This is financial advice and I never give financial advice: DONT LEAVE DURING THE BEAR. If you don’t want to invest…learn. If you don’t want to learn…build. If you don’t want to build observe. DO SOMETHING…other than leave. There is so much opportunity here. Take advantage!
Just because there are opportunities in the market doesn’t mean you should go in blindly. To understand the potential factors that contribute to your financial growth, I'll advise you to seek the help of a professional.
*ROCHELLE DUNGCA-SCHREIBER* is my portfolio-coach, I found her on Bloomberg where she was featured, I looked up her name on the internet. Fortunately I came across her site and reached out to her, you can verify her yourself.
This is actually one of the most "normal" conversation I've seen on CNBC, not people shouting and trying to raise voice altogether or cut off other people's talking.
@@miketime4290 no you're thinking of Michael Burry. Eisman saw it after people had already interacted with Burry and then said "oh yeah 2+2 IS 4!" Burry saw it a mile away and before anyone else.
What makes rates go up is inflation. What causes inflation is an increase in price. Tariffs will do that. Money seeking commodities as a store of value will do that. A devalued USD will do that. A protracted recession/ depression taking supply off the table then followed by helicopter money to the people, not the banks, will instantly inject demand that flows thru into price causing inflation and central banks to increase rates will do that.
@@arterranrenewables7162 If the central bank keeps buying treasuries and increases the price of the bonds - the yields will continue to fall. The problem is the central banks are monetizing the debt and as long as they can continue to fund, which they have an unlimited balance sheet, there's no reason to think that rates will go up. If there are no buyers the Fed will be the buyer/lender of last resort. The only end I see is the dollar eventually hyper inflates to zero like all fiat currency will. It's true value.
3 things 1. Fear. Interest is a prediction of risk 2. Switch away from Libor changed the calculations involved with average interest rates. 3. Inflation
I lived in America for 5 years, travelled all over the country - never heard anyone say this even once. Land of ego and the ego won't allow it. Was stared in the face and lied to on a daily basis just so the person didn't have to say "I dunno"
A BIG Thank You to Steve Eisman for at least mentioning how unfair the current system is to conservative savers who have chosen not to rely primarily on the manipulated markets as they try to plan responsibly for the long run / surprise expenses.
IF you're in long term bonds, you're actually making more than you think due to the increase in price of those bonds. You only get screwed if you hold bonds until maturity.
@@jfort5234 This certainly is bad advice for the average Joe and should only be done by professionals or people, who understand how the bond market and the economic cycle works and how central bank policies interfere with these things. I learned trading from an early retired Goldman Sachs trader and I can tell you, that what you're suggesting is a high risk trade. If you just want to save your money from inflation, you should save in gold and stay away from the stock market, because a recession will easily wipe out 50% of your savings and you don't want to deal with the stress of telling your wife, husband or children, that you just lost half of your savings in a game, that you do not fully understand. Don't buy stocks, if you do not have the ability to predict a recession. If you can predict GDP growth, then go for it, because this enables you to earn money on the way down, too.
@@MarkSass I never implied that you should use long term bonds as a speculative trade. I'm merely pointing out that if you already had long term bonds, then you could sell those bonds and realise a substantial capital gain due to declining rates. Of course you have to figure out what to with the money after that.
Joey Gee wrong; it’s like the trade talks then saying Nope, striking market FUD
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He lost all credibility when he said >>>"I don't see any problem with the banks." Fri could be "black" Fri, with the bank stocks leading the way now that the shorts in the bank stocks all commited hari kari on bank earnings news this week.
He was short Tesla at 250 and it went to 1000$. Still higher than it was before the interview at 350-400. I guess he lost a lot of money on Tesla alone...
PCA Pent He did point out it was ‘hard to short a cult’ and was a minor short, so he knew going in it was risky. But really, Tesla’s fundamentals are terrible. But not all terrible companies can be shorted- ask Herballife.
@ Lol with the FED dropping liquidity bombs, Shorts are getting smashed, however as when sentiment is at extremes is the best to take a contrarian view.
Pavel Polyakov they have to put the truth right in front of the public before they pull the carpet from under investors That way when it happens, the fault is on the very same people who lost, the ones who were not paying attention
@@jennafagerholm4248 I don't know if you noticed but he was wrong on his 2 shorts, tesla almost doubled and zillow went up 50%. They're sticking to their do exactly the opposite as we say to make money, very well.
robbycast I think it’s a very mild way of saying “Hey there’s a recession on the way” exactly like the guy above said but it’s gonna be way way worse than he says, Im sure of it. If they say it’s good it’s bad If they say it’s bad it’s terrible lol
[9:30] Analysts have been shorting TSLA (Tesla) since 2010. In that time, the stock has gone from $19.20 to over $250 this month and the company has evolved from a small startup to a manufacturer of the best selling electric car in the world (far outpacing BAIC and Nissan), the first successful new car company in North America in generations, and is now selling vehicles globally with their Model 3 being in the top 5 of best selling sedans in many international markets; that is, the top selling of all cars, gas and electric, in several markets. These are phenomenal achievements, but, as Mr. Eisman said, one issue with Tesla is production, with the company receiving nearly 110,000 orders last quarter and only able to deliver less than 100,000. It is also difficult to disagree with Mr. Eisman that Elon Musk's moves are frequently incomprehensible in light of financial markets, but when stepping back and taking the long view, the trajectory of the company has been positive.
The stock price is the problem! It's currently at $330 and that's tremendously overpriced for a relatively small car manufacturer. It doesn't grow naturally with it's business numbers its growth is generate because of the hype around Elon Musk. I wouldn't short Tesla because people are greedy idiots but I wouldn't invest in it either.
I love this guy. Eisman is so transparently honest. Everyone ought to be listening to people like Eisman and Burry, analysts whose ideas are upheld and reinforced by simple fundamentals.
I don't live in San Jose and I predicted a crash ! Borrow money with no money down ? Buy a house and it goes up so you take the profit and buy two more houses. And if it goes down in price you walk away and leave the problem with the bank ???? What crazy Bank agrees to that deal ? And who would say no ?? You end up with 20 year old hair stylists owning 4 properties and then walking away from the loans . Who could not predict that ?? ( All of Wall Street for a start !!!!! )
@@nofurtherwest3474 if there was a way to short college loans that could be the next one. the government and other players have been trying to minimize the damage as much as they can and might even get away with it, but its a delicate situation. i also think crypto might be something to look at. the intrinsic value is almost nothing, and once its fully regulated, the number 1 utility it had goes out the window. its so volatile and seemingly silly to invest large sums of money on it, but i rode the wave myself and am looking to get out in the next year or so after the incredible profits already made. it could go up higher, 100k even, who knows, but its a scary one.
There is a fine line between bravery and stupidity, shorting Tesla is just plain dumb, whatever happens to them. It's a full on dick move. But hey some ppl like dicks.
This video was published on Oct 16th 2019 when Tesla stock was trading around $50. Today it is trading at $805. Wonder how much Steve would have lost on that short and i'm pretty sure he would have doubled down on his short over time.
There is still time for Tesla. Musk is now involved in a scandal in NY with SolarCity. And if you think Tesla is immune, SolarCity has kept its book closed from a third party accounting firm to see how much Teslas funds are intermingled. And you can bet they are.
Finally someone who sees it. It is the overcapacity, or said otherwise, there is lack of demand in the real economy. Borrowers are maxed out and savers have no income to spend, so demand is dwindeling. Hence the contracting ISM. Unenployment will shoot up in the coming months. We are already in recession, the numbers just don´t show it yet, and there is nothing the FED can do about it and they know it. It can offer credit, but it can´t force people and companies to borrow.
question: all this QE has to produce devaluation of the currency, doesn´t it? will the dollar go into a crisis where it will lose a lot of value ? (I´m prietty ignorant on this topics, I´m trying to learn)
@@JohnSmith-lj4dd Totally right. If you're smart enough, you know it doesn't feel good when this guy is shorting the 3rd biggest European bank that had its stocks already shrinked by 97% in 10 years. Also he mention the ECB to be full of sh*t and he's right
@@agentsmith2798 actually that part of the movie is fictional. There is no Jared Vennett in real life, and no one called pitching an idea by accident. FrontPoint discovered that CDOs were dogshit by themselves.
@Ryan B tsla margins improved 300 basis pts, cash flow positive $300M this qtr, deliveries higher within a backdrop of declining motor vehicle market... shanghai ahead of schedule. good luck steve.
"Jody " tsla is YEARS ahead in battery tech/production scaling, autonomous driving, and recharge networks. by the time competition catches up... elon musk will no doubt revealing other head turning innovations. btw, EV share of overall car market at the moment is tiny. projections show, once battery production costs equal and eventually undercut engine production costs (less than 5 years), EV sells really sky rocket. tsla will be the MAIN beneficiary.
Because he is famous just because he got lucky shorting the Housing market, notice they don't mention anything else when they introduce him. He is shorting Tesla, I would not call him very smart.
@@marioxmariox He is smart. The Tesla short is something he joked about before, for being such an unoriginal "mainstream" short (the kind of short he is not known for; being usually contrarian himself). What he understands most is banks and the financial system at a more macro level. I think he is typically net long and his shorts are only hedges (that hopefully also pay) against his longs. But I agree with you. And he's too disagreeable and rant-ish (does not suffer fools) to become a viable candidate.
@@marioxmariox Shorting Tesla is extremely smart the stock tanks yearly. And he didn't get lucky he used math instead of greed to play the market in 08. That's financial genius.
As a real estate guy this is dead on Zillow and other too big to fail corporate investors have entered market and paid too much for properties It can cost 150 to 350 to get a basic cleaning or even a light bulb changed. That is if you can find someone to do it Looking forward to buying foreclosures in the spring
"Well, I think, you know, with respect to Tesla, he likes to pull a schtick every quarter. Because there's four things that matter with Tesla: there's deliveries, there's the margins, there's net income, and there's cashflow. And at least for the last two quarters, what he likes to do is tweet that they're doing very very well on the deliveries, and the stock tends to go up, and then at least last quarter, the other three variables are terrible, and the stock comes down. So, I don't know why that's allowed, but that's, he's played this game again, where he's tweeting how great the deliveries are. We'll see how great the rest of the earnings are." TSLA since earnings, where "all four variables" rocked it: +28,7% Hope his short position wasn't too leveraged. ;)
I hope his short position on Tesla WAS leveraged to hell. Same with all the other shorts. Sure Elon has missed some targets BUT he has a habit of delivering on his vision in the end. These guys probably don't believe Space-X crushed NASA in deliveries to outer space. They believed DEMAND for Model 3 was dead while the backlog actually increases. It's like saying the marketplace for Toyota RAV4's is saturated and everybody who ever wanted one has got it already. Apparently, that's not the case, and oh by the way, the take rate for the Hybrid Version of the RAV4 is way higher than Toyota forecast. The marketplace is changing and these guys live in the past rather than looking to the future. I currently own another brand of hybrid vehicle and will NEVER go back to anything less, ie a purely fossil fueled car. Next step will either be a Plug-In Hybrid or perhaps a full EV although the economics and infrastructure are still not quite there yet.
Tesla is basically a pretty unhealthy company. They make no profit and actually produce major losses each year. They have a hype, a following and an idea for the future, but that is only able to survive as long as outside investing keeps flowing in to keep the lights on.
I admire this guy, but today 2 month after this interview, he lost on the short positions with Tsla 67%, and Zillow 48%. Perhaps in 2020 this two companies will crumble, but even if that´s the case the timing was not correct. So, seems that it is not that easy to understand the many variables the market have, including human erratic and emotional behavior.
His favourite long is up ~30% since this interview. His favourite short (TSLA)... up ~1200%. He said "Some people think I'm a great investor..". Well it turns out those people are as wrong as he was..
@@emmasophiataylor2025 Really, you trade with him? Sorry, but shorting Tesla after the 3rd quarter numbers was not paying attention to what was going on. That's when I started buying.
@@emmasophiataylor2025 Only Tesla actually makes things people want and need. They also have a huge lead on the future of transportation, solar energy storage and production. I'm in long, not to make quick money. If Tesla stock goes way down I'll buy more.
@@richardalexander5758 Hydrogen and nuclear are the way to go. Mercedes and the rest are making better car's they are going to lead the way. The debt is so high the stocks are overbought in a recession Tesla will maybe one of the big companies which will fall.
Somebody has to paint it, Somebody has to pull the carpet....Classic.
4 роки тому
21:15...that's why I love Eisman. He is so real and transparent. I've been saying for years that QE and lower interest rates do nothing but prop up ASSETS prices for the rich. Most of those fiat dollars does not trickle down to the general economy ever.
Steve is right about Tesla's deliveries, margins and profits BUT he does not fully understand the advantages Tesla has in battery technology, full self driving, access to the largest EV market and data driven insurance. If Tesla survives the next year, they will dominate the future.
@@sowrabhkarkala1232 My comment was all about the stock not the car. I'll buy the car in 2021 with the profit I make from the TSLA stock I already own.
I agree with you on that. Tesla stock was a very tough investment from the very begining.. yet, despite that the company managed to expand on all levels and is taking over the market as we speak. . . It's the whole "we go down or we take over" approach. Of course they will have financial issues for the next few years. But i personally believe the company crossed their most dangerous point and with continually increasing public support and market share - it will only continue to grow, despite never ending cash flow issues.. wouldn't buy their stock for dividends of course. But long term is a yes. And to make some money on very predictable price drops.. just like the guest said - every quarterly report drives the price down.. but then of course it creeps back up. I am so waiting for the q3 report in few days so I can buy it again.. just like I did last 2 quarters
on the one hand he says it causes asset prices to go up (inflation ) and then goes on to say money printing causes deflation and its folly to continue doing so an expect a different result. Can someone explain what i missed? thanks
Cerco170 ; I believe his point was the EU, not the Fed, because the US can do something the ECB cannot, and that’s print money. The US has a consolidated, national debt. The EU never did that, thus, each country in the EU is saddled with their own sovereign debt albatross. Precisely why the ECB continues to do QE. Corona bonds will never work.
@9:24. Eisman talks about Tesla. According to Bloomberg: “The electric-car maker earned $1.86 a share in the third quarter, exceeding the most optimistic projection by a wide margin and beating the consensus estimate for a 24-cent loss.” Thank you to all the shorts who are lifting the stock price as they scramble to cover their positions.
@Richard Dixon That's not how S&P inclusion works. There are two primary requirements: 1) The most recent quarter has to have positive net income 2) The sum of the past four quarters' net income must be positive Every quarter does not have to be positive in a row.
Consider he's in the game to make money. If he says Tesla is a good short, maybe people will short it. Each short needs a counterparty: someone who buys long the product. Eisman can wait while the shorts put down the price and he buys them as the counterparty. Price goes up, as he knew it would, making him a bundle while those who shorted lose their shirts.
Myself and other economists saw same in 2005 like this guy. Difference is that he got to play with other people's money.... Next lifetime Im going to dump economics and get into banking/finance. No risk
@@rubearch24 Anyone who says Tesla is short does not know history. How'd Amazon work end up working out? Tesla is a pioneer in a space. They ain't going anywhere
I have the same feeling. He does not want to look ridiculous. If he is shorting Deutsche bank, one of the biggest systemic banks, why is he not seeing danger ahead? Why doesnt he see bigger problem in 0 interest rates in Europe? How about Italian banks? And recent problem with REPO loans in US banks? I do not know, but i do not feel pure honesty here.
It is great that CNBC allows comments and keeps democratic discussion alive. Shame on other networks that close off commenting they are for sure losing viewers.
Tesla was at $257 a share, Zillow at $30.93 during this interview. A broken clock is right twice a day. I wonder if his wife even lets him in the house anymore.
That was before the Telsa stock split, it was $50 mid October 2019. Literally went up over 2,000% from it's all time highs in 2021 and despite the recent crash is still 1,200% up lol
The posed date of 10/15/19 does NOT necessarily correspond with the date when the interview took place. Some UA-cam interview have a mismatch between the two dates that's measured in YEARS. So, it would be nice if someone (hint..especially CNBC Television) were to post in the video or the publisher's comments the interview date.
Zillow up 50%, Tesla up 64% since this interview, think he's still short? Motorola down 5%. Everyone 's guessing if they don't have insider information.
This is financial advice and I never give financial advice: DONT LEAVE DURING THE BEAR. If you don’t want to invest…learn. If you don’t want to learn…build. If you don’t want to build observe. DO SOMETHING…other than leave. There is so much opportunity here. Take advantage!
Just because there are opportunities in the market doesn’t mean you should go in blindly. To understand the potential factors that contribute to your financial growth, I'll advise you to seek the help of a professional.
*ROCHELLE DUNGCA-SCHREIBER* is my portfolio-coach, I found her on Bloomberg where she was featured, I looked up her name on the internet. Fortunately I came across her site and reached out to her, you can verify her yourself.
Funny how they dont interupt this guy, cause he's got a movie of how right he is.
Was
Lol, maybe Dalio needs to have a movie made.
Well he can buy them all
Yet, the irony is.....he is WRONG about Tesla.
@@RotimiOrimoloye I second that.
This is actually one of the most "normal" conversation I've seen on CNBC, not people shouting and trying to raise voice altogether or cut off other people's talking.
That's because Joe was not there
They also are out of their league to go over this guys head. Lol
There's a Hollywood movie as how right he was
@@ThePorschefan exactly 😂
you can tell how much respect he has by how silent everyone is here. they're usually all talking over each other..
Literally the whole world paid for not listening to him. I dont think anyone will doubt him again.
@@miketime4290 I learn more from Steve Eismans throw away comments than all other sources... :)
Notice how they are all mirroring his body language. His hands and posture.
@@miketime4290 no you're thinking of Michael Burry.
Eisman saw it after people had already interacted with Burry and then said "oh yeah 2+2 IS 4!"
Burry saw it a mile away and before anyone else.
They also can't interject because he's talking a bit above them.
"What makes rates go up in QE is beyond my pay grade." Someone give this guy a raise, we gotta figure this shit out.
What makes rates go up is inflation. What causes inflation is an increase in price. Tariffs will do that. Money seeking commodities as a store of value will do that. A devalued USD will do that. A protracted recession/ depression taking supply off the table then followed by helicopter money to the people, not the banks, will instantly inject demand that flows thru into price causing inflation and central banks to increase rates will do that.
@@arterranrenewables7162 If the central bank keeps buying treasuries and increases the price of the bonds - the yields will continue to fall. The problem is the central banks are monetizing the debt and as long as they can continue to fund, which they have an unlimited balance sheet, there's no reason to think that rates will go up. If there are no buyers the Fed will be the buyer/lender of last resort. The only end I see is the dollar eventually hyper inflates to zero like all fiat currency will. It's true value.
@@arterranrenewables7162 thanks
@@happycakes1946 what will take fiats place?
3 things
1. Fear. Interest is a prediction of risk
2. Switch away from Libor changed the calculations involved with average interest rates.
3. Inflation
Refreshing to see a guy, especially one as smart as he clearly is, admit there are things he doesn’t know .
jallalabadreturns that is how you start to get smart in the first place. No bs guy...but it was burry that spotted the bubble first
I lived in America for 5 years, travelled all over the country - never heard anyone say this even once. Land of ego and the ego won't allow it. Was stared in the face and lied to on a daily basis just so the person didn't have to say "I dunno"
Humility is one of the most seldom-used leadership traits. Yet, it goes a long long way in getting people to trust and follow you.
Well may be he was bluffing. Any way this is what gamblers know best
Genuinely smart people usually do.
A BIG Thank You to Steve Eisman for at least mentioning how unfair the current system is to conservative savers who have chosen not to rely primarily on the manipulated markets as they try to plan responsibly for the long run / surprise expenses.
Yes, I have been screwed.
IF you're in long term bonds, you're actually making more than you think due to the increase in price of those bonds. You only get screwed if you hold bonds until maturity.
@@jfort5234 This certainly is bad advice for the average Joe and should only be done by professionals or people, who understand how the bond market and the economic cycle works and how central bank policies interfere with these things. I learned trading from an early retired Goldman Sachs trader and I can tell you, that what you're suggesting is a high risk trade. If you just want to save your money from inflation, you should save in gold and stay away from the stock market, because a recession will easily wipe out 50% of your savings and you don't want to deal with the stress of telling your wife, husband or children, that you just lost half of your savings in a game, that you do not fully understand. Don't buy stocks, if you do not have the ability to predict a recession. If you can predict GDP growth, then go for it, because this enables you to earn money on the way down, too.
@@MarkSass I never implied that you should use long term bonds as a speculative trade. I'm merely pointing out that if you already had long term bonds, then you could sell those bonds and realise a substantial capital gain due to declining rates. Of course you have to figure out what to with the money after that.
@@jfort5234 Ah, ok, well, then I might have read a thing or two into wat you wrote. Haha! I fully agree: one could sell bonds with a profit. :)
"QE is monetary policy for rich people." Brilliant...
Marty Chargin rich: omg that kid made 100,000USD
Rich: (tweaking) this is going to cause inflation
What is QE?
Quantitative Easing
@@MrJpurvis620 money printing
Also goes by the name Austerity
This is like watching a professor talk to a room of primary school teachers.
Great guy
Joey Gee wrong; it’s like the trade talks then saying Nope, striking market FUD
He lost all credibility when he said >>>"I don't see any problem with the banks." Fri could be "black" Fri, with the bank stocks leading the way now that the shorts in the bank stocks all commited hari kari on bank earnings news this week.
Show me on this doll where the primary school teacher hurt you.
Teachers at a clown school
Imagine this guy now...he must be like. "HEY!, HEY!, I SAY WHEN WE SELL!"
He was short Tesla at 250 and it went to 1000$. Still higher than it was before the interview at 350-400. I guess he lost a lot of money on Tesla alone...
PCA Pent He did point out it was ‘hard to short a cult’ and was a minor short, so he knew going in it was risky.
But really, Tesla’s fundamentals are terrible. But not all terrible companies can be shorted- ask Herballife.
@@innosam123 very apt analysis
@@marcusbiller867 he is not that dumb
Even private equity uses stoploss
@@innosam123 It's a cult so most people don't listen/believe/care 😂
“It’s not that bubblelicious ” 1:37😂
Someone put that on a shirt
Different opinions out there so who cares, I Personally think prices are just Right
t-t-t-t-t-tasty, tasty
Get Kesha to write a song.
Eisman should have his own show. His brutality is like a clear fresh glass of water!
I'd love to see him on Joe Rogan's podcast.
@@Jordan-Ramses 100%. But I don't see why he would.
@@thuglifebear5256 - So he can be more famous and get laid more by hotter girls? Why'd he do this tv appearance?
@@Jordan-Ramses Joe Rogan would not understand half the shit Steve is talking about
@@peasley9 you miss the brilliance of JRE. is that everything has to be dumbed down for him so it makes it more accessible for the common man
CNBC, THANK YOU for having Steve Eisman on again!!!!!!!!! +1
“When you are right, speak slowly, don’t shout” to all the listeners
“Speak softly and carry a big stick”
Teddy Roosevelt
@Mgtow Farmer Where's your farm, man?
Steve must be soo bored of being asked 'what's the next big short'
HDFX yes he’s been so tired of the ignorant questions lol and he had to keep going back to explain the basics again and again!
@ Lol with the FED dropping liquidity bombs, Shorts are getting smashed, however as when sentiment is at extremes is the best to take a contrarian view.
@ Not to mention Tesla
Hypercube Jones Motorola solutions is up quite a bit. But yeah his shorts are backwards
He just shorted too early
A really sharp guy on CNBC, what's happening????
Pavel Polyakov they have to put the truth right in front of the public before they pull the carpet from under investors
That way when it happens, the fault is on the very same people who lost, the ones who were not paying attention
@@jennafagerholm4248 I don't know if you noticed but he was wrong on his 2 shorts, tesla almost doubled and zillow went up 50%. They're sticking to their do exactly the opposite as we say to make money, very well.
@@cryptounchained7444 He'll be right, some day. The problem is knowing when
@@cryptounchained7444 Tesla actually jumped 500%:) He lost hundreds of millions:)
But he is getting killed in this market. Shorts, in general, have been decimated.
Is CNBC exposing the truth? I’m confused now 🤦♂️
Lmao! Right!
@@alphabravo3566 thinking the same thing..... the sponsors, JPM, BofA, Wells, ETrade ect... are calling in for heads at CNBC right now
RC ……………….they do this video, to run ,when the economy tanks , here we were on top of the down turn way before, everyone else !!!!!!!!
robbycast I think it’s a very mild way of saying
“Hey there’s a recession on the way” exactly like the guy above said but it’s gonna be way way worse than he says, Im sure of it.
If they say it’s good it’s bad
If they say it’s bad it’s terrible lol
Someone is probably going to get fired for telling the truth.
I've listened to a couple of his Interviews and really respect the brilliance of the guy.
He doesn’t look so brilliant after this a look at what happen to Tesla stock this week.
he literally lucked into his last big short because of a wrong phone call...
The body language of these anchors seems so weird. Are they scared of him ?
They're in awe.
The fact that they shut up when he speaks shows they respect him
It's respect not fear.
That's what they look like when they interview billionaires.
Respect
I like how they actually listened to him most of the time, there's some respect there and humility.
[9:30] Analysts have been shorting TSLA (Tesla) since 2010. In that time, the stock has gone from $19.20 to over $250 this month and the company has evolved from a small startup to a manufacturer of the best selling electric car in the world (far outpacing BAIC and Nissan), the first successful new car company in North America in generations, and is now selling vehicles globally with their Model 3 being in the top 5 of best selling sedans in many international markets; that is, the top selling of all cars, gas and electric, in several markets. These are phenomenal achievements, but, as Mr. Eisman said, one issue with Tesla is production, with the company receiving nearly 110,000 orders last quarter and only able to deliver less than 100,000. It is also difficult to disagree with Mr. Eisman that Elon Musk's moves are frequently incomprehensible in light of financial markets, but when stepping back and taking the long view, the trajectory of the company has been positive.
The stock price is the problem! It's currently at $330 and that's tremendously overpriced for a relatively small car manufacturer. It doesn't grow naturally with it's business numbers its growth is generate because of the hype around Elon Musk. I wouldn't short Tesla because people are greedy idiots but I wouldn't invest in it either.
I believe he meant he was shorting in the short term, like wife the next month
R8x they have the market cap of the two other largest car companies, combined.
I love this guy. Eisman is so transparently honest. Everyone ought to be listening to people like Eisman and Burry, analysts whose ideas are upheld and reinforced by simple fundamentals.
I learn more from Steve Eismans throw away comments than all other sources... :)
Even though it isn't Steve Eisman's style, it would be awesome if he had a podcast.
A rare occurrence that Americans are not talking over each other and listening for a change
Michael Burry was my next door neighbor growing up in San Jose. He was the real character who predicted the crash.
I don't live in San Jose and I predicted a crash !
Borrow money with no money down ? Buy a house and it goes up so you take the profit and buy two more houses. And if it goes down in price you walk away and leave the problem with the bank ???? What crazy Bank agrees to that deal ? And who would say no ?? You end up with 20 year old hair stylists owning 4 properties and then walking away from the loans .
Who could not predict that ??
( All of Wall Street for a start !!!!! )
Blinky Blonk what’s the next big short (or long) in your opinion
@@nofurtherwest3474 if there was a way to short college loans that could be the next one. the government and other players have been trying to minimize the damage as much as they can and might even get away with it, but its a delicate situation. i also think crypto might be something to look at. the intrinsic value is almost nothing, and once its fully regulated, the number 1 utility it had goes out the window. its so volatile and seemingly silly to invest large sums of money on it, but i rode the wave myself and am looking to get out in the next year or so after the incredible profits already made. it could go up higher, 100k even, who knows, but its a scary one.
@@markekar6021 Makes sense. Thanks
It’s surprising to see how the conversation go smoothly, normally they just yell at each other
After that, Cramer talks down to the audience like a Muppet, skreiking his high voice and jumping around like the Cookie Monster on crack.
Talking Bread LOL! Cramer was about to blow a gasket as he watched this segment unfold.
Short on Tesla. Uff, that must have hurt since October.
Hurts even more over the last month..... up 35%. triple ouch-ouch-ouch!
He changed his position in time
Serves him right. Don’t short the environment
Zillow too. He's gotta be down big in both.
Bet he's doing better now
Who’s googling “Motorola Solutions” stock price after Steve said he’s long.
yep me too. it's just too expensive for me to buy
HUGE DEBT!
Just witnessed something rare today. A very smart individual with humility.
Still short on TSLA? This guy has the balls of steel, my dudes!
Those shorts liquidated
There is a fine line between bravery and stupidity, shorting Tesla is just plain dumb, whatever happens to them. It's a full on dick move. But hey some ppl like dicks.
This video was published on Oct 16th 2019 when Tesla stock was trading around $50. Today it is trading at $805. Wonder how much Steve would have lost on that short and i'm pretty sure he would have doubled down on his short over time.
I followed his shorts now im living under a bridge, thanks dude.
Trust me TSLA will dip big time even more than Thursday 3rd September...
@@ahsonyousef4636 When this guy was shorting it was like 1000% below the price it is now , and yes I have been shorting after it hit 2000.
@@ahsonyousef4636 Should we trust you? TSLA is massacring the shorts.
Holy crap, Steve was right about Zillow's dangerous business model.... I am so so impressed.
Yeah but his short position got squeezed timing was off. Same with tesla
lol he was off and wrong what the hell you talking about.
This didn’t age well: Zillow has doubled and Tesla more than tripled.
He is betting against them long term
There is still time for Tesla.
Musk is now involved in a scandal in NY with SolarCity.
And if you think Tesla is immune, SolarCity has kept its book closed from a third party accounting firm to see how much Teslas funds are intermingled.
And you can bet they are.
How is tesla looking now? No fundamental value+big price spike=disaster. They have literally NEVER made money over a year.
Finally someone who sees it. It is the overcapacity, or said otherwise, there is lack of demand in the real economy. Borrowers are maxed out and savers have no income to spend, so demand is dwindeling. Hence the contracting ISM.
Unenployment will shoot up in the coming months. We are already in recession, the numbers just don´t show it yet, and there is nothing the FED can do about it and they know it.
It can offer credit, but it can´t force people and companies to borrow.
The money is all fake no matter what anyone says.
question: all this QE has to produce devaluation of the currency, doesn´t it? will the dollar go into a crisis where it will lose a lot of value ? (I´m prietty ignorant on this topics, I´m trying to learn)
Cssaarr the demand for dollar is always high so probably not
Nice to see CNBC listen to and respect a guest. The morning shows have become unwatchable for this reason.
Lol Eisman should have just played himself in the movies
Doom Sheep LOL because if he does say that on national TV he causes a fucking bank run! Not rocket science is it?
@@JohnSmith-lj4dd Totally right. If you're smart enough, you know it doesn't feel good when this guy is shorting the 3rd biggest European bank that had its stocks already shrinked by 97% in 10 years. Also he mention the ECB to be full of sh*t and he's right
@@agentsmith2798 actually that part of the movie is fictional. There is no Jared Vennett in real life, and no one called pitching an idea by accident. FrontPoint discovered that CDOs were dogshit by themselves.
Do you think there is going to be another big short
Whale: idk (press sell)
Whale: well that just happened
Steve Carrell should get an award, he really seems like this guy.
I thought the complete opposite.
I thought he was played by the Christian Bale?
"Still short Tesla" Ouch!!!!
You can only laugh at people who want to bet against the future like that
@Ryan B
tsla margins improved 300 basis pts, cash flow positive $300M this qtr, deliveries higher within a backdrop of declining motor vehicle market... shanghai ahead of schedule. good luck steve.
Gippo50 forever short TSLA
"Jody "
tsla is YEARS ahead in battery tech/production scaling, autonomous driving, and recharge networks. by the time competition catches up... elon musk will no doubt revealing other head turning innovations.
btw, EV share of overall car market at the moment is tiny. projections show, once battery production costs equal and eventually undercut engine production costs (less than 5 years), EV sells really sky rocket. tsla will be the MAIN beneficiary.
Boy was he wrong about Tesla!!
This is the best conversation I have seen on CNBC in a long time
He’s not allowed to say what he really wants to say, otherwise panic would ensue.
Michael MGTOW wait whut? Nice way to put the news to your hands, if you interpret it as you want theres no point in watching this dude
@@sheggle He's a MGTOW he swallowed the 'red pill' now everything has a deeper meaning...lol
Michael MGTOW yeah he said the stock market was not overvalued. We all know he is lying here
One of the best guest they’ve ever had on the show!!
That's cause you like like Steve Carell and he played this guy. Otherwise he's just another sensible guy.
Well he was right…two years later Zillow Offers collapsed. Overpaid for homes and underestimated how hard it is to find good work. Total bust.
Why doesn't this guy run for president? I'd vote for him if he ran, and I was American.
Because he is famous just because he got lucky shorting the Housing market, notice they don't mention anything else when they introduce him. He is shorting Tesla, I would not call him very smart.
@@marioxmariox He is smart. The Tesla short is something he joked about before, for being such an unoriginal "mainstream" short (the kind of short he is not known for; being usually contrarian himself). What he understands most is banks and the financial system at a more macro level. I think he is typically net long and his shorts are only hedges (that hopefully also pay) against his longs. But I agree with you. And he's too disagreeable and rant-ish (does not suffer fools) to become a viable candidate.
Business do not know how to run governments. Why hire a doctor to act as your lawyer?
@@marioxmariox Shorting Tesla is extremely smart the stock tanks yearly. And he didn't get lucky he used math instead of greed to play the market in 08. That's financial genius.
@@daveb2759 Who'd you vote for? I'm assuming you voted for Hillary Clinton then?
Awesome quote: "What causes interest rates to go up in a world of QE is above my pay grade."
When I heard him say this I laughed out loud.
I for one am glad the guy with no skills is "with" Steve on Deutsche Bank.
Replace them all with Eisman - at least he knows what he’s talking about and not just talking filler
As a real estate guy this is dead on
Zillow and other too big to fail corporate investors have entered market and paid too much for properties
It can cost 150 to 350 to get a basic cleaning or even a light bulb changed. That is if you can find someone to do it
Looking forward to buying foreclosures in the spring
He was great in the office
It’s amazing that Steve explains everything in simple words... if people still don’t understand, really hopeless and helpless
"Well, I think, you know, with respect to Tesla, he likes to pull a schtick every quarter. Because there's four things that matter with Tesla: there's deliveries, there's the margins, there's net income, and there's cashflow. And at least for the last two quarters, what he likes to do is tweet that they're doing very very well on the deliveries, and the stock tends to go up, and then at least last quarter, the other three variables are terrible, and the stock comes down. So, I don't know why that's allowed, but that's, he's played this game again, where he's tweeting how great the deliveries are. We'll see how great the rest of the earnings are."
TSLA since earnings, where "all four variables" rocked it: +28,7%
Hope his short position wasn't too leveraged. ;)
I hope his short position on Tesla WAS leveraged to hell. Same with all the other shorts. Sure Elon has missed some targets BUT he has a habit of delivering on his vision in the end. These guys probably don't believe Space-X crushed NASA in deliveries to outer space. They believed DEMAND for Model 3 was dead while the backlog actually increases. It's like saying the marketplace for Toyota RAV4's is saturated and everybody who ever wanted one has got it already. Apparently, that's not the case, and oh by the way, the take rate for the Hybrid Version of the RAV4 is way higher than Toyota forecast. The marketplace is changing and these guys live in the past rather than looking to the future. I currently own another brand of hybrid vehicle and will NEVER go back to anything less, ie a purely fossil fueled car. Next step will either be a Plug-In Hybrid or perhaps a full EV although the economics and infrastructure are still not quite there yet.
Can we get Steve again on the show? I'd like to see how is he? Does he have some financial trouble at the moment? Did he close his shorts?
she said "idiosyncratic" to sound smart at 2:36
He's short Tesla and Zillow? If he is still holding those positions, he is having a very hard time right now.
He's already covered his short on TSLA
Tesla is basically a pretty unhealthy company. They make no profit and actually produce major losses each year. They have a hype, a following and an idea for the future, but that is only able to survive as long as outside investing keeps flowing in to keep the lights on.
@@tomm7354 They have hype, a following and make a great product. Reminds me of the iPhone in 2007.
I admire this guy, but today 2 month after this interview, he lost on the short positions with Tsla 67%, and Zillow 48%. Perhaps in 2020 this two companies will crumble, but even if that´s the case the timing was not correct. So, seems that it is not that easy to understand the many variables the market have, including human erratic and emotional behavior.
@@blabla22222 Zillow stock price is still double what it was the day of the interview… I’d say he got it wrong. TSLA is 5X
Zero interest rate and Covid QE pumped lot of money into the economy. Business is still about making an operating profit. Eventually it catches up.
The guy is an absolute monster!
This didn't age well, Zillow is up 50% and TSLA is up 70%.
It's still young. We will know for sure in a year or two... or three...
His favourite long is up ~30% since this interview. His favourite short (TSLA)... up ~1200%. He said "Some people think I'm a great investor..". Well it turns out those people are as wrong as he was..
So far short sellers have lost over 8 billion betting against Tesla.
Damn i lost a lot of money because of this guy haha
@@emmasophiataylor2025 Really, you trade with him? Sorry, but shorting Tesla after the 3rd quarter numbers was not paying attention to what was going on. That's when I started buying.
@@richardalexander5758 Tesla is overvalued like everything else but that doenst matter everything is going up :)
@@emmasophiataylor2025 Only Tesla actually makes things people want and need. They also have a huge lead on the future of transportation, solar energy storage and production. I'm in long, not to make quick money. If Tesla stock goes way down I'll buy more.
@@richardalexander5758 Hydrogen and nuclear are the way to go. Mercedes and the rest are making better car's they are going to lead the way. The debt is so high the stocks are overbought in a recession Tesla will maybe one of the big companies which will fall.
Bang on for Zillow but I wonder how painful his short on Tesla was!
“Still short $TSLA” incurs pain? For those watched “big shorts”, pain and glory/money
2022: He was very wrong on TSLA, but very right on Zillow - he's right. The internet people - CAN'T always do real-world businesses
The Tesla call was a slap in the face.
Facepalm is more like it
Meanwhile Zillow is still over 50 despite it being 30 back then. The story of Tesla is even worse. Over 830 now and around 258 back then
Somebody has to paint it, Somebody has to pull the carpet....Classic.
21:15...that's why I love Eisman. He is so real and transparent. I've been saying for years that QE and lower interest rates do nothing but prop up ASSETS prices for the rich. Most of those fiat dollars does not trickle down to the general economy ever.
Steve is right about Tesla's deliveries, margins and profits BUT he does not fully understand the advantages Tesla has in battery technology, full self driving, access to the largest EV market and data driven insurance. If Tesla survives the next year, they will dominate the future.
Then buy the car don't buy the stock ..there's a difference ..just because u like the product doesnt mean the stock will do well
@@sowrabhkarkala1232 My comment was all about the stock not the car. I'll buy the car in 2021 with the profit I make from the TSLA stock I already own.
@@HomesteadEngineering really where did u speak about profit cashflows or valuations?
@@HomesteadEngineering I'm no Tesla hater ..I love their cars but not a fan of the stock and the corporate governance in the company
I agree with you on that. Tesla stock was a very tough investment from the very begining.. yet, despite that the company managed to expand on all levels and is taking over the market as we speak. . . It's the whole "we go down or we take over" approach.
Of course they will have financial issues for the next few years. But i personally believe the company crossed their most dangerous point and with continually increasing public support and market share - it will only continue to grow, despite never ending cash flow issues.. wouldn't buy their stock for dividends of course. But long term is a yes. And to make some money on very predictable price drops.. just like the guest said - every quarterly report drives the price down.. but then of course it creeps back up.
I am so waiting for the q3 report in few days so I can buy it again.. just like I did last 2 quarters
on the one hand he says it causes asset prices to go up (inflation ) and then goes on to say money printing causes deflation and its folly to continue doing so an expect a different result.
Can someone explain what i missed? thanks
TSLA short aged well these past 10 days lol
Maybe then but shorts were squeezed to make a fine juice for breakfast this morning coming into 2020 (never had a position in TSLA)
Jack Palmer this comment is really old, but if I remember correctly I was being sarcastic after the first 25% gap up in early November.
Jack Palmer it might have been even more than 25%. Can’t remember the exact number, but it was comical to me at the time
Could listen to this guy all day long
He whips out the surprised pikachu face every time someone asks him a question.
This guy is one of the most smartest people EVER on CNBC! or EVEN IN THE WHITE HOUSE!!!! D.C. TOO!
Did nobody tell him that the Fed is doing REPO to infinity and beyond. Full blown qe4, fed expanding balance sheets faster than ever before.
Cerco170 ; I believe his point was the EU, not the Fed, because the US can do something the ECB cannot, and that’s print money. The US has a consolidated, national debt. The EU never did that, thus, each country in the EU is saddled with their own sovereign debt albatross. Precisely why the ECB continues to do QE. Corona bonds will never work.
Z was at $32.04 10/14/19 and today it's at $111.92. TSLA was at $51.39 and today it's at $641.76 12/08/20
well he got burned pretty damn hard this week.
ZG +6%
TSLA +27%
Tom good thing any seasoned investor isnt looking at it in a weekly outlook
Zachary Lucas good thing you can't read and not make it seem like i stated that possible implication.
Tom who cares about this week then?
Zachary Lucas active traders. google it or something.
you should be fine with your "long thesis" on your acorns account.
He is talking about value and longer term investing and not trading
That tesla short has got to hurt right about now
Did Steve Eisman just say Bublelicious 1:36 I’m dead lmao.
@9:24. Eisman talks about Tesla. According to Bloomberg: “The electric-car maker earned $1.86 a share in the third quarter, exceeding the most optimistic projection by a wide margin and beating the consensus estimate for a 24-cent loss.” Thank you to all the shorts who are lifting the stock price as they scramble to cover their positions.
@Richard Dixon That's not how S&P inclusion works. There are two primary requirements:
1) The most recent quarter has to have positive net income
2) The sum of the past four quarters' net income must be positive
Every quarter does not have to be positive in a row.
Tesla up 100% 2 months after this interview.
I heart tesla
Goes to show there is a bubble, it’s just how big it will get before it bursts.
@@TKinfinity01 exactly
Consider he's in the game to make money. If he says Tesla is a good short, maybe people will short it. Each short needs a counterparty: someone who buys long the product. Eisman can wait while the shorts put down the price and he buys them as the counterparty. Price goes up, as he knew it would, making him a bundle while those who shorted lose their shirts.
2 could be go to 6 before coming to 0 ..
this is one of my favourite clips finance-wise, good tips to look at and you can tell that what he says goes completely over their heads
Myself and other economists saw same in 2005 like this guy. Difference is that he got to play with other people's money.... Next lifetime Im going to dump economics and get into banking/finance. No risk
Very smart guy. Gets his point across very well.
Anyone notice the anchors all mirroring Steve's body language?? Hand position, sitting posture. He's in charge.
They look like kids in class..
They are clowns
Eisman looks like James Wood’s long lost twin brother
😂😂😂😂
1:36 bubblicious? he straight trollin them.
That TSLA short has not aged well as of today. Still, interesting points.
Neither did his Zillow call.
Tesla is long
@@rubearch24 Anyone who says Tesla is short does not know history. How'd Amazon work end up working out? Tesla is a pioneer in a space. They ain't going anywhere
He's holding back
I have the same feeling. He does not want to look ridiculous. If he is shorting Deutsche bank, one of the biggest systemic banks, why is he not seeing danger ahead? Why doesnt he see bigger problem in 0 interest rates in Europe? How about Italian banks? And recent problem with REPO loans in US banks? I do not know, but i do not feel pure honesty here.
It's not so much what he is saying as much as what he's NOT saying
It is great that CNBC allows comments and keeps democratic discussion alive. Shame on other networks that close off commenting they are for sure losing viewers.
He looks like the guy in Ocean's13 who is the secret hotel review guy who gets wrecked and then wins the slots at the end
100% FIVE DIAMONDS AWARD I think it was. Poor guy lol
Lmao he does
Tesla was at $257 a share, Zillow at $30.93 during this interview. A broken clock is right twice a day. I wonder if his wife even lets him in the house anymore.
That was before the Telsa stock split, it was $50 mid October 2019. Literally went up over 2,000% from it's all time highs in 2021 and despite the recent crash is still 1,200% up lol
Wonder how is his TSLA short position feels now?
hahaha, that's exactly what I wanna know too.
The posed date of 10/15/19 does NOT necessarily correspond with the date when the interview took place. Some UA-cam interview have a mismatch between the two dates that's measured in YEARS. So, it would be nice if someone (hint..especially CNBC Television) were to post in the video or the publisher's comments the interview date.
You can tell it's on or around the posted date by the Tesla and Zilllow charts they put on screen during the interview
Majority of us will be priced out of living even basics will be out of reach.
Zillow up 50%, Tesla up 64% since this interview, think he's still short? Motorola down 5%. Everyone 's guessing if they don't have insider information.
Stick with Motorola. Huge moat, great security software, huge backlog, great balance sheet, under the radar play!
Boy did he blunder on shorting Tesla. Has doubled in price since this video
How do we know he didn’t short at 350 and exit at 300?
Don’t short the environment
“I’m short your HOUSE!” ~G. Lippmann (Best line in the book.) 😄
Profit in 2019 = How much of your future you can borrow.
I think that's been the case for at least 3-4 years.
Since 2008
Good luck with your Telsa short Eisman. Today Tesla up nearly 20%.