Nickel: Supply Constraints & Growing Demand Create Opportunities

Recording date: 25th November 2024
Mark Selby, CEO of Canada Nickel Corp
The nickel market has faced some headwinds in recent months due to concerns over Chinese economic growth and the potential impacts of U.S. tariffs on trade. However, nickel prices have shown resilience, bouncing back over the $16,000 per ton level after dipping to lows around $15,500 earlier in the year.
One of the key factors supporting the bullish outlook for nickel is the constrained supply picture. According to the International Nickel Study Group, global nickel supply rose just 4% year-over-year through September. Notably, Indonesian mine supply growth has been flat recently as ore availability has become challenging. Mark Selby, CEO of Canada Nickel Company, believes this dynamic, coupled with the upcoming rainy season in the Philippines, which will hamper production there, is likely to lead to a supply squeeze and set the stage for nickel prices to trend back towards $20,000 per ton in early 2025.
On the demand side, nickel consumption increased by 5% year-over-year through September, largely driven by the rapidly growing electric vehicle battery sector. While there is some uncertainty around EV subsidy policies in the U.S. going forward, the broader incentives put in place by the Inflation Reduction Act to support domestic critical minerals supply chains are expected to remain intact and underpin nickel demand.
The tightening market fundamentals are starting to be reflected in the performance of nickel-focused miners and explorers. Canada Nickel and Asian Battery Metals reported recent high-grade nickel sulfide discoveries at their projects. Meanwhile, Alliance Nickel released a positive feasibility study on its nickel-cobalt heap leach project in Australia.
For investors looking to gain exposure to the strengthening nickel market, key considerations include targeting companies with high-quality nickel sulfide assets in stable jurisdictions, royalty and streaming firms to mitigate operational risks, and integrated producers with exposure to the entire nickel value chain. The recent pullback in nickel prices could also provide attractive entry points, as development-stage assets have historically seen significant re-rating potential once the market narrative shifts to undersupply conditions.
While risks remain, the overall outlook for the nickel market appears increasingly bullish based on the tightening supply and demand fundamentals. The ongoing energy transition and global focus on developing secure critical minerals supply chains should provide a favorable long-term backdrop for nickel prices and equities. Investors should always conduct thorough due diligence on individual companies and projects before allocating capital.
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