Understanding Societal Collapse with Complexity Scientist Peter Turchin

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  • Опубліковано 6 чер 2023
  • What leads to political turbulence and social breakdown? Is there any way to stop history repeating itself today? Peter Turchin has mined 10,000 years of data to find the answer.
    Peter Turchin has pioneered a new science of making history predictable - by applying methods that had already succeeded in other complex fields. You'll want to know what he sees lying ahead, and what we can do about it.
    In this live event, he will present a ground-breaking account of how human societies work, explaining how, when the shifting balance of power between the ruling class and the majority tips too far in favour of elites, elite overproduction leads to state breakdown. It happened in imperial China, in medieval France, in the American Civil War - and it is happening now.
    #PeterTurchin #ComplexityScience #SocietalCollapse #PoliticalTurbulence #SocialBreakdown #EliteOverproduction #StateBreakdown

КОМЕНТАРІ • 722

  • @john1425
    @john1425 10 місяців тому +100

    So ironic to listen to the host talk about the problem while simultaneously being unaware he is an example if it.

    • @daffyf6829
      @daffyf6829 10 місяців тому +19

      Although I get what you're saying, I doubt he is unaware. I get the feeling he was given the directive from his boss to protect the elite that academia relies on for donations.

    • @john1425
      @john1425 10 місяців тому

      @@daffyf6829 Just seems like run if the mill Trump Derrangement Syndrome and Climate Cult stuff.

    • @blaeks
      @blaeks 9 місяців тому +7

      They are castrated and fearfull.

    • @aslkdjfzxcv9779
      @aslkdjfzxcv9779 9 місяців тому +8

      ah, irony.
      have you considered your part in the collapse?

    • @vannoo67
      @vannoo67 9 місяців тому +11

      I get the feeling that the whole audience were Aspiring Elites

  • @jasonmoser8957
    @jasonmoser8957 10 місяців тому +19

    Host wrecked this talk

    • @1ireneaustin
      @1ireneaustin 2 місяці тому +1

      Wrecked like screeeeeeeech BANG

  • @woof7679
    @woof7679 10 місяців тому +89

    If the revolution happens this interviewer is one of the first to go.

    • @Andimlikerawr
      @Andimlikerawr 9 місяців тому +2

      lol

    • @Solsys2007
      @Solsys2007 9 місяців тому +1

      Well said

    • @blaeks
      @blaeks 9 місяців тому

      The most vanilla talk about societal collapse published these days.
      Impotence at its finest. They are castrated and fearfull.
      No one will bother to touch these...

    • @Solsys2007
      @Solsys2007 9 місяців тому +1

      @@blaeks Fear the person that has nothing left to lose, and an axe to grind, they will do any job they deem "necessary".

    • @blaeks
      @blaeks 9 місяців тому

      @@Solsys2007 true

  • @Truthkindnesslovefunhealth67
    @Truthkindnesslovefunhealth67 10 місяців тому +11

    Very biased interviewer.

  • @georgea44
    @georgea44 10 місяців тому +176

    Interviewers political biases didn’t help this flesh out interesting topic. Real shame.

    • @brianwheeldon4643
      @brianwheeldon4643 10 місяців тому +10

      Biases or poor questioning.

    • @jamesbryson575
      @jamesbryson575 10 місяців тому +5

      Agreed

    • @Natty183
      @Natty183 10 місяців тому +13

      Awkward interviewer. I could feel Turchin's reactions in my body. He did a great job off trying to transmit the information he wanted to though.

    • @jtzoltan
      @jtzoltan 10 місяців тому

      The interviewer ironically buys into the corrupt veneer of nonsense that current elites use to veil the wealth pumps running hotter than ever before.
      It's like he's presumed the Democrats in the US or Lib-Dems/Labour in the UK are doing their best to get us out of the poly-crisis, gosh darn-it, but greedy MAGA Republicans are whipping up a white-lash.. it's like, no, these elites in the Dems especially ramping up since the Clinton admin and for longer in the UK have been breaking down the social contract with social engineering and unsustainable spending, counterproductive policy, undermining education and social capital, etc. They have much more to do with the breakdown than the populist right movements. So do the business and Neoconservative elites that captured the Republican party a long whilr ago. George Bush Senior was the director of the CIA in the 70s and his son kicked off the most recent run of US wealth pump Imperialism that Obama and Biden extended.
      People have to escape blue team red team manipulation. It's the Uniparty.

    • @DouglasHPlumb
      @DouglasHPlumb 10 місяців тому +11

      Right on, like the problems didn't start with fundamental changes of law that allowed those with a different personality to enter our politic. This guy is establishment.

  • @eaglesrule1415
    @eaglesrule1415 10 місяців тому +89

    This interviewer could easily be an advisor to our corrupt political elites. Why our society is in the sad state it is in. Honestly oblivious to their role in our societies decline. From Hope and Change which I bought into to five million people kicked out of their homes and executives keeping bonuses with taxpayer dollars. After covid worse than ever. CARES Act is latest example.

    • @ArthurSchoppenweghauer
      @ArthurSchoppenweghauer 10 місяців тому

      He knows damned well that mass immigration benefits wealthy elites at the expense of the native population. He knows it and doesn't care because he's a rootless globalist.

    • @calumroche2851
      @calumroche2851 10 місяців тому

      41:15 Why would we not want elites wiped out and capital appropriation?

    • @cgoble72
      @cgoble72 10 місяців тому

      I know, if the solution to an occurring societal collapse is to double down on climate authoritarianism, the person is obviously missing something foundational (about structural demographic theory). It is utopian thinking on par with "if everyone converted to Christianity" or "if everyone gave up their possessions an labour for a true communist state".
      The way to test if an individual follows science or dogma is to ask them 'clean hands' questions (from Atran's "In Gods We Trust"): if Trump policies le to a decrease in the wealth pump as Turchin said at one point, and if that also shut off the immigration pump which may (or may not) lead to real wage growth for commoners due to labour shortage, would you support such a thing or not. The answer to that (on both sides) is why this societal collapse will not stop and hasn't yet hit bottom

    • @dshepherd107
      @dshepherd107 9 місяців тому

      Same feeling here

    • @TheJoshuacheng
      @TheJoshuacheng 9 місяців тому +1

      Sums up today’s UK in general (especially southern England)

  • @wlim1260
    @wlim1260 10 місяців тому +38

    I'm watching this in July 2023 while France burns with looting. This feels so prescient.

    • @teddybearroosevelt1847
      @teddybearroosevelt1847 10 місяців тому +5

      The French always protest. It’s just what they do and what they’ve always done. Same shit, different day

    • @deathbycognitivedissonance5036
      @deathbycognitivedissonance5036 10 місяців тому +10

      ​@teddybearroosevelt1847 These recent riots were not "The French."
      Pull your head out of the sand.

    • @jonspengler5891
      @jonspengler5891 10 місяців тому

      That’s multiculturalism

  • @georgeflitzer7160
    @georgeflitzer7160 10 місяців тому +24

    It’s not just competition but needed cooperation is necessary

  • @carlopoy1251
    @carlopoy1251 10 місяців тому +25

    I can't believe how many educated people like this interviewer still choose to believe that oligarchs mean it well and "don't conspire like a medieval king would do"...
    Also: Who explains to this idiot (interviewer) that creating jobs is just a matter of political will and that the main reason why that political will is lacking it's because the oligarchs (who, as evidence suggests, own all of the Western governments) want to be the only ones who determine wages?

    • @silentmajority9162
      @silentmajority9162 9 місяців тому

      Oligarchs are never mean well but it seen to be an inevitable when society develop.

  • @funnyguyinlondon
    @funnyguyinlondon 10 місяців тому +20

    The host keeps making value based arguments on crazy shit like net zero, just transition, policies on which are actually causing more emiseration to the poor contrary to narrative. The author smartly skirts away form affirming the implied value judgement on those nutty ideas from the host

    • @achenarmyst2156
      @achenarmyst2156 10 місяців тому

      The dominance of materially based arguments got us into the global ecological crisis that might well wipe humanity out in the long run. So value based arguments are urgently required. In a closed system, which our planet is, immiseration of the poor is only preventable by „immiseration“ of the rich.

    • @qMartink
      @qMartink 10 місяців тому

      ua-cam.com/video/nvAbKE8-jYA/v-deo.html

  • @akasetkya6253
    @akasetkya6253 11 місяців тому +27

    Reminds me of the saying”Give the devil a horse and he will ride straight to hell”

    • @paulheydarian1281
      @paulheydarian1281 11 місяців тому

      Except that the Devil is a hermaphrodite.

    • @akasetkya6253
      @akasetkya6253 11 місяців тому +2

      An evolutionary process that seems a future option for us if the fertility researchers are correct. Parthenogenesis!

    • @gen21617
      @gen21617 10 місяців тому +1

      Good saying. Who is the devil in this argument and why is he going to hell?

  • @j-dub.d-tray
    @j-dub.d-tray 10 місяців тому +22

    If one plans to upload a conversation to youtube, they should pay attention to audio production quality. Really does a disservice to the audience and the speakers

    • @gilianrampart8514
      @gilianrampart8514 10 місяців тому

      Sounds fine to me!

    • @michaelfried3123
      @michaelfried3123 10 місяців тому +2

      @@gilianrampart8514 I had to crank my speakers to hear it, I think the microphone he was holding is sub par.

    • @deborahdean8867
      @deborahdean8867 10 місяців тому

      I agree, I cant hold thos to my ear for an hour. I can see how their voices fade as soon as they move their hands slightly, so I think the mucs are inferior but wish they'd increased the volume. Its especially necessary with a guest with a heavy accent and talks fast intermittently and mumbles.

  • @tjunglec
    @tjunglec 10 місяців тому +23

    The early 70s is when we lost real money. Its not a coincidence. Fiat money puts the cantilon effect on steroids.

    • @daffyf6829
      @daffyf6829 10 місяців тому

      Precious metal currency was an improvement to granary based currency because gold doesn't rot or get consumed. Paper money representing precious metals was an improvement to precious metal coins because it can't be split or shaved or otherwise reduced. Fiat currency is an improvement on precious metal based currency because it is way more efficient and less costly than storing, securing, maintaining and transporting precious metals.

    • @ScarletKnightmare
      @ScarletKnightmare 10 місяців тому

      ​@@daffyf6829Fiat money cannot be split or shaved, it can be created out of thin air. Are you taking a piss?

    • @marcariotto1709
      @marcariotto1709 10 місяців тому

      @daffyf6829
      Simply isn't enough physical PMs to back world money and grow like the world did and use it for industry also.

    • @gcanaday1
      @gcanaday1 8 днів тому

      ​@@daffyf6829Currency without backing is no improvement. If currencies can be created out of thin air they will be, and have been. Have you seen the balance sheets?

    • @daffyf6829
      @daffyf6829 8 днів тому

      @@gcanaday1 fiat currency is backed by the nation's productivity, which is definitely something. It's basically a standardized bartering system. More importantly, it scales effortlessly with population growth and infrastructure investment and is resistant to outside influence (see Mansa Musa's effect on gold prices during his pilgrimage. See also the inflation of the California gold rush).
      Lastly, it's easy to maintain and control. Some people see this as a bad thing, and I agree with the concern to an extent. It doesn't take much irresponsibility from a Nation's banking system to throw a wrench into the whole thing (see Zimbabwe). To me, the benefits far outweigh the risks though.

  • @judytaquino6412
    @judytaquino6412 10 місяців тому +13

    "Absolute power corrupts absolutely." Remember the Stanford Prison Experiment 1971?

    • @mikepj67
      @mikepj67 10 місяців тому +5

      It’s a flawed experiment, influenced by the person conducting said study. Has been tried again with different results everyone was rather helpful and nice to one another.

    • @dinnerwithfranklin2451
      @dinnerwithfranklin2451 10 місяців тому

      Except that in the Stanford Prison Experiment they excluded psychopaths and sociopaths. The elite select for those traits.

    • @screenarts
      @screenarts 9 місяців тому +2

      Absolutely

  • @mavr1215
    @mavr1215 10 місяців тому +9

    Wow! Stop lecturing and let the man talk!

  • @SuspendedLogic
    @SuspendedLogic 11 місяців тому +62

    His thesis probably won’t get much elite media coverage.

    • @harbifm766766
      @harbifm766766 10 місяців тому

      Most of the elites that control universities , media , banks, and libral Tribe people believe the same marxis ideas or ideals this ignorant person spaw...

    • @subcitizen2012
      @subcitizen2012 10 місяців тому

      You mean mainstream. Academics and their interviews and lectures are usually regarded as elites anyway, of which he's been doing a lot lately promoting his book. I'd ditch the ideologically loaded elite word, it's been overused to the point of being meaningless. Anyone with job security is an elite, but too often thats loaded up to mean a faceless enemy in control of everything.
      A lot of figures and alternative left media are referencing and quoting Turchin, that's how I found him. mainstream news media also doesn't usually cover theory as need though, it covers events mostly. So I'm not sure why you're even expecting them to do that, you're just setting yourself up for disappointment. Allegedly Turchin predicted Jan 6th though, not sure if that's explicitly true yet. Not sure if CSPAN books is still around or whatever, but maybe he'll start popping up and embraced by the elites, as you would put it.
      Anyway, you're expectations are too high, and your terminology loaded. The media you are talking about doesn't generally cover things like this because it's not a news event. Maybe if the book is successful he'll be featured for short interviews and clips, like the occassional academic that becomes mainstream along with current events. Or maybe it's all a big conspiracy to hide the truth from us because elites be eliting. Most people would get lost and/or resent what Turchin is presenting anyway, the masses aren't ready to self reflect or take self responsibility. It's not the illuminati we have to worry about, it's the illiterati that are so easily swayed by the winds of capital.

    • @Knaeben
      @Knaeben 10 місяців тому

      "Elite" media is all just propaganda.

    • @vintinoo1924
      @vintinoo1924 10 місяців тому

      You're so smart.

    • @Vscustomprinting
      @Vscustomprinting 10 місяців тому

      problem is affluence, not elitism.. top 25% shittin on the bottom 75%, and the 75% dont realize that 9ettin9 on the top 25%s level i unsustainable... o well

  • @shamster7182
    @shamster7182 10 місяців тому +19

    The recipeients of the wealth pumps response to the threat of pitch forks has been embracing as a facade so called woke capitalism (ESG), e.g. in western countries aggresive support of lgbtqia (whilst the same corporates completely ignoring in eastern cultures).

    • @casteretpollux
      @casteretpollux 10 місяців тому

      Exactly : CIA sponsored the Neo Marxists.

    • @freonsp
      @freonsp 10 місяців тому +1

      Exactly, and no one explains that better than James Lindsay

    • @dinnerwithfranklin2451
      @dinnerwithfranklin2451 10 місяців тому

      Exactly, but the whole "woke" machine has a second purpose. It also discredits the "Left", in that they have labeled it leftist and people aren't smart enough anymore to examine that.

    • @tom-kz9pb
      @tom-kz9pb 9 місяців тому

      Aggressive support for LGBTQ? We were treated like felon criminals under the law even in "liberal" Massacusetts, in my lifetime.
      The ones most bringing about societal and global collapse are the gay-hating, Christian-embracing authoritarians like Vladimir Putin, who constantly threatens nuclear war, disrupts global grain supplies, kills hundreds of thousands, creates orphans, Same for Trump, who calls global warming a "hoax", while unprecedented climate disasters are occurring around the globe, and called covid a "hoax" before it killed over a million Amercans.
      You can try to scapegoat gays, just like Christian professional bigots have tried to blame gays for hurricanes, earthquakes and 9/11. But your collapse is mostly due to your own choices, Your collapse, in the eyes of a gay man, is fully your just deserts. I no longer dream of real justice, or to change you, or to try to make friends with people like you, All that is left is a desire to watch your bigoted ilk fall into the mass graves that you've been digging for yourselves.

  • @downandout73
    @downandout73 10 місяців тому +13

    Increases in wages & social security need to be indexed to inflation, or it's useless.

    • @dinnerwithfranklin2451
      @dinnerwithfranklin2451 10 місяців тому +1

      That seems to make sense so I have to ask why they haven't been indexed to inflation (and things like COLAs have been removed). The obvious answer for me is that to index these things to inflation means less profit is there to extract with the "wealth pump"

    • @downandout73
      @downandout73 9 місяців тому +1

      @@dinnerwithfranklin2451
      I have to say, I think you're right.

  • @peacesound1101
    @peacesound1101 10 місяців тому +18

    A sober analysis, so much a sober perspective "backed by fact" and running parallel to intuition; it gives me shivers...

    • @ShivMathur
      @ShivMathur 7 місяців тому

      read my book “Social Pandemic” - A Terminally ill Modern Society

  • @BobQuigley
    @BobQuigley 10 місяців тому +77

    Here in Us Reagan and Friedman unleashed greed. It became law in some states and practice in the entire country that corporations have only one command. More money for stockholders. Simultaneously companies dropped pensions. 70 million boomers were chained to this model. Today their retirements are nearly 100% dependent on corporate dividends, splits etc. This group, my group, are following Mr Turchin's iron law! We want more more more. More houses vacations clothes jewelry and on and on. Our stocks can never drop. We invest more in risky businesses. Insider trading is now normalized. We well off rarely if ever have tax audits. All as we spew 51 billion tons of greenhouse gases pollution into our shared atmosphere while doing deep damage to the biosphere which is the source of all life.

    • @gregoryburne5251
      @gregoryburne5251 10 місяців тому +10

      “The glorification of greed” , I’d say was the start…

    • @jamespier7801
      @jamespier7801 10 місяців тому

      Yes, Reagan and Friedman are the ones responsible for human beings being greedy. There was no sign of this greed until they arrived on the scene. 🙄

    • @thewrightoknow
      @thewrightoknow 10 місяців тому +6

      Greed is in every persons heart, I know it is in mine! When is it enough?

    • @gordonpepper1400
      @gordonpepper1400 10 місяців тому +14

      @@thewrightoknow Couldn't disagree more, greed is produced thru ideology. We could easily set up a society whereby greed was not a dominant attribute at all.

    • @thewrightoknow
      @thewrightoknow 10 місяців тому +6

      @@gordonpepper1400 I think the heart of man throughout the history of mankind is self evident that selfishness is in every person, even those who think not.

  • @Liam-B
    @Liam-B 10 місяців тому +10

    For me, this kind of thought plugs right in with Eric Hoffer's, "The True Believer". That said, I am also pleasantly surprised yet refreshed at the poignancy of the questions, and with the simple yet precise language used to really illustrate the ideas Turchin shares. I always appreciate well thought out communication with a sincere yet empirical human being, especially if said human being is a bona fide expert.

  • @bruceclark4754
    @bruceclark4754 11 місяців тому +13

    Did he turn on his microphone. Cant these clever people manage to produce good sound quality?

    • @casteretpollux
      @casteretpollux 10 місяців тому +2

      It is a rule of relativity. As intellect increases sound quality decreases.

  • @angelosenteio
    @angelosenteio 10 місяців тому +5

    The only time in human history that working class people had upward social mobility was under the threat of communism. We need a true left political party to remind them of the alternative.

    • @tom-kz9pb
      @tom-kz9pb 9 місяців тому +2

      I was not sure that there was anyone left who had that insight. Bingo. It is the wealthy who most fear Marxism and communism, the real reason being that they simply don't want their stashes, good life, and ill-gotten gains touched. The little people are suckers for the rich man's propaganda, so work against their own class interests, But capitalism, in addition to waging vicious, no-holds-barred open war and covert war on anything to the left of Reagan, also has had to make concessions to the little people, precisely to ward off the chance of their being seduced by the Marxist siren song.

    • @gcanaday1
      @gcanaday1 8 днів тому

      You're both very wrong.
      They are those who push for the left, because they are those who can fund or defund, and thus control it. It is the situation in the West *now*.
      It has been and will forever be used as the hammer on its flags.

  • @charlessoukup1111
    @charlessoukup1111 8 місяців тому +2

    Good analogy ..more & more players scrambling for fewer and fewer chairs, removing not one but several chairs each round ...
    It's gonna get physical fast.

  • @Amfortas
    @Amfortas 10 місяців тому +12

    Wow all our issues just happen to be related to solutions that involve giving the government more money!

    • @craigs8505
      @craigs8505 10 місяців тому +2

      You mean giving rich people more money?

    • @stephendalton1648
      @stephendalton1648 10 місяців тому

      You mean more taxes?

    • @TheKrouton
      @TheKrouton 10 місяців тому +3

      Unfortunately that seems to be true. The only time in U.S. history, and one of the few times in world history such massive wealth inequality has been reversed without mass violence was the Progressive Era after the Gilded Age.

    • @Ikbeneengeit
      @Ikbeneengeit 10 місяців тому +1

      If you're the 1%, then yes.

    • @screenarts
      @screenarts 9 місяців тому +1

      Government is the creator of it own currency. Government debt is sovereign debt and can be spent directly into circulation. Demand for government money debt, is created by it must be used to pay your taxes. Private banks inflate the currency through fractional reserve lending. Lending what they don't have at interest, and the interest, the loan principal was never actually created. The private banks collect actual created hard currency in loan payments. Money for nothing total controle for free. Federal reserve bank is a private bank originally for profit until most American people took gi bill loans and went directly into debt to the private banks. There is a whole history to how we got here they don't want you to know. I can't teach it in a chat. So do your self a favor stfu until you understand the debt based economic system. Your government doesn't need to barrow money its a sovereign. NY banks wanted 40% interest to fight the civil war. Lincoln simply printed 500 million in greenbacks fought and won the Civil War with it. Read!!!

  • @neovxr
    @neovxr 10 місяців тому +7

    We are conflating definitions of elites.
    1. those who contribute on high levels, because they are educated, knowledgeable, inspiring, and have talent of leadership. Practically a benign meritocracy.
    2. those who have money and power, and their power is a result of networking and meddling with human communication, for instance control over media by ownership structures and advertising schemes.

    • @adriankovac1943
      @adriankovac1943 10 місяців тому

      I know highly capable Silicon Valley engineers who are great capable people but their ideas are so out their that they can help nobody

    • @dinnerwithfranklin2451
      @dinnerwithfranklin2451 10 місяців тому +1

      I'm not sure that conflation is accidental.

    • @neovxr
      @neovxr 10 місяців тому +1

      @@adriankovac1943 no doubt, but can you give us a name or an exmple?

    • @deborahdean8867
      @deborahdean8867 10 місяців тому

      All they mean by elites are people who have alot of money and social position, standing or power.

  • @LongDefiant
    @LongDefiant 9 місяців тому +1

    Interviewer doesn't want to lose his seat at aspirant chairs

  • @lustgarten
    @lustgarten 10 місяців тому +12

    Ask the 1000s of tech employees fired how that employer concern is working out.

    • @MarkPoserina-xj5ft
      @MarkPoserina-xj5ft 10 місяців тому +2

      The workers became obsolete. That’s why they became obsolete. Like the flight engineer and navigator in an airline cockpit.
      A corporation’s primary responsibility is returning shareholder value. Plain and simple. Instead of fighting it, own shares in companies with growing revenue and improving margins.

  • @hilaryporter7841
    @hilaryporter7841 11 місяців тому +45

    That was the sort of conversation that requires time to digest. Thank you.

    • @paulheydarian1281
      @paulheydarian1281 11 місяців тому +1

      I suggest taking a mental laxative. 😏

    • @a.randomjack6661
      @a.randomjack6661 10 місяців тому

      @@paulheydarian1281 Is that what you used to shit your brain out? 😁

    • @gen21617
      @gen21617 10 місяців тому +6

      It is telling that these ideas are new to you. The question you really need to ask is who owns our political infrastructure and how do we implement democracy more democratically?

    • @dwdelve
      @dwdelve 10 місяців тому

      6:16 What are you doing trying to rewrite history? Get your facts straight you lying $#@%

    • @churblefurbles
      @churblefurbles 10 місяців тому +5

      Not only are they not new, they are dilluted to appeal to what seems to be a lefty audience. Demographics and other important factors left out.

  • @ScarletKnightmare
    @ScarletKnightmare 10 місяців тому +2

    You know the "activists" who throw paint on priceless Rembrandts? That's this interviewer.

  • @dlschweppe
    @dlschweppe 10 місяців тому +5

    Oh joy. At the interviewer's blatant misinformation regarding Jan 6 2021, I stopped watching.

  • @attilathearmenian
    @attilathearmenian 4 місяці тому +1

    That point in the 70s Turchin speaks about is us getting off the gold standard.

  • @john1425
    @john1425 10 місяців тому +3

    Hate that the interviewer dragged the level of discourse down so low with his own narrow political worldview.

  • @louistan7560
    @louistan7560 10 місяців тому +3

    The US and the UK are the best examples.

  • @superdeluxesmell
    @superdeluxesmell 10 місяців тому +6

    I’m old enough to remember when priests were the “scientists” of the apocalypse.

    • @NapoleonGelignite
      @NapoleonGelignite 10 місяців тому

      Priests didn’t give us computers, medicine, space flight, etc
      It’s a pity you can’t see the benefit of the scientific method and can only go as far as ‘I like/don’t like it’.

    • @superdeluxesmell
      @superdeluxesmell 10 місяців тому

      @@NapoleonGelignite They kiiiind of did though. There would be no science without the work of Catholic and Muslim members of religious orders in the Middle Ages. I’m not going to list the priests in the modern era who made deep contributions to the enlightenment.
      Anyway, the irony is that you’re the small minded person who is putting words in my mouth and fabricating a straw man. I made no comment about the scientific method. I was commenting on eschatological thinking, which is what a lot of climate change discussion is. Anyone with an understanding of the history of thought can see the straight line going from Greta Thunberg to Noah’s Ark. You’re clearly just another internet NPC who wants me to be some sort of Republican denier of everything. A boring and heavily unscientific presumption. Bye.

    • @deborahdean8867
      @deborahdean8867 10 місяців тому +1

      @@NapoleonGelignite that's not what he said. He said protests used to be the ones delivering apocalypse speeches, the 'scientists' of apocalypse.

    • @GeorgeTsiros
      @GeorgeTsiros 8 місяців тому

      now it is programmers!

    • @NapoleonGelignite
      @NapoleonGelignite 8 місяців тому

      @@GeorgeTsiros - you seem ok with programmers making your phone useful. You should go back to chalk and blackboards.

  • @christinesmith1499
    @christinesmith1499 10 місяців тому +3

    Omg, Chris Hedges has been telling us this for 15 years, it’s time to act now, Jesus, Mary and Joseph!

  • @timothygrayson
    @timothygrayson 10 місяців тому +4

    Wealthiest nations bring about a feel good factor with reduction of social discord. Economic decline tends to signify a collapse of social intergration. The antagonism towards immigrants increases and family ties can weaken. But, the solution does not lie in economic prosperity in fact it destroys the natural world, increases social disparities around the world and spoiling the harmony between ethnic groups because we denude natural resources. Blaming Russia and China will ultimately denigrate relations and trust and only bring warfare. Capitalism relies upon a endless supply of resources which the Western empires have enjoyed for many centuries but the halcyon days are finished and in a civilised world we should be sharing resources and consuming less. Poverty is natural but suffering is unwelcome. Boxing in ethnic groups into economic ghettos is not a solution as it will break the link between us and our natural world. Some nations are too wealthy enriched by centuries of exploitation of nature. If I can survive on a tea cake then why not another? Greed and self worship has undermind compassion and realities of our impact on a finite resource. We need to live in smaller communities which survive through local resources but do not desire wealth but a rational essential to life on earth. 29:02

  • @averayugen7802
    @averayugen7802 11 місяців тому +14

    Offshoring should have been made illegal long ago.

    • @subcitizen2012
      @subcitizen2012 10 місяців тому +4

      This is one of the big ones. I haven't looked at other countries, it's probably similar, but for US and UK, supposedly there's enough money off shore they belongs in the respective systems and economies they the interest payments alone on that wealth are the entire tax base of the two nations. Our governments and our people have been robbed blind, and there's an air of complicity everywhere, it's why we seemingly can't reappropriate those funds.

    • @davidotness6199
      @davidotness6199 10 місяців тому +1

      But, but.... Freedumb!

  • @rexxx4fun
    @rexxx4fun 10 місяців тому +6

    Daniel Schmachtenberger's Consilience Project is a quite good place to start in this conversation.....

    • @tarico4436
      @tarico4436 10 місяців тому

      Shout out to the Schmack! He makes this guy look like an eager high school student. I've only watched the first ten minutes of this video, and am done with it. Yes, some of my hesitancy is because of his heavy accent, but he's not really getting into any juicy meat and potatoes. Ten minutes of the Schmack and I was hooked; have since watched several hours of his talks.

    • @gilianrampart8514
      @gilianrampart8514 10 місяців тому

      ​@@tarico4436you are strange

  • @yossarian67
    @yossarian67 9 місяців тому +2

    Turchin mentions the elites fighting each other… which got my excited for the Musk and Zuckerberg pay per view cage match. Woot

  • @vladdumitrica849
    @vladdumitrica849 10 місяців тому +2

    Countries with parliaments (representative democracy) are in fact oligarchies (few lead). In order to be a true democracy, the decisions of the Parliament should be submitted to the approval of the citizens. The "fatigue" of democracy occurs when there is a big difference between the interests of those elected and the voters, so people lose confidence in the way society function. As a result, the poor and desperate citizens will vote with whoever promises them a lifeline, i.e. the populists or demagogues. The democratic aspect is a side effect in societies where economies have a strong competitive aspect, where the interests of those who hold economic power in society are divergent. Thus, those with money, and implicitly with political power in society, are supervising each other so that none of them have undeserved advantages due to politics. Because of this, countries with large mineral resources, like Russia and Venezuela (their share in GDP is large), do not have democratic aspects, because a small group of people can exploit these resources in their own interest. In poor countries, the main resource exploited may even be the state budget, as they have converging interests in benefiting, in their own interest, from this resource. This is what is observed in Romania, Bulgaria, when, no matter which party comes to power, the result is the same. The solution is modern direct democracy in which every citizen can vote, whenever he wants, over the head of the parliamentarian who represents him. He can even dismiss him if most of his voters consider that their interests are not right represented.
    Those who think that democracy is when you choose someone to make decisions for you without him having to consult you, are either a fool or a scoundrel. It's like when you have to choose from several thieves who will steal from you. It's like when you have to build a house and you choose the site manager and the architect, but they don't have the duty to consult with you. The house will certainly not look the way you want it, but the way they want it, and even more surely you will be left without money and without the house. It is strange that outside of the political sphere, you will not find, in any economic or sports activity, someone elected to a leadership position and who has failure after failure and who is fired only after 4 years. We, the voters, must be consulted about the decisions and if they have negative effects we can dismiss them at any time, without to wait until the term to be fulfilled, because we pay, not them. In any company, the management team comes up with a plan approved by the shareholders. Any change in this plan must be re-approved by the shareholders and it is normal because the shareholders pay.

    • @lelin70
      @lelin70 7 місяців тому +1

      I so much agee with your comment. But…
      As with popularism where politicians will say anything to get to power, people tend to vote for short term gains. Is that all good? Since the world around u dont work that way the direct democratic model wont provide for long time planning that is needed to always make sure your society is not taken over by another state that on long term plans to conquer more land and resources including the place where u live.
      Looks like we humans cant figure out a model that works long term and even if we could we dont seem to be able to stick to such a model over time.
      And we are only human, humans apear with different driving aspirations and tend to use whatever model from marxism to democarcy to justify their personal gain.

  • @araki916
    @araki916 10 місяців тому +14

    Think of elitist, Ivy League and exclusive colleges. I would submit that tech-elite and the coupling of concentrated media are catalyst to a post-dystopia culture/society. Couple that with AI/ML systems that will reduce free will and will accelerate pre-determined social engineers. "Things are getting weird. "😅

  • @ChrisAthanas
    @ChrisAthanas 10 місяців тому +18

    6:19 that’s not what happened at all but the created media reaction by the ruling elite is exactly what Peter is referring to

    • @subcitizen2012
      @subcitizen2012 10 місяців тому

      What if that's what the ruling media elite want your to believe?

    • @matttorrence2900
      @matttorrence2900 10 місяців тому +3

      That’s why I don’t think the sky is that bright, cause he could not see through the propaganda.

  • @timothykalamaros2954
    @timothykalamaros2954 10 місяців тому +33

    Interlocutor was asking some good questions but yes it was awkward. Turchin is a genius

    • @JebacPresretac101
      @JebacPresretac101 10 місяців тому

      Sure, if plagiarizing Marx makes him a genius, yes, he is.

    • @prattfan
      @prattfan 10 місяців тому +3

      Interlocutor is obtuse

  • @pwcrabb5766
    @pwcrabb5766 10 місяців тому +19

    I hope that the man's book is more clear than his spoken thoughts. 😢

    • @bradleyholland4881
      @bradleyholland4881 10 місяців тому +12

      Spoken thoughts are only ever as clear as the mind that receives them.

    • @kharmalade544
      @kharmalade544 10 місяців тому +8

      Yes, the main impression I came away with is that society may soon collapse under the weight of its academic fads.

    • @jtzoltan
      @jtzoltan 10 місяців тому +5

      ​@@bradleyholland4881true, but intelligibility of the message matters. Internal coherence. You can also have 2 intelligent minds who can't connect despite competent messaging. Extreme example: one speaks modern English only, the other one Old Anglo Saxon English only

    • @bradleyholland4881
      @bradleyholland4881 10 місяців тому +1

      @@jtzoltan your example is not extreme, it is absurd because such an example doesn’t exist in reality. And who said that intelligibility doesn’t matter?

    • @Padraigp
      @Padraigp 10 місяців тому

      ​@@bradleyholland4881or the mouth thats speaks them
      In fairness he speaks wirha. Jeavy accent a loap and speaks wirh an odd cadance. Its not exactly weird that somone would find his speech difficult to comprehend.

  • @stephendalton1648
    @stephendalton1648 10 місяців тому +2

    Few minutes in I realised the stark politicial bias and switched off

  • @stefanschnabel2769
    @stefanschnabel2769 10 місяців тому +3

    So many absurd and unhelpful questions asked. Why?

  • @cbarcus
    @cbarcus 6 місяців тому

    Recent US industrial policy is driving innovation and market creation to boost fundamental economic productivity over the coming decades. Too many people are focusing on the renewable energy provisions, and ignoring the economic potential of hydrogen and advanced nuclear power. This new industrial revolution will create an abundant sustainable economy. Excess abundance can be used to provide a generous universal basic income, so full employment is not necessary for social stability.
    This new policy is among the most important in history, and if political stability can be maintained and the provisions properly shepherded by devoted stewards, the windfall in wealth will be unbelievable. We should start seeing an explosion in growth within a decade when the new technology begins to rapidly scale. Once it gets going, it will be a lot easier to decarbonize the rest of the planet.
    To raise the planet out of poverty, we can start by trying to double energy per capita to the level of Western Europe, which will increase the global economy from around $100 trillion to somewhere between $200-300 trillion. Cheap sustainable power will enable mass recycling, universal air conditioning and heating, mass desalination, and even carbon capture to reduce the atmospheric concentration of CO2 back down to pre-industrial levels.
    There is no certainty that the energy transition will happen in time. Political and social instability can give rise to empires as opposed to the economic integration of democracies. Climate tipping points could take warming to a point where it becomes self-sustaining, despite the decarbonization of industry. Hotheaded maniacs could open Pandora’s box by using nuclear weapons in desperation and revenge.

  • @thurstonhowellthetwelf3220
    @thurstonhowellthetwelf3220 10 місяців тому +55

    Ecological overshoot, resource depletion, population, bio physical economics..put them in the mix.. energy is key to explaining our past /future trajectory..

    • @subcitizen2012
      @subcitizen2012 10 місяців тому +12

      50 years of oil reserves left and 100 years of uranium left, and still limited resources and ability to access renewables at scale. The dystopian future is a bit scary to say the least.

    • @gen21617
      @gen21617 10 місяців тому

      So is the corporate hostile buyout of the global political system.

    • @TEKim-lk6op
      @TEKim-lk6op 10 місяців тому

      New energy sources will do very little to benefit the "lower classes" since this new energy will only be controlled by elites. Same with any technology. It doesn't help all unless it is free from elite control.

    • @Amfortas
      @Amfortas 10 місяців тому +9

      Wow all our issues just happen to be related to solutions that involve giving the government more money!

    • @Adnancorner
      @Adnancorner 10 місяців тому +10

      @@subcitizen2012 50 years of oil reserves
      says who ? Iraq alone is using few of the oil fields and majority are unused and are closed after the 2003 democracy installation by western nations. Iran Venezuela is sanctioned with 3 or 4 largest oil reserves.Giant reserves in Kazakhstan and Caspian basin, where did you find the information of 50 years ?
      There is not enough copper to "transition" to Green dream.

  • @jamesx9881
    @jamesx9881 10 місяців тому +2

    Audio Quality?

  • @ArthurSchoppenweghauer
    @ArthurSchoppenweghauer 10 місяців тому +1

    The moderator's mic is way too loud compared to Turchin. Whoever was responsible for the audio should be fired.

  • @haraldthi
    @haraldthi 10 місяців тому +1

    An interesting analysis. Only, I find it incomplete fot various reasons. So do you really think you are going to help when you are yourselves a part of the problem?

  • @peterjrmoore3941
    @peterjrmoore3941 10 місяців тому +11

    5:56 oligarch narrative, supported by interviewer. A better analysis would the typical counter insurgency insurgency tactics of fascistic systems: Hitler's rise to power; the Azov battalion killing both sides during the US led Maidan uprising; the collusion of oligarchs to stage the 1/6 episode - that fooled many people. These acts of violence make people crave a police state, and creates a frightened and submissive populus. The day of the inauguration tanks rolled into Syria and the profiteers from the killing machine were comfortably back in power.
    The international nature of the world's plutocracy means that the collapse of countries is no longer based on nationalist power struggles. The élite have no loyalty to any particular country - it now is truly a globe spanning small cartel of the ultra rich and powerful, many of whom i'm sure we don't know by name

    • @casteretpollux
      @casteretpollux 10 місяців тому

      Important contradiction is the nation-based character of imperialist exploitation and national military industrial complex.

    • @veganandlovingit
      @veganandlovingit 10 місяців тому

      Well said

  • @gregorynuttall
    @gregorynuttall 11 місяців тому +13

    Another thought, I think his method is great to inform the present, but it doesn't help to inform what we could build in the future.
    He's using historical data which can only help us understand the present. That data can't really tell us what we can do. That's what human imagination is for.

  • @thesh1ttyactivist
    @thesh1ttyactivist 10 місяців тому +1

    Really great conversation, however I'm confused as to how speakers can both talk about a coming collapse yet repeatedly endorse the policies of one of the two corporate political parties as the solution?

  • @johnmitchell8925
    @johnmitchell8925 10 місяців тому +45

    Gonna be really interesting to see what all the new immigration to the United States does to the working class

    • @kirstinstrand6292
      @kirstinstrand6292 10 місяців тому +16

      We need immigrants; wages are too low for inflation increasing. Corporate America is trying to stay alive on the backs of their workers. 😢

    • @subcitizen2012
      @subcitizen2012 10 місяців тому

      We need more immigrants for our capitalism to grow so we can revenue out of debt. 60 million willing immigrants worldwide, and no reason for them not to come except for racism and xenophobia. Barring their entry is part of the reason the foot of our future is getting shot off. Or we can keep devolving into a nationalist diet fascism that blames other ethnicities and culture for our problems.

    • @dogukan127
      @dogukan127 10 місяців тому +16

      US immigration has a strategy to it like it or not - as long as the US manages to succesfully "integrate" immigrants succesfully it is what keeps the American hegemony sustainable. Otherwise, USA would have been on demographic decline like rest of Europe and Asia with a lot of older people and few young workers

    • @ianpotter2942
      @ianpotter2942 10 місяців тому

      ​@@kirstinstrand6292 immigrantion to the US encourages population and society depletion of the nations of emmigration. the people lose out except those exploiting all this for profit and power. not a good policy

    • @teenageapocalypseusa5368
      @teenageapocalypseusa5368 10 місяців тому +4

      With AI handling all of the service jobs we won’t have much of a need for unskilled voters any more. Could be a tricky situation as we may have to go back to importing doctors and lawyers.

  • @neovxr
    @neovxr 10 місяців тому +2

    Youth - Revolution - War
    In our time we have lots of tricks in place
    Youth is being lured into new crusades, hypermoralistic education, so they don't revolt against elite but fight on behalf of elite. There are reports about the voluntary mercenaries for Ukraine, Palki Sharma had a report about the training camps with interviews. It showed eliticist ideology and hypermorality among them.
    Arab Spring had a problem that no one seems to understand. First, it was gaslighted by the Facebook algorithm, they overestimated themselves. Second, in every extended family in Egypt and other countries there is a policeman and a higher military person. They have good reputation in their families, other than in the West. They took over the situation on the ground and in the families, and after some difficulty, youth lined up behind them again.

  • @brianwheeldon4643
    @brianwheeldon4643 8 місяців тому +1

    The key part of the issue at stake for humanity is the privilege far too many people assume is their right because they're have sufficient quantity of what ever passes for the legal medium of exhange to effectively destroy the biosphere. Here wecome up against criminal abuse of laws, treaties, people, planet and other life forms. We can't even get ecocide written into the treaty of Rome. Meanwhile we have eloquence everywhere in talks like this, and it's very likely all listening are a part of this extractive criminal class. Perhaps it's in our nature, yet we tell ourselves we are the clever species? But clearly not clever enough by a long way

  • @shamster7182
    @shamster7182 10 місяців тому

    Is min wage a good way to turn off the pump? I think rather it just shifts the allocation of the available wage pool.

    • @craigs8505
      @craigs8505 10 місяців тому +1

      Tax the rich. That or eat them.

  • @caesars7hills892
    @caesars7hills892 10 місяців тому +8

    It’s all to do with the money. The wealth pump is facilitated by fiat and cantilion effect. Hard money standard would only allow elites to be generated via merit.

    • @annoloki
      @annoloki 10 місяців тому +3

      That has never been true.

    • @caesars7hills892
      @caesars7hills892 10 місяців тому

      @@annoloki The whole concept that this gentleman is complaining about is a wealth pump from seeking credentials without adding value to broader society. Look at James Watt. He discovered half of thermodynamics as an instrument maker. He applied his knowledge to create steam engines. That is what the elites should be doing. To some degree it happens in Silicon Valley. But politics and corporate credentials cuts off people with high barriers to entry and is funded with fiat.

    • @slop123456789
      @slop123456789 10 місяців тому +1

      Bitcoin fixes this

    • @Ikbeneengeit
      @Ikbeneengeit 10 місяців тому

      I googled it and got a bunch of conspiracy theory websites. Please state an example of how lowering the interest rate benefits specifically the richest in society.

    • @slop123456789
      @slop123456789 10 місяців тому +1

      @@Ikbeneengeit Artificially low interest rates primarily benefit the wealthiest in society through a number of means. Firstly, they can easily access cheap borrowing, enabling them to fund substantial investments and expand their wealth. Secondly, as asset values rise due to increased demand, the wealthy, who often hold significant investments in scarce assets like real estate and stocks, see their wealth grow further. Thirdly, they can refinance high-interest loans at lower rates, reducing expenses and freeing up capital for more investments.

  • @harlanmueller7499
    @harlanmueller7499 10 місяців тому +1

    Well, let us hold. Our goals are not net 0. That doesn’t produce the energy is jacks up energy costs, and it’s damaging to the firemen.

  • @johnhagan-zr4pm
    @johnhagan-zr4pm 8 місяців тому

    You don't "undo this"
    You endure it

  • @briskyoungploughboy
    @briskyoungploughboy 10 місяців тому

    Not disagreeing with Turchin's "wealth pump" proposition, but I guess because he is a social scientist rather than an economist, and more aware of industrial capitalism because of his age and background, he only recognises @9:50 the falling proportion of wages relative to productivity since the 1970's as the means whereby money is "pumped" from workers to employers. He doesn't mention the parallel massive rise in financial capitalism, causing household debt to both make falling wages possible without crashing the economy (since aggregate demand = wages +new credit), and to grow to be the biggest part of the pump- from household income to bank's shareholders.

  • @ScottStentenFilms
    @ScottStentenFilms 6 місяців тому +1

    thanks for this amazing and great,,,but you guys could call this "The Weatlh Pump" instead of Understanding Societal Collapse with Complexity Scientist Peter Turchin,,,maybe you will excerpt the highlights and change the title,,, not complaining love it, but showbiz works for a reason,,,thanks again

  • @jdsbusa
    @jdsbusa 10 місяців тому +1

    Less than 10 minutes before biases started showing.

  • @toi_techno
    @toi_techno 10 місяців тому +4

    The chairman trying to defend the wealth elites by saying they are just passively and inadvertently enjoying the flow of wealth upwards was a very weird moment
    He must enjoy hanging out with rich people 🤠💵💶💷💴🤑

    • @GeorgeTsiros
      @GeorgeTsiros 8 місяців тому +1

      WE allow the elite to exist. WE permit them to amass such wealth. They are playing a game and we PLAY ALONGA

  • @Adnancorner
    @Adnancorner 10 місяців тому +2

    How is wealth pump was opened ? in 1971 ? closing gold window going on a printing press to print all the money in the world.
    That's how the Money sucking pump was switched on.

  • @Rev-di1vl
    @Rev-di1vl 10 місяців тому +4

    time for the pitchforks

  • @vancecookcobain
    @vancecookcobain 10 місяців тому +1

    Sounds like Marx describing Historical Materialism. Dude was really ahead of his time

  • @nejcj1
    @nejcj1 10 місяців тому +6

    Yes, I really like the idea of renaming sociology into complexity science. :D

  • @timothykalamaros2954
    @timothykalamaros2954 10 місяців тому +3

    Talk to some lawyers - the law bosses definitely wan to immiserate the lower strata. Literally, and not accidentally!

  • @beliefpropagation2421
    @beliefpropagation2421 10 місяців тому

    It's predictable criminality that the closed caption regularly replaces "immiseration"with "immigration"

  • @lepetitvapophile5054
    @lepetitvapophile5054 10 місяців тому +2

    'pioneer in the science of predicting... ' : man, Asimov decribed this decades ago, psycho history, and insurance companies and share traders are using this (complex systems/non liners systyems) since the 50's. I appreciate the talk though, (been waiting for his kind of conscience to emerge and it is reassuring to 'not feel I may be mad') but it is faint and weak in its conclusions.

  • @johnhagan-zr4pm
    @johnhagan-zr4pm 8 місяців тому

    As is the generation of leaves, so to of men:
    At one time the wind shakes the leaves to the ground
    but then the flourishing woods
    Gives birth, and the season of spring comes
    into existence;
    So it is with the generations of men, which
    alternately come forth and pass away.
    -Homer, The Illiad, Book Six

  • @KimSooAcu
    @KimSooAcu 10 місяців тому +15

    Great conversation, GREAT information.
    I don't agree that we need the elites. That may be true in organized society, but I no longer want that.

    • @atticustay1
      @atticustay1 10 місяців тому +5

      We don’t need elites for organised society.

    • @KimSooAcu
      @KimSooAcu 10 місяців тому +1

      @@atticustay1 id like to find out.

    • @ianboard544
      @ianboard544 10 місяців тому +1

      It's semantics. You are going to have to have some people running things. Once you have that, you have elites. Call it what you want.

    • @derek8149
      @derek8149 10 місяців тому +1

      This line of thinking is a sign of revolution. There are always elites and hierarchies in society. No such thing as a utopia where everyone contributes to decisionmaking and leadership equally and everyone receives the same amount of wealth and resources. Last I heard they tried that in the Soviet Union and communist China, and ended back into an oligarchy where a few elites controlled all once more, and killed tens of millions to get there. Even in nature there are always hierarchies in every animal group. You may not want it but it is a law of nature and cannot be avoided, only tweaked

  • @alfred-vz8ti
    @alfred-vz8ti 10 місяців тому +2

    cliodynamics rests on the notion that h. sap. has underlying principles of action, maybe so, and we can use them to shape society.
    nope.
    the drivers of human society may well be simple, but generally not responsive to logic, or justice, or even self-preservation.

    • @polybian_bicycle
      @polybian_bicycle 10 місяців тому

      There is a human nature that is determined by our biology. Becauae of this shared human nature, humans tend on a societal level react in recurring ways. The reactions are not exactly the same, because culture also influences things, but nevertheless you can deduce predictable actions from this. It is just that we have denied this reality and have been living under the dogma of tabula rasa.

  • @AdamGeest
    @AdamGeest 10 місяців тому +5

    One way to constrain the elite would be to democratize the workplace. A democratically run workplace would channel the wealth pump more effectively without chasing away the elite.

    • @jondavidgriffin
      @jondavidgriffin 10 місяців тому +1

      That sounds incredibly inefficient. What kind of workplace to you spend your time in?

    • @AdamGeest
      @AdamGeest 10 місяців тому +4

      @@jondavidgriffin what is inefficient is our current economic system. Every 4 to 7 years it tanks leading to lost job opportunities, layoffs, etc. The current economic system also tends inexorably toward economic inequality, effectively imploding on itself. Any of the reforms we put in place to curb this tendency and turn off the wealth pump are eventually undone. We tolerate the inefficiency of democracy in the political sphere because democracy beats other forms of government. If democracy is so great why not democratize the economy? Arguably, without a democratized economy we cannot truly have a democratized political sphere. The workplace is where we spend some of the most productive hours and years of our lives. Why should our status as democratic agents end when we go to work?

    • @jondavidgriffin
      @jondavidgriffin 10 місяців тому +1

      @@AdamGeest you are making a couple of assumptions that shouldn't be made. Firstly that economic inequality is a bad thing, and secondly that democracy is a good thing. I don't agree with either.

    • @AdamGeest
      @AdamGeest 10 місяців тому +3

      @@jondavidgriffin Go be a slave in a capitalistically structured business where the man takes more than half of the value you add to the company away from you. Please do so in an authoritarian country.

    • @jondavidgriffin
      @jondavidgriffin 10 місяців тому +1

      @@AdamGeest what are you, like 19 years old or something? I started my own business. It's easy and cheap to set up you just need good ideas or a strong work ethic, or both.

  • @jan_deno8175
    @jan_deno8175 8 місяців тому

    සුරේන්ද්‍ර Covid කාලයේදී අපේ architecture undergraduates ලාට ඉතා වැඩදායක වැඩමුළුවක් කරා.

  • @contiman1
    @contiman1 Місяць тому

    Everything traditionally revolves around the distribution of capital, the availability of public goods and opportunities for enrichment for the general population....heh..the French loved their king Louis very much..and when he started doing everything wrong...he was chopped into fine minced beef. .and fed to stray dogs...

  • @garyjohnson1466
    @garyjohnson1466 11 місяців тому +2

    Interesting discussion

  • @EmpressEris
    @EmpressEris 10 місяців тому +2

    Seize the means of production, deterrence, and automation. Replace the elites with a federated AI system.

  • @free_at_last8141
    @free_at_last8141 9 місяців тому

    Did you forget to turn the microphones on?

  • @globalwarming382
    @globalwarming382 10 місяців тому +4

    We need to eat the elites. They taste better.

  • @kateoneal4215
    @kateoneal4215 10 місяців тому +19

    This guy's great! I've listened to several of his talks.

    • @augustusomega4708
      @augustusomega4708 10 місяців тому

      ETR !!

    • @michaeljensen4650
      @michaeljensen4650 10 місяців тому

      The presenter however could not be more full of shit. Everything he said was a repetition of old views and arguments which are nothing more than propaganda. How do people like him live with themselves. Oh I forgot, they have no conscience.

    • @coreyhingley6196
      @coreyhingley6196 9 місяців тому

      Any recommendations?

  • @mohamedseleem
    @mohamedseleem 10 місяців тому +20

    i love the scientists are trying to rediscover historical dialectics without ever reading Hegel or Marx, fascinating people these positivists

    • @joejohnson6327
      @joejohnson6327 10 місяців тому +19

      Turchin went to university in Moscow in the '70s, of course he's familiar with Marx. All Soviet high school students had to take Marxism classes.🙄

    • @ofnair
      @ofnair 10 місяців тому +12

      Turchin has read Marx, and his theories do, partially, incorporate Marx insights. He does, however, reject Marx as being some kind of allknowing God. And he also incorporates Malthus, a guy Marx hated.

    • @subcitizen2012
      @subcitizen2012 10 місяців тому +1

      Lol, alright. What does that make you then? Something else so easy to refute out of hand?

    • @evanhadkins5532
      @evanhadkins5532 10 місяців тому +1

      Toynbee 2.0?

    • @casteretpollux
      @casteretpollux 10 місяців тому +1

      ​@@joejohnson6327If they had been seriously studying Marx hard to see how the 80s and 90s happened.

  • @jackgoldman1
    @jackgoldman1 10 місяців тому

    Honest measures, gold money honest results. Dishonest measures, credits, debts, crypto, pixels, digits, and of course we collapse.

  • @oldspammer
    @oldspammer 10 місяців тому +4

    It has been well established that cultural shifts can drive changes in politics and vice versa. Something drove the 1960s counterculture and use of and promotion of illegal drugs.
    All of these things are driven by wealthy banking tycoons who fund both sides of political debates and the formation of laws through huge lobbyist efforts. Often the tycoons have long ago already written legislation, and are shopping around for which paid-off politician can put their name to it. These are called yesmen.
    Tycoons fund political movements and public relations campaigns and research into psychology involving the use of drugs--psychiatry.
    Bankers who offer deals to certain businessmen enable those businessmen to become multi-billionaire tycoons who go on to strongly influence the direction taken in a nation. Two groups of men strongly influenced education--Rockefeller dynasty and Carnegie Foundation. Through education monopolies, they changed the practice of medicine. They funded a fake study that shut down their competition by closing all medical schools that were not teaching their brand or kind of medicine. They then made medical practice a monopoly by compelling the government to issue licenses to practice.
    They funded Marxism, women's liberation, war, and anti-war sentiments. They wanted to change society worldwide by doing these things everywhere.
    Wall Street lawyers who worked for tycoons' business firms founded the OSS and then the CIA which were involved in subversive spy agency activities.
    Influential powerful people are invited to join secret societies with secret extremely serious oaths. These are the Luciferian Free Masonic groups. They then funded both sides of the Marxism movement.
    You see, a poor person can do NOTHING, but a banking tycoon can orchestrate all kinds of things by driving a nation into a HUGE debt by instigating endless wars, income taxes, collection of taxes, the funding crooked yesmen politicians, loosening and tightening monetary policies that can drive political unrest by causing boom and bust cycles of poverty.
    Pawns and puppets who act on their behalf--useful idiots, dupes, and patsies.
    Two factions within the same tycoon dynasty can uplift and put down a popular Marxism uprising such as MLK and the civil rights movement. One side allowed MLK to rise, and the other side got away with assassinating him while showing him to have been a pastor who numerously had extramarital affairs with groups of ladies cheating on his unfortunate wife and family--hardly a moral compass to be emulated.
    Some of this is outlined in the various films of G. Edward Griffin--The Capitalist Conspiracy, etc.
    Each war had consequences that ended up being the purpose of the war in the first place. Many of these wars were concerning Marxism which has never worked ever. The Bolsheviks were supported by banking tycoons in Europe and the USA. Prof. Dr. Antony C. Sutton wrote books and produced talks about how money can be traced as originating from people who had a revolutionary spirit and who had bottomless pockets of money that were made to happen by strongly influencing international law formation that in turn triggered the starting and ending of wars and revolutions all over the world.
    The money managers of tax-exempt charitable foundations have long funded Marxism according to a 1972 series of lectures by the author of None Dare Call It Conspiracy--Gary Allen whose talks were supported by the very factions that Gary Allen was trying to expose as corrupted--JBS--the John Birch Society that was in part funded by one faction of the Rockefeller dynasty.
    Various political movements including Marxism promote globalism that simplifies the banking tycoons' ability to seize total world control which was their aim starting thousands of years ago.
    Follow the money.
    See
    --> "none dare call it conspiracy" UA-cam 2012 "federalexpression"
    This UA-cam creator has a large number of various lectures in a large playlist. Watch them all, but keep an open mind that there is even more to everything said.

    • @henrydodd7001
      @henrydodd7001 10 місяців тому

      Your comment should be pinned at the top.

  • @mrme3717
    @mrme3717 10 місяців тому

    Here's a quick primer on what's wrong and what to do about it.
    ALL fiat currency is debt, that's the only way the Fed makes it, whether through government bondage note, or private bank loans.
    Bankers have developed four practices that
    are unsustainable and catastrophic.
    If we dont understand the causes of a problem we will address the symptoms or actors, not the causes.
    1st. Large private and Central banks have obtained the Exclusive franchise to create ALL new Currency as Debt, at interest.
    An increasing population needs an increase in currency, but it is ALL created as a debt to the Central Bank, bearing interest.
    This indebts the whole world, every person, every government, in totally unpayable debts, ( because where can the interest come from) enslaving us all to bankers through personal debt or ever increasing oppressive and unjust taxation, permits, licences, registrations, regulations, rates, duties, fees, fines, levies, surcharges, adinfinitum, of which an increasing volume goes straight to the debt creators, who created it for free. (At zero cost to themselves.)
    2nd. Because of the first fault, (wherein a Central bank has the Exclusive franchise to create ALL new money,) and they attach interest to it, (which they do not create) they must continually create more currency to pay the interest on the last round of debts and to resupply liquidity as debt repayments suck the currency they created out of the national economy.
    The volumes of the booms and busts are totally unnatural and the economy should follow population growth.
    Inflation, (or rather, devaluation through deliberate currency oversupply,) is intentional and destructive to all but the rich. There is virtually no limitation on fiat currency creation.
    Adding to this is fractional reserve banking wherein private banks effectively create massive new Currency volumes, (but its onky temporary because it's all debt) blowing bubbles (in housing/CRE/stocks) which devalues everyone's savings, work, 401k & pension, by raising all prices.
    We call this inflation, but it's really devaluation of your savings, time, work.
    Shrinkflation further adds to our reduction and desolation.
    (Did you know the only time our society gets some real new Currency ? It's when someone goes bankrupt and can't repay the banks what they borrowed. )
    The fix ? The first step is to end Central Banks and return to Sound Metalic Money.
    This will slow the rate of currency creation and make it much more difficult to devalue our wages and savings by currency 'printing.'
    The 2nd step would be to legislate that banks publish their reserve ratio. So if they have $100 million on their books in deposits, and $50 million in loans, that's a 50% reserve ratio. We could legislate a reserve ratio, and by openly publishing this people can choose the risk level they are willing to take.
    This will change banking and we need to change banking, because it is destructive. The banks wont be able to make as much, and that's a good thing.
    We need to make money anything the people want, but legal tender must meet Metalic standards under the office of weights and measures, and national and state treasury departments and mints could produce and release real intrinsic value Money.
    This will not create inflation like some bankers/economists would have you think.
    It is not who creates currency that drives the Constant devaluation of your work & money, it is THE VOLUME per population/ productivity.
    The banks increased the base currency supply by over 65 % since March 2020 & 300% since 2008. This was multiplied as deposits were rolled back into cheap real estate loans creating bubbles, which further lever up equity to back more loans.
    You can't spend it off planet, and we've had no increase in population or productivity. How can it not devalue our savings, wages and retirement funds by a similar % as it enters the economy ?
    3rd problem. Fiat currency whether paper OR DIGITAL has no intrinsic value, thus it cannot be used as a long term store of value, particularly in an ever expanding fiat system. Taxation and the 'legal' currency label attached to fiat creates artificial demand for fiat currency.
    The fix ?
    Return to Silver, Gold, Copper & Nickle currency, designated by weight, not cents/dollars. These will find their own local value. These can't be printed to oblivion, have intrinsic value, and are a safeguard against bankers counterfeiting. Continue to keep the manufacture of Gold & Silver rounds by private mints & foundries to help keep government mints honest.
    Do not allow bankers and economists of the current system to con you into believing there isn't enough Metalic Money. You float its value, mint it by grams and ounces and you have a Gold and Silver backed currency. Same with Copper & Nickle. Mint 10th ounce, 2 10ths, 5 10ths and 1 ounce and grams in 1 grams, 2 grams, 5 & 10 grams. Never give it a 'value number,' which is a lie. Give it its weight & purity, and let the market decide what it will buy. Call it 'slow money," like 'slow food.' It's slower for sure, but it's 10 times better for you.
    Probably necessary to nationalise mines & pay shareholders out in metals. We are aiming at a more just, more perfect union, and that requires we treat shareholders justly and make them whole while preserving a mining and exploration industry. So gently, thoughtfully, carefully on this one.
    4th. The 'World Bank' and IMF are your friendly international arms of the Federal Reserve, who loan worthless US currency invented at zero cost to enslaved nations of people to purchase necessities, when their own commodities or worthless currency would do just as well. This ensures the indebtedness of nation's simply to survive.
    Correct these 4 Principles and >80 % of a nation's problems would disappear.
    Do not allow your masters the Debt slave creator's to tell you it can't be done. They are not seeking your best interests, but theirs. It is easily done.
    Beware. The FED, IMF, WEF wants you totally enslaved with Digital currency. Convert your garbage fiat currency into Gold and Silver or prepare for destruction.
    Come to think of it, you better prepare for destruction anyway, because humans are animals and always learn the hard way.
    The bankers motto is : 'Preserve your Capital at all costs.' The bankers are buying Gold. We the people can afford Silver.
    Good luck.

  • @HomesteadRanger
    @HomesteadRanger 6 місяців тому

    What to do about collapse @homestead ranger

  • @alexcarter8807
    @alexcarter8807 10 місяців тому

    Love the bottle of vodka right there on the table. Honesty.

  • @Rdogman12345678
    @Rdogman12345678 9 місяців тому

    On target

  • @wellingtonfungwe4742
    @wellingtonfungwe4742 11 місяців тому +8

    The conversation was great but the host was talking too much as if he was trying to impress his guest or audience. A lot of time has been wasted that the guest could have used productively if the questions were short and to the point. Otherwise I enjoyed the discussion

    • @modelclasslist
      @modelclasslist 10 місяців тому +1

      Care to contribute to it in the comments instead of misguided focus on personality and process of communication?

    • @anthonypiraino2863
      @anthonypiraino2863 10 місяців тому +1

      Yes, I agree with your point. The host wasted a lot time trying to show his understanding, or lack thereof.

  • @chrisschene8301
    @chrisschene8301 10 місяців тому +6

    We have to switch from fossil fuels because they will eventually run out. However, change of primary energy sources takes a long time: an average of 75 years.
    Climate change is a done deal and there is no chance to move to net 0 before 2100.

    • @alanmcrae8594
      @alanmcrae8594 10 місяців тому

      Spot on! Even creating & distributing renewable energy systems requires burning fossil fuels. Global climate change is happening, it is a climate state change on a vast scale, and once enough trigger points are crossed it is a ball rolling in that groove that Turchin mentioned.
      Fossil fuels are what made modern society with its 3 doublings of human population possible, but they are the principal cause of the global climate crisis - the leading edge of which is now upon us. The foreign wars for access to Lithium, Cobalt, etc to create the energy storage systems needed for non-dispatchable renewable energy systems have already begun as well.
      Sounds like the possibility for a "soft landing" is a long-shot of 10-15% probability. Realistically, that sounds about right.

    • @explosivetwist
      @explosivetwist 9 місяців тому

      climate change is fake news. it's a socio-economic and political ideology to govern and manage society using a resource credit based economy. also, fossil fuels is a misnomer. oil is not just crushed up compressed leaves and dinosaur bones.

  • @richardharvey1732
    @richardharvey1732 11 місяців тому +5

    Hi The Conduit, this is the first time I have watched one of your videos. This guest clearly has his brain switched on from the start, he correctly dismisses any use of collapse-ology if for no other reason than such events are always occurring and the only relevant issue is the location and perspective of the observer.
    Sections of human communities are always traversing similar dynamic states, from generation to degeneration, the only thing that really varies is the scale.
    There are clearly some fundamental principles implied by the fact that periods societal and economic growth are always followed by periods of decline, there must be some primary drivers for this to be so consistent. So far all any of us have been able to do is describe the trajectory of various historical events in mechanical terms that do indicate a sequential series of causes and effects that suggest the primary cause of failure is inherent from the start, there are some factors in the initiation sequence that pre-condition the outcome.
    It will be here somewhere that some primary theory could be derived and I start by suggesting that there could be some aspects of human biological nature that inclines us to making false assumptions about the environment around us that leads us to making bad decisions about the deployment of resources
    I am inclined to start by listing all the assumptions that are currently in the public domain and examine each of them for empirical evidence in order to establish which of them qualify as cognitive delusion and which of the might have some foundation in reality.
    Suddenly I find myself swamped by the plethora of unsubstantiated assumptions that have no supporting evidence, among them are concepts that no-one feels competent to question, such as the intrinsic value of democracy, the idea that any other person could be more competent to direct your life than you can, that any other person is actually capable of acting properly in the interest of any other.
    There are many others that appear to me to be instrumental in the whole edifice of regulation and control, much of which seems to be related to the deep sense of insecurity that is so common in 'normal' humans, that feeling is more than enough to direct people to seek the protection of others perceived to be more powerful or competent. All sorts of other normal human characteristics play into this including the aspirations of the small cohort in each population that qualifies as an elite, a term which. I seek to avoid because it is too simplistic.
    What I mostly observe is the docile compliance of all the victims of tyranny as a primary driver of that tyranny.
    By this point I am of course facing a situation where it is clearly the weaknesses in human perception that allow most of the mis-direction and error and if this is actually the case then what we experience is nothing more or less than this species living according to the nature of its form and that makes such future ebbs and flows entirely natural and predictable.
    Cheers, Richard.

    • @sturam30
      @sturam30 11 місяців тому +1

      Okay, yeah 😵‍💫

    • @hilaryporter7841
      @hilaryporter7841 11 місяців тому +5

      Rather concerned that the first assumption you saw fit to put forward for investigation was democracy. My first assumption would have been to question why it is that greed drives the so called elite and and why enough is never enough. When we have the answer to that we may find ourselves on the way to a more peaceful future.

    • @richardharvey1732
      @richardharvey1732 11 місяців тому +3

      @@hilaryporter7841 Hi Hilary porter, thank you for such a sensible response, my issue with the concept of democracy is based on its fundamental flaw! that the majority is always wrong!. When I first encountered this I was a bit put out by the sheer dogmatism of the claim but further investigation reveals that the underlying issue is the because any suggestion that a majority will vote for has to be so weakened and diluted or otherwise compromised that it is of no value!.
      More recently I have uncovered another more serious problem, relating to the fact that absolutely all of us live as separate individuals in our own space with our own sets of values and interests, while some of these o=are we have in common with others we cannot ever expect to live in any form of fully homogenous culture, this for ever precludes any sort of majority rule.
      The much more interesting topic you mention is the issue of primary motivation, that it would be nice to be able to understand why some people put such short term short sighted ambitions that we see as greed, those that I have met and talked to use a number of ways to justify themselves, the most common being some obscure reference to a distorted picture of evolution that 'explains' such selfishness. Sadly this falls apart at the first logical test where we find of course that sensible collaboration with other people can yield much greater benefits as long as you will allow others the freedom to do good things.
      For long time I considered the possibility that there might be some primary emotional driver or drivers and here we find some interesting ideas. It seems to me from observations of myself and many others that one of the b=natural characteristics of humans is quite high levels of emotional insecurity and anxiety, like others I thought that the origin of such feelings had to be some external events or agency and that stimulated the desire to control those events and agencies in order to suppress the feelings. I quickly found that nothing I could think of worked however hard I tried!. In the end I gave up trying, and guess what, with the pressure off everything seemed to change!, now I see others apparently still trapped in the same endless circle of effort and search for a security they don't even need.
      This could account quite neatly for why some sad individuals expend unlimited effort and resources to get richer and richer while getting more and more desperate. This is of course a major over-simplification, given that each and every one of them is on a similar but divergent path. each with its own unique agenda.
      There is one last small point that I feel I should try to make, when I was quite young I was sure that all I had to do was find out out what was going on and how it all works and I would be able to get some sort of grip on things, in my early thirties I began to realise that I had managed to resolve most of the mystery but it made absolutely no difference! we all us carry on doing things in the same weird ways regardless, it appears that not only do none of us ever have any real control over others we have even less over ourselves, everything that happens is the consequence of earlier decisions, by the time we realise what is happening the die is cast and all we can do is roll with it all. Then we get caught up in the next unpredicted round. I very much doubt that we mere humans have what it takes to behave in properly sensible ways. I suppose I do still hope to be proved wrong, perhaps you could be the one to do that!.
      Cheers, Richard.

    • @BigHenFor
      @BigHenFor 11 місяців тому

      Lol.

    • @BigHenFor
      @BigHenFor 11 місяців тому +1

      ​@@richardharvey1732Sadly, your position isn't always correct. The majority isn't always wrong. It's just not right all the time. No-one is, including you. Ideas are definitely organic in that they evolve according to their environment, and deciding between one and another is rarely clear cut. Compromises often have to be made for progress to be possible. Uncertainty is a constant, and operating in that requires wisdom, which is hard work. So, the back and forth between extreme optimism and extreme pessimism about the human condition is a feedback loop that has consequences. So we should concentrate on the inputs. GIGO applies in every system.

  • @jasminealixandranorth
    @jasminealixandranorth 10 місяців тому

    Abridged version? :)

  • @apersonlikeanyother6895
    @apersonlikeanyother6895 3 місяці тому

    48:50 We no longer need elites in the sense he means. His perspective is good but limited by his presuppositions.

  • @briskyoungploughboy
    @briskyoungploughboy 10 місяців тому

    @12.00 - 13.35 ffs guys! it's financialisation of the economy!!

  • @hugor1338
    @hugor1338 10 місяців тому +3

    The interviewer seems very tribal in his politics. Probably an early life thing.

  • @leahannwhite1111
    @leahannwhite1111 10 місяців тому +4

    Societal collapse is imagined. 💓

  • @EstevesxD
    @EstevesxD 10 місяців тому

    Thank you youtube algo god.