well if Russia isnt global power, but regional, then what region exactly are we talking about lol?
What about Valdivostok? Doesn't that count as a warm water port? Or is that too far from Moscow and the rest of Europe?
But problem still remains and history tells us iron first and aggressive policies doesn't last long, and it's very risky & unstable as well. I have never saw nations risen from Russia and China lasted more than 250 years. For most part, it can last it's dominance for about half a century when intellectuals are old and aged, this kind of power grid slowly fade away.
Russia has warm water ports for example Sevastopol in Crimea but the problem is that it is in the Black sea which the only way out would be through the Bosphorus strait in Turkey and if the Turks wanted to they could close them off therefore locking the Russian Baltic fleet in the Black sea and that wouldn't be good for Russia say if they wanted to send more ships or troops and equipment to Syria because they would have to go the long way round.
You’re amazing kaspian...GOD bless ya bro
Can Russia become Super Power if USA falls ?
Because when Soviet Union collapsed USA became super power.
Mirshirwan can you explain to us how close is economic collapse in America.
the US has been a superpower since the end of the second world war....
Christopher Storvik yes I meant the leading world power.
The answer is not very close at all, China and Russia are both far more fragile than the US in the current system.
That's an interesting question. The answer, I think, is yes. The US is the only major obstacle in Russia regaining control over the former Soviet states. Without the US, there is no NATO.
PS: the name is Shirvan
William Bell well, if you look at the debt.. :P
Russia may not be the #1 Global Superpower,
but it sure is a Global Superpower,
and that’s probably the reason why is being under such massive diplomatic, commercial and military hostility from US/NATO.
And about Russia’s military, the word ‘acquire’ doesn’t fit: Russia has its Industrial-Military complex.
Your reports are really high quality,well researched.Your strategic perspectives and analysis iin specific geovraphical,historical context of countries is very rich and excellent.
Please also include in your ,may be next videos, Russia's thurst to upgrade their education and health system.Also do they have any official basic vision document ( like Chinese Vision 2050 document) outlining a road map for next few decades.
Good video, I think it is worth mentioning that Russia has a terrible demographic problem, more Russians are dieing than being born today. It is very difficult to have a superpower with an old population.
Well given what is happening in Ukraine, Russian thinking if as described has been a massive failure. The performance of the army has been poor. There is another side to the military and that is how well the troops are trained and what their moral is. You can have all the tech you wish but the troops that operate them are crucial. In authoritarian structures, the job of the hierarchy is to tell the leader what he wants to hear and to display success whether it reflects reality or not. Mass still has its own quality but if anything it is vulnerable. Admittedly Putin's propaganda seems to have been particularly successful with the home crowd although it has to be seen how long it lasts. The Russia described in the video seems very fragile and ridgid prone to cracking.. It is a society that is limiting by nature.
///last and only time Russia attempted to form a democratic and free society was during the Yeltsin era in the 1990s. That era is remembered for the great economic depression, massive urban migration and the nationalist religious secessionist movements in North Caucasus, which nearly broke Russia apart. ///
I would love you to analyse this period more and further explain why democracy failed and the challenges against it working in Russia. Also, can you please tell us a bit more about where you are from, what you have studied, and how you prepare for one of these video's? I've never met anyone that thinks quite like you do. It's almost you're like Ender Wiggin from the classic Sci-Fi series "Enders Game" by Orson Scott Card. (Great book - a few people I know have read it in one sitting!, but a *terrible* movie!)
I just think you forgot the port of Vladivostok.
It's not a warm water port. Not to mention the Pacific is US navy oyster.
It still stands: Any title that ends in a question mark can be answered with no.
Symbolical is not a word its just symbolic
hello caspianreport i find your videos very interesting keep up the good work. I have a question for you i think you are from baku . i am Armenian . let s talk about armenian lands in modern turkey . with your experiance do you think Armenia will get their lands back ? and what would it take and how ??
thank you .
living in tatarstan and i can say, that tatarstan and bashkortostan are already assimilated
Серьезно? Татары и башкиры растворились в России? А куда исчезли 5 млн. татар и 1.5 башкир? русскими стали? Ассимилировались? мне правда интересно твое мнение.
or Russia could stop trying to game the world to win and help its people have good lives...(the same must be said of the other big players in this intl. sheiss game)
We want more. Great video & insight.
Another solution is to divide central authority with a new central city in the far East region. This is to save on costs over oil transports...
Caspi you are totally disregarding that the ports in the north will be ice free very soon.. The north east passage is already being prepared for this for example by building a new harbor in the north of Norway. If this will be any help for the russians to become a superpower i dont know :)