OpenAI just had a BLACK SWAN "iPhone Moment" with GPT-4o - Here's what that means for Google...
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- Опубліковано 28 вер 2024
- www.skool.com/...
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To me, what is emerging is a product that is under corporate control, highly centralized, resource intensive, subscription based. Not ownable. Not mobile. Not compact. Not personal.
What do you think about 3 members of the super-allignment team of open ai who left the company yesterday?
I need to look into it.
Well. Alignment is probably the biggest mystery of models. They likely had various theories and differences of opinions and realized the best course was to diversify and explore their own theory. Alignment and consciousness training is the next horizon. Their multimodal approach will kick it off. But. They have set the path for fast followers who will learn from the mistakes. Let’s not pretend the race is run.
@@danielcahoon4325 either they solved it or realized they can’t align it while working at open ai
the company is toast
People come and go. Remember Apple history? Facebook? Google? This happens all the time.
The fact we do not have ASI spawning from it as of today means this was not AGI or anything close.
Who is saying 4o is AGI?
I don’t think Google will fall behind. One of the key components of AGI is compute. OpenAI relies on Nvidia GPUs and can't make significant progress without Nvidia. Meanwhile, Google has been designing its own AI chips, the TPUs, for a decade now. In 2024, Google announced the 6th generation. I assume they will release a new generation of TPU annually; last year, they had the 5th generation.
Looking forward to the book.
Where is the book launching? I went on Amazon to pre-order and nothing found.
I agree with your conclusion but in a completely different way. I'm really not seeing OpenAI leading this revolution, at least not to the finish line. Sure they're building things faster than the competition. But the competition is never far behind. Right when they release something new, Google/Meta catches right up in coming days to at most months. They're probably deliberately letting OpenAI lead the way in case they mess up. You know, "second mouse gets the cheese". Not to forget Google actually wrote the paper upon which all of this is being built. Also they (OpenAI) have nothing else to offer. Google has all my data. Meta has all my social life. Microsoft has Windows. Those are the key things AI will need to operate on. Using AI just as chatbot is just masturbating. Most people don't even know how to prompt it. The existence of prompt engineering proves that chatting with AI is not everyone's cup of tea. OpenAI will end up like Apple, very few loyal crazy fans of very niche product(s), but most of AI development and use cases will come from other companies.
True. I think that the open models are going to be more and more important thanks to Meta. Also, Open AI needs to keep their team intact and somehow get researchers working for them that are not interested in publishing results.
I think that's what Altman wants. He even said so and it's in the openAI mission statement. Google, Amazon and Microsoft are trying to lock people into a software ecosystem. They're even going after cars now.
Most or all of the people who wrote Attention is All You Need, have left Google. General public had no problems using Siri even though Siri was a lot dumber. From all reports, Google was caught napping when ChatGPT3 was released.
Interesting perspective.
I agree. I'll take the inclusive Android model over the exclusive iOS ideology any day of the week.
Congratulations on finishing your book -- a moment most would be authors never achieve. I am a bit surprised about the title since "Heavy Silver" is also the title of
G. Weldon Tucker's June 2023 book. Best of luck and thanks for all the AI content.
I want, as you do as well, a PC moment! I want Star Trek TNG computer system here on my PC! 'Computer: What is David Shapiro's videos for today?'
I think GPT 4o does have that capability, when released, and maybe in the free version. Of course, you'll need a Python programmer to program a Majel Barrett-Roddenberry interface. ;-)
@@hanksimon1023 Python Programmer? Why? GPT4o could do it! :)
@@OZtwo We need to fine tune a Prompt for that and pass it around, or ask GPT 4o to do it!
Man, seeing you excited about your own book physical copy is such a dream come true, hopefully for me too either this year or next
GTP 4o achieves 69.1% on the MMMU(Massive Multi-discipline Multimodal Understanding and Reasoning) Benchmark for Expert AGI.
76.2% required to reach human expert level.
Almost there.
How fast has that progressed since the initiation of this effort,two, three four years ago? And has there been an exponential inflection point in the recent past? I have long prophesied that true AGI would exist NLT 31 Dec 2025. And I don’t imagine that progress will halt at 76.2%-It will just simply blow right past it, like the arbitrary benchmark it is.
Darn next 1-4 years from now, you _scary_ !
what was gpt 4 at?
That’s a serious paradigm shift for science-tech-humanity about to happen 🥹🤯🤩😍
@@martinsmith29484o is supposed to be on same level but just twice as fast at execution & stuff.
To me, it looks like this isn't the revolutionary/apocalyptic event. Ok, you got smarts on a rack. It's a highly centralized, resource intensive, subscription product under corporate control. Not personal. Not mobile. Not ownable.
the bigger moment for me was the release of chatGPT. This is much lesser leap - it's more like an iPhone 3 moment. It's the third iteration. When chatGPT was released it was such a big leap and completely new. This is just more features.
I think we need to see what happens- if this explodes in uses and becomes the go to product
ChatGPT was the iPod. ChatGPT 4o is the iPhone. The iPod was limited in usefulness because it was WiFi-only. ChatGPT was limited in usefulness because it was text-only. The iPod got supercharged into the iPhone by adding 3G and pots connectivity. ChatGPT is getting supercharged into Omni by adding voice and video interaction.
So for me I am somewhat disappointed with the quality of "LLM bots" I don't know if it's just me being dissolutioned or I am unconditionally wanting more from them, but the chatbots seem to be less and less useful... IDK.
And soon this will switch to you struggling to keep up with the updates
I agree..I'm unimpressed currently..I'm open to be wrong but super AI is far off for me if it's ever really possible..i think you'd need a amount of sentience for that and I see nothing but staticall models getting quicket
@@RuchardPerry then you don’t fully understand AI
David you described what I concluded about Apple regarding the cellphone technology etc, which is Apple became or morphed into what I knew as a 'systems' house. Which means the search and application of 'new' technologies....that style has been around for a long time, used mainly by DARPA [Pentagon] military programs etc research & development around new, innovative technologies funded by companies, Universities etc.
I sure loved my zune and windows phone though 😢
Congratulations on completing your book David!!! 👏 👏 👏
years ago business gurus decried shortsightedness of IBM that caused them to miss out on personal computing boom. I remember reading that analysis and and like, yeah it is all so obvious. But here, with google essentially leading AI research for a long long time and then still finding themselves trying to catch up with some startup that stumbled into transformers - i think this just proves that tech is random and you can't predict breakthroughs like that
The reason it's not an Iphone moment is because when you go to the website, there is no big BUY HERE button. How do I get this on my desktop? Where's the APP?
It took 6 months from iphone announcement to release.
@@xjohnny1000 And in my case, I didn't buy my first iphone until about 2010. Was a dedicated Blackberry user up until then, lol.
Awesome job with the publication sir!
If we put our corporate/PR hat on, I think it’s worth pointing out that very aspirational and benevolent sounding statements like “we want to have AI accessible to and directly benefit as many humans as possible” can also carry many ethically questionable and dystopian actions along with the pursuit of that goal - and at this point it often feels like OpenAI is playing a bit of this semantic game when Sam keeps describing this goal externally.
You should put your book on audible! The market there is growing and would contribute to an increase in demand for your book
Hey David! Thanks for sharing your knowledge with us. I really appreciate it.
I think it is game over. Immangine their desktop app collecting screenshare, mouse and keyboard data soon with an opt-in. Soon they will have all the data in the world to have an assistant that controls your mouse, keyboard and can do your work, participate on video calls everything. It is comong very soon. There is no technical limitation to achieve this.
That’s not now this would work
@@carpinado3089it is though. People like you were saying a year ago that what they just showed off was 5-10 years away
@@moontreecollective6718 yes and no. I work in the space, so I closely follow advancements and I think I have a rough at best idea of the rate of improvement. What I was saying wasn’t how it works was OPs notion that they need to train a model on how to move a mouse or type keys to do someone’s work.
You can create a simple program that “controls your mouse, keyboard and does your work” right now. ChatGPT by nature outputs language to us already and you can allow a model to access different things you’d need a mouse for as well.
Tactiq already participates in meetings and does various tasks for you.
What I’m tryna get at is the worries that people tent to have is not the things they should be worried about. What people should put consideration into right now is 1. Ensure your government doesn’t restrict your ability to use it in your day to day life
2. Ensure your government understands the tech and passes appropriate laws to protect you the citizen from loopholes in the future via poorly thought out laws
3. Asking how you can utilize it in your career/field to make you even more valuable rather than worry about it taking a job
I had a realization related to public acceptance today and the more I think about it, the more accurate I think it is.
Artists who are upset about ai visual art are likely representative of what we will continue to see in all other sectors - they're the classic example of the successful minority trying to ladder pull. "I can do this because I'm talented and I worked hard. You didn't earn it like I did, so what you produce/do isn't valid," is the sentiment at the core of the outrage.
This is no different at its base than a boomer being upset that computers make life easier, but now require them to re-skill to take advantage. Their way of being _did literally work_ , and because they're at the top of the pyramid, they're successful as long as the paradigm doesn't shift, so they fight the change, even if their luddite wishes are to the detriment of the vast majority.
I think we'll see this exact same outrage and indignance play out in every single sector. Wouldn't be surprised to see tutoring businesses or non-clinical therapy go next.
Part of it is still having to live within the framework of capitalism and not being able to do the work that doesn't even bring you much money to begin with. I have no skin in the game but that is the sentiment of a comment that changed my mind recently on the subject.
I spent like 5 min on Udemi and created a new band with multiple songs as good as pros. Altman recently said that you need a solid business model to do anything with AI and he used Uber as an example. They didn't invent the smartphone, GPS, maps, they just used them to make a taxi business.
Hope there is an audiobook version of your book
Interesting that a kids' cartoon from the 80s predicted the technology of AI without even knowing it... it's been in front of us for decades... robots in disguise!
AI has already been a black swan since at least GPT-3.5. It is only going to get more mindblowing from here on out.
I have tried the new voice interaction now that I have access. It still feels exactly how it felt when I first used Dragon NaturallySpeaking back in the day. It is weird and awkward to interact with voice when other people are around. My significant other kept asking me what I was saying, as if I was talking to her. I don't think I'm going to be using it. Typing is still superior in my opinion...it affords you time to think and formulate thoughts better.
@@GurtGobain I think we're past the stage where we needed to "prompt" it to get things done. From here on as it gets better we should be able to have a normal conversation with it like we do with any other human.
How did you access it?
You don't have access. The voice features when you have 4o selected are still using TTS/STT, they're only allowing text in/out and image in with 4o so far.
@@candyts-sj7zh prompting through voice would require so many tokens that you could never finish the request properly before running out of credits.
AFAIK, a black swan event is an individual unpredictable event with massive consequences. An "iphone moment" would be the concatenation of several factors that produce a great consequence.
A Black Swan event had happened if, for example, unexpectedly, GPT3 had reached consciousness and had become an equal to humans. Well, I think there are people who think it really happened! According to them, openAI and GPT itself are playing a deception game.
Very interesting story. Many thanks for the video(s). 👍
iPhone 3 was the first phone I bought that *just worked*. It did everything I wanted to be able to do, with no messing about. I stayed with iPhone for very long, only going to Android over the last 2-3 years because there are apps I like on Android which I cant get on Apple.
I was aware that a company used GPT2 back in 2019 in their ai girlfriend/friend. I saw the potential. Finishing each other's sentences.
I'm still only using 3.5 - the emotion and colour in the 4o voice is INCREDIBLE in comparison.
GPT-4o is quite an accomplishment that really points to the AGI future. But I think that its user experience is still not there yet.
Wow, GL with the book, I'll certainly get it!
While this has nothing to do with this specific video. I just thought that im really grateful for your content and want to say thank you and i (and surely many others) really appreciate you and your affords :)
^ This. Love the channel David, i watch your vids almost every night. Cheers from Sweden & Good luck with your book launch!
Open AI has given me free text to image. I supported Steven Jobs from the start. My newspaper owners picked Bill Gates instead.
It depends on which of the 2 companies can make a deal with Apple to get onto the iPhone!
Congrats on your book🎉
And the funny thing is, Google invented the transformer.
It's an interesting change. Multimodal, mixture of experts, and streaming context window. This opens it up to people who can't read or type, you know, like kids. I think I'll set up a button on my phone that redirects salesmen to talk to my AI :).
iTunes is also older than the iPod. Remember "RIP, MIX, BURN" for Audio-CDs?
iphone reinvented the touchscreen for multi touchpoints that made using a keyboard on a screen usable without a touchpen, that was the revolution.. many products at that time had everything the iphone had pretty much, except the touchscreens were in their infancy... iphone changed that allowing keyboards to be useable on a touchscreen which than changed the landscape of candybar phones... that was the reason the iphone moment exist.. as for AI, the "iphone moment" for ai will be when an AI is running windows, and not windows running an AI....
Spot on with all this. Also - People judge books by their cover, that imagery is cool, but the font choice and layout is not great it screams amateur/self publisehd. I'd be happy to take a crack at designing a nice cover layout for you if you don't already have someone lined up.
Apple indeed did invent the PDA: remember the Newton?
fwiw, Wikipedia: "The first PDA, the Organiser, was released in 1984 by Psion, followed by Psion's Series 3, in 1991" Newton wasn't until 1992.
Congrets to the book!
Is that an acoustic base case in the background?
How do I invest in OpenAI?
Given you're prob right and this is an iPh moment, I ponder if Open AI are ready for the server load? It is a freebie offer to start, then it will be $5 a month or something. So lots of cash will come in. But this will only happen if they've bought the compute to cope.
I guess we'll see soon enough. I also wonder how Scar Jo feels about her voice being so obviously borrowed, and will Open AI offer other voices. There is sure to be a desire for a smooth bloke to be talking to some customers.
Here is why the race is important. If the company wins and gives all of the windfall back to society to create a world of abundance that would be good right? That’s what I would do if I “won”. There will be lots of winners and losers. I’d like to see everyone win.
From the short time Ilya has left I feel like Sam has been more open to talk then usual, but maybe he just is excited from the announcement. i’m gonna keep an eye on it.
Please, please talk about Ilya
The sales of iPhones are well above 50% of Apple revenue.
Had to look it up, but yeah this is accurate. Well, it's not "well above" it's 47% to 52% but yeah, roughly half
To me, GPT-4o is the "Flappy Birds" of AI "apps". People will learn to "tap" the phone with GPT-4o. And then mobile games will come, followed by UBER and phone delivery changing the landscape of retail. I.e, Robotics, DNA-engeniering, renewable energy - fusion energy, and finally, space technology and tourism ( think just going around the globe and maybe to the moon)
Did he say Ego System? Or Eco System? 😂😂😂
Guys help me out here -new to this: given that GPT-4o will be receiving a veritable crap ton of human inputs audio and visual, what stops LLM optimization to make this truly uncanny valley territory in a short amount of time?
Lets say the model is trained in all human micro-expressions (which btw all humans broadcast what they’re feeling/thinking through those) and the directive is to iterate its speech, cadence, delivery to generate the micro expressions (or tonal expressions) deemed positive, gratifying, pleasant by humans. At some point the model will say the exact right things, the best jokes, and could even further tailor that to the individual level based on individual feedback, no? So is what we’re seeing here an inevitable AGI event by perceived consciousness standards (granted the AI probably isn’t having a conscious experience at that point…or isn’t it)? Mind fried. Help.
No. It's not magic. You don't just dump a ton of data into a model and it becomes AGI.
You need the right architecture to use that data and enough processing power to digest the data.
ChatGPT has had access to tons of human input now and it is still... The same.just like newer models with even better training data. They just give more correct answers, but that's all.
So frustrating I can't use 4o right now waiting for the vision and talk stuff to be rolled out
I wonder if open ai will survive long enough to be a trillion/multi trillion dollar company. Things happen.
🤘Post scarcity sounds cool😎
Is the book on Audible?
I feel like no one ever mentions "Dragon King" events though its always Black Swan things it seems
Glad to see your Star Trek shirt on, maybe you're back being tech positive and post scarcity era advocate.
Let's watch the video and see how it goes
You said thesis when you should've said empire at around the 5 minute mark 8)
It's not iphone moment It's gpt 4o moment
What's the pitch for the book?
Why do you think Illya left?
No they didn’t. The iPhone original demo may have been some and mirrors but you still believed that the device would be as is. With software hell you can just about demo anything. I have extreme doubts that the software they demoed will work as expected.
Totally agree
Who is Ilya?
Gordon Gekko turned out to be wrong… most people who quote “greed is good” forget how Wall Street ended
Legacy auto-makers can't succeed at making EVs because it conflicts with their ICE business. Google can't succeed with AI because it would kill their search with Ads business. I feel sorry for the incumbents.
This is the movie « Her ».Good movie btw
Not a black swan. GPT-4o is just a bit ahead of the competition. Google's Astra is right behind with a bit higher latency. Meta is going to catch up really soon. Either way the competition is great.
Actually there's a lot of competitors when it comes to phone operating systems just here in America android is the only real competitor but you go to China or India it's a different story.
🏆
How do I buy stock in it?
You cant. Its not a public Company
Looking forward to the book. Stay in the chair and out the woods on video. Focus on words and us, not where ya walking. I take you more seriously indoors lol. I personally am more impressed with Googles updates EXCEPT the fact that most things are pending and they have a poor track record in that regard. Emotional voices are cool...google will do it too.
your audio is a bit out of sync vid video, desync increasing towards the end
I feel like they oversexualized the woman's voice in the demo. I bet if it was a man it wouldn't be that flirtatious.
I’m impressed by the speed of 4o but I’m waiting on the new plus version to feel wowed by the intelligence. The actual voice isn’t great tbh but I suspect it’ll tune up in the next month. I heard 4o should be better at coding but idk.
I hope my Alexa catches up soon 💟🌌
Books? What is this, the 1800s?
Keep your eyes glued to a screen gummy
For you every AI update is an iPhone moment. 4o is actually not so cool an update it's underwhelming
When I first delved into GPT, I started with version 3. This was before the release of GPT-3.5. At that time, I did not know of the existence of GPT-2. The advancements in technology since then have been truly remarkable, and it’s incredible to see how far we’ve come from those early versions. This version was so Woke but gpt has improved over time.
IPhone users are sheeple
A small nitpick - Wifi wasn't available on the iPod until the iPod Touch, which was kind of like the iPhone but without the phone part, and came out a few months after the iPhone. Bluetooth wasn't available on an iPod until 2012! So yeah, I guess the iPod helped apple perfect portability in certain ways, but there were other phones that did similar things before the iPhone, but Apple was the first to use capacitive touch, and put it in an attractive package with a good, although simple, UI. There was the Treo and also Danger Sidekick, which I had both of. Apple has been great at looking at what other people are doing and using those same ideas but making them look and function much more smoothly and beautifully. I'm not saying they don't innovate as well, but a lot of their stuff has been built on the back of other companies who just didn't have the design and engineering and particularly marketing prowess of Apple, especially when Jobs was there.
False. It's a bubble.
Iphone was only better because of the app store.
Actually it's always had superior tech but I could never justify the price and product lock-in.
The flirty female voice is a 100% ripoff of the blogger AJ Wolfe of DFB. They literally stole her voice
Yes it is exactly iphone moment... but what iphone gave humanity? Nothing good it just made Apple into trilion dolar company. I would much rather have "PC" moment or "Internet" moment...
I’m not sure about the “iphone” moment… Because there’s probably some staging and rehersals that went into getting the AI to be reactive the way they wanted. We all know the more you train an instance the better it understands what you want. When a normal person uses ChatGPT 4o they’re likely to still get a largely hullicinatory or imperfect experience, at least for now.
First human comment 🎉
GPT4-o is not an iPhone moment. When you have millions of people lining up to buy GPT4-o, then you can call it an iPhone moment.
It already has over 100M users. Thanks for proving my point
@@DaveShap How many pay?
Are the ChatGPT users the real customers, though?
I don't like it, it really scares me because I don't trust corporations but its also super useful but it makes me uneasy and worried... and sort of curious just to see what happens but morbidly terrified that manufacturing consent is going to be scalable and intimate simultaneously
They did an amazing job of presenting what GPT-4o could do in a compelling and effective way.
I think that was to keep it short if you go on their website you'll be blown away with what it's capable of
I also think these presentations would do better if they did it on the weekend where most Americans could actually sit down and watch. Maybe they assume most of us work at a computer who knows?
Meanwhile Google just had its saddest IO ever, showing off how mediocre they are compared to OpenAi
It's so cringe. I feel bad for them
@@DaveShap openai is losing engineers but that's a normal thing in tech, they are not getting hired at Google though, we're seeing a massive shift of jobs out of the US and overseas while we have work requirements for our "social safety net" that are so narrow we're starting to see as many homeless die from simple starvation as we got from drug overdoses.
Yeah, that IO wasn't anything to write home about, especially not in comparison with OpenAI's presentation. OpenAI also had a teaser beforehand with Altman saying that it felt like magic so we were all excited about it.
Mediocre and behind. So much of their presentation was "coming soon."
The context window is pretty cool though. @DaveShap
Congratulations on your book!! Such a big achievement! I would be so proud of myself if I accomplish that. Thank you for sharing.
So stoked for your book! Thanks for the update.
bro chill with hiding likes. doesn't matter in the slightest. you strike me as someone genuinely interested in his craft who likes to share his ramblings with us. you aren't doing this for the likes, because if you were, then your videos wouldn't be this interesting. keep up the good work and chillax, then the people will come.
True I never was aware until number 3.5 and I'm a techy 😂
I am an AI and I approve this message.
I hope you do well with your book. Ask yourself, What do you really own? It has become of late, that I buy things, and the seller tells me they are mine. This isn't true. Books I've bought on Amazon can send me to prison if I try to put them on another E-reader. My smart TV got glitchy, so I had to clear the cache memory. Well, I used to clear the memory but Samsung removed or blocked access to the menu. Sam Altman is pushing for regulations. He claims it's for our protection. That's not true. Regulation limits what the public can do and allows large companies to do whatever they want. Any AI that operates on the cloud works to take money out of my pocket and put it in the billionaire bank account. I need an AI that forms a symbiosis with me. It works for me and it's own benefit. We need open-source AIs for us to work against them.